Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the net repayment of urban investment bonds decreased but was weaker than the seasonal trend. The number of first - time bond - issuing entities increased significantly, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in bond issuance increased slightly. The number of new financing entities increased, still mainly in the transportation infrastructure sector. Also, 30 new urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" [5][9][29]. Summary According to the Directory 1. In June, the net repayment of urban investment bonds decreased but was weaker than the seasonal trend, and the number of first - time bond - issuing entities increased significantly - **Net Repayment Situation**: In June, the net repayment of urban investment bonds was 43.6 billion yuan. Although the net repayment scale decreased compared to May, the decline compared to the same period in previous years further expanded. The net financing scale of exchange - traded urban investment bonds turned negative, and the net repayment scale of association - issued urban investment bonds decreased. Zhejiang, Anhui, Jilin and other 11 provinces had positive net financing, while Sichuan, Hunan, Shanghai and other 19 provinces had net repayment [5][9]. - **Early Repayment**: The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in June increased by 4.6 billion yuan to 9.7 billion yuan compared to May, but the scale of announced early repayment and cash tender offers decreased slightly [5]. - **Termination of Approval**: The number and scale of exchange - traded urban investment bonds whose approval was terminated in June increased compared to May [5]. - **First - time Bond - issuing Entities**: There were 30 first - time bond - issuing entities in June, 13 more than in May. They were mainly distributed in Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu. Most of the funds raised were used to repay interest - bearing debts, and the issuance was mainly through exchange - traded private placement bonds [23]. 2. In June, the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in bond issuance increased slightly, and the number of new financing entities increased but still mainly in the transportation infrastructure sector - **Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old**: The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in urban investment bond issuance in June increased slightly by 0.9 percentage points to 82.62%. The proportion of repaying interest - bearing debts continued to rise, while the proportion of supplementary working capital, project construction, and equity investment decreased. In terms of regions, the borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio in Guizhou, Ningxia, Tianjin, Tibet, and Yunnan remained at 100%, and the ratio in 11 provinces such as Beijing, Shanxi, and Chongqing increased, while that in 9 provinces such as Guangxi, Hubei, and Hebei decreased [29][30]. - **New Financing Entities**: In June, the association issued 26 bonds involving 19 entities with a total issuance scale of 28.91 billion yuan, mainly in Jiangxi, Fujian, and Jiangsu, and mostly transportation infrastructure entities. The exchange issued 59 bonds involving 52 entities with a total issuance scale of 40.71 billion yuan [31][32]. 3. In June, 30 new entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities - **Accumulated Declaration Situation**: As of the end of June, a total of 403 urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" when issuing bonds. In terms of regions, 10 provinces including Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu had a total of 334 entities making such declarations, accounting for 82.88%. In terms of levels, AA + entities accounted for 53.35% [39]. - **New Declaration in June**: In June, 30 new urban investment entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, including 22 in the association and 8 in the exchange. Only Shenzhen Anju and Xuzhou Metro achieved new financing among them [6]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spread deviation between market - oriented operating entities and non - declared entities continued to converge, and there was still no significant differentiation [6].

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Zhujiang Beer, particularly with the rapid expansion of its 97 Pure Draft product since its launch in 2019, which has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 99% from 2.79 million tons in 2019 to 22.07 million tons in 2022 [7][17] - Despite concerns about the slowdown in the premium beer segment, regional beers, particularly in the 8-10 yuan price range, continue to show strong growth, with Zhujiang Beer positioned favorably in the Guangdong market [15][17] - The report anticipates that Zhujiang Beer will achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45, 0.56, and 0.67 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2025 to 2027 [7][8] Company Overview - Zhujiang Beer, established in 1985, is a major state-owned enterprise in the beer brewing and cultural industry, with a brand value of 18.8 billion yuan [19][22] - The company has a strong market presence in Guangdong, which is the second-largest beer-producing province in China, with a beer production of 4.54 million tons in 2023 [16][19] Industry Review - The report notes that regional beers have outperformed leading brands since 2021, with Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Chongqing Beer showing CAGRs of 4.8%, 4.3%, and 3.7% respectively, while leading brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery have seen CAGRs of only 0.4% and 0.5% [15][41] - The overall beer industry faced challenges in 2024, with a reported decline in production of 8.42% from March to December [41][47] Investment Highlights - Zhujiang Beer is expected to benefit from its strong positioning in the Guangdong market, where the economic environment and consumer demographics favor beer consumption [16][75] - The company is actively expanding its product line with the introduction of the 980ml Zhujiang Original Draft, which emphasizes cultural branding and competitive pricing [18][75]

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 刘旺传媒互联网及海外首席 uthor] 分析师 执业编号：S1500524120005 邮 箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 分众传媒点评：重视分众梯媒&支付宝"碰一 碰"合作，看好新潮收购带来协同效应 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 09 日 [Table_S [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar ummar年y]y]6 月 24 日，支付宝官方微信公众号发文表示："电梯也有支 付宝碰一下功能"，即分众传媒和支付宝在线上线下广告市场联动方面做出 的创新性玩法，当用户在电梯看到梯媒中碰一碰的设备时，可以解锁手机碰 一下设备小蓝环，即可立即领取红包或优惠券在下次付款时使用。 2025 年 4 月 9 日， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 康耐特光学 (2276.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on profit growth and market position. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of at least 30% in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a profit amounting to at least 271 million yuan. The growth rate of profit is anticipated to outperform revenue growth [1]. - 康耐特光学 is a leading player in the global lens market, with expectations for steady growth in standardized lenses and rapid growth in high-refractive and functional lenses, indicating an ongoing optimization of product structure and upward movement in pricing and profitability [1]. - The global smart glasses market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected shipment increase of 42.5% year-on-year in 2025. The company is expected to accelerate partnerships in the smart glasses sector, positioning itself as a core supplier of customized lenses for leading domestic brands [2]. - The company has diversified its overseas market presence, with limited impact from tariffs due to a low revenue share from the U.S. market and a robust supply chain. The Japan project is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 2,061 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 428 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 31% [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 558 million yuan in 2025, 671 million yuan in 2026, and 806 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30.9X, 25.7X, and 21.4X respectively [3]. Market Trends - The smart glasses market is projected to see a shipment of 1,451.8 million units in 2025, with significant contributions from audio and audio-capturing glasses, indicating a robust demand for innovative eyewear solutions [2]. - Major tech companies are launching new products in the smart glasses space, which is expected to further stimulate market growth and opportunities for 康耐特光学 [2]. Operational Insights - The company is actively expanding its client base and enhancing its supply chain capabilities, which is expected to lead to a rapid increase in collaborative projects in the smart glasses sector [2]. - The anticipated production increase from the Japan project is expected to cover the North American market effectively, enhancing the company's competitive position [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly benefit from the AI wave, with multiple growth engines contributing to its development [2] - The company is currently in a golden development period, with notable growth in AI-related revenues [2] - The company is positioned as a core player in the AI industry chain, awaiting further developments in its GB200 product line [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 6.73 billion to 6.93 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.72% to 52.11% [2] - For the first half of 2025, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is between 11.96 billion and 12.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.84% to 39.12% [2] - The company anticipates total revenue of 804.63 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 32.1% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 30.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9% [4] Business Growth Drivers - The cloud computing business is experiencing rapid growth, with Q2 revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year [5] - AI server revenue has grown by over 60% year-on-year, and revenue from cloud service provider servers has more than doubled [5] - The company maintains a leading market share in core products among major clients, with significant growth in GPU modules and GPU computing boards [5] - The precision components business has seen steady growth due to strong sales of high-end and affordable AI models [5] - Revenue from 800G switches reached three times the total for 2024, driven by increasing AI demand [5] Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 987.6 billion yuan in 2026 and 1,087.14 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.7% and 10.1% respectively [5] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 40.54 billion yuan, and for 2027, it is 45.10 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.4% and 11.3% respectively [5]

Group 1: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector shows a divergence in certainty, with direct express delivery focusing on performance and e-commerce express delivery focusing on valuation [22] - SF Holding's business volume has been consistently exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 31.76% in May 2025, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate [23][24] - The company's profit margin has steadily improved, with a net profit margin of approximately 3.20% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points [24][34] - The e-commerce express delivery sector faces intensified price competition, which may lead to performance fluctuations, while the overall industry volume grew by 20.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][42] Group 2: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is experiencing improved supply-demand certainty, with strong demand for civil aviation travel during holidays, leading to a year-on-year increase in passenger load factor to 84.1% from January to May 2025 [4][5] - Supply constraints are evident, with limited capacity for new aircraft deliveries and high utilization rates of existing fleets, indicating a strong likelihood of supply contraction [5][6] - Ticket prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise during peak travel seasons, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and a downward trend in oil prices [6][4] Group 3: Port Performance - The container throughput in ports remains resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% from January to May 2025, supported by strong export performance [7][8] - Dry bulk cargo throughput has shown signs of recovery, particularly in iron ore and coal, despite some short-term pressures [8][7] - Liquid bulk cargo, particularly crude oil, has faced demand pressures, leading to fluctuations in throughput [8] Group 4: Shipping and Chemical Products - The oil transportation sector is expected to see long-term supply increases, but demand remains uncertain, leading to potential fluctuations in freight rates [9] - Container shipping supply is gradually increasing, but short-term freight rates are expected to remain volatile due to changing tariff policies [10] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is anticipated to stabilize, with leading companies expected to recover their operating volumes, despite short-term declines [11][12] - Profit margins for major supply chain companies are projected to improve, with significant increases in gross margins for key products [12][13] Group 6: Road and Rail Transport - The highway sector is gradually recovering from a low base, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in freight volume from January to April 2025 [14] - The railway sector faces challenges due to weak coal demand, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in freight volume on the Daqin Line [14]

Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Factor Selection and Data Processing Pipeline - The MSCI Barra CNE5 model includes 10 primary factors and 21 secondary factors, covering classic academic factors such as beta, size, and book-to-price ratio, as well as fundamental and technical factors like value, growth, momentum, and residual volatility[22][23][24] - Secondary factors are standardized and weighted to synthesize primary factors, with weights optimized for explanatory power. However, later versions of MSCI Barra shifted to equal weighting for simplicity[23] - Data processing pipeline includes six steps: defining the base universe, outlier handling, missing value imputation, standardization, primary factor synthesis, and secondary outlier/standardization adjustments[31][32][35] Pure Factor Return Estimation - Pure factor returns are estimated using constrained weighted least squares (WLS). Constraints are introduced to address multicollinearity caused by the inclusion of intercepts (country factors)[44][45][49] - WLS weights are inversely proportional to the square root of market capitalization, ensuring smaller residual variance for larger stocks[45] - The solution for pure factor returns is derived using matrix transformations and Cholesky decomposition, ensuring variance homogeneity[46][57][59] Evaluation of Risk Factors and Factor Systems - MSCI Barra's six-dimensional evaluation criteria include statistical significance, stability, intuition, completeness, simplicity, and low multicollinearity[75][76][77] - Quantitative metrics such as average absolute t-values, variance inflation factors (VIF), and pure factor performance are used to assess factor quality. Factors like beta, liquidity, and size exhibit strong statistical significance but may overlap in information[83][84][85] Practical Applications of Risk Models - Risk models are applied for performance attribution in external products (e.g., public equity funds) and internal portfolios (e.g., brokerage "gold stock" portfolios). Attribution results include style/sector exposures and return/risk contributions[148][151][181] - For public equity funds, factor and idiosyncratic returns are decomposed to classify funds into "style advantage" or "stock-picking advantage" categories[152][153][155] - For brokerage gold stock portfolios, attribution reveals the superior performance of newly added stocks due to idiosyncratic returns, while recent underperformance is linked to systematic exposure to small-cap factors[157][169][170] --- Factor Backtesting Results Daily Frequency Results - **Beta**: Annual return 8.20%, annual volatility 4.87%, IR 1.69[86][111] - **Size**: Annual return -6.82%, annual volatility 4.57%, IR -1.49[86][105] - **Liquidity**: Annual return -9.46%, annual volatility 3.10%, IR -3.05[86][123] - **Value**: Annual return 4.32%, annual volatility 2.40%, IR 1.80[86][134] Monthly Frequency Results - **Beta**: Annual return 2.64%, annual volatility 3.95%, IR 0.15[95][111] - **Size**: Annual return -7.02%, annual volatility 5.99%, IR -0.26[95][105] - **Liquidity**: Annual return -5.74%, annual volatility 2.77%, IR -0.45[95][123] - **Value**: Annual return 2.94%, annual volatility 2.87%, IR 0.22[95][134] Gold Stock Portfolio Attribution - **All Gold Stocks**: Total return 61.86%, factor return -54.02%, idiosyncratic return 83.46%[171] - **Newly Added Gold Stocks**: Total return 83.50%, factor return -59.75%, idiosyncratic return 108.20%[174] - **Repeated Gold Stocks**: Total return 6.39%, factor return -44.66%, idiosyncratic return 19.60%[162] Factor Contribution Analysis - **Beta**: Positive contribution across all years, cumulative return 35.75% for all gold stocks, 44.47% for newly added gold stocks[175][176] - **Liquidity**: Negative contribution, cumulative return -48.67% for all gold stocks, -57.24% for newly added gold stocks[175][176] - **Size**: Mixed contribution, cumulative return 72.78% for all gold stocks, 97.27% for newly added gold stocks[175][176]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, which imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, is expected to improve export chain sentiment [12][6] - The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight recovery in June 2025, indicating improved new orders and production indices, which may contribute to a positive outlook for the industry [12][24] Company Summaries 1) Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic - The company focuses on ultrasonic equipment and solutions, achieving a revenue of 148 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 23.63 million yuan, up 2152.47% [3][13] - The business recovery in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery expansion, is expected to bring performance elasticity [13] 2) Zhenghe Industrial - Engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of various chain transmission systems, the company reported a revenue of 395 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.32% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 53.84 million yuan, up 100.09% [4][14] - The company is developing a micro-chain system project, focusing on robotic dexterous hand transmission technology, which may benefit from the mass production of humanoid robots [14] 3) Lvtian Machinery - The main products include general power machinery and high-pressure cleaning machines, with energy storage products entering mass production. Revenue growth rates for Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 are projected at 47.9%, 72.5%, and 50.1%, respectively [5][15] - The company is expected to experience a performance turning point, indicating a positive outlook for valuation recovery [15] Industry Overview - The mechanical index (CITIC) increased by 0.41% last week, while the overall market indices also showed positive growth [16][19] - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment in China grew by 8.5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a recovery trend [24]

航空行业深度分析：供需将改善，票价或长虹 [Table_Industry] 航空运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业深度研究 | [Table_StockAndRank] 航空运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 航空行业深度分析：供需将改善，票价或长 虹 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 07 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 航空：供给限制下，复苏或带来票价利润弹性 ummary] ] 。 航空盈利框架：航空行业主要受到运力供给、出行需求、客座率及票价表 现、油价、汇率波动等因素影响，各因素分别作用于航司的收入、成本及 费用端，最终影响到公司利润表现。 ➢ 需求：国内出行量保持稳增，国际线基本恢复到 ...