证券研究报告 【长城公用&电新】本周（5.27-5.31） 研究汇总和数据跟踪 评级（强于大市） 长城证券产业金融研究院 分析师：于夕朦S1070520030003 联系人：何郭香池S1070121120062 ...

公司快报 2024 年 06 月 04 日 长 城汽车(601633.SH) 证券研究报告 5 月新能源销量表现优异,新车型上市在即 乘用车Ⅲ 投资评级 买入-A 事件：据长城汽车公告，5月批发销量为9.1万台，同比下滑10%，环比 维持评级 下滑4%，其中新能源车销售2.5万台，同比增长4%，环比增长10%。 6个月目标价 39.4元 5月批发销量整体符合我们预期，多款改款车型上市有望带动销量向上。 股价 (2024-06-03) 25.98元 我们认为5月销量整体符合预期，环比减少0.3万台主要受到皮卡销量下 滑影响，其中新能源批发量2.5万、环比增加0.2万，燃油批发量6.7万， 交易数据 环比减少约0.6万。根据懂车帝数据推算，5月长城乘用车零售销量约4.6 总市值(百万元) 221,919.42 万台，环比基本持平。 流通市值(百万元) 160,257.80 1) 坦克：5 月销售 2.0 万台，同比增长 95%，环比基本持平。根据懂车帝数 总股本(百万股) 8,541.93 据推算，400/500Hi4-T合计零售销量约7千台； 流通股本(百万股) 6,168.51 12个月价格区间 19.87/ ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 年 06月 02日 通信 海外龙头加速推进 AI 产业发展，持续看好算力相关产业链发展 大模型：OpenAI和谷歌相继召开发布会，AI应用场景加速落地。OpenAI 强于大市（维持评级） 在活动中发布了新模型GPT-4o，可以接受文本、音频和图像三者组合作为输 入，并生成文本、音频和图像的任意组合输出。该模型能在 232毫秒内对音 行业走势 频输入做出反应，与人类在对话中的反应时间相近。GPT-4o在文本、推理和 编码等方面实现了与 GPT-4 Turbo级别相当的性能，同时在多语言、音频和 通信 沪深300 14% 视觉功能方面的表现分数也创下了新高。谷歌在发布会中发布了最新AI搜索 9% 引擎功能AI Overviews，通过多步推理，Gemini可以帮助用户找到更好的搜 3% -2% 索结果。Gemini 1.5 Pro 迎来了上下文窗口的重大升级，扩展到 200 万个 -8% token。同时，谷歌表示将在今年夏季扩展 Gemini 的多模态功能，包括增加 -13% -19% 用语音进行深入双向对话的能力 Live。我们认为，随着海外各厂商持续对大 -24% 模型 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in its e-commerce business, with a double-digit year-on-year growth in GMV for FY24Q4, and a revenue of 932 billion yuan, representing a 3.7% increase [5][9]. - The company is focusing on a "user-first" strategy, enhancing customer service and expanding membership benefits, which has led to a significant increase in the number of 88VIP members, exceeding 35 million [5][21]. - The company is preparing for a dual primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by the end of August 2024, which is anticipated to enhance liquidity and investor sentiment [12][60]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The domestic e-commerce segment has stabilized, with FY24Q4 GMV showing double-digit growth and revenue reaching 4,144.14 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [46]. - Customer management revenue for FY24Q4 was 636 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while direct sales revenue decreased by 2% [46][50]. Cloud Business - The cloud business has shown signs of recovery, with FY24Q4 revenue of 256 billion yuan, a 3% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related services [10][57]. - The company has implemented price reductions on over a hundred public cloud products to enhance service affordability [57]. International Digital Commerce - The AIDC segment reported a revenue of 274 billion yuan for FY24Q4, a 45% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the growth of the cross-border business [39][53]. - Despite the revenue growth, the AIDC segment experienced an adjusted EBITA loss of 40.85 billion yuan, indicating increased investment in emerging markets [39][55]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,023.66 billion yuan, 1,109.81 billion yuan, and 1,190.62 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 97.34 billion yuan, 107.77 billion yuan, and 113.54 billion yuan [38][62]. - The expected EPS for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 is 4.78 yuan, 5.29 yuan, and 5.57 yuan respectively, with PE ratios of 16.68, 15.07, and 14.30 [38][62].

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 年 06月 02日 通信 海外龙头加速推进 AI 产业发展，持续看好算力相关产业链发展 大模型：OpenAI和谷歌相继召开发布会，AI应用场景加速落地。OpenAI 强于大市（维持评级） 在活动中发布了新模型GPT-4o，可以接受文本、音频和图像三者组合作为输 入，并生成文本、音频和图像的任意组合输出。该模型能在 232毫秒内对音 行业走势 频输入做出反应，与人类在对话中的反应时间相近。GPT-4o在文本、推理和 编码等方面实现了与 GPT-4 Turbo级别相当的性能，同时在多语言、音频和 通信 沪深300 14% 视觉功能方面的表现分数也创下了新高。谷歌在发布会中发布了最新AI搜索 9% 引擎功能AI Overviews，通过多步推理，Gemini可以帮助用户找到更好的搜 3% -2% 索结果。Gemini 1.5 Pro 迎来了上下文窗口的重大升级，扩展到 200 万个 -8% token。同时，谷歌表示将在今年夏季扩展 Gemini 的多模态功能，包括增加 -13% -19% 用语音进行深入双向对话的能力 Live。我们认为，随着海外各厂商持续对大 -24% 模型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [4][12]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business remains robust, with a focus on advancements in AI and intelligent driving. The company reported a revenue of 315.13 billion CNY in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1% and a non-GAAP net profit of 70.11 billion CNY, reflecting a 22% increase [2][3]. - The intelligent cloud business is accelerating, with a 12% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2024, driven by Gen AI and foundational models [2][3]. - The autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," saw a 25% increase in order volume, with expectations of achieving breakeven in the Wuhan region by the end of 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 146.20 billion CNY, 156.86 billion CNY, and 166.77 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 23.09 billion CNY, 26.05 billion CNY, and 29.01 billion CNY [6][7]. - The report indicates a steady increase in EPS, projected at 8.26 CNY, 9.31 CNY, and 10.37 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7]. - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.1 in 2023 to 10.4 by 2026, indicating improved valuation [2][6]. Business Developments - Baidu's core intelligent cloud business is benefiting from AI-driven innovations, with significant contributions from Gen AI and foundational models, which accounted for 6.9% of AI cloud revenue in Q1 2024 [2][3]. - The launch of lightweight large models has enhanced the development environment for developers, increasing the number of developers in the Baidu PaddlePaddle community to 13 million [2]. - The autonomous driving segment is expected to replicate success in other regions following the anticipated breakeven in Wuhan, supported by advanced technology and cost reductions in vehicle production [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxi Chemical (000830 SZ) [1] Core Views - Luxi Chemical's 1Q24 performance shows gradual recovery, with revenue of 6 752 billion yuan, up 2 61% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 568 million yuan, up 76 26% YoY [2] - The company's 2023 performance was impacted by an explosion accident, leading to a 16 47% YoY decline in revenue to 25 358 billion yuan and a 74 05% YoY decline in net profit to 819 million yuan [1] - The report is optimistic about the company's medium to long term layout, citing potential recovery in product prices and the gradual commissioning of new projects [5] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow to 29 379 billion yuan in 2024, 32 644 billion yuan in 2025, and 34 174 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 15 9%, 11 1%, and 4 7% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1 934 billion yuan in 2024, 2 289 billion yuan in 2025, and 2 615 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 136 3%, 18 3%, and 14 3% respectively [1] - ROE is expected to improve from 4 8% in 2023 to 10 3% in 2024, 11 8% in 2025, and 12 9% in 2026 [1] Business Segments - In 2023, the chemical new materials segment contributed 16 058 billion yuan in revenue, down 4 66% YoY, with a gross margin of 14 54% [2] - The basic chemical products segment generated 6 259 billion yuan in revenue, down 39 08% YoY, with a gross margin of 13 87% [2] - The fertilizer products segment contributed 2 601 billion yuan in revenue, down 15 07% YoY, with a gross margin of 7 17% [2] Operational Highlights - Sales volume of key products declined in 2023, with octanol down 5 75% YoY to 458 900 tons, nylon 6 down 5 49% YoY to 297 700 tons, and caustic soda down 18 19% YoY to 662 400 tons [2] - The company's accounts receivable decreased by 43 75% YoY, with the turnover ratio increasing from 398 03 times in 2022 to 524 50 times in 2023 [5] - Inventory decreased by 4 75% YoY, with the turnover ratio declining from 14 09 times in 2022 to 13 41 times in 2023 [5] Project Development - The company is progressing with several projects, including the caprolactam nylon 6 phase I project (85% completion), hydrogen peroxide project (60% completion), and polycarbonate project (98% completion) [5] - The company plans to achieve a production target of 9 6 million tons and a revenue target of 31 3 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at a P/E of 12 2x for 2024E, 10 3x for 2025E, and 9 0x for 2026E, based on the closing price of 12 23 yuan on May 31, 2024 [1] - The P/B ratio is 1 3x for 2024E, 1 2x for 2025E, and 1 2x for 2026E [1]

图表20：德、美 PMI对比与法、美股指对比 图表21：意、法股指和意、德国债利差（%） 2019-01 2020-02 2021-03 2022-04 2023-05 宏观经济研究*月报 1. 全球经济周期 1.1 美国经济继续偏强 2024 年 4 月美国零售和食品服务零售额同比增速为 4.02%，比上个月回升了 1.8 个百分 点。修匀后的 12 月均值出现了较长时间的稳态，与之相对应的就是库存销售比，该指 数也保持平稳状态持续了三年，下一阶段随着补库周期的启动而开始下降。随着消费的 回升，美国制造业景气度也将持续上升，并提高居民收入，进一步加速消费的增长。虽 然 4 月份 PMI 的需求缺口有所回落，但我们预计 5 月份将明显回升。 近期美国资本市场出现美股上涨和利率上涨的特征，这与美林时钟繁荣期的资本市场表 现一致。截至 5 月 24 日，5 月份标普 500 指数上涨 5.34%，创历史新高。美国 10 年期 国债利率 4.46%，比月初略有下降，但仍处于上升趋势之中。展望六月份，6 月 12 日美 联储再一次召开议息会议，若货币政策偏紧，美国利率继续上升，滞胀风险可能加剧。 2,500 3,00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the AI wave, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential. The overall industry is projected to enter a mild recovery phase, with increasing demand in sectors such as smart terminals, high-performance computing, automotive electronics, and AIoT [2][6]. - The company's revenue for 2023 was approximately 85.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 2.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.59% [1][2]. - The company has a strong position in the ODM market, with a 27.9% share in the global smartphone ODM market, and is expected to maintain steady growth in its smart terminal business due to the recovery in consumer electronics demand [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2022 revenue was 92.65 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 85.34 billion yuan, with a projected recovery to 99.00 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 16.0% [1][7]. - The net profit for 2022 was 2.56 billion yuan, increasing to 2.71 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations of 3.03 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 11.9% [1][7]. - **Margins**: - The gross margin for 2023 was 11.33%, up 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.11%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 3.73 yuan, with projections of 4.17 yuan for 2024 and 5.63 yuan for 2026 [1][7]. Business Segment Performance - **High-Performance Computing**: - Revenue from high-performance computing products was 49.09 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 1.96% [2]. - **Smart Terminals**: - Revenue from smart terminal products was 31.27 billion yuan, down 22.95% year-on-year, indicating challenges in this segment [2]. - **AIoT and Other Products**: - This segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 466.53% [2]. - **Automotive and Industrial Products**: - Revenue increased by 37.57% year-on-year to 0.81 billion yuan, showcasing strong demand in this area [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an **"Overweight"** rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the industry index over the next six months [6][34] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve **recovery growth** in 2024, driven by increased sales orders and improved profitability, with Q1 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by **7.42%** and **31.25%** respectively [10] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the **US market**, with plans to acquire Decking Distribution Sub, LLC, and establish production bases in **Vietnam** and **Thailand**, which are expected to drive future growth [9] - The company's **overseas business** accounted for **91%** of its revenue in 2023, with Europe being the primary market, contributing approximately **64%** of overseas revenue in 2021 [10] - The company plans to use **30-40 million yuan** of its IPO overfunding to repurchase shares for employee stock ownership or equity incentive plans, demonstrating confidence in its future development [10][29] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 were **616 million yuan** and **48 million yuan**, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of **25%** and **43.65%** [10] - For 2024-2026, the company's revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **39.3%**, reaching **1.7 billion yuan** by 2026 [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by **104.5%**, **38%**, and **23%** in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching **166 million yuan** by 2026 [6] - The company's **ROE** is forecasted to improve from **3.2%** in 2023 to **9.5%** by 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [6] Industry and Competitive Advantages - The global **wood-plastic composite** market is expected to grow at a CAGR of **11.4%** from 2019 to 2027, driven by increasing demand for sustainable materials [36] - The company holds a competitive edge in the market due to its **export-oriented business model**, with products sold in developed countries such as the US and Europe, where it has secured a share of the **mid-to-high-end market** [36] - The company possesses **independent core technologies** and has developed a comprehensive product portfolio of high-performance wood-plastic composites, which meet international standards and have contributed to the advancement of the domestic wood-plastic industry [36] Expansion and Capacity - The company is expanding its production capacity through projects such as the **20,000-ton lightweight co-extruded wood-plastic composite expansion project** and the **6 million square meter new stone-wood-plastic composite digital printing production line upgrade project** [9] - The establishment of subsidiaries in **Vietnam** and **Thailand** is expected to enhance the company's overseas production and service capabilities, better meeting the order demands of international customers [9]