| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | CITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | PVC数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 2025/10/17 陈一凡 ·· 从业资格证:F3054270 | | | 指标 | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | 煤灰 | Q5500 | 728 | 736 | 18 | | | 兰炭 | 陕西中料 | 730 | 730 | | | | 电石 | 内蒙 | 2500 | 2500 | | | | | 山东 | 2830 | 2830 | | 今日国内PVC粉市场价格窄幅整理,主流市场小幅涨跌 | | 期货 | | | | | | | | 丰力件学 | 4677 | 4694 | 17 | 并存,价格波动幅度多在0-10元/吨。期货昨日夜盘走 | | | 华东SG-5 | 4580 | 4580 | 0 | 弱,今日整体略偏强 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

ITG 国贸期货 胶产业数据日报 2025/10/17 | 100 | | 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 从业资格证号:F3071622 | | | | | | | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 | | | 数据来源:Wind 钢联数据库 | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | | | RU主力 | 14900 | 14895 | +5 | | | 国内 | NR主力 | 12315 | 12235 | +80 | | 期货盘面 | | BR主力 | 11135 | 10895 | +240 | | | 外盘 | Tocom RSS3(日元/千克) | 311. 5 | 311.8 | -0.3 | | | | Sicom TF(美分/千克) | 169. 0 | 169. 0 | 0.0 -10 | | | | RU2605-RU2601 RU2609-RU2605 | -10 0 | 0 15 | -15 | | | 跨期价差 | | | | | | | | NR主力-次主力 | -50 ...

国贸期货研究院 杨路林 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 原木数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 2025/10/17 | | 地区 | 树种 | 规格 | 现货尺价格 | 期货尺价格 | 期货尺±升贴水 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3.9米中A | 760 | 820 | 820 | 23.0 | | | 山东 | 辐射松 | 5.9米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | 13.0 | | | | | 3.9米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | 43.0 | | | | | 5.9米小A | 760 | 830 | 830 | 33.0 | | 现货价 | | | 4米中A | 770 | 830 | 830 | 33.0 | | | 江苏 | 辐射松 | 6米中A | 800 | 860 | 810 | 13.0 | | | | | 4米小A | 720 | 790 | 840 | 43. 0 | | | | | 6米小A | 750 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is oscillating weakly, and the low valuation is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On October 11, 2025, the average price of the domestic LPG market dropped by 7 yuan/ton to 4451 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.16%. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 120 yuan/ton to 4268 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89% [4] International Market - Affected by tariff policies, the international market prices fluctuated widely this week, with the average price finally falling. Due to the tight supply and demand of butane, the price trend of butane is stronger than that of propane. Market concerns have resurfaced, and Chinese importers have generally turned to purchasing US resources, resulting in high discounts for non-US resources to China. As the external market prices have fallen to relatively low levels, it has attracted buyers, and the strong demand from Sinopec has promoted the recovery of market buying interest and price stabilization and rebound [4] East China Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The civil gas market in East China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with the overall atmosphere being average. Affected by the increase in supply from Shandong and warehouse receipts, the prices continued to decline. The price of imported gas was high in the early stage, but it showed signs of loosening in the later stage [4] South China Region - The average price of the civil gas market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a decrease of -0.44%. The price center of the civil gas market in South China continued to decline this week, with the final average price slightly falling. Affected by the decline of international oil prices and the external LPG market, the bearish sentiment in the market has increased. Although importers are willing to support prices, the downstream demand remains weak. In terms of industrial gas, prices in different regions have adjusted up and down, and the regional price difference has narrowed, with production and sales basically balanced [4] Shandong Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4450 yuan/ton. The average price of etherified C4 decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 4370 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.64%. The civil gas market in Shandong first stabilized and then declined this week, with the price center significantly shifting downward. Due to the unexpected increase in the release of refineries in the province, the market supply exceeded demand, and the market price dropped to a new low for the year [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | (G国贸期货 双胶纸数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 2025/10/17 | | | | | 双胶纸期货数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月16日 | | 2025年10月15日 | 日环比 | | 2025年10月16日 | 2025年10月15日 | 日环比 | | 0P2601 | 4210 | 4206 | 0. 10% | 主力合约持仓量 | 1107 | 1153 | -3.99% | | | | | | 现货价格数据(元/吨) | | | | | 双胶纸价格数据 | | | | | | 铜版纸价格数据 | | | 价格 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | 价格 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | 山东高白天鹅 | 4675 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | 广东晨鸣雪兔 | 4650 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 山东本白天阳 | 4475 | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute on October 17, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Market Quotes Summary Futures Market - The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,895 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 2.20% [3] - The settlement price was 11,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.85% [3] - The trading volume was 18,411 lots, with a 0.00% change, and the position was 76,904 lots, up 27.63% [3] Spot Market - Sinopec Chemical Sales' high - cis butadiene rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton this cycle, and PetroChina's main sales companies' price decreased by 500 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 16, 2025, Sinopec Chemical Sales' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3] Price Differences - The month - to - month spread between the second and first contracts was 25 yuan/ton, up 150.00% [3] - The spread between BR and RU was 5.88% [3] - The spread between BR and NR was 11.94% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Trends - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to decline and then rebounded rapidly this cycle. The spot price ranged from 10,600 to 11,400 yuan/ton [3] - At the end of the cycle, under the influence of factors such as increased domestic maintenance losses in October - December and the US interest rate cut, the futures and spot prices of butadiene rubber rebounded rapidly [3] Supply and Demand - The external sales resources of raw materials were sufficient this cycle, but the spot negotiation focus gradually stopped falling, and the weak cost situation of butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated [3] - Due to the successive maintenance of butadiene rubber plants of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease significantly [3] - There is marginal production profit in private butadiene rubber, leading to an increase in supply, and the price of private resources in the spot market has been lower than that of the two major oil companies [3] - Downstream procurement continued to suppress prices, causing the spot negotiation focus to decline continuously [3] Group 4: Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BR market is expected to consolidate [3] - Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | CITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | PVC数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 2025/10/17 陈一凡 ·· 从业资格证:F3054270 | | | 指标 | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | 煤灰 | Q5500 | 728 | 736 | 18 | | | 兰炭 | 陕西中料 | 730 | 730 | | | | 电石 | 内蒙 | 2500 | 2500 | | | | | 山东 | 2830 | 2830 | | 今日国内PVC粉市场价格窄幅整理,主流市场小幅涨跌 | | 期货 | | | | | | | | 丰力件学 | 4677 | 4694 | 17 | 并存,价格波动幅度多在0-10元/吨。期货昨日夜盘走 | | | 华东SG-5 | 4580 | 4580 | 0 | 弱,今日整体略偏强 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has seen an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October due to the resumption of production in Qinghai and the ramping - up of new capacities in other regions. The demand side may see a reduction in silicon wafer production scheduling in October due to the fourth - quarter quota limit. The inventory side shows an accumulation of factory and warehouse - receipt inventories. The two ministries have emphasized not to bid below cost, strengthening the effectiveness of cost support. A policy framework of "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" for polysilicon has basically taken shape, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals of polysilicon may improve. However, due to the long - term non - fulfillment of the "anti - involution" measure, market sentiment has faded, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 52,575 with a 3.36% increase; PS2510 closed at 55,000 with a 3.55% increase; PS2512 closed at 55,050 with a 3.18% increase; PS2601 closed at 54,975 with a 3.18% increase [1] Price Difference - The price difference between PS2510 - PS2511 is - 20 with a change of 90; the price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is 15 with a change of - 2475; the price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 75 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense polysilicon is 51.25 with no change; the average price of N - type mixed - material polysilicon is 50.25 with no change [1][2] Basis - The basis of N - type dense material - PS2511 is - 1325 with a change of - 1710; the basis of N - type mixed - material polysilicon - PS2511 is - 2325 with a change of - 1710 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 25.3 with an increase of 1.3; the silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 17.31 with an increase of 0.53; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 8130 with an increase of 80 [2] Market News - On October 14, there was market news that relevant authorities might issue a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation. An industry insider close to the authorities said the document might be released soon, including requirements for limiting the capacity utilization rate of the entire industrial chain and banning new capacity to achieve supply - demand balance [2]

| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 系碱数据 品报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | | 从业资格证:F3054270 2025/10/17 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | 指标 | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/16 | | 涨跌值 | 行情综述 | | 山东 | | 200 | 200 | 0 | | | 原盐 | 江苏 | 260 | 260 | 0 | | | 西北 | | 200 | 200 | | | | 电石 | 山东 | 2830 | 2830 | | | | 内蒙 | | 2425 | 2425 | 0 | | | 山东 | | | 50 | 49 | | | 液氯 | 江苏 | 81 | | 0 | 今日国内液碱市场成交调整不一,多地价格 | | 西北 C | | -100 | -50 | 50 | 持稳,山东、河北32%液碱价格稳中有涨,河 | | 山东 | | 830 | 830 ...