分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 软件互联网行业领涨 A 股震荡上行 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -19% -14% -9% -4% 2% 7% 12% 17% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,295.70 | -0.43 | | 深证成指 | 10,432.54 | -1.26 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,872.55 | -0.88 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,644.89 | -0.91 | | 中证 500 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the light industry manufacturing sector [2][9]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in sentiment due to policy support, with signs of improvement in market conditions [2][7]. - The sector's performance has lagged behind major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, with a year-to-date increase of only 0.31% as of November 27, 2024, compared to increases of 11.26% and 13.87% for the aforementioned indices [4][47]. - The industry is witnessing a valuation recovery, particularly in the home furnishing and other light industry segments, which are still at historically low valuation levels [4][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached CNY 454.60 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.14%, a significant improvement from the previous year's decline of 1.39% [5][73]. - However, Q3 2024 saw a slight revenue decline of 1.00% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 30.32% compared to the same quarter in the previous year [5][75]. 2. Paper Industry - The paper sector is expected to see a price recovery due to improving supply-demand dynamics, with waste paper prices beginning to rebound from a low point in Q4 2024 [6][94]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies with integrated pulp and paper operations, as well as those in the specialty paper sector [9][25]. 3. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is benefiting from government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and demand for home products [7][26]. - The sector's valuation remains low, with potential for upward correction, particularly for leading companies that can leverage external demand [9][30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the paper and home furnishing sectors, including Sun Paper, Xianhe Shares, and Oppein Home [9][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [205]. Core Insights - The media sector is currently experiencing significant volatility, with overall performance under pressure due to external economic and consumption environment changes, as well as internal factors such as content product cycles and tax policy changes. The outlook for 2025 suggests a focus on "content product and cultural consumption recovery," "cultural industry going global," and "high dividend defensiveness" as key investment dimensions [5][195]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 22, 2024, the CITIC Media Index has increased by 4.56% in 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 12.67% [34][41]. - The media sector's performance has shown significant elasticity, with a maximum increase of 47.99% in early 2024, followed by a maximum decline of 32.27% from March to September [37][41]. - The media sector ranks 17th among 31 CITIC primary industries, indicating a mid-tier position [34]. Dimension One: Cultural Content and Consumption Recovery - Policies are encouraging cultural consumption, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase in domestic service retail sales as of October 2024 [56]. - The gaming market is showing signs of recovery, with a 5.59% year-on-year increase in actual sales revenue for the first ten months of 2024, reaching 268.12 billion yuan [62]. - The film market has faced significant demand challenges, with total box office revenue down 22.13% year-on-year as of October 2024 [75]. Dimension Two: Cultural Products Going Global - The cultural industry is encouraged to expand internationally, with the gaming sector leading the way, achieving over 163.66 billion yuan in overseas sales in 2023, marking an increase of nearly 800% since 2013 [126]. - The short drama market is rapidly growing, with over 40 applications entering overseas markets and achieving significant download and revenue growth [139]. Dimension Three: High Dividend Attributes of the Publishing Sector - The publishing sector is characterized by high dividends, with average dividend yields around 6% for several major companies [180]. - Recent regulatory changes emphasize the importance of increasing cash dividends, with over 95% of listed companies reporting record-high cash dividends in 2024 [176]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cultural content and those benefiting from the recovery in cultural consumption, as well as those with robust dividend yields in the publishing sector [195][200].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating to the company for the first time, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][15]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a successful collaboration with Huawei, accelerating its progress in smart vehicle technology. The partnership spans product development, manufacturing, sales, and service, aiming to create luxury smart connected electric vehicles [3][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 32.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, but a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, which reached 625 million yuan, up 239.86% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company plans to invest over 20 billion yuan in research and development over the next five years, launching more than 30 smart electric vehicle products [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.72% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.57% [3][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 11.36%, showing improvements in profitability compared to previous quarters [3][6]. - The company forecasts revenues of 45.93 billion yuan, 60.65 billion yuan, and 74.12 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][7]. Sales and Production Insights - The total sales volume for Q3 2024 was 109,200 units, with a year-on-year increase of 9.86%. Passenger vehicle sales specifically grew by 32.56% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its asset structure and improving resource allocation efficiency, which has led to a significant increase in asset disposal gains [3][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a projected increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by the launch of new smart electric vehicle models and ongoing collaboration with Huawei [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the new materials industry [6]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in November, with the new materials index rising by 4.12%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.10%, resulting in a 5.22 percentage point outperformance [2][32]. - The new materials index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) is 26.61 times, which is a 4.45% increase from the previous month and is at the 72.90 percentile of historical valuations since 2021 [6][42]. - The growth in the new materials sector is expected to continue due to the increasing demand from China's manufacturing industry [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The new materials index showed a strong performance in November, ranking third among 30 major industry sectors [32]. - The trading volume for the new materials sector in November was 15,133.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.46% compared to the previous month [32]. - In November, half of the stocks in the new materials sector rose, with lithium battery chemicals leading the gains at 17.42% [35][38]. Key Industry Data Tracking - In October, the sales of semiconductors in China continued to grow for 11 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [16]. - The export volume of superhard materials in October was 14,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.27%, while the export value reached 154 million USD, up 10.88% year-on-year [17]. - Prices of rare gases showed a slight decline in October, with helium priced at 659 yuan per bottle, down 2.23% [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the new materials industry will continue to develop due to the growth prospects in related sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy [6].

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -19% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,309.78 | 1.53 | | 深证成指 | 10,566.10 | 2.25 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,907.04 | 1.74 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,678.43 | 1.55 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a fluctuation with a rebound after an initial decline, showing a general upward trend throughout the day [7][17] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,309.78 points, up 1.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.25% to 10,566.10 points [8][17] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index are 13.82 times and 35.96 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [17] A-share Market Overview - On November 27, the A-share market opened lower and fluctuated, finding support around 3,227 points before recovering in the afternoon [7][17] - Key sectors performing well included gaming, consumer electronics, aerospace and military, and software development, while automotive, battery, oil, and mining sectors lagged [7][17] - The total trading volume for the day was 14,877 billion, above the median of the last three years [17] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on monitoring policy, funding, and external factors [17] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as consumer electronics, gaming, military industry, and communication services [17]

Economic Overview - In October 2024, China's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, maintaining a recovery trend from the previous month[14] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, a significant increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[21] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to October 2024 totaled 423,222 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[23] Regional Insights: Henan Province - In October 2024, Henan's industrial added value increased by 10.6% year-on-year, marking the first double-digit growth of the year[34] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 2,573.58 billion yuan, growing by 7.1% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[39] - Real estate development investment in Henan decreased by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[28] Investment and Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment in China rose by 9.3% year-on-year, driven by increased investment in consumer goods manufacturing[25] - The manufacturing sector in Henan saw significant growth, particularly in the automotive and electrical equipment industries, with growth rates of 42.4% and 24.6% respectively[34] Trade Performance - In the first ten months of 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 36.02 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports by 3.2%[30] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade value reaching 5.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%[30] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation affecting economic recovery, insufficient domestic demand recovery, and escalating trade tensions[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [77]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has experienced a significant slowdown in revenue growth since 2020, with 2024 showing further contraction. Only segments like liquor, condiments, soft drinks, and snacks recorded positive growth, while others faced declines [3][4][10]. - The profitability of the food and beverage sector has generally increased due to falling upstream prices rather than improvements in product structure, indicating reliance on external factors rather than internal enhancements [4][29]. - The return on equity (ROE) for food and beverage assets has been on a long-term decline, with segments like liquor and beer showing stable or increasing returns, while others like prepared dishes and health products have seen significant drops [4][31][34]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has reached a low point, reflecting adjustments to changes in performance growth. The sector's valuation is expected to continue to decline in the long term [5][50]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Since 2020, the food and beverage sector has seen a general slowdown in revenue growth, with a 3.03 percentage point decline in average annual growth from 2016-2019 to 2020-2023. In 2024, the revenue growth further contracted to 3.92%, down 5.38 percentage points from the previous period [10][13][17]. - Only liquor, condiments, soft drinks, and snacks have shown positive revenue growth, while other segments like prepared foods and health products have recorded significant declines [13][17]. Cost and Profitability - The sector's gross margin increased by 1.86 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 50.92%. This increase is attributed to a decline in costs rather than product upgrades [29]. - The overall profitability increase is primarily due to external price reductions rather than internal product improvements, indicating a reliance on external market conditions [4][29]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed in the secondary market, with a cumulative decline of 51.98% since the peak in 2021. Only soft drinks and snacks have recorded positive returns during this period [5][43][45]. - The sector's valuation has dropped to a historical low, with a current valuation of 20.04 times earnings, reflecting a necessary adjustment to the slowing growth [50]. 2025 Outlook and Investment Strategy - Revenue growth for food and beverage companies is expected to remain in the single digits for 2025, with a forecasted growth rate between 5% and 8%. The long-term outlook suggests further narrowing of growth rates [61][62]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in emerging markets such as prepared foods, baking, pre-mixed drinks, health products, snacks, and yeast [67][68].