2012 31 2025-10-20 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 国庆节后国内商品走势偏弱，其中，黄金涨幅居前，工业品、农产品均多数下跌。中美贸易冲突再起，市场避险情绪高涨，黄金价格续创新高，大宗商品普遍走 | | | 弱，不同品种间跌幅略有差异。 | | 海外 | 1）国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了最新《世界经济展望》，指出全球仍处于"低增长、高不确定性"的轨道，但新兴市场展现出超预期韧性，外部环境阶段性 | | | 有利，且政策框架显著提升——货币政策更透明与独立、通胀预期更锚定，外汇干预减少；财政政策更趋反周期、债务可持续性改善，但部分经济体财政缓冲消 | | | 耗加快，一旦全球流动性再收紧，脆弱性可能暴露。2）美联储释放偏鸽的信息，美联储主席鲍威尔在宾夕法尼亚州费城举行的全国商业经济学会中发表讲话：9 | | | 月会议以来美国经济前景未发生显著变化，但就业市场的下行风险有所增加，同时明确表示美联储可能在未来几个月停止缩减资产负债表规模。3）美国联邦储备 | | | 委员会发布经济状 ...

市场情绪悲观，关注中美政策 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：市场情绪悲观，关注中美政策 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 豆粕偏空， 菜粕偏多 | （1）受8月后美豆产区降雨偏少影响，USDA预估的2025/26年度美豆单产53.5蒲式耳/英亩预期仍有一定的下调空间。受美国政府停摆影响，USDA作物生 长报告延迟公布;（2）巴西大豆种植已拉开序幕，目前早播工作较为顺利，根据CONAB数据，截至10月14日，巴西大豆播种率达11.1%，高于去年同期的 9.1%，但低于五年均值16.9%；（3）10月国内大豆预期开始去库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松，若中国无法采购美豆，明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补 | | | | 充，补充 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 基本面变动不大，消息引发波动 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 有色及新能源价格监测 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 03 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 有色及新能源价格监测 有色金属价格监测 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 | | | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | | 品 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 老仓单压力较大，维持11-1反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆：老仓单压力较大，维持11-1反套 | 影响因素 | | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | | 偏空 | Suzano宣布2025年9月亚洲价格上涨20美元/吨，欧美价格上涨80美元/吨；智利Arauco公司9月针叶浆银星报价700美元/吨；阔叶浆明星 报价540美元/吨，上涨20美元/吨；阔叶浆外盘连续两期外盘报价上涨，但针叶浆外盘报价下降。九月南美三国出口量增加，预计供应 | | | | | 仍维持宽松状态。 | | 需求 | | 偏空 | 除白卡纸外其他木浆用纸的产量和价格均没有出现明显上涨，成品纸库存较高，纸厂维持刚需补库，暂未对浆价有 ...

2 200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/17 | 4360. 01 | 54. 21 | 4372. 50 | 53. 15 | 999. 80 | 12249.00 | 997.00 | 12220.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 原油持续下挫，沥青缓慢跟跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 沥青：原油持续下挫，沥青缓慢跟跌 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给 中性 （1）10月地炼排产：对于10月地炼排产，两家资讯公司跟踪分别为160.4万吨及161万吨，环比分别上涨3%和9%。产量变动受多重因素影响：当前国际 原油价格走势偏弱，为地方炼厂生产沥青创造了利润改善空间，且 9-10 月原料供应较为充足，叠加传统需求旺季的利好支撑，多数地炼生产沥青的积极 性较高，其中河北鑫海、京博海南、弘润石化等炼厂的沥青装置维持满负荷运行，东明石化也在检修结束后于 10 月恢复稳定生产，共同推动沥青产量 环比提升。不过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices first soared and then declined, but still had significant weekly gains. Factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and loan fraud issues in U.S. regional banks increased market concerns about potential risks in the U.S. credit market, boosting the demand for safe - havens and driving up precious metal prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut also contributed to the price increase. However, the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions led to a rapid decline in market risk aversion and a sharp drop in precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, due to the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions, precious metal prices may need adjustment. But considering the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the expected Fed rate cut in October, prices are expected to move in a volatile range. For silver, the tight physical supply in London needs attention. If the shortage is alleviated, silver prices may face further adjustment risks. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid, supported by factors such as the continuous rise of the U.S. federal government debt, expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips after the adjustment in the long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 - **Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio**: The report presents the price trends of gold and silver through charts, including London spot gold, Shanghai gold futures, London spot silver, and Shanghai silver futures. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios are also shown [5][6][7][8]. - **ETFs and CFTC Positions**: Charts display the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the holdings of gold SPDR - ETF and silver SLV - ETF. The data shows changes in market sentiment and investment trends [26][27][28][30][31]. - **Inventory Data**: Information on the inventories of gold and silver in SHFE, COMEX, SGE, and LBMA is presented, which can reflect the supply and demand situation in the market [32][33][35][37]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 - **Major Macroeconomic Indicators**: The report tracks indicators such as the U.S. GDP growth rate, manufacturing and service PMI, consumer confidence index, employment data, inflation data, and central bank gold - buying. These indicators can help analyze the macro - economic environment and its impact on precious metal prices [55][56][57][62][68][82]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. GDP has strong growth, but the manufacturing and service PMIs have declined. Employment has cooled significantly, inflation shows signs of rising, and consumer confidence has dropped [55][56][57][62][68]. - **Eurozone Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone GDP has bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI has increased, while the service PMI has declined. Inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK are also presented [77][78][81]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. Global central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, which provides support for the upward movement of the gold price [83][87].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/10/20 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 2967. 7748 上证50 -1. 70 1487. 49 62. 68 -2. 26 沪深300 #N/A 5590. 86 256. 91 7185. 4781 3838. 75 中证1000 -2. 92 254. 33 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认沾期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 7. 47 0. 70 2. 83 0. 61 2. 94 2. 05 4. 64 4. 99 沪深300 22. 84 12. 28 0. 86 13. 31 7. 78 5. 54 0. 71 10. 56 22. 21 中证1000 44. 22 22. 01 0. 99 22. 13 11. 69 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/10/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | | | | | | | == | 现值 | 1310 | 973 | 1936 | 862 | 2853 | 1145 | | Alle | 前值 | 1160 | 1015 | 1468 | 876 | 2452 | 1068 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 12.92% | -4.11% | 31.88% | -1.60% | 16.35% | 7.21% | | 指 | | SCFIS-西北欧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of polyester has shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, and the PTA port inventory has slightly increased. The PTA basis has stabilized, but the profit has continued to shrink. The PX - naphtha spread is at $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the absolute price has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The overall market is expected to oscillate mainly due to the lack of obvious driving factors [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The trade war may escalate, slightly affecting China's crude oil imports. The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost has weakened, and although the PXN has expanded, polyester has followed the decline in crude oil [4] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the weaving can maintain the load after the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [4] - **Basis**: It is bearish. The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is still very loose [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan, and the PTA processing fee has expanded [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the end of the domestic maintenance season, the reforming devices are gradually recovering, and the absolute price of PTA has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices [4] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [4] - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Macro Situation**: On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy seems to be in a stable state, but the government shutdown may affect data collection. On October 17, major European stock indexes fell in early trading, with concerns about the banking industry spreading, and the European defense stocks also attracted attention [8] - **Gasoline**: The shutdown of the US government may affect demand in the off - season. The North American refinery load has declined, the total gasoline inventory has decreased by 1.6 million barrels, indicating strong terminal demand. The price of high - octane aromatics has remained relatively stable, and its spread with RBOB gasoline has remained stable at 68 cents [22] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply Increase**: With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical, the supply of MX is expected to increase in October. The future domestic xylene capacity will continue to be put into production at a high speed, with 1.7 million tons of xylene devices in Jiujiang Petrochemical, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei waiting to be put into production in 2026 [62] - **Market Situation**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price has suppressed the disproportionation profit. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, the operating rate has significantly recovered, and the load has reached a very high level [40][54][62] - **Outlook**: Mixed xylene is facing continuous downward pressure. The profit of both gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming has recovered, but the PTA supply side has shrunk, the processing fee has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity [52][66] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The inventory in East China ethylene glycol ports is still at a low level, the arrival volume at ports is limited, the import volume in the overseas market is expected to decline, and the new domestic devices have put pressure on the price. The coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has continued to recover, and the profit has been repaired [80] - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation [81] - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, but the weaving load may decline. The polyester production has increased, and the downstream has entered the off - season [88][90]