II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 특 | 现值 | 1115 | 1087 | 1460 | 862 | 2385 | 971 | | 示 | 前値 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 876 | 2557 | 1052 | | I | 涨跌幅 | -6.97% | -2.93% | -10.76% | -1.60% | -6.73% | -7.70% | | ក្រ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 ...

投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/10/16 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 上证50 1571. 06 63. 38 3001. 3489 1. 36 4606. 2879 6073. 26 沪深300 284. 77 1. 48 4037. 98 中证1000 7483. 449 1. 50 244. 85 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认沾期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 7.77 0. 77 5. 50 3. 52 0. 56 3. 39 1. 98 4. 38 0. 70 沪深300 11. 08 7. 80 20. 11 9. 51 18. 88 10. 61 0. 90 21. 76 中证1000 0. 94 29. 77 42. 12 20. 36 15. 04 14. 73 0. 98 中证1000PCR走势 沪深300P ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: - Stock Index: Bullish in the short term, with potential risks from tariff policy fluctuations [1] - Treasury Bonds: Neutral, with asset shortage and weak economy favorable but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks [1] - Precious Metals: Cautiously bullish on short - term rebound, but high - level volatility risks exist [1] - Copper: Bullish, supported by supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity [1] - Other Metals: Varying degrees of bullish, bearish, or neutral depending on specific market conditions [1] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - Most metals are rated as "Oscillating", with specific market factors influencing short - term trends [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, driven by seasonal demand and supply - demand imbalance [1] - **Black Metals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating" or "Weak", with unclear industrial drivers and high inventory in some cases [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm Oil: Mixed signals, with a wait - and - see approach for now [1] - Other products: Varying ratings based on supply - demand, policy, and international trade factors [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating", "Weak", or "Bearish", affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situation, and production status [1] - **Other**: - Shipping: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing [1] 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is generally affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Uncertainty persists, leading to a mix of bullish, bearish, and oscillating trends in various sectors [1] - **Specific Industry Drivers**: - In the non - ferrous metals industry, supply disruptions and policy changes are key factors [1] - In the black metals industry, unclear industrial drivers and high inventory are major concerns [1] - In the agricultural products industry, international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors play important roles [1] - In the energy and chemicals industry, geopolitical situation, production capacity, and demand seasonality are significant drivers [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term bullish, but beware of tariff policy fluctuations and pay attention to the potential Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks may limit upward movement [1] - **Precious Metals**: Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks boost the rebound, but high - level volatility risks remain [1] - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity support the upward trend [1] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own unique supply - demand and market factors influencing its short - term trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Most Metals**: Oscillating, affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish, driven by the approaching peak season for new energy vehicles, strong energy storage demand, and overall supply - demand imbalance [1] Black Metals - **Most Products**: Oscillating or weak, with unclear industrial drivers, high inventory, and supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Similar logic, with short - term price exploration not over, but chasing short positions is not advisable [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Mixed signals, with news of Indonesian export regulations favoring far - month contracts, while near - month contracts lack new drivers [1] - **Other Products**: Varying trends based on international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Most Products**: Oscillating, weak, or bearish, affected by factors such as OPEC production policies, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, etc.**: Each product has its own specific supply - demand and production - related factors influencing its price [1] Other - **Shipping**: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing as it enters the换月节奏 and approaches the full - cost line [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the soybean and soybean meal market, covering supply, demand, and inventory aspects [6][7] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - On October 15, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 13, down 15; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 83, down 35; in Rizhao it was 63, down 15; in Dongguan it was down 15; in Zhanjiang it was 53, down 15; in Fangcheng it was 33, down 15; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 127, down 15; MJ - 5 was 177, up 3 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 560; RM1 - 5 was 59 [5] Other Data - The US - dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0868; the盘面榨利 was - 215.00 yuan/ton; the 2025 import soybean盘面毛利 was 285 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Supply Analysis - Due to less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA may still be lowered; recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to harvest progress; affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress was 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate was 8.2%, much higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is undetermined [6][7] Group 4: Demand Analysis - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the breeding industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and downstream spot goods transactions are good [7] Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; this week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased and is currently at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Due to the repeated emotions in Sino - US trade negotiations and the poor profit of domestic ship - buying and crushing, the ship - buying progress is expected to be affected. In the short term, limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic inventory, the market is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, affected by rainfall in some areas of North China and Shandong, terminal demand is suppressed, cost - end support is limited, and the market is waiting and seeing. Traders in these two regions lowered prices, pushing down the average market price. In the East China Zhenjiang area, low - priced resources impact sales. The sales of the main refineries in the South China market are relatively stable, and the asphalt price remains unchanged. In the future, competition among asphalt brands in the northern market will intensify, and prices may be weak in the short - term due to low demand. In the South China market, demand may gradually release with better weather, supporting local prices. The main refineries in East China mainly ship by sea, and prices are expected to remain stable [5] 3. Key Information Summaries 3.1 Asphalt Price Data - **Spot prices**: In different regions, the current spot prices in East China are 3500 - 3720, in Northeast China not mentioned, in North China 3450, in South China 3400, in Northwest China 3980, and in Shandong 3460. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0 (- 30) in East China, (- 20) in North China, (- 10) in South China, 0 in Northwest China, and (- 10) in Shandong [1] - **Futures prices**: For asphalt futures contracts such as BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current values are 3470, 3154, 3250, 3184, and 3164 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0.00%, - 0.41%, - 1.22%, - 0.84%, and - 0.35% respectively [1] 3.2 International News - On October 13, Trump first said he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports to the US, but then said the threat might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. Market selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the negotiation results [1] - China's crude oil imports in September increased by 3.9% year - on - year to 1125 barrels per day, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level, supporting demand [2] - Trump said he might provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved. Medvedev warned that supplying these missiles "might harm everyone, especially Trump" [2] - On October 13, Hamas released the first batch of seven Israeli hostages, starting a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza conflict, which Trump helped to promote [2] - OPEC's daily crude oil production in September was 2844 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.4 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 24.8 million barrels. OPEC +'s daily production was 4305 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 63 million barrels [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to factors such as uncertain Sino - US trade tariffs, a loose supply - demand situation in the crude oil market, and reduced geopolitical risks. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for crude oil [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. With international oil prices likely to stay weak, fuel oil lacks strong upward drivers. A short - term wait - and - see strategy is also advised for fuel oil [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Supply - demand situation**: OPEC+ continues its production - increasing policy and reached a principle agreement to slightly increase production in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the global off - peak consumption being 1 - 3 million barrels per day lower than the peak. Geopolitical risks have decreased, which may lead to more crude oil flowing into the market [3]. - **Operation strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [3]. - **Futures盘面**: SC crude oil closed at 443.7 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan or 1.09%; WTI crude oil was at 58.59 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 62.28 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spread data**: SC - WTI spread decreased by 0.67 yuan/barrel to 3.91 yuan/barrel, a decline of 14.58%; SC - Brent spread decreased by 0.67 yuan/barrel to 0.22 yuan/barrel, a decline of 75.42% [3]. - **Spot price**: Oman crude oil was at 64.25 dollars/barrel, down 1.35 dollars or 2.06%; Russian ESPO was at 59.22 dollars/barrel, down 1.21 dollars or 2.00%; Brent Dtd was at 64.35 dollars/barrel, down 0.7 dollars or 1.08% [4]. - **Fundamental data**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.89% to 420,261 thousand barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.73% to 219,093 thousand barrels; US distillate inventory decreased by 1.63% to 121,559 thousand barrels; US production increased by 0.92% to 13,629 thousand barrels per day [4]. Fuel Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of the week of October 8, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 892,000 barrels to 23.669 million barrels. However, the market is still under pressure from demand and supply, and it is expected that the inventory in October will increase due to large supplies received in September [3]. - **Operation strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [3]. - **Futures盘面**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,683 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.63%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan or 1.50% [3]. - **Spread data**: FU - SC spread decreased by 31 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.88%; LU - SC spread increased by 44 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.63%; LU - FU spread decreased by 31 yuan/ton to 472 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.16% [4]. - **Spot price**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 365 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars or 3.18%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 435.5 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars or 1.58% [4]. - **Fundamental data**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% to 23,699 thousand barrels [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, there may be a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. - The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. After the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, the economic viability of independent energy storage has emerged, and the increasing tender volume indicates strong installation demand. However, the overall increase in supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,000 yuan/ton with no change; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 72,660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.08%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 72,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 72,960 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 72,940 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 72,800 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 828 yuan/ton with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1025 yuan/ton, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1725 yuan/ton, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6025 yuan/ton, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7125 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,530 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 155,800 yuan/ton with an increase of 1200 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 128,500 yuan/ton with an increase of 3000 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 132,650 yuan/ton with an increase of 1000 yuan/ton [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is 280 yuan/ton with a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 134,801 tons with a decrease of 2024 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 34,747 tons with an increase of 1255 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 59,765 tons with a decrease of 1128 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 40,290 tons with a decrease of 2150 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 33,076 tons with a decrease of 2104 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,330 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1394 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,178 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 5225 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market competition intensifies, and crude oil prices drop significantly. PX market transactions are scarce, and transaction prices plummet. Polyester downstream procurement halts. Asian naphtha cracking operates stably, with the spread between MX and naphtha narrowing from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropping to $132, continuing to support PX short - process profits. The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widens to $185, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. Domestic large - scale PTA plants undergo rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production declines. Domestic PTA basis weakens, and demand remains stable. Polyester's operating load rebounds to 91%. Due to weak crude oil, PTA performs poorly. Bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2]. 3. Key Data Summaries Price Changes - PTA spot price drops from 4380 to 4325, a decrease of 55 [2]. - MEG domestic price falls from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreases from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10 [2]. - Polyester bottle chip prices in the South China market drop, with the average price falling by 20 yuan/ton [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester short - fiber futures fall by 26 to 6050. In the spot market, prices of polyester short - fiber production plants are weakly negotiated, and trader prices decline. Downstream purchases as needed, and there are few transactions in the market [2]. - In the bottle - chip market, PTA and bottle - chip futures operate weakly. Supply - side offers are mainly lowered, downstream end - users replenish stocks with small orders for rigid demand, and the market negotiation atmosphere is cautious [2]. Operating Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) rises from 93.90% to 94.40%, an increase of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester short - fiber production and sales increase from 46.00% to 49.00%, an increase of 3.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remains unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) drops from 51.50% to 51.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5170 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2511 was 4856 with a daily increase of 0.21% and a weekly increase of 0.46%; SP2505 was 5240 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 1.08% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On October 15, 2025, softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.36%; Russian softwood pulp was 5000 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.99%; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily and weekly changes [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In October 2025, Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, down 2.78% from the previous period; Japanese - origin pulp was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, softwood pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% from July; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% from July. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Production**: From August 14 to September 25, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp fluctuated between 20.6 - 23.8 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp fluctuated between 20.8 - 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease [5] - **Demand**: From August 14 to September 25, 2025, the production of offset paper fluctuated between 19.5 - 21 tons, coated paper between 7.8 - 8.5 tons, tissue paper between 28.04 - 28.2 tons, and white cardboard between 31.5 - 35.9 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 15, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 144 with a quantile level of 0.866; the basis of Silver Star was 644 with a quantile level of 0.878 [5] - **Import Profit**: On October 15, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221 with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.555 [5] Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Arauco's softwood pulp outer - disk quotes decreased, and hardwood pulp quotes increased [5] - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the peak season on pulp demand has not been reflected [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, pulp inventory showed a decreasing trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market for steel is weak, with poor trading volume and prices. The futures valuation is neutral, and there is currently no driving force for a spot rebound. The strength of demand during the "Silver October" season is insufficient to support price increases, and there are concerns about a negative feedback loop when demand fails to match high production during the off - season [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are mainly oscillating due to insufficient driving factors. In the short - term, alloy plants have a high motivation to maintain production, but there are medium - term concerns. Terminal demand is weak, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - making and electric - furnace operations, which may impact the demand for these alloys [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke remains strong, while the futures market continues to oscillate. Although the furnace material data is good, the market is worried about the inventory pressure of steel, and the medium - term futures market may continue to seek a bottom. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile due to the strong spot performance and potential "anti - involution" policies [3]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The price increase during the holiday was mainly due to unsubstantiated rumors. The supply data has not been significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - making output throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel, which may force steel mills to cut production [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On October 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3090.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.83%), HC2605 at 3223.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3034.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2601 at 3212.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%) [1]. - **Spreads**: On October 15, the RB2601 - 2605 spread was - 56.00 yuan/ton (down 13.00 yuan), HC2601 - 2605 was - 11.00 yuan/ton (down 3.00 yuan), etc. The roll - screw spread was 178.00 yuan/ton (down 2.00 yuan), and the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 (down 0.01) [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On October 15, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 20.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3120.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), etc. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Materials**: On October 15, the price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 708.00 yuan/ton (down 15.00 yuan), and the price of Ganjimao Port coking coal was 1260.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or an oscillating trading strategy for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the 01 - contract roll - screw spread when it is below 150 for arbitrage. Wait for the opportunity to enter a positive - spread trade in the spot - futures market [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [3].