1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the import volume of pulp is expected to tighten, and the supply of softwood pulp will be significantly tightened. The downstream paper mills are mainly focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with general procurement enthusiasm. The pulp market trading will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, and the spot price of imported softwood pulp may rise. However, the domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, with great de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near the previous low, and consider light - position trial long if the market stabilizes [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the main contract SP2605 of pulp futures first declined and then rose. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic port inventory was still at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking rhythm was slow. Affected by the weak terminal consumption demand and some paper enterprises' early holidays, the pre - holiday stocking had limited impact on demand. The short - sellers added positions, causing the market to decline. After the Spring Festival, the procurement of downstream paper enterprises gradually started, the pulp market trading will gradually recover. Affected by the financial attributes of the product, the spot price of imported softwood pulp may rise. The short - sellers reduced positions, and the market rebounded following the industrial product sector [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Expected Tightening of Softwood Pulp Imports - China has a high external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In 2025, the cumulative pulp import volume was 36.038 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 2.4% compared with the previous year. In 2026, the pulp import volume is expected to tighten. In January 2026, the exports of softwood and hardwood pulp from Brazil to China decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of softwood, hardwood, and unbleached pulp from Chile to China showed different trends. Large pulp mills may permanently shut down production capacity or reduce production, and the supply of softwood pulp in 2026 is expected to be significantly tightened [12][13] 3.2.2 Decline in European Port Inventory and Gradual Recovery of Overseas Demand - In January 2026, the consumption and inventory of European chemical pulp decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days remained the same as last year. The European wood pulp port inventory is slowly declining, and the overseas wood pulp demand may show a slow recovery trend. Against the background of the merger wave in the European paper industry, the pulp outer - market quotation is firm [16] 3.2.3 Continuous Increase in Outer - Market Quotations - The outer - market price of imported hardwood pulp has been rebounding since August 2025 and continued to rise in February 2026. The import cost has a strong support for the domestic price. As of February 26, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp and hardwood pulp increased compared with the previous week before the Spring Festival [19] 3.2.4 Slow Resumption of Work in Downstream Paper Mills and Increasing Import Cost Pressure - The outer - market quotations of softwood and hardwood pulp are continuously strong, increasing the production cost of downstream paper enterprises. The increase in the price of downstream base paper is weak, squeezing the enterprise profit and suppressing the procurement willingness for high - price raw materials. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival, the operating load rates of various paper types decreased. The downstream paper mills are mainly focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with general procurement enthusiasm and slow resumption of work, which drags down the increase of the actual order price of hardwood pulp [23][25] 3.2.5 Increase in Domestic Main Port Inventory and Still at a High Level - As of February 26, 2026, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port increased by 13.30% compared with the previous week before the Spring Festival, turning from a decline to an increase. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, with great de - stocking pressure, waiting for the recovery of demand [29] 3.3 Future Outlook - The supply side shows that the pulp import volume is expected to tighten in 2026. The demand side shows that the operating load rates of downstream paper types decreased due to the Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream paper mills is general, and the resumption of work is slow. The supply of softwood pulp is expected to be significantly tightened, the outer - market quotation is firm, and the pulp market trading will gradually recover after the Spring Festival. The spot price of imported softwood pulp may rise, but the domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level, with great de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near the previous low, and consider light - position trial long if the market stabilizes [31][32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the future, and the recommended operation is to sell high and buy low within the range. This is because the supply of high - quality apples is tight due to the decline in the excellent fruit rate, providing strong support at the bottom, while the demand is restricted, limiting the upward momentum [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the main contract AP2605 of apple futures showed a strong - running and high - level oscillation. The postponed Spring Festival increased the stocking time, boosting the market during the festival. However, the postponed Spring Festival also narrowed the later sales window, causing the market to fall sharply after the festival. The limited quantity of high - quality apples provided some support and narrowed the decline [7]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Tight Supply of High - quality Apples - As of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 4.9448 million tons, 308,900 tons lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong had about 2.0859 million tons, Shaanxi about 1.2827 million tons, and non - main producing areas about 1.5762 million tons. The proportion of high - quality apples was low, and that of poor - quality apples was high. After the festival, cold - storage in Shandong and Shaanxi resumed packaging, and in Gansu, high - quality apples were sold well before the festival, with a slight price increase [11]. 3.2.2 Cold - storage Resumed Operation after the Festival with Good Sales Speed - As of February 26, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio was about 37.33%, 2.45 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From February 12 - 25, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.81 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 32.79%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 42.48%, decreasing by 1.99 percentage points in two weeks, with general transactions and more small - fruit orders from foreign trade. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 33.76%, decreasing by 3.19 percentage points in two weeks, with limited transactions due to the shortage of high - quality apples. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 31.68%, decreasing by 3.83 percentage points in two weeks, with high purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality apples [17]. 3.2.3 Increase in Fresh Apple Imports in December - China's fresh apple imports are mainly from countries like New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. In December 2025, the import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. Due to the decline in the new - season apple production and quality, the import demand is expected to increase, but the import scale is expected to remain at the current level as the annual import volume accounts for less than 1% of the national production [20]. 3.2.4 Peak Season for Apple Exports with Rising Export Volume - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In December 2025, the export volume was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [25]. 3.2.5 Citrus Season Affects Apple Demand - In recent years, the overall fruit harvest and imported fruits have increased market choices. Citrus, which is on the market from November to March, competes with apples during the Spring Festival. The large supply and low price of citrus impact the downstream demand for apples. In February, fruit prices were at a high level, and the large supply of alternative fruits like citrus at low prices affected the terminal consumption demand for apples [27][30]. 3.2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Apple prices have obvious seasonality. The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by the end of inventory clearance, the reduction of seasonal fruits, and festival stocking. November and December are driven by new - fruit supply and festival effects. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and the decline in inventory apple quality. August faces challenges such as the impact of seasonal fruits, the listing of early - maturing apples, and the decline in inventory apple quality. October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the similar listing period of pears [36][37][38]. 3.2.7 Price Differentiation of Apples with Different Qualities - As of February 26, 2026, in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples was stable, with different price ranges for different grades. Due to the decline in production and quality, the price of high - quality apples remained high, while the price of low - quality apples declined. The price difference between large and small fruits may further widen during the cold - storage sales stage, and the far - month futures contracts may remain strong [41]. 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, as of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 4.9448 million tons, lower than the same period last year, with a low proportion of high - quality apples. On the demand side, the cold - storage inventory ratio was lower than the same period last year, and the de - stocking rate was 32.79%. Different - quality apple markets showed obvious differentiation. The cold - storage resumed operation earlier than usual but later than last year. The shortage of high - quality apples due to the decline in the excellent fruit rate led to high purchasing enthusiasm, while the high proportion of poor - quality apples faced a narrowing sales window. Limited by demand, the upward momentum is limited, but strong support exists at the bottom due to the excellent fruit rate problem. The apple futures are expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low within the range [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the US soybean market enters the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year remain the focus of the market. The increase in Chinese purchases and the improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations may boost US soybean exports. The crushing demand is still strong, and the tight inventory situation may support the futures price. The CBOT soybean may fluctuate around 1150 cents per bushel and may rise to 1200 cents per bushel [32][94]. - The implementation of multiple biodiesel policies in the US soybean oil market in March is crucial. If the policies are favorable, the strong expectation may turn into strong reality, and soybean oil prices may continue to rise. Otherwise, it may face a decline [48][94]. - For the Malaysian palm oil market, high inventory restricts price increases. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level. When the inventory drops below 2.4 million tons, prices may rise. In March, production may recover significantly, and the reduction of inventory depends on the increase in Indian imports [65][95]. - In March, the domestic oil inventory may increase steadily but with limited recovery. The supply of domestic soybean oil may improve in March and increase significantly in April. Palm oil inventory may remain at a relatively high level, and rapeseed oil inventory may change little due to policy uncertainties. The increase in domestic oil inventory in March may mainly rely on soybean oil [3][92][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In February, CBOT soybean oil rose significantly due to positive biodiesel policy expectations, rising international crude oil prices, and active fund buying. The US Treasury's 45Z proposed rules and the EPA's submission of the 2026 biofuel mandate boosted market sentiment. In contrast, Malaysian palm oil was weak, with declining export data and high inventory [9]. - Domestic oils fluctuated within a range, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising slightly following international oils, but the increase was much lower than that of the external market. Palm oil's weak performance dragged down the domestic oil market [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Oils 3.2.1 US Soybean Inventory and Market Outlook - The USDA did not adjust US soybean exports in the February supply - demand report. Although the year - on - year export sales decreased, the sales progress was in line with expectations. However, the export shipment progress was slow, and future exports may change due to factors such as tariff policies and Chinese purchases [13][14]. - The NOPA's January soybean crushing volume was high, and the crushing demand is the main force of US soybean demand. The crushing profit has continued to recover, and the crushing demand will remain strong [20][23]. - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase, but there are differences in the market's expectations. If the weather is normal, the yield is expected to increase, and the inventory in the 26/27 year may increase slightly. In the short - term, the US soybean market may maintain a strong and volatile trend [24][29]. 3.2.2 US Biodiesel Policy and Soybean Oil Market - The US biodiesel policy has not been implemented, and the consumption of US soybean oil has not increased as expected. The USDA expects the industrial consumption of US soybean oil to increase significantly in the 25/26 year [33]. - The US Treasury issued the proposed rules for biofuel tax credits in February, and the EPA is expected to finalize the biofuel blending quota rules by the end of March, which may bring positive support to US soybean oil [41]. - Currently, the supply of US soybean oil has increased significantly, but the demand growth is not obvious, and the inventory has reached a four - year high. The implementation of biodiesel policies in March is the key to the future trend of soybean oil [46][48]. 3.2.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Market - February and March are the transition months from the production - reduction to the production - increase cycle for Southeast Asian palm oil. In March, Malaysian palm oil production may increase significantly. In February, production and exports both decreased, and the inventory decline may be less than expected. In March, production and exports may both increase [51][56]. - High inventory restricts the rise of Malaysian palm oil prices. When the inventory drops below 2.4 million tons, prices may rise. The increase in Indian imports is crucial for inventory reduction [65][69]. - The production of Indonesian palm oil may decline, and the implementation of the B40 biodiesel plan has led to a continuous decline in inventory. The change of Indonesian policies may bring opportunities to the market [63]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Market - As of February 21, the domestic inventory of the three major vegetable oils decreased compared with the previous month. In March, the domestic oil supply is expected to increase, and it will be more abundant in April [71]. - The domestic soybean oil inventory has declined, and the demand may increase steadily in March. The supply may improve in March and increase significantly in April, and the inventory may remain stable with limited increase [76][77]. - The domestic palm oil inventory has remained at a relatively high level. Due to high prices and import losses, the market mainly makes rigid purchases, and the inventory may remain stable [79][83]. - The domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. In March, the supply may recover, but the inventory repair is limited. The market is waiting for the relaxation of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations to increase supply [86][90]. 3.3 Fourth Part: Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In the international market, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are affected by policies and demand. The Malaysian palm oil market is restricted by inventory. In the domestic market, the inventory may increase steadily, mainly relying on soybean oil [94][97]. - Operationally, adopt a strategy of buying on dips for oils, as there are opportunities for phased price increases. Or use a double - selling options strategy based on the wide - range oscillation idea [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) continuing to rise is relatively high. The supply in the new year is tightening, the commercial inventory has turned downward, and the reduction in the comprehensive tariff calculation has boosted exports. However, two major risks should be noted: the implementation of the new US tariff policy may change the global cotton trade pattern, and the continuous increase in Brazilian cotton supply may suppress the upward movement of the outer - market prices, and the large price difference between the inner and outer markets will limit the upward space of Zhengmian. [1][30] - The USDA February supply - demand monthly report has a bearish impact, but the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, demand to increase, and ending inventory to decline in the new year. The market is waiting for a clear signal from the demand side, and the overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, Zhengmian fluctuated slightly and then broke through to the upside. After the Spring Festival, boosted by international market news, it broke through the previous trading range and reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton. [3] - The international cotton market first declined and then rose in February. At the beginning of February, US cotton was weak, reaching a minimum of 62.86 cents/pound. After the USDA outlook forum released a tightening forecast for the new - year international cotton market supply - demand situation and the weak US dollar provided support, US cotton rose to a maximum of 66.38 cents/pound. [3] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Commercial and Industrial Inventory - In January 2026, the domestic cotton inventory showed the characteristics of "commercial de - stocking and industrial restocking", with a more prominent differentiation in the inventory structure. As of February 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from 5.7887 million tons on January 31. The de - stocking pace in Xinjiang was significantly faster than that in the inland. The industrial inventory increased moderately from 1.001 million tons at the end of January to 1.0292 million tons in the first half of February. [6] 3.2.2 Price Difference between Domestic and International Cotton - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has been widening with a pattern of "strong domestic and weak international". As of February 25, the duty - paid cost of medium - quality imported cotton within the quota (1% tariff) was about 12,782 yuan/ton, 3,547 yuan/ton lower than the price of domestic 3128B cotton. The duty - paid cost of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was about 13,840 yuan/ton, 2,489 yuan/ton lower than domestic cotton, and the price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. The expected decrease in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the impact of Brazilian cotton exports on the outer - market, and the strong purchasing intention of domestic textile enterprises after the Spring Festival are the main driving factors. The price difference expansion has opened the import profit window, and China's cotton imports in the 2026/27 season are expected to increase to 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0%. In the short term, the increase in imported cotton arrivals may suppress the upward movement of the inner - market, but in the long - term, the price difference is expected to narrow to within 2,000 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.3 Downstream Market - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic textile enterprises was in an orderly manner, with the start - up rate showing the characteristics of "leading in Xinjiang, following in East China, and lagging in South China". As of February 20, the start - up rate of textile enterprises was 18.7%, and as of February 13, the start - up rate of weaving enterprises was 14%. The release of downstream demand needs to be verified. Spinning enterprises are still cautious in restocking, and the "peak season" orders in March and April have not been fully realized. The finished product inventory of weaving enterprises has increased, and the inventory of weaving enterprises is at the second - highest level in five years. [13][15] 3.2.4 Tariff Policy - Since January 2026, the US tariff policy on Chinese textile and clothing has improved marginally, with the comprehensive tariff level dropping from 18.2% to 15.7%, covering intermediate products such as pure cotton yarn and grey cloth and household textile products, which directly reduces the export cost of enterprises. In the long run, the improvement of the tariff policy is expected to increase the export amount of cotton textiles in 2026, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the release of production capacity of Southeast Asian competitors may still restrict the recovery of exports. [18] 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Report - The USDA February supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 92,000 tons to 26.096 million tons, consumption decreased by 44,000 tons to 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136,000 tons to 16.353 million tons. The core change in the supply side is concentrated in China, and the main feature on the demand side is the reduction in consumption in Pakistan. [22] 3.3.2 US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the predicted total export volume for the year (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the total signed volume for the year. The signing volume has declined slightly, with a significant decline in Vietnam's signing, while signing in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan has continued to grow. The overall shipment rhythm is stable. The signing and shipment of Pima cotton have remained stable, and the cumulative signing progress is currently slow, but it is expected to accelerate in the future. [25] 3.3.3 US Trade Policy - Since 2025, the US has shifted its textile and clothing trade policy towards South Asia from high - pressure suppression to targeted concessions and raw - material binding, aiming to reshape the global cotton - textile supply chain centered on US cotton. In February 2026, the US reached tariff agreements with Bangladesh and India, reducing the benchmark tariff rate and setting up a zero - tariff mechanism for using US cotton, which will significantly enhance the export competitiveness of South Asian textiles, lock in the long - term demand for US cotton, and weaken the substitution space of Indian and Brazilian cotton. [29] 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - For the domestic market, Zhengmian is likely to continue rising. Operators are advised to make long - term layouts based on the fundamentals, pay attention to the progress of domestic resumption of work, US cotton export sales data, and the implementation of tariff policies. The main operation idea is to buy on dips, with the upper - limit pressure reference at 16,000 yuan/ton. [1][30] - For the international market, although the USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengmian. [2][30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the lower production estimate in India provides short - term support, but India's domestic supply remains ample and sugar prices are low. Brazil's old - crop production is almost finished, and the sugar - making ratio is a key factor. The raw sugar price may return to around 14 cents per pound due to short - term positive factors [2][19]. - In the domestic market, the fundamental pressure is high. The overall sugar production is in line with expectations, sales in Guangxi are significantly behind, and processed sugar suppresses the market. The estimated sugar imports in January increased year - on - year. Although there is a high expectation of import quota tightening, there is no official confirmation. Zhengzhou sugar may run stronger under policy expectations, but its upside is limited [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract reached a maximum of 5338 yuan/ton. Despite being in the traditional off - season, positive expectations for import policies and rising overseas markets helped it break through the 5300 yuan/ton resistance [5]. - In February, the international sugar price first declined and then rebounded. The initial supply pressure pushed the price down to a minimum of 13.34 cents per pound, but the downward - adjusted production estimate in India provided short - term support, and the price rebounded to around 14 cents per pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 60164.4 million tons, a 2.16% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.74%, a 2.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 4024 million tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase [7]. - For the 2026/27 season, although the proportion of cane used for sugar production will decrease, the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is still expected to reach 4050 million tons, remaining flat compared to the previous year. The market believes that only when the ethanol - to - sugar price stabilizes above 18 cents per pound will there be a significant impact on the decrease of the sugar - making ratio [7]. 3.2.2 India - As of February 15, 2026, India's sugar production was 2250.6 million tons, higher than 1976.5 million tons in the same period last year. The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season is about 3240 million tons, with about 310 million tons diverted to ethanol production, and the net sugar production is about 2930 million tons (a 12% increase compared to the previous year) [10]. - In Uttar Pradesh, due to variety replacement, the cane yield per unit is lower than the previous estimate, but the sugar production rate has increased year - on - year. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, the sugar production rate is acceptable, but the yield per unit is lower than expected, mainly affected by early cane flowering since January [10]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis 3.3.1 Regional Sales - As of January 31, 2026, Yunnan's sugar sales were relatively stable, with cumulative sugar sales of 53.20 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98 million tons, and a sales rate of 54.06%, basically the same as the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales increased significantly year - on - year, and alcohol sales also increased [11]. - In Guangxi, the pressure of both production and sales decline is prominent. The cane crushing volume and sugar production in this season decreased by 309.71 million tons and 78.80 million tons respectively year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 155.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83.03 million tons, and the sales rate was only 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point year - on - year decline [11]. 3.3.2 Sugar Imports - The market expects that the sugar import volume in January 2026 will reach about 30 million tons, significantly higher than 6 million tons in the same period last year, and most of it is expected to be within the quota or carried over from December for customs clearance. The import data for January and February will be released together on March 18 [15]. - The market has strong expectations for import policies, with a high demand for quota tightening, but there is no official confirmation [16]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The report suggests mainly conducting short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar [3][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global corn supply-demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, but the potential reduction in the US corn planting area in 26/27 may bring speculative themes. In China, corn production increased significantly in 2025/26, and the fast grain - selling progress helps reduce the spring listing pressure. The feed demand has short - term resilience but a pessimistic future trend, and the deep - processing industry has mixed performance. The downstream replenishment provides short - term support to the corn market, and it is expected to operate in a strong and volatile manner, but attention should be paid to factors such as the grain - selling rhythm after the temperature rise in the north, the scale of substitute grain imports, and policy auctions [1][34][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since February, the domestic corn market has generally risen. Futures declined significantly on the first trading day of the month and then fluctuated upwards. The upward trend accelerated on the 11th and broke through the technical resistance level. After the Spring Festival, the futures remained strong, but there were many upper shadows on the daily line, indicating increased divergence in the market. Spot prices were weak and volatile before the Spring Festival due to light trading, and rose after the festival following the strong futures. The strength of the corn market is mainly due to the low inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, limited impact of import substitution, and the fast grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Corn Balance Sheet is Loose, but the New - Season Area May Decline - In 2025/26, the US corn harvest area is 36.93 million hectares, with a yield of 11.68 tons per hectare and a total output of 432 million tons. The feed consumption is 157 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the year - end inventory is 54.024 million tons, with an inventory - to - sales ratio of 12.91%. The export sales are better than the same period last year. Due to the high CBOT soybean/corn price ratio, the new - season corn planting area is expected to decrease [6] 3.2.2 South American Production Continues to be Bumper, but Demand Growth Helps Reduce Inventory - In 2025/26, Brazil's corn output is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than last year, with exports of 43 million tons, a decrease in carry - over inventory, and a lower inventory - to - consumption ratio. Argentina's output is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the carry - over inventory is 5.88 million tons, a decrease from last year. Overall, the production in South America is generally stable, but the demand is good, leading to a decline in carry - over inventory and a lower inventory - to - consumption ratio [10] 3.2.3 Ukraine's Production Increases in a Recovery - Type Manner, and the Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio Rises - In 2025/26, Ukraine's corn output is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons or 8% compared to last year. The final carry - over inventory is 1.648 million tons, a slight increase from last year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 5.84%, a slight increase from previous years [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 The Grain - Selling Progress Slows Down Due to the Long Holiday - In 2025/26, China's corn output is expected to reach 301 million tons, an increase of more than 6 million tons mainly due to the increase in yield. In February, the grain - selling progress slowed down due to the Spring Festival. As of February 25, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 67%, 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year; in North China, it was 66%, 6 percentage points lower; and the national progress was 66%, 4 percentage points lower. Currently, the remaining grain is relatively sufficient [15] 3.3.2 Feed Consumption is Expected to be Poor, and Deep - Processing Consumption is Generally Stable Year - on - Year - In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an increase of 8.6% compared to last year. For 2026, due to the re - entry of the pig - breeding industry into the loss range and the policy of promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity, as well as the poor performance of the egg - laying chicken industry, the feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, the corn consumption of the starch industry has decreased year - on - year due to poor processing profits, while the alcohol industry's consumption has increased significantly as it consumes low - quality corn. The total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises is similar to that of last year [20][22] 3.3.3 The Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn is Expected to Decrease - Since February, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been in a balanced state, and corn has a certain cost - performance advantage in the feed field. The proportion of corn in compound feed has been rising. With the stable growth of China's corn output, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the impact of imported substitutes is more phased and regional. In the short term, Australian barley arrived at ports in February, and the supply of substitute grains such as sorghum from the US, Australia, and Brazil will increase later [24] 3.3.4 Port Inventories are Still Low, and Enterprise Inventories have Declined - The inventory in the northern ports is rising but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The inventory in the southern ports is also at a low level, but it will be supplemented with the arrival of imported grains. The raw material inventories of deep - processing enterprises have returned to low levels and have a certain demand for replenishment. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises are at a neutral level, and due to the poor profit of the breeding sector, the motivation for further large - scale replenishment is not strong [32]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪月报 现实供应压力仍偏大 生猪市场承压 生猪 2026 年 2 月 27 日 主要结论 从长期来看，25 年四季度能繁母猪继续下降，截至 12 月达到 3961 万头， 但这一产能下降程度仍低于之前有关部门的调控目标。中期来看，根据仔猪出生 数量推算，到二季度结束仍是国内生猪出栏压力兑现的阶段，后期理论出栏量总 体维持高位格局。从饲料产销数量的交叉验证来看，10-12 月仔猪料销量环比下 降，对应于 4 月后的出栏环比减少，但整体下降幅度较小；同时，育肥猪料销售 12 月环比下降，主要是前期大猪出栏导致存栏有所缩减。历史对比来看，饲料 环比下降主要是季节性特征，但其降幅都低于历史同期水平，预示着后期猪价季 节性强度受限。需求方面，目前处于节后淡季，终端需求支撑有限；但在猪价低 位、育肥舍利用率不高的情景下，后期潜在的二育及分割品入库的需求是可能出 现的支撑因素。从活体库存来看，经过长假的压栏，目前出栏均重处于高位，大 猪供应压力仍有待消化。操作上，近端以偏弱震荡对待。远月有存产能预期，但 供应收缩力度较有限，宽幅震荡中把握低位阶段性多配机会。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, there is still room for premium speculation on the weather in South American soybean production areas. The rainfall in central and northern Brazil may affect the harvesting progress, while the drought in southern Brazil and most parts of Argentina will also attract market attention. Although Brazil has a clear expectation of a bumper soybean harvest, the quality is worrying. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment in the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina in the next month. Due to the decline in Brazilian farmers' planting income, the downward space for the premium of Brazilian soybeans is limited [3][32][102]. - In March, the US soybean market enters the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year are still the focus of the market. At present, US soybean exports have completed 80% of the USDA's estimate, so the possibility of the USDA further reducing US soybean exports has decreased. Due to the significant increase in purchases from non - Chinese regions, there is a possibility of an upward adjustment in US soybean exports in the future. In addition, the further development of China - US economic and trade relations will also boost US soybeans. Relatively speaking, the crushing demand remains good. The tight inventory situation of US soybeans may continue. The market still has differences on the increase in the planting area of US soybeans in the new year. In the future, due to the recovery of export demand, the growth of US soybean inventory is limited, which will boost US soybeans. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are oscillating around 1150 cents per bushel, and there is a possibility of rising to 1200 cents per bushel [4][56][105]. - In March, the supply gap of domestic soybean meal narrows, but there may be a regional and structural mismatch. Although the domestic pig - raising profit continues to be in a loss, the demand for soybean meal does not change much, which makes the spot inventory of soybean meal decline steadily. Due to the expected arrival of imported soybeans in China and the higher inventory of domestic soybean meal than in the same period of 2025, the spot basis of soybean meal may be weaker than that in the same period of last year. Due to the uncertainty of customs policies and domestic imported soybean auction policies, the domestic soybean meal spot in March remains firm, and the basis of soybean meal remains at a high level. The domestic soybean meal market is still affected by the impact of import costs. In March, CBOT soybeans oscillate strongly, there is still a possibility of weather premium in South America, and the tight supply of US soybeans still supports US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market may maintain a strong oscillation. The main contract should focus on whether it can effectively break through 2850 yuan per ton. If not, it will still oscillate between 2750 yuan per ton and 2850 yuan per ton. In March, the domestic rapeseed meal market faces policy changes. Once the China - US economic and trade relations ease, the supply of rapeseed meal may increase, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. Attention should be paid to policy changes [5][79][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, CBOT soybeans rose significantly. At the beginning of the month, US President Donald Trump posted on social media that in a phone call with Chinese leaders, the two countries discussed increasing soybean imports to 20 million tons this year. The concerns about US soybean exports were alleviated, and the futures price stopped falling and rebounded sharply. In addition, the expected benefits of the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil also boosted US soybeans. At the same time, heavy rainfall in the Brazilian soybean production area and drought in the Argentine soybean production area promoted the price of US soybeans. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal market rose slightly, but the increase was far less than that of US soybeans. At the beginning of the month, the low - level oscillation of domestic soybean meal was due to the decline in the premium of Brazilian soybeans, which offset part of the increase in US soybeans. On the other hand, the gradual increase in domestic imported soybeans narrowed the previously estimated supply gap, which alleviated the market's concerns about supply. Around the Spring Festival, with the rise of US soybeans and the news of domestic customs clearance and the resumption of imported soybean auctions, domestic soybean meal rose sharply. In contrast, the domestic rapeseed meal market was slightly stronger than the soybean meal market. The tight supply pattern of domestic rapeseed meal supported the rapeseed meal market. However, after the Spring Festival, the rapeseed meal market oscillated at a high level, and the market's expectation of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations increased, which suppressed the rapeseed meal market [9]. - In February 2026, the prices of major domestic and foreign oilseeds and oils showed different trends. For example, the price of US soybeans increased by 7.94%, the price of US soybean meal increased by 6.96%, and the price of US soybean oil increased by 13.08%. While the price of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.40%, and the price of domestic palm oil decreased by 2.44% [12]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazil: Abundant Soybean Harvest with Weather Risks - Various institutions have raised their estimates of Brazil's soybean production to over 180 million tons. However, the soybean production areas in Brazil still face weather problems. The southern part of Brazil is threatened by high - temperature and little - rain, while the northern, northeastern, and southeastern regions are affected by heavy rainfall, with frequent disasters such as waterlogging and landslides. The soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul may face the risk of a poor harvest, and crop experts have lowered the expected soybean production in Brazil by 1 million tons to 178 million tons [15]. - As of February 21, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 32.3%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is faster than in previous years, but heavy rainfall has slowed it down, and the quality of soybeans has been affected. The harvest progress in Paraná is significantly slower than in previous years. Future rainfall may continue to affect the harvest progress and quality [18]. - In February 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume was estimated to be 10.69 million tons, still an increase of 9.9% compared with February last year. Brazil is facing the problem of delayed harvesting, and rainfall also delays port cargo transportation. In addition, there are logistics bottlenecks and port disruptions due to protests [23]. - Since mid - January, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has fallen from a high level. Recently, the appreciation of the Brazilian real has made the planting profit of Brazilian soybeans poor, and farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, suppressing the downward trend of the premium of Brazilian soybeans [25]. 3.2.2 Argentina: Risk of Soybean Yield Reduction - Various institutions estimate that Argentina's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is between 48 million and 49 million tons. The rainfall in the Argentine agricultural production area is sporadic, and the drought situation cannot be significantly alleviated, which may lead to a decline in crop ratings and a reduction in soybean production [29]. 3.2.3 US Soybeans: Tight Inventory and Uncertain Planting Area - As of the week of February 12, the US soybean sales have completed 82.53% of the USDA's estimate for the 2025/2026 season. Although the export sales are significantly lower than the same period last year, the sales progress meets expectations. However, the export shipment progress is slow, and the real export in the future may still change. Non - Chinese regions' purchases of US soybeans have increased significantly [35][37]. - The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and the US government's subsequent tariff measures may affect China's soybean imports from the US. As the proportion of US soybean export sales exceeds 80%, the probability of the USDA further reducing exports has decreased. If China's purchases increase in the future, there is a possibility of an upward adjustment in exports [43]. - In January, the soybean crushing volume of NOPA member enterprises was 6.03 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The soybean crushing demand in the US remains strong, and the crushing profit has continued to recover since 2026 [45]. - The USDA estimates that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will increase to 85 million acres, but there are still differences in the market. Historically, the soybean planting intention in March is often lower than the estimate in the February outlook forum. Assuming normal weather conditions, the US soybean production in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase, and the export and crushing volume will also increase, but the overall growth of inventory is limited, which will support the price of US soybeans [49][55]. 3.2.4 Domestic Soybean Meal: Narrowing Supply Gap with Uncertainties - As of February 24, the procurement progress of soybean shipments in different months is different. From February to April, China will receive 7 million tons of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. However, the customs clearance time may increase, which may affect the arrival volume in March. Although the total supply of imported soybeans may be higher than in the same period last year, there may be regional structural shortages [57][61]. - The domestic soybean crushing profit has declined significantly. In March, the domestic soybean monthly crushing volume may be between 6.5 million and 7 million tons. The current domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, and the unexecuted contracts are also at a high level. Due to the possible decline in the overall crushing volume in March, the soybean meal inventory will decline steadily [63][67]. - Although the domestic soybean meal inventory is high, the demand has not decreased. However, if the loss of pig - raising continues to expand, the demand for soybean meal may decline. In March, the supply of soybean meal is less than the demand, and the inventory will decline steadily. The domestic soybean meal may show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, spot - strong and futures - weak, and the basis may remain firm [69][75]. - Considering the fluctuations of CBOT soybeans and the relatively strong premium of Brazilian soybeans, the theoretical cost of domestic soybean meal M2605 is between 2750 yuan per ton and 2950 yuan per ton when the crushing profit is zero. The domestic soybean meal market may maintain a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to whether the main contract can break through 2850 yuan per ton [77][81]. 3.2.5 Domestic Rapeseed Meal: Awaiting Policy Changes - On March 9, the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed in China will be announced. The market speculates that the comprehensive tax rate may be reduced. After March, the supply of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in China is expected to gradually increase [82]. - The domestic rapeseed crushing profit is very high, especially for Canadian rapeseed. After the rapeseed arrives at the port and clears customs, the domestic rapeseed crushing volume is expected to increase significantly [83]. - The current domestic rapeseed meal inventory is at a low level, and the unexecuted contracts are also significantly lower than in the same period last year. Due to the poor import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the second half of 2025, the demand for domestic rapeseed meal has declined significantly. In March, the demand for rapeseed meal may recover. If the import of rapeseed meal recovers, the demand is expected to return to normal [88][90]. - If the China - Canada economic and trade relations ease and the import of Canadian rapeseed is smooth, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [97][100]. 3.3 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - The international protein meal market in March still has weather - related speculation opportunities. The production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina may be adjusted downward, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has limited downward space. The US soybean market is in the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year are good, and the growth of inventory is limited, which will support the price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply gap narrows, but there may be a regional and structural mismatch. The basis remains at a high level, and the market may maintain a strong oscillation. The domestic rapeseed meal market faces policy changes, and the supply may increase, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [102][105][106]. - In operation, the idea of range - bound oscillation for soybean meal can be adopted, and the operation of buying at low levels can be carried out. An option strategy of double - selling in the range can also be adopted [107].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The precious metals market may show a strong oscillation pattern at high levels, with short - term fluctuations intensifying but a clear medium - term upward trend. Geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties form the core support, while the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the pressure of high - level profit - taking create temporary constraints. Macro - uncertainty premiums persist [3][28]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, overseas precious metals markets first declined and then rose with intensified fluctuations. After the holiday, the domestic market made up for the gains. As of February 24, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 3.52% to 1150.50 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract soared 12.84% to 22327 yuan/kilogram. The platinum main contract on the GZFE rose 5.54% to 551.85 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.57% to 438.45 yuan/gram [5]. - Gold is stable due to its dual attributes of hedging and currency. Silver has strong speculative properties and high volatility. Platinum and palladium follow the overall precious metals market [6]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Since February, geopolitical situations have been highly volatile. In the Middle East, the US - Iran negotiation first showed positive signs but then fell into a deadlock, increasing the risk of regional conflict. The next round of negotiation is set for February 26. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the new negotiation from February 26 - 27 is expected to make no substantial progress. Geopolitical risks provide a rigid support for precious metals [15][16][17]. 3. US Tariff Policy - During the Spring Festival, the US tariff policy evolved through judicial denial, quick replacement, and rate increase, intensifying global trade uncertainty. The policy's spill - over effects spread, and the conflict between the US and Europe became obvious, driving funds to allocate precious metals [18]. 4. Fed Monetary Policy - US macro data influence is weakened, and policy uncertainty dominates. The Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts, and the market expects the first rate cut to be postponed to the second half of the year. The legal risks and internal disputes of the Fed increase the uncertainty of rate - cut expectations, with a neutral - to - positive impact on precious metals [19][20][22]. 5. Capital Position - Capital flow and institutional expectations show that the precious metals market is dominated by macro - finance and hedging. Gold ETFs have seen continuous increases in holdings, and silver ETFs have rebounded. Platinum and palladium futures positions fluctuate following the market, with no clear one - sided bets [23][25][27]. 6. Future Outlook - The precious metals market may oscillate strongly at high levels. Gold is recommended to hold long - term positions; silver should be observed more, with light positions for speculative trading; platinum and palladium should be traded in short - term and light - position bands [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with narrow - range fluctuations. Recently, due to geopolitical events and more shutdowns of foreign methanol plants, the US - dollar - denominated methanol price is oscillating strongly. The domestic market maintains high operation, with sufficient production, and the inland area mainly reduces prices to clear inventories. Before the festival, there is still restocking demand from middle - and downstream users, and methanol fluctuates significantly with crude oil [47]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Price Difference Trends - The closing price of the main methanol contract MA2605 on Friday is 2,240 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of over 4% and a position of 820,000 lots. The basis has slightly strengthened but remains at a discount [6]. 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Price Differences between Production and Sales Areas - The spot methanol market has declined slightly this week. The weekly average price in the Taicang area is 2,229 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 2.2%. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia is 1,792 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.14%. Due to pre - festival restocking by downstream users, the procurement enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory pressure in the main production areas is not large this week. The large - scale downstream factories along the coast are well - stocked, and overall demand is expected to gradually weaken [9]. 1.3 Methanol Foreign - Market Prices and Price Differences between Domestic and Foreign Markets - In the foreign market, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 259 - 267 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation price for Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future is +1 - 2.5% [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Methanol Operating Rate - The overall operating load of domestic methanol plants this week is 78.32%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points from last week and 2.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 89.49%, an increase of 1.40 percentage points from last week and 3.80 percentage points from the same period last year. Some plants are still under maintenance, and the operating loads in the northwest and north China have increased, driving up the national methanol operating load [17]. 2.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - The import arbitrage window is closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remains open [20]. 2.3 Methanol Port Inventory - The coastal methanol inventory is 1.395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.37%. The overall pick - up volume in Taicang this week has increased compared with last week, and the estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area is around 737,000 tons. It is expected that the volume of imported methanol ships arriving in China in mid - February will be 590,000 tons, with more arrivals at major downstream factories [23]. 2.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The international natural gas price has risen and then fallen, and the import cost of natural - gas - based methanol has dropped to 1,660 yuan/ton [24]. 2.5 Methanol's Upstream - Coal - The domestic thermal coal market has weak supply and demand this week, and coal prices are stable with a weak trend. The supply in production areas has shrunk, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, resulting in stable but weak pit - mouth prices [32]. 2.6 Methanol's Downstream Prices and Operating Rates - The demand - side weighted operating rate is 74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries is 55%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8% [33]. 2.7 Methanol's Downstream - Traditional Downstream - Not summarized due to lack of clear text description. 2.8 Methanol's Downstream - MTO - The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week is 80.61%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from last week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol is 69.76%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points from last week. The 300,000 - ton plant of Yangmei Hengtong has restarted, leading to a slight increase in the domestic MTO operating rate. The operating load of Chengzhi Phase II is low, and Xingxing Energy is shut down, with the restart time to be determined [44]. 3. Outlook for the Future - Recently, due to geopolitical events and more shutdowns of foreign methanol plants, the US - dollar - denominated methanol price is oscillating strongly. The domestic market maintains high operation, with sufficient production, and the inland area mainly reduces prices to clear inventories. Before the festival, there is still restocking demand from middle - and downstream users, and methanol fluctuates significantly with crude oil [47].