投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 零500cm P THE 1577 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 2025/10/20 | 4236. 55 | | 51. 50 | 4249. 50 | 50. 38 | 970. 32 | 11742.00 | 968. 28 | 11720.00 | | (本表数 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. However, its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. The polyester downstream load is high, but there are concerns about textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period due to trade wars. PTA's upward movement is restricted by falling crude oil prices [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is low, and the expected import volume from overseas markets is decreasing. However, domestic device production is putting pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and the downward movement of the crude oil fundamentals, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 432.6 yuan/barrel to 435.8 yuan/barrel, PTA - SC decreased from 1258.3 yuan/ton to 1217.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.4002 to 1.3843. The PTA spot price fell from 4340 yuan/ton to 4315 yuan/ton, and the main - contract futures price decreased from 4402 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee dropped from 136.0 yuan/ton to 119.6 yuan/ton, and the on - screen processing fee decreased from 208.0 yuan/ton to 188.6 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main - contract futures price remained at 4003 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread changed from - 102.97 yuan/ton to - 102.16 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4115 yuan/ton to 4100 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis decreased from 74 to 70 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.95%, the MEG start - up rate decreased from 66.50% to 65.39%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F decreased by 75 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The POY cash flow decreased from 126 to 77, the FDY cash flow increased from - 229 to - 208, and the DTY cash flow increased from 226 to 227. The filament sales rate decreased from 55% to 42% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6370 yuan/ton to 6355 yuan/ton. The staple - fiber cash flow increased from 381 to 392, and the staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 81% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased from 5485 yuan/ton to 5475 yuan/ton. The chip cash flow increased from 46 to 62, and the chip sales rate decreased from 67% to 51% [2]. Device Maintenance An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

| 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/10/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/10/20 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5810 | 0 | 0 | 382 | -16 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5740 | -20 | -100 | 412 | -36 | | いで貰 | 云南 | 大理 | 5600 | -15 | -140 | 312 | -31 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 5870 | -10 | 100 | 342 | -26 | | 数盘 | | SR01 | 5428 | 16 | | | | | 据面 | | SRO5 | 5389 | 12 | SR01-05 | 39 | 4 | | दि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 143 | 0. 0055 | ice原 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term stock index is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations, US government shutdown, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, showing different trends [1]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to continued fermentation of copper supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate, with alumina facing weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are supported by short - term export windows, while nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand conditions [1]. - Tin prices have long - term opportunities for bottom - fishing due to supply risks and demand support [1]. - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. - Black metal prices are generally volatile, with supply - demand contradictions and seasonal impacts [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and demand seasons [1]. - Shipping freight rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong and volatile, beware of tariff policy fluctuations, focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1]. - Gold: High - level decline due to Sino - US trade easing, but expected to be volatile due to factors such as US government shutdown and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: High - level decline, short - term short - side volatile, pay attention to physical tightness in London [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to remain strong due to supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum: Fundamentals are mixed, price expected to fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, pay attention to cost support [1]. - Zinc: Supported by short - term export windows, but subsequent disturbances still exist [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated volatility, high - inventory suppression exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term volatility, pay attention to short - term trading opportunities [1]. - Tin: Long - term bottom - fishing opportunities due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Chemical products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production resumes, polycrystalline silicon production increases in October, organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Supply increases and demand decreases in October, policy impact fades [1]. Black metals - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil): Industry drivers are unclear, valuation is low, not recommended for directional trading [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Others (such as coking coal, coke, glass, soda ash): Generally volatile, facing supply - demand contradictions and price pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Vegetable oils (such as palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels, with different trading suggestions [1]. - Grains and oilseeds (such as corn, soybean meal): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand, and weather, with corresponding outlooks [1]. - Others (such as cotton, sugar, pulp, etc.): Different price trends and trading strategies based on their own fundamentals [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Bearish due to OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical cooling, demand off - season, and US tariff threats [1]. - Other energy - related products (such as LPG, etc.): Affected by various factors and showing different price trends [1]. - Chemical products (such as ethylene glycol, styrene, etc.): Affected by supply - demand, inventory, and production factors [1]. Others - Shipping: Container shipping rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. - Livestock: Pig prices are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalance [1].

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 | 01 | 02 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 焦煤焦炭 | | | | 关 注 下 周 国 内 大 会 ， 可 能 性 的 政 策 预 期 好 转 交 易 | 关 注 重 大 会 议 是 否 对 " | 反 内 卷 " | 有新提法 | 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 下 周 重 要 会 议 召 开 ， 关 注 政 策 动 向 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 0 70 140 210 280 350 420 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 预期转为现实，关注现货卖压 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:预期转为现实，关注现货卖压 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）新粮集中上市，渠道上量高位，关注本周华北转晴后卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预 期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年8月，全国工业饲料产量2936万吨，环比增长3.7%，同比增长3.8%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为32.9%； （2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 盘面估值偏低，原木预计偏强运行 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木期货先跌后涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月，新西兰预计发运至中日韩印的原木数量为176.6万方，较上月增加10.0万方，月环比增加6.00%；2025年9月，新西兰预计发 | 供给 | 偏空 | 运至中日韩印的船只数量为46条，较上月增加2条，月环比增加4.55%。 | | 据木联数据统计，10月6日-10月12日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为5.73万方，较上周减少12.65%;由于中美贸易战原因，原木外 | 需求 | 中性 | | | 盘报价存在上涨预期。 | | | | | 据木联数据统计，截至10月10 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：加沙和谈中美关系再度恶化，E C呈现近强远弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货运价 | 利多 | 10月下旬整体喊涨在1800-2000（最终落地在1500-1800），11月涨价函目前在2500左右。 | | | | 【1】美国副总统 J.D. 范斯（JD Vance） 预计将在下周二访问以色列，以推动特朗普政府主导的加沙战争停火协议落实。虽然第二阶段的执行工作已经启 动，但关于"哈马斯去武装化"和"加沙非军事化"这两大核心问题仍存在诸多不确定性。【2】埃及称因胡塞武装袭扰红海航运损失超90亿美元"我们正 | | | 利空 | 在为此付出沉重代价。"——埃及外长阿卜杜拉提（Badr Abdelatty）。【3】《华尔街日报》报道称 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨2.6万吨至83万吨;（2）中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为81.4%， 较上周环比-2.6%。分区域来看，西北、华北、华东、华南、东北负荷均有下滑，其中西北-2.6%至89.2%；华北-1.5%至75.2%，华东-2.9%至80.7%，东北 | | | | 22.7%至73.0%，其中山东-2.0%至83.1%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 衰退交易成本崩塌，纯苯苯乙烯下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：海外衰退交易之下，苯乙烯跟随成本下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差约为252美元，非一体化的生产利润依然是负的。 | | | | 港口小幅去化，但市场的预期较差。截至2025年10月13日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：9.0万吨，较上期库存9.1万吨去库0.1万吨，环比下降1.10%； | | 需求 | 偏空 | 较去年同期库存7.3万吨上升1.7万吨，同比上升23.29%。持续累库，供给端随着检修结束，供给端明显增加，裕龙石化装置即将投产。海外由于衍生品的低 开工率，需求仍在下降。 | ...