1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure and weaken. However, as the current price is close to the cost line, caution is advised regarding the downside space. Attention should be paid to various emergencies at the Guinea mine end [16][162][165]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term under the influence of macro - sentiment. A long - position approach is recommended [17][163][165]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term. A bullish approach is recommended [18][164][165]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important News**: In September, the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow, and the year - on - year increase of core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. Recently, the CBK in Guinea had an indefinite general strike, halting production and transportation [8]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,921.2 yuan/ton, down 43.5 yuan/ton from October 10. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from October 10 [11][29][63]. - **Supply Side**: As of October 16, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.56%, a slight decrease. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6148 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.84 million tons, and the operating capacity was 44.06 million tons [11][33][60]. - **Demand Side**: As of October 16, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, unchanged from the previous week. In August, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [11][73]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 16, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,846 yuan/ton, a decrease. The average profit of the alumina industry narrowed to around 80 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,171 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit remained above 4,700 yuan/ton [12][37][58]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the aluminum ingot inventory was 627,000 tons, a decrease, and the aluminum rod inventory was 148,000 tons, an increase. As of October 17, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [12][77][82]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. Looking forward, alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term [15][16][17] 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: The domestic alumina spot price continued to decline this week, and the spot premium narrowed [29]. - **Supply**: The weekly operating rate of alumina decreased slightly. In September, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month [33]. - **Import and Export**: The alumina import window remained open, increasing the supply pressure on the domestic market [34]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and price of alumina decreased, and the industry profit continued to narrow [37]. - **Inventory**: The alumina port inventory was at a low level, and the social inventory continued to accumulate [44][45]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: Coal and pre - baked anode prices increased, but the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost decreased due to the continuous decline in alumina cost [50][55][58]. - **Supply**: The supply capacity of primary aluminum remained at a high level. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month [60]. - **Spot**: The aluminum spot price decreased this week [63]. - **Price and Premium**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly with a spot discount, while LME aluminum oscillated strongly with a spot premium [69]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises remained stable, and the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in August rose above the boom - bust line [73]. - **Inventory**: Aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking this week, and the aluminum water ratio rose to 76% in September [77]. - **Futures Inventory**: The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [82]. - **Import and Export**: The profit window for aluminum ingot imports was closed, and the year - on - year decline in aluminum product exports continued [86][95]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market was slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles was relatively bright [97][103]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the price of scrap aluminum was strong. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum varied in different regions [110][111][114]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy was affected by scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper. The spot price of ADC12 varied in different regions [118][124]. - **Import and Export and Supply**: The import profit of overseas ADC12 was affected by price differences. The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy had their own trends [128][135]. - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy was mainly from the automotive industry, with obvious seasonal characteristics [139][142][149]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy and the factory inventory of sample enterprises of recycled aluminum alloy had their own changes [151]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy showed different situations [155]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - **Macro Factors**: In the next week, domestic LPR data will be released, and the 18th meeting of the 14th NPC Standing Committee will be held. Overseas, the US September CPI data will be announced. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum prices [162]. - **Alumina**: With the weakening of the rainy - season impact in Guinea, the decline in alumina cost may further reduce the bottom support. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [162]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market is certain about the Fed's October interest rate cut, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" is approaching. The aluminum price has upward driving force, but the high industry profit may limit further price increases [163]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The strong aluminum price will drive the aluminum alloy price up, and the demand for aluminum alloy will be supported by the automotive industry in the fourth quarter [164].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Short - term Volatility and Adjustment of Shanghai Copper, Bullish Outlook in the Medium Term - Guoxin Futures Non - ferrous (Copper) Weekly Report" dated October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - From October 13 to October 17, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 84,390 yuan/ton, a 1.77% decline compared to October 10 [6] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 84,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton from October 10, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed to 10 yuan/ton [66] - **Supply - side**: In August 2025, SMM's China electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. China's refined copper imports in August 2025 were 307,228.23 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14% [66] - **Demand - side**: As of October 16, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 62.5%, and that of recycled copper rod was 18.29% [66] - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the electrolytic copper inventory was 177,500 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from October 9. As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic copper warehouse receipt inventory was 42,849 tons, an increase of 12,885 tons from October 10. From October 10 to October 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,900 tons to 137,450 tons, and COMEX electrolytic copper inventory increased by 3,366 tons to 311,378 tons [66] Group 4: Market Outlook - Codelco raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $325/ton, a record high. The premiums in 2024 and 2025 were $234/ton [66] - In the macro - aspect, the release of the latest US CPI data is postponed to October 24. The market is certain about the Fed's interest rate cut in October and believes the probability of further cuts is high, which will support copper prices. Supply disruptions at the mine end and low copper processing and refining fees will also support copper prices. However, the market's high - price aversion in procurement may limit price increases, leading to short - term high - level volatility. Overall, Shanghai copper is expected to show a bullish trend in the medium term [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short - term, with support around 13,000 yuan/ton and resistance around 13,500 yuan/ton. Internationally, U.S. cotton remains weak due to Sino - U.S. tensions but has some buying support at low levels and is also boosted by the weak dollar [57]. - The recommended trading strategy is short - term trading [58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly this week with a weekly increase of 0.08%, while ICE cotton futures declined and then recovered, with a weekly decrease of 0.1% [11]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index dropped. The 3128 index fell by 75 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped by 96 yuan/ton [16]. - **Import Situation**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons from the second half of August [22]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [29]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices fell. The price of rotor - spun 10 - count cotton yarn decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 134. There were 2,724 warehouse receipts and 112 valid forecasts, totaling 2,836 [40]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly compared to last week [46]. - **U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 19,000 bales [48][51]. - **U.S. Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. accounted for 34.2% [54]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton maintained a low - level oscillating trend this week. Seed cotton purchase prices rose, but the quality and lint percentage in northern Xinjiang declined. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending, and downstream orders are insufficient, so Zhengzhou cotton is likely to continue oscillating [57]. - **International Market**: The U.S. government shutdown led to data suspension, and Sino - U.S. relations became the focus. Tensions between the two countries suppressed U.S. cotton, but there was buying support at low levels and the weak dollar provided some boost [57].

Report Information - Report Title: Zheng Sugar Weakens Again, Supply Pressure is High - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Domestic market: Zheng sugar followed the external market down significantly, breaking below the support around 5,400 yuan/ton. Although it showed signs of stabilization later in the week, domestic sugar sales are behind year-on-year, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. New season beet sugar production may be slightly lower, and cane area output may also decline due to typhoons. Import data is expected to remain high but may be lower than expected. Zheng sugar has support at 5,400 yuan/ton, but the rebound space is limited under fundamental pressure [57]. - International market: Higher-than-expected supply from Brazil and a bumper harvest in India have led to early digestion of supply pressure, causing ICE sugar prices to break below the support around 15.5 cents/pound. However, prices rebounded quickly and returned above 15.5 cents/pound. Despite strong Brazilian production data, the market did not continue to fall, mainly due to the decline in the sugar - making ratio. New negative factors are needed to break below 15 cents/pound [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices: Zheng sugar broke through support and then fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.55% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific analysis text is provided, only data sources are mentioned [11][12]. 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No specific analysis text is provided, only data sources are mentioned [17][18]. 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In August, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 16 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,477 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,688 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,421 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,615 yuan/ton [22]. 3.1.5 Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in August was about 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25]. 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,438, a decrease of 460 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,438, and the valid forecast was 0 [33]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of September, the cumulative crushing volume was 490 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.99%, and the sugar production was 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [37]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.68%, compared to 48.84% in the same period last year [42]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in September were 3.2458 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [48]. 3.1.10 International Main Producing Region Weather - In Brazil, there was abundant rainfall in the main producing areas, which was not conducive to sugarcane crushing. In India, precipitation decreased significantly [54]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: Zheng sugar may continue to be under pressure from fundamentals, with limited rebound space. Although there is support at 5,400 yuan/ton, the overall situation is not optimistic. - International market: ICE sugar prices have shown some resilience after breaking support, and new negative factors are needed to drive prices lower [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, OPEC+ shifted its crude oil production policy from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "increasing production to seize market share", and the change in OPEC+ production policy has become an important event to continuously track on the supply side of the oil market [1][16]. - After the end of the peak oil consumption season in September, demand declined, but the pressure of oversupply was not fully apparent. With the weakening demand and the pressure of OPEC+ to increase production, the expectation of global crude oil oversupply may gradually be confirmed starting from October, the pressure of crude oil inventory accumulation will increase, commercial crude oil inventory may turn into an accumulation trend, and the pressure of global crude oil oversupply will gradually emerge, and the center of oil prices may continue to decline [1][16]. - The signing of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has eased the situation in the Middle East, and combined with the recent escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, international oil prices have continued to weaken recently [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Exceeds Demand - In September 2025, global crude oil supply was 108.49 million barrels per day, and demand was 104.61 million barrels per day, showing a supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the expected global oil supply is 107.31 million barrels per day, and the expected demand is 104.72 million barrels per day, also with supply exceeding demand [4]. - OPEC expects that with strong economic activity boosting transportation fuel demand, global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, and OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels [6]. - Before the National Day, the market expected that Saudi Arabia would lead OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 - 500,000 barrels per day, but at the October 5th OPEC+ meeting, it was decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same as in October, which was lower than market expectations [8][9]. 3.2 Record - High US Crude Oil Production - As of the week ending October 3, the daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels from the previous week and 229,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week average daily production as of October 3 was 13.529 million barrels, 1.9% higher than the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending October 3, the number of active US oil - drilling rigs was 422, 2 less than the previous week and 57 less than the same period last year [10]. 3.3 Fourth - Quarter Crude Oil Enters the Off - Season of Consumption - Due to possible increases in OPEC+ production, reduced crude oil processing by global refineries during maintenance, and seasonal decline in future demand, oil inventory accumulation will accelerate. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.72 million barrels from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Frictions - In September and October 2025, the US imposed export controls on Chinese enterprises, and China also took counter - measures such as export controls and antitrust investigations. The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions may have a negative impact on the global economy and suppress global crude oil demand growth [15]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - The change in OPEC+ production policy, the end of the peak consumption season, the decline in refinery demand, and the pressure of OPEC+ to increase production may lead to a gradual confirmation of the oversupply situation starting from October, an increase in inventory accumulation pressure, and a possible further decline in the center of oil prices [1][16].

Group 1: Report Core View - The rubber price shows a volatile and bearish trend. Sino-US trade friction has escalated, which may suppress the rubber price. The supply-side pressure is not fully released in the short term, and the demand-side has limited guidance for the rubber price. Technically, the rubber price will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the stabilization opportunity [3][85][86] Group 2: Market Review - Analyzed the weekly trends of Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, synthetic rubber main contract, futures active contract RU - NR spread, synthetic rubber BR spot - futures basis, and futures RU - BR spread, with data sources including Boyiyun and WIND [11][14][17] Group 3: Rubber Fundamental Analysis Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In August 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 1% to 1.256 million tons. In 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and the consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [33][37][38] - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase from the same period in 2024 [42] - As of the week of October 3, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area was 454,400 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous period [50] Demand - Side - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase from the previous year [53] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase [56] - As of the week of October 9, the operating load of Shandong's all - steel tire enterprises was 43.96%, a 21.76% decrease from the previous week; the operating load of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 46.51%, a 27.07% decrease from the previous week [60] - In August 2025, the heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to August, the heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 14%, and the annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [70] - At the end of August 2025, China's all - steel tire total inventory was 10.19 million pieces, and the semi - steel tire total inventory was 18.53 million pieces, both showing a slight month - on - month decrease [73] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of October 11, the intended transaction price of SCRWF mainstream goods in the Shanghai market was 14,300 - 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 15,050 - 15,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [85] - Sino - US trade friction has escalated, which may suppress the rubber price. The supply - side pressure is not fully released in the short term, and the demand - side has limited guidance for the rubber price. Technically, the rubber price will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the stabilization opportunity [85][86]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the short - term price of asphalt futures will continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner, with the international oil price under pressure and acting as the main driving force for asphalt futures, and the price center fluctuating with crude oil [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) fluctuated downward from October 9th to 10th, with an interval decline of 2.12% and an interval amplitude of 2.44% [9]. - Relevant data on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference are presented, but specific data trends are not described in detail [13][17][21]. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong refineries is - 471.49 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei refineries is - 413.44 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction) [27]. - **Price Difference**: On October 10th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the SC*6.6 main contract was 279.46 yuan/ton, up 21.48 yuan/ton from September 30th. On October 9th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 184.34 yuan/ton, up 2.36 yuan/ton from September 30th [31][34]. - **Production**: The operating rate of China's heavy - traffic asphalt was 40.1%, a week - on - week increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The weekly output was 70.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.49% and a year - on - year increase of 44.24%. The weekly operating rate of Shandong asphalt was 51.7%, a week - on - week increase of 15.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The weekly output was 26.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.74% and a year - on - year increase of 61.98% [38][40][43][46]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a week - on - week decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [50]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%. The weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 75.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.90%. In Shandong, the in - plant inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64% [53][56]. - **Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days in China are provided, with heavy rainfall in many regions [60]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The supply shows a significant recovery. After the holiday, as major refineries resume production, the national asphalt operating rate is expected to continue to rise, and the market supply will be loose [68]. - **Demand**: The demand is differentiated. The demand in the northern market is currently supported by road project rush - work but is expected to weaken with the temperature drop. The demand in the southern market is stable due to project start - up and payment issues [68]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory shows a short - term destocking trend, while the in - plant inventory increases [68]. - **Cost**: Weak economic data and seasonal off - season suppress the demand for US crude oil and gasoline, increasing the pressure on oil inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on international oil prices [69]. - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner and breaks through the oscillation range formed since late August [69].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton Under Pressure, New Cotton Gradually Coming to Market - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Domestically, after the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded with fluctuations, reaching a maximum of 13,420 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton increased slightly. As the purchase of seed cotton fully unfolds, the supply pressure gradually increases, and hedging currently has a small profit, significantly suppressing Zhengzhou cotton. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton tried to rebound but was pressured around 13,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton [53]. - Internationally, due to the U.S. government shutdown and data suspension, the market sentiment is cautious, and market fluctuations may be limited before data resumes. Fundamentally, countries such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh face significant resistance in exporting cotton products and clothing to the U.S. due to substantial tariff increases. As a countermeasure, they will increase purchases of Brazilian cotton, and U.S. cotton exports face certain challenges. It is expected that U.S. cotton will be under pressure and remain weak [53]. Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Prices - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. ICE cotton futures continued to be weak, with a weekly decline of 1.45% [9]. Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose by 17 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 4 yuan/ton [13]. Import Situation - In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons [18]. Inventory Situation - As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons compared to the second half of August [19]. Downstream Inventory - In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year-on-year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year-on-year increase of 4.11 days [26]. Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices decreased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 155 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn decreased by 150 yuan/ton [31]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 554. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,030, and the valid forecasts were 11, totaling 3,041 [37]. Seed Cotton Purchase - The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased slightly compared to the previous week [42]. U.S. Cotton Exports - As of September 11, the current - year net export sales of U.S. upland cotton increased by 186,100 bales, and the next - year net export sales were 19,000 bales [44][47]. U.S. Weather - The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 34.2%, with different drought levels having varying proportions [50]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has support around 13,000 yuan/ton and significant pressure around 13,500 yuan/ton in the short term [53]. - Internationally, the market may have limited fluctuations before data resumes, and U.S. cotton exports face challenges and are expected to remain weak [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar prices are rising moderately. Two typhoons have significantly affected sugar - cane growing areas, with varying degrees of damage in different regions. Despite the weak international market, domestic prices are firm as they digest the impact of the typhoons but lack the momentum for continuous upward movement, and are expected to remain range - bound between 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton [60]. - In the international market, due to the optimistic supply outlook from India, the expectation of a global sugar supply surplus has increased, putting significant pressure on international sugar prices. India's exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be between 100 - 200 million tons. Brazilian rainfall has alleviated fire concerns but will affect short - term sugarcane pressing. Overall, international sugar prices are limited by supply pressure on the upside and have some cost support on the downside, with an expected trading range of 15.5 - 17 cents/pound [60]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a slight oscillation with a weekly increase of 0.05%, while ICE sugar futures trended downward with a weekly decline of 1.52% [11]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific summary content is provided in the text. - **Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan**: No specific summary content is provided in the text. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In August, sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar 03 - month contract price of 16 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4477 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5688 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand is 4421 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5615 yuan/ton [24]. - **Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in August was about 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [27]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 10,629, a decrease of 1116 from the previous week. There were 10,629 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [35]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of September, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 450 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68%, and the sugar production was 30.388 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% [39]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.85%, compared to 48.95% in the same period last year [44]. - **Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports**: In September, Brazil's sugar exports were 3.2458 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [50]. - **International Main - producing Area Weather Conditions**: In Brazil, the significant increase in rainfall in the main - producing areas is unfavorable for sugarcane pressing. In India, precipitation has decreased significantly [55][57]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The domestic market will digest the impact of typhoons, with prices remaining firm but lacking continuous upward momentum, expected to range between 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton. - The international market is pressured by India's expected supply surplus, with prices limited on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, expected to range between 15.5 - 17 cents/pound.

Group 1: Report Core View - The iron ore market rebounded slightly this week, and market sentiment improved. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory increased, while the steel mill inventory decreased. The daily average molten iron production remained high, and the demand for iron ore is resilient. The operation strategy is to participate in the short - term. [46] Group 2: Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - The market sentiment warmed up, and iron ore rebounded from a low level. [9] - The price changes of iron ore spot varieties are as follows: PB powder rose from 784 to 821, Super Special powder rose from 712 to 917, Jinbuba powder rose from 754 to 904, Ba Hun rose from 821 to 845, Mike rose from 775 to 842, and Newman rose from 779 to 840. [13] 2. Basis and Spread - The iron ore futures - spot price spread situation: the main basis is - 6.5, 01 - 05 is 19.5, pb - super special is 72, and Ba Cu - pb is 9. The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak. [19][22] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1.9922 million tons this week. The utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity was 59.89%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. [28] - **International Freight**: The iron ore freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.37 US dollars/ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.98 US dollars/ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1923. [31] - **Inventory - Imported Ore**: The port inventory is 140.245 million tons, the Australian ore inventory is 57.8043 million tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 55.3653 million tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 22.694 million tons, and the trading ore inventory is 91.4492 million tons. [34] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: The port inventory of iron ore this week is 140.245 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 242,200 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 90.4916 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.906 million tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills are 21 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 days. [38] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron production this week is 2.4154 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons. The daily average dredging volume remains at a relatively high level, and the molten iron production remains high, showing stronger resilience than expected. [41] 4. Outlook for the Future - The iron ore market rebounded slightly this week with improved market sentiment. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The daily average molten iron production remained high, and the demand for iron ore is resilient. The operation strategy is to participate in the short - term. [46]