Market Overview - The issuance scale of consumer loan ABS products has steadily increased, reaching a total issuance of 96 products and a cumulative scale of CNY 1,923 billion by the end of 2023[15] - In 2023, 24 products were issued by 10 initiating institutions, with a total issuance scale of CNY 410 billion, representing a growth of 35.59% compared to the previous year[15] Securitization Characteristics - The average remaining term of the underlying asset pools for the issued consumer loan ABS products is generally within 30 months, indicating a high early repayment rate[9] - Among the 68 cleared consumer loan ABS products, 70.83% have completed liquidation, with a total liquidation scale of CNY 1,394.52 billion[12] Issuance and Liquidation Structure - The majority of consumer loan ABS products are issued by consumer finance companies, accounting for 69 products with a total issuance of CNY 1,159 billion, while commercial banks issued 27 products totaling CNY 764 billion[18] - The liquidation methods include repurchase and original distribution, with repurchase accounting for 49.86% and original distribution for 50.14% of the total liquidation scale[14] Risk and Return Analysis - The average expected term for the subordinate securities at issuance was 29.31 months, with an average actual term of 13.10 months, reflecting the flexibility of personal consumer loan repayments[46] - The internal rate of return (IRR) for subordinate securities ranges from 5.25% to 15.01%, with an average of 8.43% for externally placed products[54] Default Rates - The cumulative default rate for asset pools of consumer finance companies is concentrated above 3%, which is significantly higher than that of commercial banks[33] - The average cumulative default rate for products cleared through repurchase is 2.45%, with a maximum of 5.45%[58]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the cultural tourism investment sector, with expectations of continued high prosperity in 2024 [1][14]. Core Insights - The cultural tourism investment companies have seen improved profitability due to the strong recovery of the cultural tourism industry in 2023, although they still face significant short-term debt pressure [1][9]. - The number of cultural tourism investment companies has increased, but remains relatively small, with a concentration in the East China region, particularly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [2][9]. - The revenue structure of cultural tourism investment companies is primarily derived from scenic area operations, construction income, and other related business activities, with a predominance of development-type companies [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The cultural tourism market is expected to maintain a high level of activity in 2024, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating the sector [14]. Profitability and Financial Health - The profitability of cultural tourism investment companies has improved in 2023, with average operating income rising from 2.21 billion to 2.88 billion yuan [9][11]. - Despite improvements, many companies still struggle with high financial leverage, with some exceeding 80% debt-to-asset ratios [9][11]. - Approximately 78% of companies have cash reserves that do not effectively cover short-term debts, indicating ongoing financial pressure [9][11]. Market Dynamics - The cultural tourism sector has benefited from a significant rebound in domestic travel, with 4.89 billion trips taken in 2023, a 93.3% increase year-on-year [7][9]. - The report highlights a disparity in resource endowment across regions, affecting the operational capabilities of cultural tourism investment companies [8][9]. Government Support and Policy - Central and local governments have implemented various supportive measures to boost the cultural tourism industry, including financial assistance and policy incentives [14]. - The report notes that the relationship between cultural tourism investment companies and local governments is generally weaker compared to other types of urban investment companies [8][9].

2024年4月12日，国务院发文《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干 意见》（以下简称"新国九条"），"新国九条"是继2004年、2014年两个"国九条"之后，再 次相隔十年，国务院根据当前经济金融形势出台的资本市场指导性文件。2004 年国九条将发 展资本市场提升到国家战略任务的高度，提出 "积极稳妥解决股权分置问题"，推动资本市 场制度框架的建立；2014 年国九条提出"积极稳妥推进股票发行注册制改革"，"加快多层次 股权市场建设"，"鼓励市场化并购重组"。新"国九条"相比此前两份文件，更加突出资本市 场的政治性、人民性和强监管、防风险、促高质量发展的主线。 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | www.ccxi.com.cn | | | | | | 中诚信国际 | ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 1 2 20 02 24 4 年 年第 4 月 16 15 期 日 | 月价格数据点评 通胀水平延续回落、物价稳中 进出口数据点评 宏观经济 | | | 基数走高 3 月出口回落，外贸结构有所改善 —— 2024 年 3 月进出口数据点评 | | 作者 : | | | 中诚信国际 研究院 执行院长 袁海霞 | 基数走高 3 月出口增速低于预期，一季度出口温和回升。受全 | | hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn | 球制造业以及半导体周期回暖影响， 1-3 月 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评 论 收费公路行业特别评论 2024年4月 路产到期压力逐步显现，对收费公路运营企业 信用影响整体可控 目录 随着收费公路的到期问题日益突出，路产面临的到期压力亦逐步显 要点 1 现，目前对于已到期的政府还贷高速，各地大多通过“统贷统还” 主要关注因素 2 方式继续收费；经营性高速主要通过改扩建方式延续收费，部分到 结论 5 期后无偿移交至政府；虽然改扩建、到期移交对收费公路企业或产 生不同程度的影响，但总体而言，收费公路运营企业目前整体财务 杠杆较低，经营获现能力较强，同时，随着多元化业务的发展，未 来几年路产到期对收费公路运营企业的信用水平影响可控。 联络人 要点 作者 企业评级部  政府还贷高速通过“统贷统还”的方式继续收费，直至债务偿 王 昭 027-87339288 清的模式，多地已经有所实践，而经营性高速仍主要依据现行 zhwang02@ccxi.com.cn 的收费公路管理条例，其收费期限主要集中在20~30年。目前 其他联络人 经营性高速主要通过改扩建方式延续收费，部分到期后无偿移 龚天璇 027-87339288 交至政府。 txgong@ ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | www.ccxi.com.cn | | | 中诚信国际行业展望 | | | | | 中诚信国际 | | | | | | | 2024 | 年 4 月 | | 行业展望 证券行业 | | | | | | | | | | 2024 年中国证券行业展望：行业分化加 | | | | | | | 目录 | | | 剧，兼并整合或将再现 | | 摘要 | 1 | | 资本市场全面深化改革持续推进、多层次资本市场建设进一步完善，证 | | 市场环境及行业政策 | 2 | | 券行业向高质量发展迈出坚实步伐。 2023 年以来证券行业分化加剧， | | 证券行业 IPO | 及再融资情况 3 | | ...

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic indicators for January-February 2024 show a steady improvement, with industrial value-added growth at 7%, up 2.4 percentage points from December 2023[9] - Fixed asset investment growth has marginally improved but remains down 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, with real estate investment declining by 9%[9][24] - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024, aligning with market expectations[9][24] Production and Investment - Industrial production continues to show resilience, with 39 out of 41 industrial sectors reporting positive growth, particularly in high-tech and consumer goods manufacturing[16][19] - Manufacturing investment has accelerated due to equipment upgrades, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growth at 7.5%[16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 6.3% year-on-year, although it is still significantly lower than the previous year's figures[24] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales (retail sales) grew by 5.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from December 2023, indicating a weak recovery in consumer spending[28] - Service consumption remains strong, with a 12.3% increase in service retail sales, while goods retail sales grew by only 4.6%[28] - Despite a vibrant tourism sector during the Spring Festival, per capita spending remains weak, down 10% compared to 2019 levels[28] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 20.5% drop in new residential sales area and a 29.3% decrease in sales revenue year-on-year[24] - The decline in real estate investment has slowed marginally, but the overall trend remains negative, with significant uncertainty about a potential recovery[24][33] - The consumer confidence index in the real estate sector remains low, indicating ongoing pressure on housing sales[33]

2 月 11 日，巴基斯坦选举委员会公布 2024 年国民议会选举最终 结果：隶属于正义运动党的独立参选人集团获得 92 席，处于领先地位， 穆斯林联盟获得 79 席，人民党获得 54 席。但由于没有政党获得超过 半数（168）席位，需要各方协商联合组建内阁政府并召开国民议会会 议选举总理。 巴基斯坦大选导致该国政治不确定性攀升，或影响该国与 IMF 达成新贷款协议。目前，穆斯林联盟（纳瓦兹·谢里夫派）和人民党 （比拉瓦尔·布托·扎尔达里派）决定联手组建联合政府以遏制正义 运动党（伊姆兰·汗派）的领先地位，并计划与其他小型政党共同提 名前总理夏巴兹·谢里夫为总理职位候选人。根据巴基斯坦宪法，看 守政府和选举委员会应在 2 月 29 日前召开国民议会会议并选举新总 理。然而，由于人民党意图获得巴基斯坦重要部门以及国民议会议长 和参议院主席的职位，两党在历经 5 轮谈判后尚未就权力分享方案达 成一致。与此同时，多数巴基斯坦民众仍支持正义运动党，若该党派 在组阁过程中持续被边缘化，将进一步激发该国民众不满情绪，抬升 该国社会动荡及政局波动风险。 3 国际宏观资讯周报 期内改善工人的经济状况，但在青年失业率高和经济压 ...

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