Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is experiencing a decline due to falling costs, sufficient spot supply, poor downstream polyester filament sales, and weak market confidence. The spot basis has weakened. [2] - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures are oscillating in a low - range. The spot price in Zhangjiagang has minor adjustments, and the basis negotiation has slightly weakened. [2] - With the approaching end of the polyester peak season and the weakening of the crude oil fundamentals, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel on October 14, 2025, to 443.7 yuan/barrel on October 15, 2025, a decrease of 4.90 yuan/barrel. [2] - PTA - SC spread increased from 1180.0 yuan to 1197.6 yuan, a rise of 17.61 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3620 to 1.3714, an increase of 0.0095. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 779 to 787, a rise of 8; PX - naphtha spread increased from 212 to 234, a rise of 22. [2] - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4440 yuan/ton to 4422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4380 yuan/ton to 4325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton. [2] - PTA现货加工费 dropped from 188.2 yuan/ton to 106.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.3 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 dropped from 263.2 yuan/ton to 203.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59.3 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG主力期价 dropped from 4061 yuan/ton to 4057 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (106.93) yuan/ton to (107.12) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG内盘 dropped from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31.0. [2] - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6520; POY现金流 increased from 137 to 194, a rise of 57.0. [2] - FDY150D/96F dropped from 6710 to 6670, a decrease of 40.0; FDY现金流 increased from (173) to (156), an increase of 17.0. [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7760; DTY现金流 increased from 177 to 234, a rise of 57.0. [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 46% to 53%, a rise of 7%. [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10; 涤短现金流 increased from 352 to 399, a rise of 47.0. [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 52%, a rise of 8%. [2] - 半光切片 dropped from 5550 to 5500, a decrease of 50.0; 切片现金流 increased from 67 to 74, a rise of 7.0. [2] - 切片产销 increased from 80% to 129%, a rise of 49%. [2] Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 decreased from 86.21% to 84.62%, a decrease of 1.59%. [2] - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 77.58%. [2] - MEG开工率 increased from 64.06% to 164.06%, a rise of 100.00%. [2] - 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 89.38%. [2] Industry Background and Future Impact - A new cracking ethylene plant in a Shandong refinery was put into operation in mid - September, involving a pure benzene production capacity of about 230,000 tons/year, toluene 130,000 tons/year, xylene 60,000 tons/year, 1.5 million tons of ethylene, and a supporting 800,000 - ton EG is expected to be put into operation in October. [2] - The spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from 88 US dollars/ton last week to 85 US dollars/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to 132 US dollars, continuing to support the short - process profit of PX. [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window expanded to 185 US dollars, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotation inspections, resulting in a decline in domestic PTA production. [2] - The ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports remains at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are still limited, the overseas ethylene glycol imports are expected to decline, and the domestic plant commissioning is putting continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is currently restarting after shutting down around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant has increased its load after operating at a low load last week. [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].

| 国贸商品指数 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | CENERS | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITE G | 贸商品指数日报 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 郑建著 | 从业资格号: | F3014717 | | | 2025/10/16 | | | 宏观金融中心 | 投资咨询号: | Z0013223 | | | | | | 周三(10月15日)、 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半。航运期货涨幅居前,集运指数(欧线)涨4.25%; | | | | | | | | 金属全部上涨,沪银涨2.30%;油脂油料多数上涨,豆一涨0.76%;农副产品全部上涨,玉米涨 | | | | | | | | 0.67%;能源品跌幅居前,低硫燃料油跌1.90%;非金属建材全部下跌,玻璃跌1.74%;黑色系多数下 跌、铁矿石跌1.46%:基本金属涨跌参半,沪锌跌1.17%:化工品多数下跌、沥青跌1.10%;新能源材 | | | | | | | | 料多数下跌,碳酸锂跌0.60%。 | | | | | | | | 热评:周三 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 |TG国贸期货 棉系数据日报 | | 农产品中心 | | 期货从业资格证号投资咨询证号 | | 2025/10/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 谢威 | | F03087820 | Z0019508 | | | 指标 | 10月15日 | | 10月14日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | CF01 | 13270 | | 13265 | 5 | 0. 04% | | 国内棉花期货 CF05 | 13330 | | 13320 | 10 | 0. 08% | | CF01-05 | -60 | | -55 | -5 | - | | 新疆 | 14513 | | 14598 | -85 | -0. 58% | | 河南 国内棉花现货 | 14755 | | 14868 | -113 | -0. 76% | | 山东 | 14676 | | 14758 | -82 | -0.56% | | 新疆-主连基差 | 1243 | | 1333 | -90 | - | | 国内棉纱期货 CY | 19325 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | CONEX日银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点包 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/15 | 4197. 46 | 52. 44 | 4214.90 | 51. 43 | 960. 34 | 11533.00 | 957. 30 | 11930.00 | | (本表數 据来源: | ...

TG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 贸用货有限公 妇一流的衍生品综合服务商 1180 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/10/16 | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | 农产品中心 | | 176 期货从业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号_ 30 陈凡生 | | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/14 | 一口价变动 | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 一天津 | 9420 | 9500 | -80 | 5000 | | | | | | 张家港 | 9260 | 9340 | -80 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 | 9200 | 9280 € | -80 | 3000 2000 | | | | | | 级豆油 | 2025/10/15 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market show both supply and demand increasing. The continuous resumption of production by large northwest manufacturers drives up industrial silicon output. On the demand side, affected by the resumption of production in Qinghai and the ramping - up of new capacities in other regions, the production schedule of polysilicon in October is expected to increase. With the organic silicon production schedule in October being basically stable, silicon prices may fluctuate [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Content Futures Market - SI2510: Closing price is 8660, change rate is 1.23%, and open interest is 1183 [1] - SI2511: Closing price is 8570, change rate is - 0.12%, and open interest is 142381 [1] - SI2512: Closing price is 8945, change rate is - 0.28%, and open interest is 112415 [1] - SI2601: Closing price is 8875, change rate is - 0.34%, and open interest is 124630 [1] - SI2602: Closing price is 8885, change rate is - 0.34%, and open interest is 22957 [1] Spot Market - In the East China region: 553 (non - oxygen - passing) price is 9300 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9400 with no change; 421 price is 9700 with no change; 441 price is 9650, up 200; 3303 price is 10550 with no change; 553 (flux - passing) price is 9450 with no change [1] - At Huangpu Port: 421 price is 10100 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9300 with no change [1] - At Tianjin Port: 421 price is 9850 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9600 with no change [1] - In Sichuan: 421 price is 9750 with no change [1] - DMC price is 11300 with no change; 107 glue price is 11500, down 2000; polysilicon (dense material, per kilogram) price is 51.25 with no change; average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21050, up 50 [1] Price Spread - SI2510 - SI2511 spread is 90, up 120; SI2511 - SI2512 spread is - 375, up 10; 421 spot - 553 oxygen - passing spot spread is 300 with no change; basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 830, down 50 [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - Total warehouse capacity is 280,000 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts yesterday was 42684, and today it is 42090, a decrease of 594 [1] Industry News - The environmental impact assessment public participation first - phase information of the 90,000 - ton organic silicon product project of Jiangxi Fuxin Organic Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. was released on the Jiujiang government website [1]

IC ERING 2 3500 FEE 3 1 30 V 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 方 网 官 www.itf.com.cn | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC EN .. | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中金属数据日报 | | | 方冒起 | 国贸期货研究员 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 2025/10/16 | | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | | 价格指标 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) 图表 | | | 制 10553. 5 | 10600 | -0.16 | -2. 44 LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | 锌 2924. 5 | 3049 | -2.24 | -3.69 | | | LME 2725.5 品 | 1940 | -0. 84 | 1500000 -1. 43 | | | (美元/吨) | | | | | | 镍 15110 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains loose, and the recent market still has a downward trend. The market is mainly affected by macro and cost - side positives and weak domestic demand negatives, and is generally in a state of waiting while fluctuating [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of pulverized coal is 465.00, the price of smokeless small pieces is 920.00, and the price of natural gas is 3700.00 on October 15, 2025, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, and 20.00 respectively compared to the previous day [1] Price - On October 15, 2025, the prices in Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, and China FOB remained unchanged from the previous day, while the price in Shanxi increased by 10.00 to 1470.00. The prices of Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR also remained unchanged [1] Inventory - On October 15, 2025, the factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 144.39, 41.50, and 4050.00 respectively [1] Supply - On October 15, 2025, the 5 - day production was 199400.00, the overall开工率 was 85.24, the coal - based开工率 was 89.41, and the gas - based开工率 was 73.39, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] Demand - On October 15, 2025, the remaining待发订单 was 7.00, the复合肥开工 was 25.50, the melamine开工 was 65.47, and the formaldehyde开工 was 34.49, all remaining unchanged [1] Profit - On October 15, 2025, the profit of fixed - bed was - 327.00, the profit of water - coal slurry was 142.00, and the profit of natural gas was - 225.00, all remaining unchanged [1] Related Products - On October 15, 2025, the price of liquid ammonia was 2050.00, the price of compound fertilizer was 2450.00, the price of melamine was 5050.00, and the price of methanol was 2160.00 (down 10.00 from the previous day) [1] Futures - On October 15, 2025, the结算 price was 1604.00 (up 2.00 from the previous day), the基差 was - 60.00 (down 3.00 from the previous day), the涨跌幅 was 0.12 (up 0.31 from the previous day), the成交量 was 6117987.00 (down 23124.00 from the previous day), the持仓量 was 322686.00 (up 694.00 from the previous day), and the仓单量 was 6493.00 (down 77.00 from the previous day) [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].