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宏观策略周报:全球关税升级风险加大,全球风险偏好整体降温
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-03-18 04:57
Domestic Economic Outlook - China's February PMI data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong economic start and continued recovery[3] - Despite the short-term impact of increased US tariffs on Chinese exports, government spending has significantly increased during the Two Sessions, and the central bank has indicated potential interest rate cuts, supporting a bullish outlook for the stock market[3] - The weakening US dollar has alleviated pressure on the RMB exchange rate, enhancing domestic demand and market policy support, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite[3] International Economic Risks - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum products, prompting retaliatory measures from Canada and the EU, escalating global trade tensions[3] - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have downgraded US GDP growth forecasts for 2025 from 1.9% to 1.5% and from 2.2% to 1.7%, respectively, indicating a deteriorating economic outlook[4] - US February CPI slowed to 2.8% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.1%, both below market expectations, increasing bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[5] Market Strategy Recommendations - Maintain a cautious bullish stance on A-share index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in the short term; commodities should be observed cautiously, and government bonds should also be viewed with caution[3] - The ranking of asset classes is: stock indices > commodities > government bonds[3] - In commodities, precious metals are prioritized, followed by non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy[3] Risk Factors - Potential for unexpected tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy[3] - Geopolitical risks and intensifying US-China tensions pose significant threats to market stability[3]
宏观策略周报:全球贸易不确定性加大,全球风险偏好整体降温
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-03-11 06:35
Domestic Economic Insights - China's February PMI data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong start to the domestic economy with a continued recovery trend[3] - The government set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, aligning with market expectations and boosting growth confidence[3] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, with a deficit scale of CNY 5.66 trillion, indicating a significant increase in government spending[3] - There are expectations for further monetary policy easing, including potential interest rate cuts, to support the stock market and real estate sector in the medium to long term[3] International Economic Concerns - The US February ISM manufacturing PMI reached 50.3, the highest since June 2022, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 53.5, above expectations[3] - The US job market showed signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 151,000, below the expected 160,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%[3] - The escalation of tariffs by the US on Chinese goods and potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada have raised concerns about a deteriorating economic outlook for the US, increasing expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Market Strategy Recommendations - Maintain a cautious bullish stance on the four major A-share index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in the short term[3] - Commodity markets should be observed cautiously, with a preference for precious metals due to increased safe-haven demand amid tariff escalations[3] - The overall ranking for investment strategy is: stock indices > commodities > government bonds[3] Risk Factors - Potential for unexpected tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve[3] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to US-China relations[3] - Escalation of the US-China trade conflict could further impact market sentiment[3]
宏观策略周报:全球贸易风险加剧,全球风险偏好整体降温
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-03-04 05:30
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年3月3日 全球贸易风险[Table_Title] 加剧,全球风险偏好整体降温 ——宏观策略周报 [table_main] 投资要点: 观 金 融 周 报 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话:021-68758120 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 14 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 究 宏 宏 观 分析师: [Table_Report] 4、2 月 27 日,美国至 2 月 22 日当周初请失业金人数录得 24.2 万人,为 2024 年 12 月 7 日当周 以来新高;美国 1 月耐用品订单月率录得 3.1%,为 2024 年 7 月以来最大增幅;美国 1 月成屋签 约销售指数跌至纪录低点。 5、2 月 27 日,美国 2024 年第四季度实际 GDP 年化修正值环比升 2.3%,预期升 2.3%,初值升 2.3%,第三季度终值升 2.8%。 6、2 月 28 日,美国 1 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比升 2.6%,预期 ...
宏观月度策略报告:全球关税风险加剧,国内关注两会情况
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-03-04 05:29
东 海 研 究 东 海 策 略 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-68758120 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2025年3月3日 [Table_Title] 全球关税风险加剧,国内关注两会情况 ——宏观月度策略报告 分析师: 投资要点: 观 国内外宏观:海外宏观方面,虽然美国1月通胀和核心通胀超预期回升,一度导致年内降息预 期下降至1次,但由于美国经济增长有所放缓、消费信心下降,以及特朗普对全球发出新一轮 的关税威胁,市场对于特朗普关税政策对经济负面影响的担忧加深。美元短期持续走弱,全 球市场波动加剧。虽然短期商品需求整体改善,对能源、有色、贵金属等国际大宗商品价格 短期有一定的支撑,但关税风险使得商品市场短期波动加大。3月继续关注美国关税政策的变 化以及经济、通胀情况对市场的影响。国内宏观方面,由于美国近期经济增长有所放缓,以 及市场对于关税对经济的冲击担忧加深,美元指数短期持续走弱,人民币汇率有所升值,但 由于中美之间的贸易冲突短期仍在继续,表现相对略微偏弱。国内股市由于经济延 ...
宏观月度策略报告:美国关税2.0政策落地,全球市场波动加大
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-02-10 12:29
东 海 研 究 东 海 策 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 略 宏 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-68758120 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2025年2月8日 [Table_Title] 美国关税2.0政策落地,全球市场波动加大 ——宏观月度策略报告 分析师: 投资要点: 观 国内外宏观:海外宏观方面,虽然美国12月核心通胀意外回落,但整体通胀继续上升;且美 国经济继续回暖、劳动力市场趋向稳固,美联储1月暂停降息,符合市场预期,美元高位运行。 但是2025年2月1日,特朗普关税2.0政策落地。但随后表示暂缓执行对墨西哥和加拿大关税措 施一个月。美元短期波动加剧,先涨后跌,叠加短期需求整体改善,对能源、有色、贵金属 等国际大宗商品价格短期有一定的支撑,全球市场短期波动加剧。2月继续关注美国关税政策 的变化以及经济、通胀情况对市场的影响。国内宏观方面,2月国内处于经济数据和政策的真 空期,但美国关税2.0政策落地,短期国内股市、汇市波动加剧。国内股市由于市场对特朗普 的关税政策已有预期,以及DeepSeek大模型对 ...
2025年宏观及大类资产年度配置策略:迎风而立,向远而行
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2024-12-31 14:04
Macroeconomic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5.0% in 2025, with nominal GDP growth rebounding by approximately 2 percentage points due to improved economic fundamentals and supportive fiscal and monetary policies[1] - Consumption is projected to be the main driver of economic growth, with a significant increase in consumer spending expected to reach a growth rate of 5-6%[27] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to improve, supported by equipment upgrades and a recovery in infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment growth expected to exceed 5%[29] Commodity Market - Global commodity prices are expected to see a slight increase in the price center due to a weak recovery, with domestic demand stabilizing and external demand gradually improving in the second half of 2025[2] - Domestic commodity prices are likely to be under pressure from a strong dollar and trade tensions, particularly affecting domestic demand-driven commodities[2] Stock Market - The stock market is identified as the best asset allocation, benefiting from favorable economic fundamentals and government support, with an expected upward trend in the second half of 2025 as economic conditions improve[1] - The domestic stock market may face some adjustment pressure in the first half of 2025 due to potential trade conflicts and a decline in external demand[73] Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB is expected to face depreciation pressure in the first half of 2025 due to trade tensions and a strong dollar, but this pressure may ease in the second half as economic conditions improve[3] - The overall exchange rate dynamics will be influenced by the ongoing trade war and the performance of the US dollar[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include escalating US-China tensions, potential underperformance of domestic stimulus policies, and unexpected tightening of liquidity conditions[3]
宏观数据观察:稳中求进、以进促稳,守正创新、先立后破
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2024-12-14 02:29
Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5%[5] - In Q4 2024, China's GDP is expected to achieve a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a strong likelihood of meeting the annual 5% target[8] - Domestic demand stimulation and external trade stability are prioritized to mitigate external risks[8] Consumer and Investment Trends - October's retail sales grew by only 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a need for improved consumer confidence and internal growth drivers[6] - Investment in high-tech and durable consumer goods is expected to increase, supported by favorable monetary policies and government initiatives[9][11] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to be set between 3.5% and 4%, with an increase in special bond issuance to support economic growth[9] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts of 20-40 basis points, marking the most significant easing in nearly a decade[10] Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices and increasing mortgage support expected to take effect in 2025[14] - The stock market is projected to remain stable, bolstered by increased liquidity and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, with nominal GDP growth expected to exceed 5%[15]
宏观数据观察:11月CPI同比回落且低于市场预期
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2024-12-13 11:28
Group 1: CPI Analysis - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.5% and previous value of 0.3%[3] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.6%, against an expectation of -0.4% and previous value of -0.3%[3] - Core CPI rose by 0.3%, a slight increase of 0.1%[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - November PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, better than the expected -2.8% and previous value of -2.9%[5] - The month-on-month PPI showed a recovery, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI[5] - The impact of new price changes accounted for approximately -2.2 percentage points in the PPI year-on-year change[5] Group 3: Market Trends - Domestic industrial demand is recovering due to the implementation of various policies, leading to a stabilization in prices[6] - Traditional infrastructure investment is accelerating, while real estate investment remains weak in the short term[6] - The overall demand for terminal goods is improving, supported by monetary and fiscal policy measures[6]
宏观数据观察:11月制造业PMI继续回升,经济整体维持扩张
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2024-12-08 08:03
Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, slightly above the expected 50.2% and up from the previous 50.1%[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.0%, down from 50.2% last month, indicating a slight contraction in the sector[1] - The composite PMI remains stable at 50.8%, unchanged from the previous month, reflecting overall economic expansion[1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index increased to 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month, indicating improved market demand[3] - The production index rose to 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated manufacturing activity[3] - The import and export indices are at 47.3% and 48.1%, respectively, showing a slight improvement in trade dynamics[3] Investment and Consumption Trends - Real estate sales are recovering, but investment in the sector is slow due to policy constraints[2] - Infrastructure investment is picking up, although outdoor construction is slowing down as weather conditions worsen[2] - Manufacturing investment continues to grow rapidly, driven by recovering domestic and international demand[2] Price Dynamics - The purchasing price index for raw materials dropped to 49.8%, down 3.6 percentage points, while the factory price index fell to 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a significant decrease in manufacturing prices[3] - Domestic demand recovery is supporting prices of domestic goods, while international commodity prices are stabilizing due to reduced supply chain disruptions[4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.0%, indicating stagnation, with the service sector remaining stable at 50.1%[5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.7%, reflecting a slowdown in outdoor construction activities due to seasonal factors[5] - The service sector's business activity expectation index rose to 57.3%, the highest in five months, indicating strong confidence among service providers[5]
宏观策略报告:美元短期持续走强,后续何去何从?
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2024-11-20 00:20
Group 1 - The report highlights the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has risen from a low of 100.157 on September 27 to a high of 107.064 on November 14, marking a 6.9% increase. Non-US currencies have depreciated significantly, with the USD/JPY, USD/MYR, and USD/THB falling by 10.10%, 9.2%, and 8.63% respectively [2][11][13] - The primary reasons for the dollar's rise include the ongoing improvement in the US economy, a recovering labor market, rising inflation, and the impact of Trump's election leading to a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has resulted in a strong short-term outlook for the dollar index, while non-US currencies face significant depreciation pressure [5][13][19] - In the medium to long term, Trump's policies, including immigration and tariff measures, are expected to be implemented, which will further boost the US economy and inflation. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and other countries will likely lead to a significant impact on the global economy, potentially resulting in a scenario where the US economy stands out, with a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][28] Group 2 - The report details that the US economy is showing signs of accelerated growth, with the October PMI for manufacturing at 48.5, exceeding expectations, and the services PMI at 55.3, indicating a robust economic outlook. The labor market is also improving, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 4% year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings [14][18][19] - Inflation risks are rising, with the October CPI at 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month. Core CPI remains steady at 3.3%. The report anticipates that inflation will continue to rise due to factors such as rental and food inflation, as well as Trump's policies that may further increase domestic demand and supply-side pressures [19][25] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the shift in its monetary policy stance indicate a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market expectations for fewer cuts in 2025. The Fed's focus on economic data suggests that the need for aggressive rate cuts may diminish, impacting the overall monetary policy landscape [20][22][27]