Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's total sugar production may be adjusted downward due to lower yields and a historically high sugar - to - cane ratio. Asian producers, especially India, have optimistic production estimates. With potential increased sucrose use by Coca - Cola and PepsiCo and procurement demand from countries like Pakistan, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely between 16 - 18 cents per pound [2][20]. - Domestic sugar market: The sales of domestic sugar are progressing ahead of schedule, imports have increased significantly, and processed sugar has been put on the market in large quantities with stable prices. The cost of some previously priced raw sugar is similar to that of domestic sugar, so the market pressure is limited. The domestic market has achieved a relay supply pattern between domestic and processed sugar. The upside of sugar prices later depends on consumption, with an expected operating range of 5700 - 6000 yuan per ton [2][20][22]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou sugar futures trended higher with high basis and a shift from net short to net long positions in the main contracts, supported by fast sales and capital inflows. International sugar prices oscillated at low levels, rebounding after falling below 16 cents per pound but then being pressured by India's abundant supply expectations and dropping again [4]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: In the second half of June, the sugar - to - cane ratio in South Brazil reached a record high of 53.15%, with a cumulative ratio of 51.02%, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year. However, due to weather, the cane crushing volume was low. Considering the relatively low cane yield and sugar content and limited room for further increase in the sugar - to - cane ratio, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production may be reduced [6]. - **India**: Ample rainfall has led to high expectations for a large sugar harvest in the 2025/26 season. The USDA predicts India's sugar production will reach 35 million tons. As of mid - July 2025, India's sugar exports were 65 - 70 million tons, and the ISMA expects 80 million tons by the end of August, with 20 million tons of the quota unexported. The sugar industry requests an extension of the export license to December 31. If the harvest is good, India could export 100 - 150 million tons in the new year [9]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sales progress**: In June, Guangxi sold 495.3 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 77.3 thousand tons year - on - year, with an industrial inventory of 1.3244 million tons, a decrease of 330.8 thousand tons. Yunnan sold 195.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 66 thousand tons, with an industrial inventory of 667.6 thousand tons, an increase of 68.5 thousand tons. Some sugar mills in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the overall sales are ahead. Yunnan's inventory reduction is slower but is expected to improve in July [11][12]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 420 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 390 thousand tons year - on - year, the highest in the past decade. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons year - on - year. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative import was 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 600 thousand tons. Brazil accounted for 76% of raw sugar imports in the first half of 2025, and about one million tons of imported sugar are expected later. In June, the total import of syrups and sugar - containing premixes under certain tax codes was 115.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 103.2 thousand tons year - on - year. The import of 1702 - item syrups is shrinking, but Thai - flavored syrups and premixes show signs of growth [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the number of piglet births, the pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. With the increase in graduation banquets in August and pre - stocking for the start of school in early September, demand will increase significantly in August. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to the policy - guided reduction of the average slaughter weight [1][21] - LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, which has fully priced in the later spot price increase, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the spot market of live pigs declined. The spot price in the benchmark Henan region dropped from the high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to around 14.3 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 1 yuan. Futures performed stronger than the spot, causing the basis to weaken rapidly. The futures price has turned to a premium of nearly 1000 yuan/ton compared to the spot in Sichuan Province. The decline in the live pig market was mainly due to the reduction of supply by large - scale farms at the beginning of the month, followed by the resumption of their supply, increased willingness of small - scale farmers to sell pigs due to hot weather, and weak consumption. The strong performance of futures comes from seasonal expectations and policy expectations [3] 3.2 Live Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Continued Increase in Theoretical Slaughter Volume Indicated by Data of Sows and Piglets - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. As of June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. From the data of reproductive sows, the supply potential of commercial pigs will gradually increase from February to September 2025. The number of piglet births in sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024, indicating that the domestic live pig supply is still guaranteed during the traditional seasonal rise window period from July to September 2025 [4] 3.2.2 Feed Sales Data Confirm the Increase in Live Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales volume of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The year - on - year growth rates of finishing pig feed sales volume from May to June were 17% and 9% respectively, indicating an obvious recovery in the inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs and relatively sufficient slaughter volume in the next 2 - 3 months [8] 3.2.3 Accelerated Slaughter of Heavy - Weight Pigs Later, but Unlikely to Cause Concentrated Selling Pressure - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces reached the peak in May and then declined, with an accelerated decline in June and July, and is currently at the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline is due to the increase in temperature and government policies. Seasonally, the price difference between fat and standard pigs will gradually increase after August, and the demand for fat pigs will increase seasonally. With the current low average weight, there is a large space for the industry to increase the average weight in the later period [10] 3.2.4 Short - Term Demand Boosted by Festivals, but No Highlights in the Medium Term - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and the slaughter gross profit in 2025 has been significantly higher than that in the previous year, indicating better demand this year. The reasons may be the improvement of overall terminal consumption and the reduction of the impact of frozen products. In August, demand will increase significantly due to graduation banquets and pre - stocking for the start of school. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but the impact on price depends on the matching degree of future supply [13] 3.2.5 Feed Cost Reduction Benefits the Industry, Maintaining Profitability - The domestic live pig industry has maintained profitability for nearly 14 months since May 2024. Although the pig price was low in the first half of 2025, the industry still made a profit due to the reduction of feed costs. The price of piglets has been rising since January, and the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will increase significantly. The theoretical cost of fattening pigs from self - bred piglets is concentrated in the range of 13 - 13.5 yuan/kg, while the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg. It is expected that the feed cost is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the decline space of live pig breeding cost is limited [19] 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. The large - scale groups are accelerating the reduction of the average slaughter weight, which may reduce the slaughter pressure in August, but small - scale farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs in stock. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited. LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If the estimated increase in corn production in the US, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina is realized, the global corn market will remain relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to trade at low levels [2][34]. - In China, the area of new - season corn is slightly increasing, and the weather has been generally favorable so far, but there are concerns about drought in some regions. The supply of old - season corn is tight, but there are supplements from wheat and imported corn auctions. The price of domestic corn is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but its medium - term trend will face pressure due to the approaching new - season corn harvest and lower production costs [2][34]. - In terms of operation, the old - season contracts should be treated with a range - bound approach, while a bearish view is recommended for the new - season contracts [2][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Since July, domestic corn futures and spot prices have declined. The start of the auction of imported corn by Sinograin loosened the expectation of a tight supply pattern, leading to a wave of selling by spot grain holders. Later in the month, the market sentiment stabilized, and the spot price showed a certain rebound. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts first declined and then rebounded [4]. 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 Strong Expectation of New - Season Corn Yield Increase in the US - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated that the US corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 95.2 million acres, with a yield per acre of 181 bushels and a total output of 15.705 billion bushels. The year - end carry - over inventory is 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the previous year but lower than last month's estimate. The expansion of the planting area provides a large margin of safety for supply, and the current trend of yield per acre is in a good state, with favorable weather outlook, resulting in significant pressure for a bumper harvest [6]. 2.2 Steady - to - Increasing Future Yields in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's July estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 was 132 million tons, with exports of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 91 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Argentina's output in 2024/25 was 50 million tons, and in 2025/26, it is predicted to be 53 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The predicted output for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly, but this prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [9]. 2.3 Expected Recovery and Increase in New - Season Corn Yield in Ukraine - The USDA estimates that Ukraine's corn output in 2025/26 will be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons (13.8%) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a slight increase in area and recovery of yield per acre. The final year - end carry - over inventory is 60,000 tons, recovering from the previous year. Since June, precipitation in major producing areas has been low, and the NDVI index has been slightly lower, so future weather changes need to be monitored [11]. 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Planting Area and Steady - to - Increasing Production - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates that China's corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), an increase of 132 thousand hectares (1.98 million mu) or 0.3% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), and the total output will be 296.16 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. Overall, domestic corn production is expected to increase slightly. Since sowing, the climate suitability for corn has been generally good, but since July, precipitation has been low in the core producing areas in the Northeast and the Huang - Huai region, and drought pressure has emerged in some areas, so the impact of weather on yield per acre needs to be monitored [16]. 3.2 Decrease in Direct Corn Imports and Sinograin's Imported Corn Auction as an Important Supplement - China's corn imports have remained at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 2024/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.68 million tons, a significant decrease compared to 21.63 million tons in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that imports will increase in the second half of 2025, but the arrival may be after September. Since July 1st, Sinograin has started the auction of reserve imported corn, with a total turnover of less than 1 million tons, and the future supply is uncertain [18][20]. 3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output - In the first half of 2025, the total output of industrial feed in China was 158.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased, while that of concentrated feed decreased. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding scales is expected to support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [23]. 3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - Due to weak macro - economic growth and low consumer confidence, the consumption of downstream products of deep - processing enterprises has been sluggish, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of corn in the deep - processing sector. Since 2024/25, the corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises has decreased by about 4% compared to the previous year. In the corn starch production, which accounts for the largest proportion of corn consumption in the deep - processing sector, the consumption of corn starch has decreased significantly, leading to high inventory, poor processing profit, and low operating rate. It is expected that the deep - processing of corn starch will not improve significantly [24][27]. 3.5 Wheat Still Has an Advantage over Corn, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Auction of Feed Rice - Since March, wheat has shown an advantage in substituting for corn, and feed enterprises in North and Central China have adjusted their formulas. The import of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley has decreased significantly, and it is unlikely to increase suddenly in the future. However, the auction of aged rice is an uncertain factor [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current urea market is in a stage of continuous abundant supply and relatively weak demand. With the support of technological transformation and national supply - guarantee policies, the domestic urea production devices are operating at a high load, with the daily output stabilizing at around 190,000 tons, a five - year peak. Newly added production capacity will keep the supply abundant in the second half of the year. On the demand side, the extended agricultural off - season and slow industrial recovery have led to a dull market. The substantial improvement of demand depends on the start of autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. Policy and coal price factors strengthen the support for urea prices. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound due to demand support, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities based on factors such as autumn fertilizer production, winter storage policies, legal inspection systems, and coal price fluctuations [1][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Market Review - Since the listing of urea futures in 2019, the main contract price has fluctuated between 1,500 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton. From August to December 2019 and throughout 2020, the price was under pressure due to factors such as weakened cost support, production capacity expansion, and tightened export policies. After September 2024, the price dropped to a low - level range again. As of July 21, 2025, the UR2509 contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, still in a low - level oscillation pattern. The current supply - demand situation features high supply, weak domestic demand, marginal export support, and a rebound in coal prices, causing the price to oscillate in the low - level range [3]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The cost of different production processes: the cost of natural - gas - based urea production is 1,965 yuan/ton, the fixed - bed process cost is 1,917 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed process cost is 1,478 yuan/ton. Due to intensified industry competition, the profit margin of urea production has narrowed. The current gross profit of fixed - bed urea production is - 117 yuan/ton, that of entrained - flow bed is 362 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production is - 185 yuan/ton. When the urea price reaches around 1,600 yuan/ton, it will receive cost support [7]. Industrial Structure Analysis Supply Overview - China's urea production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and the total output has been increasing. It is expected that the total urea production capacity will exceed 80 million tons in 2025, with new production capacity from Hubei Sanning Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulan Group, and Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan. In the first half of 2025, China's urea output reached 36.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.18%. The daily output has steadily recovered to a high level, with an average daily output of 200,000 tons, keeping the supply pattern loose [12][18]. Demand Overview - Domestic urea demand is divided into agricultural and industrial demand, with the overall downstream demand being relatively stable. Agricultural demand accounts for about 70%, mainly for major crops such as corn, rice, and wheat. Industrial demand accounts for about 30%, mainly used in areas such as urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, thermal power denitrification, and vehicle urea. The weekly capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and the average operating load rate of the melamine industry have been relatively stable in recent years, indicating stable urea demand [20][21]. Inventory Analysis - With the continuous commissioning of new urea production facilities, the inventory of urea enterprises is at a historically high level, with the latest inventory at 741,000 tons. Under the "orderly export" policy in 2025, the port inventory is 443,000 tons and is slowly rising [24]. Import - Export Analysis - China is the world's largest urea producer, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity. The export volume in 2023 was 4.25 million tons, 260,600 tons in 2024, and 77,200 tons from January to June 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 44.17%. India plans to stop importing urea by the end of 2025. The industry has established an export self - discipline mechanism, emphasizing the "domestic priority" principle. Head - leading enterprises are accelerating overseas production capacity layout to break through export constraints [29][34]. Market Outlook - The supply will remain abundant in the second half of the year, while the demand is in a cyclical trough. The market trading atmosphere is dull, and the substantial improvement of demand depends on autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. The inventory situation is divided, and the enterprise inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, while the port inventory change depends on export policies. Policy and coal price factors strengthen price support. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to oscillate, with strong resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton and potential support around 3,000 yuan/ton. It's advised to take profits on long positions near the resistance level and be cautious about short - selling [143][144][147]. - The Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) is expected to oscillate in the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with the current industrial fundamentals providing support, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [144][147]. - The aluminum alloy price is expected to oscillate under the support of cost and the suppression of weak demand [144][147]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Macro - economic data**: In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.4%), and in June, industrial added value grew 6.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.8%), while retail sales grew 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 6.4%). From January to June, fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year (previous value: 3.7%), real estate investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year (previous value: - 10.7%), and broad infrastructure investment grew 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 10.4%), and manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year (previous value: 8.5%). In the US, overall retail sales in June increased 0.6% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected 0.1% [8]. - **Important news**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises, but these were long - idle mining rights [8]. - **Spot market**: As of July 18, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,185.06 yuan/ton, up 42.67 yuan/ton from July 11. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from July 11 [11]. - **Supply side**: As of July 17, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 80.74%, up 0.82% from the previous week. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [11]. - **Demand side**: As of July 17, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week, driven by a slight rebound in the operating rates of the aluminum profile and aluminum cable sectors [11]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,838 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit expanded to about 337 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,615 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit narrowed to about 3,954 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory side**: As of July 17, the aluminum ingot inventory was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from July 10, with de - stocking during the week after unexpected inventory accumulation on Monday. The aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from July 10. As of July 18, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 66,548 tons, an increase of 14,568 tons from July 11. From July 11 to July 17, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 26,925 tons to 427,200 tons [12]. - **Overall market trend**: This week, alumina oscillated strongly, SHFE Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [15]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: As of July 18, the domestic alumina spot price continued to rise, and the spot was still tight with strong price - holding sentiment in the market [28]. - **Supply**: As of July 17, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 80.74%, up 0.82% from the previous week. There were both production cuts and restarts in the alumina supply side. In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [32]. - **Import and export**: As of July 17, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The import profit window for alumina was gradually opening [34]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,838 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit expanded to about 337 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the alumina port inventory was 21,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In June 2025, China's alumina exports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [43]. - **Futures inventory**: The alumina futures inventory has gradually recovered from a low level but is still at a relatively low historical level [51]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: As of July 18, coal prices in major regions increased, and the single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable during the week [55][58]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,615 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from July 11, mainly due to the increase in alumina prices. The industry average profit narrowed to about 3,954 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply side**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level [64]. - **Spot**: As of July 18, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from July 11 [67]. - **Aluminum price trend and premium/discount**: LME Aluminum oscillated strongly during the week with a spot discount, and the SHFE Aluminum main contract oscillated strongly with a spot discount in the spot market [72][74]. - **Demand side**: As of July 17, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, and the off - season effect of demand deepened [76]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the aluminum ingot inventory was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from July 10, with de - stocking during the week. The aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from July 10. In June, the industry's aluminum - to - liquid ratio was 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [84]. - **Futures inventory**: As of July 18, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 66,548 tons, an increase of 14,568 tons from July 11. From July 11 to July 17, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 26,925 tons to 427,200 tons [87]. - **Import and export**: The import profit window for aluminum ingots was closed. In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [90][93]. - **Terminal demand**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new - energy vehicles is relatively bright. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% [95][98]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight during the off - season, and the price is high. The cost of aluminum alloy has continued to rise, and the loss has expanded [102][104]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by factors such as scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper costs. The spot price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and the overseas ADC12 price and import profit also have corresponding changes [109][111][114]. - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy have their own characteristics. In June, the production of aluminum alloy increased month - on - month [116][117]. - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [120][123]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory inventory, and the current inventory situation has an impact on the market [132]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [137]. 3.5 Future Outlook - **Macro - level**: The "anti - involution" policy continues to affect industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles, and there is also a game space in the market before and after the overseas tariff policy window period. The non - ferrous metal sector led by copper and aluminum still maintains high volatility [142]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to oscillate, with strong resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton and potential support around 3,000 yuan/ton. It's advised to take profits on long positions near the resistance level and be cautious about short - selling [143]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to oscillate in the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with the current industrial fundamentals providing support, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [144]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is expected to oscillate under the support of cost and the suppression of weak demand [144].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Nonferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 20, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The market expects the Fed to adjust its monetary policy in the fall, with the US Treasury Secretary suggesting a September rate cut China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing has also increased steadily after the implementation of consumption - promotion policies Although the PPI decline widened in June, prices in some industries are stabilizing and rebounding [36] - Shanghai nickel showed a volatile trend this week. Refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated. Nickel sulfate prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak volatile state, with slow inventory reduction. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract of stainless steel will operate in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The report may have presented the trends of domestic and foreign main price contracts of nickel futures, but specific text descriptions are not provided, only a price chart from 2020/12/31 to 2025/06/30 is shown [7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: A chart of China's nickel ore port inventory and the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines is presented, but no specific text analysis is given [12][13] - **Mid - stream**: Charts of electrolytic nickel prices, nickel sulfate prices, monthly import volume of ferronickel, and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, but no specific text analysis is given [15][16][17][18][19][20] - **Downstream**: Charts of stainless steel prices, stainless steel futures positions, Wuxi stainless steel inventory, power and energy storage battery production, and new energy vehicle production are presented, but no specific text analysis is given [21][22][23][24][25][26][28][29][30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions in July and September are given, with a high probability of maintaining the rate in July and a high probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut in September China's manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs are rising, while the PPI decline widened in June but some industries' prices are stabilizing [36] - Shanghai nickel is in a volatile trend. Refined nickel has a supply surplus, nickel ore supply is loose, nickel sulfate prices are weak, and stainless steel is in a weak volatile state. The expected operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and stainless steel main contracts are provided [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the protein meal market, international soybean prices rebounded after a decline this week. Domestic soybean meal followed the upward trend of US soybeans, showing a strong and volatile pattern. In the short - term, domestic soybean meal is expected to continue its strong and volatile performance, with the M2509 contract facing resistance at the previous high of 3089. - In the oil market, international oils rose significantly this week. Domestic oils followed the international trend, with palm oil leading the increase. In the future, international palm oil may continue to rise if Indonesian production is lower than expected, and US soybean oil remains bullish. Domestic oils are likely to have a rotation effect, and there may be a catch - up increase in soybean oil and rapeseed oil [65][131]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Review - This week, CBOT soybeans first declined and then rebounded. USDA report was bearish at the beginning, but later factors such as higher - than - expected June crushing data, increased exports, and rising soybean oil prices drove the rebound. Domestic soybean meal fluctuated upwards, with the main contract breaking through key integer levels [6]. 2. US Market Information - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. From 2024/25 to date, the total US soybean export inspection volume reached 46,411,264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. As of July 13, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected, with a flowering rate of 47% and a pod - setting rate of 15% [10][18]. 3. North American Weather - In the US, some areas in Texas had continuous heavy rain, while the western part was dry. In Canada, the prairie region was affected by drought, which had an impact on crop growth [22][29]. 4. Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - US soybean crushing capacity has increased, but the oversupply of soybean meal restricts full utilization. In June 2025, China imported 12.26 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 10.35%. Brazil was the main supplier. Various institutions adjusted their forecasts for global soybean production, consumption, and trade [31]. 5. Global Trade Pattern Changes - The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, including Indonesia's purchase of US agricultural products, energy products, and aircraft, which may affect the global trade pattern [36]. 6. Domestic Market Indicators - Domestic spot and futures crushing margins improved. As of the end of the week, port soybean inventory was about 6.5215 million tons, and the theoretical crushable days were 19 days. The soybean oil mill opening rate was high, and the soybean meal inventory increased [42][48]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Market Review - International oils rose significantly this week. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil reached new highs. Domestic oils followed the international trend, with palm oil leading the increase [65]. 2. International Oil Information - In June, India's palm oil imports reached an 11 - month high. In June 2025, China imported 696,000 tons of edible vegetable oils, a month - on - month increase of 50.65%. From July 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased. US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was lower than expected. Malaysia raised the export tax rate for August palm oil. Indonesia's biodiesel policy had a positive impact on the market [69][70]. 3. Southeast Asian Weather - Thailand and surrounding areas had seasonal monsoon rainfall, and Malaysia and Indonesia also had beneficial rainfall [77]. 4. Domestic Market Indicators - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased. The inventory of soybean oil increased, palm oil increased slightly, and rapeseed oil decreased [87]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal index charts of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils were provided, but no specific analysis content was given. 2. Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, different short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators showed different trends [130]. - **Fundamentals** - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybeans may be affected by weather and tariff policies, and are expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1100. Domestically, soybean meal inventory is increasing, and short - term soybean meal is expected to be strong and volatile. - **Oils**: Internationally, Malaysian palm oil may continue to rise if Indonesian production is lower than expected, and US soybean oil remains bullish. Domestically, oils follow the international trend, and there may be a catch - up increase in soybean oil and rapeseed oil [131].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Zheng Sugar Maintains Fluctuations with Limited Upside and Downside Space - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 20, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Zheng sugar market has reduced volatility but a slightly upward - shifted center. In the short term, the upside is limited due to sufficient supply, while the downside has cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate around 5,800 yuan/ton. The international raw sugar market has rebounded from the bottom. Although there are short - term positive factors, the upside is suppressed by supply expectations. The recommended operation is short - term trading [57][58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zheng sugar had a bullish weekly fluctuation with a 0.28% weekly increase. ICE sugar had a slight rebound with a 1.15% weekly increase [7]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not elaborated in the provided content. 3.1.3 National Production and Sales Situation - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In June, 420,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 390,000 tons compared to the same period last year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4,580 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,822 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared to the same period last year [26]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 21,857, a decrease of 1,183 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 21,857, and the valid forecast was 0 [34]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 206 million tons, a 14.06% year - on - year decrease, and the sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a 14.25% year - on - year decrease [38]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.02%, compared to 48.69% in the same period last year [40]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In June, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.359 million tons, a 5.24% increase compared to the same period last year [45]. 3.1.10 International Main Production Area Weather Conditions - There was almost no rainfall in Brazil's main production areas, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [54]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Zheng sugar's volatility has decreased, and the center has slightly moved up. After the release of import data, the expectation of a large amount of imports arriving at ports has gradually been realized. The processing sugar mainly supplements the market, and the focus is on consumption. In the short term, the sugar price has limited upside and cost - supported downside, and is expected to fluctuate around 5,800 yuan/ton [57]. 3.2.2 International Market - Raw sugar has rebounded from the bottom. Abundant rainfall in Asia is beneficial for sugarcane growth, and the lower - than - expected production in southern Brazil in the second half of June has boosted the international sugar market. However, the upside is suppressed by supply expectations [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market has a weak fundamental situation, which may restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to approach it with an interval - oscillation mindset [35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, rebounded from a low level [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 17, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,835 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from last week, with the increase rate expanding by 0.14 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,013 yuan/ton, down 1.99% from last week, with the decline rate expanding by 1.21 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,777 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase [12] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to June**: In June 2025, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.9079 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 629.46 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to June increased by 4.2% and 2.3% respectively compared with the same period last year [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1621 million tons, down 1.08% from last week, turning from an increase to a decline [20] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The inventory in UK and Spanish ports decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% respectively month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% respectively month - on - month [23] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of July 17, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat compared with last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 1.41 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 2.31 percentage points; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 2.73 percentage points [28] 3. Future Outlook - The weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports decreased by 1.41% from last week, turning from an increase to a decline. Affected by the off - season atmosphere of traditional industries, terminal orders are insufficient, and the downstream base paper industry still faces shipment pressure and has low enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials. The pulp port inventory remains at a high level in recent years, and the overall de - stocking rhythm is slow. The lower - end cost also provides some support, and industry players are reluctant to sell at low prices. The overall market rebound is restricted by the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation approach [35]

Report Title - "Fund Game Escalates, Zhengzhou Cotton Accelerates Upward - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through and rose this week. Without additional quotas or state reserve sales, the supply shortage intensified as the basis continued to rise. With rising cotton prices, yarn quotes also increased significantly. Short - term supply shortage is difficult to resolve without external supply increase, and price rise is a reasonable outcome. The upward trend depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation, and a significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - Internationally, the US initiated a new round of tariff hikes, and negotiations are ongoing. US cotton weekly export data remained weak, with this - year's signing declining seasonally and next - year's signing lackluster. US main growing areas, especially Texas, saw a drop in the drought index and a continuous rise in the good - to - excellent rate. US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose strongly this week, with a weekly increase of 2.77%. ICE cotton futures were strong, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 255 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index increased by 242 yuan/ton [14]. Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17]. Inventory Situation - In June, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 443,700 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 903,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,500 tons [25]. Downstream Inventory - In June, the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.71 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.61 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.58 days [30]. Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S increased by 160 yuan/ton, C32S by 240 yuan/ton, and JC40S by 280 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 276. There were 9,585 warehouse receipts and 223 valid forecasts, totaling 9,808 [38]. US Cotton Export - As of July 10, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 5,500 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 73,000 bales [41]. Market Outlook - Domestic: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation. A significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - International: US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term trading is recommended [52]