研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 现货区域分化 期货近强远弱 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年09月12日 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货走势显著分化，东北地区现货表现偏强，黑龙江深加工企业门前到车量虽有所回升，但仍处于偏低水平，显 示流通余粮偏紧；华北地区现货较弱，山东深加工企业门前到车大幅增加，持粮主体在新玉米上市前加快出货，而深加工企业 压价意愿较强。港口现货总体表现为偏震荡。基本面来看，国内新玉米大量上市将近，因产量预期有所增加，加之成本下降， 贸易商对即将到来的上市压力较为担忧，以加快出货为主。但东北余粮偏紧，加之北方港口去库较快，库存绝对水平已经回到 近年低位，对港口现货形成一定支撑。需求端来看，仔猪价格近期下跌明显，仔猪销售利润进入亏损区间，加上政策层面也试 图推进行业有序去产能，对未来饲料需求形成悲观预期；深加工利润持续不佳，淀粉开机率下降，对玉米需求偏弱。因此，尽 管饲料企业及深加工企业原料库存都已经下降到低位，但在下游需求较差及新玉米大量上市临近的关口，其低库存策略仍会延 续。综合来看，国内余 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp market is currently in a low - level oscillation with a weak overall trend. Although there are some factors such as a new round of foreign market price hikes and industry players' reluctance to sell and support prices, the downstream paper mills' profit margins are under pressure and their acceptance is limited. The market expects the downstream demand to stabilize for a real "reversal". It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated at a low level with a weak overall trend [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of September 11, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.04 percentage points. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,209 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from last week, turning from an increase to a decrease [11]. - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to July**: In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp with an import value of $1.7652 billion and an average unit price of $613.56/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [15]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, up 0.71% from last week, and the increase rate widened by 0.19 percentage points [19][36]. - **European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July**: In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month - on - month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [23]. - **Downstream Pulp Utilization Rates**: Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main way of pulp consumption in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of September 11, the weekly operating load rates of double - copper paper, double - offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.94, 1.90, 5.08, and 0.72 percentage points respectively compared to last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, up 0.71% from last week, and the increase rate widened by 0.19 percentage points. In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp with an import value of $1.545 billion and an average unit price of $582.36/ton. From January to August, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume remaining stable. A new round of foreign market price hikes has led to some reluctance to sell and support prices among industry players, but the downstream paper mills' profit margins are under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the transition between the traditional off - season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market outlook is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current time is at the end of the old - season apple inventory clearance and the stage of waiting for the new - season late - maturing Red Fuji to be listed. The cold - storage remaining volume is low, and the supply is concentrated in Shandong. The cold - storage merchants are eager to sell. The recent rainfall in the northwest may affect the quality of early - maturing apples, leading to increased purchases of cold - storage apples and a slight price increase. Some specifications may still see a price increase of 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/jin. The market generally believes that the new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early - maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year. The opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji is likely to be higher than the previous season. The market may reflect the previous production - reduction expectation, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [37] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over. AP2601 fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - The inventory is lower than the same period last year. As of September 11, 2025, the total remaining volume of apples in national cold - storage is 255,800 tons, the lowest in the past five years. The remaining volume in Shandong's cold - storage is 182,500 tons, and that in Shaanxi is 58,400 tons [12][13] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory Clearance**: As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, with a weekly decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 percentage points. The inventory clearance rate is 96.96%. At the end of the inventory clearance period, there are differences in the shipment situation among different cold - storages, and the data error has slightly increased [18] - **Export Volume**: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.39%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons, and the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to rebound [21] - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. For 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin. For merchant's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.8 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin. The price of third - grade fruit is 2.5 - 2.6 yuan/jin, and the price of bulk goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The price of Red General is stable, with the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade red fruit at 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, and the mainstream price of first - and second - grade semi - red fruit at 2.8 - 3.1 yuan/jin [33]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Ferroalloy Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Drag, Policy Support, Wait-and-See Approach" and dated September 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - News Overview - Multiple banks in Shenzhen announced that starting from September 12, they will no longer distinguish between first - and second - home mortgages, and the specific mortgage rates will be determined based on multiple factors [5] - Eight departments in Henan Province jointly issued measures to support housing consumption, including increasing purchase subsidies and raising housing provident fund loan limits [5] - Three national departments issued a work plan for the power equipment industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 6% for traditional power equipment and other goals [5] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year growth of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [5] - Multiple regions in Jiangxi suspended subsidy activities for consumer goods replacement from September 12 at 24:00 [5] Group 3: Market Review - Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon futures showed small fluctuations last week, spot prices remained flat, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The production of manganese silicon continued to rise while steel production decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand situation is expected to become looser, but with low current inventory, the price trend lacks a clear direction. The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 47.38%, an increase of 0.93% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 30,590 tons, an increase of 185 tons [49] - The report also presented data on manganese silicon's basis, price changes, and related production and demand indicators in different regions [9] Group 4: Market Review - Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon futures showed small fluctuations last week, spot prices rebounded slightly, and the basis changed little. Ferrosilicon production decreased month - on - month, and steel production also decreased. The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 16,150 tons, a decrease of 280 tons [49] Group 5: Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Overview - The report covered aspects such as manganese ore prices, import volume, inventory, profit estimation, production, and demand in the manganese silicon industry chain [22][24][26] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Industry Chain Overview - The report analyzed ferrosilicon profit estimation, production, and demand in the ferrosilicon industry chain [38][41][46] Group 7: Outlook - For manganese silicon, due to high production levels, it is advisable to pay attention to energy prices and industrial policy changes and adopt a wait - and - see approach [49] - For ferrosilicon, its trend depends on energy price changes, and a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, natural rubber may show a range - bound oscillation. The supply of glue raw materials is tight, which supports the bottom of rubber prices, and tire companies still have the enthusiasm to replenish stocks at low prices due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stockpiling. However, the rapid decline in the operating rate of tire companies last week and the high finished - product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises may limit the short - term upward space of rubber prices. The impact of weather in production areas on natural rubber output should be continuously monitored in the future [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, rubber prices fluctuated and rebounded, and last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU futures accelerated its rise and reached a new high since June. The rebound of synthetic rubber BR and No. 20 rubber NR was slightly weaker. In August, there was more rainfall in domestic natural rubber production areas, affecting tapping operations. Last week, the rainfall in Thai production areas decreased, but some areas were still affected by rain. In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold 84,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were 624,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11%, with a net increase of about 61,000 vehicles [3] 2. Tight Supply of Upstream Glue Raw Materials - In Hainan, recent heavy rainfall affected tapping, with the daily glue output of the whole island less than 500 tons, and some factories raised prices to buy raw materials. In Yunnan, the daily glue volume was about 3,500 tons recently, and some areas were affected by rainfall. In Thailand, the overall weather improved, but some areas were still affected by rain. In 2025, it is predicted that the global natural rubber output will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 billion tons, and the consumption will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 15.565 billion tons. From January to July 2025, the rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased by 14.3% year - on - year [3][4][7] 3. Continuous Decline in Rubber Inventory at Qingdao Port - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the total import was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. As of last Thursday, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,320 tons week - on - week, and that of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts increased by 706 tons week - on - week. As of the week of August 29, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.75% week - on - week [9][11] 4. Rapid Decline in the Operating Rate of Downstream Tire Enterprises and High Finished - Product Inventory of Semi - Steel Tires - As of the week of September 4, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 58.7%, a decrease of 4.08% from the previous week and 0.22% from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 5.5% from the previous week and 9.6% from the same period last year. In July 2025, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased by 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative output increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of rubber tires in China increased by 5.4% year - on - year [13][16] 5. Future Outlook - The supply side shows a seasonal increase in natural rubber output, but the growth of new rubber output is slow. The demand side has support from rigid demand and pre - holiday stockpiling. However, the rapid decline in the operating rate of tire enterprises and the high inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises limit the short - term upward space of rubber prices. In the short term, natural rubber may show a range - bound oscillation [20]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Continued Weakness, Focus on Demand Stabilization - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and was released on September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight rebound but remained in a weak overall trend [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Prices - As of September 4, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,652 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous week, with the decline narrowing by 0.69 percentage points. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to July - In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to July increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [15] Port Inventory - As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0574 million tons, up 0.52% from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase [19][34] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the port inventories in the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [22] Downstream Pulp Utilization Rates - Wastepaper pulp accounts for 63% of China's total pulp consumption, wood pulp accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp accounts for 21%. Non-wood pulp accounts for 6%. As of September 4, the operating rate of double-coated paper remained flat, that of offset paper decreased by 0.47 percentage points, that of white cardboard increased by 0.19 percentage points, and that of tissue paper decreased by 0.38 percentage points [27] Group 4: Future Outlook - The pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports increased by 0.52% from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. Some major hardwood pulp producers have raised their prices. The recent weak rebound in the market did not prompt the pulp market to follow suit. Downstream paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices and mainly purchase at low prices. The market showed a slight rebound. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the stabilization of demand [34]

Report Title - "A Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds by Guoxin Futures" [2] Report Date - September 5, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, CBOT soybeans oscillated downward this week due to concerns about export demand, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated at the bottom. In the oils market, international oils fluctuated within a range, and domestic oils oscillated higher. Looking ahead, the protein meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and the oils market is likely to continue its strong - side oscillation [6][78][144]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans oscillated downward due to concerns about export demand and the lack of Chinese buyers. Domestic soybean meal fluctuated around 3050. Brazilian premium increases provided cost - driven support, but future supply uncertainties intensified market volatility. Spot market trading was light [6]. 3.1.2 Export Data - As of August 28, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, up 20% from the previous week but down 6% from the same period last year. The 2024/25 total export inspection volume reached 49,763,188 tons, up 11.3% year - on - year, and 97.5% of the revised annual export target [12]. 3.1.3 Crop Conditions - As of August 31, the U.S. soybean pod - setting rate was 94%, the leaf - falling rate was 11%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 65% [23][24]. 3.1.4 Global Supply Information - In Brazil, the 2025/26 soybean planting area in Paraná state is expected to be about 5.8 million hectares, up 1% year - on - year, and the yield may increase by 4%. StoneX maintains Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast at a record 178.2 million tons [45]. 3.1.5 Inventory and Profitability - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 6.8546 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit continued to decline, while the futures crushing profit slightly rebounded [54]. 3.1.6 Production and Consumption - As of the 35th week (August 30), the domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate was 67.26%, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.063 million tons. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 35th week was 1.9941 million tons [61][65]. 3.2 Oils Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - International oils oscillated within a range, with U.S. soybean oil oscillating at the bottom and Malaysian palm oil oscillating at a high level. Domestic oils oscillated higher, with palm oil leading the rise on Friday [78]. 3.2.2 International Information - From January to July 2025, Indonesia exported 13.64 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, up 10.95% year - on - year. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% [80]. 3.2.3 Weather Conditions - Typhoons and monsoons brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and neighboring countries, benefiting rice and oil palms in the region [89]. 3.2.4 Price and Spread - The overall trend of oils this week was palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread slightly declined [117]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.7017 million tons, up 4.22% week - on - week [100]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis charts of U.S. soybeans, soybean meal, and various oils and meals are provided, but specific conclusions are not given [134][135][137]. 3.3.2 Next - Week Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: For soybean meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined. Similar situations apply to different oils [143]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the protein meal market, the USDA report is due next week, and there is a possibility of a decrease in U.S. soybean yields. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile. In the oils market, the MPOB report is coming, and the domestic oils market is expected to continue its strong - side oscillation [144].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The chlor-alkali - PVC industry is currently in a "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" situation. The downstream of caustic soda, such as the alumina industry, is more prosperous than the downstream of PVC, about 60% of whose terminal demand is related to real estate. The high - level operation rate of the alumina industry and new capacity additions in 2025 support the demand for caustic soda. As long as the profit of caustic soda can cover the loss of PVC, chlor - alkali integrated plants may maintain a high operation rate. The situation of strong caustic soda and weak PVC may continue until the real - estate market improves significantly or the comprehensive profit of upstream chlor - alkali integrated plants incurs continuous losses, forcing upstream production cuts [2][13][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain of Caustic Soda and PVC - **Caustic Soda**: Chemical name is sodium hydroxide (NaOH), with solid and liquid forms. The main production process is the ion - exchange membrane electrolysis method. Its cost mainly comes from electricity (60%) and raw salt (20%). It is mainly used in alumina production (over 30% consumption), and also widely used in other industries. Co - produced with it are liquid chlorine and hydrogen [4][5]. - **PVC**: A polymer of vinyl chloride monomer, mainly produced by the calcium carbide method (about 80% of production) and the ethylene method (about 20% of production) in China. Its downstream consumption is mainly in the construction industry (over 60% consumption) [5][6]. - **Chlor - Alkali Balance**: In the chlor - alkali production process, 1 ton of caustic soda is accompanied by 0.886 tons of liquid chlorine. The downstream demands of the two products are different. When caustic soda demand is good and its price rises, liquid chlorine production increases, and may lead to oversupply and price decline, resulting in the "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" situation [8]. 3.2 Current Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Caustic Soda and PVC - **Profit Situation**: About 90.9% of PVC production capacity in China is equipped with caustic soda production devices. The industry is in a "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" pattern. The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong in August 2025 was 1500 - 1700 yuan/ton, while PVC had a loss of (- 1000) - (- 250) yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, and in the northwest region was 1300 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][13][14]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China sample enterprises decreased by 6.37% from August 20 to August 27. The PVC inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, while the PVC inventory in production enterprise factories decreased [16][18]. - **Downstream Demand Situation**: The planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation from the end of 2024 to 2025 is 1230 tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of about 10%. The monthly production of viscose staple fiber has been increasing since June - August 2025, and its inventory is low. In August 2025, the PVC powder production increased by 4.62% compared with July, and the annual cumulative production from January - August increased by 2.67% compared with the same period in 2024. The PVC supply is expected to remain high in September, and the domestic demand is expected to improve slightly but limitedly [20][26][27]. 3.3 Market Outlook The situation of strong caustic soda and weak PVC may continue until the real - estate market improves significantly or the comprehensive profit of upstream chlor - alkali integrated plants incurs continuous losses, forcing upstream production cuts. Otherwise, the weak situation of PVC is difficult to change in the short term [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the global precious metals market has strengthened, with gold, silver, and platinum - group metals rising significantly. Platinum is expected to continue its strong upward trend driven by multiple factors such as tight supply - demand balance, weakening US dollar, inflow of speculative funds, and macro - policy uncertainties [4][6][73]. - The launch of Chinese platinum futures will provide more efficient risk - management tools for industrial chain enterprises, create more asset - allocation options for investors, and enhance China's pricing power in the global platinum market [6][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Precious Metals Sector Market Review - The global precious metals market has strengthened under the impetus of multiple factors. Gold, as a core safe - haven asset, reached a record high of $3,518.5 per ounce on September 1, with a cumulative increase of over 35% based on the annual peak. The main driving factors include geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of Fed rate cuts [4][9]. - Silver and platinum showed stronger growth, with platinum rising 66%, palladium 51%, and silver 42% based on the annual peak. The precious metals market presented a pattern of "gold leading the rise, platinum, palladium, and silver following, and sector rotation" [4][10]. 3.2 2025 Platinum Fundamental Market Analysis 3.2.1 2025 Platinum Supply Shows a Tightening Trend - **Primary Platinum Mine Supply**: The global platinum mine supply is highly concentrated, with 77% of the reserves in South Africa in 2024. Supply is vulnerable to disruptions. In 2025, global platinum mine supply is expected to decline by 6% to 543,000 ounces due to various factors such as South Africa's power shortages and North America's production cuts [14][24]. - **Recycled Platinum Supply**: In 2024, global recycled platinum increased slightly but remained at a historical low. In 2025, it is expected to grow by 3% to 157,000 ounces, but the increase is insufficient to offset the decline in primary supply [28][29]. - **China's Platinum Dilemma**: China has a high dependence on imports for platinum supply. In 2024, imports accounted for 85.7% of the total supply, mainly from South Africa. Supply faces external risks such as geopolitical changes and policy adjustments [35][36]. 3.2.2 Global Platinum Demand: Overall Decline in Total Demand, Expected to Drop 4% in 2025 - **Automotive Industry Demand**: The automotive industry is the largest demand area for platinum. In 2025, global automotive catalyst demand for platinum is expected to decrease by 2% to 305,200 ounces. The growth in some markets cannot offset the decline caused by the electrification of vehicles and the delay of emission standards [47]. - **Other Industrial Demand**: In 2025, global industrial platinum demand is expected to drop to 211,000 ounces, the lowest in six years, mainly due to the weakening of the glass and chemical industries [51]. - **Platinum Jewelry Demand**: In 2025, global jewelry platinum demand is expected to increase by 5% to 211,400 ounces, reaching a seven - year high. China's market shows significant growth [54]. - **Platinum Investment Demand**: In 2025, global physical platinum bar and coin investment demand is expected to increase by 30% to 25,200 ounces, with China as the core driving force [55]. 3.3 2025 Platinum Price Driving Factor Deduction - **Commodity Attribute**: The platinum market has been in a supply shortage for three consecutive years. In 2025, the shortage is expected to be 966,000 ounces, providing a solid foundation for price increases [59]. - **Financial Attribute**: The US dollar's weakness is a key factor driving up platinum prices. The US dollar has been under pressure this year, and the negative correlation between the US dollar index and platinum prices is expected to support platinum prices [62]. - **Investment Attribute**: Platinum has strong speculative attributes. After gold reached a high valuation, speculative funds flowed into platinum, leading to significant price increases [66]. - **Other Major Impacts**: Uncertainty in US tariff policies can cause significant fluctuations in the precious metals market. If the policy extends to platinum bars, it may have a similar or stronger impact on platinum prices [70][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand structure of the urea market has not improved substantially. The core contradiction lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate, and the urea futures main contract UR2601 is currently oscillating in the range of 1600 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to be cautious [50] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 25th - 29th, the urea futures main contract UR2601 oscillated, with a range increase of 0.29% and a range amplitude of 2.08% [6] - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 28th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11] 2. Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 81.73%, a 2.72% decrease from the previous week and a 6.55% increase year - on - year, still at a near - five - year high [16] - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 20.33 tons, a 2.43% increase from the previous week and a 5.41% decrease year - on - year [18] - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 108 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the weekly output of pipeline fertilizer gas - made urea is 27 tons, a 6.90% decrease from the previous week [22] Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: The capacity operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 41.12%, a 2.71% increase from the previous period and a 7.95% decrease compared to 2024 [25] - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 86.72 tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and an 11.58% increase compared to 2024 [29] - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 57.04%, a 10.26% increase from the previous week and a 6.38% decrease compared to 2024 [32] Inventory - side - **Inventory Situation**: Urea enterprise inventory is 100.3 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week; port inventory is 79.5 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week [35] Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 28th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to August 21st [40] - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - price anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. The current aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also flat compared to the previous period [42] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to October 2025, including data such as initial inventory, output, consumption, export, and supply - demand ratio [46] 3. Market Outlook - **Supply - side**: Under the joint promotion of the continuous implementation of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, high - load operation of production enterprises has become the norm. The overall urea supply continues to be in a loose pattern, and the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term [50] - **Demand - side**: Agricultural demand is limited, and industrial demand is gradually increasing but mainly for rigid needs. There is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [50] - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists [50] - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [50] - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term price may continue to fluctuate, and investors are advised to be cautious [50]