Report Title - Structural Tightness Supports, Futures Near-Strong and Far-Weak - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report, dated January 9, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, corn spot prices fluctuated, with the Northeast producing area being relatively strong, North China slightly weaker, and port spot prices adjusting. Futures prices were weak first and then strong, with a significant weekly increase. The main contract C03 approached the high point in early December again. The basis of Jinzhou to C03 weakened, and the spread between C3 and C5 strengthened significantly. The near-term futures performed stronger than the spot, mainly due to the valuation repair under the high discount of futures and the continuously low level of warehouse receipts. Looking ahead, on the supply side, although this year's corn production increased, the low carry-over inventory at the beginning of the year and the poor quality of North China corn effectively absorbed the pressure of the bumper harvest in Northeast China. On the demand side, feed enterprises' inventory has reached a normal level. With continuous losses in the breeding industry and a pessimistic outlook for feed demand, feed enterprises have insufficient motivation to further increase their inventory levels. The raw material inventory of deep-processing enterprises is still at a low level but has increased month-on-month. Considering the weak downstream consumption, there is room for further replenishment in the later stage, but the intensity is also limited. From the perspective of intermediate inventory, the inventory at northern ports failed to continue to rise in late December and instead declined; the inventory at southern ports increased, but the absolute level is still low. The overall circulation inventory reflects that the situation of structural tightness has not been completely eliminated. At the same time, the auction of policy grain sources is also progressing in an orderly manner, which is conducive to supplementing the market's available grain sources. In general, the corn market is supported by the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches in the short term and is relatively resistant to decline, but the large supply-demand background is difficult to support much room for price increases. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the later stage. The operation strategy is to adopt a fluctuating mindset [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook 1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided 1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - Not provided 1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread - Not provided 1.4 Corn Sales Progress - Not provided 1.5 Corn Imports - Not provided 1.6 Feed and Breeding Demand - Not provided 1.7 Feed and Breeding Demand: Feed Production - Not provided 1.8 Deep-Processing Demand - Not provided 1.9 Substitutes - Not provided 1.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.11 Southern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided 2.2 Corn Starch Spot - Not provided 2.3 Corn - Starch Spread - Not provided 2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided 2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided 2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided 3. International Corn Market Dynamics 3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided 3.2 US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not provided 3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided 3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar showed a relatively strong sideways movement this week. Supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking, spot prices were firm. It is expected that Yunnan's sugar sales in December will exceed last year's. However, the overall supply is relatively abundant, and the market is waiting for verification of Guangxi's production. Zhengzhou sugar is under obvious pressure at the 5300 yuan/ton level and may maintain a wide - range sideways movement in the short term, with an operating range of 5000 - 5350 yuan/ton [55]. - Internationally, the international sugar market has both bullish and bearish factors. Brazil's sugar exports in December were about 2.913 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. South Brazil's cumulative sugar exports from the 2025/26 crushing season to December decreased by 4.16% year - on - year. As of December 31, 2025, India's total sugar production was about 12 million tons, a nearly 25% increase compared to the same period last year. The Indian government will review sugar mills' export performance after March 31, 2026. Overall, the international sugar market is in a low - level sideways pattern [55]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures had a slight sideways movement with a weekly increase of 0.7%. ICE sugar futures had a low - level sideways movement with a weekly increase of 2.47% [8]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific text description of trends is provided, only data sources are given [11][12]. - **Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan**: No specific sales data or trend analysis is provided, only data sources are given [16][14]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In November, imports were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March 03 contract price of 14.5 cents/pound, Brazil's in - quota import cost was 4019 yuan/ton, and out - of - quota import cost was 5090 yuan/ton; Thailand's in - quota import cost was 4078 yuan/ton, and out - of - quota import cost was 5166 yuan/ton [20]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the industrial inventory in November was about 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58,900 tons [23]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 10,568, an increase of 1696 compared to last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 6005, and valid forecasts were 4563 [31]. - **Brazil's Production Progress**: In the second half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 592 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [35]. - **Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in central and southern Brazil was 51.12%, compared to 48.34% in the same period last year [40]. - **Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports**: In December, Brazil's sugar exports were 2.913 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [42]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: Brazil's main production areas had abundant rainfall, which was beneficial to sugarcane growth. India had little precipitation, which was beneficial to sugarcane crushing [51][52]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement in the short term, with an operating range of 5000 - 5350 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data in December [55]. - **International Market**: The international sugar market will remain in a low - level sideways pattern [55].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Sharp Rise, Pay Attention to Festival Stocking Situation - Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report" and was released on January 9, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Performance This Week - The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 6.24% [8] Group 3: Supply - Side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, with a cold - storage inventory ratio of about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices [13][36] Group 4: Demand - Side Situation Cold - Storage Shipment - As of January 9, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a two - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.18%, with a two - week decrease of 2.56 percentage points [18] Export Volume - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The new - season apple listing was delayed, and the export volume recovered in November due to increased overseas demand as Christmas approached [20] Spot Price - As of January 9, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of first - and second - grade apples above 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for farmers' piece - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' goods. The overall transaction was stable, and customers started packaging gift boxes [32] Group 5: Weekly Viewpoint - The low inventory provides support for apple prices. The cold - storage capacity ratio is decreasing, and the de - stocking rate is increasing. The export volume is expected to continue to grow in the first quarter. The Spring Festival is postponed this year, extending the stocking time. With sufficient supply and increased farmers' willingness to sell, merchants are purchasing cost - effective goods. The market is strong, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish - on - oscillation approach, while paying attention to festival stocking [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: The CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly this week. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the trend of US soybeans and closed higher. The market is waiting for the USDA report next Monday. The domestic soybean meal spot transactions increased, and the short - term basis remained firm. The long - term trend depends on factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and the outcome of China - Canada talks [6]. - The oil market: The US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil closed higher this week. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend. The overall trend of oils this week was soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil. The international oil market may oscillate strongly, and the domestic oil market will follow the international market. The progress of China - Canada economic and trade relations is the key to the trend of rapeseed oil next week [61][124]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market trend**: The CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly from the bottom last week. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the US soybeans and closed higher. The domestic soybean meal spot transactions increased, and the basis remained firm. However, the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the uncertainty of domestic imported soybean auctions affected the market [6]. - **US soybean export**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 27% from the previous week but decreased by 24% year - on - year. As of January 1, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 16.401241 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45.3% [11]. - **South American market**: In Brazil, the growth conditions of summer crops are good, with appropriate rainfall in the south. In Argentina, the northern region has sufficient rainfall, while the southern region is dry, which may affect the growth of crops [21][22]. - **Domestic market**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level, and the spot price is bullish. The soybean crushing profit has rebounded, but the futures crushing profit still has a certain loss. The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills has decreased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly [37][46]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis - **Market trend**: The US soybean oil oscillated and closed higher, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil followed the US soybean oil and the import cost to rise, palm oil rebounded after a low - level oscillation, and rapeseed oil rose first and then fell [61]. - **International oil information**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise to a seven - year high in December. The Indian palm oil imports may fall to an eight - month low in December. Indonesia may increase the export tax on palm oil and seal up palm oil plantations [64][66]. - **Domestic oil inventory**: As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased slightly week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase. The soybean oil inventory decreased, the palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [83]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Seasonal analysis**: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils are provided, showing the historical seasonal trends of these products [114][117][119]. - **Next - week market outlook**: Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean meal are intertwined; those of rapeseed meal are bearish; those of soybean oil are bullish in the short - term and long - term and intertwined in the medium - term; those of palm oil are intertwined; and those of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meal, the USDA report and South American weather are the focuses, and the outcome of China - Canada talks will affect the rapeseed meal market. For oils, the international oil market may oscillate strongly, and the domestic market will follow. The progress of China - Canada economic and trade relations is the key to the rapeseed oil market [123][124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 maintained a volatile trend with a weekly increase of 0.33%. Considering the firm external quotation, cost - end support, declining port inventory, and potential mild recovery of domestic demand, the current upward trend of pulp futures may not end. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then adopt a bullish - biased trading strategy while paying attention to the digestion of port inventory [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 first rose and then fell, maintaining a volatile market with a weekly increase of 0.33% [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of January 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,581 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from last week, and the increase rate was 0.04 percentage points higher than the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,655 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from last week, and the increase rate was 0.59 percentage points higher than the previous period [11] - **Pulp Import Volume in November**: In November 2025, China imported 3.246 billion tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8734 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 577.14 US dollars/ton. From January to November, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.8% and - 1.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 691,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%, and the growth rate of softwood pulp imports slowed down significantly [15] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of December 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.965 billion tons, a decrease of 1.19% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease [20] - **Pulp Inventory in Major European Ports in November**: In November 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% compared with November 2024. The decline in European wood pulp port inventory may indicate that the off - season of European demand has passed and demand is gradually recovering [23] - **Downstream Pulp Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption is the main way of pulp consumption in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of January 8, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 5.45 percentage points week - on - week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 0.74 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 0.08 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 0.50 percentage points week - on - week [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - Arauco's January wood pulp external quotations showed an increase in some varieties. The decline in European wood pulp port inventory may indicate the end of the off - season and a recovery in demand. The external quotations are firm, providing cost - end support. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp is stable with a slight upward trend, but the downstream paper price increase is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the willingness to purchase high - priced raw materials. Considering the continued increase in external quotations, cost - end support, and declining port inventory, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The current upward trend of pulp futures may not end, and attention should be paid to the digestion of port inventory. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then adopt a bullish - biased trading strategy [34]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Zheng Cotton Soars and Then Declines, Planting Area Reduction Confirmed - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - **Report Date**: January 9, 2026 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Domestic Market**: This week, Zheng Cotton soared and then declined. After the market's digestion of the reduced planting area reached its peak, the price of Zheng Cotton exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton. However, as the price rose, the pressure for long - position holders to take profits increased. After the policy expectations were realized, the market is expected to cool down and return to fundamentals. Due to the actual contraction in supply, the adjustment space for Zheng Cotton is expected to be limited, with an overall operating range of 14,400 - 15,200 yuan/ton [53]. - **International Market**: The international market was driven by the Chinese market, with prices soaring and then declining. Brazil's cumulative cotton exports in 2025 reached 3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9%, hitting a record high. US cotton sales weakened again. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 98,000 bales, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weak export data has a certain suppressing effect on the trend of US cotton. However, the high price difference between Chinese and US cotton may still support overall exports. In general, US cotton is still under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: Zheng Cotton soared and then declined this week, with a weekly increase of 0.62%. ICE cotton also soared and then declined, with a weekly increase of 0.58% [9]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 393 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 345 yuan/ton [14]. - **Import Situation**: In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of the second half of November, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [19][20]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 160 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 150 yuan/ton [32]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 198. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,189, and the number of effective forecasts was 2,248, totaling 9,437 [37]. - **Seed Cotton Acquisition**: No specific acquisition situation was described in detail, only the price data chart of Xinjiang seed cotton acquisition was presented [40][41]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of January [the specific day is missing], the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 98,000 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 22,500 bales [43]. - **US Weather**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 22.8%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 24.4%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 11.6%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.1%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) was 37.5% [50]. 3.2后市展望 - The domestic market is expected to cool down after the policy expectations are realized and return to fundamentals, with limited adjustment space for Zheng Cotton. - The international market is affected by China. The high export volume of Brazilian cotton and the weak export data of US cotton co - exist. US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic cotton market, short - term fundamentals have limited support. The price increase is driven by the potential long - term benefit of reduced domestic cotton planting area. But the long - term benefit has been factored into the price, and the rapid rise in upstream cotton prices will increase downstream pressure [1][28][29]. - In the international market, the adjustment in the USDA monthly report is limited. U.S. cotton exports are generally weak, but the widening price difference between Chinese and U.S. cotton has increased Chinese purchases, boosting U.S. cotton exports. Indian cotton prices are supported by concerns about a shortage of high - grade cotton. Overall, international cotton prices lack upward momentum but have limited downside in the short term [1][29]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a bearish trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton [2][30]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In December, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated slightly before rising, with a gain of over 1,000 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of a significant reduction in new - year cotton planting area and continuous capital inflow [3]. - In December, the international cotton market oscillated at a low level. After the positive news of the Fed's interest rate cut was realized, the USDA report was bearish, and U.S. cotton exports were weak. However, short - covering at low prices and a significant increase in U.S. cotton export data at the beginning of December led to a price rebound [3]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 New - year Supply Tightening Expectations - There are strong expectations of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and output in 2026. It is rumored that the target planting area for the 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target price policy will be about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10%) from the previous year. Some cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang are prohibited from winter and spring irrigation, increasing uncertainty [5]. - In 2026, cotton planting enthusiasm has been affected. The actual subsidy for the 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton target price may not meet farmers' expectations, which will lead to a reduction in the sown area in 2026. As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume of lint cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 5.3736 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.76%. Due to the increase in production, farmers' expected subsidy income may decline, and some cotton - planting entities may face losses [6]. 2.2 Narrowing Export Decline - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports showed a narrowing decline. Textile exports increased year - on - year, and the decline in clothing exports eased. The total export of textile and clothing in November was $23.87 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%, 7 percentage points narrower than in October. Clothing exports were $11.59 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%, with the decline narrowing by 5 percentage points. Textile exports were $12.28 billion, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - After the China - U.S. summit in November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, and China adjusted counter - tariffs. The market is optimistic about cotton product export orders to the U.S. and the EU in December 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [9]. 2.3 Short - term Weakening of Downstream and Limited Demand Support - As of December 19, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 47.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 percentage points, and that of weaving enterprises was 48.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The operating rates of both types of enterprises have declined, providing limited support for raw materials [12]. - The downstream finished - product inventory has increased, especially in weaving enterprises. As of December 19, the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 29 days, up 1 day from late November, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 34.7 days, up 2.2 days from late November. The inventories of both are at relatively high levels in the past five years [15]. 2.4 Positive Policies and Some Support for Long - term Consumption - The Politburo meeting on December 8, 2025, proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy. In 2025, China significantly increased the fiscal deficit rate and the issuance of special bonds, expanding fiscal expenditure and promoting economic stability [17]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1359.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. With policy support, consumption in 2026 may have some support [19]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Limited Adjustment and Slight Increase in Global Inventory - The USDA's December cotton supply - demand report showed limited changes compared with November. Global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume were slightly adjusted, and the global ending inventory increased slightly by more than 40,000 bales. The reduction in production in Francophone African countries was offset by an increase in U.S. production. Consumption decreased in Brazil, the U.S., and some Central American countries, and trade volume decreased by over 250,000 bales [22]. 3.2 Overall Weak U.S. Cotton Exports with a Stronger Start in December - As of December 2025, the total signed sales volume of U.S. upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecast export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the total signed volume [26]. - U.S. cotton exports were weak in November but strengthened in early December. In the week ending December 11, the net increase in U.S. cotton export sales was 304,700 bales, a 99% increase from the previous week and a 95% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The increase was mainly due to increased Chinese purchases [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple futures market has dropped from its high level, and the later market drive will gradually shift to the demand side. The export volume is expected to increase in Q1 2026, and some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December, which will increase the shipping volume. Supported by the decline in the high - quality fruit rate and production, there is still some support below the apple futures market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range, and the operation suggestion is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [2][41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In December, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over, and the position was transferred to AP2605, showing a pattern of high - level decline. The fulfillment of the production reduction expectation and the apple consumption off - season led to a weak performance of the market [6] II. Apple Fundamental Analysis 1. Cold storage inventory is at a historically low level - As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 7.021 billion kilograms, 857.8 million kilograms lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong's cold storage inventory was about 2.655 billion kilograms, Shaanxi's was about 1.9664 billion kilograms, and non - main producing areas' was about 2.3996 billion kilograms. Due to the decline in production and quality, the new - season apple storage volume decreased significantly, and there were quality problems such as water rot. It is expected that the supply of high - quality apples will be tight, and the price may be stable or rising, while the price of general - quality apples may decline [10] 2. The festival effect boosts demand, which has slightly improved - As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 53.31%, 6.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From December 18 - 24, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.81 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume increased by 0.27 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the de - stocking rate was 4.58%. Affected by festivals, the shipping volume in Shandong increased, mainly low - quality apples; Shaanxi also traded low - price apples, and some large traders were preparing for the Spring Festival. The shipment in Gansu was okay. With the end of the off - cold - storage apple sales, the cold - storage trading volume increased. It is expected that some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December, and the shipping volume may increase [16] 3. The import volume of fresh apples decreased month - on - month in November - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 250,000 kilograms, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.37 million kilograms, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. Due to the small proportion of imports in the national production and sufficient fruit supply, it is expected that the import scale will remain at the current level [21] 4. Fresh apples enter the export peak season, and the export volume rebounds - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121.6 million kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The festival effect significantly boosted the export volume. It is expected that the export volume in Q1 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [24][25] 5. The listing of citrus fruits weakens apple demand - Citrus is a major winter fruit, and its listing period is from November to March of the next year. Due to the high yield and low price of citrus, it competes strongly with apples around the Spring Festival. In December, the fruit price increased month - on - month, at the highest level in the past five years. The listing of citrus fruits will have a certain impact on the downstream demand for apples [28][32] 6. Apple consumption seasonality analysis - The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by the completion of inventory clearance, the reduction of seasonal fruits, and the double - festival stocking. November and December are affected by the festival effect and the effective supply of new fruits. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and the decline in inventory apple quality; August is affected by the impact of seasonal fruits, the listing of early - maturing apples, and the decline in inventory apple quality; October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the listing of substitute fruits [34][35] 7. The origin price runs stably, and the transaction of high - quality goods is not prosperous - As of December 26, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of 65 - 70 apples from cold - storage farmers was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per 500 grams, and that of 75 apples from merchants was about 3.0 yuan per 500 grams. The price difference between different apple sources has expanded, and the price difference between large and small fruits may further expand during the cold - storage apple sales period. The long - term futures contracts may remain strong [38] III. Market Outlook - Supply side: As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 7.021 billion kilograms, at a historically low level. Demand side: Affected by festivals, the shipping volume in some areas increased, and large traders in Shaanxi were preparing for the Spring Festival. The market drive will gradually shift to the demand side. The export is expected to increase, and some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December. Supported by the decline in high - quality fruit rate and production, there is support below the apple futures market, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The pulp futures rally may not be over yet. Given the continued increase in the outer - market quotes providing strong cost support and the extended pre - holiday restocking period due to the slightly delayed Spring Festival in 2026, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish approach, while attention should be paid to the digestion of port inventories [2][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review In December, the main contract of pulp futures completed the roll - over, with positions transferred to the SP2605 contract, and the market rebounded significantly. The expected tightening of coniferous pulp supply due to major pulp mills shutting down or reducing production drove market sentiment stronger [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 November Import Volume Increased Month - on - Month, but Import Expectations for Next Year are Tightening In November 2025, China imported 3246000 tons of pulp, with an import value of $1.8734 billion and an average unit price of $577.14 per ton. From January to November, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.8% and - 1.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. In November, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 725200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 10.12%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1764600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.85% and a year - on - year increase of 29.68%. However, due to major pulp mills shutting down or reducing production, the supply of coniferous pulp is expected to tighten significantly next year, and the import volume may decline [12][14]. 2.2 European Port Inventories Declined, and Overseas Demand May Recover Slowly In October 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% compared with October 2024. European wood pulp port inventories have been declining since September, indicating that the off - season for papermaking demand in Europe and the United States has passed. Overseas wood pulp demand may show a slow recovery. Against the background of the merger wave in the European papermaking industry, the outer - market quotes of pulp are firm [18]. 2.3 Production Cuts and Inventory Decline Lead to Firm Outer - Market Quotes Since August, the outer - market price of imported broad - leaf pulp has rebounded from a low of $490 per ton in July, with a cumulative increase of $60 per ton. The outer - market quotes of wood pulp are firm, and the high import cost provides strong support for domestic prices [21]. 2.4 Cost Increase Further Squeezes the Profits of Downstream Base Paper Enterprises The prices of imported coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are rising, increasing the production costs of downstream paper enterprises. However, the prices of downstream base paper are difficult to increase, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness for high - priced raw materials. The operating rates of different paper types are diverging, and overall, downstream paper mills are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with low purchasing enthusiasm [27]. 2.5 Domestic Major Port Inventories Declined Month - on - Month but Remain at a High Level As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of pulp in major ports decreased by 2.47% week - on - week, with the decline rate expanding by 0.21 percentage points. However, the overall inventory is still at a relatively high historical level. Due to the slightly delayed Spring Festival in 2026, the pre - holiday restocking period is extended, and domestic demand may show a mild recovery [31]. 3. Future Outlook On the supply side, in November 2025, China's pulp import volume and value showed certain changes compared with the same period last year. Major pulp mills shutting down or reducing production will lead to a significant tightening of coniferous pulp supply next year. On the demand side, downstream paper enterprises' operating rates are diverging, and high costs are squeezing corporate profits and suppressing purchasing willingness. Considering the cost support and the extended restocking period, domestic demand may recover mildly, and the pulp futures rally may continue [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the main sugar production and supply in Q1 2026 will come from the Northern Hemisphere. Except for a certain production delay in Thailand, the sugar production in countries like India and China is optimistic, exerting significant downward pressure on international sugar prices. Although the expectation of a production cut in Brazil in the 2026/27 season has increased, it can only support the price at the bottom and is unlikely to drive the price up [2][20]. - Domestically, sugar prices dropped rapidly under the pressure of the large - scale listing of new sugar but rebounded quickly when approaching the 5,000 - yuan/ton mark, indicating a possible short - term bottom. However, in the medium term, the bear market is not over, and prices may hit the bottom again. Attention should be paid to the spot market trend after the Spring Festival stocking period ends. Zhengzhou sugar futures may enter a low - level oscillation pattern [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In December, Zhengzhou sugar futures first declined and then rebounded. Affected by the large - scale listing of domestic new sugar and higher - than - expected imports, the price dropped to a minimum of 5,072 yuan/ton and then recovered to around 5,300 yuan/ton as short - sellers took profits [5]. - International sugar prices oscillated at a low level in December. The optimistic production outlook of major sugar - producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere pressured the price, with the lowest reaching 14.38 cents/pound. However, some potential long - term positive factors limited the downside, and the price rebounded to above 15 cents/pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: Its production is nearly finished, and the sugar - making ratio continues to decline. As of December 1, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central and southern regions was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.13%. The bi - weekly sugar - making ratio dropped to 35.52%. If international sugar prices remain low, the sugar - making ratio in the new season may be much lower than this year [7]. - **India**: The sugar production progress in the 2025/26 season is fast. As of December 15, 2025, the national sugar production reached 7.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 28%. However, sugar mills are facing difficulties as the domestic sugar ex - factory price is far below the production cost, and there is a high call for raising the Minimum Support Price, which may affect next year's production willingness [10]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sugar Cane Crushing**: In the 2025/26 season, 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a designed sugar - cane crushing capacity of 582,500 tons per day. The probability of sugar production in Guangxi reaching over 6.9 million tons is high. In Yunnan, 35 sugar mills have started production, an increase of 5 compared to the same period last year, with a projected crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day [13]. - **Imports**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. The import of syrups and pre - mixed powders tightened significantly. After the tightening of the syrup import policy, the import of Thai syrups decreased notably. Attention should be paid to whether imports from other countries will increase [17]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Recommendations - Conclusion: The international sugar price is under pressure, and the Brazilian production cut can only support the bottom. Domestically, the bear market is not over, and prices may hit the bottom again. Zhengzhou sugar futures may oscillate at a low level [20]. - Operational Recommendations: Focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][21]