投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节前成交转弱，BR震荡下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-2-9 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节前成交转弱，B R震荡下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 11 65 2 61% 73 12 3 17 3 25% 78 86 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 | | | | （1）半钢胎 ...

注:因收器时间不一致,铂、肥库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 2月6日，铂、密价格整体下跌：PT2606合约收跌7.81%至50元/克:PD2606合约收跌6.12%至410.5元/克。宏观层面，美元指数下 晚,科技股抛压暂缓，美股三大指数。比特币、金银全线反弹,铂把亦整体走眠。基本面上,西方国家关于关键矿产的计划价会从长 小结 期角度支持铭把价格。综上、预计短期内的、纽价格或宽幅波动格局。中长期来看，铭把保需前景存在差异，好快需敏口仍存、把则 趋于供应宽松,故策略上建议以单边递低配置铂为主,或继续关注【多铂空兜】套利策略。（仅供参考） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 2026/2/9 | | | | 白素姚 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标名称 现货:铂(99.95%) | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌幅 | 800 | 主要图表 -期货收益价(活跃合约):铂 | -- 期货收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG exhibits a game between sentiment and fundamentals, with PG oscillating before the holiday. In the short - term, the internal and external market logics are differentiated, and the PG price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical situations and opportunistically short at high levels [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Can - Chemical Product Closing Price Monitoring - The report presents the closing prices, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various can - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current value of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is 6,959 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.13%, a monthly decrease of 0.77%, and an annual decrease of 2.95%. The current value of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly decrease of 0.75%, a monthly increase of 0.88%, and an annual decrease of 2.34% [3]. 3.2. LPG: Game between Sentiment and Fundamentals, PG Oscillates before the Holiday - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 548,800 tons. The civil gas commodity volume was 225,400 tons (-2.76%), the industrial gas was 191,700 tons (0.31%), and the ether - after carbon four was 179,800 tons (0.94%). The LPG arrival volume last week was 510,000 tons (2.63%). Domestic supply increased this week, but it is expected to decline next week [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. The winter heating demand is maintained, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving. However, the PDH device load will gradually decrease before the Spring Festival, and the propane chemical demand is expected to decline. The MTBE profit is in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending oil demand is slowing down, which restrains the civil gas price [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the LPG refinery inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the port inventory showed a trend of accumulating. Refineries successfully reduced inventory, while some ports withheld goods for sale [4]. - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China, South China, and Shandong are 234.80 yuan/ton, 644.80 yuan/ton, and 261.80 yuan/ton respectively. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by 6,902 lots [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 62.66%, 58.15%, and 36.54% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are -374 yuan/ton, 142 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 25 (0.41%), and the PG primary - secondary monthly spread is -303 yuan/ton (3.06%). The oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. - **Other Factors**: It is bullish. The US EIA oil and gas inventory continued to decline last week. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine regions are intensifying. The natural gas price has skyrocketed due to the cold wave, and the geopolitical situation has caused market panic [4]. 3.3. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures oscillated and declined, with a price fluctuation range of 4,110 - 4,360 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices oscillated sharply and trended downward, and international LPG prices oscillated. Domestic supply and demand both decreased, and the spread between ether - after carbon four and civil gas was inverted [6]. 3.4. LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The current values of PG01 - PG12 contracts are between 4,082 - 4,516 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, most contracts decreased, and compared with last month, most contracts increased [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values and changes of various monthly spreads are presented. For example, the PG01 - PG02 spread is -134 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 47.25% and a monthly decrease of 494.12% [11]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The current values and changes of various cross - month spreads are also presented. For example, the PG01 - PG03 spread is -49 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 800.00% and a monthly decrease of 141.18% [11]. 3.5. Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many refineries under Sinopec, PetroChina, Sinochem, and CNOOC have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and capacities [13]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China also have maintenance plans, and some of the end times are undetermined [13]. 3.6. International Spot Price - The report shows the price trends of CP propane, CP butane, MB propane, MB butane, FEI propane, and FEI butane, as well as the spreads between them [16][27][30]. 3.7. Other Related Data - The report also presents data on LPG consumption, production, import and export, port inventory, refinery inventory, and deep - processing profits, etc., and shows their trends over time [135][150][174][195].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在71.24万吨，较上周增加0.91%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率85.91%，较上周期增加了0.56个百分点。本周期 装置情况来看，周内扬子石化、大庆石化、等企业存在新增检修计划，新增检修装置虽有增加，不过多于周后期检修，存量检修装置陆续重启，因此产能 | | | | 利用率环比上周增加。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.9%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.0%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.8%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平 ...

2 200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/6 | 4840. 01 | 72. 06 | 4859. 70 | 71.77 | 1092. 72 | | 17944. 00 | 1086. 04 | 17890.00 | | (本表数 | | | ...

| | | | | | | | | Hart Ave EN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/09 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | | 6000 | | | 400 | | | (元/吨) | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity, the lithium carbonate price has experienced a huge shock. In the short term, the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. The focus is on the post - holiday situation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 134,500, down 9,500; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 131,000, down 9,500 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 1,880, down 10; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 2,875, down 125; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 4,375, down 175; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 13,000, down 650; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 13,900, down 900 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 49,770, down 2,305; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 199,000, down 2,500; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 173,500, down 3,000; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 175,500, down 3,000 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,580, down 9,640; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 780, down 500; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,200, down 920 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 105,463, down 2,019; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 18,356, down 647; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 43,657, up 3,058; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,450, down 4,430; the registered warrants (daily, tons) is 33,777, down 10 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 138,350, and the profit is - 5,715; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 136,032, and the profit is - 6,691 [3] Policy and Market News - Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a preferential tariff rate of 6.1% [3] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export refund for battery products will be cancelled [3]

Group 1: Interest Rate and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.28 with a -4.41bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.08bp change, GC001 at 1.29 with a -13.50bp change, GC007 at 1.60 with a 2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a -0.05bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.44bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.56 with a -0.69bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a -0.41bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.22 with a 1.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 4055 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week, with 3000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday and Friday respectively [4] - This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 750 billion, 1055 billion, 750 billion, 1185 billion, and 315 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts: CSI 300 closed at 4644 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4640 with a -%0.7 change; SSE 50 at 3038 with a -0.69% change, IH current month at 3037 with a -%0.9 change; CSI 500 at 8146 with no change and IC current month at 814 with a -0.%1 change; CSI 1000 at 8052 with a -0.20% change, IM current month at at 8027 with a -0.6% change [6] - The trading volume and open interest changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 118040 with a 1.8% change, IF open interest was at 29 with a -%1. change; IH trading volume was 55 with a 2. change, IH open interest was at 109 with a 0. change; IC trading volume was 19 with no change, IC open interest was at 31 with a -%2. change; IM trading volume was 24 with a 4. change, IM open interest was at 40 with a 1. change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.6, SSE 50 fell 0.93% to 3037.9, CSI 500 fell 2.68% to 8146.4, and CSI 1000 fell 2.46% to 8051.6. A - share trading volume shrank significantly due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. The daily trading volumes last week were 26066 billion, 25656 billion, 25033 billion, 21943 billion, and 21635 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 6565.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, food and beverage (4.3%), power equipment (2.2%), comprehensive (2%), transportation (1.9%), and banking (1.7%) led the gains last week, while non - ferrous metals (-8.5%), communication (-6.9%), electronics (-5.2%), steel (-3.3%), and computer (-3.3%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - During the US stock earnings season, the performance of the AI industry chain is under test, and US stock volatility has increased. Chip giants like NVIDIA and AMD have seen continuous stock price adjustments, and internet giants like Google and Amazon have raised market concerns due to poor profit efficiency and under - expected performance [7] - Last week, the domestic news was relatively calm, the selling pace of broad - based ETFs slowed down, indicating a significant weakening of regulatory control. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the total A - share trading volume narrowed significantly to around 2.1 billion yuan. Overseas, the increased volatility of non - ferrous metals and US technology stocks has had a significant impact on domestic non - ferrous and technology sectors [7] - In the short term, after a volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations to accumulate strength for further upward movement. In the long run, in the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the process of bottom - building, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end. The strategy is that stock index pullbacks may be opportunities to enter long positions [7] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-09 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌抛售风险缓解，金银或企稳震荡 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格延续剧烈波动，白银遭遇二次抛售。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）在经历 外盘1月30日的暴跌后，上周一沪金触及跌停，沪银周一、周二连续两日跌停；后在杠杆显 著去化后，市场情绪短期修复，金银略有反弹。但由于美元走强和美国科技股持续遭到抛 售，叠加比特币等加密货币暴跌，市场流动性紧缩风险卷土重来，并再度蔓延至贵金属市 场，金银上周四、周五双双遭到二次抛售，尤其是白银，伴随着CME第6次提保，伦敦现货 白银上周五早盘暴跌至64美元/盎司附近，再创阶段性新低并抹去年内涨幅。（2）直至上 周五，美伊谈判不确定性扰动市场，加上市场流动性恢复，科技股抛压暂缓、美股三大指 数和比特币集体上涨，市场流动性恢复，金银逐步企稳回升。同时，美国2月消费者信心意 外上升至5 ...