Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In October, new RMB loans increased by 500 billion, down from 1.59 trillion in the previous month[1] - The social financing scale increment in October was 1.3958 trillion, significantly lower than the previous value of 3.7634 trillion[2] - By the end of October, the total social financing scale was 403.45 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[5] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Policy - M2, the broad money supply, grew by 7.5% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 7.0% and the previous value of 6.8%[3] - M1, the narrow money supply, showed a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, which is an improvement from the expected decline of 7.2%[3] - The overall increase in money supply indicates a continued reasonable growth, supporting a loose monetary policy[3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The decline in new social financing and credit demand suggests a slowdown in credit transmission from broad money to credit[5] - The improvement in household loan demand, particularly in short-term loans, is attributed to policies stimulating consumption[4] - The overall financing demand is expected to gradually recover as fiscal policies and real estate measures take effect, despite current short-term declines[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.4%[1] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.3%, compared to an expected decrease of 0.1% and a previous value of 0%[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in consumer prices[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - October's PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, which is worse than the expected decrease of 2.5% and the previous decrease of 2.8%[4] - The month-on-month PPI decline has narrowed due to recovering domestic industrial demand, despite the overall downward trend in international commodity prices[4] - The impact of production material prices on PPI was a decrease of 3.3%, contributing approximately 2.45 percentage points to the PPI decline[4] Group 3: Market Trends - Domestic traditional infrastructure investment is accelerating, while manufacturing investment remains high; however, real estate investment demand is still weak in the short term[5] - The overall demand for terminal goods is recovering, supported by seasonal demand and increased monetary and fiscal policy efforts[5] - Future CPI is expected to rise due to improved market demand and the gradual elimination of high base effects from the previous year[5]

Group 1: Trade Overview - In October 2024, China's total import and export volume reached $522.398 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, compared to a previous value of 1.5%[1] - Exports amounted to $309.058 billion, up 12.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected increase of 5%[2] - Imports were $213.34 billion, down 2.3% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2%[3] Group 2: Trade Surplus and Key Partners - The trade surplus for October was $95.27 billion, higher than the expected $75 billion and the previous value of $81.71 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 71.35%[4] - ASEAN was the largest trading partner, with a trade volume of $82.1 billion, accounting for 15.71% of total trade, followed by the EU at $64.8 billion (12.4%) and the US at $59.8 billion (11.45%)[5] - The largest export category was electromechanical products, which accounted for 60.8% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%[6] Group 3: Import Dynamics - The largest import category was also electromechanical products, which accounted for 40.53% of total imports, with a year-on-year growth of 2.38%[7] - The main import partner was ASEAN, with imports totaling $34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.33%[8] - The trade deficit was most significant for crude oil, with a deficit of $24.3 billion, a decrease of $1.4 billion from the previous period[9]

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.5% but down from the previous value of 4.7%[1] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 0.9%, slightly below the expected 1% and up from the previous 0.7%[1] Industrial Production - In September, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.5%, marking a rise of 0.9 percentage points[2] - The mining sector grew by 3.7%, manufacturing by 5.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 10.1%[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September rose by 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[2] - Categories such as household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant increase of 20.5% year-on-year, while automotive sales grew by 0.4%[2] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September, fixed asset investment grew by 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.3% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Infrastructure investment in September increased by 2.2%, up from the previous 1.2%, marking a rise of 1 percentage point[3] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 10.8%, although the decline narrowed by 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment in September rose by 9.7% year-on-year, up from the previous 8.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points[3] - High-tech industries continue to maintain a high growth rate, supported by government policies and market demand[3] Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market and increasing fiscal spending are expected to support economic recovery and stabilize the market[4] - The overall domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, with positive expectations for future growth driven by policy measures[4]

Trade Overview - In September 2024, China's total import and export volume reached $525.714 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, down from the previous value of 5.2% and a decline of 3.7%[1] - Exports amounted to $303.712 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year, but below the expected increase of 6% and the previous increase of 8.7%, reflecting a decline of 6.3%[2] - Imports totaled $222 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.9% and the previous increase of 0.5%, showing a decline of 0.2%[3] Trade Surplus and Key Partners - The trade surplus was $81.71 billion, lower than the expected $89.8 billion and the previous $91.02 billion, but still up 8.8% year-on-year[4] - ASEAN was the largest trading partner, with a trade volume of $83.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.92%[2] - The second-largest partner was the EU, with a trade volume of $65.1 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.43% year-on-year[2] Export and Import Dynamics - The main export products included electromechanical products, accounting for 60.7% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 3%[3] - Imports of electromechanical products also increased by 5.05%, making up 40.61% of total imports[4] - The largest trade surplus was in automobiles, amounting to $8.34 billion, while the largest trade deficit was in crude oil, at $25.7 billion[5]

Economic Overview - The fundamental conditions of China's economy remain unchanged, characterized by a broad market, strong resilience, and significant potential[1] - Economic recovery has slowed down since Q3 2024, with consumer confidence and income growth declining, evidenced by a mere 2.1% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in August[3] - Exports grew unexpectedly by 8.5% in August, but trade tensions with the US and EU pose increased risks[3] Policy Measures - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for targeted and effective policy measures to achieve annual economic and social development goals[2] - Fiscal policy will focus on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures, and accelerating the issuance of special bonds[6] - Monetary policy will involve lowering the reserve requirement ratio and implementing significant interest rate cuts to support economic recovery[7] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market remains weak, with August seeing a 12.6% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 17.1% drop in sales value[8] - Policies will be adjusted to stabilize the real estate market, including optimizing existing stock and improving quality[8] Capital Market - Efforts will be made to boost the capital market by guiding long-term funds into the market and addressing barriers to investment from social security and insurance funds[9] - Recent monetary easing measures and supportive policies for the capital market are expected to enhance market sentiment[9]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 病 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 据海关统计，中国2024年8月进出口总额（以美元计）5262.73亿美元，同比 5.2%，前值为7.1%，下降1.9%。其中，出口3086.47亿美元，同比上升8.7%，预 期上升6.6%，前值上升7%，上升1.7%，超预期上升；进口2176.26亿美元，同比上 升0.5%，预期上升2.5%，前值上升7.2%，下降6.7%；贸易顺差910.2亿美元，预期 811亿美元，前值846.5亿美元。 2024年9月10日 [Table8_T月itl国e] 出口好于预期，进出口仍具韧性 ——宏观数据观察 [table_main] 事件要点： 摘要： 8月我国出口受去年基数效应较低，海外需求仍然具有一定的韧性，欧盟需求短期有所加 快以及赶出口等原因，高于市场预期。8月以来，全球制造业景气有所回落，增长有所放 缓，美国以及全球需求有所放缓，对出口支撑有所减弱。国内方面，经济复苏不及预期且 偏慢，投资需求增速有 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 宏观 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2024年9月9日 [Tab8le月_TitCleP]I同比继续回升但低于市场预期 ——宏观数据观察 [table_main] 事件要点： 中国9月CPI同比增长0.6%，预期0.7%，前值0.5%；8月PPI同比增长-1.8%， 预期-1.4%，前值-0.8%。 摘要： 8月CPI同比回升但低于市场预期。上游端受国际大宗商品价格回落及国内部分工业品市场 需求不足等因素影响，全国PPI环比继续下降，由于需求不足工业品价格大幅下跌，同比 降幅扩大；8月份，消费需求整体平稳，但部分地区高温降雨天气影响以及猪肉价格大幅 上涨，CPI环比超季节性上涨，同比小幅回升但低于预期，短期通胀仍旧较低。目前国内 传统基建投资放缓、制造业投资维持高位，房地产投资需求仍旧偏弱，以及需求季节性放 缓，整体终端商品需求仍旧偏弱，内需型商品价格维持偏弱震荡。而且，由于国外需求放 缓以及中东地缘风险扰动减弱，原油价格整体回 ...

商品市场的影响。 但由于需求弹性弱于供给，供应整体较为充裕。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 15 Fin 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 国内外宏观：海外宏观方面，由于美国经济有所放缓、通胀回落、美联储释放9月降息信号， 美元持续走弱。虽然短期需求整体放缓，但市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧缓解，能源、有色 等国际大宗商品价格短期有一定的支撑；市场风险偏好大幅升温。后期继续关注经济、通胀 情况以及美联储货币政策预期对市场的影响。国内宏观方面，国内经济复苏动能有所放缓， 贸易摩擦风险加大，市场情绪低迷，短期国内风险偏好降温。虽然政治局会议强调实现年内 经济目标，央行连续降息、地产政策刺激进一步加强、财政支持设备更新，以及以旧换新消 费刺激政策落地，但政策力度不及预期，短期对国内股市和人民币汇率的支撑不强。中期关 注国内地产政策刺激效果、国内消费、投资、国内基建和房地产实际需求情况对内需型大宗 2024年9月2日 [Table_Title] 美联储即将开启降息，国内政策支持力度有 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 术游观 分析师： 载 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2024年9月2日 [Table_Title] 8月制造业PMI低于预期，经济整体维持扩张 ——宏观数据观察 [table_main] 事件要点： 中国8月官方制造业PMI为49.1%，预期49.5%，前值49.4%；中国8月官方非制 造业PMI为50.3%，预期50.1，前值50.2%。综合PMI为50.1%，前值50.2%。 摘要： 8月份，由于国内需求季节性回落，企业生产经营有所放缓。制造业PMI、非制造业PMI 和综合PMI分别为49.1%、50.3%和50.1%，分别比上月下降0.3、上升0.1和下降0.1个百 分点，我国经济总体产出继续扩张，企业生产经营活动保持恢复发展态势，但复苏步伐有 所放缓。目前，国内投资方面，房地产销售持续偏弱，房企资金来源仍旧不足，投资链条 韧性仍旧较弱，房地产投资修复偏慢；基建投资有所加快，但由于高温多雨天气原因，基 建项目施工有所放缓；制造业投资 ...