Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report] - Dollar Index Drops, Non-ferrous Sector Oscillates Higher [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling, Lin Jingyan Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The dollar index has declined, leading to an oscillating upward trend in the non-ferrous sector [1] - For copper, short - term price pressure exists due to the US delaying new tariffs on key mineral imports, but the decline is limited due to the falling dollar index and improved market sentiment [8] - For zinc, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient, and its price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [95] - For nickel and stainless steel, due to factors such as potential supply shortages in Indonesia and shipping incidents in the Philippines, nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level, with attention to potential risks such as short - squeeze in near - month contracts [198][199] Group 4: Summary by Section 4.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The dollar index is at 97.5, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a weekly decline of 1.88%, and an annual decline of 0.78%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.9642, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, and an annual decline of 0.35% [6] - Most non - ferrous metals show varying degrees of price changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 7.55%, a weekly increase of 24.16%, and an annual increase of 49.30% [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's 2025 GDP growth meets expectations, and recent domestic policies may improve domestic demand. The US has some policy stances that affect market risk appetite, and the dollar index is under pressure [8] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreases, the port inventory slightly increases, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 is set at 0 [8] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore slightly expands, while the profit of those using long - term contracts increases [8] - **Demand End**: The downstream demand is released as the copper price falls, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increases [8] - **Inventory**: Global copper inventories increase significantly [8] - **Investment View**: The copper price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The macro - sentiment is complex, with geopolitical disturbances and central bank policy expectations affecting the market [95] - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, the imported processing fee continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ore may be affected by geopolitical risks [95] - **Smelting End**: The domestic zinc ingot production continues to shrink, and the average loss per ton of zinc for smelters narrows slightly [95] - **Demand End**: The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, and the procurement is mainly for rigid needs [95] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and LME inventory of zinc ingots both show a slight increase [95] - **Investment View**: The zinc price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [95] 4.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Macro Factors**: The US PCE inflation data meets expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged. The Chinese central bank may implement further policies. Indonesia's policies increase concerns about nickel supply [198][199] - **Raw Material End**: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is firm, the rainfall in the Philippine production area affects transportation, and the domestic port inventory of nickel ore is decreasing [198][199] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel and nickel - iron may increase, and the production of stainless steel is expected to rise in January [198][199] - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The demand for new energy is affected by the production schedule of precursor enterprises [198][199] - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories are increasing [198] - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances and potential short - squeeze risks [198][199]

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需平淡，价格震荡 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-01-26 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需平淡，价格震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.07万吨，与15日持平。行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15日持平。 | | | | 本周无产线放水或者点火，日产量维持平稳。下周暂无产线存在点火或者冷修预期，短期供给持稳。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，但随着时间的推移，需求端受季节性因素影响，多逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对原 片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅累库，企业总库存5321.6万重箱，环比+20.3万重箱，环比+0.38% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏多 | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能；（3）3月1日前加拿大菜籽将适用15%税率，较此前进口成本大幅下降，或带来油厂 | | | | 的采买节奏，澳籽后续也有进商业压榨预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）印度和国内备货节奏对油脂需求有明显提振，但需考虑品种间的替代；（2）印尼声称推迟B50的消息对棕榈油远月价格有情绪上的利空，但未必 真的今年不落地；（3）美国生柴整体配额预计维持此前草案的水平或更低，但取消了对进口投料的惩罚，更利好加拿大菜系产品需求，等待3月初政策 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木期货受宏观情绪影响大幅波动 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 原木期货受宏观情绪影响大幅波动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | | | | | | 原木主要数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要数据 | | 最新 | 上期 | | 涨幅 | | 主要数据 | 最新 | | | 上期 | | 涨幅 | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 776 | 778 5 . | - 0 . | 32% | | 总库存 | 256 | 7 . | 268 | 3 . | - 4 . | 32% | | 期货价格 | 总持仓 | 16472 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场资金加速流入，纯苯苯乙烯大幅上涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 苯乙烯：市场资金加速流入，纯苯苯乙烯大幅上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差为342美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差稳定在212美元，非一体化装置利润修复。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 截至2026年1月19日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.7万吨，较上期库存32.4万吨去库2.7万吨，环比下降8.33%；较去年同期库存14.3万吨累库15.4 万吨，同比上升107.69%。1月12日-1月18日，不完全统计到货0吨，提货约2.7万吨。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2026年1月19日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：9.35万吨，较上周期减0.71万吨，幅度-7.06%。商品量库存在5.89万吨，较上周期减0.1万吨，幅度 1.67%。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-01-26 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 行 情 延 续 震 荡 ， 关 注 基 差 错 配 机 会 板 块 震 荡 运 行 ， 现 货 驱 动 不 足 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 " 复 产 + 补 库 " 的 短 期 支 撑 和 库 存 的 长 期 压 力 交易策略 单边：区间或短多思路。套利：关注做扩卷螺差。期现：热卷期现正套滚动操作。 风险：国内产业政策的突发变化 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 ...

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：下游MTO停工，伊朗局势反复 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周甲醇供给呈"国内稳、进口缩"格局。国内装置开工率77.91%，环比微降0.18%，煤制甲醇开工高位支撑产量，新疆100万吨级新产能投产补充供应，仅天然气制装置开工小幅下滑。 | | | | 进口端收缩明显，伊朗冬季限气致多套装置停车，本周港口到港28.49万吨，华东到港略减、华南增量。库存方面，港口总量145.75万吨小幅累库，华东去库与华南累库形成对冲，整体维 | | | | 持历史中高位置，供应整体充裕但进口缩减缓解库存压力。 | | 需求 | 利空 | 本周甲醇需求整体偏弱，结构性分化显著。主力下游MTO开工率回落，兴兴等装置检修，外采需求缩减。传统下游表现分化，醋酸、MTBE开工小幅回升，甲醛、二甲醚维持低位。内地 | | | | 采购情绪清淡，港口提货力度不一，总消费量环比微降。短期受装置检修拖累，需求缺乏上行驱动，后续需关注MTO重启进度。 | | 库 ...

|数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) ==== 2020 ===== 2021 ==== 2022 ==== 2023 ===== 2024 ==== 2025 ==== 2020 ==== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 ===== 2024 ===== 2024 - 2025 · 2026 2026 250 100 200 80 开机和压榨情况 60 1 90 100 40 50 20 11/07 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 07/06 08/06 09/06 12/08 12/08 06/05 10/07 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 01/01 (万吨) ------ 2019 ----- 2020 ------ 2021 ----- 2022 ----- 2023 ------ 2024 - 2026 2025 2026 2025 == == ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 抢出口需求带动碳酸锂淡季去库 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-26 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅：供给 端短期扰动 ，需求端趋势性收缩 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产7.62 万吨，环比-2.78%；全国开炉217 台，环比-4台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.10 万吨，环比-0.04%，开炉数环比不变。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比不变。四川地区周产 0万吨。 | | | | （3）12月产量39.71万吨，环比-1.15%，同比+19.75 ...