Market Review - The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2740.9006, 4007.2019, and 6462.063 respectively, with changes of -0.23%, -0.30%, and 0.30%. Their trading volumes were 34.25 billion, 151.03 billion, and 220.23 billion, and trading turnovers were 681.42 billion yuan, 3006.57 billion yuan, and 3060.83 billion yuan [4]. - The option trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 4.24 million, 9.69 million, and 25.56 million contracts respectively. Their option open - interests were 7.53 million, 20.08 million, and 28.70 million contracts [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.03% at 3503.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.22%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.27%, the STAR 50 rose 0.14%, the Wind All - A rose 0.06%, the Wind 8500 fell 0.27%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.22%. A - share trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan, compared with 1.64 trillion yuan the previous day [10]. Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 Volatility - The historical volatility of the Shanghai 50 is presented with values for different time - frames and percentile levels. The difference between HV5 and HV20 is also shown [8][9]. - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve for the Shanghai 50 are analyzed [9]. CSI 300 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 300 shows values for different time - frames and percentile levels, and the difference between HV5 and HV20 is provided [9]. - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve for the CSI 300 are presented [9]. CSI 1000 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 1000 is presented with values for different time - frames and percentile levels [10]. - The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve for the CSI 1000 are analyzed [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].

Group 1: Financial Market Data - DRO01 closed at 1.47 with a -6.11bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -4.05bp change, GC001 at 1.50 with a 0.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.54 with a -1.50bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.35 with a -0.60bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a 0.60bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.66 with a 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.50 with a 7.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.4%, and the net injection was 444.6 billion yuan after 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - This week, 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations. Due to the tax period, liquidity has tightened, and the central bank's reverse repurchases have increased to signal care for the capital market [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.3% to 4007.2, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.23% to 2740.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.03% to 6017.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.3% to 6462.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.442 trillion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan [5] - The stock index fluctuated throughout the day. The banking sector corrected, and small and medium - cap stocks rose slightly due to news about AMD. The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to factors like the "asset shortage" and policy expectations [6] Group 3: Futures Data - IF's current - month contract closed at 3998 with a -0.3% change, IH at 2734 with a -0.2% change, IC at 6007 with no change, and IM at 6444 with a 0.3% change [5] - IF's trading volume was 100,264 with a -19.3% change, and its position was 255,864 with a -4.3% change; IH's trading volume was 49,486 with a -19.3% change, and its position was 91,270 with a -6.4% change; IC's trading volume was 100,200 with a -0.5% change, and its position was 223,573 with a -3.3% change; IM's trading volume was 197,891 with a -6.0% change, and its position was 326,014 with a -5.4% change [5] - IF's current - month contract had an annualized premium rate of 41.91%, IH 48.61%, IC 32.13%, and IM 49.88% [7]

II GER期货 要 3、0A船线下部分船期可保舱目免时效长，目的港可批复异地还箱 。 4、MSK欧线囤有部分单点舱位。 5、PA7月下,部分匹配品名的特价舱仍需提前占舱,整体月底舱位充裕。 6、欧洲港口劳动力短缺、安特卫普港大罢工、莱茵河水位下降、红海航道风险升高等影响欧洲港口堵塞情况仍未缓 解,时效拉长。 【EC】 行情综述:回落。 昨日,EC2510合约再次涨超16%,两天共计上涨超20%。 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号:Z0021177 | 2025/7/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | (三三 | 现值 | 1733 | 13 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/17 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/15 | 2025/7/16 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 2 | 517. 4 | -0. 80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情微幅上涨,市场缺乏最新重大消息指 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 930. 2 | 946. 0 | 15. 81 | 引,现货市场买卖气氛不旺,此前现货基差跌幅较 大,近日现货基差略涨。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2470 | 1. 2516 | 0. 0046 | | | | CFR中国PX | 838 | 834 | -4 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 241 | 250 | 9 | | | | PT ...

责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律 险,入市需谨慎。 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/17 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | · 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/15 | 2025/7/16 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4715 | 4720 | 5.00 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4408 | 4400 | (8.00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌34至6356。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4696 | 4706 | 10. 00 | 短纤生产企业价格一单一谈,贸易商价格偏弱整 | | MEG收盘价 | 4322 | 4351 | 29.00 | 理,下游按需采买,市场成交稀少。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6680 | 6680 | 0.00 | 1.56dtex*38m ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | | 伦敦金现 日期 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | | 2025/7/16 3339.26 | 37.88 | 3346. 10 | 38. 19 | 774. 26 | 9125.00 | 772. 30 | 9105.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: wind) | | 2025/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp futures rose slightly against the backdrop of macro - positive factors, but the increase in spot prices was limited. In the short term, pulp is expected to trade in a range [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5402, down 0.22% week - on - week and up 1.58% compared to the previous period; SP2605 was 5342, up 0.19% week - on - week and down 0.49% compared to the previous period; SP2509 was 5242, down 0.38% week - on - week and up 2.66% compared to the previous period [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.34% compared to the previous period; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged week - on - week and up 3.52% compared to the previous period; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4050, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.75% compared to the previous period [1] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD)**: In July 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In July 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: From May 29 to July 10, 2025, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp fluctuated between 19.9 and 20.9 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp fluctuated between 19.7 and 20.3 tons [1] - **Pulp Shipment to China**: In May 2025, the pulp shipment to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of July 10, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.9 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous period, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper products increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 16, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 58, with a quantile level of 0.813; the Silver Star basis was 678, with a quantile level of 0.905 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 51, with a quantile level of 0.593 [1]

Market Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 14.65 points, a decline of 0.42%, at 3505.0 points, with a turnover of 646.852 billion yuan [8] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed up 60.04 points, a gain of 0.56%, at 10744.56 points, with a turnover of 965.212 billion yuan [8] - The ChiNext Index closed up 37.98 points, a gain of 1.73%, at 2235.05 points, with a turnover of 447.444 billion yuan [8] - The CSI 300 closed up 1.39 points, a gain of 0.03%, at 4019.06 points, with a turnover of 353.525 billion yuan [4][8] Index Details Index Closing Prices and Changes - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 2747.2269, down 0.38% with a turnover of 79.806 billion yuan and a trading volume of 4.117 billion [4] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4019.0644, up 0.03% with a turnover of 353.525 billion yuan and a trading volume of 19.104 billion [4] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6442.834, down 0.30% with a turnover of 347.378 billion yuan and a trading volume of 26.987 billion [4] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, put option trading volume was 2.16 million contracts, call option trading volume was 3.39 million contracts, daily trading volume was 5.55 million contracts (PCR 0.64), option open interest was 7.36 million contracts, call option open interest was 4.64 million contracts, put option open interest was 2.72 million contracts (PCR 0.59) [4] - For the CSI 300 Index, put option trading volume was 4.91 million contracts, call option trading volume was 7.80 million contracts, daily trading volume was 12.71 million contracts (PCR 0.63), option open interest was 19.63 million contracts, call option open interest was 11.30 million contracts, put option open interest was 8.33 million contracts (PCR 0.74) [4] - For the CSI 1000 Index, put option trading volume was 12.79 million contracts, call option trading volume was 14.76 million contracts, daily trading volume was 27.55 million contracts (PCR 0.87), option open interest was 28.27 million contracts, call option open interest was 14.21 million contracts, put option open interest was 14.06 million contracts (PCR 0.99) [4] Volatility Analysis - Volatility analysis was conducted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index including historical volatility chains, maximum and minimum values, percentile values, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility [8][10]

| | I TCTERRET | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博微吟参 | | | | 发布日期:2025 | | | 粉给公用言: ZOUULIC 人业资格号: F025 175 | | | | 行业板块 品種 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 近期股指对利空的反映明显钝化,市场成交量和情绪维持强势。 | | | | 一方"资产荒"情形与"国家队"护盘下,市场对权益资产配置 | | | 版指 農汤 | 的意愿增面,强;另一方面,"反内卷"和地产政策预期对市场情 | | | | 绪带来提振。短期内，股指预计偏强震荡。 | | | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | 国债 農汤 | 空间。 | | | 黄金 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存, 金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | 震荡 日银 | 警惕冲高回落风险。 | | | | 美国通胀反弹,打压降息预期。此外,美国铜关税或于近期落 | | | 看空 第四 | 地,美国以外地区铜有回流压力,沪铜及伦铜价格存在补跌风险 | | | 看空 | 电解铝高价压制下游需求,电解铝库 ...