ITC 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 ITGER期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 入 期 市 市 服 热 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 M 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 ,教据 | | | 2026年2月5日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月5日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5464 | -1.01% | -2. 60% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5320 | 0.00% | -1.12% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5302 | -1. 34% | -2.54% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5100 | 0. 00% | -1.92% | | | SP2605 | 5254 | -1. 31% | -2. 49% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - According to the weather forecast, there is an expectation of rainfall return in Argentina in February, and the sustainability of the previous drought speculation is insufficient. The probability of severe weather speculation is relatively small as La Nina has basically ended. Recently, due to a shortage of trucks in Brazil, freight rates have increased, and the real has appreciated, making Brazil's premium relatively strong. However, this year's soybean growing season in Brazil has no obvious adverse weather, and the overall harvest is expected to be good. The short - term logistics problems in Brazil are expected to postpone the selling pressure of Brazil's premium. As harvesting progresses, the selling pressure on the premium is expected to impact the domestic market [12]. - In the future, from a unilateral perspective, the absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low and sensitive to positive events. But under the expected selling pressure from South America, there is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend yet, and it is necessary to wait for the release of the selling pressure. The short - term futures market is expected to show a weak bottom - seeking trend. The price center of US soybeans in this crop year is expected to be higher than that in the previous crop year. From the perspective of Brazil's premium, due to the improvement of Brazil's storage capacity, the appreciation of the real, and the high cost - effectiveness of Brazilian soybeans, the decline of Brazil's premium this year may be less than last year, and the bottom of the futures market is expected to be higher than that in the previous crop year. In China, the domestic soybean crushing and processing has recently recovered to a high level, and downstream procurement is basically over. Based on domestic procurement, imported soybean auctions, and targeted sales, it is estimated that the soybean inventory of domestic oil mills will still be relatively abundant year - on - year by the end of March, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to weaken [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Basis Data - On February 4th, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian was 457, a decrease of 16. In Tianjin, it was 457; in Rizhao, it was 337, a decrease of 16; in Zhangjiagang, it was 377; in Dongguan, it was 357; in Zhanjiang, it was 377; in Fangcheng, it was 377. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 112, a decrease of 5. The M3 - 5 was 258, a decrease of 17, and the RNS - 9 was - 45, a decrease of 7 [4]. Inventory Data - The content shows the inventory trends of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2026 [5][6]. 开机 and压榨情况 - The content shows the trends of the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2026 [9][10]. Spread and International Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 676, and the futures spread of the main contract was 476, a decrease of 2. The 2025 soybean CNF premium, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and imported soybean futures gross profit are also presented [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/5 策略:短期做空性价比降低,关注低位做多06和反弹逢高做空淡季10。 免责 声明 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料， 国贸期货力求推确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整件做任何保证。 本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者带殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资看需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告仅向特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为场构成对国贸联货的侵权，我 司将视情况追究法律责任。 ITG国贸期货 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still an oil price risk. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA output in January expected to hit a record high and no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight. The global effective capacity release is limited. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the polyester factory's production cuts have a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February, with the duration of the conversion undetermined. This has led to a significant increase in speculative market demand, and the supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price increased from 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, to 462.4 yuan/barrel on February 4, 2026, a rise of 13 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1884.2 yuan/ton to 1857.7 yuan/ton, a drop of 26.47 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.5769 to 1.5528, a decrease of 0.0241; CFR China PX increased from 897 to 902, a rise of 5; PX - naphtha spread increased from 316 to 318, a rise of 3 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 5150 yuan/ton to 5218 yuan/ton, a rise of 68 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5080 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan/ton; spot processing fee increased from 371.2 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton, a rise of 33.8 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee increased from 436.2 yuan/ton to 483 yuan/ton, a rise of 46.8 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 68 to - 62, a rise of 6; PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 103,568 [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3767 yuan/ton to 3788 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 179.84 yuan/ton to - 172.03 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price increased from 3670 yuan/ton to 3675 yuan/ton, a rise of 5 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 122 to - 103, a rise of 19 [2] - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 85.92%; PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG operating rate decreased from 62.48% to 61.67%, a drop of 0.81%; polyester load decreased from 79.76% to 79.24%, a drop of 0.52% [2] - POY150D/48F decreased from 7095 yuan/ton to 7020 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 272 yuan/ton to 144 yuan/ton, a drop of 128 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7295 yuan/ton to 7255 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 28 yuan/ton to - 121 yuan/ton, a drop of 93 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8210 yuan/ton to 8155 yuan/ton, a drop of 55 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 187 yuan/ton to 79 yuan/ton, a drop of 108 yuan/ton; filament sales increased from 24% to 30%, a rise of 6% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6555 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a drop of 6617 yuan/ton; polyester staple cash flow decreased from 82 yuan/ton to - 6588 yuan/ton, a drop of 6670 yuan/ton; staple fiber sales decreased from 65% to 64%, a drop of 1% [2] - Semi - bright chip increased from 5860 yuan/ton to 5910 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 63 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton, a drop of 3 yuan/ton; chip sales increased from 78% to 105%, a rise of 27% [2] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | 白素娜 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标名称 现货:铂(99.95%) | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌幅 | 800 | 主要图表 - 期货收益价(活跃合约):铂 | -期货收益价(活跃合约):把 | | | 铂期货主力收盘价 | 599. 85 | 572. 95 | 4.69% | | | | | 国内价格 | | 573.5 | 548 | 4.65% | | | 5 | | (元/克) | 铂:基差(现-期) | -26. 35 | -24. 95 | 5.61% | 600 | | | | | 锂期货主力收盘价 | 461 | 450. 55 | 2. 32% | | | | | | 现货: 锂(99.95%) | 449 | 439 | 2. 28% | 400 | | | | | 贸:基差(现-期) | -12 | -11.55 | 3.90% | | | | | 国际价格 | 指标名称 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌幅 | 200 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the stock index was weakly volatile in the morning and rallied significantly in the afternoon, with the Shanghai 50 leading the gains driven by the coal and real estate sectors. The macro news was calm, precious metal prices rebounded, and market sentiment improved. In the short - term, it's necessary to focus on whether the panic caused by overseas liquidity tightening can be effectively alleviated. After the volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations. In the long - run, in the context of low interest rates and "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the bottom - building process, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rates and Bond Market - Interest rates: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.49% with a 0.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.48% with a 12.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57% with a 3.50bp decrease; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.13bp decrease; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged [3]. - Bond yields: 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30% with a 0.01bp decrease; 5 - year at 1.51% with a 0.25bp decrease; 10 - year at 1.81% with a 0.15bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 1.00bp decrease [3]. - Central bank operations: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 3775 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 3025 billion yuan. This week, 17615 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - Stock index futures prices: IF当月 closed at 4699 with a 0.9% increase; IH当月 at 3072 with a 1.3% increase; IC当月 at 8321 with a 0.3% increase; IM当月 at 8230 with a 0.2% increase [3][5][10]. - Stock index prices: The CSI 300 rose 0.83% to 4698.7; the SSE 50 rose 1.14% to 3069.2; the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 8299.1; the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 8207.1 [5]. - Trading volume and open interest: IF volume decreased by 21.8%, open interest by 5.6%; IH volume by 17.5%, open interest by 6.9%; IC volume by 18.1%, open interest by 2.9%; IM volume by 11.4%, open interest by 0.5% [5][10]. - Market turnover: The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 623 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - Industry performance: Most industry sectors rose. The coal, photovoltaic equipment, airport, glass fiber, mining, and real estate development sectors led the gains, while the precious metal, cultural media, gaming, internet service, and semiconductor sectors led the losses [5]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis: - 0.06% for the current - month contract, 0.90% for the next - month contract, 1.94% for the current - quarter contract, 3.01% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IH basis: - 1.75% for the current - month contract, - 0.69% for the next - month contract, 0.30% for the current - quarter contract, 1.71% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IC basis: - 6.03% for the current - month contract, - 1.45% for the next - month contract, 2.71% for the current - quarter contract, 3.78% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IM basis: - 6.36% for the current - month contract, 0.38% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, 6.27% for the next - quarter contract [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,报 投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/4 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5080 | 5140 | 60 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3670 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/4 | 5078. 27 | 89. 65 | 5099. 10 | 89. 45 | 1145.04 | 22937.00 | 1137.83 | 23200.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2026/2/ ...