1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index will decline while bonds will rebound. Stock index futures will see a decline in trading volume below 3 trillion, and the stock market will experience an oscillating decline. For treasury bond futures, due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [122][124] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai 50 and CSI 300**: These indices are oscillating at high levels [9] - **CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 has fallen from high levels, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all increased [20][23] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion [27] - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are stable, while those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have significantly declined [30] - **CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent. The ALPHA of the energy, materials, and telecommunications sectors is positive, while that of the industrial, optional, consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, and public sectors is negative throughout the cycle [36][39] - **Newly - Listed Companies**: In December, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 13 [47] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Monetary Market Indicators** - **Treasury Bond IRR**: The quarterly IRR of 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [77][80] - **Inter - bank Repurchase Rate**: The inter - bank repurchase weighted interest rate has slightly declined [84] - **Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has slightly declined [89] - **Economic Indicators** - **CPI - PPI**: In December, the CPI was 0.8%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.9% [93] - **PMI**: In December, the PMI fell to 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, indicating weak economic recovery [98] - **Consumption**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, and consumer data declined. However, consumer confidence is trending upwards [104][108] - **Monetary Supply**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, and the growth of credit accelerated. M1 was 3.8%. The newly - added RMB loans were 910 billion [111][115] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market will shrink below 3 trillion. Policy adjustments and regulatory actions will lead to an oscillating decline in the stock index [124] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, the 10 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.8090%. Long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [124]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Manganese silicon: Last week, the manganese silicon futures rose and then fell, the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias, and the basis was at a high level. The overall production capacity of manganese silicon is in excess and there are new production capacities coming into operation. The terminal steel demand is not high, and the actual supply - demand is weak. However, the short - term production profit is poor, the production and price of manganese silicon are generally low, and the cost support is strong due to the mine's upward adjustment of far - month quotes. The manganese silicon market continues to cut production. It is recommended to view it as oscillating with a bullish bias [46]. - Ferrosilicon: Last week, the ferrosilicon futures rose and then fell, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded, and the basis remained flat. The spot price of thermal coal has stabilized at the bottom, and the electricity price at the end of the year varies. The production profit of ferrosilicon is poor, and the production is at a low level. The ferrosilicon trend depends on energy price changes. Considering the peak season of thermal coal at the end of the year and the low ferrosilicon production, it is also recommended to view it as oscillating with a bullish bias [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Review - **Important News**: On January 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the power generation - side capacity price mechanism; at a press conference, it was reported that in 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6045 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the expenditure was 28.7395 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1% [5][6]. - **Manganese Silicon Futures and Price Changes**: The manganese silicon futures had a certain price trend, and the basis, price, and their changes in different regions and for different ore varieties were presented. For example, the basis in Inner Mongolia had a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%, and the spot price of Australian 44Mn had a year - on - year decrease of 15.31% [7][9]. - **Ferrosilicon Futures and Basis**: The ferrosilicon futures also rose and then fell, and the basis situation in the production area was shown [12]. - **Main Production Area Electricity and Coal Prices**: The changes in electricity prices in main production areas such as Ningxia, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia, as well as the coal prices in main production areas and ports were presented [17][19] Part 2: Overview of the Manganese Silicon Industry Chain - **Manganese Ore**: The price, import volume, and inventory of manganese ore over the years were presented, as well as the profit estimation, production volume, and the relationship with steel demand in the manganese silicon industry [23][26][28] Part 3: Overview of the Ferrosilicon Industry Chain - **Ferrosilicon**: The profit estimation, production volume, and the relationship with steel demand in the ferrosilicon industry were presented [37][40] Part 4: Outlook for the Future - **Manganese Silicon**: It is recommended to view the manganese silicon market as oscillating with a bullish bias due to factors such as cost support and production cuts [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: It is also recommended to view the ferrosilicon market as oscillating with a bullish bias considering the energy price and production situation [46]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "High-level Volatility, Lack of Upward Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated February 1, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - The section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the inventory of nickel ore ports in China [10] - Midstream: It covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel [13][15][17] - Downstream: It includes the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy storage batteries and new energy vehicles [19][21][26][29] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on January 29, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%. Market analysis predicts the first interest rate cut may be postponed to June 2026 [34] - In China, economic data in December 2025 provides a positive start for 2026. The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, non - manufacturing business activity index reached 50.2%, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [34] - The Shanghai nickel market showed a volatile trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level, and supply disturbance factors are still at play. The market is in high - level consolidation [34] - It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract is approximately 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless steel contract is about 13,800 - 15,500 yuan/ton [34]

Report Title - "补库提振减弱 玉米震荡调整 —— 国信期货玉米周报" released on January 30, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly, with the Jinzhou Port spot price rising 0.43% to 2,320 yuan/ton, while the futures price dropped from a high, with the main contract C2603 falling 1.26% to 2,271 yuan/ton, and the near-far month spread first surging and then falling. As downstream restocking nears completion, the spot market has turned to a volatile state, and the futures market has declined due to concerns about the spring grain sales pressure. Fundamentally, according to My Agricultural Products Network data, the national grain sales progress has advanced to 60% this week, a 4-percentage-point increase from last week and a 2-percentage-point increase year-on-year. Regionally, the sales progress in the Northeast is still slow, and that in North China lags behind last year. On the demand side, the scale of livestock and poultry farming remains at a relatively high level, with strong short-term rigid demand, but there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future under the background of capacity reduction. Feed enterprises' raw material inventory has increased again this week and is at a neutral level year-on-year. Deep-processing enterprises' raw material inventory has significantly rebounded after previous restocking, but the inventory consumption ratio is still at a relatively low level. In terms of ports, the grain inventory at southern ports is at a low level, and the inventory at northern ports has increased but is still not high year-on-year. Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters a period of light trading. For futures, as the registered warehouse receipts increase, the upward momentum in the near term weakens, but the discount of the futures price to the spot price will still provide some support. The operation strategy is to adopt a volatile mindset [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - **1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes** - Not provided - **1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes** - The Jinzhou Port spot price rose 0.43% to 2,320 yuan/ton last week [7] - **1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread** - Not provided - **1.4 Corn Sales Progress** - The national grain sales progress has advanced to 60% this week, a 4-percentage-point increase from last week and a 2-percentage-point increase year-on-year. Regionally, the sales progress in the Northeast is still slow, and that in North China lags behind last year [7] - **1.5 Corn Import** - Not provided - **1.6 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand** - The scale of livestock and poultry farming remains at a relatively high level, with strong short-term rigid demand, but there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future under the background of capacity reduction [7] - **1.7 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand: Feed Production** - Not provided - **1.8 Deep-Processing Demand** - Deep-processing enterprises' raw material inventory has significantly rebounded after previous restocking, but the inventory consumption ratio is still at a relatively low level [7] - **1.9 Substitutes** - Not provided - **1.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics** - The inventory at northern ports has increased but is still not high year-on-year [7] - **1.11 Southern Port Corn Dynamics** - Not provided - **1.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics** - The grain inventory at southern ports is at a low level [7] 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics - **2.1 Corn Starch Futures** - Not provided - **2.2 Corn Starch Spot** - Not provided - **2.3 Corn - Starch Spread** - Not provided - **2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory** - Not provided - **2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand** - Not provided - **2.6 Cassava Starch** - Not provided 3. International Corn Market Dynamics - **3.1 US Corn Futures Market** - Not provided - **3.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress** - Not provided - **3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress** - Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated more significantly this week, following the overall trend of commodities. Driven by macro - positive factors, it rose significantly on Wednesday with obvious capital inflows, but was pressured around 15,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, although it is the off - season, cotton procurement still has rigid demand support. The strong basis boosts Zhengmian. The yarn and cotton prices are in a linked state, and the industrial chain is relatively healthy. The expected reduction in planting area needs to be implemented step - by - step without official confirmation. Overall, Zhengmian has short - term resistance above and support below, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - Internationally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and drought is expected to continue in the first quarter. The India - EU Free Trade Agreement has been officially signed, and India's textile export tariffs to the EU will be reduced after months of review and approval. Indian cotton prices and the quotes of the Cotton Corporation of India are stable. India has purchased about 30% of the expected production of lint cotton this season, and the auction turnover is lower than the listing volume. The yarn price in Vietnam is stable, orders are active with price - increase expectations, the yarn in Pakistan shows a strong trend, while the Indian yarn has a large bargaining space due to weak demand. Overall, there is support at the bottom of the international market, but the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated sharply this week with a weekly decline of 0.17%. ICE cotton futures fluctuated weakly with a weekly decline of 0.97% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index decreased by 307 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 313 yuan/ton compared with last week [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the first half of January, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.8623 million tons. With a large amount of new cotton on the market, the market has entered an accelerated inventory - accumulation stage [24]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OE 10S棉纱 increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S棉纱 increased by 110 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S棉纱 increased by 90 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 223. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,243, and the valid forecast was 1,072, totaling 11,315 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - The content only shows the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase, but no specific analysis or summary information [42]. 3.1.9 U.S. Cotton Exports - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of January 22, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 203,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 15,000 bales [47]. 3.1.10 U.S. Weather - The drought in the U.S. cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) accounts for 36.0% [50]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend with short - term resistance above and support below. Internationally, the international cotton market is also expected to maintain a volatile trend with support at the bottom and limited rebound space [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar market showed a relatively strong upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 1.31%. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. The international sugar market is in a weak and volatile state, with the lower support level at around 14 cents per pound. The recommended trading strategy is short - term trading [9][56][57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend, with a weekly increase of 1.31%. ICE sugar futures were in a low - level volatile state, with a weekly decrease of 0.14% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not elaborated in the provided text 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - In January, although the spot sugar trading in Guangxi was mostly moderate and there were few trading volume spikes, the estimated sales volume for the month was 70 - 80 tons, close to the level of the same period last year. Yunnan's sales volume was better than that of Guangxi and is expected to increase year - on - year [56] 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In December, the sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil were 4,019 yuan/ton and 5,090 yuan/ton respectively; those from Thailand were 4,078 yuan/ton and 5,166 yuan/ton respectively [21] 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in December was approximately 2.11 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25] 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 14,208, an increase of 402 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 14,119, and the number of effective forecasts was 89 [33] 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of December, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the sugar production was 40.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [37] 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 50.82%, compared to 48.16% in the same period last year [42] 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In December, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.913 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [44] 3.1.10 International Main Production Area Weather Conditions - There was abundant rainfall in Brazil's main production areas, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. There was little precipitation in India, which was beneficial for sugarcane pressing [52] 3.2 Market Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou sugar showed a relatively strong performance this week. Despite two cold snaps in Guangxi in January, the sugarcane crushing progress was smooth. The extended Chinese New Year stocking period is expected to result in a sales volume of 70 - 80 tons in January, close to last year's level. Yunnan's sales are better than Guangxi's. The market has confirmed the lower support level, and short - term volatility is expected to continue [56] - **International Market**: The international sugar market is in a weak and volatile state. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has accelerated, but the largest sugar - producing state may end the season early due to insufficient sugarcane, and the actual export may only be 800,000 tons. Thailand's sugar production has decreased significantly year - on - year due to white leaf disease and delayed crushing, and the disease may further reduce production. The lower support level of the international sugar market is around 14 cents per pound [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Past week, both live hog spot and futures prices declined. The national average spot price dropped by 0.67 yuan to 12.21 yuan/kg, with the southern region being particularly weak. The main futures contract LH2603 fell 2.98% to 11,220 yuan/ton, and the commodity curve's positive structure steepened. The near - end reflects post - holiday off - season pressure, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction and relatively resistant to decline [7]. - Based on previous piglet birth data and hog feed production and sales, the theoretical standard hog slaughter volume in China will remain high until the second quarter. The de - capacity speed of breeding sows in the fourth quarter of last year did not meet the policy control target, and attention should be paid to whether new policy guidance will be introduced [7]. - In the short term, the peak - season demand before the Spring Festival started slowly, and the inventory of live hogs from secondary fattening and pressure - barring was high. As the peak - season window before the Spring Festival shortens, large - weight hogs may be difficult to clear, which means there will still be some digestion pressure after the Spring Festival, which is unfavorable for near - end contracts. After continuous declines, the far - end contracts' valuation has reached an appropriate level, and the further downside space may be limited. The near - end should be treated as oscillating weakly, and long - term buying on dips is recommended for the far - end [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - Live hog spot prices fell last week, and futures also declined. The near - end contracts are under pressure due to post - holiday off - season and inventory issues, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction. The theoretical hog slaughter volume will be high in the second quarter, and the de - capacity of breeding sows did not meet the target. Near - end contracts should be treated as oscillating weakly, and far - end contracts can be bought on dips [7]. 2. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not initiated when a level - three early warning is issued, may be initiated at the discretion when a level - two early warning is issued, and are initiated when a level - one early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are initiated when a level - two early warning is issued and the release intensity is increased when a level - one early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and releases are mainly organized during key periods after a level - one early warning is issued. Provinces can determine their own reserve release initiation conditions, which should not be higher than the central reserve release initiation conditions [65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39%. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it's necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and transactions are difficult to increase. The pre - holiday restocking may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption and some paper mills' early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [7][33] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of January 29, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5358 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from last week; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4593 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from last week [11] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to December increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [15] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, up 4.96% from last week, and the increase rate expanded by 1.59 percentage points [19] - **European Main Port Chemical Pulp Consumption and Inventory in December**: In December 2025, the consumption of European chemical pulp was 722,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the inventory was 759,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. The inventory days were 28 days, up 1 day from the same period last year [22] - **SHFE Pulp Inventory**: No detailed data provided - **Downstream Pulp Variety Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of January 29, the operating load rates of downstream paper types showed obvious differentiation. The operating rates of double - copper paper and household paper increased slightly, while those of double - offset paper and white cardboard decreased [27] 3. Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it's necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and transactions are difficult to increase. The pre - holiday restocking may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption and some paper mills' early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The apple futures market is expected to remain volatile at a high level before the Spring Festival. Low inventory provides some support for the market, and the operation should be based on a volatile mindset [37] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, first rose and then fell, maintaining an overall volatile market. The festival stocking effect boosted the market to rise slightly, but on Friday, the general decline in the commodity market led to a weakening of the apple futures market [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of January 29, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.0101 billion tons, and the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 45.63%. The defective rate of low - price fruits from fruit farmers was relatively high, and the number of packaging workers increased recently [13] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Cold - storage shipment volume**: As of January 29, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.38 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 18.32%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 48.36%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 43.15%, a decrease of 2.56 percentage points this week. The shipment speed in the producing areas has accelerated due to the Spring Festival stocking peak [18] - **Export volume**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The overseas demand increased due to the Christmas and New Year festivals, leading to a significant month - on - month increase in export volume [22] - **Spot price in the producing area**: As of January 30, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended price of first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples above 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and that of striped apples was 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty. The intended price of first - and second - grade merchant's apples above 80 was 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty. The price of first - to third - grade fruit farmer's apples above 80 was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty, the price of general goods was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the price of third - grade apples was 1.8 - 2.5 yuan per catty. The number of packaging workers increased recently, and the shipment situation was okay [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]