研究所 中东局势影响 油脂领涨市场 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年6月20日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆高位震荡，期价较上一周明显抬升。周初美国生物柴油政策利好以及国际原油高涨给美豆带来提振，美豆震荡走高。随后美豆优良率环比下降，临池小麦高涨 ，均给美豆带来提振。不过美豆油高位获利平仓以及国际原油高位震荡反复，让美豆涨势减弱。市场在高位震荡加剧。主力合约在前高1080附近略显阻力。受此影响，国内连粕市场跟随美豆 小幅走高，巴西升贴水先抑后扬，进口成本支撑连粕重心不断抬高，不过由于油脂走强，买油卖粕套利抑制了连粕的反弹空间。相对而言，本周豆粕现货库存继续增加，但累库幅度不高，下 游远期采购增加，油厂挺价明显，豆粕现货略有上扬。当前市场影响因素复杂，宏观因素超过商品自身供求本身。在美豆震荡偏强提振下，连粕偏强市场凸显。 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 25/01/02 25/01/16 2400 ...

研究所 均重继续下降 盘面企稳反弹 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年06月15日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货先弱后稳，整体重心较上周有所下移，期货低位反弹，主力LH09合约表现明显强于其余合约，使得LH7-9月 有差走弱，而LH9-11月差走强。基本面来看，集团场降重增量叠加社会场出栏积极，整体供应偏宽松，而目前消费处于淡季 ，加之二育入场有限，需求支撑亦不足。从中期来看，根据仔猪出生数据及饲料产销数据来看，后期整体出栏量大方向上仍呈 现逐步增多的趋势，尤其是10、11月环比增速或比较明显，供应总体偏充足。但政策指导企业降均重、限二育对供应节奏影 响亦较大，短期来看大企业降重出栏、二育受限使得当前有一定供应压力。而当下二育的减少，又会减轻未来供应的压力，从 而提升远月估值。综合来看，期货后期整体以底部宽幅震荡对待。操作上，短线偏多。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 2.生猪现货行情 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 ...

Report Title - "Surplus Grain Supply Tightens, Corn Trends Strongly - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - June 15, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the spot price of corn rose widely, market sentiment warmed up significantly, and terminal buyers increased their purchasing prices. The futures market rebounded rapidly and then entered a consolidation phase. Near - month contracts were generally stronger than far - month contracts, and the C09 - C01 spread widened. Fundamentally, domestic surplus grain tightened further, and the increase in imported arrivals was limited, strengthening market expectations of a supply gap. The start of the minimum purchase price for wheat alleviated market concerns, and although wheat still had a cost - performance advantage over corn, the substitution might not be enough to make up for the gap. The inventory at north and south ports decreased significantly, verifying the expectation of tightened surplus grain. Overall, corn is expected to fluctuate and trend upwards in the future. Follow - up attention should be paid to policy grain auctions and the price ratio of substitutes. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [7] Summary by Directory 1. Corn Futures Market Changes - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Starch Futures Market Changes - Not detailed in the provided content 3. Corn Spot Market Changes - The report provides price data for different regions including national, northeast, north - China, and south - China average prices, as well as prices in specific cities such as Harbin, Changchun, etc. For example, the national average price rose from 2301 to 2333, the northeast average price rose from 2205 to 2251, the north - China average price rose from 2361 to 2378, and the south - China average price rose from 2460 to 2494 [28] 4. Corn Spot Market: Regional Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content 5. Starch Spot Market Changes - The report provides price data from May 29 to June 12. For example, on May 29, the prices were 2650, 2700, 2740, 2860, 2850, and on June 12, they were 2650, 2700, 2740, 2870, 2880 [42] 6. Corn Starch Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content 7. Corn Selling Progress - Not detailed in the provided content 8. Corn Imports - Not detailed in the provided content 9. Feed and Livestock Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 11. Deep - processing Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 12. Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 13. Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not detailed in the provided content 14. Starch Apparent Consumption - Not detailed in the provided content 15. Substitutes - Not detailed in the provided content 16. North Port Corn Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 17. South Port Corn Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 18. South Port Grain Dynamics - Not detailed in the provided content 19. US Corn Futures Market - Not detailed in the provided content 20. US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not detailed in the provided content 21. US Corn Export Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 22. Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not detailed in the provided content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 9th to 10th, the China - US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London. They reached a principle agreement on measures to implement the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. It is expected that China - US economic and trade relations will further improve. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, and it is expected that the PMI in June may further rebound. [36] - This week, Shanghai nickel showed a volatile downward trend. The spot trading of refined nickel has improved, but it is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The market at the mine end has changed little, and the shipment from the Philippines is slow due to rainy weather. The price of nickel sulfate is weak, and salt factories are currently operating at a loss with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The stainless - steel spot and futures markets are weak, with purchases mainly for immediate needs and steel mills being cautious in raw - material procurement. Although demand has resilience, whether it will improve in the medium - to - long term remains to be verified by further data. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is approximately 12,300 to 13,000 yuan/ton. [36] Group 3: Summary by Report Catalog 1. Market Review - The report presents the historical price trend of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, in the form of a graph [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines to China in the form of a graph [13]. 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - The report presents the historical price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from a certain period in the form of a graph [16]. 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - The report shows the average price trend of nickel sulfate in China in the form of a graph [18]. 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The report presents the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel in the form of a graph [20]. 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - The report shows the historical closing price trend of stainless - steel futures (continuous) in the form of a graph [22]. 2.6 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - The report presents the historical position volume trend of stainless - steel futures in the form of a graph [24]. 2.7 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - The report shows the inventory trend of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel in the form of a graph [26]. 2.8 Downstream - Power and Energy - Storage Battery Production - The report presents the monthly production volume of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production volume of power and energy - storage batteries in China in the form of a graph [29]. 2.9 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - The report shows the monthly production volume of new - energy vehicles in China in the form of a graph [31]. 3. Future Outlook - The report analyzes the impact of China - US economic and trade consultations and China's May PMI data on the market. It also analyzes the current situation of the nickel and stainless - steel industries and gives the expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [36].

Report Title - Geopolitical Impact: Oils and Fats First Decline Then Rise - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal and oil markets are influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitics, trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. The markets show volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to short - term and long - term indicators and adopt appropriate trading strategies [6][70][141][142] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: CBOT soybeans fluctuated and declined this week, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated higher. The M2509 contract oscillated around 3050. The spread between buying meal and selling oil promoted the upward movement of Dalian soybean meal [6] - **USDA Export Inspection**: As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, higher than expected. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 45,188,245 tons, higher than the same period last year [11] - **Sowing Progress**: As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 90%, lower than the market expectation of 91%. The emergence rate was 75%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% [23] - **Weather**: Showery weather dominated the central and eastern United States, affecting fieldwork. Some areas had heavy rainfall, while others had light or no rainfall. Temperature differences were significant in different regions [26] - **Oilseed Market**: In May 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 1.392 billion tons. Brazil's soybean export volume in June is expected to be 1.408 billion tons. The USDA maintained its production forecasts for South American soybeans in the 2024/25 season [35][36][38] - **Inventory and Profit**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.9108 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit fluctuated around the break - even point, and the futures crushing profit was slightly in the red [46] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate decreased slightly, but remained at a high level. The soybean meal inventory increased, and the contract volume also increased significantly. The opening rate of imported rapeseed oil mills decreased and was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [54][63] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: International oils fluctuated within a range this week. US soybean oil fluctuated and closed higher, and Malaysian palm oil first declined then rose. Domestic oils showed a rotation effect, with wide - range fluctuations [70] - **International Oil Information**: China's edible vegetable oil imports in May were 462,000 tons. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an 8 - month high. The US bio - diesel and renewable diesel imports are expected to decrease significantly in 2025 [75][76] - **Weather in Southeast Asia**: Southwest monsoons brought moderate to heavy showers to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, which were beneficial to oil palm areas [85] - **Inventory**: As of the 23rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1504 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.85% [96] - **Price Relationships**: This week, the overall trend of oils was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded. The oil - meal ratios of soybeans and rapeseed continued to decline, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly decreased [113][119] Part 3: Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils and meals are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these indices [133][135][137] - **Technical Indicators**: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. Rapeseed meal's short - and medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. Soybean oil's short - and medium - term indicators are entangled, and the long - term indicator is bearish. Palm oil and rapeseed oil's short -, medium -, and long - term indicators are all entangled [141] - **Fundamentals**: For protein meals, the international market has limited short - term weather speculation space, and the US trade policy is improving. The domestic market may see accelerated inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and the cost - driven effect of Dalian soybean meal is weakened. For oils, international oils are affected by geopolitics and bio - diesel policies, with wide - range fluctuations. Domestic oils follow international trends and should be traded in a band - trading manner [142]

研究所 消费淡季，盘面偏弱运行 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年6月15日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 本周苹果期货主力合约AP2510先跌后涨，整体延续回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 Ø 根据卓创资讯公布的最新一期库存数据，截至2025年6月12日，全国冷库苹果剩余总量117.94万吨，处于近五年历史的最低位 置，其中山东产区冷库剩余量70.99万吨，陕西产区冷库库存量31.72万吨。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：出货速度放缓 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年6月12日，全国冷库库存比例约为8.93%，环比下降0.66个百分点，同比降低5.06个百分点，去 库存率为85 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly paper pulp report from Guoxin Futures, covering the week up to June 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures shifted positions. The SP2509 contract showed a weak performance, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [6] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Prices - As of June 12, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,989 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week and changing from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,161 yuan/ton, rising 0.07% from the previous week and changing from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,272 yuan/ton, falling 0.75% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.17 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,818 yuan/ton, falling 0.52% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.42 percentage points [11] April Pulp Imports - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 757,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 1.1993 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.70% [15] Port Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1771 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.07% and changing from a decline to an increase [18][34] European Inventory in April - In April 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 12.81% month-on-month but increased by 13.61% compared to April 2024. In April, the inventory in the ports of the UK and Germany increased by 38.60% and 15.72% month-on-month respectively, while the inventory in the ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Italy, and Spain decreased by 18.88%, 20.57%, and 2.67% month-on-month respectively. Overall, the inventory in most European ports decreased month-on-month, leading to a month-on-month decline in the total European port inventory in April [21] Consumption - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. In terms of wood pulp, the regular maintenance of domestic hardwood pulp industry sample enterprises ended this week, driving the industry's operating load rate to rebound by 2 percentage points compared to the previous week; the production schedule of chemimechanical pulp industry sample enterprises was stable, and the overall industry's operating load rate remained the same as the previous week. In terms of non-wood pulp, a few sample bamboo pulp enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the operating load rate decreased by 3 percentage points compared to the previous week; the previously maintained equipment of sugarcane pulp resumed production, and some enterprises flexibly switched to bagasse pulp production, with the operating load rate increasing by 7 percentage points compared to the previous week [27] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports increased by 2.07% month-on-month and changed from a decline to an increase. Regarding the external quotation, after Chile's Arauco Company announced the external quotation for wood pulp in June, the June quotation of CMPC's hardwood pulp "Little Bird" remained unchanged; other pulp mills have not yet announced a new round of external prices. Imported wood pulp traders lowered the spot prices of some grades in some regions, and downstream paper mills showed insufficient enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The sales rhythm of the pulp market was slow, and the dynamic game continued. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Markit data shows that the May Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, indicating weak manufacturing demand, while the PMI rose slightly to 51.1, with new orders increasing and the employment index reaching a six - month high, but corporate profits are still affected by cost pressures [78]. - On the supply side, blast furnace hot metal production declined, and the weakening demand impacted steel mill profits. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the weekly output of rebar decreased by 70,000 tons [78]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 3.5% week - on - week, with building materials consumption down 5.9% and plate consumption down 2.0%. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future [78]. - Due to market information disturbances in the raw material market and the profit - taking of short - position funds, the coal - coke futures prices rebounded significantly, driving up the center of gravity of finished product prices. Short - term operations are recommended [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and related indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased, and the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year - on - year [7]. - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and from January to April, it increased by 4.7%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% [7]. - In April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the producer price index decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [7]. - The China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks reached a substantial agreement, with both sides reducing tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend The SHIBOR rate decreased from 1.7450 on April 29, 2025, to 1.6200 on June 5, 2025, with a bullish outlook [20]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Money Quantity The SHIBOR rate decreased month - on - month, indicating a bullish trend [20]. 3.2.2 Macro - Money Price No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign No specific content provided. 3.2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao were 3,120 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, 734 yuan/ton, 1,340 yuan/ton, and 1,270 yuan/ton respectively. Their one - week, one - month, and one - year price changes varied [28]. 3.2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on June 5, 2025, was 131 yuan/ton, showing certain fluctuations in the recent period [31]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (for Various Steel Products) No specific content provided. 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Futures - Spot) No specific content provided. 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.56% on June 6, 2025, slightly lower than 83.87% on May 30, 2025 [43]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Profits No specific content provided. 3.3.6 Electric Furnace Operation No specific content provided. 3.3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output No specific content provided. 3.3.8 Weekly Steel Output The total output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) on June 6, 2025, was 7.9162 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.024485822 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.001551365 [53]. 3.3.9 Weekly Rebar Output The weekly output of rebar on June 6, 2025, was 218,460 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [78]. 3.3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory The steel mill steel inventory on June 6, 2025, was 5.1777 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.10339752 and a week - on - week increase of 0.009376949 [60]. 3.3.11 Steel Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.13 Rebar Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.14 Building Materials Transactions No specific content provided. 3.3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price No specific content provided. 3.3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area No specific content provided. 3.3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions No specific content provided. 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing demand is weak, and the supply of steel products has decreased slightly. The demand for steel products has declined, and the inventory depletion speed has slowed down. - Due to the rebound of coal - coke futures prices, the center of gravity of finished product prices has moved up. Short - term operations are recommended.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal and coke continues to shrink, with some previously shut - down or reduced - production coal mines not fully restored, and the import situation is not optimistic. Demand is weakening as coke enterprise开工 and steel mill hot - metal production decline. The rebound in prices is driven by short - covering and the approaching traditional peak season for thermal coal demand. The report advises caution on the height of the rebound, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for coking coal and short - term operations for coke [63] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Double - Coking Market Review - No specific review content provided other than the title 2. Coking Coal Fundamental Overview - **Production**: As of this Friday, the operating rate of sample coal - washing plants was 61.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. Some coal mines reduced production due to underground issues or poor sales [18] - **Import**: By the end of April 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 36.327 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.31%. Mongolia's imports declined, while those from Russia, Canada, and the US increased [22] - **Port Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory at six ports was 3.1302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,300 tons [25] - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises was 690,856 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,810 tons. Coke enterprises had insufficient restocking motivation due to increasing losses [30] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 770,910 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,880 tons. Steel mills reduced their raw - material inventory due to blast - furnace production cuts [33] 3. Coke Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: From January to April, the national coke production was 164.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In April, the production was 41.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [37] - **Coke Enterprise Operation**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises was 74.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. Although the operation decreased, the absolute level was still high [41] - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 88,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,080 tons. Due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, inventory continued to accumulate [46] - **Port Inventory**: The total port coke inventory was 214,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,030 tons. Traders' willingness to ship to ports decreased due to falling spot prices [49] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 645,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,130 tons. Steel mills reduced their raw - material inventory due to blast - furnace production cuts [54] - **Demand**: From January to April, the national pig - iron production was 288.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In April, the production was 72.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% [59] 4. Double - Coking Future Outlook - **Coking Coal**: The supply continues to shrink, and the import situation is not good. Demand is weakening as coke enterprise operation and steel mill hot - metal production decline. The price rebound is driven by short - covering and the approaching peak season for thermal coal. The report advises caution on the rebound height and a wait - and - see approach [63] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' losses are increasing, and the operation rate is slightly decreasing. Demand is weakening, but the decline in hot - metal production has narrowed. The coke price is driven up by the coking coal price, and short - term operations are recommended [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) oscillated and then rebounded slightly this week, influenced by external markets. The basis in Xinjiang strengthened, and textile enterprises had small profits, strongly supporting the spot market. However, consumption was weak, with no rush - to - export situation in the downstream. The operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises declined significantly, and the inventory of grey cloth costs continued to rise. The market lacked continuous upward momentum but was supported by low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis, so the downward space was limited. In the short term, Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state [53]. - Internationally, the market generally lacked drivers and maintained an oscillatory trend. As of June 1st, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and lower than the five - year average of 69%. The U.S. cotton planting progress was still behind, but the lag had narrowed. Some cotton had started to bud, and the early excellent - good rate was lower year - on - year. U.S. cotton export data improved, with 316,100 bales shipped in the week ending May 29th, up 15% from the previous week and 1% from the four - week average. Overall, the short - term price space for cotton was limited [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) cotton futures prices oscillated this week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%. ICE cotton futures prices had a slight oscillation, with a weekly increase of 0.38% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price indices showed mixed trends. The 3128 index increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week, while the 2129 index decreased by 17 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In April, 60,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons [17]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In April, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 183,300 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 954,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [26]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In April, the yarn inventory was 20.8 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days. The grey cloth inventory was 30.17 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.34 days [30]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices declined. The price of 10 - count rotor - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn remained unchanged [35]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 229. There were 10,939 warehouse receipts and 369 valid forecasts, totaling 11,308 [39]. 3.1.8 U.S. Cotton Export Situation - As of May 29th, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 109,800 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 39,000 bales [42][47]. 3.1.9 U.S. Weather Situation - Not elaborated in terms of its impact on the market in the provided content, only the data source is given [52]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - The domestic market lacks continuous upward momentum but has limited downward space due to low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis. Short - term Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state. The international market also lacks drivers and maintains an oscillatory trend, with the U.S. cotton planting progress still behind but the lag narrowing and export data improving [53].