研究所 底部区间，持续震荡 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年08月17日 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 3 后市展望 研究所 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1 行情回顾 1.1 行情回 ...

国信期货研究所 供需边际转弱 螺纹窄幅震荡 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年8月10日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示，1—6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资 35770亿元，下降10.4%。 1—6月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积633321万平方米，同比下降9.1%。其中，住宅施工面积441240万平 方米，下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积30364万平方米，下降20.0%。其中，住宅新开工面积22288万平方米，下降19.6%。房屋竣工面积22567 万平方米，下降14.8%。其中，住宅竣工面积16266万平方米，下降15.5%。 2. 国家统计局数据显示，2025年上 ...

研究所 供应宽松延续 价格震荡下跌 2025/08/03 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 尿素基本面 3 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 1.1尿素期货主力合约走势（日线） 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 1.2尿素期货基差情况 研究所 山东尿素小颗粒基差（元/吨） 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 研究所 P 第 二部 r 分 a t2 尿素基本面 2.1供给端：尿素开工率情况 研究所 于近5年高位。 本周尿素生产企业 开工率为84.93%， 环比上升1.45%，同 比上升5.79%，仍居 7月30日，山东 尿素小颗粒基差 为28元/吨，环 比上周三下降19 元/吨，同比近 五年居于低位。 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：iFinD 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.2供给端：尿素日均产量情况 研究所 尿 素 日 均 产 量 ...

国信期货研究所 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 成本支撑转弱 盘面震荡回调 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年8月3日 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示，1—6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资 35770亿元，下降10.4%。 1—6月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积633321万平方米，同比下降9.1%。其中，住宅施工面积441240万平 方米，下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积30364万平方米，下降20.0%。其中，住宅新开工面积22288万平方米，下降19.6%。房屋竣工面积22567 万平方米，下降14.8%。其中，住宅竣工面积16266万平方米，下降15.5%。 2. 国家统计局数据显示，2025年上半 ...

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern under multiple factors. Gold maintained a volatile trend, while silver rose sharply and then fell back, but still had significant monthly gains. Looking ahead, precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the core drivers being policy expectation differentials and trade risk premiums [3][6]. - The Fed's July FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if it signals a rate cut in September, it may trigger a weaker US dollar. The implementation of global tariffs on August 1 and the EU's €93 billion counter - measure plan (effective August 7) may cause supply - chain shocks, and the safe - haven demand still has the potential to surge [3][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - In July 2025, affected by factors such as escalating trade frictions, deepening policy games, and frequent geopolitical risks, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern. Gold was volatile, and silver rose first and then fell. By July 25, New York gold rose 0.71% monthly, Shanghai gold rose 0.82%, New York silver rose 5.49% monthly, and Shanghai silver rose 4.34% [3][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis (1) Uncertainty of Tariff Implementation and Safe - Haven Logic for Precious Metals - The US postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariffs is weaker than before, most trade agreements are still pending, which increases the uncertainty of the global trade system. The precious metals market shows a complex reaction, with local trade risk mitigation weakening gold's safe - haven appeal, while unresolved trade frictions still support safe - haven sentiment [16][18]. (2) Rate - Cut Expectations and Political Risk Premiums as New Drivers for Precious Metals - The Fed is facing internal divisions over the rate - cut path and external challenges to its policy independence from the Trump administration. The market's pricing logic for precious metals is shifting. Rate - cut expectations may limit the upside of precious metals, while political intervention has increased policy uncertainty and risk premiums, providing support for precious metals [19][20]. (3) Inflation: US CPI Rebounded in June - The US CPI data in June showed an overall moderate increase with the impact of tariffs emerging. As enterprises deplete their inventories, the impact of tariffs on inflation may intensify in the coming months. The market's expectation of the Fed's policy shift has weakened significantly, with the probability of the first rate cut postponed to September at 59.9% [21][25]. (4) US June Non - Farm Payrolls Exceeded Expectations - The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data in June reduced the probability of a rate cut in July and also shook the expectation of a rate cut in September. In the short term, it suppressed precious metals prices, but in the long term, the support factors for precious metals remained, and prices may maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern [26][30]. (5) US Treasury Real Yields Volatile, Dollar Index Declined - In July 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury real yields fluctuated violently, causing increased volatility in precious metals prices. The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's independence crisis weakened the US dollar's credit foundation, and the falling dollar index provided support for precious metals [40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (1) Gold Market in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the global gold market saw both supply and demand increase, with prices soaring. Investment demand was the core driver, with global gold ETFs rebounding strongly. The market showed structural changes, with gold jewelry demand falling to its lowest level after the pandemic, while the investment focus shifted from the over - the - counter market to gold ETFs [44][47]. (2) Silver Market - In 2025, the silver market remained in a tight supply - demand balance. The growth of photovoltaic and electronic industrial demand was the core driver. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase further, but there are policy and technological uncertainties. Silver is expected to experience a supply shortage again in 2024, and the shortage may widen [51][52]. 4. Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis (1) ETF Positions - In June 2025, the demand for global gold ETFs turned positive, driving strong performance in the first half of the year. North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions all saw inflows. By the end of June, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased by 41% to $383 billion, and the total holdings increased by 397 tons to 3616 tons [56][59]. (2) CFTC Positions - As of the week ending July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rebound in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold. The non - commercial net long positions in silver futures decreased, showing a decline in the market's bullish sentiment towards silver [62]. (3) Inventory Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by about 1.2% compared to the end of last month, COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 0.3%, SHFE gold inventory increased by about 58.23%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by about 8.6% [67]. 5. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. The COMEX gold may fluctuate between $3200 - $3450 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai gold between 760 - 820 yuan per gram. The COMEX silver may trade between $36.5 - $40 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai silver between 8800 - 9600 yuan per kilogram. In August, attention should be paid to factors such as the Fed's policy minutes, US inflation data, the impact of EU - US trade confrontation, and geopolitical black swan events, and positions should be adjusted flexibly based on key levels [3][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate continued to hold steady, showing positive economic data. Sino-US tariff tensions significantly eased, and the effect of front-loading exports was remarkable. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and rolled out a package of financial policies to stabilize the economy and expectations. Large - scale investment projects in China commenced, and sentiment in the capital market improved. With the money market interest rate remaining low, but risk appetite rising, government bonds are expected to decline [3][72]. - In the stock market, hotspots rotated. As funds spilled over from the banking sector to other heavy - weighted sectors, the strength of stock indices became differentiated. IH shifted to wide - range fluctuations, while IF, IC, and IM may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid correction in the hyped sectors [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Part 3.1.1 Stock Index Trend Analysis - From late September 2024 to the National Day, the A - share market rose continuously. After the National Day, it opened high and then fell. In November 2024, the market rebounded slightly, and in mid - December, it declined. Around the New Year's Day in 2025, the stock market had three consecutive negative days, and trading volume shrank to 1 trillion. After the Spring Festival, the market rebounded, and trading volume increased to 2 trillion. In March 2025, the market reached a new high of 5755.58 and then quickly fell. On April 7, there was a sharp single - day decline, with the Guozheng A - share Index dropping by 9.29%. After reaching the lowest point of 4820.80 on April 9, the market rebounded. In May, the market rebounded to 5500 and then fluctuated with shrinking volume. In June, stock market fluctuations weakened, and in late June, the stock index rose continuously driven by the banking stocks. In July, it broke through the high point after the sharp rise on September 24, 2024, and trading volume increased to around 2 trillion [4]. - The four major stock indices showed differentiation. In 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index fell in January, rebounded in February, dropped sharply in April, and then rebounded. In July, it reached a new high of 2824.86 but was lower than the high point on September 24, 2024. The CSI 300 Index also reached a new high in July. The CSI 500 Index filled the gap in July after failing to do so in May. The CSI 1000 Index rose rapidly in July and exceeded all high points since September 24, 2024 [5]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Fluctuations and Premium/Discount Situations - In January 2025, stock index fluctuations further decreased, and in February, there was a significant rebound. In March, there was a slight decline, and in April, there were large - scale fluctuations. During the rapid rebound of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, the stock index futures of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at a large discount. Fluctuations decreased in May and June, and in July, there was a further rebound. The long - term contracts of IC and IM gradually returned to normal. The premium/discount of the Shanghai 50 Index dropped to within ±5 points, while the far - month contracts of IC had a discount of over 300 points [15]. 3.1.3 Industry Strength and Weakness Transformation - The CSI 300 Index declined in January 2025, rebounded significantly in February, slightly declined in March, had a single - day sharp decline in April, and then quickly rebounded. It fluctuated at a high level in May and June and rose rapidly in July. In terms of reversal intensity, most sectors showed positive trends, with materials having a reversal intensity of up to 13, and pharmaceuticals and industry exceeding 8. Only the public utilities sector declined, with a decline of only 2% [16][19]. 3.1.4 Industry ALPHA Risk - Return - The tracking of ALPHA risk - return statistics shows that the consistency of the CSI 300 sector's trend has increased. The telecommunications and materials sectors have full - cycle ALPHA. The full - cycle ALPHA values are (0.467%, 0.284%, 0.114%; 0.107%, 0.088%, 0.058%). Most sectors' full - cycle ALPHA values are inconsistent, and the ALPHA values of the industrial, optional, and consumer sectors are negative [23]. 3.2 Government Bond Futures Analysis 3.2.1 Economic Steady Recovery - From 2023 to 2025, GDP growth showed fluctuations but generally maintained a certain level. CPI and PPI data indicated that the economy was in a deflationary state, with industrial PPI remaining negative and the year - on - year decline expanding. Industrial added value increased year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was relatively stable. The manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI fluctuated, and the non - manufacturing PMI was more affected by policy changes. Consumption growth was unstable [28][35]. 3.2.2 Slightly Rising Monetary投放 Growth Rate - In 2024 and 2025, the amount of new RMB loans fluctuated greatly. The growth rate of M1 first declined and then increased, indicating that the recovery speed of social hot money accelerated. The growth rate of M2 showed a downward trend. The central bank continuously implemented interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the LPR decreased. The yield to maturity of government bonds fluctuated, and the overall trend was downward [43][49]. 3.2.3 Monetary Policy - From 2024 to 2025, the central bank carried out a series of monetary policy operations, including borrowing government bonds, conducting temporary open - market operations, adjusting the LPR, and implementing a package of financial policies in May 2025, which included reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing the quota of re - loans [50][57].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - **Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic nickel price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - **Nickel sulfate price**: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel iron import volume and price**: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless steel price and position**: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - **Stainless steel inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - **New - energy vehicle production**: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The new - season early - maturing apple supply is tight, and the price is 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per jin higher than last year [1]. - Currently in the traditional apple consumption off - season, the demand is average. The export volume in June 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new - season apple bagging is completed, with a slightly lower bagging volume than last year. The production in Shaanxi increased slightly, while that in Gansu and Shandong decreased [2]. - In the future, the futures market logic will shift from the old - season apple demand to the new - season apple production and acquisition. The apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the weak downstream demand in the short - term may limit the upside space. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, the apple futures market fluctuated upward, showing a strong trend. The low inventory and high early - maturing apple prices supported the market [7]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Cold storage inventory**: As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than last year. Shandong had about 395,600 tons, Shaanxi about 173,400 tons, and non - main producing areas about 79,100 tons. Some storage merchants were eager to sell to lock in profits [1]. - **Consumption off - season and inventory removal**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 4.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.12 percentage points. The inventory removal rate was 92.28%. Shandong's cold storage shipping speed slowed down, while Shaanxi's was relatively stable. The overall demand in the first half of the year may be lower than last year, and there may be a possibility of price cuts to remove inventory [2][18]. - **Apple imports from January to June**: In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 18,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.32% and a year - on - year increase of 6.37%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 69,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 36.63%. It is expected that the import volume will remain at a relatively high level [20][21]. - **Apple exports in the second quarter**: In June 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 37,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. The export volume in the second quarter is expected to decline, and it is likely to remain at a low level [24]. - **Impact of seasonal fruits on downstream demand**: In July 2025, fruit prices continued to decline. Seasonal fruits such as bananas, watermelons, etc., affected the apple market. It is expected that the demand will gradually recover after the new - season apples are launched [29]. - **Stable origin prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream weighted average price of bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods in Shandong was 3.96 yuan per jin, slightly lower than last week but higher than the same period last year. The storage profit in Qixia was 0.35 yuan per jin, and the profit margin may be compressed in the future [33]. - **Seasonal analysis of apple consumption**: Based on five - year historical prices, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [37][38]. - **Slightly reduced bagging volume of new - season apples**: In 2025, the new - season apple bagging volume was slightly lower than last year. Shaanxi increased production slightly, while Shandong and Gansu decreased. The overall bagging volume decreased by 2.03% compared to the previous season. The acquisition price of new - season late - maturing Red Fuji may be higher than last year [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply side includes the old - season apple inventory and early - maturing apples. The demand is in the off - season. The futures market logic will shift, and the apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the short - term upside space may be limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market sentiment has improved, with the pulp futures rebounding from a low level in July 2025. However, the pulp market supply is relatively loose, with high port inventories and a slow de - stocking pace. The subsequent rebound height depends on demand stabilization and macro - economic conditions. It is recommended to take a light - position trial long position [2][5][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July 2025, pulp futures rebounded from a low level. The pulp market followed the upward trend of the commodity sector, but due to high port inventories, slow de - stocking, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and cost support, the market was in a dynamic game [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume Increase with Slowing Speed**: Global pulp production is stable at around 180 million tons. China has a high degree of dependence on pulp imports. In June 2025, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, with an import value of $1.9079 billion and an average unit price of $629.46 per ton. From January to June, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.2% and 2.3% respectively compared to the same period last year. The import volume maintained an increasing trend, but the growth rate slowed down [9][10] - **Inventory Pressure in Major Domestic Ports**: As of July 23, 2025, the total weekly inventory of pulp in major domestic ports was 2.1266 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of previous years. In May 2025, European port inventories increased, and in June, European chemical pulp consumption decreased while inventories increased. Coniferous pulp has less inventory pressure, while broad - leaf pulp has more supply and inventory pressure [12][13] - **Diverse Downstream Operating Conditions**: Global pulp apparent consumption is stable at around 180 million tons. Waste pulp is the main consumption method in China, accounting for 63% of total pulp consumption. As of July 24, the operating rates of different types of paper mills varied, with most paper mills operating stably and a few reducing production [15][18] - **Rising Prices of Coniferous and Broad - Leaf Pulp in the Domestic Market**: As of July 24, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5,866 yuan per ton, a 0.53% increase from the previous week, and the weekly average price of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4,111 yuan per ton, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. Although the price of imported broad - leaf pulp increased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and high - price transactions did not increase significantly [20] 3.3 Outlook for the Future - On the supply side, in June 2025, China's pulp import volume and value increased compared to the same period last year. On the demand side, port inventories were high, and the de - stocking pace was slow. The pulp market supply was relatively loose, and high - price transactions were limited. The subsequent rebound height depends on demand stabilization and macro - economic conditions, and it is recommended to take a light - position trial long position [23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, due to the commodity price increase caused by anti - involution, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Futures long - positions are shifting, and the confrontation between long and short positions in the main contract has eased. However, inland losses are severe, the consumption rate of commercial inventory has slowed down, and finished - product inventory is accumulating. In August, the cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends. - In the international market, the global cotton market remains under pressure as the USDA July report increased global supply. The excellent - good rate of U.S. cotton in the main producing areas is rising, and U.S. cotton exports are significantly affected. U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [1][26][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton first broke through and then fluctuated at a high level. Supported by tight supply and delayed issuance of import quotas, bulls actively attacked, pushing the price above 14,000 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 14,375 yuan/ton. Subsequently, bulls reduced positions, the basis was adjusted downwards, and the market entered a high - level oscillation. - In July, the international cotton market fluctuated widely. Uncertainty about trade agreements, high excellent - good rates of U.S. cotton, and weak exports suppressed cotton prices, but the low - level dollar and interest - rate cut expectations limited the downside space [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Commercial Inventory Consumption Slowdown - As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons (10.16%) from the end of June. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 242,000 tons, the inland inventory decreased by 36,400 tons, and the bonded inventory of imported cotton decreased by 9,000 tons. The decline in inventory continued to slow down, mainly due to significant losses of inland textile enterprises, reduced operating rates, and a significant contraction in cotton consumption [6]. 2.2 Decline in Downstream Operating Rates and Accumulation of Finished - Product Inventory - As of July 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises dropped from 51.2% at the end of June to 48.3%, and that of weaving enterprises dropped from 45.3% to 44.3%, reaching the lowest level in five years. The number of inland enterprises shutting down or suspending production increased. - By July 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises increased by 3.5 days compared to the end of June, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.8 days. After the increase in raw material prices, the acceptance of price increases for yarn and grey cloth by downstream sectors was low, leading to continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory [9][11]. 2.3 Both Spot and Futures Show Signs of Retreat - On July 16, Zhengzhou cotton started to rise rapidly, accompanied by an increase in positions and trading volume. It reached a phased high of 14,375 yuan/ton on July 18. During the futures price increase, the basis in eastern Xinjiang and inland warehouses did not rise but decreased, indicating a strong willingness of the spot market to sell. - After July 18, the futures market entered a high - level oscillation, the positions of the 2509 contract continued to decline, and long - position holders in the main contract showed a willingness to leave [14]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Increase in Global Supply and Ending Inventory - The USDA July cotton supply - demand report showed increases in both supply and demand. Global production increased by 1.43 million bales, mainly due to increases in China, the U.S., and Mexico. Global consumption increased by 365,000 bales. Global exports decreased by 100,000 bales. The beginning inventory for the 2025/26 season decreased by 510,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 bales [18]. 3.2 Higher - than - Expected Planting Area and Rising Excellent - Good Rate - The USDA reported that the actual planted area of U.S. cotton in the new season was 10.12 million acres, a 10% decrease compared to 2024. The growth in the actual planted area compared to the March assessment was mainly due to an increase in the planted area of upland cotton in Texas. - As of July 20, the squaring rate of U.S. cotton was 71%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the excellent - good rate was 57%. The growth progress was behind the same period last year, but the excellent - good rate continued to rise [21]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors: Trade Negotiations and Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The change in U.S. tariff policies is still unclear, which may affect the import strategies of major textile and clothing exporting countries for U.S. cotton. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the U.S. in July was extremely low, but the expectation of a future interest - rate cut increased, and the trend of the dollar index will also affect cotton prices [25]. 4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The domestic cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends in August, and attention should be paid to changes in positions on the futures market. - The international cotton market remains under pressure, and U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [26][27].