1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased. Steel supply increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, performing strongly in the off-season, but the inventory depletion rate was still slow compared to the same period last year. The decline in molten iron production indicates that steel mills started to cut production under profit pressure. The divergence between steel production and molten iron production may be due to statistical caliber issues. Starting next week, steel production is expected to start to decline, and steel may enter a new round of inventory depletion, increasing pressure on raw materials and strengthening the negative feedback expectation. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in a short-term short position [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term this week, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased [7]. - The spot market of hot-rolled coils showed a weak and volatile trend [10]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - For the basis of hot-rolled coils, the 01 basis is 12, the 05 basis is -12, and the 10 basis is -20 [14]. - The cold-hot spread is not detailed in the report. 3.3 Part 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - **Hot-rolled coil profits**: The production profit is 33, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 119, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 89, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 103 [21]. - **Production**: The production of hot-rolled coils is 323.56, cold-rolled coils is 85.97, rebar is 212.59, and the five major steel products is 875.29 [24]. - **Raw materials**: Not detailed in the report. - **Inventory**: The inventory of hot-rolled coils is 406.59, cold-rolled coils is 175.98, rebar is 602.52, and the five major steel products is 1513.74 [29]. - **Terminal demand**: Not detailed in the report. - **Exports**: Exports continued to strengthen on a month-on-month basis, providing support for demand [33]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term this week, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased. Steel production is expected to decline next week, and steel may enter a new round of inventory depletion, increasing pressure on raw materials and strengthening the negative feedback expectation. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in a short-term short position [35].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Iron ore currently faces increased supply and decreased demand, leading to greater contradictions and short - term pressure, and it may experience weak oscillations [36] Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (Trend Review) - **1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 (Trend of the main iron ore contract)** - This week, the iron ore price showed a strong trend, rebounding in oscillations but still maintaining a high - range oscillating trend [9] - **1.2 铁矿现货走势 (Trend of iron ore spot prices)** - The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, and others are presented in a table, indicating price changes [13] 2.基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - **2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 (Trend of the basis between iron ore futures and spot prices)** - The main contract basis is 2.5, the spread between 01 - 05 contracts is 23, the spread between pb - super special powder is 91, and the spread between Brazilian coarse - pb powder is 7 [19] - **2.2 螺纹与铁矿比价 (Ratio of rebar to iron ore)** - The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak [20] 3.供需分析 (Supply and Demand Analysis) - **3.1 铁矿供应 (Iron ore supply)** - This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1987.3 tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore was at a relatively high level year - on - year [23] - **3.2 国际海运费 (International shipping costs)** - The shipping price of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.42 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.10 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1893 [26] - **3.3 铁矿库存 - 进口矿库存 (Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory)** - Port inventory is 14542.48 tons, Australian ore inventory is 6017.4 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5743.87 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 9310.21 tons [29] - **3.4 铁矿库存 - 钢厂库存 (Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory)** - This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 14542.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.89 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8849.86 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229 tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [30] - **3.5 铁矿需求 (Iron ore demand)** - This week, the daily average pig iron output was 246.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 tons. The daily average port clearance volume remained high. The rapid decline in pig iron output led to a week - on - week weakening of iron ore demand [33] 4.后市展望 (Outlook for the Future) - Iron ore currently has increased supply and decreased demand, with greater contradictions and increased short - term pressure, and may experience weak oscillations [36]

Report Information - Report Title: Cost Drives Soybean Meal Higher, Poor Demand Leads to Decline in Edible Oils - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Edible Oils and Oilseeds [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is driven up by cost factors, while the price of edible oils drops due to poor demand [2]. - The export of US soybeans is expected to shift from speculation to actual implementation, and the pace of China's procurement will be a key factor affecting the market [104]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in October, and the B50 policy in Indonesia remains uncertain, putting pressure on the international edible oil market [105]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Review - CBOT soybeans rose significantly this week. Positive news about China's potential purchase of US soybeans boosted market sentiment, and the main contract broke through the 1100 - cent per bushel mark [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market also trended higher. Initially, it was under pressure due to supply concerns, but later shifted to cost - driven by the rise of CBOT soybeans. The main contract tried to break through 3000 yuan per ton several times [6]. - The increase in spot prices was less than that of futures. High inventory and weak downstream demand (such as the continuous decline in hog prices) put pressure on the market, and the basis declined significantly [6]. 2. US Market - US Soybean Export - As of October 23, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. 3. South American Weather - The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather. As of Friday, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state in Brazil reached 60.05% of the expected area, higher than last year and the five - year average [24]. - As of October 23, the 2025/26 soybean sowing progress in Brazil reached 36%. Overall, the weather last week was favorable for sowing, but there were abnormal rainfall and high - temperature weather in the central - western region [24]. 4. Domestic Market - Inventory and Profit - Domestic port soybean inventory increased to 811.27 tons this weekend, and the theoretical available days for crushing were 24 days [30]. - Both spot and futures crushing margins were in a loss situation, especially the futures crushing margin loss widened [30]. - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased this week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 12.5 tons to 105.2 tons, a 13.48% increase from last week [34]. 5. Rapeseed Meal - The operating rate of rapeseed processing plants decreased significantly this week, and the weekly crushing volume decreased from 1.2 tons to 0.4 tons [43]. - The inventory of rapeseed meal remained at 0.8 tons, and the contract volume decreased by 0.1 tons to 0.7 tons, a 17.65% decrease from last week [43]. Part 2: Edible Oils Market Analysis 1. Market Review - US soybean oil oscillated downward this week. The rise of US soybean meal led to active closing of the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage, and the decline of international crude oil and uncertain demand for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry also put pressure on the price [49]. - Malaysian palm oil fell more significantly. The increase in production and decline in exports, along with the slowdown in demand from major importers like India, led to a continuous decline in prices [49]. - Domestic palm oil led the decline in the edible oil market, while soybean oil declined relatively less and remained in an oscillating range [49]. 2. International Edible Oil Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and the output increased by 2.78% month - on - month [52]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 showed different trends according to different institutions' data, with AmSpec reporting a 0.27% month - on - month decrease and SGS reporting a 23.8% increase compared to the same period last month [52]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 - 57 million tons [52]. 3. Domestic Edible Oil Inventory - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China increased by 7.42 tons to 263.10 tons, a 2.90% increase from last week and a 17.39% increase year - on - year [67]. - The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased, with soybean oil increasing by 6.74 tons to 148.45 tons, a 4.76% increase from last week [67]. 4. Edible Oil Basis and Spread - The basis of different edible oils showed different trends, and the futures spread between different edible oils also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread rebounded significantly this week [81]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bearish [103]. - For soybean oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For palm oil, short - term indicators are bearish, medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bullish [103]. - For rapeseed oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [103]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: In the international market, the export of US soybeans will shift from speculation to actual implementation, and China's procurement pace is crucial. In the domestic market, high inventory, low demand, and losses in crushing margins may limit the upside potential of soybean meal prices [104]. - Edible Oils: In the international market, the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy will put pressure on the market. In the domestic market, edible oils are following the international trend, and the market is waiting for new positive news [105].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of lower - than - expected production and significantly declining quality, it is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain strong. The purchase price of new - season bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is higher than that of the previous year, with an increase of about 0.5 - 0.7 yuan per jin. There may still be some upside potential in the futures market, but there is a risk of the realization of the production reduction expectation. Later, the driving logic will shift to the demand side, and high prices will also have a certain inhibitory effect on consumption. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions and pay attention to the storage situation of new - season apples [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures, AP2601, reached a high and then declined, refreshing the upward high [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of September 25, 2025, the total remaining inventory of apples in cold storage nationwide was 147,900 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining inventory in Shandong was 109,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 36,900 tons. Due to the end of the cold - storage apple clearance, the statistics of cold - storage inventory were suspended. The first - phase inventory of new - season apples is expected to be counted on November 6, with a correction time of about one month. The supply of high - quality new - season apples is scarce, and the overall quality is average. The apples in the northwest production area are in the late stage of being picked, and cold - storage warehousing is continuing [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - **Market Transaction**: The market in Shandong mainly purchases general - grade apples. In the northwest production area, merchants are actively placing orders, mostly for high - quality goods. The arrival of goods in the wholesale market is stable, the sales speed is acceptable, and the mainstream price remains stable [17]. - **Export Volume**: In September, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the export peak seasons, and it is expected that the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 may rebound [20]. - **Substitute Fruit Price**: No specific content provided. - **Spot Price**: As of October 31, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of new - season bagged Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per jin, and that of striped apples was 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per jin. The mainstream price of first - and second - grade apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin, and the high - standard price was 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per jin. The price of first - and second - grade semi - apples (80 and above) was 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per jin, and that of general - grade apples (80 and above) was 2.8 - 3.2 yuan per jin, higher than before. The price of third - grade apples was 1.3 - 1.8 yuan per jin, priced according to quality [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2601 rebounded and then declined, maintaining a low - level volatile pattern. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize. The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and then consider a long - position approach [7][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2601 rebounded and then declined, maintaining a low - level volatile pattern [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of October 30, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,503 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from last week, with the decline rate expanding by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,239 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from last week, with the decline rate expanding by 0.05 percentage points [12] - **January - September Pulp Cumulative Import Volume Increase**: In September 2025, China imported 2.952 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7203 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.76 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to September increased by 5.6% and - 0.7% respectively compared to the same period last year [17] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of October 30, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 1.9414 million tons, down 0.85% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease [21] - **September European Wood Pulp Consumption and Inventory Statistics**: In September 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month and 0.49% compared to September 2024. Except for the flat inventory in Spanish ports, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, and Italy decreased by 1.36%, 2.17%, 6.87%, and 9.55% respectively month - on - month [25] - **SHFE Pulp Inventory**: Not summarized due to lack of effective text information - **Downstream Pulp Variety Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of October 30, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 1.81 percentage points from last week, that of double - offset paper increased by 0.16 percentage points, that of white cardboard decreased by 1.39 percentage points, and that of household paper decreased by 0.97 percentage points. The operating load rates of downstream base papers showed a differentiated trend, with limited acceptance of high prices, dragging down the rise of pulp prices [30] 3.3 Future Outlook - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports decreased by 0.85% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 increased by 5.6% compared to last year, and the import value decreased by 0.7%. In September 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month and 0.49% compared to September 2024. Although the external quotation has increased and there is a certain sentiment of hoarding and price - holding among industry players, the profit level of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, dragging down the rise of pulp prices. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize. The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and then consider a long - position approach [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the global financial market is facing a monetary policy decision in a data "vacuum." The market has priced in a 97.3% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming meeting. Amid government shutdown, inflation stickiness, weak employment signals, and political pressure, the meeting is a complex game. Fed's rate - cut expectations will support precious metals through interest rates and the dollar, but actual price performance depends on the strength of policy path signals after the rate cut [2][5]. - After the end of the data "vacuum period," potential expectation revisions may occur. Once the government shutdown ends, significant deviations between delayed economic data and market expectations may force investors to re - evaluate the rate - cut prospects, potentially causing sharp cross - asset class fluctuations. Investors should focus on the Fed's internal policy consensus, the actual performance of the first batch of economic data after the shutdown ends, and the persistence and consistency of policy signals [3][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data "Vacuum" under Policy Dilemma: Shutdown Impact and Decision - Making Challenges - The Fed's October 2025 meeting faces a "data blind - spot" dilemma due to a 28 - day government shutdown starting from October 1st, the second - longest in US history. Key economic data collection and release by government departments have stalled, challenging the Fed's policy - making [6]. - Data quality is severely affected. Long - term shutdown may directly disrupt data collection and introduce structural biases. Although private - sector alternative data fills some gaps, its information is limited [7]. 3.2 Economic Signal Analysis: Double Confirmation of Stable Inflation and Weak Employment - The September CPI data shows that US consumer price inflation was lower than expected, with core CPI growth at a three - month low, indicating a structural slowdown in inflation [8]. - The employment market shows obvious weakness. The ADP employment report for September shows a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, far below expectations. Previous employment data also shows poor performance, and there are signs of structural deterioration in the job market [9]. - These economic signals provide a basis for the Fed's rate - cut decision, with the Fed leaning towards focusing on employment risks [11]. 3.3 Powell's Balancing Act: Policy Shift and Risk Management - Fed Chair Powell faces a dilemma in policy - making. He also signals that the three - year - long quantitative tightening may end soon, and emphasizes a cautious approach to maintain financial market stability [15][17]. - Powell defends the Fed's policy independence and warns against the potential risks of Congress canceling the Fed's ability to pay interest on bank reserves [17]. 3.4 Internal Disagreements and Policy Games: Path Disputes under Rate - Cut Consensus - There is a basic consensus within the Fed on a rate cut in October, but deep differences exist in the future policy path, mainly in the rhythm, amplitude, and subsequent path of rate cuts [19]. - The dovish camp, represented by Stephen Milan and William Williams, advocates more aggressive rate cuts due to employment concerns. The cautious camp, represented by Barr and Jeffrey Schmid, warns about inflation risks [19]. 3.5 Market Outlook and Asset Impact: Confrontation between Expectations and Reality - As the Fed meeting approaches, the market is at a critical juncture from expectation trading to reality verification. The strong rate - cut expectations have been fully priced in, affecting major asset performances [23]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield has fallen below 4% in October 2025, but its further decline depends on the consistency between actual rate - cut paths and market expectations [23]. - The US dollar index is in a multi - empty tug - of - war, with rate - cut expectations pressuring it while geopolitical risks providing support [23]. - The precious metals market is relatively strong under rate - cut expectations but is affected by multiple factors and is expected to enter a high - level oscillation phase in the short term [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the soybean meal market, South American soybean sowing will fully commence in November, with potential weather - related speculation. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, but the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. US soybean prices depend on export improvement and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. Domestic soybean meal supply may decline in November, and inventory may decrease steadily, boosting the basis. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases after the Sino - US talks are crucial for the soybean meal market [2][58][133]. - In the oil market, the US soybean oil market is affected by multiple factors such as cost, oil - meal arbitrage, industrial consumption, and bio - diesel policies, remaining range - bound. In November, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, and Malaysia's high palm oil inventory pressure may ease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low, but the B50 bio - diesel policy is still unclear. The domestic oil market faces an oversupply situation, with inventory likely to increase steadily. However, there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound in November [3][131][134]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher, influenced by factors such as the USDA quarterly inventory report, Sino - US trade relations, and the NOPA report. Domestic soybean meal markets fluctuated lower due to reduced supply concerns and weak terminal demand. International oils were range - bound, with US soybean oil showing weakness and Malaysian palm oil being relatively strong [7][8]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Sowing - As of October 16, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the previous week and last year but lower than two years ago. With increased rainfall, the sowing progress has accelerated significantly. In November, Brazilian soybean sowing will fully start, with potential weather - related speculation in the northeast and south. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. If US soybean exports improve, Brazilian soybean premiums may decline [13][18][23]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Demand - The US government shutdown has affected the release of USDA reports. As of October 21, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. US soybean exports are far lower than last year, and the possibility of a significant reduction in exports is high. Mississippi River transportation bottlenecks and uncertain bio - diesel policies also affect US soybean demand. If the USDA report is released in November, US soybean yield and exports are expected to be adjusted downward, and inventory may increase [24][29][42]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Market - As of October 21, the procurement of imported soybeans for different shipping dates showed different progress, with relatively limited procurement in December and January. Domestic soybean inventory is currently abundant but may start to decline in December. Domestic oil mills' operating rates may remain high in November but may decline compared to the previous period. Domestic soybean meal demand has increased slightly in 2025, but the decline in pig prices may affect demand. Domestic soybean meal inventory may decline steadily in November, and the basis may stop falling and rise slightly. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases are crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [44][49][58]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil - Since mid - October, US soybean oil has declined from its high due to the unwinding of oil - meal arbitrage. In November, the oil - meal ratio may decline. The US biodiesel policy has not been finalized, and the market's demand expectations for US soybean oil have decreased. In November, US soybean oil will be affected by multiple factors and will continue to fluctuate within a range [60][62][67]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil production reduction cycle will start in November. In October, production increased, but exports faced resistance. Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy is still uncertain, which will affect the Malaysian palm oil market. Malaysian palm oil inventory may start to decline in November, and there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound [74][82][91]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oil Market - In November, domestic oil demand is expected to decline steadily due to the delayed Spring Festival. Supply may decrease after November but still exceeds demand, and inventory may continue to increase. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Palm oil inventory may increase, and the basis may be under pressure. Rapeseed oil supply may increase in November but is subject to policy risks. The current inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil may continue, and the oil - meal ratio may be adjusted in the short term [94][99][131]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - For soybean meal, maintain an interval - oscillation mindset, focusing on low - buying and high - selling. For oils, try to buy at the lower limit of the range or buy on dips after the market stabilizes in November [135].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of apple production reduction, the futures market is running strongly. The overall supply of late - maturing Fuji apples is low, with common quality problems. The purchase price of high - quality apples is higher than that of the previous season, and there has been a scramble for good - quality goods. The apple market is about to enter the full - scale acquisition stage. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main apple futures contract AP2601 continued to run strongly, breaking through the 8,800 yuan/ton mark and maintaining high - level fluctuations. Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. Due to production decline and quality issues, the quantity of high - quality apples is scarce, and most of the good apple orchards in Shaanxi have been pre - ordered. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji, driving the futures market to run strongly [6]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Cold Storage Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year by 107,500 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history. Shandong's cold - storage inventory was about 109,600 tons, Shaanxi's was about 36,900 tons, and non - main producing areas had about 1,400 tons [10]. - **New - Season Apple Sales**: New - season apples are gradually being listed. Customers have good purchasing enthusiasm, especially for high - quality goods. The transaction price of apples in the producing areas is stable. In Shandong, the price of high - quality apples is high, with general supply and few transactions. In the northwest, most of the high - quality orchards' goods have been ordered. The arrival volume in the sales market is not large, and the overall price remains stable [16]. - **Apple Import**: In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 108,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. It is expected that the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline, and the import scale will remain at the current level [21]. - **Apple Export**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons. It is expected that the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [25]. - **Seasonal Fruit Impact**: In October, fruit prices increased slightly month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. Seasonal fruits are gradually leaving the market, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. Citrus, a major winter fruit, has a large supply and low price, competing with apples around the Spring Festival [28][31]. - **Merchant Acquisition**: In Shandong Yantai Qixia, new - season apples have started to be acquired at prices based on quality. The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia is 0.29 yuan/jin. Currently, low - price acquisitions have a larger profit margin [36]. - **Apple Consumption Seasonality**: Based on five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [38][39]. - **New - Season Apple Quality**: Affected by rainfall, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. There are quality problems such as water cracks, fruit rust, small fruit size, and slow coloring in Shandong and Shaanxi. The overall supply of high - quality apples is low [42]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply: Late - maturing Fuji apples are in the bag - removing stage, with a generally postponed listing time. There are various quality problems in different producing areas. - Demand: Customers have high enthusiasm for purchasing new - season apples, especially high - quality ones. The transaction price in the producing areas is stable. The full - scale acquisition stage is approaching. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic cotton market, with over half of the cotton picked, the yield per unit in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, leading to a downward adjustment of the new cotton production estimate. If there is no situation of the Sino - US negotiation failure and a 100% tariff increase, the previous low of 13,155 yuan/ton may become a temporary low. In the international market, due to the lack of USDA data, the market focuses on the progress of Sino - US negotiations. If the negotiation achieves phased results, cotton consumption may improve significantly [1][22]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In October, Zhengzhou cotton futures ended the previous downward trend and prices stabilized and rebounded. The purchase price of seed cotton increased, and the expectation of a bumper harvest was adjusted. The optimistic prospect of Sino - US negotiations also provided support. In the international cotton market, prices fluctuated at a low level. Due to the government shutdown, USDA data was suspended, and market sentiment was cautious. The cotton price stabilized after the trade situation turned optimistic [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis - **New cotton listing situation**: By October 15, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 57.5% and the sales progress was 40.1%, 5.6 and 11.9 percentage points faster than last year respectively. The quality of cotton in northern Xinjiang was affected by the weather, and there was a possibility of a downward adjustment of the production estimate in southern Xinjiang. The purchase price of lint cotton in northern Xinjiang was around 6.1 yuan/kg, and in southern Xinjiang it was around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg, with significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market demand**: As of October 17, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 48.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points, and that of weaving enterprises was 49.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points. The increase in operating rate was small, and the pre - sale of cotton this year had an overdraft effect on demand. The finished product inventory of downstream enterprises was slightly higher but generally controllable [9][11]. - **Warehouse receipt registration**: As of now, except for two local cotton warehouse receipts in Shandong Heze and ten in Jiangsu Yinlong, no 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton warehouse receipts have appeared in the delivery warehouses inside and outside Xinjiang [16]. 3. International Market Analysis - **Latest negotiation dynamics**: In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes have escalated multiple times. On October 18, high - level Sino - US communication took place, reaching a consensus on "holding a new round of offline consultations as soon as possible". From October 24 - 27, both sides went to Malaysia for negotiations [20]. - **Impact on the market**: In the short term, the signal of "restarting consultations" has raised optimistic expectations in the cotton market. If the US fulfills its May commitment, China's textile and clothing exports to the US will see a cost reduction of about 20%, and cotton consumption is expected to increase by about 300,000 tons. However, if no consensus is reached before November and the 100% tariff threat is implemented, it will impact the cotton market, and the ICE cotton price may fall to 60 cents/pound [21].