责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/8 | 2025/7/9 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4800 | 4750 | (50. 00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4360 | 4347 | (13.00) | 现货资讯: | | | | | | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨8至6528。现货市场:涤纶短 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4718 | 8.00 | 纤生产企业价格下调,贸易商价格偏弱整理,下 | | MEG收盘价 | 4267 | 4283 | 16. 00 | 游需求不振,市场成交匮之。1.56dtex*38mm半 | | | | | | 光本白(1.4D)涤纶 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/7/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团日 | 地区 | | 2025/7/9 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | 报糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6120 | 0 | 0 | 341 | -32 | | 吨价现 | 云南 | 昆明 | 6365 | 500 | -100 | ୧୫୧ | 468 | | 部 (長) く ) | | 大理 | 5770 | 0 | -140 | 131 | -32 | | | 山东 | 日照 | 6135 | 0 | 100 | 256 | -32 | | 数 盘 | SR09 | | 5779 | 32 | SR09-01 | 173 | 15 | | 据 面 | SR01 | | 5606 | 17 | | | | | 国 | 人民币兑美 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | C | | C | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | | C 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 期货执业证号:F3074875: 2025/7/10 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 较前值变动 品种 | 收盘价 | 较削值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.32 | 0.24 | DR007 | 1.48 | 1.32 | | हि | GC001 | 1.43 | -6.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | -1.00 | | E | SHBOR 3M | 1.56 | -0.80 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 0.50 | 5年期国债 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On July 9, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5318, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 0.64%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change [1]. - The futures price of SP2507 was 5070, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly increase of 0.44%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, with no change [1]. - The outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1]. - The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. Supply - Chilean Arauco announced a new round of July wood pulp outer - disk quotations. The face value of coniferous pulp Silver Star (no new offer after completed transactions), the face value of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, and the net price of Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton (no quantity for Chilean Star). The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Inventory - As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 髪酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/8 | 2025/7/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 510. 7 | 519.7 | 9.00 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,下游聚酯工厂进一步减产,PTA预 | | | | | | | 期供应增加,市场心态支撑不足,日内现货成交基差 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 998. 7 | 941.3 | -57. 40 | 大幅度走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2691 | 1. 2492 | -0. 0199 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 847 | 850 | 3 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 270 | 264 | -7 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].

【钢材】限产消息继续助力盘面情绪回暖 周三期价运行平稳. 基差暂稳,建材贸易成交再降了一个台阶,但并不影响夜盘盘面情绪回暖,触发点来自于某省发布钢林 产量控产消息,再给盘面情绪点了一把火。只是近期从钢材现货表现来看,能带动的现货跟涨动能持续性并不够,导致基 快速压缩,个别区域或品牌再现期货升水,利于期现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。同时,市场上对限产的关注度也在拔 高,7月-8月预计会有不定期限产行为,虽然从市场化的角度来看,钢厂生产利润不错,主动限、减产的意愿并不强,但行 政性的扰动概率会增加. 这一点要保持关注;从现货行为来看,当下钢材现货受淡季影响大,市场看涨信心在淡季里并不坚 挺,现货商不追涨,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路;不过,近几日走访调研 一些产业客户,普遍感觉市场的预期和信心环比前一段时间,是有好转的,这一点后续若能兑现为买货或者主动做点敞口扣 实际行动,有助于旺季前现货筑底。 【焦煤焦炭】期现共振上涨,焦炭首轮提涨仍在酝酿 现货端,焦炭提涨声音渐起,焦煤现货竞拍成交较好,价格普遍上涨,成交氛围活跃,港口贸易准一焦炭报价1230(+3 0),炼焦煤价格指数9 ...

Report Summary Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 24.35 points, a 0.7% increase, at 3497.48 points, with a turnover of 567.507 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 152.88 points, a 1.46% increase, at 10588.39 points, with a turnover of 886.443 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed up 50.89 points, a 2.39% increase, at 2181.08 points, with a turnover of 436.544 billion yuan; the CSI 300 closed up 33.28 points, an 0.84% increase, at 3998.45 points, with a turnover of 292.09 billion yuan [9] Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Volume (billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2747.1875 | 0.57 | 67.879 | 34.08 | | CSI 300 | 3998.4527 | 0.84 | 292.09 | 156.40 | | CSI 1000 | 6407.6976 | 1.27 | 306.817 | 235.13 | [4] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Option Trading Volume (million contracts) | Call Option Volume | Put Option Volume | PCR | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest | Put Option Open Interest | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3.49 | 2.53 | 0.97 | 0.38 | 6.87 | 4.37 | 2.50 | 0.57 | | CSI 300 | 9.41 | 6.50 | 2.91 | 0.45 | 19.25 | 11.32 | 7.94 | 0.70 | | CSI 1000 | 27.11 | 15.75 | 11.36 | 0.72 | 26.84 | 13.20 | 13.64 | 1.03 | [4] Volatility Analysis - Analyzed historical volatility and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and current values, as well as next - month at - the - money implied volatility [8][9]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 智能日 2025/7/9 | 指标 | | 7月8日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -15 | -18 | 2500 | ===== 19/20 | == | | | - 23/24 | - 24/25 | | | | | -8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -55 | 2 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -115 | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -135 | 2 | -500 09/21 | | | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | ...

| 可能做 | | | | 日時 策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分格号:F025192 | | | | 发布日期 2025/07 | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | | | 短期内,国内外利多因素平平,市场情绪和流动性尚可,股指或 呈现偏强震荡格局。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | | 否间。 | | | | 黄金 | | 震荡 | 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | T 自银 | | 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 | | | | | 温. | 铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | 看空 的。 | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | | 氧化铝 | | 辰川 | 国内反内卷政策提振供给侧改革预期,氧化铝价格企稳回升。 | | | | | | 宏观情绪改善下锌价企稳,基本面上累 ...