投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 3、这条来自 Axios 的"独家消息(Scoop)"非常有分量,它可能透露了一个外交上的重大变化:俄罗斯总统普京 正在私下敦促伊朗接受一项"零浓缩"（zero enrichment）核协议,以换取与美国达成新核协议的可能性。 4、美国对欧盟和墨西哥加征30%关税，贸易紧张局势升级。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布对欧盟和墨西哥征收统一 30%的新关税,引发新一轮贸易紧张局势。这一举措进一步加剧了其政府推动所谓"更公平贸易"的激进策略。 5、重磅！菲律宾政府已命令持证船员代理机构将载有菲律宾船员的船只避开红海的曼德海峡，因为明塞武装正在持 续袭击商业船只。这一指令是在一次针对散货船 Eternity C 的袭击后发布的，该船上有21名菲律宾船员和1名俄罗 斯人，目前已有8名幸存者被找到,至少4人死亡。其它下落不明。菲律宾外劳部强调。所有裁有菲律宾船员的船只 必须避开国际运输工会联合会（ITF）和国际谈判论坛（IBF）设定的战争区域,包括红海和亚丁湾。船员代理机构 还必须尊重菲律宾船员拒绝在这些危险区域执行任务的权利。菲律宾向全球供应约35%的船员，因此采取这些措施来 保 ...

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 9.47 points, a 0.27% increase, at 3519.65 points, with a turnover of 623.102 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed down 11.58 points, a 0.11% decrease, at 10684.52 points, with a turnover of 835.648 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed down 10.03 points, a 0.45% decrease, at 2197.07 points, with a turnover of 387.28 billion yuan; the CSI 300 closed up 2.86 points, a 0.07% increase, at 4017.67 points, with a turnover of 321.416 billion yuan [13] Index Futures and Options Data Index Futures | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Volume (billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2757.808 | 0.04 | 900.39 | 51.49 | | CSI 300 | 4017.6678 | 0.07 | 3214.16 | 207.92 | | CSI 1000 | 6462.3051 | 0.02 | 3026.37 | 242.06 | [4] Index Options | Index | Call Option Volume (million contracts) | Put Option Volume (million contracts) | Daily Volume (million contracts) | PCR (Volume) | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (million contracts) | PCR (Open Interest) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2.34 | 1.18 | 3.52 | 0.50 | 7.28 | 4.48 | 2.79 | 0.62 | | CSI 300 | 4.60 | 2.77 | 7.37 | 0.60 | 19.48 | 11.15 | 8.33 | 0.75 | | CSI 1000 | 8.65 | 6.89 | 15.53 | 0.80 | 28.15 | 13.91 | 14.24 | 1.02 | [4] Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - Historical volatility analysis shows the range of historical volatility, including minimum, maximum, and different percentile values from 2025 - 02 - 27 to 2025 - 06 - 27 for different time - frames (5 - day, 20 - day, etc.) - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curve is presented with specific values at different strike prices [8][9][10] CSI 300 Volatility - Similar to SSE 50, historical volatility analysis shows the range of historical volatility for different time - frames from 2025 - 02 - 27 to 2025 - 06 - 27 - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curve is presented with specific values at different strike prices [10][11][12] CSI 1000 Volatility - Historical volatility analysis shows the range of historical volatility for different time - frames from 2025 - 02 - 27 to 2025 - 06 - 27 - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curve is presented with specific values at different strike prices [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]

| 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/7/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/7/14 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | 报糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6140 | 0 | 0 | 323 | -7 | | 吨价现 | 云南 | 昆明 | 5905 | 0 | -100 | 188 | -7 | | 〜賞 | | 大理 | 5800 | 0 | -140 | 123 | -7 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6135 | 0 | 100 | 218 | -7 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5817 | 7 | SR09-01 | 178 | -3 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5639 | 10 | | | | | 国 | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1865 | -0. 0080 | ice原糖主力 | | 16. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Price - On July 14, 2025, methanol prices in many domestic regions were slightly adjusted. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest main production area was at a low level, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher enterprise auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth transactions of new domestic orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the general increase of spot prices. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday. For example, the price in Taicang increased from 2355.00 to 2370.00, an increase of 15.00; the price in Shandong increased from 2220.00 to 2230.00, an increase of 10.00; while the price in Inner Mongolia decreased from 1980.00 to 1970.00, a decrease of 10.00 [1]. b. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 266175.00 to 271225.00, an increase of 5050.00, and the domestic start - up rate increased from 82.68 to 84.25, an increase of 1.57. The international start - up rate remained unchanged at 71.13 [1]. c. Import - The arrival weight of imports remained unchanged at 25.46 [1]. d. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 352280.00 and 673660.00 respectively [1]. e. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 233250.00 [1]. f. Operating Rates of Related Products - The operating rates of MTOH, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, MTBE, etc. remained mostly unchanged, with only the formaldehyde operating rate remaining unchanged at 46.40 [1]. g. Associated Product Prices - The price of dimethyl ether decreased from 3350.00 to 3300.00, a decrease of 50.00; the price of methane chloride increased from 2140.00 to 2160.00, an increase of 20.00; the price of MTBE increased from 4950.00 to 4960.00, an increase of 10.00 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market show an increase in supply and stable demand, which may pose a constraint on the price increase. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, the futures price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate upward, but the downstream inventory is relatively large, and the subsequent replenishment space may be limited, weakening the price support [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 66,200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.41%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 66,720 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.63%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 66,480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.71%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 66,260 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.66%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 66,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.48% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 682 yuan, with a daily increase of 8 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 890 yuan, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1450 yuan, with a daily increase of 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4650 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5500 yuan, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 31,275 yuan, with a daily increase of 220 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 142,880 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 115,255 yuan, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 120,305 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1830 yuan, with a change of - 1300 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 240 yuan, with no change; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 460 yuan, with no change [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 140,793 tons, with an increase of 2446 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 58,598 tons, with a decrease of 292 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 40,765 tons, with an increase of 268 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 41,430 tons, with an increase of 2470 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 11,204 tons, with a decrease of 399 tons [2] Industry News - Premier African Minerals completed the upgrade of the flotation plant of its Zulu lithium - tantalum ore project in Zimbabwe and restarted operations on July 6. The project covers about 3.5 square kilometers and is 100% owned by Premier through its local subsidiary [2] - Hunan Province has discovered 4.9 billion tons of lithium ore in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, with 131000 tons of lithium oxide resources, and the deposit is accompanied by multiple strategic minerals [2] - A document from the Yichun Bureau of Land and Resources requires 8 mining enterprises to supplement relevant materials for the mineral resource reserve verification report, but it does not affect the current production plans of the mines and the stability of lithium carbonate supply [2]

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 型班目: | 指标 | | 7月14日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -52 | -36 | 2500 г | ===== 19/20 | ======20/21 ====- 21/22 =====22/23 | | == 23/24 | 24/25 | | | 日照 | -172 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -72 | -16 | 2000 1500 | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | | | -16 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -162 | -16 | -500 09/21 | | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08 ...

贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | 2025/7/14 | 3367.33 | 38. 90 | 3380. 10 | 39. 31 | 778.98 | 9179.00 | | 776. 80 | 9176.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2025/7/11 | 3331.60 | 37.28 | 3342. ...

ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/7/15 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/14 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4710 | 4735 | 25.00 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4384 | 4398 | 14. 00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨36至6436。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4700 | 4740 | 40. 00 | 短纤生产企业价格稳定,贸易商价格偏暖,下游 | | MEG收盘价 | 4305 | ...