研究所 旺季持续累库 热卷压力较大 ----国信期货热卷周报 2025年10月12日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 热卷主力合约走势 本周热卷主力合约短线窄幅震荡，延续弱势。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 现货弱势震荡。 1.2 热卷现货走势 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 品类 数值 01基差 64 05基差 69 10基差 -20 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].

研究所 上市逐步增加 玉米偏弱运行 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年10月10日 研究所 假期后两个交易日，玉米期货震荡偏弱运行，近远月价差走低。现货长假期间下跌明显，各地都有不同程度走弱，东北产区上 市压力开始体现，下跌幅度较大。北港现货下跌明显，对盘面基差大幅走弱。基本面来看，新作玉米增产预期较强，加之成本 下降，对市场心理形成一定压制。目前东北主产区玉米即将进入集中收割期，上市压力会明显上升，同时，华北黄淮等区域的 新粮也将陆续投放市场，新玉米供应有放量之势。需求端来看，鸡蛋、生猪价格大幅走弱，养殖利润恶化，饲料需求预期不佳 ；深加工利润仍然较差，开机率也维持低位。用粮企业在下游消费不乐观的情景下，维持低库存策略，短期需求利多不足。不 过，由于进口替代性谷物有限及小麦-玉米价差再度走高，后期用粮企业补库需求仍是潜在支撑因素。从估值来看，目前盘面 贴水，且逼近新作集港成本，预计玉米期货随着供应压力逐步上升维持震荡偏弱格局，但继续下行空间不大。操作上，短线交 易。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the opening of the two trading days saw a significant decline in live hog futures, with the main contract LH2511 dropping by 8.38%. The high supply pressure led to a sharp weakening of hog prices. In the short - term, the group farms' October slaughter plan increased significantly month - on - month, while smallholders may resist low prices and enter a phase of withholding hogs for sale, which could bring a window for a phased rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the increasing willingness to cull sows is beneficial for reducing future supply pressure. For futures, maintain a bearish view on the near - end contracts and pay attention to potential long - trading opportunities on the far - end contracts [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - After the holiday, live hog futures dropped significantly due to increased hog slaughter during the holiday, a sharp decline in the spot market, and a previously high premium in the futures market. As of Friday, the national average hog price dropped to 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.04 yuan/kg from before the holiday. In the future, the high hog slaughter volume within the year will limit the upside of hog prices. In the short - term, group farms plan to increase slaughter in October, while smallholders may withhold hogs after some inventory release. The increasing spread between fat and standard hogs and the expected consumption peak may bring a phased rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the increasing willingness to cull sows is beneficial for future supply [7]. 3.2. Live Hog Futures Market No detailed content provided other than the decline data of the main contract LH2511. 3.3. Live Hog Spot Market - The table shows the weekly changes in the average hog prices in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Henan, with a general downward trend [16]. 3.4. Live Hog Spot: Fat - Standard Hog Price Spread No relevant content provided. 3.5. Changes in Reproductive Sows No relevant content provided. 3.6. Changes in Piglets No relevant content provided. 3.7. Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed Correlation No relevant content provided. 3.8. Live Hog Slaughter Situation No relevant content provided. 3.9. Live Hog Slaughtering Situation No relevant content provided. 3.10. Pork Consumption Situation No relevant content provided. 3.11. Frozen Meat Market Dynamics No relevant content provided. 3.12. Cost and Profit No relevant content provided. 3.13. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, the national level does not start temporary reserve purchases for the third - level warning, may start for the second - level warning, and starts for the first - level warning. Local conditions are similar. In case of excessive price increases, for market cyclical fluctuations, central reserve releases start for the second - level warning and increase for the first - level warning. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level warning, releases are concentrated in key periods [68]. 3.14. Multi - Caliber Comparison No relevant content provided.

研究所 印尼生柴消息利好 油脂偏强震荡 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年10月10日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 0 5 0 100 150 200 250 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 3 1 3 3 3 5 3 7 3 9 4 1 4 3 4 5 4 7 4 9 5 1 1、美国市场—美豆出口情况 研究所 美豆当周检验数量 美豆本年度销售 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆震荡收涨，技术性买盘的支持。周初CBOT大豆震荡走高，交易商在等待中美高层月底会晤及美国政府农民援助计划的消息，这些因素可能为大豆市场提供新 的需求动力。 由于美国政府自10月1日以来持续停摆，美国农业部原计划周四和周五发布的出口销售周度报告以及供需月报将暂停发布，这使得市场短期内缺乏官方数据指引。周四美豆高位 回落，主要因多头获利平仓、技术性抛盘活跃以及对中美贸易担忧加剧的影响。节后国内豆粕高开低走，一方面美豆回落，巴西大豆升贴水下调 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak US crude oil demand and concerns about global supply surplus, international oil prices experienced continuous weak and volatile adjustments in Q3. However, the Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut in September, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities, and the EU's plan to increase sanctions on Russia limit the further decline of international oil prices. Technically, US WTI crude oil prices may rebound with volatility [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - International oil prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment in Q3 due to weak US demand and concerns about supply surplus. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 decided that producers will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October. The market was caught off - guard by the plan to resume the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October after the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut, which had a negative impact on the oil market. After September, the peak oil demand season ended and refinery maintenance increased, further suppressing oil prices [1][5]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand - OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand forecast and slightly raises the 2026 forecast. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA reports that global oil inventories are surging at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap is widening as supply expands and demand growth slows. The IEA raises the daily supply increments of OPEC and its allies for this year and next by 370,000 barrels and 520,000 barrels respectively [7]. - The OPEC+ decision on September 7 has a negative impact on the oil market, and future production plans are uncertain. As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil daily production was 13.501 million barrels, up 19,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of US online drilling oil wells reached 424 as of the week ending September 26, the highest since July [10][12]. - US refinery operating rates decreased slightly, but crude oil processing volume increased. As of the week ending September 19, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased moderately, and gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries may change global trade flows [2][16]. China's Crude Oil Supply - Demand - China is the world's largest oil importer and the second - largest oil consumer. In 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased steadily. In August, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, up 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, up 7.6% year - on - year. From January to August, China imported 376 million tons of crude oil, up 2.5% year - on - year. Russia is China's largest source of crude oil imports [22]. - As of September 24, the operating load of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In the future, the operating load may first decline and then rise, and the supply of gasoline and diesel will fluctuate accordingly [24]. 3. Technical Analysis - In Q3, US WTI crude oil futures prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment at a low level. Since September, WTI crude oil futures have shown strong support at around $60 per barrel, and prices may rebound with volatility [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the RU2601 contract oscillating between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract between 11,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber BR main contract between 11,000 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [1][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter of this year, rubber prices generally showed a pattern of rising and then falling. In July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy in China, rubber prices rose. Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand also boosted market sentiment, but prices dropped after the conflict ended. In August, prices fluctuated within a narrow range due to a decline in tire enterprise operating rates. In September, prices declined again due to weak demand, high semi - steel tire inventory, and the approaching peak production season [3] 2. Industrial Structure Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Since September, raw material production in the Xishuangbanna area has gradually increased, but recent rainfall has made raw material release unstable. Typhoon "Hikaa" affected Hainan in late September, limiting rubber production, but the impact was limited. Some areas in Thailand's main production regions are still affected by rainfall, with slow and unstable raw material release. As the market declined, raw material purchase prices weakened, but the low inventory of rubber factories supported the bottom of the cup - rubber purchase price. Upstream processing plants have high production costs and lack processing profits [5] - The global rubber production capacity is still in an increasing cycle. Although the growth rate of newly opened - up areas has slowed down since 2020, the production capacity remains large. In 2020, production decreased due to the pandemic and weather factors, and the marginal output has been declining since 2021. ANRPC predicts that in July 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption will drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. For the first 7 months, cumulative production is expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption will decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [7][8] - According to QinRex data, in the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [9] 2.2 Midstream - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase [11] - As of the week of September 25, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts was 153,570 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The total inventory of 20 - number rubber futures warehouse receipts was 44,756 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons [11] - As of the week of September 19, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 4.537 million tons, a 0.94% decrease. The inventory in the bonded area was 71,100 tons, a 6.32% decrease, while the general trade inventory was 382,600 tons, a 0.13% increase [11] 2.3 Downstream - As of the week of September 25, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 65.04%, the same as the previous week and 8.7% higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.52%, the same as the previous week but 4.27% lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises are facing pressure on inventory due to slow export order delivery and weak domestic demand [15] - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% increase, and the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase [17] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, China's automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In August 2025, heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to August, heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase, and annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [25] - At the end of August 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China was 10.19 million pieces (from 25 monitored sample enterprises), a slight decrease from the end of July. The total inventory of semi - steel tires was 18.53 million pieces, also a slight decrease from the end of July [26] 3. Future Outlook - Supply side: Currently, heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects rubber tapping, leading to tight raw material output. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, the main domestic distribution hub, continues to decline. In the long term, the aging of rubber trees in Indonesia and Malaysia will lead to a decline in future production [31] - Demand side: The improvement in the downstream tire market is limited. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories has weakened, and the spot trading pace has slowed, reducing the support for natural rubber prices. The inventory of semi - steel tire products remains high, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has been declining this year [31] - Technical side: In the short term, rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the fundamentals are not optimistic. Supply pressure and high inventory are the key factors suppressing prices, and there are no signs of a turnaround in the short term. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [3][67]. - For glass, the fundamentals are neutral. Policy and news have a significant impact on the FG2601 contract. The glass futures price in the fourth quarter may show a volatile trend, with the price center likely to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [4][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Soda Ash - In Q1 2025, the soda ash price fluctuated, with a decline in the second half of December due to factory maintenance and a rebound later as enterprises resumed production. In February, the price first dropped and then rebounded. In March, the price fell despite improved fundamentals [6]. - In Q2 2025, the soda ash price showed a smooth downward trend due to increased supply and slower demand growth [7]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose and then fell. In July, the price increased with the rise of coking coal futures. In August, supply reached a historical high and demand was weak, leading to a price drop. In September, the price fluctuated, and it was relatively firm before the National Day due to downstream restocking [7]. Glass - In Q1 2025, the glass futures price trended downward. In January, the futures were weak but the spot price rebounded. In February, the price continued to decline due to high inventory and slow recovery of processing enterprises. In March, the price first dropped to a low and then rebounded, but it couldn't be sustained [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, the glass futures price showed a smooth downward trend due to poor macro - environment and low real - estate demand. In June, the price rebounded due to the rise of coal prices [10]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and then fell back. In September, the price rebounded with the arrival of the consumption peak season [10]. 3.2 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis Price and Spread - In Q3 2025, the spot price of soda ash in various regions first rose and then fell, and the futures price also showed a similar trend. The spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, and the basis decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [13]. Profit, Production, and Capacity Utilization - By September 25, 2025, the ammonia - soda production profit was - 37.2 yuan/ton, and the combined - soda production profit was - 77.5 yuan/ton, both showing a decline compared to the end of June. However, the capacity utilization rate remained high, above 80% in Q3 and above 85% in September. The weekly production was mostly above 700,000 tons, and the monthly production in September increased compared to August [17]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9515 million tons, a decrease of 115,400 tons compared to the end of June. The light - soda inventory was 729,100 tons, a decrease of 76,100 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory was 922,400 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was digested faster after August due to the rebound of the photovoltaic glass market and the ignition of some float glass production lines [22]. Future Capacity Expansion Plan - In the first half of 2025, new capacities of Lianyungang Alkali Plant and Hubei Shuanghuan were put into production. In the second half, there are still 3.5 million tons of capacity to be put into operation, including the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy, which was successfully ignited on September 19 and entered the commissioning stage [27]. Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: In Q3 2025, the spot price of float glass in most regions rose, but it decreased in Guangdong. The futures price also rose and then fell. The production profit of glass enterprises improved. The daily melting volume increased to 160,200 tons, and the enterprise inventory decreased. However, the deep - processing enterprise operating rate declined, and the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [29][32][33]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In Q3 2025, the photovoltaic glass price rebounded, and the daily melting volume reached 88,800 tons after a rebound. The enterprise inventory days decreased to 14.16 days. The domestic photovoltaic component installation volume and export volume showed different trends. The installation volume declined after May, and the export volume increased in August but is likely to decline after September [48][54]. - **Light - Soda Demand**: The demand for light soda is relatively stable. The PPI of glass products continued to decline, the production of synthetic detergents decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate increased steadily [60]. 3.3 Outlook and Trading Recommendations - For soda ash, the supply surplus problem may worsen in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [67]. - For glass, the daily melting volume may remain stable with possible short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the US soybean market faces dual impacts of yield and exports. Yield reduction is likely, but the extent is uncertain. The outcome of China-US economic and trade talks in November will significantly affect US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are expected to continue to oscillate in a wide range between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [1][22][113]. - South American soybean exports and planting progress may impact the international soybean market in the fourth quarter. Brazilian soybean exports to China may range from 1000 - 1200 million tons. Brazilian basis fluctuations are crucial, and the possibility of a "dry south and wet north" situation due to La Nina should be monitored [23][37][113]. - Although the arrival of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, supply concerns may ease with effective supply supplements. Domestic soybean meal demand is expected to increase steadily, and inventory reduction may start in November. The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [1][54][113]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of the US soybean oil market is expected to increase significantly, and the inventory will increase steadily. The market is waiting for the implementation of energy policies, and the downward space for US soybean oil may narrow [2][67][114]. - Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend in the fourth quarter. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in October. Export may be temporarily affected, but the tight supply - demand balance sheet of Indonesian palm oil provides support [2][85][114]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand differentiation of domestic oils is prominent. The supply of soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [2][111][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In the third quarter, CBOT soybeans showed a range - bound oscillation, with a reverse "N" shape. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. International oils showed a differentiated trend, with US soybean oil rising and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil rising [5][6]. - From June 30 to September 25, 2025, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil declined, while Malaysian palm oil, Dalian soybean oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil prices increased [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Protein Meal 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Uncertain Supply - Demand Pattern Due to Poor Exports - The yield of US soybeans may be adjusted downward in the USDA report after October, and the export situation depends on China - US economic and trade talks. If China restarts purchasing US soybeans, exports may remain stable; otherwise, they may be further reduced [11][14][18]. - US soybean crushing remains strong, but the room for further increase in crushing volume is limited, and the 2025/26 annual crushing demand is likely to remain at the current level [16][17]. 3.2.2 South American Soybeans: Increased Market Turbulence Due to Export and Weather - In 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record high of 110 million tons. Argentina's soybean export policy is volatile, and the possibility of a second export tax cancellation cannot be ruled out [23][27][30]. - The probability of La Nina occurring from October to December has increased, which may lead to a "dry south and wet north" situation. Brazil's soybean planting has started, but there are weather risks in some areas [32][33]. - Brazilian basis is affected by China - US tariff policies. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian basis may decline; otherwise, it may rise [36][37]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal: Supply Concerns May Ease, but Cost - Driven Factors Remain - With the increase in Argentine soybean imports, the supply of domestic soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to increase, and supply concerns may ease [40]. - Domestic soybean meal demand has increased steadily, but there is a suspicion of over - consuming future demand. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and inventory reduction may start in November [45][48]. - The basis of soybean meal may recover from a low level in November, and the fluctuation range of the January contract of Dalian soybean meal may be between 2850 - 3200 yuan per ton [49][54]. 3.3 Third Part: Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil: Awaiting Policy Implementation with Uncertain Policy Outlook - The demand for US soybean oil has remained high in 2025, but the implementation of biodiesel policies in October is crucial for future demand [59][61]. - From October, US soybean oil will enter an inventory - building cycle, and the inventory will increase steadily [61]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil: Early Entry into Production Reduction Cycle, Supply Concerns Boost the Market - In the fourth quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil will transition to a production reduction cycle. Excessive rainfall may cause an early start of the production reduction cycle in Malaysia [70][75]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil is uncertain due to India's increased purchase of Argentine soybean oil. However, Indonesia's tight supply - demand balance sheet provides support [77][79]. - In the fourth quarter, the Southeast Asian palm oil market will enter a de - stocking stage, and Malaysian palm oil may experience a seasonal upward trend [84][85]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oils: Supply - Demand Structure Differentiation, Accelerated Rapeseed Oil Inventory Reduction - As of September 20, the inventory of domestic oils has not yet started to decline. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of oils is relatively abundant, but there are significant differences among varieties [88]. - Domestic oil demand has declined. In the fourth quarter, the demand for oils may enter a small peak, but expectations should not be too high [91]. - The supply of domestic soybean oil may decline in October, and the inventory inflection point may occur at the end of the year. Palm oil inventory will accumulate significantly, while rapeseed oil inventory reduction will accelerate [95][100][108]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - The conclusions are consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the uncertainties and trends in the protein meal and oil markets in the fourth quarter [113][114][115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The apparent inventory-to-sales ratio of the industrial silicon industry in Q3 has dropped below 200%. In Q4, the industrial silicon price may fluctuate in the range of (8,000, 10,000) yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to possible supply-side policy impacts [2][81]. - Since 2025, the polysilicon futures price has fluctuated. In Q4, if the supply side can actively contract, the polysilicon price may be supported; otherwise, the supply-demand imbalance will worsen, and the price may decline. The estimated fluctuation range for Q4 is (45,000, 58,000) yuan/ton [3][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market Review - **Industrial Silicon**: In Q1, the futures price initially rose, then declined after the news of the resumption of production by leading northwest factories. In Q2, the price dropped due to cost reduction during the wet season. In July, the price rebounded significantly, followed by a quick correction and then entered a volatile state [5][6]. - **Polysilicon**: In Q1, the spot price was stable, but the futures price started to decline in March. From April to June, the price dropped sharply, then rebounded in July due to anti - involution policies, and maintained a relatively strong volatile state in August and September [8][10]. 2. Silicon Industry Chain Fundamental Analysis (1) Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - In 2025, the industrial silicon futures - spot basis was mostly positive. In September, the basis of 4210 entered the negative range, and the positive futures - spot arbitrage window opened for nearly a month, which may increase the number of warehouse receipts [13]. (2) Industrial Silicon Industry Cost and Element Changes - The average production cost of the industrial silicon industry has been decreasing since 2025, from 12,146.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 9,093.28 yuan/ton. After Q3, the coal price rebounded, but the average cost remained stable at around 9,000 yuan/ton. The future cost may be mainly affected by electricity, with the overall average cost gradually increasing, while the cost in the northwest may change little [16][19]. (3) Industrial Silicon Production Enterprises - From January to July 2025, the average production profit of the industrial silicon industry was negative, and the开工率 was compressed. After the wet season, the开工 rate increased. The output in August reached 370,000 tons, may rise to about 420,000 tons in September, and is likely to remain high in October, then decrease in November and December [24]. (4) Downstream Demand: Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Changes**: Since the listing of polysilicon futures, the basis has fluctuated greatly. In H1 2025, the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules generally declined, with a slight rebound in March - April. After July, the prices of silicon wafers and cells rebounded significantly, while the component price was under pressure in Q3 and is expected to continue to be so in Q4 [28][30]. - **Production Situation**: In H1 2025, the average production profit of the polysilicon industry was negative, and the开工率 was low. After July, the profit and开工率 increased rapidly. The production profit of silicon wafers and cells improved in Q3, but the profitability in Q4 may not be optimistic. The output of silicon wafers and cells in September was about 58GW and 55GW respectively, and there is a possibility of a decline in November and December [34][40]. - **Terminal Demand Expectation**: From January to August 2025, the domestic new installed capacity of photovoltaic modules increased year - on - year, but the monthly installed capacity declined significantly after June. The export demand was low from January to July, but increased in August. After September, the export demand is likely to decline [45][47]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of polysilicon reached 265,780 tons. The downstream silicon wafers and cells enterprises maintained low inventories, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased in September [49]. (5) Downstream Demand: Organic Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Profit**: In 2025, the organic silicon price generally declined, with a short - term rebound in February - March. The industry's production profit was mostly negative, and the average gross margin was about - 17% at the end of September [53]. - **Production and Demand**: The开工率 of organic silicon enterprises was low in H1 2025 and increased in July - August. The inventory of organic silicon enterprises remained stable, mainly due to the expansion of the electronics industry and the adjustment of the开工率 [60][64]. (6) Downstream Demand: Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: In 2025, the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the price fluctuated mainly driven by the aluminum price. The output increased significantly year - on - year, but the profit was poor. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry increased steadily [67]. - **Export**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 491,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The export volume increased significantly after June [74]. (7) Industrial Silicon Inventory - In 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was initially high, but the apparent inventory started to decline after May. After July, the total futures - spot inventory remained around 690,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises increased [77]. 3. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: In Q4, the apparent inventory - to - sales ratio may increase compared to Q3 but may not reach the level of Q2. The price may fluctuate in the range of (8,000, 10,000) yuan/ton [81]. - **Polysilicon**: In Q4, the adjustment of the polysilicon enterprises'开工率 will have a significant impact on the price. The estimated fluctuation range is (45,000, 58,000) yuan/ton [83].