投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/15 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/14 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 513.9 | 527.5 | 13. 60 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA现货价格+20至4735。7月主港交割报盘09升 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 965. 4 | 906. 6 | -58. 83 | 水15附近,递盘升水8附近成交,8月主港交割报盘09 | | | | | | | 升水10-15。宏观改善商品情绪,日内绝对价格弱后修 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2585 | 1. 2365 | -0. 0220 | 复,买卖表现谨慎,现货基差弱整理,整体交易有限 | | PX | CFR中 ...

II CEREK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 人用于 NA BIR MAN MAN & B ? | 01 | .. | C | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 15 1 | Contri | No. of | | | | 航运衍生品数据日报 | | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 2025/7/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | '트롤 | 现值 | 1733 | 1314 | 2194 | 1266 | 4172 | 2099 | | Alle | 前值 | 1763 | 1343 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况适究法律 险,入市需谨慎。 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 2025/7/14 从业资格号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/11 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4735 | 4710 | (25.00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4374 | 4384 | 10. 00 | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4742 | 4700 | (42.00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌46至6388。现货市场:涤纶 短纤生产企业价格僵持,贸易商价格下滑,下游 | | MEG收盘价 | 4325 | 4305 | (20.00) | 采购意愿低,市场成交谨慎。1.56dtex*38mm半 | | | | | | 光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6500- | | 1.4 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木09合约偏空看待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-07-14 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木：原木期货价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 截止到6月29日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条，其中有30条去往中国大陆，8条去往中国台湾、韩国减载。6月出发的船只中，预计 6月到港的约为10条，7月到港的有28条。预计6月到货151万方。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 6月30日-7月6日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.69万方，较上周增加1.83%;其中，山东港口针叶原木日均出库量为3.9万方，较上周 增加9.86%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.15万方，较上周减少3.15%。 | | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 截至7月4日，国内针 ...

白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/7/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/7/11 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | 报糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6140 | 10 | 0 | 330 | 5 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5905 | 10 | -100 | 195 | 5 | | 〜ご覧 | 云南 | 大理 | 5800 | 10 | -140 | 130 | 5 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6135 | 0 | 100 | 225 | -5 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5810 | 5 | SR09-01 | 181 | 8 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5629 | -3 | | | | | हि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1945 | -0. 0020 | ice原糖主力 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing rapidly, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 2: Supply - related Summary - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. In May, the customs' soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival volume is expected to reach a high in June, July, and August, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Group 3: Demand - related Summary - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains high. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Group 4: Inventory - related Summary - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean meal inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6] Group 5: Data Presentation Basis Data - On July 10th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 14, down 7; in Tianjin, it was - 74, down 7; in other regions, the basis and its changes are also presented. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) in different regions also has corresponding data and changes. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 131, down 25 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong and the spread on the main futures contract are presented, along with their historical data and changes [5] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1311, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit on the futures, and the crushing profit on the futures are also given, along with relevant data on soybean inventory in Chinese ports, soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean crushing volume in major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

| | | | | 西新榨季制糖比,从而使得产糖量超预期。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 玉米 | | 短期政策性谷物投放预期和麦玉价差偏低对玉米市场带来利空影 响,关注投放量和投放价格,预期盘面偏震荡,建议观望。新季 | | | | | | 种植成本下移,远月C01建议关注逢高做空机会。 | | | | | | 国内累库压力下,基差和近月盘面表现预期承压。美豆供需平衡 | | | | 日期 | | 表存趋紧预期,若中美贸易政策不变,四季度豆粕存去库预期, | | | | | | 远月合约预期重心抬升;若达成协议,预期美豆上涨贴水下跌, | | | | | | 整体盘面下跌空间预期有限。 | | | | | | 纸浆外盘报价下降,发运量增加,国内需求清淡,目前估值偏 | | | | | | 代. 同时存在宏观利好。 | | | | 原不 | 看否 | 原木当前处于淡季,在外盘上涨的情况下供应下降有限,偏弱看 守。 | | | | | | 生猪存栏持续修复背景下,出栏体重持续增加。盘面存栏宽裕预 | | | | 丰信 | | 期较明显,贴水现货较多。短期现货受出 ...

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | 2025/7/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | E | 现值 | 1763 | 1343 | 2089 | 1557 | 4124 | 2101 | | Alle | 前值 | 1862 | 1369 | 2578 | 1619 | 4717 | 2030 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -5.27% | -1.92% | -18.97% | -3.83% | -12.57% | 3.50% | | ਵਿ | | SCFIS ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/11 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 519.7 | 522.5 | 2. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:华东市场PTA价格4746元/吨,跌2元/吨。聚酯工 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 941.3 | 944.9 | 3. 65 | 厂官宣继续减产,PTA需求利空继续发酵,日内PTA基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2492 | 1. 2489 | -0. 0004 | 差继续走弱,加之国际油价对PTA成本提振效果一般, 日内PTA现货微幅下跌。 | | | CFR中国PX | 850 | 852 | 2 | | | PX | | | | | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 264 | 254 | - ...