1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, CBOT soybeans tumbled significantly, almost giving back all the premiums brought by the rise in international crude oil since March. The domestic soybean meal market was slightly stronger than the external market. The continuous soybean meal market oscillated strongly under the resonance of multiple factors, and the futures price was supported by cost - driven at the bottom and dragged down by poor downstream demand at the top. The main contract of continuous soybean meal may oscillate repeatedly around 3,050 yuan/ton. It is advisable to operate in short - term bands [6]. - In the future, in the international market, the Middle East situation is intensifying, and the enthusiasm of funds to go long on commodities remains due to the increase in shipping costs and logistics delays. If Brazilian soybeans can be exported smoothly, it will have a greater impact on US soybean exports. The upcoming US biodiesel policy may boost US soybean oil and then US soybeans. In the domestic market, attention should be paid to the shipping situation of Brazilian soybeans. The soybean meal supply may decrease and the inventory may decline, which will support the spot price. The main contract of the continuous soybean meal market will test the support level of 3,000 yuan/ton. If it falls below, the downward space will open; otherwise, the market will remain in a high - level and strong oscillation. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans tumbled significantly. On Monday, the main contract of CBOT soybeans closed at the daily limit down due to the delay of the Sino - US leaders' meeting. Later, it rebounded at a low level due to the rise of international crude oil and the possible obstruction of Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market was slightly stronger than the external market. The continuous soybean meal market oscillated strongly under the influence of multiple factors, with the futures price supported by cost at the bottom and dragged down by poor downstream demand at the top [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export Situation - As of the week of March 12, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 966,082 tons, and the total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 28,061,287 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.3%. The US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season have reached 65.5% of the annual export target. In that week, the US shipped 545,858 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 46.8% of the total weekly export inspection volume [11]. 3.1.3 South American Market (Brazil and Argentina) - **Brazil**: In the central and northern Amazonas state, there were widespread showers, which were generally beneficial to the growth of corn and cotton. In some areas, the rainfall was limited. The soybean harvest has started, with a progress of 7%, and 65% of the corn has been harvested [20]. - **Argentina**: The western part of the country had continuous rainy weather, while the eastern part was dry. The moisture deficit in soybean fields was mainly concentrated in some areas. The sunflower harvest rate was 42%, and the corn harvest rate was 9% [21]. 3.1.4 Domestic and International Oilseed Market - **Brazil - China Negotiation**: Brazil's agriculture minister will negotiate with China on the inspection and safety requirements for Brazilian soybean exports to China after receiving complaints from Chinese buyers [33]. - **Brazilian Truck Drivers' Strike**: Brazilian truck drivers are planning a new national strike due to the sharp rise in diesel prices, which may start as early as mid - March [33]. - **US Planting Area Forecast**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to be 85.66 million acres, higher than 81.2 million acres in 2025; the corn planting area is expected to be 93.68 million acres, lower than 98.8 million acres in 2025 [34]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Forecast**: In March 2026, the estimated Brazilian soybean export volume is 16.32 million tons, still a 3.8% increase compared to March 2025. From January to February, China accounted for 71% of Brazil's total soybean exports [34]. - **Global Soybean Production and Trade Forecast**: The 2025/26 global soybean production will reach a record high. The IGC initially predicts that the 2026/27 global soybean production will reach a record 442 million tons, and the trade volume will increase to 190 million tons [36]. - **Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing Forecast**: ABIOVE predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean production will reach 177.85 million tons, and the soybean processing volume will be 61.5 million tons, both hitting new records [37]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of March 11, 2026, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.52 million tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, and sold 44.27 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans [37]. 3.1.5 Soybean Sowing and Harvest Progress - **Argentina**: As of a certain period, the overall soybean sowing progress was 99.5%, with a 0.5% increase compared to the previous week [39]. - **Brazil**: As of a certain period, the overall soybean harvest progress was 59.2%, with an 8.6% increase compared to the previous week [41]. 3.1.6 Soybean Port Inventory and Processing Profit - The domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.3056 million tons at the end of this week, with a theoretical crushable days of 27 days. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will be 5.04 million tons next weekend, and the soybean arrival will be about 4.7765 million tons. The Brazilian soybean crush profit on the futures market continued to recover this week [48]. 3.1.7 Soybean Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4,569 yuan/ton, and (with normal tariffs) is 4,173 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3,886 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean premium continued to recover this week [51]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal - Soybean Processing Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the 11th week (March 14), the domestic soybean processing rate increased to 57.70%, and the total soybean processing volume was 2.135 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons compared to the previous week, and the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons compared to the previous week [55]. 3.1.9 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 11th week was 1.8228 million tons, higher than 1.514 million tons in the previous week [57]. 3.1.10 Soybean Meal - Basis Analysis - This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased, and the soybean meal basis continued to recover [60]. 3.1.11 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Processing Rate and Processing Volume - As of the 11th week (March 14), the domestic rapeseed processing rate increased to 7.40%, and the total rapeseed processing volume was 30,500 tons. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, and the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week [62]. 3.1.12 Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis - No specific new content provided other than the basis analysis chart. 3.1.13 Arbitrage Relationship between Oil and Oilseed Varieties - This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans rebounded slightly, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts oscillated and rebounded, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts continued to widen [68]. 3.1.14 Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal rose first and then fell, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal fell from a high level [72]. 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis charts of US soybeans, US soybean meal, continuous soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [75][76][78]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [80]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Middle East situation is intensifying, and the US biodiesel policy may boost US soybean oil and then US soybeans. In the domestic market, attention should be paid to the shipping of Brazilian soybeans. The soybean meal supply may decrease, and the inventory may decline, supporting the spot price. The main contract of the continuous soybean meal market will test the support level of 3,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [81].

Report Overview - Report Name: "Supply Pressure Eases Slowly, Futures Violently Squeeze Premium - Guoxin Futures Live Pig Weekly Report" - Date: March 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated weakly, with the national average price of standard pigs falling below 10 yuan, but the decline rate slowed down. The futures market fell sharply, with the main lh2605 contract dropping 8.34% to close at 10,215 yuan/ton. The futures were weaker than the spot, strengthening the basis, but it remained in a negative basis state. The large futures decline was mainly due to the high premium on the futures and the slow easing of spot supply pressure, leading to a reshaping of the futures valuation [7]. - Recently, the slaughter volume has increased rapidly, but the improvement in fresh product sales is limited, and the frozen product inventory has risen continuously, indicating that there is some warehousing behavior at the slaughter end. Second - round fattening replenishment has appeared sporadically, and the utilization rate of pigsties has increased, but the average slaughter weight remains high, suggesting that the de - stocking of live inventories is still slow. Given the current low absolute price, there is no economic rationality for hoarding, and passive hoarding in the industry is unsustainable. In the later stage, the risk of concentrated selling in the industry under increasing capital pressure needs to be guarded against [7]. - In the long term, the off - season performance of piglet prices, continuous losses in fattening profits, and falling futures prices will further affect the enthusiasm for replenishment. Piglet profits will fall into the loss range again, which may force the acceleration of capacity reduction. Policy - wise, relevant national departments held an industry meeting on Thursday, re - clarifying the direction of capacity regulation [7]. - In general, before the average weight effectively decreases, avoid bottom - fishing thinking for near - term contracts, and mainly adopt the idea of short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. For far - term contracts, patiently wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after the acceleration of capacity reduction. Medium - term contracts are easily affected by spot pressure and long - term capacity reduction trading, so both long and short positions should pay attention to the safety margin of entry [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Spot market: The national average price of standard pigs fell below 10 yuan, and the decline rate slowed down. Futures market: The main lh2605 contract dropped 8.34% to 10,215 yuan/ton. The futures were weaker than the spot, and the basis strengthened but remained negative. The large futures decline was due to high premium and slow supply pressure easing [7]. - Fundamental situation: Slaughter volume increased rapidly, fresh product sales improved little, and frozen product inventory rose. Second - round fattening replenishment appeared sporadically, pigsty utilization rate increased, but average slaughter weight was high, and live inventory de - stocking was slow. Passive hoarding was unsustainable, and there was a risk of concentrated selling [7]. - Long - term trend: Piglet prices were weak in the peak season, fattening profits were in continuous loss, and futures prices fell, affecting replenishment enthusiasm. Piglet profits may enter the loss range again, forcing capacity reduction [7]. - Policy: National departments held a meeting to clarify capacity regulation [7]. - Investment strategy: Near - term contracts: Avoid bottom - fishing, short - sell on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Far - term contracts: Wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after capacity reduction. Medium - term contracts: Pay attention to the safety margin of entry [7]. 64. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - Price over - decline: At the national level, do not start temporary reserve purchases when the third - level over - decline warning is issued; start as appropriate when the second - level warning is issued; start when the first - level warning is issued. Local conditions refer to the national practice [65]. - Price over - rise: In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, start reserve releases when the second - level over - rise warning is issued; increase the release intensity when the first - level warning is issued. In special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, tolerate a higher price increase. After the first - level warning is issued, organize releases mainly during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should not be higher than the central conditions [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the spot price of corn was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in the Northeast and a stronger trend in Shandong, leading to a wider price gap between Shandong and the Northeast Futures fluctuated, dropping significantly on Friday due to increased auction of government - supported wheat but quickly recovering the losses The basis remained stable with little change week - on - week The current social inventory level is not high, which supports corn prices, but substitution factors limit the upside potential It is expected that corn prices will fluctuate, waiting for new variables to break the balance The recommended operation is to wait and see [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook 3.1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided in the content 3.1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - In the past week, the spot price of corn was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in the Northeast and a stronger trend in Shandong [7] 3.1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread - The price gap between Shandong and the Northeast widened [7] 3.1.4 Corn Selling Progress - This week, the grass - roots grain selling progress reached 78%, with only 20% of the remaining grain [7] 3.1.5 Corn Import - Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but substitute grains increased However, on an annual basis, the impact of imported grains is limited [7] 3.1.6 Feed and Livestock Demand - The domestic livestock and poultry inventory scale remained at a high level, and the short - term feed demand was resilient With the overall deterioration of pig profits, the pace of capacity reduction is expected to speed up in the future, and the long - term feed demand is pessimistic [7] 3.1.7 Feed and Livestock Demand: Feed Production - Not provided in the content 3.1.8 Deep - processing Demand - The deep - processing operating rate remained at a relatively low level This week, the starch profit recovered significantly, which was conducive to boosting the future deep - processing demand [7] 3.1.9 Substitutes - Recently, the price difference between wheat and corn dropped significantly, increasing the substitution of feed wheat for corn The government also increased the supply of government - supported wheat, and the suppression of wheat prices on the upside of corn prices increased [7] 3.1.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - The inventory at the northern ports increased, but the absolute level was still low [7] 3.1.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - The inventory at the southern ports decreased slightly [7] 3.1.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Corn Starch Market Dynamics 3.2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided in the content 3.2.2 Corn Starch Spot - Not provided in the content 3.2.3 Corn - Starch Spread - Not provided in the content 3.2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided in the content 3.2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided in the content 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics 3.3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided in the content 3.3.2 US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not provided in the content 3.3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided in the content 3.3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's mid - late stage, the domestic spot market supply is relatively sufficient, but the strengthening of the outer market raises the cost of imported sugar, and the domestic market follows the outer market to fluctuate and strengthen. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar's trend depends on the outer - market raw sugar. Potential risks include a possible decline in international crude oil prices and a correction in Brazil's production expectations, along with the domestic off - season for sugar consumption [56]. - Internationally, ICE raw sugar futures have strengthened significantly, breaking through the recent trading range. This is due to the tightening of fundamental supply - demand and multiple macro - factors. The global sugar supply - demand pattern is turning tighter, with many institutions reducing the expected surplus for the 2025/26 season. The production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is lower than expected, and Brazil's new season is about to start with an expected lower sugar - making ratio [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.29%. ICE sugar futures strengthened, with a weekly increase of 7.1% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not elaborated in the given text, only data sources are mentioned [11][13] 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not elaborated in the given text, only data sources are mentioned [17][15] 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - From January to February, imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 15 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,213 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,343 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,149 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,260 yuan per ton [21]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 season, the industrial inventory in January was about 4.19 million tons, an increase of 432,200 tons compared to the same period last year [24]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 16,342, a decrease of 684 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,342, and the valid forecast was 0 [32]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of January, the cumulative crushing volume was 602 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%, and the sugar production was 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [36]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern part of Brazil was 50.74%, compared to 48.14% in the same period last year [41]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In February, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.2297 million tons, a 22% increase compared to the same period last year [46]. 3.1.10 International Main - Producing Area Weather Conditions - Brazil's main producing areas have abundant rainfall, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. India has slightly more precipitation, which may affect sugarcane crushing [52][53] 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestically, the market follows the outer - market trend, and there are potential risks such as a decline in international crude oil prices and a correction in Brazil's production expectations. It is recommended not to chase high prices. - Internationally, the ICE raw sugar futures have strengthened due to tightening supply - demand and multiple factors, with the global sugar supply - demand pattern turning tighter [56]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, this week, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a range with a lower center of gravity, following market supply - demand and internal - external price difference logic. Currently in the middle of the cotton sales period, Xinjiang cotton's available supply is tightening. Downstream textile enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid needs, with stable spot trading volume. There's no short - term large - scale boost for the market, but cotton consumption is proceeding steadily. Around 15,000 yuan/ton, the cotton price rebounded quickly, indicating potential support. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [52]. - Internationally, this week, US cotton entered a high - level consolidation phase after a previous rally, digesting the positive news of China's issuance of sliding - scale import quotas. The US cotton - growing regions are approaching the spring sowing window, and there are still potential short - term weather disruptions. The market will likely focus on new - crop planting expectations, export data, and the global supply - demand situation. In the short term, the global cotton market has relatively loose supply and a steady export pace, with a relatively stable US cotton trend. A planting area report will be released at the end of March, awaiting key data guidance [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week, with a weekly decline of 1.2%. ICE cotton futures rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.48% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index declined. The 3128 index dropped by 239 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index fell by 228 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In January - February, 380,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. As of the second half of February, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, showing a continuous decline [18][20]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - The commercial cotton inventory has been decreasing, with 5.477 million tons in the second half of February [20]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In February, the yarn inventory was 21.45 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.24 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.81 days [28]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S remained unchanged, the price of C32S increased by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of JC40S was flat [33]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 31. There were 12,437 warehouse receipts and 323 effective forecasts, totaling 12,760 [38]. 3.1.8 Seed - cotton Purchase Situation - No specific analysis content provided, only the price data of Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase is shown [41]. 3.1.9 US Cotton Export Situation - As of March 12, according to the USDA weekly export sales report, the current - year net sales of US upland cotton exports increased by 196,700 bales, and the next - year net sales were 122,200 bales [46]. 3.1.10 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 20.1%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas is 24.8%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas is 15.2%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas is 5.4%, the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas is 0.4%, and the total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) is 45.8% [49]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, the market is expected to continue to operate based on supply - demand and price differences. It is advisable to buy on dips around the support level [52]. - Internationally, the market will focus on new - crop planting, export data, and the global supply - demand pattern. The release of the planting area report at the end of March will provide key guidance [52].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The impacts of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and the 2026 Iran war on the photovoltaic industry differ significantly in driving logic, demand intensity, price transmission, and industrial chain structure. The 2022 war led to a surge in European demand for photovoltaic components, resulting in a simultaneous increase in volume and price in the photovoltaic industry. The 2026 war only brought short-term order impulses and export rush, without a definite demand explosion, and price increases were mainly driven by auxiliary materials and energy costs, with no significant improvement in downstream profits [1][19]. - Without the support of geopolitical conflicts, it is difficult for the polysilicon price to hold at the 40,000 yuan/ton mark. The current polysilicon futures price already includes the expectation of increased power costs due to the Iran conflict. If there is no continuous and unexpected demand growth, the inventory removal will be slow, and the futures price may further decline. However, if long-term demand starts, the current price may become an important support, and the price will gradually rise to a state where the entire industry is profitable, but it is difficult to reproduce the high prices in 2022 [2][20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Comparison of the Two Geopolitical Events - **Conflict Nature**: The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war was a regional energy supply disruption, while the 2026 Iran war was a global energy transportation and cost shock [5]. - **Impact on Oil Prices**: The 2022 war led to a sharp increase in European natural gas prices and a synchronous rise in crude oil prices, with a rigid increase in regional energy costs. The 2026 war caused a short-term surge in Brent crude oil prices to $105 per barrel, and the long-term impact depends on the duration of the conflict [5]. - **Core Conduction Chain**: Both events followed the core logic of "rising traditional energy prices → escalating energy security anxiety → increasing demand for clean energy alternatives", but the scope and intensity of coverage were different [5]. - **Impact Cycle**: The 2022 war had a long-term and continuous impact on demand, while the 2026 war only caused a short-term demand impulse, and the medium- and long-term demand depends on the development of the war [5]. Impact of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War on the Photovoltaic Industry - **European Demand Explosion**: In 2022, Europe imported 86.6GW of photovoltaic components from China, accounting for 56% of China's total component exports, a year-on-year increase of 112%. Europe became the largest export market for Chinese photovoltaic components [5]. - **Demand Release Lag**: Due to shortages of auxiliary materials such as inverters and installation personnel, the installation speed lagged far behind the import speed, resulting in a rapid increase in European component inventory. After July, the import volume began to decline [6]. - **Low Price Sensitivity**: Despite the soaring price of photovoltaic components, the demand was not suppressed due to high energy costs in Europe, and the export value increased far more than the export volume, significantly improving corporate profitability [6]. Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the Photovoltaic Industry - **Short-Term Demand Increase**: Driven by the export tax rebate window and the geopolitical conflict, the production of Chinese components and cells increased by about 10GW in March 2026 [8]. - **Price Rebound Driven by Costs**: The price of photovoltaic components has rebounded, but the actual transaction price is between 0.7 - 0.86 yuan/watt, and the price increase is mainly driven by the rise in the cost of auxiliary materials such as silver and aluminum alloy, with no significant improvement in production profits [9]. Current Situation of the Photovoltaic Industry - **Supply and Demand**: The photovoltaic industry is currently in a state of severe overcapacity, high inventory, and low operating rates. Long-term demand growth may be suppressed by high supply [13]. - **Polysilicon Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has fallen close to the industry's average production cost, and the increase in power costs due to the Middle East conflict may indirectly push up the production cost of polysilicon [15]. - **Inventory Pressure**: The high inventory in the silicon material link is the current major pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain. The inventory can support downstream production for 4 - 6 months, far exceeding the healthy level. If the war persists, it may help digest the silicon material inventory, but inventory removal may not be completed in the short term [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market will present a pattern of "short - term pressure and prominent medium - to - long - term allocation value" considering the expectations of the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting and the current market environment [3][13] - In the short term, the pressure on the precious metals market is difficult to change due to high - interest rate expectations, a strong US dollar index, and profit - taking and increased liquidity needs [3][13] - In the long term, the allocation value of precious metals is gradually emerging with price corrections, supported by "stagflation risks", weakening US dollar credit, and expectations of loose policies [4][14] - Gold will be the core asset for medium - to - long - term allocation, silver has greater elasticity and industrial demand support, platinum is relatively resistant to decline and may rebound, and palladium may continue to lag behind other precious metals in the medium - to - long term [5][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Expectation Background - The core suppression factor in the precious metals market is the repricing of market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, which is closely related to inflation prospects. The "geopolitical risk → energy cost → inflation expectation" transmission chain is strengthening [8] - The market focus has shifted from "geopolitical hedging" to "the game between inflation expectations and monetary policy". The "slow growth and persistent inflation" situation restricts the Fed's policy choices [10] - As of March 16, the market - expected number of interest rate cuts this year has been significantly reduced, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in December has risen to 64.7%. The upcoming March Fed FOMC meeting will be crucial for the market direction [10] 3 - Month FOMC Meeting Core Concerns Analysis - The three core concerns of the March FOMC meeting are Powell's statement, the adjustment of the Economic Projection Summary (SEP), and the change in the dot plot, which will determine the market's re - evaluation of the Fed's policy path and affect the precious metals market [11] - Political variables add uncertainty to the meeting, including the appeal of the dismissal of Powell's subpoena and the delay of the confirmation process of Trump's nominee for Fed chair [12] Precious Metals: Short - Term Pressure and Medium - to - Long - Term Allocation Value - In the short term, precious metals are under pressure due to high - interest rate expectations, a strong US dollar, and profit - taking and increased liquidity needs. Silver and platinum - group metals have more significant price corrections [13] - In the long term, precious metals' allocation value is emerging, supported by "stagflation risks", weakening US dollar credit, and expectations of loose policies [14] - At the variety level, gold is the core asset for medium - to - long - term allocation, silver has greater elasticity and industrial demand support, platinum may rebound after the macro - pressure eases, and palladium may lag behind [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a strong and volatile trend due to macroeconomic factors and external disturbances. The supply side is generally loose, while the demand side is under pressure. The market is waiting for the resumption of production in the spring by steel mills [60]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Market Review - Not provided in the document 3.2 Macroeconomic and Policy - **Economic Data**: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index slightly rose to 49.5%. The national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month [13]. - **Domestic Policy**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" was passed, setting a growth target of 4.5% - 5% and emphasizing high - quality development and domestic demand expansion [13]. - **Overseas Conflict**: Iran's new supreme leader stated that the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be used [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation of Coking Coal - **Production**: In December 2025, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4.4 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. From January to December, the production was 48.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of this Friday, the operating rate of 523 sample coal mines was 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 5.77% [17]. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's coking coal imports reached 13.7698 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. The total import volume in 2025 was 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. It is expected that imports from Russia and Mongolia will continue to increase in 2026 [20]. - **Inventory**: As of this Friday, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7768 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,800 tons. The main port coking coal inventory was 2.6755 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The coking coal inventory of sample coking enterprises was 8.1493 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187,800 tons. The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 7.7763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,900 tons [25][29][33]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation of Coke - **Supply**: In December 2025, the coke production was 42.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. From January to December, the production was 504.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [36]. - **Coking Enterprise Operation**: As of this Friday, the capacity utilization rate of 230 sample independent coking enterprises was 72.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [40]. - **Inventory**: As of this Friday, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 564,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,700 tons. The main port coke inventory was 1.9638 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,300 tons. The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 687,550 tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,900 tons [44][48][52]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills was 2.212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons [56]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future of Double - Coking - The supply of coking coal is in a loose pattern, and the high - volume import of Mongolian coal suppresses prices. The coke supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is under pressure. The market is waiting for the resumption of production by steel mills in the spring. The market is expected to be strong and volatile due to macroeconomic factors and external disturbances [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic February economic data and overseas geopolitical conflicts jointly affect the commodity market and the black sector, presenting a mixed long - short situation. The overall impact on the commodity market is slightly bullish, forming a pattern of "short - term demand pressure, medium - term cost support" for the black sector. The market will oscillate in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand and oil price trends [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market - **Recent Important Information Overview**: In February, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 49.5%. The national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" was passed, setting a growth target of 4.5% - 5%. Iran's new supreme leader stated to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz [14]. - **Rebar Main Contract Trend**: No specific trend description provided in the given text. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, and Basis - **Macro - Monetary Price**: No relevant information provided. - **Comparison - Domestic and Overseas**: No relevant information provided. - **Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain**: The price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.94%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and a yearly decrease of 1.83%. The price of PB powder 61.5%Fe in Qingdao Port is up 4.23% weekly, 2.87% monthly, and 1.15% yearly. The price of metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port decreased by 3.29% weekly and monthly, and increased by 2.08% yearly. The price of coking coal decreased by 0.21% weekly, 1.57% monthly, and increased by 9.71% yearly [28]. - **Basis**: The basis data from February 24 to March 12, 2026, shows the relationship between spot and futures prices, with the basis value fluctuating [29]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand - **Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory**: No relevant information provided. - **Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products)**: No relevant information provided. - **Blast Furnace Profit (Spot - Futures)**: No relevant information provided. - **Blast Furnace Operation**: No relevant information provided. - **Electric Furnace Profit**: No relevant information provided. - **Electric Furnace Operation**: No relevant information provided. - **Daily Average Hot Metal Output**: No relevant information provided. - **Weekly Steel Output**: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 820.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.73 tons, or 3%. The weekly output of rebar was 195.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22 tons, or 12.7% [62]. - **Rebar Weekly Output**: As mentioned above, 195.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22 tons, or 12.7% [62]. - **Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products**: No relevant information provided. - **Social Inventory of Steel Products**: This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,974.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.89 tons, or 1.2% [63]. - **Rebar Social Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to grow, and social inventory continued to accumulate [63]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: No relevant information provided. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The domestic data shows a slow recovery of domestic demand but price improvement, and overseas conflicts increase cost pressure. The overall situation is slightly bullish for the commodity market. The black sector is in a pattern of "short - term demand pressure, medium - term cost support", with short - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand recovery and oil price trends. The supply of domestic steel has continued to rise after the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the consumption of five major steel products increased by 15.4% this week, with a 55.2% increase in building materials consumption and a 3.6% increase in plate consumption. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.2% week - on - week. The raw material end is supported by international conflicts, and the market oscillates strongly, waiting for the inventory inflection point [62][63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of methanol will intensify due to port destocking. The port destocking this week provides positive support to market sentiment, but downstream demand is weak. The theoretical operating range of methanol has shifted upwards, with an upper limit of 2,940 yuan/ton from the industrial chain perspective. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of domestic MTO [43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - **1.1 Methanol Spot and Futures Prices and Spreads** - The closing price of the main methanol contract MA2605 on Friday was 2,805 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 11%. The position decreased by 90,000 lots to 580,000 lots, and the basis strengthened [6]. - **1.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Spreads between Production and Sales Areas** - The coastal methanol market rose significantly, and the inland market also fluctuated upwards. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,685 yuan/ton, a 14% increase from the previous week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,178 yuan/ton, a 13.54% increase. Due to the expected reduction in supply from the Middle East and geopolitical conflicts, low - price products were hard to find [9]. - **1.3 Methanol Foreign Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads** - Globally, methanol prices continued to rise. The price in Southeast Asia increased by over 45%, the price at the Chinese main port increased by 12%, and the prices in Europe and the United States increased by about 8 - 9%. Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival were negotiated at 278 - 350 US dollars/ton, and Iranian cargoes were negotiated at +1 - 2%. European methanol prices were around 395 - 400 euros/ton. Holders were reluctant to sell [12]. 3.2 Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **2.1 Methanol Operating Rate** - As of March 12, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 76.27%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.27 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating rate in Northwest China was 85.66%, a 0.35 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.48 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The increase in the operating rate in North China led to a slight increase in the national operating rate. Some plants restarted, and domestic supply remained high [16]. - **2.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes** - The import arbitrage window was closed, while the Southeast Asian market had a large increase, and the re - export arbitrage window was opened [19]. - **2.3 Methanol Port Inventory** - This week, ports achieved destocking. The available inventory was sufficient in the short term. The arrival volume recovered compared with last week, and the arrival forecast also increased. The short - term import inventory pressure was not significant. The coastal methanol inventory was 129.28 tons, a decrease of 12.05 tons from the previous week and a 34.81% increase from the same period last year, still at a relatively high historical level. The estimated available methanol supply in coastal areas was 64.4 tons. The overall提货 volume in Taicang increased this week, with more re - export shipments. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported methanol in mid - to - late March will be 32 tons, with more arrivals at major downstream factories [22]. - **2.5 Methanol Upstream - Coal** - The domestic thermal coal market was under pressure and adjusted weakly this week. Most coal mines in production areas resumed normal production and sales, with high - level supply. Downstream procurement demand was limited, power plants controlled procurement rhythm, and non - power terminals maintained rigid demand. The pit - mouth price decreased. The profit of coal - to - methanol continued to recover [26][27]. - **2.6 Methanol Downstream Prices and Operating Rates** - The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was 73%, a 1% increase from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was 59%, a 5.87% increase. The operating load of traditional downstream continued to increase, while the demand for olefins was weak [29]. - **2.7 Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream** - No specific summary content provided other than data charts. - **2.8 Methanol Downstream - MTO** - The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 78.14%, the same as last week. The average load of MTO plants using externally - purchased methanol was 70.29%, also unchanged from last week. Some plants such as Sierbang and Xingxing had not restarted, and the olefin plants were operating stably with no significant increase in operating rate. The downstream olefin prices also increased, enhancing the tolerance for raw - material methanol. The theoretical operating range of methanol shifted upwards, with an upper limit of 2,940 yuan/ton from the industrial chain perspective. The increase in ethylene prices reduced its substitution for methanol, improving the economic efficiency of MTO. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of domestic MTO [40]. 3.3 Part 3: Future Outlook - The port destocking this week provides positive support to market sentiment, but downstream demand is weak. The theoretical operating range of methanol has shifted upwards, with an upper limit of 2,940 yuan/ton from the industrial chain perspective. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of domestic MTO [43].