投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 短期供需错配，盘面高位震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-08 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:短期供需错配，盘面高位震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）目前基层售粮进度已超三成，处于历史同期偏快水平；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，东北、西北增产，华北减产，全国整体维持丰产预期；（3） 进口巴西玉米陆续到港。 | | 需求 | | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，截至2025年10月，全国工业饲料产量2907万吨，环比减少4.2%，同比增长3.6%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为 38.0%，同比下降2.7个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策倾向于控生猪存 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 5, the A-share market fluctuated upward with accelerated rotation of theme stocks and over 4,300 stocks rising. In the afternoon, the non-bank financial sector saw heavy volume and pulled up, with insurance and financial technology leading the way. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3902.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.36%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.52%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index remained flat, the Wind All A Index rose 1.14%, the Wind A500 rose 0.99%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.95%. The total trading volume of A-shares throughout the day was 1.74 trillion yuan, compared with 1.56 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing prices, daily percentage changes, trading volumes (in billions of yuan), and trading amounts (in billions) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are as follows: Shanghai 50 closed at 3002.0087, up 0.93% with a trading volume of 1104.47 billion yuan and a trading amount of 44.60 billion; CSI 300 closed at 4584.5368, up 0.84% with a trading volume of 4121.47 billion yuan and a trading amount of 196.80 billion; CSI 1000 closed at 7342.4924, up 1.29% with a trading volume of 3528.06 billion yuan [3]. - **CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation**: For the Shanghai 50, the trading volume of call options was 2.28 million contracts, put options 3.48 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.53; the open interest of call options was 3.78 million contracts, put options 2.81 million contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.74, and the total open interest was 6.59 million contracts. For the CSI 300, the trading volume of call options was 12.54 million contracts, put options 10.32 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.65; the open interest of call options was 8.12 million contracts, put options 4.92 million contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.79, and the total open interest was 18.44 million contracts. For the CSI 1000, the trading volume of call options was 15.02 million contracts, put options 32.48 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.81; the open interest of call options was 16.61 million contracts, put options 12.10 million contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.95 [3]. 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility Analysis**: The historical volatility cone shows the 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values. The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options [3][4]. - **CSI 300 Volatility Analysis**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, it includes the historical volatility cone and the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money options [3][4]. - **CSI 1000 Volatility Analysis**: Also includes the historical volatility cone and the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money options [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with the expectation that styrene costs will weaken and the market will be mainly bearish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The styrene market generally maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Although the discussion of exports to Western Europe provides some support, the weak sales in the polymer market, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low operating rates of downstream PS, EPS, and ABS significantly offset the bullish sentiment brought by exports. The economic efficiency has slightly improved, but the overall production profit is still negative. The spot quotation in East China shows a slight contango in the forward market, and the inventory continues to rise, indicating insufficient restocking willingness at the end - user level. The short - term supply and demand in the Asian styrene market are basically balanced, but due to weak downstream demand and a negative profit pattern, prices lack upward momentum [130]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The styrene - benzene spread has widened to $150, and the styrene - naphtha spread has risen to $240, with a slight improvement in economic efficiency, but the economic benefits of non - integrated plants are still negative, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 224,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous inventory of 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.59%, and a 79,000 - ton increase from the same period last year of 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.48%, showing a bearish drive [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 160,600 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.19%. The commercial inventory was 96,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 2.34%, showing a neutral drive [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened, overseas blending fuels have weakened, and the market is concerned about the concentration of domestic styrene spot holdings, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $240, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $150. Styrene profits are expanding, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The concentrated maintenance of reforming units is driving up prices, and the market is watching the strengthening of the basis and monthly spreads, showing a neutral drive [4]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Director of the White House National Economic Council of the United States, Hassett, said that the Fed may cut interest rates at the next meeting, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The overseas gasoline off - season has arrived [6]. - **Styrene**: The profits of non - integrated styrene plants have been repaired, and styrene profits have slightly expanded. However, downstream derivative demand has dragged down pure benzene, making it perform weakly [14][25][36]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: Domestic and overseas off - season demand is weak, and the production profit of PS has weakened. The inventory of EPS has accumulated while the production has remained stable [51][64][75]. - **Overseas Benzene Market**: The price has slightly declined. Although overseas pure benzene demand is weak, supply is gradually recovering. The restart of some devices is expected to boost benzene demand, but overall chemical demand is weak [73]. - **Asian Benzene Market**: It has weakened again, mainly dragged down by weak energy and naphtha prices. The short - term Asian benzene market may maintain a pattern of weak supply - demand balance and price pressure [83]. - **Overseas Styrene Market**: The price has declined and trading is light, affected by the holiday effect and high costs. The short - term situation is difficult to improve significantly [93]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory has continued to accumulate [94]. - **Adipic Acid**: The load has decreased and profits have declined [105]. - **Caprolactam**: The inventory has been depleted [116]. - **Home Appliances**: The export demand is weak [125].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 OPEC+继续暂停增产，国际油价暂获支撑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:OPE C +继续暂停增产，国际油价暂获支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,597万桶/日，较2024年上升 280万桶/日。(2)OPEC:10月份OPEC国家原油产量为2846万桶/日，较9月份上升3.3万桶/日，Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1456.4万桶/日，较9月份 | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | | | | | 下降10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：10 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区降水天气增加，对割胶作业扰动增强，但随着气温下降整体原料产 出呈现季节性减量趋势，当地加工厂高价采购原料积极性走低，原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰东北维持旺产期产出，杯胶价格继续回落； | | 供给 | 中性 | 泰南洪水逐渐消退，恢复割胶 及工厂生产，虽有抢原料，但供应增量预期施压原料，胶水价格走跌。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步转好，中北部的极 | | | | 端天气影响减弱，因进口胶减少，工厂采购成本上移 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 重磅会议临近，市场情绪偏强 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-12-08 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 素 | | | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 国内11月PMI数据喜忧参半，企业利润增速下行。制造业景气度小幅回暖，但非制造业景气度有所回落。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月 官方制造业PMI为49.2%，前值49%，其中供需小幅修复，生产指数回升至荣枯线上，为50.0%，较前值回升0.3个百分点，新订单指数、新出口 | | | | 订单分别较前值小幅回升0.4、1.7个百分点至49.2%、47.6%，但仍处于荣枯线下方。非制造业商务活动指数回落至收缩区间，为49.5%，前值 | | 业盈利 | | 50.1%。 工业企业利润承压下行。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 现货运价 利多 12月下旬MSK报价2400、HPL报价2050；CMA报价3550。 MSK针对1月涨价函3500。 政治经济 利空 【1】全球主要班轮公司 CMA CGM 宣布，其 INDAMEX 航线 在往返印度/巴基斯坦与美国东海岸的正向与回程航次中，将全面改为通过 苏伊士运河 （Suez Canal） 航行。这一决定被视为集装箱船大规模重返 红海航道 的重要进展信号。【2】穿越曼德海峡（Bab el Mandeb）这一关键航道的通行量 （全船型）已达到 自 2024 年 1 月以来的最高水平，进一步印证了业界关于"全面重返红海"的情绪正在升温。【3】欧洲相关航线受供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and declined, still in a range - bound oscillation with different sectors showing divergent trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes both fluctuated downwards, while gold and non - ferrous sectors performed strongly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. The black - goods sector was weak, and the energy - chemical sector oscillated. Overseas, the weak ADP employment data supported the Fed's possible December interest - rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. If Hassett became the next Fed chair, he might support faster rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike. Domestically, in November, the macro - economic climate was stable but declined slightly, and although the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, future domestic demand remained weak. Commodity prices may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and central banks' decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities oscillated and declined, with different sectors showing different trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes declined, while gold and non - ferrous sectors were strong due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation; the black - goods sector was weak because of domestic economic weakness and cooling policy expectations; the energy - chemical sector oscillated due to the intertwining of multiple factors [4]. - **Overseas Situation**: The ADP employment data in November showed a reduction of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. After the data release, traders expected a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The weak data supported a possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to have pre - selected Hassett as the Fed chair, with an over 80% probability according to Kalshi. If elected, Hassett might support faster rate cuts, but he needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, which was earlier than market expectations [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly, and the overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined. Future domestic demand remained weak, but the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting in December [4]. - **Commodity Outlook**: Commodities may maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the intertwining of multiple macro - factors. Uncertainty about the Fed's December rate cut, the Bank of Japan's possible rate hike, weak domestic economic growth, and geopolitical changes may all cause market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to central banks' decisions [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The ADP employment data in November was weak, which supported the Fed's possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to pre - select Hassett as the Fed chair, and if elected, he might support faster rate cuts but needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, earlier than market expectations [4]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly. The overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined, and future domestic demand remained weak. The full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings in December [25]. - **REITs**: In December, the REITs market showed certain trends. In November 2025, there were some changes in the REITs market compared with the previous period [29]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In 2025, there were comparisons of some economic indicators with 2024, such as GDP - related data, showing certain growth and changes in the economic structure [30]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces showed different trends at different times. For example, in December, the operating rates of PTA and POY were 74.1% and 89.00% respectively [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In November and December, the wholesale and retail data of automobile manufacturers showed certain growth rates and changes, such as a 24.29%, 25.61%, and 30.47% increase in some data [48]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In December, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index showed different trends [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美叙事 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA目前对2025/26 年度美豆的预估值为单产 53 蒲式耳 / 英亩，期末库存 2.9 亿蒲（对应库消比 6.7%）。后续美豆单产或因 8-9 月产区降雨偏少进 | | | | 一步下调；（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至11月29日，巴西大豆播种率为86%，上周为78%，去年同期为90%，五年 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 均值为84.4%。根据BAGE，截至11月26日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆进度达到36%，高于一周前的24.6%，但是同比落后9%，比五年均值落后1%。未来两 | | | | 周巴西产区降水预期有所改善，阿根廷天气偏干利于播种。（3）12-1月国内大豆、豆粕预期季节性去库；明年一季度国内豆粕供应存不确定性，需关注储 | ...

II GER期货 【1】全球主要班轮公司 CMA CGM 宣布,其 INDAMEX 航线 在往返印度/巴基斯坦与美国东海岸的正向与回程航次 中,将全面改为通过 苏伊士运河（Suez Canal） 航行。这一决定被视为集装箱船大规模重返 红海航道 的重要进 十，将全面以及地址，亦中上座州（Sule）这一关键航道的通行量（全部型）已达到 自 2020年 奢° 影响显著。FEWB 航线 12 月船司严控运力，空班率仅 0.9%，叠加船舶维修进一步减舱;欧洲北方及地中海主港持 续拥堵,延长船舶周转并致甩拒增加,而电商需求强劲支撑运价,船司推 GRI 带动市场上行,圣诞新年预计维持高 位。TAWB 航线北欧（鹿特丹等）与地中海港口因劳工纠纷等拥堵严重，堆场利用率超 90%，欧洲多国还面临集装箱 与拖车短缺问题。 【EC】 行情综述:震荡。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | C > 1 | E | A P | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 2 | ) | ...