投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 委员干干 国贸期货研究院 黄向岚 农产品研究中心。 200 豆粕-菜粕 -5 485 盘面价差(主力) 200 01/24 02/24 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 03/26 升贴水-连续信 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) E西 95. 00 10 6.8790 125 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大豆瓣面毛利 (元/吨) 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 巴西1月 巴西2月 - 巴西3月 == ==== 巴西4月 ===== 巴西6月 ===== 巴西7月 ===== 巴西8月 ----- 巴西7月 ====·巴西8月 ==== 巴西5月 -- 巴西6月 -- 巴西5月 400 国际数据 100 -200 50 25/2/0 your and and and on the production of the program and not 2011 108/08/ Blog/ 6/09/0 -6/07/0 9/01/2 -6/06/ ali ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 11th, platinum and palladium prices generally showed a strong trend. In the short - term, prices are expected to continue a wide - range fluctuation pattern, and investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, due to different supply - demand prospects, it is recommended to allocate platinum unilaterally at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Domestic Prices (Yuan/gram) - Platinum futures主力收盘价 rose 2.54% to 551.15 yuan/gram, platinum spot (99.95%) rose 1.48% to 548 yuan/gram, and platinum basis (spot - futures) dropped 226.00% to - 3.15 yuan/gram [5] - Palladium futures主力收盘价 rose 2.34% to 439.1 yuan/gram, palladium spot (99.95%) rose 0.69% to 436.5 yuan/gram, and palladium basis (spot - futures) dropped 158.43% to - 2.6 yuan/gram [5] International Prices (15:00, US dollars) - London spot platinum rose 2.32% to 2119.1 US dollars, London spot palladium rose 1.61% to 1743.165 US dollars [5] - NYMEX platinum rose 2.44% to 2130 US dollars, NYMEX palladium rose 1.85% to 1758.5 US dollars [5] 15:00 Internal and External Price Differences (Yuan/gram, Tax - included) - The difference between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum rose 11.37% to 16.56 yuan/gram, and the difference between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum rose 7.90% to 13.81 yuan/gram [5] - The difference between Guangzhou palladium and London palladium dropped 83.12% to - 0.65 yuan/gram, and the difference between Guangzhou palladium and NYMEX palladium dropped 31.76% to - 4.52 yuan/gram [5] Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - The price ratio of platinum to palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 0.0024 to 1.2552, and the London spot platinum - to - palladium price ratio increased by 0.0084 to 1.2157 [5] Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory dropped 2.10% to 186,863 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 583,369 ounces [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum positions dropped 7.37% to 73,590, and non - commercial net long platinum positions dropped 5.86% to 13,106 [5] - NYMEX total palladium positions dropped 9.51% to 17,304, and non - commercial net long palladium positions rose 65.64% to 1,133 [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 论 逻辑: 从现货运价端来看,马士基已发布 3 月第一周欧洲航线运价,报价维持 2000 美元，维持 2 月水平,船司此前 提出的 3 月涨价预期并未兑现。马士基延续稳健务实的定价策略,行业内其余船司及航运联盟大概率初期同步跟进 该定价水平;若春节后货量复苏力度偏弱,现货运价存在进一步下调可能,整体运行节奏或与 2025年同期相仿。 本周春节前最后一个交易周,新挂牌合约成交活跃度偏低。后续需重点关注其他船司 3 月运价的跟进情况、节后货 量修复进度,以及前期港口拥堵所引发的运力被动空班变动。短期盘面维持区间震荡格局。 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/2/12 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures lack a clear trading logic before the holiday, and the spot market transactions are stagnant, so it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: SP2601 was 5428 with a daily increase of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 1.67%; SP2609 was 5280 with a daily increase of 0.57% and a weekly decrease of 1.75%; SP2605 was 5236 with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 1.65% [5]. - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.32%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.98%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4580 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.43% [5]. - **Outer - plate Quotes (US dollars/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 710, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no month - on - month change [5]. - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5802, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830, up 3.47% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, with no month - on - month change [5]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp was 77.8, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; hardwood pulp was 135.2, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November [5]. - **Pulp Shipment Volume to China (1000 tons) in November 2025**: It was 178, up 3.00% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp production volume from January 8 - February 5, 2026, fluctuated around 24 - 25.2; Chemimechanical pulp production volume fluctuated around 23.7 - 23.9 [5]. - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 218.2, up 1.3 from the previous period and 0.6% higher month - on - month. The inventory has been increasing for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 14.2 [5]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: From January 8 - February 5, 2026, double - offset paper production volume fluctuated around 18.7 - 21.1; coated paper production volume fluctuated around 8.3 - 8.5; tissue paper production volume fluctuated around 28.66 - 29.87; kraft linerboard production volume fluctuated around 33.1 - 38.4 [5]. 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In February, Chile's Arauco Company's coniferous pulp offer was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 600 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand Side**: The pulp demand has been stable recently, the finished paper price is stable, and the production volume has increased slightly this week [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of Chinese mainstream pulp ports continued to increase, and the port sample inventory has been in an increasing trend for five consecutive weeks [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA production in January expected to reach a new high and no production cut plan for the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply remains tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains around $150, and although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5140 to 5180, a change of 40; MEG inner - market price increased from 3623 to 3652, a change of 29; PTA closing price increased from 5230 to 5260, a change of 30; MEG closing price increased from 3733 to 3764, a change of 31; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6585 to 6590, a change of 5; short - fiber basis decreased from 52 to 16, a change of - 36; 3 - 4 spread increased from - 74 to - 66, a change of 8; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5300; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1285 to 1290, a change of 5; East China water bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6370 to 6375, a change of 5; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 840 to 845, a change of 5; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 662 to 623, a change of - 39; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4115 to 4110, a change of - 5; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16800; cotton 328 price increased from 15710 to 15765, a change of 55; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1496 to 1472, a change of - 24; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7290; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 482 to 438, a change of - 44; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures rose 42 to 6654. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were mainly stagnant, the prices of traders fluctuated within a range, downstream demand was weak, and on - site transactions were sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6470 - 6700 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6590 - 6820 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6550 - 6750 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6280 - 6360 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The futures prices of PTA and bottle chips fluctuated warmly. Most supply - side offers were raised, the market's spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was relatively weak, and the market negotiation focus increased [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07%; the polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 38.00% to 31.00%, a change of - 7.00%; the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

装置检修动态:华东一套250万吨PTA装置预计2月10日开始停车,具体开车时间未定。 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 ·PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 县美 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023-01 2021-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2022-01 2025-06 2025-08 2025-02 2025-04 2025-10 2025-12 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY现金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600= 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-02024-02024-02024-02025-02025-02025-02026-01 -800 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

EHTV 250 F resed Volatility Surfa Omic In MalaOri 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 国产期货研究 金融行 - 品中心 李 资咨询号: Z0000116 从业资格号: F0251925 2026/2/11 行情回顾 成交额(亿元) 收盘价 成交量(亿) 指数 涨跌幅 (8) 3087. 405 1220. 16 0. 18 38. 16 上证50 沪深300 187. 00 4724. 2956 0. 11 4503. 40 中证1000 8250. 3001 0. 20 4750. 51 291. 92 中金所股指期权成交情况 认洁期权 期权持仓量 认沽期权 期权成交量 认购期权 认购期权 持仓量 日成交量 指数 成交量 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 上证50 2. 45 1. 50 0. 95 0. 63 8. 43 5.14 3. 29 0. 64 沪深300 6. 70 2. 53 22. 35 8.87 4. 17 0. 61 13. 48 0. 66 中证1000 21. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, before the Spring Festival, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly to accumulate strength for further upward movement, and long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand is still weak, market participation has declined, and copper, aluminum, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to decline and then stabilize, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Market sentiment has improved. Indonesia's ESDM has issued a nickel ore RKAB quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons in 2026, and the approval of nickel ore quotas has been slow recently, increasing concerns about future nickel ore supply. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to be strong, but are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1]. - The raw material end of stainless steel still has support, and with the improvement of macro - sentiment, stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term and hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - In the short - term, macro - negative factors have been exhausted, but the volatility of tin prices is still large. In the short - term, investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The weak US dollar index, uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and China's continuous gold purchases for 15 months support precious metal prices. However, before the Spring Festival, market funds may be cautious, and precious metals are expected to stabilize and oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The weak US dollar index supports platinum and palladium prices, but the US Trade Representative's discussion of an agreement on critical minerals may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium prices, so they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [1]. - In the cement industry, production has increased in the Northwest and decreased in the Southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has declined [1]. - In the new energy vehicle industry, it is the off - season, but energy storage demand is strong, and there is a rush to export batteries. The price has risen significantly and there is a need for a correction [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the expectation is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to exit long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - For iron ore, there is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this level [1]. - For silicon iron and glass, the reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Energy consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, and its medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, during the off - season of the black industry, before the Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment is almost over. The market pays more attention to capital sentiment. It is recommended to cash in on the spot when the market rises and establish cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. - For palm oil, the MPOB monthly report data has a positive expected difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [1]. - For soybean oil, the cost is supported by the strong US soybean market. There is no abnormal weather in South America, and it is recommended to pay more attention to Sino - US soybean trade trends. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For rapeseed oil, after the anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15% after March, and the supply contradiction is expected to ease [1]. - For cotton, there is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term [1]. - For corn, before the Spring Festival, trading is coming to an end, and the price fluctuation is limited. After the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, policy - grain release, import arrivals, and new - season wheat growth. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - For soybeans, the increase in US soybean export expectations boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazilian discounts partially offsets the impact. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent selling pressure of Brazilian discounts and consider going long on M2609 at a low level [1]. - For pulp, there are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after inventory replenishment. It is recommended to wait and see when the commodity sentiment fluctuates significantly [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the external quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the spot price is gradually stabilizing, demand is supported, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cool down, and the commodity market sentiment has turned bearish. In the short - term, it follows crude oil [1]. - For asphalt, the supply of raw material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, the profit is high, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction may be falsified [1]. - For natural rubber, the raw material cost has strong support, the market sentiment has turned bearish, the downstream demand before the Spring Festival has weakened, and the basis has widened to a high level [1]. - For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene has strong support, private cis - butadiene rubber plants may reduce production due to losses, but the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - For PTA, the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed, PX maintains fundamental resilience, the downstream PTA industry is strong, and the domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high with no planned production cuts during the Spring Festival and no new capacity throughout the year [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the production profit of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the price is waiting at a low level [1]. - For pure benzene, the inventory is high and the import demand is weak. The Asia - US spread is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising costs [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand has limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support [1]. - For methanol, it is affected by the situation in Iran, with expected import reduction, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude restarted on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Inland transportation costs have risen due to cold air, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [2]. - For crude oil, it oscillates strongly, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment has ended, with flat demand during the holiday [2]. - For PVC, there is less global production in 2026, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the rush to export has slowed down [2]. - For liquid chlorine, the macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is trading fundamentals again, the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is at a low level, the price of liquid chlorine has weakened, and the spot price has risen slightly [2]. - For LPG, the CP price in February has risen, the purchase in March is still relatively tight, the short - term risk premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has declined, the driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, the market expectation is weakening, the basis is expected to widen, the domestic PDH operating rate has declined, the profit is expected to recover seasonally, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. The ports are continuously reducing inventory, but the domestic civil gas is sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [2]. - For container shipping, the pre - festival freight rate has peaked and declined, airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights, and airlines expect to stop the price decline and raise prices strongly after the off - season in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term strong oscillation before the Spring Festival, long - term long positions held [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, attention on Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper, aluminum, alumina: Oscillation due to weak downstream demand and increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Zinc: Cost center stabilizes, price expected to decline and then stabilize, wait - and - see recommended [1]. - Nickel: Short - term strong due to supply concerns and improved macro - sentiment, long - term suppression from high inventory [1]. - Stainless steel: Raw material support and improved macro - sentiment, short - term long at low prices, light positions during holiday [1]. - Tin: High short - term volatility, focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - Precious metals: Supported by various factors, but cautious market funds before Spring Festival, short - term stable oscillation [1]. - Platinum and palladium: Supported by weak US dollar, but agreement discussion may cause fluctuations, short - term wide - range fluctuation [1]. New energy and related industries - Polysilicon and organic silicon: December production decline [1]. - New energy vehicles: Off - season, but strong energy storage demand and battery export rush, price correction needed [1]. Building materials - Cement: Production increase in Northwest and decrease in Southwest [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: Strong expectation but weak spot, insufficient upward momentum, exit long positions and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron ore: Upward pressure, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Silicon iron and glass: Weak reality, strong expectation, supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand relaxation, price under pressure [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Off - season, focus on capital sentiment, cash in on spot when rising and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: MPOB report has positive difference, but subsequent fundamentals have pressure, wait - and - see before Spring Festival [1]. - Soybean oil: Cost supported by US soybeans, no abnormal South American weather, short - term oscillation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Anti - dumping ruling, supply contradiction expected to ease [1]. - Cotton: Short - term support but no driving force, attention on future policies and market conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, domestic new - crop supply increase, short - seller consensus, cost support if price falls, lack of short - term driving force [1]. - Corn: Pre - festival trading end, post - festival attention on selling pressure, policies, and wheat growth, range oscillation [1]. - Soybeans: US export boost, Brazilian discount impact, domestic market weaker, consider long on M2609 at low level [1]. Forest products - Pulp: Supply disturbances, demand weakens after inventory replenishment, wait - and - see during significant commodity sentiment fluctuations [1]. - Logs: Spot price rise, expected decline in February arrivals and rise in external quotation, upward driving force for futures [1]. Livestock - Live pigs: Spot price stabilizing, demand support, production capacity not fully released [1]. Energy and chemicals - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspension, Middle East geopolitical cooling, short - term follows crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Sufficient raw material supply, high profit, demand falsification possibility [1]. - Natural rubber: Cost support, bearish market sentiment, weak pre - festival downstream demand, widened basis [1]. - BR rubber: Butadiene cost support, plant production reduction expectation, high inventory risk, short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term upward expectation [1]. - PTA: PX spread narrowing, PX resilience, strong downstream industry, high production and no new capacity [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Naphtha cracking profit decline, Korean producers maintain operating rate, low - price waiting [1]. - Pure benzene: High inventory, weak import demand, Asia - US spread not enough for arbitrage, styrene recovery [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment easing, limited domestic upside, anti - involution and cost support [1]. - Methanol: Affected by Iran, import reduction expected, downstream negative feedback, device changes, Iran situation and inland inventory - clearing [2]. - Crude oil: Strong oscillation, price in reasonable range, pre - festival inventory replenishment end, flat holiday demand [2]. - PVC: Future optimism with capacity elimination, current poor fundamentals, slowed export rush [2]. - Liquid chlorine: Macro - sentiment subsides, trading fundamentals, weak fundamentals, low price, liquid chlorine weakening, spot rise [2]. - LPG: Rising CP price, tight March purchase, declining risk premium, weakening expectation, basis widening, bearish demand, port inventory reduction and domestic gas sufficiency [2]. Shipping - Container shipping: Pre - festival freight rate decline, cautious airline resumption, expected post - off - season price increase [2].

| | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 業 | 现值 | 1267 | 1122 | 1801 | 1155 | 2530 | 1403 | | | 前値 | 1317 | 1176 | 1867 | 1101 | 2605 | 1418 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.81% | -4.55% | -3.54% | 4.90% | -2.88% | -1.06% | | 발 | | | | | | | | | JE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1657 | 2291 | | | | | | | 前值 | 1792 | 2424 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | -7.53% | -5.49% | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 ...