1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Stock index fluctuations increase and bonds recover. Stock index futures should be put under observation, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [121][123][124] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50) and CSI 300 Market Review**: The SSE 50 is approaching a new high, and the CSI 300 has reached a new high [9] - **1.2 CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bond Market Review**: The CSI 500 has reached a new high, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **2.1.1 Trading Volume of SSE 50 and CSI 300**: The trading volume of the SSE 50 has declined, while that of the CSI 300 has increased [21] - **2.1.2 Trading Volume of CSI 500 and CSI 1000**: The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have declined [25] - **2.1.2 Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2 trillion [29] - **2.1.3 Turnover Rate - Free - Float Market Capitalization**: The turnover rates of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 have increased, and those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have increased significantly [32] - **2.2.1 CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent [39] - **2.2.2 CSI 300 Sector ALPHA**: The ALPHA values of the materials, information, and telecommunications sectors are positive, while those of the energy, finance, and utilities sectors are negative over the full cycle [43] - **2.3 Newly Listed Companies**: In July, the number of listed companies increased by 3 [49] - **2.4.1 Stock Index Positions**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.4.2 Stock Index Premium or Discount**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.5.2 Treasury Bond Basis - Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **3.1.1 Open Market Operations**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity - CSI**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (10 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has declined significantly [84] - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (5 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [87] - **3.1.3 Inter - bank Repo Rate**: The inter - bank repo rate has declined slightly [91] - **3.1.4 Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has declined significantly [95] - **3.2.1 CPI - PPI**: In August, the CPI was - 0.4%, showing a slight recovery, and the PPI growth rate reached - 2.9% [99] - **3.2.2 Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing Activities**: In August, the PMI dropped to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3, indicating weak economic recovery [103] - **3.3.1 Consumption Situation**: In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, showing a slight increase [108] - **3.3.2 Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence is on a downward trend [111] - **3.4.1 Overall Money Supply**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, credit accelerated, and M1 was 6% (Note: The central bank revised the M1 indicator). The newly added RMB loans in August were 590 billion [113][115] - **3.4.2 Newly Added RMB Loans**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.4 Outlook for the Future - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market trading volume is at the level of 2.5 trillion. Market sentiment shows that the number of limit - up stocks exceeds 100, and the number of falling stocks increases significantly. Hot sectors such as AI, the chip industry chain, and communications are experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. Funds are flowing into low - valuation sectors. Institutions have net inflows, while the main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors all have net outflows. Stock market fluctuations increase, and stock index futures should be put under observation [123] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the money market level, the central bank has a net reverse - repurchase injection of 196.1 billion. The money liquidity is relatively sufficient, and domestic market interest rates remain low. The yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuates around 1.7895%. With significant stock market fluctuations, investors' risk preferences may be more cautious, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [124]

Report Title - "Sino-US to Conduct a New Round of Economic and Trade Talks, Overseas Fed Rate Cut to Be Implemented Soon - Guoxin Futures Macro Weekly Report" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Sino-US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks, with non-tariff economic and trade issues likely to be important topics, and US unilateral tariff measures remaining a key point. Overall, there is cautious optimism about this economic and trade talk. The US Department of Commerce's abuse of export controls may be an attempt to gain more leverage in the talks. China's Ministry of Commerce's anti-discrimination and anti-dumping investigations against the US will benefit domestic substitution industries for analog chips. Domestically, the economy showed positive signs in August, with exports growing slightly, price levels improving, and money supply and social financing also showing positive changes. Overseas, the US inflation is relatively moderate, and the market highly anticipates a Fed rate cut. Other events such as political changes in France and Japan also have an impact on the market [8][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Review (0908 - 0914) - **Domestic Data**: In August 2025, China's total import and export value was $541.29 billion, with exports at $321.81 billion (up 4.4% year-on-year), imports at $219.48 billion (up 1.3% year-on-year), and a trade surplus of $102.33 billion. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with a narrowing decline. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by 6.0% year-on-year, and M0 by 11.7% year-on-year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the increment in August was 2.57 trillion yuan. On September 15, the central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation [5][6] - **Overseas Data**: In the US, the CPI in August was 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year. The European Central Bank maintained its three major policy interest rates unchanged. As of September 12, the market expected a 93.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut on September 18, and the cumulative rate cut for the year might be 75 basis points [6][9] - **Political Events**: On September 9, French Prime Minister Belleru submitted his resignation. On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his resignation [9][10] - **Economic and Trade Talks**: From September 14 - 17, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US on issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [7] - **Trade Frictions**: The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List," and China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations against the US [7][8] Part 2: High - Frequency Data - **Domestic Commodities**: From 0908 - 0912, the wholesale price of pork was stable at 19.88 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of vegetables decreased slightly to 5.07 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price of fruits decreased slightly to 6.75 yuan/kg [14] - **International Commodities**: From 0908 - 0912, the CRB Spot Composite Index was stable at 551.72 [17] - **Money Market**: From 0908 - 0912, DR007 and R007 both increased slightly to 1.4575% and 1.4651% respectively [20] - **Foreign Trade Market**: From 0908 - 0912, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 2126 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to decline to 1125.30 [24][29] Part 3: Major Asset Classes (0908 - 0912) - **Stock Market**: A - share major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.10% [33] - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The closing prices of treasury bond futures varied, with the 2 - year treasury bond futures down 0.04%, the 5 - year up 0.07%, and the 30 - year down 1.08% [33] - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar index fell 0.13%, the on - shore US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.22%, and the euro against the Chinese yuan fell 0.12% [35] - **Commodity Market**: Crude oil fell 1.39%, Shanghai gold rose 2.28%, live pigs fell 0.53%, Shanghai copper rose 1.15%, and rebar fell 0.51% [35] Part 4: Weekly Focus (0915 - 0921) - September 14 - 17: Sino - US economic and trade talks in Madrid, Spain - September 15: China's August industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data - September 16: US August retail sales month - on - month - September 17: Bank of Canada interest rate decision - September 18: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [38]

供需双降 甲醇震荡筑底 --国信期货甲醇周报 2025年9月14日 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 甲醇期现货价格及价差走势 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 2024-01-01 2024-01-22 2024-02-12 2024-03-04 2024-03-25 2024-04-15 2024-05-06 2024-05-27 2024-06-17 2024-07-08 2024-07-29 2024-08-19 2024-09-09 2024-09-30 2024-10-21 2024-11-11 2024-12-02 2024-12-23 2025-01-13 2025-02-03 2025-02-24 2025-03-17 2025-04-07 2025-04-28 2025-05-19 2025-06-09 2025-06-30 2025-07-21 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the cost line, with support around 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton, due to supply - side复产, increased imports, and lack of short - term domestic demand growth, although potential risks at the Guinea mine end may provide a price safety cushion [16][147][151]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation provides macro - level support, and the strengthening of the peak - season fundamentals, along with inventory de - stocking, will drive up the price. Existing long positions can be held [16][147][151]. - Casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The rise in aluminum prices drives up alloy prices, and the increase in raw material costs and the improvement in demand from the automotive market support the price, despite high inventory levels [18][148][152]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important Information**: In August, the US CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Aluminum will be classified as both "critical minerals" and "growth minerals" in the UK's upcoming strategy. Qinghai Baihe Aluminum plans a 500,000 - ton capacity upgrade project [8][9]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,077.47 yuan/ton, down 68.84 yuan/ton from September 5. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. China's electrolytic aluminum production in August 2025 was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in August was 53.3%, up 9.2% from July [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton. The smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory was 625,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, down 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 72,469 tons, up 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina fluctuated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated upwards [16]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: The domestic alumina spot price continued to fall this week, and the spot premium narrowed to about 150 yuan/ton [30]. - **Supply**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. In August 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased month - on - month and year - on - year [34]. - **Imports and Exports**: On September 11, the FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 338 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 5. The alumina import window opened, increasing domestic supply pressure [35]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the alumina port inventory was 55,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In July, China's alumina export volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of September 12, coal prices in major regions fluctuated. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in September slightly decreased to about 0.382 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable this week [50][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [56]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%, the highest in the same period in the past four years [58]. - **Spot**: As of September 12, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [61]. - **Price Trend and Premium**: This week, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, the spot price in the spot market rose, and the spot was at a discount. LME aluminum fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot was at a premium [67]. - **Demand**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. In August, the aluminum processing industry PMI reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [68]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [71][76]. - **Imports and Exports**: The aluminum ingot import profit window closed. In August 2025, China exported 534,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to August was 3.996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [80][83]. - **End - Use Markets**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles is relatively bright. From September 1 - 7, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% [92]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloys. The price of scrap aluminum has been rising, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has changed [100][105]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by raw material prices. The spot price of ADC12 has changed, and the overseas price and import profit also show certain trends. The production volume of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloys have their own characteristics [111][114][122]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand end for casting aluminum alloys. The demand for casting aluminum alloys has seasonal characteristics, and the new order index has increased since August [126][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloys includes social inventory and factory - level inventory, and the current inventory level is relatively high [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the live hog spot market first declined and then stabilized. The supply was relatively loose due to the continued increase in the slaughter of large - scale farms and the slow digestion of large fat pigs by retail farmers. The live hog futures market was mainly volatile. Fundamentally, as the piglet price falls and the policy promotes the orderly reduction of production capacity, it is beneficial to reduce the long - term supply pressure. In the medium and short term, the potential slaughter volume will remain at a high level until the end of this year. The sales volume of fattening pig feed continued to grow well in August, indicating sufficient live hog inventory. The enterprise slaughter plan in September is still increasing, and retail farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs, so the supply will remain loose and the pressure on the pig market will be difficult to relieve. The operation suggestions are to be bearish with a side - way trend for single - side trading and to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market first declined and then stabilized last week, with loose supply. The futures market was volatile. In the long - term, the falling piglet price and policy - driven production capacity reduction are conducive to reducing supply pressure. In the medium and short - term, the supply will remain loose and the pig market pressure is hard to relieve. The operation suggestions are single - side bearish and spread reverse arbitrage [7] 70. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operation - In case of excessive price decline, the national level does not start temporary reserve purchase for the third - level warning, considers it for the second - level warning, and starts it for the first - level warning. Local areas follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increase, in the market's cyclical fluctuation, the central reserve release starts for the second - level warning and increases the release for the first - level warning. In case of special situations like major animal epidemic risks, after the first - level warning, the release is mainly concentrated in key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, but generally not higher than the central level [70]

研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 现货区域分化 期货近强远弱 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年09月12日 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货走势显著分化，东北地区现货表现偏强，黑龙江深加工企业门前到车量虽有所回升，但仍处于偏低水平，显 示流通余粮偏紧；华北地区现货较弱，山东深加工企业门前到车大幅增加，持粮主体在新玉米上市前加快出货，而深加工企业 压价意愿较强。港口现货总体表现为偏震荡。基本面来看，国内新玉米大量上市将近，因产量预期有所增加，加之成本下降， 贸易商对即将到来的上市压力较为担忧，以加快出货为主。但东北余粮偏紧，加之北方港口去库较快，库存绝对水平已经回到 近年低位，对港口现货形成一定支撑。需求端来看，仔猪价格近期下跌明显，仔猪销售利润进入亏损区间，加上政策层面也试 图推进行业有序去产能，对未来饲料需求形成悲观预期；深加工利润持续不佳，淀粉开机率下降，对玉米需求偏弱。因此，尽 管饲料企业及深加工企业原料库存都已经下降到低位，但在下游需求较差及新玉米大量上市临近的关口，其低库存策略仍会延 续。综合来看，国内余 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp market is currently in a low - level oscillation with a weak overall trend. Although there are some factors such as a new round of foreign market price hikes and industry players' reluctance to sell and support prices, the downstream paper mills' profit margins are under pressure and their acceptance is limited. The market expects the downstream demand to stabilize for a real "reversal". It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated at a low level with a weak overall trend [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of September 11, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.04 percentage points. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,209 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from last week, turning from an increase to a decrease [11]. - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to July**: In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp with an import value of $1.7652 billion and an average unit price of $613.56/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [15]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, up 0.71% from last week, and the increase rate widened by 0.19 percentage points [19][36]. - **European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July**: In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month - on - month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [23]. - **Downstream Pulp Utilization Rates**: Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main way of pulp consumption in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of September 11, the weekly operating load rates of double - copper paper, double - offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.94, 1.90, 5.08, and 0.72 percentage points respectively compared to last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, up 0.71% from last week, and the increase rate widened by 0.19 percentage points. In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp with an import value of $1.545 billion and an average unit price of $582.36/ton. From January to August, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume remaining stable. A new round of foreign market price hikes has led to some reluctance to sell and support prices among industry players, but the downstream paper mills' profit margins are under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the transition between the traditional off - season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market outlook is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current time is at the end of the old - season apple inventory clearance and the stage of waiting for the new - season late - maturing Red Fuji to be listed. The cold - storage remaining volume is low, and the supply is concentrated in Shandong. The cold - storage merchants are eager to sell. The recent rainfall in the northwest may affect the quality of early - maturing apples, leading to increased purchases of cold - storage apples and a slight price increase. Some specifications may still see a price increase of 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/jin. The market generally believes that the new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early - maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year. The opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji is likely to be higher than the previous season. The market may reflect the previous production - reduction expectation, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [37] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over. AP2601 fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - The inventory is lower than the same period last year. As of September 11, 2025, the total remaining volume of apples in national cold - storage is 255,800 tons, the lowest in the past five years. The remaining volume in Shandong's cold - storage is 182,500 tons, and that in Shaanxi is 58,400 tons [12][13] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory Clearance**: As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, with a weekly decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 percentage points. The inventory clearance rate is 96.96%. At the end of the inventory clearance period, there are differences in the shipment situation among different cold - storages, and the data error has slightly increased [18] - **Export Volume**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.39%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons, and the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to rebound [21] - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. For 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin. For merchant's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.8 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin. The price of third - grade fruit is 2.5 - 2.6 yuan/jin, and the price of bulk goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The price of Red General is stable, with the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade red fruit at 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, and the mainstream price of first - and second - grade semi - red fruit at 2.8 - 3.1 yuan/jin [33]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Ferroalloy Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Drag, Policy Support, Wait-and-See Approach" and dated September 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - News Overview - Multiple banks in Shenzhen announced that starting from September 12, they will no longer distinguish between first - and second - home mortgages, and the specific mortgage rates will be determined based on multiple factors [5] - Eight departments in Henan Province jointly issued measures to support housing consumption, including increasing purchase subsidies and raising housing provident fund loan limits [5] - Three national departments issued a work plan for the power equipment industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 6% for traditional power equipment and other goals [5] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year growth of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [5] - Multiple regions in Jiangxi suspended subsidy activities for consumer goods replacement from September 12 at 24:00 [5] Group 3: Market Review - Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon futures showed small fluctuations last week, spot prices remained flat, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The production of manganese silicon continued to rise while steel production decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand situation is expected to become looser, but with low current inventory, the price trend lacks a clear direction. The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 47.38%, an increase of 0.93% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 30,590 tons, an increase of 185 tons [49] - The report also presented data on manganese silicon's basis, price changes, and related production and demand indicators in different regions [9] Group 4: Market Review - Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon futures showed small fluctuations last week, spot prices rebounded slightly, and the basis changed little. Ferrosilicon production decreased month - on - month, and steel production also decreased. The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 16,150 tons, a decrease of 280 tons [49] Group 5: Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Overview - The report covered aspects such as manganese ore prices, import volume, inventory, profit estimation, production, and demand in the manganese silicon industry chain [22][24][26] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Industry Chain Overview - The report analyzed ferrosilicon profit estimation, production, and demand in the ferrosilicon industry chain [38][41][46] Group 7: Outlook - For manganese silicon, due to high production levels, it is advisable to pay attention to energy prices and industrial policy changes and adopt a wait - and - see approach [49] - For ferrosilicon, its trend depends on energy price changes, and a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, natural rubber may show a range - bound oscillation. The supply of glue raw materials is tight, which supports the bottom of rubber prices, and tire companies still have the enthusiasm to replenish stocks at low prices due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stockpiling. However, the rapid decline in the operating rate of tire companies last week and the high finished - product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises may limit the short - term upward space of rubber prices. The impact of weather in production areas on natural rubber output should be continuously monitored in the future [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, rubber prices fluctuated and rebounded, and last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU futures accelerated its rise and reached a new high since June. The rebound of synthetic rubber BR and No. 20 rubber NR was slightly weaker. In August, there was more rainfall in domestic natural rubber production areas, affecting tapping operations. Last week, the rainfall in Thai production areas decreased, but some areas were still affected by rain. In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold 84,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were 624,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11%, with a net increase of about 61,000 vehicles [3] 2. Tight Supply of Upstream Glue Raw Materials - In Hainan, recent heavy rainfall affected tapping, with the daily glue output of the whole island less than 500 tons, and some factories raised prices to buy raw materials. In Yunnan, the daily glue volume was about 3,500 tons recently, and some areas were affected by rainfall. In Thailand, the overall weather improved, but some areas were still affected by rain. In 2025, it is predicted that the global natural rubber output will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 billion tons, and the consumption will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 15.565 billion tons. From January to July 2025, the rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased by 14.3% year - on - year [3][4][7] 3. Continuous Decline in Rubber Inventory at Qingdao Port - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the total import was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. As of last Thursday, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,320 tons week - on - week, and that of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts increased by 706 tons week - on - week. As of the week of August 29, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.75% week - on - week [9][11] 4. Rapid Decline in the Operating Rate of Downstream Tire Enterprises and High Finished - Product Inventory of Semi - Steel Tires - As of the week of September 4, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 58.7%, a decrease of 4.08% from the previous week and 0.22% from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 5.5% from the previous week and 9.6% from the same period last year. In July 2025, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased by 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative output increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of rubber tires in China increased by 5.4% year - on - year [13][16] 5. Future Outlook - The supply side shows a seasonal increase in natural rubber output, but the growth of new rubber output is slow. The demand side has support from rigid demand and pre - holiday stockpiling. However, the rapid decline in the operating rate of tire enterprises and the high inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises limit the short - term upward space of rubber prices. In the short term, natural rubber may show a range - bound oscillation [20]