投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木09合约偏空看待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-07-14 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木：原木期货价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 截止到6月29日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条，其中有30条去往中国大陆，8条去往中国台湾、韩国减载。6月出发的船只中，预计 6月到港的约为10条，7月到港的有28条。预计6月到货151万方。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 6月30日-7月6日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.69万方，较上周增加1.83%;其中，山东港口针叶原木日均出库量为3.9万方，较上周 增加9.86%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.15万方，较上周减少3.15%。 | | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 截至7月4日，国内针 ...

白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/7/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/7/11 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | 报糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6140 | 10 | 0 | 330 | 5 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5905 | 10 | -100 | 195 | 5 | | 〜ご覧 | 云南 | 大理 | 5800 | 10 | -140 | 130 | 5 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6135 | 0 | 100 | 225 | -5 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5810 | 5 | SR09-01 | 181 | 8 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5629 | -3 | | | | | हि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1945 | -0. 0020 | ice原糖主力 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing rapidly, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 2: Supply - related Summary - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. In May, the customs' soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival volume is expected to reach a high in June, July, and August, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Group 3: Demand - related Summary - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains high. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Group 4: Inventory - related Summary - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean meal inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6] Group 5: Data Presentation Basis Data - On July 10th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 14, down 7; in Tianjin, it was - 74, down 7; in other regions, the basis and its changes are also presented. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) in different regions also has corresponding data and changes. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 131, down 25 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong and the spread on the main futures contract are presented, along with their historical data and changes [5] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1311, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit on the futures, and the crushing profit on the futures are also given, along with relevant data on soybean inventory in Chinese ports, soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean crushing volume in major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers trend judgments for various products in different sectors: - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern; Treasury bond futures may face limited upside due to the central bank's interest - rate risk warning; Gold and silver prices are likely to oscillate; Copper prices are bearish; Aluminum prices are likely to oscillate strongly; Alumina prices are expected to stabilize and rebound; Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities are recommended; Nickel prices will oscillate, with short - term short - selling suggestions; Stainless steel prices may rebound, but the sustainability needs observation [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Tin prices have limited upward drive in the short term; Industrial silicon prices will oscillate; Polysilicon prices are bullish; Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate [1]. - **Black Metals**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by cost; Iron ore prices will oscillate; Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are under pressure; Coke and coking coal prices have short - term support but face medium - term oversupply; Anthracite prices suggest short - term avoidance of short positions and building long - short hedging positions for industrial customers [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate; Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly; Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production needs attention; Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities for the far - month contract C01 are recommended; Soybean meal prices may have different trends depending on trade policies; Pulp prices are currently over - valued with macro - level positives; Log prices are bearish; Live pig futures are stable; Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by supply and demand, with short - term support from consumption; Asphalt prices will oscillate; Natural rubber prices are bearish; BR rubber prices have some support and speculation; PTA prices are affected by various factors; Ethylene glycol prices are expected to reach a certain level; Short - fiber prices are affected by cost and production; Styrene prices are affected by raw material and production factors [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Urea prices will oscillate; PE and PP prices are likely to oscillate strongly; PVC prices will oscillate strongly; Chlor - alkali prices are affected by various factors; LPG prices will oscillate [1]. - **Other**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line is expected to form an arc - top shape, with the peak time advancing [1]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the trends of different products in multiple sectors based on various factors such as market supply and demand, policy changes, international trade policies, and geopolitical situations. It provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product, highlighting the importance of considering both short - term and long - term factors in investment decisions [1]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term domestic and international positive factors are limited, but market sentiment and liquidity are acceptable, so the index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Market uncertainties remain, so gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices may decline due to potential US tariffs; Aluminum prices are supported by alumina but face high - price demand suppression; Alumina prices are expected to rise due to supply - side reform expectations; Zinc prices are under pressure from tariffs and inventory accumulation; Nickel prices will oscillate, affected by supply and macro factors; Stainless steel prices may rebound, but the sustainability needs to be observed [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Tin**: Short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upward drive [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south, and demand has marginal growth but a potential decline in the future, with high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has no reduction, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital game, so prices will oscillate [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by strong furnace materials; Iron ore prices have a positive commodity sentiment but a weakening fundamental situation; Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by supply - demand and cost factors; Coke and coking coal prices have short - term support but face medium - term oversupply; Anthracite prices suggest short - term avoidance of short positions and building long - short hedging positions for industrial customers [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate due to different factors such as monthly reports and lack of drivers [1]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to trade negotiations, weather, and consumption season factors [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production needs attention [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - related grain supply and price differentials have a negative impact, and far - month contract short - selling opportunities are recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price trend depends on Sino - US trade policies [1]. - **Pulp**: The price is currently over - valued, but there are macro - level positives [1]. - **Log**: The price is bearish due to the off - season and limited supply reduction [1]. - **Live Pig**: Futures prices are stable due to存栏 and出栏 factors [1]. - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Prices are affected by supply and demand, with short - term support from consumption [1]. - **Asphalt**: Prices will oscillate due to cost and demand factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are bearish due to weakening demand, increased supply, and inventory increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Prices have some support and speculation [1]. - **PTA**: Prices are affected by factors such as basis, crude oil, and polyester downstream load [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices are expected to reach a certain level due to coal prices, arrival volume, and polyester procurement [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are affected by cost and production factors [1]. - **Styrene**: Prices are affected by raw material and production factors [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices will oscillate due to domestic demand and export expectations [1]. - **PE and PP**: Prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to macro - sentiment, maintenance, and demand factors [1]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate strongly due to factors such as coal prices, maintenance, and seasonal demand [1]. - **Chlor - alkali**: Prices are affected by various factors such as coal prices, arrival volume, and profit [1]. - **LPG**: Prices will oscillate due to spot market, crude oil support, and seasonal demand factors [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to form an arc - top shape, with the peak time advancing and sufficient subsequent capacity deployment [1].

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value of 1862 [2] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1343, down 1.92% from the previous value of 1369 [2] - SCFI - US West has a current value of 2089, down 18.97% from the previous value of 2578 [2] - SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1557, down 3.83% from the previous value of 1619 [2] - SCFI - US East has a current value of 4124, down 12.57% from the previous value of 4717 [2] - SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2101, up 3.50% from the previous value of 2030 [2] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2258, up 6.36% from the previous value of 2123 [2] - SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2869, down 3.89% from the previous value of 2985 [2] Group 2: Shipping Contracts Data - For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding price changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1342.1, up 0.72% from the previous value of 1332.5 [2] - Regarding contract positions, such as EC2606 position, EC2508 position etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes in quantity are provided. For instance, EC2606 position has a current value of 471, up from the previous value of 430 [2] - For month - spreads like 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes are given. For example, the 10 - 12 month - spread has a current value of 621.4, down 1.1 from the previous value of 622.5 [2] Group 3: Industry News - A vessel was attacked off the Red Sea coast of Yemen on Sunday, with characteristics typical of Houthi militants. The vessel was hit by a maritime drone and also attacked by small boats [2] - Some EU car manufacturers and governments are seeking a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. If no deal is reached by July 9, EU exports to the US may face a 50% tariff increase [6] - Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks in Qatar ended without results [7] - CMA added an overtime ship on the 11th and still has available space [7] - MSK added a new overtime ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in wk31 [8] - There is congestion at East China ports, and MSC adjusted its port calls [9] - Loading rates on European routes were good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10] - The OA Alliance's CES route suspended two sailings, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [11] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The shipping market showed a strong - side oscillation. The recent strength was due to tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. Forwarding of goods from the Far East to the US will continue for some time, which is positive for August [12] - The central price in the second week of July was about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quotes increased slightly, and the 08 contract performed strongly [12] - The market is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations. The shipping volume during the previous peak season was mostly consumed during the tariff suspension period, and the effect of price increases in August may not be optimistic [12] - The strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. The 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract due to less shipping capacity in wk28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in wk1 of July, and expected congestion in Europe [12]

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/11 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 519.7 | 522.5 | 2. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:华东市场PTA价格4746元/吨,跌2元/吨。聚酯工 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 941.3 | 944.9 | 3. 65 | 厂官宣继续减产,PTA需求利空继续发酵,日内PTA基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2492 | 1. 2489 | -0. 0004 | 差继续走弱,加之国际油价对PTA成本提振效果一般, 日内PTA现货微幅下跌。 | | | CFR中国PX | 850 | 852 | 2 | | | PX | | | | | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 264 | 254 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify [2] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 673 dollars, with a daily increase of 7 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 830 dollars, with a daily increase of 10 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1405 dollars, with a daily increase of 20 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4565 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5400 dollars, with a daily increase of 60 dollars [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,095 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,285 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 570 yuan/ton, with a change of - 530 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 340 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 500 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 140,793 tons, with an increase of 2446 tons. The weekly inventory of smelters is 58,598 tons, with a decrease of 292 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 40,765 tons, with an increase of 268 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 41,430 tons, with an increase of 2470 tons. The daily registered warehouse receipt is 13,191 tons, with a decrease of 90 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 62,936 yuan/ton, and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 68,253 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 7005 yuan/ton [2] Industry News - Premier African Minerals, a London Alternative Investment Market (AIM) listed company, has completed the upgrade and transformation of the flotation plant of its Zulu lithium - tantalum mine project in Zimbabwe and restarted operations on July 6. The project covers an area of about 3.5 square kilometers and is 100% wholly - owned by Premier through its local subsidiary Zulu Lithium (Private) Limited [2] - Hunan has discovered 4.9 billion tons of lithium ore. The Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, has discovered a super - large altered granite - type lithium deposit, with a submitted lithium ore volume of 4.9 billion tons and a lithium oxide resource volume of 1.31 million tons. The deposit is also associated with multiple strategic minerals such as beryllium, tungsten, and tin [2]

责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况适究法律 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/7/11 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4750 | 4735 | (15.00) | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4347 | 4374 | 27.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨8至6528。现货市场:涤纶短 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Indicators - On July 10, 2025, the prices of most energy - chemical products remained stable, with slight increases in international natural gas, methanol in Taicang and Shandong, and domestic production. For example, international natural gas rose from 11.64 to 11.72, methanol in Taicang increased from 2375.00 to 2380.00, and domestic production rose from 273125.00 to 274675.00 [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production and start - up rate increased slightly. Domestic production increased by 1550.00 to 274675.00, and the domestic start - up rate rose from 84.84 to 85.32 [1] Inventory - Both enterprise and port inventories of methanol remained unchanged, with enterprise inventory at 352280.00 and port inventory at 673660.00 [1] Demand - Orders to be delivered remained stable at 233250.00 [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of associated products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged on July 10, 2025 [1]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The pulp futures are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term under the background of macro - positive factors [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5386 with a daily increase of 1.28% and a weekly increase of 1.51%; SP2507 was 5150 with a daily increase of 1.58% and a weekly increase of 1.66%; SP2509 was 5196 with a daily increase of 1.76% and a weekly increase of 2.00% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 10, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.34%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 1.56%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4020 with no change [1]. - **Outer - plate Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - plate quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The W20 shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. - **Demand**: The output of major finished paper increased slightly this week, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 217.9 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, showing a de - stocking trend [2]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 10, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 4 with a quantile level of 0.71, and the Silver Star basis was 724 with a quantile level of 0.925 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.686, and that of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 81 with a quantile level of 0.564 [1].