1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Past week, corn spot prices fluctuated strongly due to mid - downstream restocking and farmers' reluctance to sell; futures prices rose, with the near - month C03 contract rising significantly, boosted by spot price increases and a high discount on the futures. The C3 - C5 spread strengthened significantly. - New - crop corn sales progress was relatively fast, but the pace has slowed in recent weeks, indicating increased reluctance to sell among farmers. - The theoretical profit of imported corn is good, but future arrivals from major producing countries are still limited. - Currently, the inventory of pigs and poultry is high, with strong rigid demand for feed. However, due to poor overall profits and the expectation of capacity reduction, feed enterprises have limited motivation to significantly increase raw material inventory. The increase in feed enterprises' raw material inventory days in the past week was mainly due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, and there is limited room for further inventory increase. - Northeast deep - processing enterprises have low raw material inventory, while Shandong's inventory is at a neutral level. The overall inventory - to - use ratio of deep - processing enterprises continues to rise but remains at a low level. - Recently, the inventory at northern ports has decreased, while that at southern ports has increased, and the overall inventory level is still low. - Overall, the inventory levels of mid - downstream links are low. Against the backdrop of poor overall demand expectations and the supply supplement of policy - related grain sources, the corn market has both support and pressure, maintaining a dynamic balance under the tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The operation strategy is to adopt a volatile mindset [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Corn futures: The near - month C03 contract had a large increase, and the C3 - C5 spread strengthened [7]. - Corn spot: Fluctuated strongly due to mid - downstream restocking and farmers' reluctance to sell [7]. - Corn sales progress: New - crop corn sales were relatively fast, but the pace slowed recently [7]. - Corn imports: Theoretical profit is good, but future arrivals are limited [7]. - Feed and aquaculture demand: High inventory of pigs and poultry, strong rigid demand for feed, but limited motivation for feed enterprises to increase inventory [7]. - Deep - processing demand: Northeast enterprises have low inventory, Shandong is at a neutral level, and the overall inventory - to - use ratio is rising but still low [7]. - North port corn: Inventory decreased recently [7]. - South port corn: Inventory increased recently [7]. 3.2 Domestic Corn Market Dynamics No specific content provided other than the headings. 3.3 Corn Starch Market Dynamics No specific content provided other than the headings. 3.4 International Corn Market Dynamics No specific content provided other than the headings.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices. As the Spring Festival stocking season begins, the cold storage shipment volume is gradually increasing, but some traders are slightly cautious. After the futures price soared and then dropped significantly, there is still some support below. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures AP2605 reached a high of 10,019 yuan/ton and then dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 1.53% [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.5557 billion tons, and the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 49.78%, 3.55 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The defective rate of low - price apples from fruit farmers is relatively high, and the packaging volume of gift boxes in cold storage this year is lower than that of last year [13]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - **Cold Storage Shipment Volume**: As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 10.90%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.37%, with a weekly decrease of 1.17 percentage points, and in Shaanxi it was 47.69%, with a weekly decrease of 1.49 percentage points. With the Spring Festival stocking season, the cold - storage shipment volume is increasing [18]. - **Export Volume**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The export volume recovered in November due to the delayed listing of new - season apples and increased overseas demand near Christmas [20]. - **Alternative Fruit Prices**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Origin Spot Price**: As of January 16, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of Grade 1 and 2 apples over 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for flaky red apples from fruit farmers, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchant goods. The price of Grade 1, 2, and 3 apples from fruit farmers over 80 was 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, with stable transactions [32].

研究所 大幅下跌，等待盘面企稳 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2026年1月16日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2605大幅下跌，周度跌幅为3.39%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至1月15日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5552元/吨，较上周下跌0.52%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4683元/吨，较上周上涨 0.60%，涨幅较上期收窄0.14个百分点。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-12月纸浆累计进口量同比增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年12月，我国进口纸浆311.3万吨，进口金额为1799.4百万美元，平均单价为578.03美元/吨。1月至12月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.9%、-2.4%。 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、 ...

Report Title - "Consumption Peak Season Approaching, Pay Attention to Slaughter Rhythm —— Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Date - January 16, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated strongly, the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, the slaughter volume was generally stable, the large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume recovered to normal from a low level, and the small and medium - sized farmers' slaughter volume decreased slightly, indicating strong demand and tight supply. The futures market rose due to the strong spot market and the discount of the futures price to the spot price, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts also strengthened [7]. - Based on the number of piglet births, the theoretical supply of standard pigs in the first quarter remains high. However, due to the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the industry's behavior of delaying slaughter and secondary fattening has led to a temporary shortage of slaughter volume. Currently, the average slaughter weight has been rising continuously, indicating that the inventory of live pigs is still increasing [7]. - From the demand side, starting from the second half of next week, the slaughter demand in the industry will enter the climbing period of the peak season before the Spring Festival. At that time, the supply of pigs from large - scale enterprises and large pigs from small farmers will also increase simultaneously. This will be an important node to verify the matching degree of real supply and demand, and the inventory reduction situation will also be an important guide for the spot price in the off - season after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the long term, the recent rapid increase in piglet prices reflects that the industry's expectations are tilting towards optimism. Attention should be paid to the impact of the rising piglet prices on the pace of capacity reduction [7]. - In the futures market, the current futures price is strong. Although the main LH03 contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival, the market still focuses on the strong spot market and the possibility of reduced supply pressure after the Spring Festival due to the accelerated digestion of large pigs before the Spring Festival. However, considering the valuation level and the subsequent supply - demand forecast, the current price may be close to the upper limit of the oscillation range. The far - end contracts are supported by capacity reduction, but the swing of expectations should be vigilant. In terms of operation, the near - end contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and for the far - end contracts, pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band - trading long under the idea of wide - range oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live pig spot market was strong last week, and the futures market was also boosted. In the first quarter, the theoretical supply of standard pigs is high, but the actual slaughter volume is temporarily tight. The demand will enter the peak - season climbing period soon, and the matching of supply and demand will be verified. The rising piglet prices affect the capacity - reduction pace. The near - end futures contracts are expected to be weak, and the far - end contracts can be considered for low - level long - trading [7]. 2 - 14. Other Sections - The report also includes various aspects such as pig futures prices, futures contract spreads, spot prices, price differences between fat and standard pigs, changes in breeding sows, piglets, inventory, slaughter, consumption, frozen meat market, cost and profit, central reserve operations, and multi - caliber comparisons, but specific content summaries are not provided in the given text [8][12][16]

郑棉转为震荡 回归基本面 ——国信期货棉花周报 2026年1月16日 研究所 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑棉本周小幅震荡，周度跌幅0.37%。ICE期棉偏强震荡，周涨幅0.58%。 本周棉花价格指数回落。3128指数较上周下跌17元/吨，2129指数较上周下跌20元/吨。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,000.00 70,000.00 100,000.00 90,000.00 120,000.00 30,000 80,000 130,000 180,000 230,000 280,000 330,000 380,000 430,000 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) attempted to break through the 5300 yuan/ton mark this week but failed to hold. The spot price was firm due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but overall supply was abundant with new sugar on the market, a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, and an expected year - on - year rise in December imports. The decline in external market prices also had a negative impact. Short - term, Zheng sugar is expected to remain volatile. Weather in Guangxi should be monitored due to a cold wave warning [55]. - Internationally, the global sugar market has weakened with significant supply pressure. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.885 million tons, higher than the previous year, and the average sugar yield increased. In Brazil, due to dry weather, the crushing progress was fast and may finish ahead of schedule. The international sugar market remains weak, with support at around 14 cents per pound [55]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zheng sugar fluctuated slightly with a weekly decline of 0.38%, and ICE sugar dropped with a weekly decline of 2.01% [8]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. - **Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan**: No specific analysis content is provided in the given text. - **Sugar Imports**: In November, imports were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4019 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5090 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4078 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5166 yuan/ton [20]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in November was about 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58,900 tons [23]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 14,881, an increase of 4313 from the previous week. There were 14,126 warehouse receipts and 755 valid forecasts [31]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of December, the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and sugar production was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [35]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.91%, compared with 48.19% in the same period last year [40]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: In December, Brazil's sugar exports were 2.913 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [42]. - **International Main - producing Area Weather**: In Brazil, there was abundant rainfall, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. In India, there was little precipitation, which was conducive to sugarcane crushing [51]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Zheng sugar is expected to remain volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as supply, external market prices, and weather [55]. - **International Market**: The international sugar market remains weak with strong supply pressure, and the support level is around 14 cents per pound [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oils this week was soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil, with a slight recovery in the soybean - palm oil spread. The soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal oil - to - meal ratios of the main contracts slightly recovered, and the price spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal slightly declined, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil slightly recovered, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil significantly declined, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil slightly recovered [62][97][102]. - In the short - term, the technical indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish; the short - and medium - term indicators of soybean oil are bullish, while the long - term indicator is entangled; the indicators of palm oil are all entangled; and the indicators of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meals, international weather may be a factor for speculation, and domestic soybean meal spot remains firm. For oils, international geopolitics affects the market, and domestic oils may rotate [123][124]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: CBOT soybeans fluctuated lower this week, first falling and then rising. Domestic soybean meal futures declined, while the spot market was relatively firm, showing a situation of strong spot and weak futures [6]. - **Export Data**: As of January 8, 2026, the weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans was 1,529,707 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 17,934,546 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.8%. The export to China in that week was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.9% of the total [10]. - **South American Market**: In Brazil, as of January 9, the soybean harvest progress was 0.53%. In Argentina, as of January 8, the cotton, corn, and soybean planting rates were 86%, 90%, and 92% respectively [20][21][29]. - **Oilseed Market**: The USDA raised the production and inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season and lowered exports. The NOPA's December soybean crushing volume was the second - highest on record [32][31]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic soybean port inventory was about 833.96 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 99.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.7 tons [41][47]. 3.2 Oils Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: US soybean oil rose significantly this week, reaching a 7 - week high. Malaysian palm oil fluctuated at a low level and closed slightly higher. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil rising, palm oil rising and then falling, and rapeseed oil falling first and then rising [62]. - **International Data**: In December 2025, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased to 305 tons. In January 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month. In December 2025, India's palm oil imports reached an 8 - month low [66][67][68]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 214.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.48 tons [83]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: Seasonal index data for US soybeans, soybean meal, domestic soybean meal, and various oils and meals are provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [114][115][117]. - **Next - Week Outlook**: Technically, the indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish; those of soybean oil are bullish in the short and medium - term; those of palm oil are entangled; and those of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meals, weather and South American harvests may affect the market, and domestic soybean meal spot remains firm. For oils, geopolitics and policies may impact the market, and domestic oils may rotate [123][124].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the "rush to export" market caused by the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy boosts market confidence and improves the extremely sluggish demand in the off - season. The increase in component exports from January to March will drive the growth of polysilicon demand. But if enterprises do not actively cut production to digest inventory, polysilicon prices will face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [2][21]. - In the long run, cost control and technological optimization are the core competitiveness of enterprises and key variables affecting the long - term trend of polysilicon futures. As the industry returns to a market - oriented competition order, the supply - demand pattern will shift from "oversupply and high inventory" to a healthy state, and the futures price will more accurately reflect the real value of the industry [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Influence - Since May 2025, rumors and measures related to polysilicon capacity storage have dominated the sentiment and price trend of polysilicon futures, showing characteristics of "expected - driven rise - regulatory cooling and shock - policy reversal and sharp decline". The establishment of the capacity integration and acquisition platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" in December 2025 drove the futures price to a high of 61,985 yuan/ton on December 17. However, subsequent regulatory interventions, including the market supervision department's约谈 of leading enterprises in January 2026, reversed the policy expectation, causing a sharp decline in the futures price [4]. Current Situation of the Polysilicon Industry - From January 2023 to December 2025, the polysilicon industry's over - supply is a long - term problem with periodic adjustments. The mismatch between production expansion and demand, and the subsequent supply rebound after industry adjustment, have led to continuous over - supply. The industry's high inventory, reaching 32,234 tons for polysilicon enterprises and over 500,000 tons in the industrial chain by 2026, will suppress prices in the first half of 2026 [7][9]. - Before 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain had high profitability. After 2024, intensified competition led to profit decline. In the second half of 2025, profits concentrated in the polysilicon segment, while downstream segments suffered losses. The anti - monopoly约谈 in January 2026 will reshape the profit distribution logic, promoting a return to market - oriented rationality [10][13]. Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates - From April 1, 2026, the 13% VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products will be zeroed, and the tax - rebate rate for power batteries will be gradually reduced to zero. Before April 1, a "rush to export" is likely to occur. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon may increase by 1 - 1.5 tons per month, and the oversupply may be reduced to less than 10,000 tons. However, after April, the demand will face pressure, and enterprises need to cut production [16][18]. Polysilicon Futures - In the short term, the "rush to export" will drive polysilicon demand growth. But without production cuts, prices will face downward pressure in the medium and long term. In the long run, cost control and technological optimization will drive the industry to a more balanced state, and the futures price will better reflect the real value of the industry [21].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Rise and Fall, Consolidating for Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated January 11, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the port inventory of nickel ore in China [12] - Midstream: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and 8 - 12% nickel - iron, as well as the monthly import volume of nickel - iron [15][18][20] - Downstream: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles [22][30][32] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - In the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, with the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%. There are differences in views on future interest - rate cuts, and the market is concerned about the new Fed chair. The probabilities of different interest - rate scenarios are provided. In China, the manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [38] - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a rise - and - fall trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. Indonesian nickel - iron production in December remained high, with large supply pressure. Stainless - steel demand enters the off - season, but production has increased due to price hikes. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live hog spot price was weak first and then strong, slightly falling compared to before the New Year's Day holiday, with the southern price performing weaker than the northern price. The live hog futures fluctuated, and the main LH03 contract reached a high of 11,925 on Wednesday and then declined. The basis of the Henan spot price against LH03 generally fluctuated, the futures were generally weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term, and the spread between LH03 and LH05 decreased. After the New Year's Day, consumption was seasonally weak, the slaughtering end had a general acceptance of high prices. Meanwhile, large - scale farms reduced the supply at the beginning of the month and then slightly increased it, and small - scale farmers were somewhat reluctant to sell large hogs. The decrease in both supply and demand led to a lower slaughter volume, but the hog price fluctuated, indicating that supply and demand were generally in a balanced state [7]. - In the second half of January, domestic consumption will enter the pre - holiday stocking peak season, and slaughter demand will increase significantly. Considering the reduced sales plan of large - scale farms in December, the supply of small and medium - sized farmers' hogs is the key to the pre - holiday supply capacity. Considering the lagging supply of second - fattened hogs in December and the weakening price difference between fat and standard hogs, there is unlikely to be a large supply - demand imbalance during the peak season [7]. - In the medium term, according to the previous piglet birth data, the supply of standard hogs after the Spring Festival is still large, which will continue to suppress the March contract. In the long term, continuous losses will be conducive to the industry's capacity reduction, providing low - level support for distant contracts. In terms of operation, short the LH03 and LH05 contracts on rallies, and seize the low - level band - buying opportunities under the wide - range fluctuation of distant contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The past week saw the live hog spot price first weak then strong, slightly down from before the New Year's Day. Futures fluctuated. The current supply - demand is in balance. In the future, consumption will enter the peak season in mid - to - late January, but large supply - demand imbalance is unlikely. Medium - term supply pressure exists after the Spring Festival, and long - term capacity reduction may support distant contracts. Suggested operations are to short near - term contracts on rallies and buy distant contracts at low levels in bands [7]. 3.2 13. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price decline: At the national level, the state does not start temporary reserve purchases when the third - level early warning of excessive decline is issued, may start it when the second - level early warning is issued, and starts temporary reserve purchases when the first - level early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice [63]. - In case of excessive price increase: There are two scenarios for the central frozen pork reserve release. In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, the release is started when the second - level early warning of excessive increase is issued and the release intensity is increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal disease risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and after the first - level early warning is issued, the release is mainly organized during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should generally not be higher than the central conditions [63].