| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------------------|---------------------------|--------|----------| | 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 人行运用多项货币政策工具维持宽松 | ——国信期货宏观周报 | 官方制造业 PMI 2024-12-01 | 连续 2 | 个月扩张 | | | | | | | 研究咨询部 1 周度回顾 3 大类资产 目 录 2 高频数据 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 研究咨询部 =期货有限责任公。 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 1125-1201 UOSEN 1.1 周度回顾（1125-1201） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 周一，11月25日。根据中国人民银行消息，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，2024年11 月25日，人民银行开展9000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限1年，最高投标利率 2.30%，最低投标利率1.90%，中标利率2.00%。 ⚫ 周二，11月26日。根据央视新闻的报道，当地时间25日，美国当选 ...

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached 94.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[10] - The contribution rates to GDP growth were 49.9% from final consumption, 26.3% from capital formation, and 23.8% from imports and exports[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 42.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[40] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.3%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%[46] Export Performance - From January to October 2024, total exports amounted to 2.93 trillion USD, recovering to 2022 levels[26] - In October 2024, exports to ASEAN, EU, and the US increased by 15.8%, 12.7%, and 8.1% respectively[26] Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate decreased from 8.7% at the beginning of the year to 7.5% by October 2024[76] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue net buying government bonds to improve monetary supply structure[74] Price Levels - CPI showed slight improvement, while PPI fell by 2.9% in October 2024[59] - The upward pressure on prices is anticipated to come from monetary policy and improved market demand[59] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits fell by 3.5% year-on-year by the end of Q3 2024, with state-owned enterprises facing significant pressure[70] - The manufacturing PMI indicated weak expansion, with production indices showing some recovery[80] Real Estate Market - Real estate development saw a 12.4% decline in construction area and a 22.6% drop in new starts from January to October 2024[48] - Policy measures are expected to gradually stabilize the real estate market in 2025[52] Geopolitical Factors - The potential re-election of Trump in 2024 may lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting trade dynamics[32] - The anticipated tariffs could reach as high as 60% under extreme scenarios, affecting China's exports to the US[32] Consumer Spending - Retail sales totaled 39.90 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in 2024[22] - The recovery in consumer spending is supported by rising asset income and active private sector production[22]

Economic Indicators - M2 growth rate increased to 7.5% year-on-year as of the end of October, up 0.7 percentage points from September[4] - M1 decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to September[4] - Social financing stock grew by 7.8% with an increment of 1.4 trillion yuan in October[4] Market Performance - The industrial added value for October grew by 5.3%, with foreign and Hong Kong-Macau enterprises seeing a rebound to 2.9% growth[8] - Retail sales recorded a growth of 4.8%, the highest since the beginning of the year, with commodity retail growth at 5.0%[8] - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.4%, while private investment saw a decline of 0.3%[8] Real Estate and Policy Changes - Real estate market remains weak with a decline of 10.3%, but tax policy adjustments aim to reduce transaction costs and stimulate demand[6] - The government announced an increase in public holidays, which is expected to boost consumer spending and tourism[10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - October CPI rose by 0.3%, while PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating weak price levels[8] - The Federal Reserve's stance suggests no urgency for interest rate cuts, with a 61.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December[12]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Data - The Chinese government has introduced a fiscal policy totaling 12 trillion yuan to address hidden debts and stabilize the economy[8] - In October, China's exports grew significantly by 12.7% year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate since July 2022[12] - The trade surplus for October was reported at 95.72 billion USD, with exports valued at 309.06 billion USD and imports at 213.34 billion USD[5] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%[5] - The Swedish central bank also lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.75%[8] - The Bank of England reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%[8] Group 3: Price Levels and Inflation - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%[11] - The decline in PPI was influenced by a 3.3% drop in production material prices, which contributed to a 2.45 percentage point decrease in the index[13] - Transportation and communication prices saw a significant drop of 4.8%, the largest decline in 18 months, primarily due to falling international oil prices[12] Group 4: Market Performance - Major Chinese stock indices experienced substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.51% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 6.75%[37] - The 10-year government bond futures rose by 0.26%, indicating a positive sentiment in the bond market[37] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 1495 points, reflecting a recovery in shipping rates[31]

Economic Indicators - The onshore USD/CNY exchange rate broke 7.14, reaching a high of 7.1435 on October 29[5] - The U.S. Q3 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value was 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.0%[5] - Eurozone Q3 GDP quarter-on-quarter initial value was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.2%[5] - China's official manufacturing PMI for October was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from September, indicating a return to expansion[8] Labor Market - The U.S. unemployment rate for October remained at 4.1%, unchanged from the previous month[5] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 jobs in October, significantly lower than the previous month's revised figure of 223,000[5] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 500 billion CNY reverse repo operation, indicating liquidity support[9] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting on November 8, following weaker job growth[11] Housing Market - Major Chinese banks announced a new pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, allowing borrowers to adjust the repricing cycle to three or six months[6] Commodity Prices - The average wholesale price of pork remained stable at 24.44 CNY/kg, while vegetable prices declined to 5.37 CNY/kg[14] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 1378 points[24] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.55%[29] - The 10-year government bond futures rose by 0.38%, indicating a flight to safety amid stock market declines[29]

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth rate for the first three quarters is 4.8%, slightly below the annual target of around 5.0%[1] - The industrial added value has shown signs of recovery, while consumption remains at a low point, and fixed asset investment needs improvement[1] Policy Measures - Multiple macroeconomic policies have been implemented since the end of September, including interest rate cuts and increased local government debt quotas[2] - The People's Bank of China has initiated a swap facility to enhance liquidity for securities, funds, and insurance companies, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan[6] Inflation and Monetary Supply - The CPI in September increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.3%, indicating a widening gap in price levels[28] - M2 growth is at 6.8%, while M1 has decreased by 7.4%, reflecting ongoing challenges in market liquidity and demand[29] Industrial and Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 37.90 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, while private investment has declined by 0.2%[16] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.2%, infrastructure investment by 9.3%, but real estate development investment fell by 10.1%[16] Trade Performance - In September, exports totaled 303.71 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while total imports were 222.0 billion USD, up by 0.3%[22] - For the first three quarters, total exports reached 26,176.6 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%[22] Employment and Corporate Profits - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained above 4.0% for four consecutive months, indicating a weakening labor market[3] - From January to September, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 3.5%, marking the first decline of the year[33]

Economic Overview - In September 2024, China's total import and export value reached $525.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%[5] - The GDP for the first three quarters of 2024 was $94.97 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, slightly below the target of around 5.0%[10] - The M2 money supply increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of the end of September, while M1 decreased by 7.4%[5] Policy Developments - New policies to support the real estate market include the addition of 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a credit scale increase for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by year-end[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated several monetary policy tools to stabilize the capital market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and expected further cuts in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.20% for 1-year and 0.25% for 5-year loans[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.95% during the week of October 14-20[32] - The average wholesale price of pork remained stable at 25.08 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices decreased to 5.79 yuan/kg and fruit prices slightly increased to 7.46 yuan/kg[17] International Context - The European Central Bank lowered its deposit facility rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, marking the third rate cut of the year, reflecting ongoing monetary easing in developed economies[8] - The UK’s inflation rate for September was reported at 1.7%, down from 2.2% in the previous month, influencing expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England[8]

Group 1: Economic Policies - The Chinese government has fully allocated 700 billion yuan from the central budget for investment and issued 1 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds to local governments[5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of favorable incremental policies, including increasing local government debt limits and issuing special bonds to support state-owned banks[10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) established the Securities, Funds, and Insurance companies Swap Facility (SFISF) with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan to enhance liquidity management[8] Group 2: Inflation and Price Levels - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%, widening the decline by 1.0 percentage points[10] - The CPI increase was primarily driven by a 16.2% rise in pork prices, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI[15] - The PPI's decline was influenced by a 3.3% drop in production material prices, which accounted for about 2.41 percentage points of the PPI decrease[15] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock market saw significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 4.45%[41] - Conversely, government bond futures experienced gains, with the 2-year bond futures rising by 0.02% and the 30-year bond futures increasing by 1.94%[41] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in price levels in October due to favorable monetary and fiscal policies, alongside rising international oil prices[17]

Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, bringing the weighted average to approximately 6.6%[5] - The PBOC lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.70% to 1.50%, a decrease of 20 basis points[5] - A new monetary policy tool was introduced to support the stability of the stock market[5] Economic Indicators - From January to August 2023, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 4.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, but down 15.79% compared to the same period in 2022[14][16] - The inventory of finished goods in large-scale industrial enterprises rose by 5.2% year-on-year as of the end of August 2023, indicating a continued trend of replenishment[14] Market Reactions - Major A-share indices saw significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.81% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 17.83%[40] - The 2-year government bond futures fell by 0.09%, while the 30-year futures dropped by 3.85%[40] International Developments - The central banks of Sweden and Switzerland both reduced their policy rates by 25 basis points, with Sweden's rate now at 3.25% and Switzerland's at 1.00%[8][18] Commodity Prices - The wholesale price of pork decreased to 26.13 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices increased slightly to 6.46 yuan/kg[24] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose to 2110 points, indicating an upward trend in shipping costs[32]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观季报 宏观 美联储开启降息周期 人行降准或购买国债更有效 2024 年 9 月 22 日 ⚫ 主要结论 综合来说，8 月国民经济总体平稳，结构性矛盾仍待改善。具体来看，8 月，规上工业增加值延续放缓，国有企业增幅仍不高；消费维持底部徘徊， 商品零售有较大拖累，餐饮增速有压力；固投总体不理想，民间投资年内首 次转负，房地产市场仍然不佳；出口补缺口步伐稳健，维持低基数下趋势性 恢复；新增人民币贷款回升以及政府债券发行加速，社融增量显著好转；物 价水平走势显分歧，M1 跌幅再次扩大。 美联储开启降息周期。北京时间 9 月 19 日凌晨，美联储发布利率决议声 明，降息 50 个基点。本次降息幅度较大，美联储更多地是向市场传达宽松政 策的决心，并以此继续推行"缩表"进程。美联储在"缩表"和降息之间进 行配合，或者说，美联储为了继续"缩表"，采取了相对较大的降息幅度。 关于美国经济，GDP 增速已经恢复至新冠疫情前的水平。目前并未有较为明 确的信号表明美国经济已经步入衰退，或者说，美联储降息幅度较大主要是 起到预防性作用。关于后期降息路径，预计美联储 2024 年内剩余的 2 次议 ...