1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

EHTV 250 F resed Volatility Surfa Omic In MalaOri 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 国产期货研究 金融行 - 品中心 李 资咨询号: Z0000116 从业资格号: F0251925 2026/2/11 行情回顾 成交额(亿元) 收盘价 成交量(亿) 指数 涨跌幅 (8) 3087. 405 1220. 16 0. 18 38. 16 上证50 沪深300 187. 00 4724. 2956 0. 11 4503. 40 中证1000 8250. 3001 0. 20 4750. 51 291. 92 中金所股指期权成交情况 认洁期权 期权持仓量 认沽期权 期权成交量 认购期权 认购期权 持仓量 日成交量 指数 成交量 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 上证50 2. 45 1. 50 0. 95 0. 63 8. 43 5.14 3. 29 0. 64 沪深300 6. 70 2. 53 22. 35 8.87 4. 17 0. 61 13. 48 0. 66 中证1000 21. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, before the Spring Festival, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly to accumulate strength for further upward movement, and long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand is still weak, market participation has declined, and copper, aluminum, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to decline and then stabilize, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Market sentiment has improved. Indonesia's ESDM has issued a nickel ore RKAB quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons in 2026, and the approval of nickel ore quotas has been slow recently, increasing concerns about future nickel ore supply. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to be strong, but are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1]. - The raw material end of stainless steel still has support, and with the improvement of macro - sentiment, stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term and hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - In the short - term, macro - negative factors have been exhausted, but the volatility of tin prices is still large. In the short - term, investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The weak US dollar index, uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and China's continuous gold purchases for 15 months support precious metal prices. However, before the Spring Festival, market funds may be cautious, and precious metals are expected to stabilize and oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The weak US dollar index supports platinum and palladium prices, but the US Trade Representative's discussion of an agreement on critical minerals may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium prices, so they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [1]. - In the cement industry, production has increased in the Northwest and decreased in the Southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has declined [1]. - In the new energy vehicle industry, it is the off - season, but energy storage demand is strong, and there is a rush to export batteries. The price has risen significantly and there is a need for a correction [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the expectation is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to exit long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - For iron ore, there is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this level [1]. - For silicon iron and glass, the reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Energy consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, and its medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, during the off - season of the black industry, before the Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment is almost over. The market pays more attention to capital sentiment. It is recommended to cash in on the spot when the market rises and establish cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. - For palm oil, the MPOB monthly report data has a positive expected difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [1]. - For soybean oil, the cost is supported by the strong US soybean market. There is no abnormal weather in South America, and it is recommended to pay more attention to Sino - US soybean trade trends. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For rapeseed oil, after the anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15% after March, and the supply contradiction is expected to ease [1]. - For cotton, there is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term [1]. - For corn, before the Spring Festival, trading is coming to an end, and the price fluctuation is limited. After the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, policy - grain release, import arrivals, and new - season wheat growth. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - For soybeans, the increase in US soybean export expectations boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazilian discounts partially offsets the impact. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent selling pressure of Brazilian discounts and consider going long on M2609 at a low level [1]. - For pulp, there are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after inventory replenishment. It is recommended to wait and see when the commodity sentiment fluctuates significantly [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the external quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the spot price is gradually stabilizing, demand is supported, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cool down, and the commodity market sentiment has turned bearish. In the short - term, it follows crude oil [1]. - For asphalt, the supply of raw material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, the profit is high, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction may be falsified [1]. - For natural rubber, the raw material cost has strong support, the market sentiment has turned bearish, the downstream demand before the Spring Festival has weakened, and the basis has widened to a high level [1]. - For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene has strong support, private cis - butadiene rubber plants may reduce production due to losses, but the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - For PTA, the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed, PX maintains fundamental resilience, the downstream PTA industry is strong, and the domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high with no planned production cuts during the Spring Festival and no new capacity throughout the year [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the production profit of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the price is waiting at a low level [1]. - For pure benzene, the inventory is high and the import demand is weak. The Asia - US spread is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising costs [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand has limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support [1]. - For methanol, it is affected by the situation in Iran, with expected import reduction, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude restarted on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Inland transportation costs have risen due to cold air, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [2]. - For crude oil, it oscillates strongly, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment has ended, with flat demand during the holiday [2]. - For PVC, there is less global production in 2026, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the rush to export has slowed down [2]. - For liquid chlorine, the macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is trading fundamentals again, the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is at a low level, the price of liquid chlorine has weakened, and the spot price has risen slightly [2]. - For LPG, the CP price in February has risen, the purchase in March is still relatively tight, the short - term risk premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has declined, the driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, the market expectation is weakening, the basis is expected to widen, the domestic PDH operating rate has declined, the profit is expected to recover seasonally, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. The ports are continuously reducing inventory, but the domestic civil gas is sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [2]. - For container shipping, the pre - festival freight rate has peaked and declined, airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights, and airlines expect to stop the price decline and raise prices strongly after the off - season in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term strong oscillation before the Spring Festival, long - term long positions held [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, attention on Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper, aluminum, alumina: Oscillation due to weak downstream demand and increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Zinc: Cost center stabilizes, price expected to decline and then stabilize, wait - and - see recommended [1]. - Nickel: Short - term strong due to supply concerns and improved macro - sentiment, long - term suppression from high inventory [1]. - Stainless steel: Raw material support and improved macro - sentiment, short - term long at low prices, light positions during holiday [1]. - Tin: High short - term volatility, focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - Precious metals: Supported by various factors, but cautious market funds before Spring Festival, short - term stable oscillation [1]. - Platinum and palladium: Supported by weak US dollar, but agreement discussion may cause fluctuations, short - term wide - range fluctuation [1]. New energy and related industries - Polysilicon and organic silicon: December production decline [1]. - New energy vehicles: Off - season, but strong energy storage demand and battery export rush, price correction needed [1]. Building materials - Cement: Production increase in Northwest and decrease in Southwest [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: Strong expectation but weak spot, insufficient upward momentum, exit long positions and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron ore: Upward pressure, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Silicon iron and glass: Weak reality, strong expectation, supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand relaxation, price under pressure [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Off - season, focus on capital sentiment, cash in on spot when rising and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: MPOB report has positive difference, but subsequent fundamentals have pressure, wait - and - see before Spring Festival [1]. - Soybean oil: Cost supported by US soybeans, no abnormal South American weather, short - term oscillation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Anti - dumping ruling, supply contradiction expected to ease [1]. - Cotton: Short - term support but no driving force, attention on future policies and market conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, domestic new - crop supply increase, short - seller consensus, cost support if price falls, lack of short - term driving force [1]. - Corn: Pre - festival trading end, post - festival attention on selling pressure, policies, and wheat growth, range oscillation [1]. - Soybeans: US export boost, Brazilian discount impact, domestic market weaker, consider long on M2609 at low level [1]. Forest products - Pulp: Supply disturbances, demand weakens after inventory replenishment, wait - and - see during significant commodity sentiment fluctuations [1]. - Logs: Spot price rise, expected decline in February arrivals and rise in external quotation, upward driving force for futures [1]. Livestock - Live pigs: Spot price stabilizing, demand support, production capacity not fully released [1]. Energy and chemicals - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspension, Middle East geopolitical cooling, short - term follows crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Sufficient raw material supply, high profit, demand falsification possibility [1]. - Natural rubber: Cost support, bearish market sentiment, weak pre - festival downstream demand, widened basis [1]. - BR rubber: Butadiene cost support, plant production reduction expectation, high inventory risk, short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term upward expectation [1]. - PTA: PX spread narrowing, PX resilience, strong downstream industry, high production and no new capacity [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Naphtha cracking profit decline, Korean producers maintain operating rate, low - price waiting [1]. - Pure benzene: High inventory, weak import demand, Asia - US spread not enough for arbitrage, styrene recovery [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment easing, limited domestic upside, anti - involution and cost support [1]. - Methanol: Affected by Iran, import reduction expected, downstream negative feedback, device changes, Iran situation and inland inventory - clearing [2]. - Crude oil: Strong oscillation, price in reasonable range, pre - festival inventory replenishment end, flat holiday demand [2]. - PVC: Future optimism with capacity elimination, current poor fundamentals, slowed export rush [2]. - Liquid chlorine: Macro - sentiment subsides, trading fundamentals, weak fundamentals, low price, liquid chlorine weakening, spot rise [2]. - LPG: Rising CP price, tight March purchase, declining risk premium, weakening expectation, basis widening, bearish demand, port inventory reduction and domestic gas sufficiency [2]. Shipping - Container shipping: Pre - festival freight rate decline, cautious airline resumption, expected post - off - season price increase [2].

| | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 業 | 现值 | 1267 | 1122 | 1801 | 1155 | 2530 | 1403 | | | 前値 | 1317 | 1176 | 1867 | 1101 | 2605 | 1418 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.81% | -4.55% | -3.54% | 4.90% | -2.88% | -1.06% | | 발 | | | | | | | | | JE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1657 | 2291 | | | | | | | 前值 | 1792 | 2424 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | -7.53% | -5.49% | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 ...

2026/2/11 | 指标 | | 2月10日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | == | ===== 17/18 | == | | ----- 19/20 | == | | | 大连 | 446 | -5 | 2500 | == | == | == | | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | 日照 | 316 | -5 | 2000 1000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | 426 | -5 | 1500 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 326 | -25 | -500 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | | 东莞 | 326 | -5 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction, and there are still risks in crude oil prices due to the geopolitical risks in Iran [2]. - The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plans for the Spring Festival. There are no new PTA production capacities throughout the year, and existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX [2]. - The PX supply side remains tight. The South Korean TDP plant has increased its load, and a PX plant in the Middle East is scheduled to shut down before February, resulting in limited global effective capacity release [2]. - The PX - mixed xylene spread remains around $150. Although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335 per ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA [2]. - Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Indicators Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5115 to 5140, a change of 25; PTA closing price rose from 5192 to 5230, an increase of 38 [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 3635 to 3623, a change of - 12; MEG closing price dropped from 3739 to 3733, a decrease of 6 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6575 to 6585, a change of 10 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 41 to 52, an increase of 11 [2]. - 3 - 4 spread increased from - 80 to - 74, a change of 6 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical spread increased from 1275 to 1285, a change of 10 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6233 to 6270, a change of 37; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price rose from 6233 to 6270, an increase of 37; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6333 to 6370, a change of 37 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 835 to 840, a change of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 642 to 662, an increase of 20 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4125 to 4115, a change of - 10 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1533 to 1496, a change of - 37 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15630 to 15710, an increase of 80 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (silicon - containing) price remained unchanged at 7290; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 499 to 482, a change of - 17 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures rose 44 to 6626. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories mainly negotiated prices, and trader prices increased slightly. Downstream demand was weak, and on - site transactions were scarce [2]. - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6250 - 6350 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures prices were running warmly. The supply side's quotations were stable with a slight increase, the market's spot supply was tight, and downstream end - user demand only maintained just - in - time replenishment. The market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 38.00% to 31.00%, a change of - 7.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3].

2 2019 | 2023-10 | 2024-10 | 0155707 | 25 | ETF-SPDR ETF-SLV RETF-SLV RETE | 2025-02 2025-05 | 2026-02 | 2025-08 | 2025-11 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | -SHFE金银比价 | 一美元指数· | -- NYMEX轻质原油 | 一伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （1）行情回顾：2月10日，沪金期货主力合约收涨0.48%至1121.22元/克，沪银期货主力收涨1.97%至20284元/千克。 (2) 影响因素分析: 美国12月零售销售数据环比特平，低于预期，美元指数继续走弱，加上中东地缘局势不确定性仍旧较高等，贵金属价格延期仓稳回升态势. ffilfølsin 此外，中国央行连续第1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. The PTA industry remains strong, with expected record - high production in January 2024 in China, no Spring Festival production cut plans, and no new capacity throughout the year. PX supply is still tight, and the domestic PTA high - operation rate and the limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts support the market [3]. - MEG: After a long - term slump overseas, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction due to production line conversion provides room for price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price increased from 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9, 2026, to 476.1 yuan/barrel on February 10, 2026, a rise of 11.9 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 48.48 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0275 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 900 to 909, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 297 to 311 [3]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 5192 yuan/ton to 5230 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5115 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 2.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 4.8 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 increased by 2004 [3]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 3739 yuan/ton to 3733 yuan/ton, and MEG - naphtha remained unchanged. The MEG内盘 decreased from 3635 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 3 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash - flow of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased to varying degrees [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.92%, PTA start - up rate remained at 76.73%, MEG start - up rate increased from 61.67% to 62.36%, and polyester load decreased from 77.49% to 77.26% [3]. 3.3 Production and Sales Situation - The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 12% to 13%, the short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 41% to 39%, and the polyester chip production and sales rate increased from 22% to 23% [3]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the specific restart time is undetermined [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market is closed during the holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The market's expectation for the post - holiday period is not ideal. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is weak. Policy and cost factors are favorable. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday due to many uncertainties [3] - For coking coal and coke, the market continues to weaken. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] - For iron ore, the restocking is basically over, and the price will fluctuate before the holiday. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market is closed during the approaching holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly, indicating a not - so - optimistic market expectation for the post - holiday period. The black market is less affected by the cooling of the commodity market. Traders are not willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Before the holiday, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The downstream terminal demand is seasonally weak, and the direct demand is weak and stable. The alloy factory's profit is under pressure, and the production and start - up rate have decreased compared with the same period last year. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. Policy and cost factors are favorable, such as the increase in manganese ore prices and electricity price disturbances. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market trading is cold during the approaching holiday. The futures market of the black sector fluctuates weakly. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. The downstream restocking is near the end. There is news about Indonesian production cuts, but the probability of substantial cuts is low, and it provides an opportunity for spot - futures positive spreads. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's restocking is basically over, and the restocking strength is not as strong as expected. The price will fluctuate before the holiday. After the holiday, the Australian weather may affect the supply rhythm, and the price impact is more likely to be a rebound followed by a better short - selling point. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a 9.28 bp increase, DR007 at 1.56 with a 1.86 bp increase, GC001 at 1.62 with a 5.00 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.68 with a 2.00 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.31, 5 - year treasury at 1.53 (down 0.50 bp), 10 - year treasury at 1.80 (down 0.40 bp), and 10 - year US treasury at 4.22 [3] - The central bank conducted 3114 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net daily investment of 2059 billion yuan after 1055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [3] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 0.11% to 4724.3, the SSE 50 rose 0.18% to 3087.4, the CSI 500 fell 0.06% to 8306.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.2% to 8250.3 [4] - The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 21249 billion yuan, a decrease of 1455 billion yuan from the previous day [4] - The sectors of culture and media, games, shipbuilding, education, and communication services led the gains, while precious metals, photovoltaic equipment, jewelry, energy metals, and department stores led the losses [4] - IF volume was 65253 (down 27.9), IF open interest was 282444 (down 2.1); IH volume was 29479 (down 28.7), IH open interest was 101061 (down 2.3); IC volume was 94650 (down 30.8), IC open interest was 296183 (down 3.5); IM volume was 133170 (down 28.7), IM open interest was 378633 (down 2.7) [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The stock index showed a narrow - range oscillation. The launch of ByteDance's AI video - generation model Seedance 2.0 boosted the corresponding AI application sector [5] - In the short term, the stock index rebounded after continuous adjustments and is now in an oscillation phase. The pre - holiday market is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern [5] - Although domestic policies support the stock index and overseas suppression factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has declined, and the sector rotation has accelerated. The daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, making it more difficult for the stock index to make a strong upward attack before the holiday [5] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were - 3.02%, 0.06%, 2.04%, and 3.07% respectively [6] - IH premium/discount rates were - 6.38%, - 1.93%, - 0.20%, and 1.67% respectively [6] - IC premium/discount rates were - 1.12%, 1.81%, 3.99%, and 4.84% respectively [6] - IM premium/discount rates were - 1.90% (not clear in the text), 2.48%, 6.42%, and 7.33% respectively [6]