投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 宏观消息扰动，煤炭成本支撑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 甲醇各地现货价格（元/吨） 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：宏观消息扰动，煤炭成本支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周国内甲醇装置检修与重启同步进行。宁夏、山西及华东地区有部分装置检修停车，但前期停车装置逐步恢复生产。减产装置增加，前期恢复装置减少，整体损失量多于恢 | | | | 复量，导致产量减少。 | | | | 下游消费量中，主要下游MTO消费量变动有限，其他下游消费量下跌为主。近期国内烯烃装置整体运行平稳。新疆一套 20 万吨装置已重启，但暂未达满负荷；宁夏、内蒙古个 | | 需求 | 中性 | 别烯烃厂暂停甲醇外采，导致主力下游实际需求有所收缩。不过后续内蒙古 80 万吨烯烃装置预计持续外采，或对南北线市场形成支撑，需关注河南乙 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the weak and volatile crude oil market, and its price has declined. The supply side of PTA has shrunk, and its processing fee has continued to be low. The industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. With the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the impact of the trade war on textile and clothing demand, and the PTA operating rate may further decline. It is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports within the week is still limited. Overseas imports of ethylene glycol are expected to decline, while domestic device commissioning has put continuous pressure on the price of ethylene glycol. As the polyester peak season is coming to an end and the crude oil fundamentals are weak, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 443.8 yuan/barrel on October 16, 2025, to 432.6 yuan/barrel on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased by 27.39 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 9. The PTA main futures price dropped by 54.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price dropped by 15.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 36.8 yuan/ton. The MEG main futures price dropped by 86.0 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha decreased by 8.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 84.62%. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.63% to 77.58%, the MEG operating rate decreased by 0.66% to 65.84%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Polyester Filament - The prices of POY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton and 45.0 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton. The POY cash flow remained unchanged at 126, the FDY cash flow increased by 30.0 to (199), and the DTY cash flow decreased by 35.0 to 191. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 25% to 67% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow remained unchanged at 381, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 3% to 84% [2]. Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow remained unchanged at 46, and the chip sales rate decreased by 137% to 188% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 丙弱丁强走势分化，内盘PG估值向上修复 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 能化产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 0949 . | -0 03% . | -0 14% . | -0 18% . | -0 05% . | | ...

| | | | | | | | Hart Article Fix | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/20 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | 1000 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 原料检修提供支撑，BR价格阶段性反弹修复 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：原料检修提供支撑，B R价格阶段性反弹修复 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 10 22 万吨（ -2 36% ），产能利用率为 65 79 %；高顺顺丁产量 3 00 万吨（ 0 18% ），产能利用率为 74 82 %； | | 供给 | 偏多 | （2）南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、吉林石化一期、抚顺石化、广州石化、镇海炼化、北方华锦等装置维持停车状态，同时齐鲁石化、山东某石化2号 | | | | 装置停车，影响产量预期外下降；山东益华、山东威特顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，齐鲁石化、扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。 | | 需 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 74442 H tt 利 -2159 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 77485 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7190 T V 我国科研人员解决全固态金属锂电池界面接触难题。中国科学院物理研究所研究员黄学杰团队联合华中科技大学、中国科学院宁波材料技术 究所等组成的研究团队开发出一种阴离子调控技术，解决了全固态金属锂电池中电解质和锂电极之间难以紧密接触的难题， 键技术支撑。相关研究成果已于7日发表在国际学术期刊《自然-可持续发展》上。 H 求旺盛，刺激下游增加碳酸锂采买，带动社会库存去库。碳酸锂产量有所增加,或压制期价。短期内,供需错配,推升价格, 中长期 员 免 国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资资 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料, 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 ITC国贸期货 ...

2 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 工工国贸期货 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年10月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年10月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5152 | -0. 35% | 0. 94% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5500 | 0. 00% | -0. 36% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 4856 | -0.91% | 1.42% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5000 | 0. 00% | -0. 99% | | | SP2605 | 5214 | -0. 50% | 1. 32% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4250 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | ...

| | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.32 | 0.56 | DR007 | 1.41 | -1.40 | | ਰੀ ਸੋਨ | GC001 | 1.22 | -15.00 | GC007 | 1.46 | -2.00 | | T | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | -0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 力 | 1年期国债 | 1.40 | -0.02 | 5年期国债 | 1.59 | -0.82 | | = | 10年期国债 | 1.82 | -1.85 | 10年期美债 | 4.02 | 3.00 | 回顾:上周央行公开市场开展了6331亿元逆回购操作、6000亿元182天期 买断式逆回购操作。当周有10210亿元逆回购到期、8000亿元91天期买断 式逆回购到期、1500亿元国库现金定存到期,因此上周实现净回笼（含 国库现金)6979亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】31号 ITGE 照销货 LPG数据日报 20000 3500 24/12 25/08 25/02 25/04 25/06 10-28 12-27 03-02 05-01 01-01 06-30 08-29 民用液化气商品量季节性分析(万吨) PDH开工率零节性分析 (%) =2024年度 -2025年度 == -- 2024年度 =2025年度 == == == == 30 > 20 01-01 03-02 10-28 12-27 03-02 10-28 05-01 06-30 08-29 01-01 05-01 06-30 08-29 12-27 LPG华东基差(元/吨) PG月间价差走势 ===- 2022年度 == 2024年度 2025年度 == PG2511-PG2512 PG2512-PG2601 PG2512-PG2602 ---- PG2511-PG2601 1500 1000 500 -500 -1000 04/06 06/05 00 /05 数据来源:Wind、钢联教程库 务外况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的报何意见或趋议提否符合其特定状况，据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view can be extracted from the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Historical Volatility - For furnace aluminum, the main price is 20975, and the price of PVC increases by 0.48%. The historical volatilities HV20, HV40, HV60, and HV120 are 10.75%, 10%, 8%, and 18.26% respectively [5]. - For Shanghai zinc, the main price is 21940, and the price of plastic decreases by 0.25%. The historical volatilities are 14.99%, 0.30%, 16.54%, and 12% respectively [5]. - For other commodities such as copper, methanol, gold, etc., similar historical volatility and price change data are provided [5]. Implied Volatility - For polycrystalline silicon, the main flat - value IV is 39% and 69% [9]. - For propylene, the main flat - value IV is 17% and 5% [9]. - Similar implied volatility data are given for other commodities like urea, short - fiber, etc. [9]. Main Flat - Value IV Quantile No detailed data summary is provided in the given content for this part. Historical Trends - For industrial silicon and iron ore, historical trends of main closing price, main flat - value implied volatility, and HV60 are presented from 2024 - 10 to 2025 - 08 [12]. - Similar historical trend data are also shown for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, crude oil, and rubber [12].