Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 0.87%. The commodity market generally fell, and downstream demand was weak, not supporting a significant upward movement of the market [7]. - It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly fluctuate at a low level, waiting for guidance from the demand side [34]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 0.87%. The decline was due to the general fall in the commodity market and weak downstream demand [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of February 5th, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5302 yuan/ton, a 1.05% decrease from the previous week, and the decline rate increased by 0.62 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4553 yuan/ton, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.06 percentage points [13]. - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 billion tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to December increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to the previous year [17]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1127 billion tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [21]. - **European Port Wood Pulp Inventory in December**: In December 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 8.58% month - on - month and 4.38% compared to December 2024. The inventory in ports in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, and Germany increased by 14.92%, 10.07%, and 14.99% respectively month - on - month, while the inventory in ports in Italy and Spain decreased by 0.73% and 4.90% respectively [24]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Pulp Inventory**: No detailed data provided. - **Weekly On - Site Operating Rate of Downstream Pulp Types**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of February 5th, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 1.74 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 3.09 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 4.96 percentage points; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 0.75 percentage points [30]. 3. Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it is necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in transactions. The pre - holiday stockpiling may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption demand and some paper mills taking early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [34].

国信期货贵金属专题报告 / 国信期货研究 Page 1 白银 海外风暴突袭市场 白银巨震风控第一 2026 年 2 月 3 日 主要结论 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2026 年 1 月，黄金与白银承接上年强势，在宏观不确定性与地缘风险持续 交织的推动下，再度开启新一轮凌厉涨势。然而，极致的狂欢往往预示着风险的 临近。这场盛宴在持续不到 48 小时后便戛然而止，一场罕见的史诗级暴跌在 1 月 30 日晚间猝然降临，瞬间逆转了市场叙事。其根本原因在于前期脱离基本面 的急速拉升，积累了天量的高杠杆获利盘，市场结构极度脆弱。而特朗普正式提 名立场偏鹰的凯文·沃什为美联储下任主席，打破了市场对"无约束宽松"的政 策幻想，触发大规模、连锁式的流动性踩踏，导致纽约期金单日跌幅超 10%，白 银暴跌逾 30%。 短期内，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置逻辑虽未破坏，但在市 场剧烈波动中，建议仅保留轻仓的黄金多头作为底仓，目的在于保持对长期趋势 的接触，而非博弈短期波动。白银期货由于投机属性更强、波动性显著更高，目 前风险已急剧放大，建议投资者保持极度谨慎，可考虑及时减仓或转为观望。临 近春节长假，外盘潜在的不确 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index will decline while bonds will rebound. Stock index futures will see a decline in trading volume below 3 trillion, and the stock market will experience an oscillating decline. For treasury bond futures, due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [122][124] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai 50 and CSI 300**: These indices are oscillating at high levels [9] - **CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 has fallen from high levels, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all increased [20][23] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion [27] - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are stable, while those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have significantly declined [30] - **CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent. The ALPHA of the energy, materials, and telecommunications sectors is positive, while that of the industrial, optional, consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, and public sectors is negative throughout the cycle [36][39] - **Newly - Listed Companies**: In December, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 13 [47] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Monetary Market Indicators** - **Treasury Bond IRR**: The quarterly IRR of 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [77][80] - **Inter - bank Repurchase Rate**: The inter - bank repurchase weighted interest rate has slightly declined [84] - **Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has slightly declined [89] - **Economic Indicators** - **CPI - PPI**: In December, the CPI was 0.8%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.9% [93] - **PMI**: In December, the PMI fell to 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, indicating weak economic recovery [98] - **Consumption**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, and consumer data declined. However, consumer confidence is trending upwards [104][108] - **Monetary Supply**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, and the growth of credit accelerated. M1 was 3.8%. The newly - added RMB loans were 910 billion [111][115] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market will shrink below 3 trillion. Policy adjustments and regulatory actions will lead to an oscillating decline in the stock index [124] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, the 10 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.8090%. Long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [124]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Manganese silicon: Last week, the manganese silicon futures rose and then fell, the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias, and the basis was at a high level. The overall production capacity of manganese silicon is in excess and there are new production capacities coming into operation. The terminal steel demand is not high, and the actual supply - demand is weak. However, the short - term production profit is poor, the production and price of manganese silicon are generally low, and the cost support is strong due to the mine's upward adjustment of far - month quotes. The manganese silicon market continues to cut production. It is recommended to view it as oscillating with a bullish bias [46]. - Ferrosilicon: Last week, the ferrosilicon futures rose and then fell, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded, and the basis remained flat. The spot price of thermal coal has stabilized at the bottom, and the electricity price at the end of the year varies. The production profit of ferrosilicon is poor, and the production is at a low level. The ferrosilicon trend depends on energy price changes. Considering the peak season of thermal coal at the end of the year and the low ferrosilicon production, it is also recommended to view it as oscillating with a bullish bias [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Review - **Important News**: On January 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the power generation - side capacity price mechanism; at a press conference, it was reported that in 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6045 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the expenditure was 28.7395 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1% [5][6]. - **Manganese Silicon Futures and Price Changes**: The manganese silicon futures had a certain price trend, and the basis, price, and their changes in different regions and for different ore varieties were presented. For example, the basis in Inner Mongolia had a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%, and the spot price of Australian 44Mn had a year - on - year decrease of 15.31% [7][9]. - **Ferrosilicon Futures and Basis**: The ferrosilicon futures also rose and then fell, and the basis situation in the production area was shown [12]. - **Main Production Area Electricity and Coal Prices**: The changes in electricity prices in main production areas such as Ningxia, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia, as well as the coal prices in main production areas and ports were presented [17][19] Part 2: Overview of the Manganese Silicon Industry Chain - **Manganese Ore**: The price, import volume, and inventory of manganese ore over the years were presented, as well as the profit estimation, production volume, and the relationship with steel demand in the manganese silicon industry [23][26][28] Part 3: Overview of the Ferrosilicon Industry Chain - **Ferrosilicon**: The profit estimation, production volume, and the relationship with steel demand in the ferrosilicon industry were presented [37][40] Part 4: Outlook for the Future - **Manganese Silicon**: It is recommended to view the manganese silicon market as oscillating with a bullish bias due to factors such as cost support and production cuts [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: It is also recommended to view the ferrosilicon market as oscillating with a bullish bias considering the energy price and production situation [46]

研究所 高位震荡，上冲乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2026年02月01日 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 2025/10/31 2025/12/31 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成 ...

研究所 补库提振减弱 玉米震荡调整 ——国信期货玉米周报 过去一周玉米现货震荡略有调整，锦州港现货价格周涨0.43%至2320元/吨，期货高位回落，主力C2603下跌1.26%至2271元/吨 ，近远月价差先冲高后回落。随着下游补库的接近尾声，现货转为震荡运行，而期货因担忧春季售粮压力有所下跌。基本面来 看，根据我的农产品网数据，本周全国售粮进度推进到60%，较上周提升4个百分点，同比增加2个百分点，分区域来看，东北 依然销售进度偏慢，华北销售落后于去年。需求端来看，畜禽养殖规模仍处于偏高水平，短期刚性需求较强，但去产能背景下 ，未来需求有转弱可能。饲料企业本周原料库存再次提升，同比处于中性水平，深加工企业经过前期的补库，原料库存水平回 升明显，但库存消费比仍处于中偏低位置。港口来看，南方港口谷物库存低位，北港库存有所回升，但同比仍不高。总体而言 ，随着春节临近，现货端进入购销清淡的时间段。期货来看，随着注册仓单回升，近端推涨动力减弱，但盘面贴水仍会对其形 成一定支撑。操作上，震荡思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 2026年01月30日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated more significantly this week, following the overall trend of commodities. Driven by macro - positive factors, it rose significantly on Wednesday with obvious capital inflows, but was pressured around 15,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, although it is the off - season, cotton procurement still has rigid demand support. The strong basis boosts Zhengmian. The yarn and cotton prices are in a linked state, and the industrial chain is relatively healthy. The expected reduction in planting area needs to be implemented step - by - step without official confirmation. Overall, Zhengmian has short - term resistance above and support below, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - Internationally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and drought is expected to continue in the first quarter. The India - EU Free Trade Agreement has been officially signed, and India's textile export tariffs to the EU will be reduced after months of review and approval. Indian cotton prices and the quotes of the Cotton Corporation of India are stable. India has purchased about 30% of the expected production of lint cotton this season, and the auction turnover is lower than the listing volume. The yarn price in Vietnam is stable, orders are active with price - increase expectations, the yarn in Pakistan shows a strong trend, while the Indian yarn has a large bargaining space due to weak demand. Overall, there is support at the bottom of the international market, but the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated sharply this week with a weekly decline of 0.17%. ICE cotton futures fluctuated weakly with a weekly decline of 0.97% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index decreased by 307 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 313 yuan/ton compared with last week [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the first half of January, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.8623 million tons. With a large amount of new cotton on the market, the market has entered an accelerated inventory - accumulation stage [24]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OE 10S棉纱 increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S棉纱 increased by 110 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S棉纱 increased by 90 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 223. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,243, and the valid forecast was 1,072, totaling 11,315 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - The content only shows the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase, but no specific analysis or summary information [42]. 3.1.9 U.S. Cotton Exports - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of January 22, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 203,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 15,000 bales [47]. 3.1.10 U.S. Weather - The drought in the U.S. cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) accounts for 36.0% [50]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend with short - term resistance above and support below. Internationally, the international cotton market is also expected to maintain a volatile trend with support at the bottom and limited rebound space [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54].

研究所 偏强震荡 郑糖下方支撑确认 ——国信期货白糖周报 2026年1月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖偏强震荡，周度涨幅1.31%。 ICE期糖低位震荡，周度跌幅0.14%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 2、广西、云南销售情况 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 0 5 10 15 20 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 40 60 80 100 120 140 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 0 20 160 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 25 30 35 9月 2020/21 2021/22 202 ...

研究所 需求不及预期 生猪期现同跌 ——国信期货生猪周报 2026年01月30日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 2 关键数据与图表 录 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货下跌，全国均价较上周下跌0.67元至12.21元/公斤，南方表现尤其弱势；期货也呈现下跌走势，主力LH2603 下跌2.98%至11220元/吨，商品曲线正向结构有所变陡，近端反映节后淡季压力，而远端有去产能支撑相对抗跌。基本面来看 ，从前期仔猪出生数据及生猪饲料产销量来看，到二季度国内理论标猪出栏量依然处于高位；从能繁母猪存栏来看，去年四季 度去产能速度未达政策调控目标，后期关注是否有新的政策指导出台。短期来看，春节前旺季需求启动偏慢，而前期二育及压 栏积压的活体库存偏高，随着春节前旺季窗口的缩短，大体重猪或难以出清，意味着春节后仍有一定的消化压力，这会对近端 合约不利。远端合约连续下跌后，估值进入合适水平，进一步下行空间或有限。操作上，近端震荡偏弱对待。远端逢低长线买 入。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 免责声明：本报告以 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39%. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it's necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and transactions are difficult to increase. The pre - holiday restocking may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption and some paper mills' early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [7][33] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of January 29, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5358 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from last week; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4593 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from last week [11] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to December increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [15] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, up 4.96% from last week, and the increase rate expanded by 1.59 percentage points [19] - **European Main Port Chemical Pulp Consumption and Inventory in December**: In December 2025, the consumption of European chemical pulp was 722,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the inventory was 759,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. The inventory days were 28 days, up 1 day from the same period last year [22] - **SHFE Pulp Inventory**: No detailed data provided - **Downstream Pulp Variety Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of January 29, the operating load rates of downstream paper types showed obvious differentiation. The operating rates of double - copper paper and household paper increased slightly, while those of double - offset paper and white cardboard decreased [27] 3. Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it's necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and transactions are difficult to increase. The pre - holiday restocking may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption and some paper mills' early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [33]