2025/10/20 | 指标 | | 10月17日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | == | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 | 132 | 19 | 1600 800 | こここで 18/19 ----- 22/23 | ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 112 | 19 | 1200 | | | | | | | 日照 | 82 | | 400 | | | | | | | 张家港 | 52 | 39 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 | 12/28 | | | 东莞 | 32 | Ia | | | M1-M5 | | | | | 湛江 | 82 | 29 | 1000 | --- | ニニニー 19/20 --- ...

国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-20 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 关税摩擦扰动市场，股指下跌 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 出口数据好于预期。海关总署公布数据显示，2025年以来，面对中美关税政策的反复扰动，我国外贸展现出较强韧性。1-9月以人民币计价的出 | | | | 口额同比增长7.1%。其中，9月当月出口同比增速达8.4%，提升主要受基数效应及机电产品的强势表现的共同推动。 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 9月CPI和PPI同比降幅均有所收窄。9月CPI同比下降0.3%，较上月的-0.4%略有回升，但仍低于市场预期的-0.1%。从结构上看，食品价格同比 | | 业盈利 | | 下降4.4%，降幅较上月扩大0.1个百分点；非食品价格同比上涨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：三油走势分化，等待趋势性驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）印马棕榈油产地库存高位；（2）大豆油厂压榨量增加；（3）国内棕榈油和豆油库存反弹。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）产地方面印尼B50积极推进中；（2）美国生柴RVO未落定，或视贸易摩擦结果而定；（3）国内旺季成色偏差，油脂成交量较同期偏低。 | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 国内油脂总库存有所累库，但主要原因是假期提货量减少，基于大豆油厂降压榨挺价、菜籽油厂缺少菜籽的情况，后续油脂库存预计整体走低。 | | 宏观及政策 | 观望 | （1）中美领导人会面前摩擦不断，不确定性增加；（2）印尼官方宣布B50处于道路实验中，预计明年 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 债期企稳修复 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2025-10-20 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 本周国债期货市场明显走强，情绪大幅好转，30年期主力合约和10年期主力合约周涨幅分别为1.67%和0.29%，周五30年期TL2512以光头阳线强势收涨。市场情绪明显修复主 要体现如下，一是30年期限合约明显强于其他期限的合约，表明市场投机情绪好转，不再陷入熊市的悲观之中，二是期限利差、税收利差、新老利差都在收窄，市场预期转向 震荡修复。本轮修复的导火索是中美冲突对抗升级，虽然美方在后续表态中态度有所软化，但在关税和稀土管制生效前，双方的博弈大概率反复拉扯，当下看市场以偏乐观的方 式去定价，后续大概率定价需要被修正。周内市场的交易点包括债券基金赎回收费标准的小作文、房贷利率下调的预期等，但A股的阶段性走弱或是债券走强的重要推手。宏观 数据方面，当前物价形势呈现 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | 供给 | 偏空 | 率在76.69%环比减少5.94%，同比减少1.31%；其中电石法在74.71%环比减少8.23%，同比减少1.94%，乙烯法在81.26%环比减少0.64%，同比减少0.40%； | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在7.89万吨，较上期增加3.58万吨。本周检修较 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 全球贸易摩擦反复，有色板块高位回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘局势降温，油价维持弱势 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势降温，油价维持弱势 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | （1）EIA：EIA继续上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年，全球原油及相关液体产量为10,585万桶/日，较2024年上升267 万桶/日。(2)OPEC:9月份OPEC国家原油产量为2844万桶/日，较8月份上升52.4万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1460.6万桶/日，较8月份上升 | | | | 10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：9月份OPEC国家原油产量为2945万桶/日，较8月份上升86万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1453万桶/日，较8月份上 | | | | 升10万桶/日。 | | 需求（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体需求预测，EIA预计2025年全球原油及相关液体需求量为10,39 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 供给端上量预期增强，橡胶维持偏弱表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:供给端上量预期增强，橡胶维持偏弱表现 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）国内产区：云南降雨扰动仍存，但整体影响不大，原料供应尚可，原料收购价格小幅下调。海南产区降水天气扰动持续，对割胶作业影响增强，原料 生产释放受阻明显，产区供应上量节奏缓慢。（2）泰国产区：泰国东北部及北部降雨有缓解，割胶工作正常进行，原料杯胶价格跌幅较 大；泰南不规律降 | | | | 水干扰，原料上量节奏受阻，胶水价格止跌反弹。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气转好，胶水供应趋于正常，前期原料供应紧张的压力得到缓解，胶水价格 波动空间有限。 | | | | （1）截至上周中国全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for both LLDPE and PP, the short - term investment view is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market for LLDPE and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the prices will mainly oscillate. The market has returned to fundamentals due to the fading of macro - sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, mainly due to new maintenance at several plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64% compared to the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.95 million tons, an 8.37% month - on - month increase. The social sample warehouse inventory was 54.56 million tons, a 4.03% month - on - month increase and a 10.85% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of imported polyethylene warehouses increased by 3.32% month - on - month and decreased by 21.57% year - on - year [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 323, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Coal - based and ethane - based production costs increased by 3 and 39 yuan/ton respectively, while oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production costs decreased by 249, 200, and 66 yuan/ton respectively. International oil prices fell this week [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2] PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.22%, a 0.47% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 81.01%, a 1.32% month - on - month increase [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers increased with the cooling weather, while the PP pipe industry was affected by rainy weather. The demand in multiple fields such as food and daily necessities was good before the e - commerce festivals [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 67.87 million tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons, a 1.16% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of trading companies decreased by 2.25 million tons, an 8.60% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 29, with the futures price close to parity [3] - **Profit**: This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. International oil prices fell [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 2.54% to 6551 yuan/ton; PE futures price decreased by 2.32% to 6874 yuan/ton; PP spot price decreased by 3.24% to 6580 yuan/ton; LLDPE spot price decreased by 2.62% to 7050 yuan/ton [5] - **Production**: PP production increased by 13.61%; PE production decreased by 2.05%; HDPE production decreased by 1.39% [5] - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.60% to 38.6%; PE start - up rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.76% [5] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 1.58% to 42970 tons; PE social inventory increased by 3.02% to 66.47 million tons; HDPE social inventory data was unavailable; PP warehouse receipts increased by 2.02% to 14313 hands; PE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 12685 hands [5] - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The agricultural film start - up rate increased by 20.44% to 42.89%; the packaging film start - up rate decreased by 1.32% to 52.19%; the PP pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.89% to 36.6%; the injection - molding start - up rate decreased by 7.57% to 53.48% [5] - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit increased by 5.66% to - 509.7718 yuan/ton; PE weighted profit decreased by 237.96% to 46.287134 yuan/ton [5]

、责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 93.90% 94. 40% 0. 01 涤纶短纤产销 79.00% 81.00% 2. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 63. 50% 63. 50% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51.00% 51. 50% 0. 01 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 宏興宗德■ T325纯漆炒价格 (器比) 照日后 (石井) 条短现金流 =1.4D直线大提 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 300 ...