宏观研究 大公国际：社融同比多增，政府债提供支撑——7 月社融数据 解读 技术研究部（研究院） | 宏观债市团队 | 赫彤 | 2024 年 8 月 20 日 摘要：7 月社融同比多增，债券发行成本持续下行使债券成为社融主要支撑 项，社融结构持续调整。人民币贷款减少，居民和企业均出现去杠杆现象，实体 经济融资意愿偏弱，进一步促需求、提信心的政策加码预期提升。政府债券、企 业债券净融资额同比增长，为拉动社融的主要分项。M1 和 M2 剪刀差走阔，短期 资金需求走弱，指向消费需求不足。 7 月社融同比多增，债券发行成本持续下行使债券成为社融主要支撑项，社 融结构持续调整。7 月新增社融 7,708 亿元，同比多增 2,342 亿元，增量低于近 三年同期均值，人民币贷款同比少增及政府债券、企业债券净融资额同比增长是 主要原因。7 月末社会融资规模存量为 395.72 万亿元，同比增长 8.2%，较 6 月 末回升 0.1 个百分点。7 月人民币贷款减少 767 亿元，2023 年以来首次减少，同 比多减 1,131 亿元。在货币延续宽松的背景下，推动社会整体融资成本稳中有降， 政策在债市得到充分展现。央行 2 月 ...

1 信用风险展望 信用风险展望 |钢铁行业 钢铁行业 钢铁行业 2024 年半年度信用风险展望 全年盈利承压 信用风险可控 目录 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------| | 行业政策...................................................2 | | 供需分析...................................................3 | | 价格趋势...................................................5 | | 盈利能力...................................................6 | | 债务压力...................................................6 | | 信用质量...................................................7 | 分析师 房思旗 ...

宏观政策 大公国际：积极应对风险挑战，经济仍需加力提效—7 技术研究部（研究院） 涂文婕 2024 年 7 月 30 日 重点关注一：今年首提"经济运行出现分化"、"新旧动能转换存在阵痛"， 说明保持经济规模的增长之外，要高度重视现有经济结构不平衡发展带来的问 题，下一步工作重点在于经济结构调整，稳步度过新旧动能转换的关键期。 当前，世界百年未有之大变局正朝着纵横交错、挑战重重的方向加速演进， 中国发展与世界变局"同步交织、相互激荡"。从国际环境看，国际形势的不确 定因素明显增加，中国需要解决的矛盾和问题比以往更加严峻和复杂；从国内环 境看，中国经济正处在周期性和结构性问题叠加、新旧动能转换的关键期。中国 如何准确把握战略机遇，积极应对风险挑战，把握新一轮科技创新和产业变革先 机？成为解答时代命题，展现大国担当的关键要义。本次会议是在二十届三中全 会胜利召开后对经济工作做出部署，对下半年工作具有重要意义。 - 会议解读 重点关注二：会议首提"宏观政策要持续用力、更加给力"，今年货币财政 政策加大了逆周期调节力度，货币政策"五招连发"促经济、超长期国债发行拉 动投资和消费，但是仍然面临资金空转、地方财政乏力等堵 ...

Group 1: Green and Sustainable Development - The bond market in China actively supports national strategies such as green development, poverty alleviation, and rural revitalization through various financial products like green bonds and poverty alleviation bonds[1] - The bond market guides capital towards green industries and environmental projects, facilitating the country's economic green transition[1] Group 2: Integration of Technology and Finance - The bond market incorporates technologies like big data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain to enhance market transparency and efficiency, ensuring transaction authenticity and security[1] - Innovative bond types such as technology innovation bonds and venture capital bonds provide stable long-term funding for high-tech enterprises and innovative SMEs, promoting technology transfer and industrial upgrading[1] Group 3: Direct Financing and Market Structure - The direct financing ratio in China remains low, with bond financing peaking at only 12.9% of social financing in 2018 and dropping to 4.6% in 2023, before rebounding to approximately 8.1% by mid-2023[2] - The report emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of a multi-layered bond market to meet diverse financing needs and reduce reliance on bank loans[2] Group 4: Risk Prevention and Regulatory Framework - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the regulatory framework to prevent major risks and ensure the healthy and stable development of the capital market[2] - It calls for unified standards in bond issuance, pricing, trading, and information disclosure to improve market transparency and liquidity, thereby mitigating risks[2]

总目标 继续完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推进 改革地位 把改革摆在更加突出的位置，以全面深化改革 工作总基调 完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，坚持稳中求 进工作总基调，解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进、求真务实 坚持改革步伐 • 完成本决定改革任务，包括15个部分，60条300多项重要改革举措 • 全面建成高水平社会主义市场经济体制，中国特色社会主义制度更加 完善，基本实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化，基本实现社会主义 现代化，为到本世纪中叶全面建成社会主义现代化强国奠定坚实基础 构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制 坚持和完善基本经济制度 健全推动经济高质量发展体制机制 加快完善现代市场体系 构建支持全面创新体制机制 加快转变政府职能 健全宏观经济治理体系 深化财税体制改革 完善城乡融合发展体制机制 健全城乡发展一体化体制机制 完善高水平对外开放体制机制 构建开放型经济新体制 健全全过程人民民主制度体系 加强社会主义民主政治制度建设 完善中国特色社会主义法治体系 推进法治中国建设 深化文化体制机制改革 强化权力运行制约和监督体系 健全保障和改善民生制度体系 推进文化体制机制创新 深化生态文明体制改革 推进社会事业改革 ...

大公国际：从制造大国到制造强国——中国经济转型升级的 摘要 一、中国制造由大国向强国跃迁 虽然我国制造业增加值占比已跃居世界首位，但高端制造业增加值占比及在 全球价值链中的分工地位依然较低，基础研发投入较主要发达国家相比还有较大 的差距，制造业整体发展结构还有待优化，二十届三中全会也指出，要推动经济 实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。从制造业增加值结构来看，美国、德国、日 本的机械和运输设备增加值占比较高，德国运输设备、机械、电气设备等中高端 制造业增加值在整体制造业中占比较大，其中，运输设备制造业占整体制造业比 重为 22.0%，机械制造业占比 17.6%，两者合计占比 39.6%，而中国运输设备制 造业占比 8.3%，机械制造业占比为 7.9%，两者合计 16.2%，中高端制造业占比 相对还较低；从基础研发投入角度来看，2023 年我国基础研究投入占全年研发 投入的 6.70%，英国、美国、法国、意大利、新加坡均超过 15%，日本、韩国高 于 10%。整体来看，我国基础研究投入与世界主要发达国家比还有较大差距，部 分关键核心技术受制于人，在全球制造业价值链中处于中低端环节，研发、设计 和品牌建设能力亟待提升 ...

Group 1: Historical Context - The exploration of Chinese-style modernization began under a planned economy with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) from 1949 to 1978, where SOEs had no operational autonomy and were entirely government-controlled, leading to a disconnect between production and social demand[4] - The concept of "Chinese-style modernization" was formally introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, marking the start of economic reforms and the transition to a market economy[5] - The period from 2002 to 2022 saw significant reforms in SOEs, transitioning to a regulatory framework under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and focusing on market-oriented operations[39] Group 2: Current Role of SOEs - SOEs are identified as key "drivers" of Chinese-style modernization, playing a crucial role in implementing national strategies and contributing to high-quality development[3] - The latest directives from the 20th Central Committee emphasize the need for SOEs to enhance their roles in technological innovation, industry leadership, and safety support, particularly in critical sectors[10] - The focus on optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned capital is expected to accelerate, with SOEs being pivotal in the new development pattern and high-quality growth[3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Key initiatives include enhancing technological capabilities and digital transformation within non-financial SOEs, which involves increasing R&D investment and fostering high-level talent[7] - The "three concentrations" strategy aims to direct state capital towards critical industries related to national security and public welfare, as well as emerging strategic sectors[15] - The emphasis on improving governance and operational mechanisms within SOEs is crucial for enhancing their core competitiveness and ensuring effective capital management[16] Group 4: Future Directions - The 20th Central Committee's recent decisions highlight the importance of SOEs in maintaining supply chain stability and resource security, particularly in sectors like food and energy[26] - Continuous financial support for technology enterprises is essential, with policies encouraging angel investment and venture capital to foster innovation[24] - The integration of advanced technologies and green practices in SOEs is necessary for achieving competitive advantages and contributing to the modernization of the industrial system[25]

Manufacturing Scale and Structure - China's manufacturing added value reached 33 trillion yuan in 2023, ranking first globally for 14 consecutive years, accounting for 30% of the global total[1] - China has 41 major industrial categories, 207 medium categories, and 666 subcategories, making it the only country with all industrial classifications defined by the United Nations[1] - China's manufacturing added value is 1.9 times that of the US and 5.5 times that of Germany[1] Challenges in Technological Innovation - China's basic research investment accounted for 6.70% of total R&D expenditure in 2023, significantly lower than the 15%+ in the UK, US, France, Italy, and Singapore[26] - Key technologies in high-end manufacturing, such as industrial machine tools, lithography machines, and chip manufacturing, remain constrained by foreign dependence[4] - China's transportation equipment and machinery manufacturing account for 16.2% of total manufacturing added value, compared to 39.6% in Germany[26] Industrial Structure and Global Value Chain - China's manufacturing is dominated by low- and medium-end products, with insufficient supply of high-end products to meet consumption upgrades[15] - China primarily engages in labor-intensive processing and assembly in the global value chain, with limited participation in high-value-added design, R&D, and branding[15] - The top 5 manufacturing sub-sectors in China (basic metals, electrical equipment, chemicals, food & beverages, and non-metallic minerals) account for 61.0% of total manufacturing added value[12] Financing and Capital Market Support - China's financing system for manufacturing innovation faces constraints in credit, equity, and bond markets, particularly for SMEs and innovative enterprises[21] - The report suggests improving the multi-level capital market, including optimizing the STAR Market and ChiNext, expanding the sci-tech innovation bond market, and increasing government-guided fund investments[17] Digital Transformation and Intelligent Manufacturing - Digitalization, networking, and intelligent manufacturing are key drivers for China's manufacturing transformation, with digitalization as the foundation, networking as the bridge, and intelligent manufacturing as the goal[7]

中国式现代化 三中全会最新部署 这一时期，国有企业作为政府部门的分支机构或附属机构存在，基本没有自 主运营权利，其生产经营、人事、资产等完全需要由政府进行计划安排，造成国 有企业生产和社会需求脱节，对社会经济发展支持作用甚微。 大公国际：中国式现代化系列研究之三 —— 新中国成立尤其改革开放以来，国有企业作为中国式现代化的重要"推动者"， 在服务落实国家战略中发挥着重要作用。当前，新一轮科技革命和产业革命已进 入关键时期，结合二十届三中全会的最新部署，下阶段国有经济布局优化和结构 调整将加快推进，国有企业在科技创新、产业引领、安全支撑等方面将发挥重要 的功能性作用，为构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展、推进中国式现代化作出更 大贡献。 2002 年） 专题研究 技术研究部（研究院） 张晗菡 2024 年 7 月 23 日 （一）中国式现代化探索初期：计划经济体制下的国有企业（1949-1978 年） （二）中国式的现代化概念形成与发展期：市场经济体制下国有企业（1978- 1 / 9 战略（1987 年、十三大）、两个百年目标（1997 年、十五大）等阶段性的发展目 标。 国有企业助力中国式现代化的路径研究 结合 ...

宏观研究 长质效将持续提升 一、上半年经济运行总体平稳，5%的经济增长来之不易 （二）二季度经济增速有所回落，有效需求不足等结构性挑战犹存 工业生产保持较快增长。上半年，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.0%， 拉动经济增长 1.9 个百分点，其中装备制造业和高技术制造业增势强劲；服务业 宏观研究|经济分析 稳步增长，信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业延续较快发展势 头，增加值分别同比增长 11.9%和 9.8%，合计拉动经济增长 1.0 个百分点；农业 生产形势平稳，农林牧渔业增加值同比增长 3.7%，拉动经济增长 0.2 个百分点。 上半年，我国规模以上装备制造业和规模以上高技术制造业增加值分别同比 增长 7.8%和 8.7%，高于全部规上工业 1.8 和 2.7 个百分点。其中规模以上电子 及通信设备制造业、航空航天器及设备制造业增加值同比分别增长 12.5%、10.0%， 3D 打印设备、新能源汽车、集成电路产品产量同比分别增长 51.6%、34.3%、28.9%。 此外，在大规模设备更新政策带动下，上半年，规模以上金属冶炼设备、机床数 控装置、农产品加工专用设备产量同比分别增长 19. ...