投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 日期 日期 美债2年期收益率 美元指数 美债10年期收益率 VIX 标普500 NYMEX原油 美元/人民币中间价 2025/7/21 7. 15 2025/7/18 98. 46 4. 44 16. 41 6296. 79 66. 03 3. 88 科率/汇 率/股市 7. 15 4. 47 2025/7/18 2025/7/17 98. 64 3.91 16. 52 6297. 36 66. 31 涨跌幅 0. 03% 流改幅 -0. 18% -0. 77% -0. 67% -0. 67% -0. 01% -0. 42% 1,000 16,000 3,700 120 110 3.200 950 15,000 100 90 2,700 14,000 80 图表分析 13,000 1.700 12,000 2025-07 OWEX手掛け (收益机) 1、美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 61.8，预期 61.5，前值 60.7。美国7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 4.4%，预期 5%，前值 5%。美国7月密歇根大学5年 通胀预期 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 国贸期货研究院 2025/07/22 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM. 公升新闻登坦 1000000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 68000 1350 80000 4000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 66350 1300 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 3000 60000 碳酸锂2508 71260 2. 36% 71280 碳酸锂2509 2.53% 40000 碳酸锂2510 2.5% 70520 碳酸锂2511 > 70200 1000 2. 69% 碳酸锂2512 70140 2.57% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 730 19 4-6 (120.5 5%-6%) 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 消费旺季预期支撑，油价维持偏强震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-07-21 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:消费旺季预期支撑，油价维持偏强震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,460万桶/日，较2024年上升180万桶/ 日；2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,572万桶/日，较2025年上升112万桶/日。(2)OPEC:6月份OPEC国家原油产量为2723.5万桶/日，较5月份上升 | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | | | | | 21.9万桶/日。Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1432.3万桶/日，较5月份上升12.9万桶/日。（3）IEA： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 产区多雨天气扰动，原料成本支撑偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-07-21 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:产区多雨天气扰动，原料成本支撑偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周海南产区降水扰动增多，割胶作业开展不佳，岛内原料生产释放受限明显，全岛日收胶量 大致在3000吨多吨水平，未来一周台风或 | | 供给 | 偏多 | 将带来持续性降水天气。云南产降雨干扰不断，阻碍割胶工作正常开展，胶水供应偏少，原料收购价格居高不下。（2）泰国产区：本周泰国雨水增加， 割胶工作受阻，胶水价格周期内趋势企稳，环比上周期下跌。（3）越南产区：越南产区气候整体平稳，供应稳步增长，胶水收购价维持稳定，胶水资源 | | | | 供应充足加工厂 积极抢收原料带动价格走高。 ...

2012 31 2024-07-21 F3071622 Z0014205 F03133773 | 1 | 1.6 | 79 | 0.07 | 10.99 | ; | 2 | 20 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 82.6% | +2.2% | +1.6% | 79.9% | +16.0% | 80.2% | +2.9% | 75.7% | +2.9% | 86.4 | -4.5% | 87.5% | | 1 | 2 | 84.55% | +6.75% | | | | | | | | | | 3 | 58.9% | . | 3 | 2025 | 6 | 49.27% | | | | | | | 1 | 20 | 37.43 | ( | ) | 2.58% | 2.64% | 21.63% | | | | | | 1.13% | 2 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 80 | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 市场流动性和情绪尚好，股指偏强运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-7-21 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济和企 | | 2025年上半年中国经济"成绩单"出炉，上半年我国实现GDP总额660536亿元，同比增长5.3%。其中供给端继续强势，6月工业增加值同比增 6.8%，但需求端有所走弱，其中1-6月地产投资进一步下行至-11.2%，地产下行趋势未变;6月消费增速4.8%，低于上个月的6.4%，显示政策补贴 | | 业盈利 | 中性 | 的作用有所减弱。中国6月出口同比增长5.8%（以美元计），前值增4.8%。从出口国来看，6月处于中美"对等关税"暂缓期，中美外贸明显恢 | | | | 复，我国对美出口额环比改善32.44%至381.7亿美元，占我国总出口额的比重从5月的9.12%明显上升至11.74%。 | | 宏观政策 | 中性 | "反内卷"政策现新动向。工业和信息化部表示，钢铁、有色金属、石 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 跟随市场情绪，基本面持稳 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-07-21 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 纯碱:价格承压为主 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 供应增加，本周纯碱产量73.32万吨，环比增加2.42万吨，涨幅3.42%。其中，轻质碱产量31.85万吨，环比增加0.97万吨。重质碱产量41.47万 吨，环比增加1.45万吨。企业检修恢复，供应增加。近期装置检修零散，涉及产能小，整体供应损失少，且个别的装置检修恢复，预计下周整 | | | | 体供应呈现增加趋势。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 浮法光伏需求走弱，光伏持续减产，且终端需求不理想，下游按需采购为主，整体需求向弱。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | 库存增加，厂家总 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 原料端走强支撑，BR盘面高位震荡运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-7-21 分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：原料端走强支撑，B R盘面震荡上行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 10 18 万吨（ -2 86% ），产能利用率为 68 89 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 63 万吨（ -2 16% ），产能利用率为 65 54 %； | | | | | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、浙石化3#、上海赛科一套等装置维持停车状态，盛虹短期停车后陆续重启，影响产量下降；顺丁 | | | | | | | | 方面，周内仅个别装置负荷小幅下降，下 ...

Market Review - The closing prices of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2744.2604, 4034.491, and 6535.6713 respectively, with changes of 0.12%, 0.68%, and 1.14% [4]. - The trading volumes of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 36.15 billion, 161.25 billion, and 227.83 billion respectively, and the turnovers were 746.46 billion yuan, 3255.17 billion yuan, and 3259.84 billion yuan respectively [4]. - In the CFFEX stock index options trading, the option trading volumes of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 3.97 million contracts, 9.93 million contracts, and 27.30 million contracts respectively, and the option open - interests were 7.76 million contracts, 20.16 million contracts, and 28.66 million contracts respectively [4]. Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility and implied volatility curves are provided for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including maximum, minimum, percentile values, and current values [8][9]. Overall Market Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.75%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.86%, the STAR 50 rose 0.8%, the Wind All - A rose 0.94%, the Wind A500 rose 0.83%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.9% [9]. - A - share trading volume was 1.56 trillion yuan for the day, compared with 1.46 trillion yuan the previous day [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polycrystalline Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean (MO1), Pulp [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Cotton, Manganese Silicon, Pure Metal, Soda Ash, Corn (C01), Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Silicomanganese, Coking Coal, Coke, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Corn (C09), Live Pig, Energy Chemicals (including various sub - items), etc. [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the market's increased willingness to allocate equity assets and positive market sentiment [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest rate risk prompted by the central bank restricts the upward space [1] - Gold is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term due to market uncertainties, while the strengthening dollar may suppress silver prices [1] - Copper prices have a risk of supplementary decline, aluminum and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and zinc prices are under pressure [1] - Nickel and stainless steel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but a risk of a downward - moving center in the long term [1] - Some commodities like polycrystalline silicon are bullish, while others such as manganese silicon are bearish, and most commodities are in an oscillating state due to various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment [1] Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The reaction of the recent stock index to negative news is significantly dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets increases, and market sentiment is boosted by "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market uncertainties remain, and the price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1] - **Silver**: The strengthening dollar may suppress the price [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation in August bring a risk of supplementary decline in copper prices [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, inventory rises, and prices oscillate weakly; alumina has a good profit, with rising production and inventory, and its price also oscillates weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The weakening of interest - rate cut expectations and the gradual realization of inventory - accumulation expectations put pressure on zinc prices [1] - **Nickel**: The interest - rate cut expectation weakens, and the price oscillates. There is a short - term opportunity to short on rallies, and long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The interest - rate cut expectation falls, raw - material prices weaken, inventory increases, and attention should be paid to production and raw - material changes [1] - **Tin**: Short - term fundamentals are supported, but there is a risk of a downward - moving price center in the long term [1] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreases in the north and increases in the south, demand from polycrystalline silicon increases marginally but may decrease later, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Bullish due to no supply reduction and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply does not decrease, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and market sentiment is high [1] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and prices oscillate [1] - **Iron Ore**: Commodity sentiment is good, but fundamentals are marginally weakening, and prices oscillate [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Production increases slightly, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and prices oscillate [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish due to expected international demand growth, an upward - adjusted reference price in Malaysia, and short - term exhaustion of negative factors [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Australian rapeseed may enter the domestic market, Sino - Canadian trade frictions continue, and domestic rapeseed inventory is low [1] - **Cotton**: There are trade - negotiation and weather premiums in US cotton in the short term, and macro - uncertainties are strong in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the weakening of crude oil may affect the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop inventory is tightening, but downstream procurement is cautious. New - season corn has a good yield and lower production costs [1] - **Soybean**: There are expectations of increased Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and the import cost supports the price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by strong commodity sentiment and low valuation, it is expected to rise in the short term [1] - **Live Pig**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ is expected to increase production, and short - term consumption in Europe and the US is strong, so prices oscillate [1] - **HK and BR Rubber**: HK has a weakening downstream demand and strong supply - release expectations; BR rubber has cost - end support from partial device overhauls [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: PTA supply contracts, but crude oil is strong, and polyester downstream load remains high; ethylene glycol has a large expected arrival volume later, but overseas supply may contract [1] - **Short Fiber and Styrene**: Short - fiber factories have more overhauls and low warehouse - receipt registration; styrene device load recovers, and the basis weakens [1] - **Fertilizer**: Domestic demand is average, but export expectations improve in the second half of the year [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: PVC has a good market sentiment but faces seasonal supply pressure; chlor - alkali has a repaired comprehensive profit and more expected warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Crude - oil support is insufficient, it is in the seasonal off - season for demand, and the price oscillates weakly [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with the freight rate expected to peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend [1]