国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货纸浆季报 低位运行，等待需求企稳 纸浆 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 三季度纸浆期货先涨后跌，当前维持低位震荡。 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，我国 2025 年 8 月份针叶 浆进口量 61.39 万吨，环比减少 5.01%，同比下滑 10.12%；1-8 月针叶浆累计进 口量 574.05 万吨，同比增加 1.43%。阔叶浆方面，8 月阔叶浆进口量 125.77 万 吨，环比减少 6.92%，同比下滑 1.43%；1-8 月累计进口量 1115.21 万吨，同比 增加 10.71%。整体来看，进口量表现平缓，补充国内木浆供应。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 港口库存方面，国内纸浆港口库存前期创新高后逐渐转降。据卓创资讯数据 监测显示，保定地区、天津港、日照港、青岛港、常熟港、上海港、高栏港及南 沙港等中国主要地区及港口周度纸浆库存量 198.96 万吨，周度环比下跌 4.49%， 由涨转跌。 据 UTIPULP 数据显示，2025 年 8 月欧洲化学纸浆消费量 70.08 万吨， 同比上升 2.35%；欧洲化学纸浆 ...

四季度供应压力仍大 猪价难有乐观表现 生猪 2025 年 9 月 26 日 主要结论 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪季报 从仔猪出生数量推算。10 月至次年 2 月是国内生猪出栏压力兑现的阶段， 尤其是 10、11 月出栏环比增幅较大，且会碰上长假后的需求弱势阶段，届时供 需矛盾或上升。从饲料产销数量的交叉验证来看，7、8 月育肥料销量环比增速 较好，表明存栏逐步的增加。从出栏节奏来看，大型集团响应国家有关部门的政 策引导，加快了降低出栏均重的节奏，使其出栏均重已经降到相对合理水平，而 散户猪出栏均重仍较高，反映散户大猪消化较慢。从需求端来看，四季度整体消 费会有所回升，但对价格的影响还取决于未来供应的匹配程度。此外，二次育肥 舍利用率连续下降，已经到了偏低水平，后期需关注 10 月季节性低点兑现后是 否有新一轮二轮入场。综合来看，后期供应充足，生猪现货在四季依然承压，季 节性消费及二育入场可能带来阶段性反弹，但难有太高的上涨空间。目前期货整 体升水，后市维持震荡偏空思路。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z001 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After two months of consolidation, the silver market saw a breakthrough in September, with both domestic and international prices hitting multi - year highs. The strong upward trend is driven by multiple factors including macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and gold - silver ratio repair [2][5]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts is strengthening, which provides a solid foundation for the rise of precious metals including silver [11][12]. - The silver market in 2025 is expected to have a supply - demand gap, and the continuous strength of industrial demand, supply - demand imbalance, and low inventory support the long - term price elasticity and allocation value of silver [17][18]. - The current gold - silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Looking ahead, loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in the inflation situation should be noted. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to key price levels [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, after two months of consolidation, the silver market had a breakthrough. The New York silver price exceeded $43 per ounce and reached a high of $44.395 per ounce on September 23, with a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The domestic Shanghai silver also reached a record high of 10,359 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of over 35% [2][5]. - The strong rise in silver prices is due to multiple factors. Macroeconomically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and geopolitical tensions boost silver. Industrially, the demand from sectors like photovoltaics, new - energy vehicles, and semiconductors is strong, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. The current gold - silver ratio is high, indicating undervaluation of silver [2][5]. 3.2 Macro Policy Expectations Driving Precious Metals Up - Economic indicators show a significant slowdown in the US labor market. In August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The inflation data shows some stickiness, and the PPI is in deflation. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 soared to 263,000, heightening concerns about economic slowdown [11]. - Market expectations for the Fed's continued interest rate cuts are strengthening. The September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. As of September 22, the CME data shows a 91.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October and an 80.6% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December, which supports the rise of precious metals [12]. 3.3 Tight Supply - Demand Structure of Silver and Strong Industrial Demand - In 2024, global silver supply increased moderately. Global mined silver production was 819.7 million ounces, up 0.9% year - on - year, and recycled silver supply reached 193.9 million ounces, up 6% year - on - year. The total demand decreased by 3% to 1.16 billion ounces, with a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand reached a record high, especially in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields [17]. - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, and total demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 117.6 million ounces. Excluding ETPs, the physical gap will widen to 187.6 million ounces. The supply - demand gap and low inventory support the price of silver in the long - term [18]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Repair and Enhanced Silver's Catch - up Momentum - The current domestic and international gold - silver ratios are about 82 and 85 respectively, significantly higher than the historical averages of the past 50 years (63) and 20 years (70), indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Historically, when the gold - silver ratio is high, silver usually lags behind and then catches up. In the current context of interest rate cut expectations and industrial demand recovery, silver's financial and commodity attributes resonate, attracting capital inflows [20]. 3.5 Future Operation Suggestions - Loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in inflation data should be noted [3][25]. - It is recommended to buy on dips, focus on the effectiveness of support around $40 per ounce, and set upward targets at around $45 per ounce and $48 per ounce. Attention should be paid to controlling positions and closely monitoring macro - data and capital trends [3][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, price data slightly deteriorated, with PPI improving but CPI under pressure, indicating ongoing downward pressure on market prices. Credit and social financing data declined across the board, and government bond net financing remained an important support for the social financing scale. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, the decline in rebar production this week was basically flat, and the space for a continued significant decline in production is limited. In terms of demand, the consumption of building materials improved during the peak season, while the consumption of plates decreased. With the supply of raw materials increasing, the real demand for furnace materials being high under the background of steel mill复产, and downstream increasing inventory appropriately, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with the decline narrowing. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.7% year-on-year [8]. - Policy information: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission published an article emphasizing efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not provided in the content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Money Supply - The SHIBOR on September 19, 2025, was 1.5470, up from 1.5280 on August 19, 2025, with a bearish outlook due to the rising interest rate [17]. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - As of a certain date, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.62%, a monthly decrease of 2.11%, and a yearly decrease of 2.11%. The prices and their changes of other commodities such as hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are also provided [23]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on September 19, 2025, was 58 yuan/ton, showing different values on other dates [26]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - Not provided in the content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - Not provided in the content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China on September 19, 2025, was 83.98%, compared with 83.83% on September 12, 2025 [38]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - Not provided in the content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not provided in the content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not provided in the content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 770.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.064897367 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.002899151 [49]. 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 206.45 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.025857594 and a year - on - year increase of 0.062915101 [53]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - Not provided in the content 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not provided in the content 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - Not provided in the content 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - Not provided in the content 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - Not provided in the content 4. Future Outlook - Market price data shows downward pressure, and government bond net financing is an important support for social financing. In terms of rebar fundamentals, supply is expected to remain at a low level, and demand for building materials is improving during the peak season. With raw material supply increasing and cost support, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. With the increase in production of domestic and imported iron ore, the port inventory decreased while the steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high, and although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **1.1 Iron Ore Main Contract Trend**: Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week [7]. - **1.2 Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, etc. are presented, showing price changes [11]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **2.1 Iron Ore Futures - Spot Spread Trend**: The main basis is -8, 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, pb - super special spread is 77, and barite - pb spread is 9 [16]. - **2.2 Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The rebar - iron ore ratio continued to be weak [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Supply - Demand Analysis - **3.1 Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 2126.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased compared to the previous period [22]. - **3.2 International Shipping Freight**: The shipping price from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.86 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 24.45 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2205 [25]. - **3.3 Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: Port inventory is 13801.08 tons, Australian ore inventory is 5775.57 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5266.52 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 8980.59 tons [28]. - **3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory was 1380.08 tons, a decrease of 48.39 tons compared to the previous period. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9309.43 tons, an increase of 316.38 tons compared to the previous period. The available days of imported iron ore for steel mills was 22 days, an increase of 2 days compared to the previous period, due to pre - holiday restocking [29]. - **3.5 Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 241.02 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, and the hot metal output maintained a high level with stronger resilience than expected [32]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high. Although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As the new seasonal peak season begins, steel demand rebounds month-on-month but the strength is weak. The supply side of steel mills is at a relatively high level, and the steel inventory pressure is large. The output of building materials decreases, but the output of hot-rolled coils increases, and the inventory of the five major steel products accumulates. For the long-term steel demand, although there is resilience, there is no obvious increase expected in real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, etc. The market's main concern is whether anti-involution trading will occur again. Pay attention to policy news and terminal demand. The operating strategy is to participate in the short-term long side [35]. Section Summaries 1.走势回顾 - The main contract of hot-rolled coils fell from a high and then fluctuated narrowly in the short term [7]. - After the futures rebounded and then fell, the spot price followed [8]. 2.基差价差 - The 01, 05, and 10 basis of hot-rolled coils are 46, 23, and 3 respectively [12]. - The cold-hot spread is not elaborated in detail in the text. 3.供需分析 - The production profit of hot-rolled coils is 144, the 01, 05, and 10 disk profits are 199, 172, and 213 respectively [19]. - The output of hot-rolled coils is 326.49, cold-rolled coils is 85.06, rebar is 206.45, and the five major steel products is 855.46 [22]. - The raw materials are not elaborated in detail in the text. - The inventory of hot-rolled coils is 377.99, cold-rolled coils is 180.16, rebar is 650.28, and the five major steel products is 1519.74 [28]. - The terminal demand is not elaborated in detail in the text. - The export of hot-rolled coils is flat month-on-month but remains strong year-on-year [33]. 4.后市展望 - With the start of the new seasonal peak season, steel demand recovers month-on-month but weakly. The supply of steel mills is high, and inventory pressure is large. The output of building materials decreases while that of hot-rolled coils increases, and the inventory of the five major steel products accumulates. The long-term steel demand has resilience, but there is no obvious increase expected in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing. The market focuses on whether anti-involution trading will occur again. Pay attention to policy news and terminal demand. The operation strategy is to participate in the short-term long side [35].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron due to factors such as supply - demand balance and coal price trends. For manganese - silicon, with overall loose supply - demand but low inventory and stable thermal coal prices, significant price trends are unlikely. For silicon - iron, its price movement depends on energy prices, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited [43]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - **Steel Inventory**: This week, the total steel inventory was 1519.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13 million tons with a significantly narrowed growth rate. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 418.38 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons, and the social inventory was 1101.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.27 million tons [5]. - **Industry Policies and Data**: The National Energy Administration recently issued the "Technical Guidelines for the Preparation of Coal Mining Area Master Plans". In August, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to August 2025, China's export of mechanical and electrical products was 10.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of the total export value. In August 2025, China exported 760,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In August 2025, China exported 2.89 million air conditioners, a year - on - year decrease of 22.4%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 47.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In August, the export of refrigerators was 7.21 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 54.86 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In August, the export of washing machines was 3.28 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 23.03 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. In August, the export of LCD TVs was 10.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 69 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, China's excavator output was 245,556, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [5]. - **Manganese - Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The report shows the price changes of manganese - silicon futures and spot in different regions, including the basis, year - on - year changes, 30 - day price changes, and weekly price changes. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the basis was 110, with a year - on - year increase of 0.53%, a 30 - day decrease of 0.35%, and a weekly increase of 0.88%, and the price was 5730 [9]. - **Silicon - Iron Futures and Spot Prices**: Although not detailed in the given text, the report also mentions the silicon - iron futures trend and basis situation [13][16]. - **Power Price Changes**: The report presents the power price changes of ferroalloy in different regions such as Ningxia, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia from June 20, 2023, to August 20, 2025 [19]. Part 2: Manganese - Silicon Industry Chain Overview The report shows the price, import volume, inventory, profit estimation, output, and demand (related to steel output) of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon industry chain from 2019 to 2025 through charts, but no specific numerical data is given in the text [21][24][26][27][30][31]. Part 3: Silicon - Iron Industry Chain Overview The report shows the profit estimation, output, and demand (related to steel output) of silicon - iron in the silicon - iron industry chain from 2019 to 2025 through charts, but no specific numerical data is given in the text [34][38][40]. Part 4: Outlook - **Manganese - Silicon**: Last week, manganese - silicon futures rose, and the spot price increased slightly with a slight decline in the basis. The September bid price of the iconic steel mill was 6000 yuan/ton, slightly higher than expected, but the long - term indecision of downstream bids indicated general demand. The output of manganese - silicon decreased month - on - month, and steel production also decreased. With overall loose supply - demand but low inventory and stable thermal coal spot prices, significant price trends are unlikely, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [43]. - **Silicon - Iron**: Last week, silicon - iron futures rose, the spot price reached a high and then slightly declined, and the basis changed little. The stable thermal coal spot price and high market expectations for the recovery of thermal coal prices drove the rebound of silicon - iron. In terms of supply - demand, the output last week remained flat, but steel production decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. According to Mysteel statistics, the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 34.84%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output was 16,150 tons, unchanged from last week. The trend of silicon - iron depends on energy price changes, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [43].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated September 21, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The nickel market is at the bottom range and continues to fluctuate. The Shanghai nickel price showed a slight decline this week. Refined nickel demand remains weak. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the short - term riots in Indonesia have not affected the supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but it remains to be seen if the weak trend can be changed in the medium term. In the stainless steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is approximately 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [2][35] Group 3: Market Review - This part focuses on the trend of the main price contracts of the domestic and foreign nickel futures markets, showing the closing price trend of nickel futures (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [6][7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - It shows the port inventory of Chinese nickel ore and the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data source from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [9][10][11] Mid - stream - **Electrolytic nickel price**: Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton, and the data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] - **Nickel sulfate price**: Illustrates the price trend of nickel sulfate in the same time range as above, with the unit of yuan/ton, and the data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16] - **Nickel iron**: Shows the monthly import volume of nickel iron in China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% nickel iron from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with the import volume unit of tons and the price unit of yuan/nickel, and the data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [17][18] Downstream - **Stainless steel price**: Presents the closing price trend of stainless steel futures (continuous) from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [19][20] - **Stainless steel futures positions**: Shows the position volume trend of stainless steel futures from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with the unit of lots, and the data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [21][22][23] - **Wuxi stainless steel inventory**: Displays the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the unit of tons, and the data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [24][25][26] - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: Shows the monthly production values of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy - storage batteries, with the unit of megawatt - hours, and the data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [27][28][29] - **New - energy vehicle production**: Presents the monthly production value of China's new - energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [30][31] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the US, on September 17, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in 2025 and the fourth after three cuts in 2024. The Fed predicts another 50 - basis - point cut by the end of the year and 25 - basis - point cuts each year in the next two years. In China, in August, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level continued to expand. The production and operation activity expectation index rose 1.1 percentage points to 53.7%, rising for two consecutive months, showing that most manufacturing enterprises' confidence in the future market has increased. The non - manufacturing business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, and the service business activity index rose 0.5 percentage points to 50.5% [35]

Report Title - "连粕大幅下挫 油脂高位震荡—国信期货油脂油料周报" [2] Report Date - September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the protein meal market, the CBOT soybeans and domestic continuous meal both showed a downward trend this week. The future of US soybean exports depends on the improvement of Sino-US economic and trade relations, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by factors such as whether China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian premium, and RMB exchange rate. In the oil market, the US biofuel policy is unclear, and the Malaysian palm oil is in a high - level shock. The domestic oil market is affected by supply, cost, and policy, showing an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6][139]. Content Summary by Section Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis Market Trends - CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell this week. Domestic continuous meal oscillated lower, with the main contract breaking through the 3000 - integer mark and then rebounding at the end of the week. Domestic soybean meal spot prices also declined under pressure [6]. Export and Inspection - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, higher than expected, but the cumulative export inspection volume this year is still affected by China's non - purchase [10][12]. Crop Growth - As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [24]. Weather Conditions - North American weather is complex, with the eastern half experiencing cool and dry weather, and some areas having unstable weather due to the interaction of cold fronts and monsoon circulation. South American weather information is not detailed in the report [27]. Oilseed Market - In August, the US soybean crushing volume decreased, but it was still higher than the same period last year. Analysts have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, and the US soybean industry is affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [41][42]. Inventory and Profit - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical available days for crushing are 19 days. The spot and futures crushing margins both declined significantly [50]. Production and Inventory - As of the 37th week (September 13), the domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The rapeseed opening rate also increased, but it was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [58][67]. Consumption and Basis - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 37th week was 190.12 tons, an increase from last week. The basis analysis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows different trends [61]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis Market Trends - US soybean oil first rose and then fell this week. Malaysian palm oil followed US soybean oil and oscillated lower. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rising, soybean oil first falling and then rebounding, and palm oil following Malaysian palm oil and oscillating [74]. International Oil Information - In August, the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory decreased. In Brazil, the proportion of soybean oil in soybean crushing profit reached a record high. India's palm oil imports increased in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. Different institutions have different statistics on Malaysia's September 1 - 15 palm oil exports [77][78]. Weather Conditions - Southeast Asia has experienced large - scale seasonal rains, with some areas having heavy rainfall [85]. Price and Spread - The prices and spreads of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in the spot and futures markets show different trends. The overall inventory of domestic oils increased slightly this week, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories increasing and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [95]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. The oil - to - meal ratio of beans decreased, while that of rapeseed increased slightly. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal increased slightly [115]. Inter - monthly Spread - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil increased significantly [123]. Part 3: Market Outlook Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic continuous meal, and various oil and meal indexes shows different trends [129][130][132]. Next - Week Outlook - Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of different varieties show different trends. Fundamentally, the protein meal market is affected by Sino - US trade and domestic inventory, and the oil market is affected by international policies and domestic demand [138][139].