[Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放 大 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩预告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。公 司预计此期间盈利为 21.5-22.5 亿元（同比+216.0%~230.7%），剔除永续 资本证券持有人应占盈利 2.01 亿元后，归母净利润为 19.5-20.5 亿元（同 比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strategic significance to the acquisition of approximately 29.06% of PUMA SE, with a target price of €35 per share, representing a 61.6% premium over the closing price prior to the announcement [2]. Core Insights - The acquisition is valued at approximately €1.505 billion (around 12.278 billion RMB), positioning the reporting company as PUMA's largest single shareholder [2]. - The company views PUMA's long-term brand value and market position, particularly in football and running, as underappreciated in its current stock price, providing a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. - The revenue contribution of PUMA from the Chinese market is only about 7%, indicating significant growth potential, with plans to leverage the company's successful "brand + retail" model to enhance PUMA's performance in China [2]. - The acquisition is a critical step in the company's "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, enhancing its global presence through PUMA's strong influence in Europe, North America, and Africa [2]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 13.197 billion, 14.129 billion, and 15.417 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.65X, 13.68X, and 12.54X [3]. - Revenue projections for the fiscal years 2025-2028 are estimated at 70.826 billion, 78.263 billion, 85.306 billion, and 92.557 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 11%, 9%, and 9% [4]. - The company's diluted EPS is projected to be 4.72, 5.05, and 5.51 HKD for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 青岛银行(002948) | | | | | | 绩、资产质量全维度向好 [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 青岛银行 2025 三季报点评：扩规模、 调结构、降成本，不良指标持续优化 青岛银行 2025 一季报点评：息差逆势 提升，业绩突出、不良再降 青岛银行 2024 年报点评：规模、效益 与质量协同跃升 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 青岛银行 2025 年业绩快报点评：规模、业 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 29 日 [Table_S [Table_S 事件：ummar 1ummar 月 28y]y]日晚，青岛银行发布 2025 年业绩快报：2025 年，实 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 青岛银行(002948) | | | | | | [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 ➢ 规模扩张势头强劲，存贷业务同步发力。截至 2025 年末，青岛银行资 产总额突破 8000 亿元大关，达 8149.60 亿元，同比增幅高达 18.12%， 在同业"慢扩表"趋势下实现逆势高增。贷款端，客户贷款总额达 3970.08 亿元，同比增长 16.53%，信贷投放聚焦本土实体经济，紧扣科技金融、 绿色金融等特色赛道，投放力度持续加大；存款端，客户存款总额达 5028.99 亿元，同比增长 16.41%，存贷规模协同增长，资金端根基愈 发稳固，为业务发展提供坚实支撑。 ➢ 盈利表现亮眼，效率持续提升。2025 年，青岛银行实现营业收入 145.73 亿元，同比增长 7.97%；归母净利润 51.88 亿元，同比增长 21.66%， 盈利弹性凸显。公司积极应对资产收益率下行等经营挑战，扩规模、调 结构、降成本，同时，加权平均净资产收益率回升至 12.68%，同比提 高 1.17 个百分 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 康耐特光学(2276.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 [Table_Title] 康耐特光学：募资加速 XR 业务投资，贡献长期成长 动能 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布公告，已同意不少于 ummary] 6 名承配人按照每股 52 港元 （较 1 月 26 日折价 11.1%；较 20 日均价折价 7.8%）认购公司 2700 万股份（占总股本比例约 5.63%）。总募集资金（剔除佣金 后）约 14 亿港元。根据公司公告，1）40%资金将用于建设 XR 配 套业务量产产线及购置计量与检测设备；2）约 20%将用于持续提 升研发能力，并就 XR 智能眼镜业务建立精密光学 ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 中烟香港(6055.HK) 投资评级 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 上次评级 [Table_Title] 中烟香港：提升烟叶采购上限，加码区域布局 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司近日发布公告。 ummary] 1）签订与 Leaf Trading（关联公司）的烟草销 售框架协议，26-28 年年度交易上限分别为 670/840/980 万港元；2）与中 烟国际（北美）签订烟叶产品出口至新地区的框架协议（公司及中烟北美均 为中国烟草总公司附属公司），并上调 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on recent developments and financial projections [1]. Core Insights - The company has signed a framework agreement with Leaf Trading, increasing the annual trading limit for tobacco sales to HKD 6.7 million, HKD 8.4 million, and HKD 9.8 million for the years 2026 to 2028 respectively [1]. - A framework agreement has also been established with China Tobacco International (North America) for the export of tobacco leaves to new regions, with the annual trading limits raised significantly for 2026 and 2027, reflecting increases of 538.4% and 456.8% respectively [1][2]. - The adjustments in trading limits are based on past orders, current orders, expected demand, and the company's business expansion, indicating strong confidence in future business growth [2]. - The company aims to diversify its customer base and attract potential buyers from broader regions, particularly in Southeast Asia [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 13,074 million in 2024 to HKD 18,823 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 16%, 12%, and 11% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from HKD 854 million in 2024 to HKD 1,310 million in 2027, with growth rates of 43%, 19%, 16%, and 11% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.23 in 2024 to HKD 1.89 in 2027 [4]. - The company is positioned as the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion and related trade for China Tobacco International, with a strong potential for mergers and acquisitions to accelerate growth [3]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported tobacco leaf import/export revenues of HKD 839.9 million and HKD 115.6 million, representing year-on-year increases of 23.5% and 25.9% respectively [2]. - The company’s cigarette export revenue was HKD 115.6 million, showing a slight increase of 0.8%, while new tobacco products experienced a significant decline of 66.5% [2]. - The Brazilian operations reported a revenue of HKD 19.5 million, down 50.3% year-on-year, indicating some operational challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 康耐特光学 (2276.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's growth potential and investment in XR business [1]. Core Insights - 康耐特光学 is accelerating its investment in XR business, with a total fundraising of approximately 1.4 billion HKD, aimed at enhancing production capabilities and R&D [1]. - The company is focusing on building a precision optical center to develop specialized materials and optical components for XR smart glasses, which is expected to strengthen its supply chain from materials to end applications [2]. - The main business is stable, with anticipated revenue growth driven by the recovery in North America and the increasing contribution from smart glasses [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 570 million, 690 million, and 890 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45.8X, 37.5X, and 29.0X [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,061 million CNY in 2024 to 3,401 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 14%, 18%, and 23% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 428 million CNY in 2024 to 894 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 31%, 32%, 22%, and 29% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.03 CNY in 2024 to 1.86 CNY in 2027 [2]. - Key financial metrics indicate a gross margin improvement from 38.58% in 2024 to 41.47% in 2027, and a net profit margin increase from 20.78% to 26.30% over the same period [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the metal packaging industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The metal packaging industry is experiencing steady expansion, with supply-demand pressure alleviating. The two-piece can segment is benefiting from increased beer canning rates, while the three-piece can segment maintains stable demand and superior profitability [9][37] - The industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with expectations for leading companies to recover profitability as capital expenditure cycles peak and production capacity expansion slows [46][65] - The trend of overseas expansion is gaining momentum, with leading companies prioritizing international markets to enhance profit structures [4][65] Summary by Sections 1. Metal Packaging: Industry Steady Expansion, Supply-Demand Pressure Alleviated - The two-piece and three-piece can segments have distinct characteristics, with the two-piece can being lighter and more cost-effective, while the three-piece can offers better strength and print quality [9] - The two-piece can segment saw national sales grow from 47 billion cans in 2019 to 58 billion cans in 2023, with a CAGR of 5.4%. The beer canning rate is projected to rise from 28.9% in 2023 to 36.5% by 2028, contributing to further growth [12][19] - The three-piece can segment's production and demand were approximately 31.05 billion and 30.53 billion cans respectively in 2022, with a stable competitive landscape and superior profitability compared to the two-piece can segment [23][37] 2. Cyclical Turning Point Emerging, Awaiting Profit Recovery for Leaders - The capital expenditure cycle is nearing its peak, with significant production capacity expansion expected to slow down in 2024-2025. The industry is currently experiencing low profitability levels, with limited room for further deterioration [46][50] - The profitability of leading companies is anticipated to improve as supply-demand dynamics stabilize, with potential for slight price increases in 2026 [65] 3. Accelerated Overseas Capacity Layout, Profit Center Expected to Optimize - Leading companies such as Baosteel Packaging, Aorui Jin, and Shengxing have reported significant growth in overseas revenues, with Baosteel's overseas revenue reaching 1.359 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.14% [4] - The overseas market offers better competitive dynamics and higher pricing, leading to improved profit margins compared to domestic operations [4][65] 4. Key Company Profiles - Baosteel Packaging focuses on the two-piece can segment, showing stable performance [4] - Aorui Jin is expanding through acquisitions, particularly with the purchase of COFCO Packaging, indicating strong growth potential [4] - Shengxing has a diversified product matrix, with expected profitability recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" [3] Core Insights - The company plans to invest up to 35 million yuan in Jiangyin Qixin Linghang through a newly established partnership, acquiring a 6.48% stake [3] - Jiangyin Qixin Linghang is in its cultivation and development stage, with projected revenues of 51.71 million yuan in 2024 and 29.10 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, alongside net losses of 36.03 million yuan and 12.91 million yuan respectively [3] - The investment is expected to benefit from the domestic substitution boom in the EDA industry, where U.S. companies dominate with a combined market share of 74% globally and over 80% in the domestic market [3] - The founding team of Qixin Linghang has over 20 years of experience in EDA, which positions the company well for industrialization in this sector [3] - The partnership is anticipated to create synergies in vocational education within the EDA field, leveraging the company's extensive network and resources in vocational training [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,213 million yuan in 2023 to 4,931 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from 154 million yuan in 2023 to 345 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 1035.2% in 2024 [4] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.26 yuan in 2023 to 2.83 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 31.28 to 13.95 [4]