Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, the market sentiment and liquidity are fair, and the stock index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern. - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further strengthen to support domestic demand. - The uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring periodic trading opportunities for the stock index [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.58bp increase, DR007 at 1.49 with a 1.78bp increase, GC001 at 1.16 with a 27.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 2.00bp decrease. SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.30bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50. - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.37, 1.51, and 1.66 respectively, with increases of 1.25bp, 2.25bp, and 1.35bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.34 with an 8.00bp decrease. - The central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan. This week, there are 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open - market operations, with 34 billion yuan maturing on Friday. The inter - bank market liquidity has further eased, and major repurchase rates have declined [4]. Stock Index Market - The closing prices of major stock indices on the previous day: CSI 300 at 4010 (up 0.47%), SSE 50 at 2757 (up 0.62%), CSI 500 at 2983 (up 0.50%), and CSI 1000 at 6407 (up 0.25%). The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 18.2%, 32.7%, 3.7%, and 3.6% respectively, and the positions increased by 4.8%, 11.2%, 2.4%, and 3.5% respectively. - The previous day's trading volume in the two stock markets was 1.4942 trillion yuan, a slight reduction of 11 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with real estate development, engineering consulting services, etc. leading the gains, and jewelry, shipbuilding leading the losses. - The expectation of real - estate policies resurfaced yesterday, and the "small essays" on real - estate significantly boosted the real - estate and building - materials sectors. It is rumored that a central urban work conference will be held next week, which may make policy arrangements for restarting the shantytown renovation [4]. Futures Contract Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are provided, with some contracts showing premium and others showing discount [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the international raw sugar from its bottom has led to a rebound in the domestic market, but the upside space remains limited [3]. - Internationally, the supply side continues to recover this season. Brazil's new season is progressing smoothly, but the increase in Brazil's production may fall short of expectations. Benefiting from good monsoon weather, the production in India and Thailand is expected to rebound [3]. - Domestically, the new season is expected to see a significant increase in production, reaching a historical high. The domestic market may continue to face pressure, but the downside space is also limited [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Spot Price - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, with a basis of 325 yuan against SR09, down 16 yuan [3]. - In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5895 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, with a basis of 190 yuan against SR09, up 4 yuan; in Dali, it is 5790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, with a basis of 125 yuan against SR09, down 6 yuan [3]. - In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6135 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 230 yuan against SR09, down 26 yuan [3]. Futures Price - SR09 is at 5805 yuan, up 26 yuan; SR01 is at 5632 yuan, up 26 yuan; the spread between SR09 - 01 is 173 yuan, unchanged [3]. International Exchange Rate and Commodity Price - The RMB against the US dollar is at 7.1965, down 0.0030; the Brazilian real against the RMB is at 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee against the RMB is at 0.084, down 0.0004 [3]. - The ICE raw sugar main contract is at 16.54, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 70.18, unchanged [3].

权教据日报 etif = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 =: F0251925 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 1.2 - J 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 中证1000PCR走势 1.2 08 0.6 0 4 0.2 手 PCR 上证50波动率分析 上证50历史波动率 力史波动率链 0.5 -最大值 露小值 -- 10%分位值 0.45 30%分位值 -- 60%分位值 · 当前值 0.4 90%分位值 0.35 0.3 80% 0.25 70% 0.2 eole 50% 0.15 40% 0.1 30% 0.05 20% 0 10% 2025-02-24 2025-03-24 2025-04-24 2025-05-24 2025-06-24 0% -HV5 - HV20 - 20日 40日 120日 - HAEO 日 eo目 上证50下月平值隐波 波动车微笑曲线 0.4 - 250 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations from June to August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 levels. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [6] Price and Spread - On July 9th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) and the spot basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions (such as Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, etc.) showed different values and changes. The spot spread and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong also have corresponding data [4][5] Other Data - There are data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the futures crushing profit, the import soybean futures gross profit, the CNF premium of soybeans, the inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,700 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2507 is 64,700 yuan, up 0.59%; Li2508 is 64,680 yuan, up 0.12%; Li2509 is 64,400 yuan, up 0.16%; Li2510 is 64,160 yuan, down 0.03%; Li2511 is 64,080 yuan, up 0.22% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 666 yuan, with a daily increase of 8 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 820 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1385 yuan, with a daily increase of 30 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4500 yuan, with a daily increase of 75 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5340 yuan, with a daily increase of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,950 yuan, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,955 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan, with no change [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1100 yuan, with a change of - 120 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of other sources (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 13,281 tons, with an increase of 626 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,506 yuan, and the profit is - 76 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 6886 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing [3]

责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/8 | 2025/7/9 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4800 | 4750 | (50. 00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4360 | 4347 | (13.00) | 现货资讯: | | | | | | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨8至6528。现货市场:涤纶短 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4718 | 8.00 | 纤生产企业价格下调,贸易商价格偏弱整理,下 | | MEG收盘价 | 4267 | 4283 | 16. 00 | 游需求不振,市场成交匮之。1.56dtex*38mm半 | | | | | | 光本白(1.4D)涤纶 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on sugar, providing price data and market analysis [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the international raw sugar market has driven the domestic market up, but the upside space remains limited [3] - Internationally, the supply side continues to recover this season, with the new Brazilian season progressing smoothly, but the increase in Brazilian production may be less than expected [3] - India and Thailand's production is expected to recover due to favorable monsoon weather [3] - Domestically, the new season is expected to see a significant increase in production, which may put continuous pressure on the domestic market, but the downside space is also limited [3] Data Summary Domestic Sugar Price - On July 9, 2025, the price per ton of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 341 yuan against SR09, a decrease of 32 yuan [3] - The price in Kunming, Yunnan was 6,365 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan, with a basis of 468 yuan against SR09 [3] - The price in Dali, Yunnan was 5,770 yuan, unchanged, with a basis of 131 yuan against SR09, a decrease of 32 yuan [3] - The price in Rizhao, Shandong was 6,135 yuan, unchanged, with a basis of 256 yuan against SR09, a decrease of 32 yuan [3] Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,779 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan; SR01 closed at 5,606 yuan, an increase of 17 yuan [3] - The spread between SR09 and SR01 was 173 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1995, an increase of 0.0075; the Brazilian Real to RMB exchange rate was 1.2818, an increase of 0.0212; the Indian Rupee to RMB exchange rate was 0.084, a decrease of 0.0004 [3] - The ICE raw sugar main contract was at 16.15, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract was at 573, an increase of 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was at 70.03, unchanged [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, market sentiment and liquidity are acceptable. Stock indices may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. The premium advantage of stock index futures has shrunk in the past two days, so caution is advised when chasing up [6]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.24bp change; DR007 closed at 1.48 with a 1.32bp change; GC001 closed at 1.43 with a -6.50bp change; GC007 closed at 1.51 with a -1.00bp change; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a -0.80bp change; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change; the 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.36 with a 0.50bp change; the 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.48 with a 0.30bp change; the 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.64 with a 0.00bp change; the 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.42 with a 2.00bp change [4]. - The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 985 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 230 billion yuan. This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due in the central bank's open market, with 572 billion yuan and 340 billion yuan due on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recently, the inter - bank market liquidity has become more relaxed, and major repurchase rates have declined. The weighted average rate of overnight pledged - style repurchase by depository institutions dropped 4.47bp to 1.315%, reaching a new low since December 2024 [4]. Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts: The CSI 300 closed at 3991, down 0.18%; the SSE 50 closed at 2740, down 0.26%; the CSI 500 closed at an unspecified value, down 0.41%; the CSI 1000 closed at 6390, down 0.27%. The IF current - month contract closed at 3977, down 0.1%; the IH current - month contract closed at 2730, down 0.1%; the IC current - month contract closed at 5930, down 0.5%; the IM current - month contract closed at 6359, down 0.3% [5]. - The trading volume and open interest changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 82089, down 13.5; IF open interest was 246185, down 4.2; IH trading volume was 42379, down 8.9; IH open interest was 85854, down 2.5; IC trading volume was 70784, down 23.9; IC open interest was 222178, down 5.1; IM trading volume was 162388, down 25.4; IM open interest was 321744, down 7.4 [5]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase of CPI turned from a 0.1% decline last month to a 0.1% increase, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 0.1% in the first half of the year. The year - on - year decline of PPI was 3.6%, with the decline widening from 3.3% last month, and the cumulative decline in the first half of the year was 2.8%. The turn of CPI from negative to positive was mainly driven by high - temperature and rainy weather leading to a reverse increase in vegetable prices and a significant narrowing of the year - on - year decline, as well as the increase in international oil prices driving the year - on - year recovery of domestic energy prices to positive growth. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened due to weak domestic demand, sufficient supply causing accelerated price declines of industrial products such as coal and steel, and tariff policy adjustments and weak external demand increasing the downward price pressure on some export - oriented industries [5]. - The升贴水 (premium/discount) rates of stock index futures contracts: IF current - month contract was 14.63%, next - month contract was 7.32%, current - quarter contract was 4.90%, next - quarter contract was 4.01%; IH current - month contract was 14.98%, next - month contract was 5.80%, current - quarter contract was 2.95%, next - quarter contract was 1.20%; IC current - month contract was 16.00%, next - month contract was 12.74%, current - quarter contract was 11.08%, next - quarter contract was 9.53%; IM current - month contract was 20.10%, next - month contract was 15.66%, current - quarter contract was 14.00%, next - quarter contract was 12.72% [7]. - Yesterday's closing situation: The CSI 300 rose 0.84% to 3998.5; the SSE 50 rose 0.57% to 2747.2; the CSI 500 rose 1.31% to 5977.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.27% to 6407.7. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15052 billion yuan, an increase of 512 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with the diversified finance, engineering consulting services, cultural media, medical services, and banking sectors leading the gains, and the insurance, small metals, precious metals, shipbuilding, and wind power equipment sectors leading the losses [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On July 9, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5318, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 0.64%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change [1]. - The futures price of SP2507 was 5070, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly increase of 0.44%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, with no change [1]. - The outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1]. - The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. Supply - Chilean Arauco announced a new round of July wood pulp outer - disk quotations. The face value of coniferous pulp Silver Star (no new offer after completed transactions), the face value of natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, and the net price of Uruguayan broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton (no quantity for Chilean Star). The supply side showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1]. Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Inventory - As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2].