行业报告:先进制造行业周报 2024年10月19日 中航证券有限公司 AVIC SECURITIES CO., LTD. 原生鸿蒙之夜定档绽放，相关产业链伙伴迎来发展新契机 行业评级：增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|----------------|-------|-------|--------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：邹润芳 | | | | | | | | | | | 证券执业证书号：S0640521040001 | | | | | 分析师：卢正羽 | | | | | | | | | | | 证券执业证书号：S0640521060001 | | | | | 分析师：闫智 | | | 证券执业证书号：S0640122070030 | 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 | --- | --- | |-----------------|--------------- ...

2024年10月19 证券研究报告行业研究 行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 抢抓政策东风，科技人才教育引领新趋势 ◆ 本周行情：社会服务（申万）板块指数周涨跌幅为4.50%，在申万 一级行业涨跌幅中排名6/31。 � 各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为：各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为：社会服 务（4.50%）、创业板指（4.49%）、深证成指（2.95%）、上证指 数（1.36%）、沪深300（0.98%）。 � � � � 子行业涨跌幅排名：教育（2.55%）、旅游及景区（0.33%）、体 育Ⅱ（-1.39%）、酒店餐饮（-1.65%）、专业服务（-2.66%）。 个股涨跌幅排名前五: 安车检验 (21.25%) 、豆神教育 (21.03%) 、 科德教育 (16.26%)、国脉科技(15.78%)、众信旅游 (14.75%)。 个股涨跌幅排名后五：同庆楼(-5.76%)、中体产业(-3.07%)、中钢 天源(-2.42%)、张家界(-2.09%)、中金辐照(-1.83%)。 核心观点: 自2022年12月中办、国办印发《关于深化现代职业教育体系建设改 革的意见》以来,建设8个省域现代职业教育体系建设试点、2个国 家级行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating expected growth above the benchmark index in the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The securities sector has shown a strong performance with a 3.58% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.60 percentage points [4]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.47, which is around the 40th percentile of 2020 [4]. - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have initiated a swap convenience operation to support market stability, with an initial quota exceeding 200 billion yuan [4][36]. - The report emphasizes the potential for mergers and acquisitions within the brokerage sector as a means to enhance competitiveness and resource allocation [6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for A-shares reached 16,680 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 6.49% [13]. - The margin financing balance stood at 15,946.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 145.95 billion yuan [24]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - Major insurance companies reported premium income for the first nine months of 2024, with China Life at 608.3 billion yuan (+5.1%) and Ping An at 449.8 billion yuan (+9.8%) [7][45]. - The total assets of insurance companies reached 34.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.31% [30]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the regulatory support for the insurance sector, including the establishment of new investment funds by qualified insurance institutions [44]. - The ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions is expected to accelerate, particularly among leading brokerages like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [6][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the military industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The military electronics sector experienced a market reversal in late September, with a significant increase in the index by 29.40% from September 24 to September 30, outperforming both the military sector and the broader market [2][23] - Despite the recent gains, the valuation of the military electronics sector remains at a historical low, positioned at the 18.93 percentile [2][23] - The military industry is expected to see marginal improvements following the worst mid-year performance in a decade, with the market conditions stabilizing [2][26] - The report highlights four key advantages of the military industry: potential for significant marginal improvement, increased focus on asset securitization and mergers, representation of new productive forces, and heightened sensitivity to geopolitical events [6][26] Summary by Sections Monthly Market Performance - In September, the military electronics index rose by 23.76%, outperforming the military sector index by 4.11 percentage points [16] - The top three performers included Ruichuang Micro-Nano (+55.67%), Alliance Electronics (+40.52%), and Aerospace Hongtu (+38.07%) [16] Key Insights - The military electronics sector is currently in a phase of inventory clearance and slowing new orders, but it is expected to rebound with higher elasticity in market performance [2][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with previously low performance but strong growth potential, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][28] Investment Logic - The military electronics sector is identified as a key area for investment due to its potential for recovery and growth driven by technological advancements and geopolitical factors [6][29] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in artificial intelligence, software localization, and new domain combat capabilities as areas of significant growth [29][31] Mergers and Acquisitions - The report notes a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions within the military electronics sector, supported by favorable policies from regulatory bodies [33][35] - The trend of consolidation is expected to increase as companies seek to enhance their market positions and operational efficiencies [33][35] Emerging Opportunities - The report identifies two key areas for future growth: the development of satellite internet infrastructure and the low-altitude economy, which are expected to drive demand for military electronics [38][39] - The emphasis on new technologies and innovative solutions is seen as critical for maintaining competitiveness in the military electronics market [37][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The macro environment is changing, with the government planning to introduce targeted policies to support the economy, including increasing debt limits and issuing special government bonds to stabilize the real estate market [6][8] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a shift from price-driven growth to a focus on technological upgrades and cost-effectiveness [8][9] - The demand for N-type components is exceeding 90%, with TOPCon becoming the main player due to cost advantages [9][10] - The industry is entering a consolidation phase, with many companies facing operational pressures and potential bankruptcies due to declining prices and demand [10][12] Summary by Sections Macro Environment - The government is set to implement a series of policies to support local governments in managing hidden debts and stabilizing the real estate market [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the establishment of manufacturing pilot platforms to enhance the industrialization of key materials [6] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector has seen a rapid expansion since 2021, but prices have hit historical lows, leading to operational challenges for companies [8] - In the first eight months of the year, solar power accounted for two-thirds of new power installations, with a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 750 GW, a year-on-year increase of 48.8% [8][9] - The industry is experiencing a price decline across the supply chain, with significant drops in silicon material and component prices [9][10] Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage - The sales of new energy vehicles are showing strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 42.9% in August [12] - BYD remains a strong performer in the market, with significant overseas sales growth [12] Hydrogen Energy - The hydrogen fuel vehicle market is growing, with a notable increase in sales in August [14] - China leads the global market in electrolyzer production capacity, which is crucial for the hydrogen production industry [14] Key Companies and Stock Performance - Key stocks to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, BYD, and Tongwei Co., with varying performance metrics and market capitalizations [15][16]

Economic Overview - In September 2024, China's exports totaled $303.71 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.60% and a year-on-year growth of 2.40%, which is significantly below market expectations of 5.94%[2] - Imports in September 2024 reached $222.00 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 2.01% and a year-on-year growth of 0.30%, also falling short of market expectations of 1.20%[3] - The trade surplus for September 2024 was $81.71 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.23%[2] Export Performance - In September 2024, 11 product categories positively contributed to export growth, a decrease of 9 categories from August, with machinery, ships, and automobiles being the main supports[2] - The export volume of steel increased by 26.0% and automobiles by 21.8%, both exceeding a 20% year-on-year increase[3] - The average export price of ships surged by 89.9% year-on-year, while only 6 out of 16 categories saw an increase in average export prices[3] Import Dynamics - Among 25 categories of imports, 15 recorded positive year-on-year growth, with soybeans (59.0%), aircraft over 2 tons (55.6%), and machine tools (50.5%) showing significant increases[3] - The average import price for 13 categories rose year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance in import pricing[3] Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding exports is expected to rise in Q4 2024 due to external factors such as U.S. inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may impact global trade dynamics[5] - Continued weak import performance alongside subdued domestic demand suggests a persistent trend of internal economic softness in China[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the defense industry [1] Core Insights - The defense materials sector has experienced a significant rebound in September 2024, with the index rising by 30.66% from September 24 to September 30, outperforming the broader market indices [1][15] - The defense industry is expected to be one of the sectors with the largest marginal improvement, following the worst mid-year performance in a decade [16] - The report highlights the importance of asset securitization, restructuring, and mergers and acquisitions as key themes in the industry, supported by government policies and market risk appetite [2][16] - Geopolitical events are increasingly stimulating the defense market, with rising global security demands leading to a competitive arms race [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense materials sector is positioned upstream in the defense supply chain, showing higher elasticity in market recovery [16] - The sector's high valuations have largely been digested, paving the way for potential performance and valuation improvements as the industry fundamentals recover [16] Key Materials and Trends - Key materials such as titanium alloys and high-temperature alloys are expected to see increased demand due to their critical roles in aerospace and defense applications [18] - Advanced composite materials, including carbon fiber and ceramic matrix composites, are gaining traction due to their lightweight and high-performance characteristics [19][22] - Functional new materials, such as stealth and wave-absorbing materials, are becoming essential for modern military equipment [22] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for companies to diversify their client base and avoid reliance on single-source suppliers to mitigate risks [8] - The low-cost and high-reliability trade-off is highlighted, indicating that significant price reductions in military products may not be sustainable without compromising quality [8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the defense materials sector, particularly those involved in high-demand new materials [18] - Specific companies to watch include Guangwei Composite, Zhongfu Shenying, and Jialiqi in the carbon fiber composite space, as well as Feishun Special Steel and Steel Research High-tech in high-temperature alloys [9]

Group 1: Market Confidence and Policy Measures - Recent high-level meetings have enhanced market confidence, with significant discussions on implementing a package of incremental policies to boost economic growth[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to advance a central budget investment plan of 100 billion yuan for next year, aimed at supporting infrastructure in the fourth quarter[2] - The Ministry of Finance indicated that it will increase the debt limit significantly to help local governments manage hidden debt risks, which is expected to be the largest support measure in recent years[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - As of October 12, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3217.7377, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10060.7393, reflecting market movements following policy announcements[2] - The 10-year government bond yield was reported at 2.14%, showing a slight decrease of 1 basis point since the end of September, indicating a stable bond market amid policy expectations[8] - The U.S. September CPI rose by 2.4%, slightly above expectations, which has tempered market expectations for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[8] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The anticipated increase in government bond issuance is likely to create volatility in liquidity during the fourth quarter, with a potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts to support liquidity[6] - The market is closely monitoring the implementation of incremental fiscal policies, which could significantly impact credit expansion and economic recovery[9] - Risks include potential geopolitical tensions and slower-than-expected domestic demand recovery, which could undermine the effectiveness of the proposed fiscal measures[9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [71]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that fiscal policies are becoming more supportive, which is expected to enhance consumer expectations and support the overall agricultural sector, particularly in the pet and livestock segments [3][7]. - Key stocks to watch include leading companies in the pet food sector such as "Guai Bao Pet," "Zhong Chong Co.," and "Peidi Co.," as well as significant livestock producers like "Mu Yuan Co." and "Wens Foodstuff Group" [3][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The performance of the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry was 0.81% from September 28 to October 11, ranking 27th out of 31 industries [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 4.22%, and the CSI 300 rose by 4.95% during the same period [1]. Key Market Trends - The report highlights that the pig price remains strong despite a decrease in slaughter volume, with a cumulative slaughter of 38.49 million pigs, down 5.2% year-on-year [8]. - The average price of pigs as of October 11 was 18.96 CNY/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.68% [12]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted fiscal policies aimed at boosting economic growth and consumer spending, which is expected to positively impact the agricultural sector [3][7]. - The report draws parallels to past fiscal stimulus measures, suggesting that the pet food sector could see significant growth, with projected compound annual growth rates of 17% for pet food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for pet snacks by 2026 [7]. Livestock Sector Insights - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from improved consumer expectations, with the pig industry showing a low price-to-book ratio of 2.99, indicating potential for growth [8]. - The report notes that leading companies are actively engaging in share buybacks, reflecting confidence in their valuations and future performance [8]. Pet Industry Focus - The pet food segment is highlighted as a key area for investment, with domestic brands strengthening their market positions through capacity expansion and brand development [7][8]. - The report suggests that the pet food market is likely to outperform other segments due to its discretionary spending nature [7]. Agricultural Commodity Trends - Global grain supply and demand forecasts have been adjusted, with wheat and rice production expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical factors [16][17]. - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is poised for a recovery, supported by favorable government policies and improving market conditions [39][40].

Core Insights - The report indicates a policy shift confirmed by the 924 and 926 meetings, leading to a reversal in market confidence due to strong policy stimuli, although the market has seen a pullback after an initial surge [1][7][8] - It is expected that multiple policy windows in Q4 will gradually introduce growth-stabilizing measures rather than a one-time rollout, leading to a differentiated market trend with a potential upward oscillation [1][5][9] - The report emphasizes a "bottom support, upward space" strategy, highlighting the implementation of a 500 billion yuan swap facility by the central bank to enhance market stability and liquidity [1][8][9] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank's 500 billion yuan swap facility aims to provide liquidity specifically for the stock market, supporting eligible financial institutions with low-cost funding [8][9] - The Ministry of Finance has indicated a proactive stance on economic support, with plans to increase local government debt limits and issue special government bonds to stabilize the financial system [9][10] - The report outlines four key areas for policy support: local government debt risk resolution, capital replenishment for major banks, stabilization of the real estate market, and enhanced support for key consumer groups [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors aligned with policy directions, particularly in banking, non-bank financials, real estate chains, and public utilities, especially those with undervalued assets [5][12] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in previously undervalued assets as economic conditions stabilize, with a specific emphasis on the military industry due to its unique growth opportunities [4][11] - The report advises monitoring the intensity and direction of fiscal policies, real estate market impacts, and changes in the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve interest rate paths [12]