北方稀土挂牌价环比继续提升 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2024 年 11 月 03 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

坚朗五金（002791.SZ） 装修建材 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 02 日 毛利率维持稳定，海外业务持续提升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous improvement in new orders, indicating a steady recovery in overall business performance. The growth in new orders is attributed to the gradual recovery of overseas client demand and the advancement of more service projects into the later stages of clinical development [1][2] - The financial forecasts indicate a projected revenue increase from 11,538 million yuan in 2023 to 15,979 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.11% [1][10] - The net profit is expected to grow from 1,601.10 million yuan in 2023 to 2,223.19 million yuan by 2026, with a net profit margin improvement anticipated [1][11] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue (in million yuan)**: - 2022: 10,266.29 - 2023: 11,538.00 - 2024E: 12,072.30 - 2025E: 13,881.54 - 2026E: 15,979.41 - Year-on-Year Growth Rate: 2023: 12.39%, 2024E: 4.63%, 2025E: 14.99%, 2026E: 15.11% [1] - **Net Profit (in million yuan)**: - 2022: 1,374.60 - 2023: 1,601.10 - 2024E: 1,718.27 - 2025E: 1,876.64 - 2026E: 2,223.19 - Year-on-Year Growth Rate: 2023: 16.48%, 2024E: 7.32%, 2025E: 9.22%, 2026E: 18.47% [1] - **Earnings Per Share (in yuan)**: - 2022: 0.77 - 2023: 0.90 - 2024E: 0.96 - 2025E: 1.05 - 2026E: 1.24 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022: 37.44 - 2023: 32.14 - 2024E: 29.95 - 2025E: 27.42 - 2026E: 23.15 [1] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022: 4.88 - 2023: 4.10 - 2024E: 3.59 - 2025E: 3.17 - 2026E: 2.79 [1] Market Trends and Order Growth - The company reported a new order growth of over 3.00 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by the recovery of overseas client demand and the expansion of service projects into advanced clinical stages [1][2] - The overall gross margin for the company is expected to stabilize as the business gradually recovers, with a focus on maintaining competitive advantages in integrated and multi-therapy platforms [1][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's large component business is steadily climbing, contributing to stable revenue growth, while currency fluctuations and cost control have led to significantly better-than-expected profitability [3] - The company has launched a new stock incentive plan, reflecting confidence in sustained growth, and is expanding its overseas production capacity in North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 74.5 billion, 96.8 billion, and 121.0 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 30%, and 25% respectively [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.725 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.4% and a year-on-year increase of 7.33% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 292 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.7% [2][3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.00 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [1][5] - The company's net asset return (ROE) is expected to be 15% in 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 15.8 [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.619 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, down 83.71% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the slow recovery of routine testing demand due to medical reforms and the promotion of DRGs [1]. - The company is actively responding to policy changes by establishing partnerships with top-tier hospitals and enhancing its digital transformation efforts, which are expected to support long-term growth [1]. - The report projects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 7.331 billion, 8.536 billion, and 9.955 billion yuan, respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 302 million, 812 million, and 997 million yuan for the same period [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.15%, and a net profit of 4 million yuan, down 98.56% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 35.15%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced revenue and increased fixed cost amortization [1]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 1.49%, down 7.49 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Cost Structure - The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 12.06%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 8.60%, up 0.43 percentage points year-on-year; while the R&D expense ratio was 5.38%, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The company has improved its cash flow management, with accounts receivable decreasing by 439 million yuan compared to the end of Q2 2024, totaling 5.116 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was 312 million yuan, with Q3 contributing 278 million yuan [1]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as an industry leader and is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the industry, with ongoing improvements in laboratory profitability [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's strategic partnerships and digital transformation initiatives in driving future growth [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical factors are impacting short-term performance, but there is optimism regarding the launch of new sequencing products in overseas markets and a recovery in the domestic market [1] - The company is facing challenges due to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and increased market competition affecting the sales of sequencing and laboratory automation products [1][2] - Despite the current difficulties, the company is expected to benefit from strategic partnerships and increased demand for innovative products in both domestic and international markets [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.886 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.19%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -463 million [1] - Quarterly performance shows that in Q3 2024, revenue was 660 million, down 13.22% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -165 million, a decline of 65.54% [1] - The company's operating income is projected to decline from 2.911 billion in 2023 to 2.731 billion in 2024, with a forecasted growth rate of -6% [1][4] Profitability and Cost Structure - The report indicates that the company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 61.47%, an increase compared to the previous year [1] - The sales expense ratio increased to 33.80%, up 8.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio rose to 21.38%, an increase of 5.42 percentage points [1] - Research and development expenses accounted for 29.61% of total expenses, reflecting a year-on-year increase [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will recover to 3.409 billion in 2025 and reach 4.217 billion by 2026, with expected growth rates of 25% and 24% respectively [1][4] - The company is expected to continue investing in innovative product development and expanding its global distribution channels, which may lead to a rebound in performance [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's electronic gas segment is steadily advancing, but short-term profitability is under pressure due to project ramp-up [1] - The helium price impact has weakened marginally, and the company is expected to improve its gross margin as new projects stabilize [1] - The semiconductor development is anticipated to boost demand for electronic bulk gases, supporting the company's long-term growth [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [1][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year [1][3] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 530 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 24.0%, down 7.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 1,835 million yuan, 2,081 million yuan, 2,864 million yuan, and 3,468 million yuan respectively [1][8] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 320 million yuan, 242 million yuan, 331 million yuan, and 448 million yuan respectively [1][8] - The expected growth rates for net profit are -24% in 2024E, 36% in 2025E, and 35% in 2026E [1][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leading domestic player in electronic bulk gases and helium, with a strong order backlog and growth potential [1] - The company is expected to enhance its core competitiveness through the establishment of high-end equipment manufacturing bases and electronic specialty gas projects [1] - The electronic specialty gas projects are anticipated to further expand the company's business footprint in the electronic gas sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, particularly for Apple, following its FY24Q4 performance which exceeded revenue expectations [2][19]. Core Insights - Apple achieved FY24Q4 revenue of $94.93 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.7%, surpassing market expectations of $94.36 billion [2][5]. - The iPhone segment performed particularly well, with revenue of $46.22 billion, up 5.5% year-over-year and 17.6% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding market expectations [20][24]. - The report highlights the impact of a one-time tax payment of approximately $10.2 billion due to a European court ruling, which significantly affected net profit, resulting in a reported net profit of $14.74 billion, down 35.8% year-over-year [14][18]. Summary by Sections FY24Q4 Performance - Revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in the Americas, Europe, Japan, and other Asia-Pacific regions [7][19]. - The overall gross margin was 46.2%, consistent with market expectations, while the company anticipates a gross margin of 46%-47% for FY25Q1 [8][11]. Business Segments - **iPhone**: Revenue of $46.22 billion, exceeding expectations, with strong sales driven by the new iPhone models and the introduction of Apple Intelligence [20][24]. - **Mac**: Revenue of $7.74 billion, meeting expectations, with new M4 series products expected to boost future sales [24][26]. - **iPad**: Revenue of $6.95 billion, slightly below expectations, but showing strong growth in emerging markets [27][28]. - **Wearables**: Revenue of $9.04 billion, slightly below expectations, with new product launches anticipated to drive future growth [29][30]. - **Services**: Revenue of $24.97 billion, showing year-over-year growth of 11.9%, driven by strong performance in various service categories [32][34]. Apple Intelligence - The report discusses the launch of Apple Intelligence, which is expected to enhance product offerings and drive sales growth, with features gradually rolling out to more regions and languages [36][37].

评级：无评级 分析师：由子沛 本周行情回顾： 本周（10.28-11.03）20 支 REITs 上涨，2 支持平，26 支下跌，整体下跌 0.27%，其 中中金科投光谷 REIT 涨幅最大为 4.19%，华夏南京高速 REIT 跌幅最大为 3.98%， 同期沪深 300 下跌 1.68%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.38%，中证全债指数上涨 0.14%， 中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.05%，中债 10 年期国债指数上涨 0.21%，中证转债指数 下跌 0.54%。 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 重点事件：1)华泰宝湾物流 REIT 于 10 月 29 日在深交所上市，首日上涨 0.3%；2） 华夏南京高速 REIT 将于 11 月 1 日在上交所上市，首日上涨 0.02%。3）中金联东科 创 REIT 将于 11 月 5 日于上交所上市，上市开盘参考价位 3.234 元/份。4)建 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tesla is expected to launch a new generation battery pack manufactured by CATL in 2025, which is anticipated to become a core product in the next 1-2 years [7]. - The lithium battery industry is projected to experience significant performance and valuation improvements over the next two years, indicating a favorable medium-term investment opportunity [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply-demand balance in the lithium battery sector, with expectations of a turning point in supply and demand dynamics in 2-3 years [1]. Summary by Sections Battery Industry - The battery industry index decreased by 4.52%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.839 percentage points [5]. - Key companies with stable profitability and good competitive positioning, such as Shangtai Technology and Hunan YN, showed positive stock performance [5][6]. - Tesla's Model 3 battery upgrade is expected to enhance safety and performance while reducing costs, with a net capacity increase of 4% [7]. Electric Vehicle Sales - In October, electric vehicle sales in Europe decreased by 8% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 33.9% [11]. - Domestic electric vehicle manufacturers like BYD and NIO reported varying delivery figures, with BYD achieving a 66% year-on-year increase in October [12][13]. Lithium Battery Supply Chain - The report tracks price movements in the lithium battery supply chain, noting slight increases in VC prices and stable electrolyte prices [14]. - The cost reductions in key materials such as lithium carbonate and nickel are expected to significantly lower battery production costs [15][17]. Market Trends - The report suggests that the energy storage sector is poised for growth, driven by increasing demand and new project developments [1]. - The photovoltaic sector is also highlighted as having a positive outlook, with recommendations for key companies in the solar supply chain [1].