1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year, with production increasing by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons and demand growing by 1.7% to 15.6 million tons. The prices are likely to remain firm. [35] - The cost support for rubber prices is obvious in the short - term, and the trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday. However, there are concerns about the weak export market of tires due to unstable trade environment. [83] - The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future. It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents the weekly - line trends of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber RU, NR, and synthetic rubber, as well as the spot price trends of whole - milk RU, Thai raw material acquisition prices, the spread trends between RU - NR and RU - BR, and the basis of synthetic rubber BR [6][9][11] 3.2 Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In 2026, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons, with Thailand's production remaining stable and India's production continuing to decline. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 16.7% year - on - year, and Thailand's exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao is increasing. [29][35][38] - **Demand - side**: In 2025, China's rubber tire production increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 3.6% year - on - year. In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in production year - on - year and a decrease in sales year - on - year. The export of automobiles continued to grow. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in January 2026 increased by 38.6% year - on - year. [49][52][60] - **Production and inventory of synthetic rubber**: In 2025, China's synthetic rubber production decreased by 20.3% year - on - year. [77] 3.3 Market Outlook - The overseas natural rubber production areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and the cost support for rubber prices is obvious. The trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday, but there are concerns about the weak tire export market. The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future, and it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to decline, while bond prices are expected to rise. Stock index futures may stabilize due to domestic positive policies, with a suggestion to hold light long positions. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, light long positions are also recommended [116][118] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices have fallen from high levels [9] - The CSI 500 index has also fallen from high levels, while treasury bond futures have continued to rebound [14] 2. Market Momentum Analysis - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have declined [19] - The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have decreased [22] - The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan [26] - The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have significantly dropped [30] - The sectors of the CSI 300 are relatively consistent [37] - The ALPHA values of the energy, materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors of the CSI 300 are positive, while those of the optional, consumer, pharmaceutical, financial, and information sectors are negative [40] - In February, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 5 [45] 3. Fundamental Major Events - The implied repo rate (IRR) of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [78][80] - The weighted inter - bank repo rate has slightly declined [86] - The short - term Shibor has slightly dropped [91] - In January, the CPI was 0.2%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.4% [95] - In February, the PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, indicating weak economic recovery [99] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, showing a decline in consumption data [104] - Consumer confidence is on an upward trend [108] - In January, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9%, and credit accelerated. M1 was 4.9%. The newly added RMB loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan [111][112] 4. Outlook for the Future - The trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, with less than 2.2 trillion yuan. Due to the intensification of the US - Iran war, global capital markets have declined significantly. However, with the continuous introduction of positive policies during the Two Sessions in China, the stock market is expected to stabilize. It is recommended to hold light long positions in stock index futures. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low domestic market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, it is also recommended to hold light long positions [118]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current US-Iran conflict only affects the methanol market from the emotional and expected aspects, without substantial long-term supply interruption. High inventory and sufficient domestic production capacity form a strong safety buffer, and price fluctuations are mainly short-term pulses. Key attention should be paid to the two core risks of unexpected conflict escalation and lower-than-expected downstream demand. [45] 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Market Review - **Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends**: The main methanol contract MA2605 closed at 2,580 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 18% and a position of 820,000 lots. The basis strengthened slightly but remained at a discount. [6] - **Methanol Spot Prices in Various Regions and Price Differences between Production and Sales Areas**: The methanol spot market rose overall this week. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2,355 yuan/ton, a 5.84% increase from last week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1,918 yuan/ton, a 3.51% increase from the previous week. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, there was an expectation of reduced supply. Some olefin enterprises made periodic purchases, and the overall trading center of the market moved up. However, the overall trading volume was relatively limited, and some industry players remained on the sidelines. The increase in coastal areas was higher than that in inland areas, and the price difference between production and sales areas widened. [9] - **Methanol Foreign Prices and Domestic-Foreign Price Differences**: Globally, methanol prices rose to varying degrees. This week, the reference negotiation price for non-Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far future was 274 - 310 US dollars/ton, and Iranian cargoes lacked active offers. The price in South Korea rose to around 380 US dollars/ton, and the European methanol price was 355 - 360 euros/ton, a 17.74% increase from the beginning of the week. [12] Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of March 5, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from last week but a 5.72 percentage point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.93%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from last week and a 3.96 percentage point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest decreased slightly this week, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance. [16] - **Import and Transshipment Arbitrage Windows**: Both the import and transshipment arbitrage windows were closed. [17] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The coastal methanol inventory this week was 1.4133 million tons, still at a relatively high level in history. It increased by 14,600 tons from last week, a 1.04% increase, and was 35.76% higher than the same period last year. The estimated available methanol supply in coastal areas was 724,000 tons. The overall提货 volume in Taicang this week increased compared with last week, and the提货 volume of ship cargoes and road transport increased steadily. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships in China from early to mid-March will be 270,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the arrival of methanol cargoes from the Middle East in the later period. [22] - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: Tensions in the situation have raised concerns about the energy supply security in the Middle East, causing international crude oil and natural gas prices to rise, which has increased the cost of imported methanol. [24] - **Methanol's Upstream - Coal**: The domestic thermal coal market rose first and then fell this week. Most coal mines in production had good sales, and the pithead prices continued to be adjusted strongly. However, the downstream's acceptance of high prices declined, and the procurement rhythm slowed down. Some coal mines with relatively fast cumulative price increases in the early stage had relatively large price corrections. The profit of coal-to-methanol production has been repaired, and coal-to-methanol enterprises have a strong willingness to start production. [29] - **Methanol's Downstream Prices and Operating Rates**: The operating loads of dimethyl ether, methylal, acetic acid, and formaldehyde increased, while the demand for olefins was weak. The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was 72%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was 55.6%, a 7.52% increase from the previous week. [31][32] - **Methanol's Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: Not elaborated in detail in the report - **Methanol's Downstream - MTO**: The average operating load of methanol-to-olefin plants this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 2.14 percentage points from last week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 70.29%, the same as last week. This week, the olefin plant in Shaanxi was under maintenance, and the operating load of domestic CTO/MTO decreased. Among the externally purchased plants, Ningbo Fude and Chengzhi Phase II planned to reduce their loads, Sierbang and Xingxing had not restarted yet, and the two sets of equipment of Lianhong were operating at low loads. The operating conditions of coastal externally purchased plants were average, and the demand side remained weak. [42] Part 3: Future Outlook - **Short-term Operation**: Driven by events, closely monitor the development of the situation. The market is volatile and prone to fluctuations, so avoid blindly chasing high prices. - **Medium-term Operation**: Wait for the layout window after the emotional impact fades, and pay attention to the convergence of the 5 - 9 spread. Anchor on the fundamentals (core fundamental data such as port inventory, downstream operating rate, and domestic plant load). After the geopolitical sentiment fades and the price falls to a reasonable range, conduct trend layout based on the supply - demand pattern, and do not participate in highly uncertain emotional games. [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International and domestic oil prices have risen significantly this week, and the upward trend of domestic oils will continue in the short - term before the Middle East situation eases and the upward trend of international crude oil and oils ends [6] - The market is concerned about the decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. The Middle East situation is a key factor affecting the market. If it eases, international oils may return to their fundamentals and give back premiums; if it continues to ferment, international oils may remain strong. Domestic oils follow international trends, and attention should be paid to the changes in the positions of the three major vegetable oil contracts [62] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 1.1 Oil Market Review - International oils rose significantly this week, with US soybean oil hitting new highs. The fermentation of the Middle East situation led to higher international crude oil prices, making biodiesel production profitable and increasing the demand for US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil also showed a catch - up rise. In the domestic market, rapeseed oil led the rise at the beginning of the week, followed by palm oil, and soybean oil rose moderately. Currently, the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil have broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and palm oil is catching up [6] 1.2 Recent International Oil Information - Indian palm oil imports in February increased to 844,000 tons, a 10.1% increase from January; soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% to 303,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 45.3% to 146,000 tons [10] - Malaysia's palm oil production in February was estimated to be 1.32 million tons, a 16.24% month - on - month decrease [10] - India cancelled about 25,000 tons of Russian soybean oil orders and 6,000 - 8,000 tons of South American soybean oil orders [10] - Brent crude oil futures rose for the fifth consecutive day, and European diesel futures reached the highest level since October 2022. Rising oil prices increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material [11] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February is expected to decline for the second consecutive month to the lowest level in four months [11] - Malaysia's palm oil production in February decreased by 19.35% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data [11] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in February were 852,629 tons, a 9.8% decrease from January [12] 1.3 Southeast Asian Weather - Not provided in the document 1.4 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the document 1.5 Oil Internal - External Price Difference Analysis - Not provided in the document 1.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0236 million tons, a 2.23% week - on - week increase and a 7.93% year - on - year decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0151 million tons, a 5.05% week - on - week decrease and a 5.22% year - on - year decrease; palm oil inventory was 714,300 tons, an 8.49% week - on - week increase and a 96.07% year - on - year increase; rapeseed oil inventory was 294,300 tons, a 16.79% week - on - week increase and a 61.41% year - on - year decrease [28] 1.7 Oil Basis Analysis - Not provided in the document 1.8 Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall trend of oils is palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread has dropped significantly [45] 1.9 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil rebounded significantly [49] Part 2: Future Outlook 2.1 Seasonal Analysis - Not provided in the document 2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technical level (main contracts): The short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean oil are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled; the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of palm oil are bullish; the short - term and medium - term indicators of rapeseed oil are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [61] - Fundamental level: In the international market, the MPOB and USDA reports will be released next week, and the market is concerned about the decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. The Middle East situation is a key factor. If it eases, international oils may return to fundamentals; if it continues to ferment, they may remain strong. Domestic oils follow international trends. Pay attention to the position changes of the three major vegetable oil contracts, and reduce long positions if there is a reduction [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the CBOT soybean market continued to rise, driven by the continuous increase in international crude oil prices and the new highs of US soybean oil. The domestic Dalian soybean meal market also rose significantly. The cost increase brought by the rise of US soybeans and the fall of the RMB offset the decline of the Brazilian premium, and the increase of Dalian soybean meal was less than that of the external market. The market showed a strong trend [6]. - The export inspection volume of US soybeans increased compared with the previous week. The export inspection volume of US soybeans to China also increased, and the proportion of the week's total export inspection volume reached 64.58% [10]. - The rainfall in most parts of Brazil was moderate to extremely heavy, while the southern part was relatively dry. The drought in northern Argentina was alleviated by rainfall, but the central and southern parts were still facing drought pressure, which had an impact on the growth of soybeans and corn [20]. - The estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in March 2026 is 16.09 million tons, an increase of 2.3% compared with the same period in 2025. However, multiple Brazilian consulting agencies have lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, mainly due to the adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul [29]. - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans improved significantly this week. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.0568 million tons, and the theoretical number of days for port - imported soybean inventory to be crushed is 32 days [44]. - Next week, the USDA report will be released. The market should focus on the export, inventory of US soybeans, and the adjustment space of South American soybean production. The price of US soybeans will continue to be strong, but if the Middle - East situation eases, the CBOT soybean may return to its fundamentals. The domestic soybean meal market is running strongly, but attention should be paid to the pressure of hedging positions and the movement of funds [79]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, the CBOT soybean market continued to rise, and the domestic Dalian soybean meal market also rose significantly. The cost increase brought by the rise of US soybeans and the fall of the RMB offset the decline of the Brazilian premium, and the increase of Dalian soybean meal was less than that of the external market. On Friday, Dalian soybean meal increased in position and price, and the market was worried that the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in March might be less than expected and about the quality of Brazilian soybeans, so Dalian soybean meal and the No. 2 yellow soybean contract rose together [6]. - **US Market - US Soybean Export Situation**: As of the week of February 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 11.3758 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The export inspection volume of US soybeans to China also increased, and the proportion of the week's total export inspection volume reached 64.58% [10]. - **South American Market - Brazil and Argentina**: In Brazil, most areas had moderate to extremely heavy rainfall, while the southern part was relatively dry. The drought in northern Argentina was alleviated by rainfall, but the central and southern parts were still facing drought pressure, which had an impact on the growth of soybeans and corn [20]. - **Domestic and International Oilseed Markets**: The estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in March 2026 is 16.09 million tons, an increase of 2.3% compared with the same period in 2025. Multiple Brazilian consulting agencies have lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, mainly due to the adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. The 2025/26 soybean production forecast in Argentina remains unchanged at 48 million tons, a 5% decrease from the 2024/25 season. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 7.7 million tons, a 20% increase from the previous year [29][30][31]. - **Soybean - South American Soybean Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The soybean sowing progress in Argentina is close to completion, and the overall progress is 99.5%. The Brazilian soybean harvesting progress is about 41.7%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the five - year average [35][37]. - **Soybean - Port Inventory and Crushing Profit**: The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans improved significantly this week. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.0568 million tons, and the theoretical number of days for port - imported soybean inventory to be crushed is 32 days. It is expected that the theoretical inventory of port soybeans will be 5.04 million tons next weekend [44]. - **Soybean - Import Cost and Internal - External Price Difference**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4,582 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3,792 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium declined slightly this week [48]. - **Soybean Meal - Soybean Operating Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of the end of the 9th week (February 28), the soybean operating rate of domestic main soybean oil mills increased compared with the previous week, but it was still at a very low level. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 710,400 tons, a decrease of 150,500 tons from the previous week, a 17.48% month - on - month decrease [52]. - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption**: The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 9th week was 869,900 tons, compared with 95,000 tons in the same period last week [54]. - **Soybean Meal - Basis Analysis**: The domestic soybean meal spot was relatively weak this week, and the soybean meal basis declined significantly [57]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Operating Rate and Crushing Volume**: As of the end of the 9th week (February 28), the operating rate of domestic main oil mills' imported rapeseed increased compared with the previous week, but it was still almost at a standstill. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal for crushing was 6,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous week, an 8.33% month - on - month increase [59]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis**: There is no specific content about the basis analysis of rapeseed meal in the text. - **Arbitrage Relationship between Oil and Oilseed Varieties**: This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans increased slightly, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts continued to recover, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts declined slightly [65]. - **Arbitrage Relationship of Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread**: This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased slightly [70]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: There are seasonal index charts of US soybeans, US soybean meal, Dalian soybean meal, and live pigs, but no specific analysis content is provided [73][76]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: - **Technical Level**: For the main contracts, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of rapeseed meal are bullish, the medium - term indicators are entangled, and the long - term indicators are bearish [78]. - **Fundamentals**: In the international market, the USDA report will be released next week. The market should focus on the export, inventory of US soybeans, and the adjustment space of South American soybean production. The price of US soybeans will continue to be strong, but if the Middle - East situation eases, the CBOT soybean may return to its fundamentals. In the domestic market, the domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of weak spot and strong futures. The Dalian soybean meal market is running strongly due to the cost drive of the continuous rise of US soybeans and the uncertainty of the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the future. As the price rises, the pressure of hedging positions will gradually appear. Attention should be paid to the position. Once the funds leave the market, long positions should be reduced. It is recommended to operate quickly and take profits in time [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued the low - level oscillation pattern. The weak downstream demand restricted the upward movement of the market. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it is necessary to observe the de - stocking situation. The cost side of pulp prices still has some support. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before considering light - position trial long positions [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued the low - level oscillation pattern. The weak downstream demand restricted the upward movement of the market [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of March 5, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from the previous week, turning from an increase to a decrease; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,572 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous week, also turning from an increase to a decrease [12] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. From January to December, the accumulated import volume and value increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.3887 million tons, a 1.43% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 11.87 percentage points [20] - **European Port Pulp Inventory in January**: In January 2026, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 14.72% month - on - month and 11.34% compared with January 2025. The port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 8.21%, 7.15%, 7.55%, 22.47%, and 47.16% respectively month - on - month [23] - **Downstream Pulp Species Operating Rate**: Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of March 5, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 9.89 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 6.94 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 3.42 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 15.50 percentage points from the previous week. After the Spring Festival, downstream paper enterprises resumed work, and the weekly operating rate of pulp species generally increased [30] 3.3 Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it is necessary to observe the de - stocking situation. The operating rate of pulp species generally increased week - on - week after the Spring Festival. The cost side of pulp prices still has some support. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before considering light - position trial long positions [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar showed a slightly stronger and upward - trending oscillation this week. Supported by external cost and undervaluation repair, along with a slowdown in supply at the end of the domestic sugar - making season and post - holiday replenishment demand, the sugar price maintained a strong oscillation. However, factors such as slow sugar sales in Yunnan, high industrial and commercial inventories, and industrial hedging funds limited the upward space. Policy expectations of stricter import control supported the sugar price. In the international market, the international sugar market was affected by macro - economic fluctuations, with geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar's high - level operation pressured commodities. The global sugar supply was abundant, and the sugar price had weak rebound momentum. In the short term, the international raw sugar continued the weak oscillation, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to Brazil's production policies and weather changes in major producing areas [56]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong oscillation with a weekly increase of 0.79%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level with a weekly decline of 1.51% [11]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not provided with specific analysis content, only data sources are given [14] 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not provided with specific analysis content, only data sources are given [16] 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In December, sugar imports were 580,000 tons, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,019 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,090 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4,078 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,166 yuan per ton [22]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in January was about 4.19 million tons, an increase of 432,200 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,170, an increase of 1,221 compared with last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 14,585, and the number of valid forecasts was 2,585 [33]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of January, the cumulative crushing volume was 602 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%, and the sugar production was 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [37]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern part of Brazil was 50.74%, compared with 48.14% in the same period last year [42]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In January, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0175 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [47]. 3.1.10 International Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - There was abundant rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas, which was beneficial to sugarcane growth. There was almost no precipitation in India, which was beneficial to sugarcane pressing [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar maintained a strong oscillation. In the international market, the international raw sugar continued the weak oscillation in the short term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to Brazil's production policies and weather changes in major producing areas. The operation suggestion is short - term trading [56][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton adjusted slightly this week. The situation between the US and Iran suppressed Zhengzhou cotton prices. Domestic policies are stable with a loosening tendency. The textile industry has entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", but the recovery of orders is slow. Downstream demand is mainly for replenishing inventory as needed, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is low. The inventory of cotton yarn is slowly decreasing, and the cost - transmission channel is blocked. In terms of industrial fundamentals, domestic new cotton sales are coming to an end, industrial and commercial inventories are lower than the same period last year, and inventory pressure is gradually easing. The expectation of a significant reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season continues to ferment, providing support for cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices are difficult to break the oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, with the start of spring sowing and the gradual realization of peak - season demand, the price center is expected to move up steadily [52]. - Internationally, the global macro - environment is oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index is at a high level, suppressing the valuation of commodities. Overseas textile demand is recovering weakly, and the operating rate of Southeast Asian textile enterprises is low. The international cotton market is under pressure. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the export progress of US cotton is slow, and overseas purchasing willingness is low. There is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices [52]. - The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index declined. The 3128 index decreased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index also decreased by 130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year [20]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In the first half of February, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.5037 million tons, and the commercial inventory reached a turning point [21]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In January, the yarn inventory was 21.71 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.05 days. The grey fabric inventory was 33.13 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained the same as last week, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn increased by 230 yuan/ton compared with last week [33]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 227. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,390, the valid forecast was 1,253, and the total was 12,643 [38]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase Situation**: The report shows the trend of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices, but no specific summary data is provided [41]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of February 26, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 150,000 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 54,600 bales [46]. - **US Weather Situation**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.0%, moderate drought is 25.3%, severe drought is 14.8%, extreme drought is 5.5%, and exceptional drought is 0.3%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 45.9% [49]. 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, short - term cotton prices are in an oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to move up steadily. Internationally, the international cotton market is under pressure, and there is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [52][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of high - quality apples is in short - supply, and there is a high probability that the market for different - quality apple supplies will continue to diverge. In March, the price of high - quality apples in the northwest region may continue to rise slightly, while the price in Shandong may be stable or slightly weak. The national apple prices may show a pattern of stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As cold - stored apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the price gap between large and small apples may further widen. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [33]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main apple futures contract AP2605 rose significantly, hitting a new high in this round of the upward market [8]. 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 4.7052 million tons, and the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 35.73%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Due to the decline in the excellent - fruit rate, the proportion of high - quality apples is low, and there is a supply gap [11]. 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio dropped by 1.82 percentage points this week (February 26 - March 4, 2026), and the inventory removal rate was 36.05%. Post - holiday shipments were mainly concentrated in the northwest production areas, while the shipment speed in Shandong was relatively stable [16]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The overseas demand increased due to the Christmas and New Year's Day festivals. The first quarter is the peak export season for fresh apples, and the export volume is expected to remain at a high level [18]. - As of March 6, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The market was stable, and the number of buyers inspecting the goods increased slightly [29].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货专题报告 中东地缘风险升级 油价强势上涨 原油 2026 年 3 月 3 日 主要结论 受中东地缘风险升级的影响，本周一国内原油期货价格涨停报收。2 月 28 日，在美国和以色列袭击伊朗后，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡航道，多个油轮船 东、交易商已暂停经这一海峡运输原油、燃料及液化天然气。霍尔木兹海峡如果 长时间被关闭，全球原油供应缺口将极速放大，中国 70%以上原油依赖进口，短 期原油进口被动减少和推迟到港的风险加大，油价面临持续上涨的风险。 美国和伊朗谈判分歧巨大，美国的目标不仅仅是要伊朗弃核，更重要的是要 颠覆伊朗政权和接管伊朗政府。伊朗预计不会向美国屈服妥协，冲突可能会持续 较长时间，油价 3 月份可能持续上涨。 OPEC+已原则上达成协议，计划自 4 月起将石油日产量提高 20.6 万桶。此次 增产决定是在上周日 OPEC+会议前夕作出的，显示出产油国集团对当前全球能源 供需形势的评估。该增产规模相当于全球日均需求的约 0.2%，反映出 OPEC+在平 衡市场供应与维护油价稳定之间的谨慎态度。OPEC+的增产计划预计难以阻止近 期油价上涨。相较于霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻造 ...