Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the sugar production in the 2024/25 season is settled at 1.11621 billion tons, up 119,890 tons year - on - year. The sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. With an expected import of over 400,000 tons in May, the overall supply faces pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are under downward pressure. However, the high basis provides some support, and it may face strong resistance below 5,700 yuan/ton, with a possible short - term bottom - building rebound [60]. - Internationally, Petrobras cut the average gasoline price by 5.6% on June 3. The estimated sugar production in India for the 2025/26 season is about 3.5 billion tons. The short - term international sugar price is under pressure with limited upside, but the Brazilian production progress and weather factors need attention. The downside space below 17 cents/pound is relatively limited [60]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated to find the bottom this week, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed content about spot price and basis trends is provided other than the data source [13]. - **National Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Imports**: In April, 130,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil and Thailand are provided [24]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In May 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 32,210 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 29,893, a decrease of 1,688 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 29,893, and the valid forecast was 0 [35]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%, and the sugar production was 398,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [39]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.61%, compared with 47.6% last year [41]. - **Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports**: In April, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared with the same period last year [51]. - **International Main Production Area Weather**: In India, the monsoon brought increased precipitation. In Brazil, increased rainfall in the main production areas was unfavorable for sugarcane crushing [55][56]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: With production determined and sales leading, supply pressure exists, but high basis provides support. There may be a short - term bottom - building rebound. - International market: Gasoline price cuts in Brazil and expected high production in India put pressure on sugar prices, but attention should be paid to Brazilian production and weather [60].

研究所 偏弱震荡，关注主力合约移仓换月 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年6月8日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 本周纸浆期货主力合约移仓换月，SP2509偏弱运行，周度跌幅1.32%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至6月5日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5989元/吨，较上周下跌0.50%，跌幅较上期收窄0.45个百分点；进口阔叶浆周均价4158元/吨 ，较上周下跌0.83%，跌幅较上期收窄0.51个百分点；进口本色浆周均价5312元/吨，较上周下跌0.58%，跌幅较上期扩大0.08个百分点；进口化机浆周均价 3838元/吨，较上周下跌0.10%，由稳转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：4月份纸浆进口量环比下滑 研究所 进口方面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market shows a bullish sentiment. The domestic soybean meal market oscillated and closed higher, influenced by the US trade policy and weather. The domestic rapeseed meal market also followed a similar trend. The soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate faster as the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high [6]. - The oil market presents a differentiated trend. Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, while the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose. The differentiated market may continue [72]. - In the future, for protein meals, weather speculation in the US soybean market may heat up, and the domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster. For oils, the upcoming MPOB report is crucial, and the market will focus on the export situation in June [134]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - CBOT soybeans first declined and then rose this week. The US trade policy changes and geopolitical factors caused significant market fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated and closed higher, with the futures price breaking through 3000 on Friday [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 29, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year reached 44,608,089 tons, higher than the same period last year [11]. 3.1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of June 1, the US soybean planting was 84% complete, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. The first - rating report showed a 67% good - to - excellent rate [24]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - At the end of the month, storms moved south, and wildfire smoke affected air quality in the north - central US. An early - season heatwave hit the west, and temperature differences were significant across regions [29]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The estimated 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production was revised up by 1.3 million tons to 169 million tons. Canada's spring rapeseed planting progress accelerated. The global oilseed market is expected to have production and price changes in 2025/26 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Global Trade Pattern Changes - There were frequent changes in the US trade policy, including tariff adjustments and trade talks. The EU - Ukraine trade policy changed, and the US was promoting more agricultural product exports [40][41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Inventory and Profit - The domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to decline, showing losses. The port soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons [48]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic oil mills' operating rate increased to 65.98%, and the soybean meal inventory reached 306,000 tons, a significant increase. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 22nd week was 1.8367 million tons [56][59]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic rapeseed oil mills' operating rate decreased to 17.61%, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 20,000 tons, while the contract volume increased significantly [65]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - In March 2025, the US used 832 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, a significant increase from February. Indonesia's palm oil export and production increased in March, and the inventory decreased. The global vegetable oil market may face a shortage [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - The southwest monsoon brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, benefiting the oil palm areas [83]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 22nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0706 million tons, an increase of 3.57% week - on - week. The soybean oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly [93]. 3.2.5 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [100][103][106]. 3.2.6 Oil Futures Spread and Arbitrage - The spreads between different oil futures contracts and the arbitrage relationships between oil and meal futures showed certain trends. For example, the oil - to - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds continued to decline [110][113]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, the short - term indicators are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, all indicators are intertwined. For soybean oil, the short - term indicators are intertwined, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bearish. For palm oil, all indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicators are bearish, and the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [133]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, there may be weather speculation in the US soybean market. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and the cost - driven effect of rapeseed meal is prominent. - Oils: The upcoming MPOB report is crucial. If the inventory is in line with expectations, the market will focus on the June export situation. The domestic oil market follows the international market, with policy impacts on soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the palm oil market awaits further report guidance [134].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果月报 时令水果冲击需求，苹果盘面高位回落 苹果 2025 年 05 月 25 日 主要结论 供应端来看，卓创资讯公布了最新一期冷库库存数据，据卓创资讯统计，截 至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，全国冷库库存量约为 148.24 万吨，较去年同期减少 114.08 万吨，低于往年同期水平。分产区来看，山东产区冷库库存量约 86.41 万吨，陕 西产区冷库剩余量约 40.14 万吨。整体来看，产区库存量偏低，但随着气温逐渐 升高，冷库苹果存储成本增加，产区有一定出货压力。 需求端来看，据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，全国冷库库存比例 约为 11.22%，环比下降 1.33 个百分点，同比下滑 8.46 个百分点，去库存率为 82.36%。根据海关总署公布的数据，2025 年 4 月鲜苹果出口量约为 7.26 万吨， 环比减少 24.41%，同比减少 1.77%。 分析师：黎静宜 从业资格号：F3082440 投资咨询号：Z0019052 电话：021-55007766-305180 邮箱：15561@guosen.com.cn 国信期货交易咨询业务资 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 5 月 25 日 主要结论 白糖：国际市场来看：随着北半球主产国陆续完成榨季生产，市场关注重心 已向南半球转移。南巴西开榨初期压榨进度较快，但 4 月下半月受到降雨影响进 度放缓。天气因素在短期影响比较明显。不过总体供应相对充足，国际原糖市场 缺乏持续上行动能，当前行情仍处于宽幅震荡区间中。 国内市场来看，尚未显现显著的供需矛盾，不具备趋势行情的必要条件。虽 然 5 月国内糖市供给仍以国产糖为主力，但随着进口配额发放，叠加进口成本持 续下行等多重因素，进口量放大是必然趋势，糖价上行阻力呈现增强态势。从市 场联动性分析，尽管国内市场呈现内强外弱格局，但难以完全脱离国际市场影响 而独立运行。综合来看，国内糖价阶段性冲高仍需依托国际市场行情提振。总体 运行区间参考 5750-6000 元/吨。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 操作建议：郑糖波段交易为主。 分析师：侯雅婷 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 国信期货白糖月报 缺乏显著 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price of methanol lacks upward momentum due to the weak supply - demand situation and the narrowing theoretical operating range caused by the weak raw coal market [4][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the main contract 2509 of methanol futures first rose and then fell, showing a weak and volatile trend. The futures price at the end of the month was around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1%. The spot prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia also decreased by 5% and 5.6% respectively compared to the end of last month [6]. - The basis of methanol in ports and inland areas weakened significantly. The port basis was around 60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the inland basis decreased by about 140 yuan/ton. The price difference between production and sales areas slightly expanded, but the arbitrage window remained closed [9]. - In May, the global methanol market mostly showed a weak trend. The CFR prices in China's main ports, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US all declined, with decreases of 3.4%, 2.4%, 8.3%, and 6.1% respectively [14]. 2. Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 High Supply in Production Areas and Potential Accumulation of Inland Inventory - In May, the domestic methanol device operating rate remained at a high level. The overall domestic methanol device operating load was 74.51%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 80.90%, nearly 5.44 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The domestic methanol output in May was about 7.24 million tons, a significant increase of 11% from the previous month [2][17]. - The inventory in inland areas has been low due to the external procurement of several methanol - to - olefin devices. However, as the inland production continues to increase, the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, and the sales pressure will also increase, leading to a decrease in prices and a narrowing of corporate profits [19]. 2.2 Inventory Accumulation at Ports Has Reached a Turning Point - Iranian methanol devices restarted in mid - to - late March, increasing the quantity shipped to China. In April, China's methanol imports increased significantly, reaching 787,800 tons, a 66.54% increase from the previous month. In May, Iranian supplies continued to increase, but the import profit decreased as the Chinese spot price dropped. It is estimated that China's methanol imports in May were around 1.1 million tons [29]. - As of the end of May, the coastal methanol inventory was 639,500 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from the end of last month, a 10% month - on - month increase and a 19.49% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume of coastal ports from the end of May to early June will be 790,000 tons, and the port inventory may gradually accumulate [30]. 2.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **International Natural Gas and Import Profit**: In May, international natural gas prices first decreased and then increased, and the international methanol production cost was around 1,780 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in import cost [37]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Profit**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak. As of the end of May, the price of Ordos Q5500 was around 420 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost of northwest coal - to - methanol was around 1,680 yuan/ton. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol slightly decreased, it was still at a high level in recent years, and domestic supply may remain high [39]. - **MTO Device and Traditional Downstream**: By the end of May, the weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 75%, an increase of about 2.8 percentage points from the end of last month. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin devices was 81.51%, an increase of over 4 percentage points from the previous month. Traditional downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the demand for methanol may decrease. However, the traditional downstream capacity is expanding, and if all planned new capacities are put into production, it will increase the demand for methanol by about 6.5 million tons [43][44].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪月报 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 供应压力逐步增加 关注降体重节奏 生猪 2025 年 5 月 25 日 主要结论 综合来看，后期理论出栏量继续增加的格局仍没有改变，供应压力上升将封 住猪价的上方空间。不过，随着市场规模化程度的提高，大企业对猪价的控制力 增强，在整体行业供需尚未达到严重过剩的状态下，猪价下跌很难顺畅。虽然目 前均重已经上升至较高的水平，但是考虑后期进入季节性上涨窗口期，部分大体 重猪可能会选择继续压栏，这会导致降体重不彻底，同时逢低抄底的二次育肥也 会带来阶段性支撑，这将导致库存出清时间点后移。因此，猪价中长期承压下， 阶段性走势仍可能表现出震荡纠结特征。而对于期货来说，盘面贴水较大，近端 合约要密切关注大体重猪出栏及后续二育进场的节奏，宜防范现货情绪好转后盘 面补基差的反弹风险。对于远端合约，整体上继续关注反弹卖空机会。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 后期供应趋紧 震荡偏多对待 玉米 2025 年 05 月 25 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，全球主要生产国玉米播种面积较上年增加，其中美国产量增 加尤为明显，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境。国内方 面，目前基层余粮基本售尽，同时进口玉米及替代性谷物收缩，国内玉米供应偏 紧，贸易持粮主体基于后期偏紧的预期有一定惜售心态。需求端来看，随着养殖 业规模的恢复，饲料产量同比增加明显。但由于小麦对玉米的价差偏低，小麦部 分进入饲料领域，使得饲料中玉米使用比例下降，削弱了饲料产量增加对玉米需 求的拉动效果。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外部贸易环境复杂、居民收入 增速放缓等多重要不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差，深加工利润不佳，行业开 机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。库存方面，目前南北方港口库存开始下降，库 存压力也在减轻。总体来看，后期玉米市场供应趋紧，下方面支撑较为坚实，但 小麦玉米价差偏低、陈稻拍卖及进口放松预期仍会压制玉米的上方空间。操作上， 震荡偏多思路。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）月报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 低位盘整 持续震荡 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 5 月 25 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2507，2025 年 5 月 22 日收于 123540 元/吨，本月 镍价整体呈震荡走势。 宏观层面，当地时间 5 月 10 日至 11 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总 理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举 行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年 1 月 17 日中美元首通话重要共识进行 了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。当地时间 5 月 12 日上午 9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发 言人就此发表谈话。美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，修改 2025 年 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令对中国商品加征的 34%的对等关税，其中 24%的关税暂 停加征 90 天 ...