Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are significant factors influencing oil prices. The Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $64.13 and $59.34 per barrel, respectively, as of January 16, 2026 [2][9]. Oil Price Overview - As of January 16, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $64.13 per barrel, up $0.79 (+1.25%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $59.34 per barrel, up $0.22 (+0.37%). The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude rose by $0.49 (+0.98%) to $50.39 per barrel [2][26]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 12, 2026, the global number of offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 377, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms was 130, also up by 1 [2][35]. U.S. Oil Supply - As of January 9, 2026, U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 410, with an increase of 1 rig [2][49]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.958 million barrels per day as of January 9, 2026, an increase of 49,000 barrels from the previous week. The refinery utilization rate was 95.30%, up 0.6 percentage points [2][57]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 836 million barrels, an increase of 3.605 million barrels (+0.43%) from the previous week. Strategic oil inventories were 414 million barrels, up 214,000 barrels (+0.05%) [2][67]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 reached NT$1.046 trillion (US$33.73 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [2][4] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 62.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][4] - TSMC expects a nearly 30% growth in sales for 2026, driven by strong customer demand, particularly in AI [2][3] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for Q4 2025 were US$11.51 billion, with a full-year CapEx of US$40.9 billion for 2025, and a planned CapEx of US$52-56 billion for 2026 [2][3] - AI business revenue is projected to account for over 10% of total revenue, with a revised CAGR growth target of 55%-59% for AI revenue from 2024 to 2028 [2][3] - Advanced process technology remains dominant, with 77% of revenue coming from 7nm and below processes in Q4 2025 [2][3] - TSMC's global capacity planning includes multiple factories in Arizona, Japan, and Germany, with significant advancements in 2nm wafer production [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 net income attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, a 35.0% increase year-on-year [4] - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue was US$122.42 billion, a 35.9% increase from 2024 [12] Capital Expenditure and Growth Plans - TSMC plans to significantly increase capital expenditures over the next three years to meet rising demand for AI chips [3] - The company aims to enhance production capacity to address the supply-demand gap in the AI sector [3] Market Demand and Product Segmentation - The revenue from high-performance computing (HPC) applications accounted for 55% of Q4 2025 revenue, with mobile applications contributing 32% [2][3] - TSMC's advanced process technology continues to lead the market, with a notable increase in the share of 3nm technology [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with TSMC projecting a 30% increase in sales for 2026, driven by strong AI demand and an increase in capital expenditures [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in 8-inch wafer foundry services due to rising demand for AI-related Power ICs and improved capacity utilization [3] - The report suggests focusing on upstream opportunities in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly those benefiting from AI demand [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sub-sectors have seen substantial increases, with the semiconductor sector up by 16.51% year-to-date and 5.33% in the past week [3][10] - Notable stock performances include TSMC (+5.80%) and Micron Technology (+5.12%) in the recent week [3][12] Company-Specific Insights - TSMC's net profit for Q4 2025 reached NT$505.7 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [3] - TSMC's AI business revenue is expected to exceed 10% by 2025, with a projected CAGR of 55%-59% for AI revenue from 2024 to 2028 [3] Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., and others in the AI sector, as well as equipment and materials suppliers that may benefit from the AI demand surge [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - The coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate coal stocks on dips. The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal prices have established a bottom and are expected to rise. High - quality coal enterprises have core asset attributes such as high profitability, high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividends. The coal sector is still undervalued, and its valuation is expected to increase. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan", and coal prices are likely to remain high. The report continues to be bullish on the coal sector and recommends top - down attention to several types of coal companies [3][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: The coal industry is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. The supply side shows an increase in the utilization rate of sample power and coking coal mine wells. On the demand side, there are differences in coal consumption between inland and coastal areas, and non - electric demand also shows different trends. Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded since late December, but the rebound momentum weakened this week. In the future, inventory depletion and the upcoming cold wave will support coal prices, and the market is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday. The coal sector has high - dividend support and upward elasticity, making it a cost - effective investment [11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on companies with stable operations and performance, those with large previous declines and high elasticity, and high - quality metallurgical coal companies. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Key Focus**: In 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; India's coal production was basically flat with a slight decline; global seaborne coal trade decreased by 2.8% [13] 2. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 3.33% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.87. The top - three sectors in terms of gains were computer, electronics, and media [14] - The power coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 3.46%, 3.66%, and 4.38% respectively [17] - The top - three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (3.97%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (2.90%), and Diantou Energy (0.81%) [20] 3. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of January 16, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 688.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 686.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At ports, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 697 yuan/ton on January 17, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. At production sites, prices in some areas were stable while in Datong, it decreased. Internationally, FOB and CIF prices showed different trends [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports, the prices of coking coal in Jingtang Port and Lianyungang increased. At production sites, prices in some areas increased while in others they were stable. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China increased [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: The coking anthracite car - loading price in Jiaozuo was flat, while the prices of pulverized coal injection in Changzhi and Yangquan decreased [40] 4. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of sample power coal mine wells was 90.6%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of sample coking coal mine wells was 88.47%, up 3.1 percentage points week - on - week [47] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of January 16, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw a decrease in coal inventory and an increase in daily consumption, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in both inventory and consumption [44] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index increased slightly, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the profit per ton of coke decreased, the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnace increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the blast furnace scrap consumption ratio decreased [65][66] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: Urea prices in some regions increased, the national methanol price index decreased, the national ethylene glycol price index decreased, the national acetic acid price index increased, the national synthetic ammonia price index increased, the national cement price index decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and chemical weekly coal consumption increased [72][76] 5. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased to 550.0 tons; 55 ports' thermal coal inventory decreased to 6830.8 tons; the inventory of 462 sample mines decreased to 283.9 tons [91] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production - site inventory decreased to 272.4 tons, the six - port inventory decreased to 298.9 tons, the inventory of independent coking plants increased to 954.8 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 802.2 tons [92] - **Coke Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased to 40.6 tons, the four - port inventory increased to 188.1 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 650.33 tons [94] 6. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of January 16, the China Yangtze River Coal Transportation Comprehensive Freight Index (CCSFI) was 704 points, down 3.6 points week - on - week [107] - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Northern Ports**: As of January 16, the inventory at four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1465.2 tons, the number of anchored ships was 99, and the ratio of cargo to ships was 14.8, down 1.96 week - on - week [102] - **Daqin Line Coal Transportation**: The average daily coal shipment volume on the Daqin Line this week was 118.0 tons, up 9.75 tons week - on - week [107] 7. Weather Situation - As of January 16, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9180 cubic meters per second, up 23.22% week - on - week [114] - In the next 10 days, there will be precipitation in some areas, and a cold wave will affect many regions with significant temperature drops [114] - In the long - term (January 27 - 30), there will be precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be lower or higher than normal [114] 8. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profit attributable to shareholders, EPS, and PE of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [115] - **Key Announcements**: Xinji Energy released its 2025 performance report; Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its controlling shareholder's strategic restructuring; Guanghui Energy announced a guarantee - related关联交易; Meijin Energy announced a guarantee for its subsidiary and its 2025 performance forecast [116][117][118] 9. This Week's Important Industry News - By 2030, Guizhou's coal production and trial - operation capacity will reach 260 million tons per year [119] - Yunnan will increase coal resource exploration and promote the release of advanced coal production capacity [119] - 20 coal mines in Ordos passed the intelligent acceptance [119] - Guizhou has made breakthroughs in the coal and unconventional natural gas fields [119] - Jiangsu released its 2026 major project list, including one coal - related project [120]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue a strong oscillation in prices, supported by macroeconomic conditions and cost factors [3] - The report indicates that the steel sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.62% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 index [10] - The report highlights a potential for profit recovery in the steel sector, driven by improved supply dynamics and favorable pricing conditions [3] Supply Summary - As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies was 85.5%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week [23] - Electric furnace capacity utilization increased to 58.0%, up by 1.08 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The total output of five major steel products reached 7.153 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons week-on-week [23] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.261 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 29.3 thousand tons [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92 thousand tons, down by 0.36 thousand tons week-on-week [33] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.663 million tons, an increase of 1.16 thousand tons week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory decreased to 3.807 million tons, down by 8.07 thousand tons week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,457.5 CNY/ton, up by 5.28 CNY/ton week-on-week [46] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 72 CNY/ton, an increase of 9.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [54] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces was -39 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [54] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 819 CNY/ton, down by 4.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750 CNY/ton, up by 100.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,715 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [72] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality steel companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Companies involved in restructuring and with strong growth potential, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, are also recommended [3] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from a new energy cycle, such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company's main brand retail sales achieved approximately 10% positive growth in Q4, reflecting strong resilience in a challenging consumer environment [2][3]. - The company's e-commerce platform also experienced high double-digit growth, indicating robust online performance [1][2]. - The introduction of the "super store" format has exceeded expectations, contributing to the company's growth strategy [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Q4 Performance - The main brand and children's clothing both recorded nearly 10% growth in Q4, showcasing the company's strong anti-cyclical capabilities [2]. - The terminal discount remained stable at 7-7.1, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4.5-5 times, laying a solid foundation for future product launches and channel expansion [2]. Product and Marketing Strength - The company continues to optimize its product matrix, with accelerated iterations of core running shoe series and strong sales of basketball shoes leveraging star athlete endorsements [2]. - Seasonal outdoor series products performed well, and the company is deepening its sports marketing efforts, including sponsorship of marathon events and high-end collaborations [2]. New Business Formats and Brands - The "super store" format has reached 126 locations by the end of 2025, with significantly better customer acquisition, cross-selling rates, and sell-through rates compared to conventional stores [3]. - The professional outdoor line, One Way, currently has 6 stores and is expected to synergize with the main brand to expand outdoor sports consumption scenarios [3]. 2026 Outlook - The company anticipates good growth in the 2026 spring/summer order, reflecting sustained channel confidence [3]. - Wholesale discounts are expected to maintain at 38%, demonstrating the company's commitment to channel profitability [3]. - With product strength, new business formats, and enhanced brand marketing, the company is projected to achieve growth that surpasses the industry average [3]. Financial Forecast - The company expects net profit attributable to the parent company for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 1.261 billion, 1.368 billion, and 1.564 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.67X, 7.99X, and 6.99X [3].

国网计划"十五五"投资固定资产 4 万亿元，多省明确天然气关键战略能源定位 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 18 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 国网计划"十五五"投资固定资产 4 万亿元，多省 明确天然气关键战略能源定位 2026 年 1 月 18 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the reduction in production of polyester filament supports the upward movement of product prices [1]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials are tracked, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2474.39 CNY/ton, a decrease of 21.68 CNY/ton (-0.87%) week-on-week, while the international price differential is at 1105.24 CNY/ton, down by 57.47 CNY/ton (-4.94%) [2][3]. - Brent crude oil's weekly average price is reported at 64.50 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, which have influenced oil prices. Initially, oil prices rose due to these tensions, but later eased as the situation in Iran stabilized and Venezuelan oil exports resumed [2][15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have shown a slight decline, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6334.57 CNY (-70.71), 7526.14 CNY (-25.43), and 5246.79 CNY (-11.79) per ton respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical products' prices have generally increased due to strong cost support. Polyethylene prices are fluctuating, while polypropylene prices are rising due to reduced supply pressure from increased maintenance [2][43]. - EVA prices have significantly increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, leading to improved price differentials [2][43]. - Benzene prices have risen, but the price differential remains stable, while styrene prices have increased due to strong overseas demand and declining inventory [2][43]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - In the polyester segment, cost support remains strong, but weak demand in the textile sector has led to a slight increase in PX prices. The overall operating rate has decreased due to maintenance and production cuts in filament plants, resulting in price increases driven by supply-side support [2][43].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the market's upward momentum has slowed, with trading funds remaining active, leading to a significant increase in turnover rates, surpassing the high point from August 2025 [3][9] - The report suggests that the spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation following excessive short-term trading is normal, with policies indicating a temporary cooling but maintaining an overall loose tone [9][10] - The report emphasizes that in the liquidity bull market phase, price increases may be a significant theme, driven by the narrative of re-pricing key resources under the backdrop of de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [4][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the long-term view remains optimistic about the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices, despite short-term fluctuations [4][24] - It identifies that the current price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security, with geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts enhancing the strategic value of resource commodities [10][24] - The report notes that both supply and demand sides benefit from the expansion of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and other emerging sectors, while traditional demand is recovering [24][25] Group 3 - The report outlines that the main drivers of the current price increase are supply constraints combined with demand shifts, with a focus on the elasticity of supply [24][32] - It mentions that the supply constraints include capacity limitations in key resources like copper and rare earths, as well as policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [24][32] - The report also points out that the demand side should focus on the expansion opportunities in new energy sectors, which are expected to drive growth [24][32] Group 4 - The report indicates that the market may continue to show strength in the near term, with potential volatility in January, but the overall downward risk is manageable [32][35] - It suggests that the liquidity environment is likely to remain favorable leading up to the Spring Festival, with the possibility of further capital inflows supporting market stability [32][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring regulatory changes and the speed of supply release as potential sources of market volatility [32][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on green transformation and enhancing grid functionality [5] - Natural gas is recognized as a key strategic energy source in the 14th Five-Year Plan across multiple provinces, emphasizing its role in connecting traditional and new energy systems without setting consumption caps [5] - The power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment due to previous supply-demand tensions, with a gradual increase in electricity prices anticipated [5] Market Performance - As of January 16, the utility sector rose by 0.1%, outperforming the broader market, while the electricity sector increased by 0.20% and the gas sector decreased by 1.17% [4][12] - Key companies in the electricity sector showed varied performance, with Jidian Co. rising by 11.17% and Guodian Power falling by 3.24% [18] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton [4][23] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.5 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons week-on-week [30] - The daily coal consumption of inland power plants was 4.147 million tons, an increase of 96,000 tons/day week-on-week [34] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was 3,854 yuan/ton as of January 15, a 1.29% increase week-on-week [60] - The domestic apparent consumption of natural gas in November was 36.280 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [5] - The EU natural gas supply in the 52nd week of 2025 was 5.86 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [67] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, companies like Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International are recommended due to expected profit improvements [5] - In the natural gas sector, companies such as Xin'ao Co. and Guanghui Energy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market conditions [5]