1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is currently experiencing significant changes. The main contract is shifting, the basis is strengthening, and the 15 - spread is rapidly converging. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in spot and futures prices, as well as in different regions. In the future, the coastal methanol market is expected to maintain a box - shock trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends**: The main methanol contract MA2601 closed at 2067 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.4% and a reduction of 390,000 lots in positions, leaving 480,000 lots in position. The second - main contract MA2605 closed at 2099 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.2%, an increase of 60,000 lots in positions, and 830,000 lots in position and 750,000 lots in trading volume. The port basis continued to strengthen, and the 15 - spread also converged rapidly [6]. - **Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Production - Sales Area Spreads**: The coastal methanol market declined weakly this week, while the inland market fluctuated narrowly. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2086 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline from the previous week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1984 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous week. Due to the expected climate in the north, freight rates increased, and producers in production areas sold at discounted prices, while some downstream enterprises in sales areas still had the enthusiasm to replenish stocks, and the freight rate increase supported a narrow increase in the transaction price [8]. - **Methanol Foreign Market Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 236 - 244 US dollars/ton, and that for Iranian methanol shipments is - 1 - 0.5%. The cost in US dollars has increased, and buyers are relatively cautious. The methanol markets in Europe and the United States are operating weakly, with the reference price in Europe at 257 euros/ton and that in the United States at 89 - 90 cents/gallon [10]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of December 11, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 76.64%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.53%, a 1.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 0.97 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating loads in the northwest and north China increased this week, leading to a slight increase in the national methanol operating load [14]. - **Methanol Import and Export Volume**: The import arbitrage window is closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remains open [15]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [21]. - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: The international natural gas price has corrected from a high level, and the import cost of natural gas - to - methanol has dropped to 1880 yuan/ton. The price of the domestic thermal coal market continued to decline this week. Most mainstream coal mines in production areas maintained stable production, but downstream demand was not ideal. Power plants mainly replenished stocks through long - term contracts, and pit - mouth prices mostly continued to decline [22][26]. - **Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream industries was 77.6%, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries was 54.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week [28]. - **Methanol Downstream - MTO**: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [38]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Affected by the port policy on the age of imported methanol vessels this week, there was congestion at the port, delaying the actual unloading progress of imported vessels. At the same time, the rigid demand for提货 was stable, and the number of re - export vessels in Taicang increased. The coastal methanol inventory continued to decline significantly, and the decline in spot and near - month contracts was slightly narrower. However, coastal MTO plants have entered maintenance, and imported vessels and floating storage still need to be unloaded and stored in the warehouse one after another. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the coastal methanol market in the later stage, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the coastal methanol market will maintain a box - shock trend next week [41].

2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，成本定价 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年12月14日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The real demand for coking coal and coke is weakening, and coal and coke are under pressure. The supply side has some production limitations, while the import supply of coking coal is loose. The demand side shows a decline in the operating rates of coking enterprises and steel mills, with insufficient inventory - building momentum and weak real demand, so a bearish approach is recommended for operation [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Double - Coking Market Review - No specific review content provided in the given text. 2. Macro and Policy 2.1 Recent Important Information Overview - **Economic Data**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued reduction of major raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in delivery time. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 87.6%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate was 12.4% [13]. - **Policy Information**: In November, the NDRC held a meeting to study the formulation of cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [13]. 3. Fundamental Situation of Coking Coal 3.1 Coking Coal Production - In October, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to September. From January to October, the output was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. As of December 12, the operating rate of 523 sample coal mines was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% [17]. 3.2 Coking Coal Import - In October, China's total coking coal imports were 1.05932 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. From January to October 2025, imports were 9.8869 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.12%. In the fourth quarter, Mongolia is expected to increase coal exports, while imports from Russia, the US, and Australia may change in different directions, and the total imports may slightly decrease [22]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 225,310 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8300 tons. The coking coal inventory of major ports was 307,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons [26]. - **Coking Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of sample coking enterprises was 883,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,900 tons [30]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 794,650 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3620 tons. Steel mills mainly purchased raw materials as needed due to blast furnace production cuts [34]. 4. Fundamental Situation of Coke 4.1 Coke Supply - From January to October, the national coke output was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In October, the output was 41.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% [39]. 4.2 Coking Enterprise Operation - As of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of 230 sample independent coking enterprises was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Although coking enterprises had good profits, the production cuts of downstream steel mills led to a weakening demand for raw materials, resulting in a slight week - on - week decline in the operating rate [43]. 4.3 Inventory - **Coking Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 12, the total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5420 tons. The real demand of downstream was weak, and the inventory of coking enterprises accumulated, with weak market bargaining power [47]. - **Port Inventory**: The total coke inventory of major ports was 181,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, basically unchanged [51]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: As of the end of this week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons. Steel mills mainly purchased as needed, and the in - plant raw material inventory increased slightly [55]. 4.4 Coke Demand - From January to October, the national pig iron output was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. In October, the output was 65.55 million tons, the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 7.9% and 0.8% respectively. From January to October, the national crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In October, the output was 72 million tons, also the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 12.1% and 2.0% respectively. As of the end of this week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 229,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3100 tons, and the real demand for furnace materials was under pressure [59]. 5. Double - Coking Market Outlook - On the supply side, the overall production in the main production areas is normal, but some coal mines have production limitations. This week, the local supply decreased again. The import supply of coking coal is loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of coking enterprises and steel mills decreased simultaneously, and the real demand is weak. The coke inventory of coking enterprises accumulated, and the near - month futures market is under pressure. A bearish approach is recommended for operation [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy in China is taking effect, and prices are showing positive changes. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference may have an impact. In the fundamentals, as the off - season approaches, downstream demand is weakening, and some steel mills are reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and the weekly output of rebar are decreasing. The demand for steel products is under pressure, and both building materials and plates are seeing a decline in consumption. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing due to the rapid decline in supply. The raw material prices are under pressure due to reduced demand from steel mills, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract has shifted to the far - month contract, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [62][63] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a continued decrease in raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in labor demand. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slightly faster delivery time. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase mainly driven by the turnaround of food prices from a decline to an increase. In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the purchase price index decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The month - on - month increase of both was 0.1% [11] - Policy information: In November, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [11] 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific trend content provided Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Monetary Quantity - No relevant content provided 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - No relevant content provided 2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign - No relevant content provided 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industrial Chain - The prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao are presented. For example, the price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) in Shanghai is 3,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.91%, a monthly increase of 1.55%, and an annual decline of 5.76% [25] - The basis data of rebar from November 21 to December 11, 2025, is provided. For example, on December 11, 2025, the futures price was 3069 yuan/ton, the delivery product price was 3230 yuan/ton, and the basis was 161 yuan/ton [27] Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No relevant content provided 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No relevant content provided 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No relevant content provided 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - No relevant content provided 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No relevant content provided 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - No relevant content provided 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - No relevant content provided 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - No relevant content provided 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No relevant content provided Part 4: Future Outlook - The macro - economic situation shows positive price changes. The off - season is coming, with weakening demand and some steel mills reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and rebar is decreasing. The consumption of building materials and plates is declining. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The raw material prices are under pressure, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract is oscillating at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended [62][63]

研究所 铁水持续下行 铁矿压力增大 ----国信期货铁矿石周报 2025年12月14日 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 目 录 CONTENTS 4 后市展望 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 本周铁矿石走势偏弱，仍维持高位震荡走势。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.2 铁矿现货走势 PB粉 781 818 超特粉 670 871 金布巴粉 734 882 巴混 812 835 麦克 771 838 纽曼 778 839 品种 价格 仓单 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 2.2 螺纹与铁矿比价 螺矿比低位小幅走强。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 品类 数值 主力基差 24 01-05 23 p ...

研究所 负反馈压制 热卷延续下行 ----国信期货热卷周报 2025年12月14日 目 录 CONTENTS 4 后市展望 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 热卷主力合约走势 本周热卷主力合约短线震荡，短线延续回落。 1.2 热卷现货走势 现货弱势震荡。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 品类 数值 01基差 7 05基差 -9 10基差 2 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.2 冷热价差 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投 ...

供需双增 猪价延续震荡 研究所 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡略有反弹，因消费季节性走强而供应稳定提升，期货先涨后落，周五又回到周初附近，基差继续偏低位 震荡，LH01较低价交割区仍升水600元左右。基本面来看，从仔猪出生数量来看，一直到明年4月供应都处于稳定增加的趋势 中，继续后期压制猪价的上方空间。短期来看，12月以来规模场出栏增量有限，但散户及二育猪出栏积极性增加，较好的的 匹配了消费的季节性增长。目前二育栏舍利用率继续下降，但读数仍略高于上年同期，同时行业出栏均重刚刚拐头，肥标猪价 差偏弱，行业季节性降均重还会继续推进；而目前离农历过年还较远，拉长了旺季窗口，降低了供应压力集中释放的风险，预 计春节前现货延续偏震荡运行的趋势，但基于仔猪出生数据的推算，春节后淡季压力仍较大。更长期来看，样本数据显示能繁 母猪存栏继续下滑，有利于支撑远端合约的价格重心。操作上，近端震荡对待。远端宽幅震荡思路下把握逢低波段做多的机会 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年12月12日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 。 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育 ...

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Guinea Mining Enterprises' Resumption Brings Cost Reduction Expectations, Alumina Expected to Run at Low Levels; Bullish Sentiment and Fundamental Support Remain, Shanghai Aluminum Expected to Oscillate Strongly - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Aluminum Industry Chain) Weekly Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at low levels due to potential increases in Guinea bauxite supply, but should not be overly bearish considering some domestic enterprises' losses and industry integration possibilities [12][143][148] - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, with upward drivers from bullish sentiment and capital, and fundamental support from demand and inventory trends [13][144][148] - Cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum prices, but its upward potential may be limited by weakening demand expectations and high inventory [14][145][148] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important News**: On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%. A Guinea - based enterprise was allowed to resume operations, and if the Axis mine resumes in December, it will contribute about 40 million tons of supply in 2026 [8] - **Overall Market**: This week, alumina oscillated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [11] - **Outlook**: Alumina may see cost and price support decline due to increased bauxite supply; Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly with bullish sentiment and fundamental support; cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices but with limited upside [12][13][14] 4.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: As of December 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,792.78 yuan/ton, down 17.31 yuan/ton from December 5 [27] - **Supply**: As of December 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.62%, up 0.15% from December 4. In November 2025, China's metallurgical alumina production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [31] - **Import and Export**: On December 10, the average FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from December 4. The import window was open [32] - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,860 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from December 4. The industry loss was about 60 yuan/ton [34] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, alumina port inventory was 130,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, China had a net alumina import [41] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of December 5, coal prices in major producing areas decreased, and Yunnan's hydropower price in December rose to about 0.468 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes remained stable [51][54] - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 11, China's electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,383 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from December 4. The average industry profit narrowed to about 5,300 yuan/ton [57] - **Supply**: In November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. In December, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [60] - **Spot**: As of December 12, the average price of Yangtze River non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 22,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from December 5 [63] - **Demand**: As of December 11, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises was 61.8%, down 0.1% from the previous week. In November, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry rose above the boom - bust line [69] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, aluminum ingot inventory was 584,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from December 4, and aluminum rod inventory was 116,500 tons, down 4,500 tons from December 4. By November, the industry's aluminum - water ratio decreased slightly [72] - **Futures Inventory**: As of December 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 69,160 tons, up 2,327 tons from December 5. From December 5 - 10, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 7,050 tons to 518,750 tons [77] - **Import and Export**: The aluminum ingot import profit window was closed. In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January - October, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [80][84] - **Terminal**: The real estate market is slowly recovering. In early December, automobile consumption data showed weakness [92] 4.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum is affected by aluminum prices and seasonal factors. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to be strong [14] - **ADC12 Cost and Profit**: The cost of ADC12 includes scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper. The industry is currently in a loss state [107] - **ADC12 Spot Price**: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal changes [109] - **Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit**: The price of overseas ADC12 and the import profit situation are presented [112] - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy are analyzed. The supply of aluminum alloy may decrease marginally [118][145] - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy mainly comes from the automobile industry, but the sustainability of orders is uncertain [123][145] - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory - level inventory [132] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy is analyzed [136] 4.5 Future Outlook - **Alumina**: The resumption of Guinea's mining enterprises may increase bauxite supply, but due to enterprise losses and industry integration, it should not be overly bearish. Caution is advised when short - selling [143] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: After the Fed's December interest rate cut, bullish sentiment is strong. With fundamental support, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [144] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow aluminum prices to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited by demand and inventory [145]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. CBOT soybeans oscillated lower this week, while domestic soybean meal oscillated higher. The market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement, trade policies, and South American weather and production expectations. - The oil market is in a range - bound oscillation, with obvious characteristics of a policy - news market. Different factors impact various types of oils, including international market conditions, inventory levels, and policy changes [59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trend - CBOT soybeans oscillated lower this week due to uncertainties in China's demand for US soybeans under the Sino - US trade truce agreement, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and the reduction of soybean export taxes in Argentina. USDA's December report did not adjust the supply - demand of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, and subsequent Chinese purchases slightly alleviated the pessimistic export situation. Domestic soybean meal oscillated higher, with spot and near - month contracts rising, but the main contract M2605 was weak. The market showed a near - strong and far - weak pattern [6]. 1.2 US Market - Soybean Export - As of the week ending November 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 920,194 tons. The total export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 11,867,705 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45.6%. The export reached 26.7% of the annual target, up from 24.6% last week [10]. 1.3 South American Market - Brazil and Argentina - In Brazil, as of December 4, 2025/26, the soybean sowing was 94% complete. AgRural predicted the 2025/26 soybean production at 1.785 billion tons. In Argentina, the soybean export tax will be reduced from 26% to 24%, and the tax on soybean meal and soybean oil will be reduced from 24.5% to 22.5% [27][28]. 1.4 Domestic Situation - China's soybean import and storage situation: Cofco held an import soybean auction on the 11th, with a transaction volume of about 39.7 million tons and a transaction rate of 77.5%. Another import soybean auction of 51.39 million tons is scheduled for December 16. Domestic port soybean inventory is about 841.42 million tons, and the theoretical pressing days are 29 days. The domestic soybean oil mill start - up rate decreased to 57.42%, and the soybean meal inventory decreased to 113.0 million tons [31][38][44]. 2. Oil Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trend - This week, US soybean oil oscillated lower following US soybeans and international crude oil. Malaysian palm oil also showed an oscillating downward trend. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil in Dalian oscillated lower, while rapeseed oil in Zhengzhou first declined and then rebounded. The oil market is in a range - bound oscillation with obvious policy - news characteristics [59]. 2.2 International Oil Information - In Indonesia, the floods in Sumatra are unlikely to significantly affect the 2025 palm oil production. The government fined palm oil and mining companies 23.1 billion US dollars for illegal operations in forest areas. In Malaysia, the palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time this year. From December 1 - 10, the palm oil export volume decreased by 10.3% - 15.0% month - on - month. Germany allowed the use of grains and feed crops as biofuel raw materials, which will support the rapeseed market [62][63][64]. 2.3 Domestic Oil Situation - As of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. The soybean oil inventory was 1.4016 million tons, a decrease of 1.07%; the edible palm oil inventory was 0.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.98%; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.4056 million tons, a decrease of 4.45% [82]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For the main contracts, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are entangled. The short - term indicators of soybean oil are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term and medium - term indicators of palm oil are bearish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled [123]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, is decreasing, and the overall South American high - yield expectation remains. The short - term US soybean market oscillates between South American weather and Chinese purchases. Domestically, the oil mill start - up rate is stable with a slight decline, and the soybean meal inventory removal is slow. The next - week domestic auction volume is over 500,000 tons, and the import soybean clearance progress may affect future supply. - Oil: Internationally, the US soybean oil market is affected by US soybeans, international crude oil, and oil - meal arbitrage, waiting for the US biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is high and exports are weak, and the increase in rainfall next week may affect production. Domestically, the palm oil in Dalian is under pressure from Malaysian palm oil and shows low - level oscillation, while the rapeseed oil shows intensified range - bound oscillation [124].

国际市场承压 郑糖弱势寻底 ——国信期货白糖周报 2025年12月12日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 研究所 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖偏弱运行，周度跌幅0.36%。 ICE期糖低位震荡，周度涨幅0.27%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 20 ...