Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices face significant upside pressure, but the downside space below 15 cents per pound is expected to be limited unless new negative factors emerge. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain weak in the short term with limited fluctuation space, as it lacks pricing power and mainly follows the trend of the international market [2][20]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In October, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. After falling below the support level of around 5,400 yuan per ton under the drag of the international market, they recovered and returned above 5,400 yuan per ton. International sugar prices continued to decline in October, reaching a minimum of 15.03 cents per pound, due to the optimistic output prospects of major sugar - producing countries [5]. 2. International Market Analysis 2.1 Brazil - Brazil's recent bi - weekly production data is strong. As of October 1, 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region was 33.524 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.08%. The bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has significantly decreased. The sugar - making ratio in the second half of September was 51.17%, compared with 53.49% in the first half of September. The average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region this season decreased by 6.5% compared with the previous season, but the recent yield data has improved. As long as Brazil's annual estimated sugar production does not exceed 42 million tons, it is difficult to trigger a new round of price decline [7]. 2.2 India - There are significant differences in India's new - year sugar production estimates. The Indian government is optimistic about sugar production due to sufficient early rainfall, and reservoir storage has increased significantly. However, heavy rain at the end of the monsoon in Maharashtra damaged nearly 2.83 million hectares of crops, and the sugarcane yield per hectare in this state has been revised down. The Indian government has estimated the new - year sugar production to be 34 million tons, and the industry generally expects 1 - 2 million tons of exports in the new season. Before the production data is clear, India is unlikely to export, so the short - term supply pressure from India is not large [11][12]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis 3.1 Production - Domestic beet sugar production has fully started, with the estimated output slightly lower than before. The sugar content in Inner Mongolia is higher than the same period last year, and 13 out of 14 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started production. The sugarcane - producing areas in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan have been affected by typhoons, which may lead to a decline in sugarcane yield and sugar content [14]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - The supply of refined sugar remains abundant, and the prices of refined sugar mills have been continuously lowered. In September, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons. The extrusion effect of refined sugar on domestic sugar sales is obvious, and the commercial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan in September increased year - on - year, resulting in significant pressure on spot prices [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In November 2025, iron ore demand is expected to decline, but the decline may not be significant. The supply side is likely to follow the demand and experience a slight decline. Steel demand has some resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be a short - term behavior. With the market starting to focus on steel mills' restocking expectations for iron ore in November, there is support at the lower end of iron ore prices. Therefore, iron ore prices may show a trend of bottom - finding and then rebounding in November [3][24][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In October 2025, iron ore prices fluctuated and declined but remained in the high - level oscillation range since July. Before the National Day, steel prices started to decline. Steel demand was weak, while production was high. Market funds mainly aimed to short steel mill profits, and iron ore prices were relatively strong. Driven by policies, there is an expectation of a decline in steel mill supply in the far - month, and steel spot profits are constantly compressed. The market anticipates steel mill production cuts, causing raw material prices to fluctuate under the pressure of negative feedback expectations. High steel production drives strong iron ore demand, with active iron ore shipments. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand and is affected by steel inventory accumulation, resulting in high - level oscillations [3][5][25]. Supply - Iron ore supply was at a relatively high level in October. In August, monthly iron ore imports reached 105.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. Low - cost iron ore from Simandou is expected to start increasing production at the end of 2025, with an annual production capacity gradually rising by 30 million tons, having little impact on 2025 supply but increasing long - term supply expectations. High - cost iron ore supply decreased significantly throughout the year, but it can be quickly released if future demand is strong. High - frequency data shows that iron ore supply increased significantly in October but not year - on - year. Facing the seasonal off - season, high - level iron ore supply may decline with the decrease in hot metal production. If supply remains strong, it will put pressure on iron ore prices [3][8][25]. Demand - In October, hot metal production oscillated at a high level, remaining above 2.4 million tons per day, stronger than expected. As steel is at the end of the seasonal peak season, rebar production capacity has declined, but plate supply is at a high level, supporting hot metal production. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand, and prices are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to whether the weak steel demand can be transmitted to the iron ore market. High hot metal production has led to continuous inventory depletion, and port inventory has been decreasing. The inventory depletion in July was mainly due to strong demand. Before July, the market was pessimistic about iron ore, and strong demand was not reflected. As market sentiment improved, iron ore prices rebounded to correct the pessimistic expectations [3][16][26]. Terminal Demand - Real estate demand continues to decline. In August, real estate data showed that the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area was 20%, and real estate sales were also lackluster. Building material demand is expected to remain weak, dragging down overall demand. Despite continuous policy mentions of stabilizing economic development, real estate and traditional infrastructure are unlikely to regain strength. After the implementation of the anti - involution policy, steel production has remained high. Although rebar production shows signs of reduction, plate production is still high, and steel inventory pressure is significant. It is expected that steel production capacity will gradually decline, putting pressure on iron ore demand [19][21]. Summary and Outlook - The situation in October and the analysis of supply, demand, and terminal demand are similar to the above - mentioned content. Overall, in November, iron ore demand is expected to decline slightly, and supply may also decline slightly. Steel demand has resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be short - term. With the market's focus on restocking expectations, iron ore prices may bottom out and then rebound [3][24][26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the corn industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, after the production increase in South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, the production estimates of the Northern Hemisphere countries like the US and Ukraine have increased again. The global corn market remains relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to run at a low level [1][30]. - Domestically, the new - season corn production is generally expected to increase, and the cost has decreased. The market anticipates significant listing pressure later, so grain - purchasing entities are relatively cautious in procurement. Although the price difference between wheat and corn has been repaired recently, and feed enterprises may adjust the corn usage ratio back, the motivation to significantly increase inventory is limited due to the low profits in the breeding industry and the policy - guided capacity reduction. In the deep - processing sector, although the processing profits of some local enterprises have been repaired, the high finished - product inventory restricts the initiative to significantly increase inventory. The current visible inventory at the north - south ports is low, with some restocking space later. According to the general seasonal pattern, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China will accelerate in November, increasing market pressure, and domestic corn may show a weak and volatile pattern [1][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since October, the domestic spot price of corn has dropped significantly. In North China, due to long - term rainfall during the harvest period, the corn moisture content is high, and the storage is difficult.潮粮 is mainly sold to the deep - processing sector, and enterprises have taken the opportunity to lower prices. In Northeast China, the harvest season has arrived, with a strong production increase expectation and reduced planting costs, and the grass - roots have a good attitude towards selling grain. On the demand side, the breeding profit has continued to deteriorate, the feed demand expectation has worsened, and the deep - processing operation rate is low, providing insufficient support for corn. The futures price has dropped but performed better than the spot price overall. After mid - October, it rebounded with the support of the State Reserve's grain purchase. The basis of the northern port corn to C2511 has decreased from a high level and returned to the normal range [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis - **US New - Season Corn Supply and Demand are Loose**: According to the USDA's September supply - demand report, the 2025/26 US corn harvest area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.72 tons per hectare, and the total output is 427 million tons. The feed consumption is 155 million tons, the food and processing demand is 177 million tons, the export is 75.57 million tons, and the year - end carry - over inventory is 536 million tons. Although the total supply has increased, the carry - over inventory has decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 13.14%, still the highest since 2020/2021 [5]. - **The Production of Brazil and Argentina is Expected to Remain at a High Level**: According to the USDA's September estimate, the 2024/25 Brazilian corn output is 135 million tons, with an export of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 93 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. The CONAB's latest estimate shows that the 2025/26 Brazilian corn output is expected to reach 138 million tons, about 3 million tons less than the previous year. In Argentina, the 2024/25 output is estimated at 50 million tons, with a slight decrease in export and a slight increase in consumption, and a small increase in inventory. The 2025/26 output is predicted to be 53 million tons, with an export of 37 million tons and a carry - over inventory of 3.18 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The 2025/26 output is currently predicted to be generally stable, but the prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [8]. - **The New - Season Corn Output in Ukraine is Expected to Increase Recoveringly**: According to the USDA's estimate, the 2025/26 Ukrainian corn output is expected to be 32 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons or 19.4% compared to the previous year. The increase is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield per unit. The final end - of - period carry - over inventory is 1.14 million tons, recovering compared to the previous year. The growth situation of Ukrainian corn is good, and the prospect of production increase is clear [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis - **The New - Season Output is Expected to Increase, with High Listing Pressure**: According to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the 2025/26 national corn output is expected to reach 296 million tons, an increase of more than 1 million tons compared to the previous year, mainly due to the increase in yield per unit. Folk surveys also tend to predict an increase in production, with some estimating an increase of 10 million tons by the end of the year. Overall, due to good lighting conditions, the expectation of a full - year production increase is basically undisputed. In North China, the corn quality is poor due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period, while in Northeast China, the weather has been good, and the grain quality has been significantly improved. At the beginning of the new - season corn listing in 2025, the sales progress in many places in Northeast China was faster than the same period of the previous year. However, considering that the peak listing period of new - season corn in Northeast China is usually after "freezing" and there is a bumper harvest this year, the impact of the autumn grain listing in the north may have just begun. The purchase prices of the State Reserve are generally slightly lower than last year, matching the cost decrease. Currently, both the State Reserve and downstream grain - using enterprises have a cautious purchasing attitude [13]. - **The Price Difference between Wheat and Corn has Increased, and the Corn Usage Ratio has Rebounded**: Since October, the wheat price has risen slightly, while the North China corn price has been suppressed by the new - season listing. The price difference between wheat and corn has increased rapidly, and wheat has lost its substitution advantage over corn considering the protein difference. From the statistics of the Feed Industry Association, the corn addition ratio in compound feed has stabilized in August and rebounded in September. If the price difference remains in the later period, the feed industry may gradually adjust back the corn usage ratio. However, the lack of confidence in future feed consumption growth in the industry restricts the feed enterprises' inventory - building enthusiasm. The pig and egg - laying industries are in a loss state, and the expectation of capacity reduction restricts the feed enterprises' initiative to build inventory [15][18]. - **The Raw Material Cost has Decreased, and the Deep - Processing Profit has Improved**: In October, the starch processing profit has seasonally rebounded due to the decrease in raw material cost caused by the new - season corn listing. However, the current processing profit is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period, limiting the increase in the operation rate. The processing profit of alcohol enterprises has also been significantly repaired in October, mainly in Henan Province. The profit increase in Henan is due to the high moisture content and poor quality of new - season corn caused by continuous rainfall, which can only be used for alcohol production. The raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has rapidly rebounded in October, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that enterprises lack the initiative to significantly increase inventory [20][22]. - **The Inventory in the Circulation Link is Still Low but will Increase Seasonally Later**: The inventory at the northern ports has slightly rebounded to 1 million tons, with a significant increase in the arrival and shipment volume. As the new - season corn harvest in Northeast China progresses, the port inventory will increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period, mainly due to the large arrival of imported barley. For corn, the domestic - trade corn inventory remains low, while the foreign - trade corn inventory has increased significantly due to the increase in arrival [24].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the calculation of piglet birth numbers, the current period to March next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally maintain an increasing pattern in the later period. - The cross - verification of feed production and sales shows that the month - on - month growth rate of fattening feed sales in August and September is good, indicating that the inventory of social pig sources is gradually increasing. - From the perspective of the slaughter rhythm, since September, the average slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, while that of small - scale farmers has decreased, but both are higher year - on - year, reflecting that the live inventory is still high. - From the demand side, November to January is the traditional consumption peak season. However, under the situation of insufficient overall consumption confidence, the peak season may not have an unexpected performance, and the final impact on prices still depends on the matching degree of future supply. - Since October, with the increase in the price difference between fat and standard pigs, secondary fattening has increased again. Without effective reduction of the overall live inventory, secondary fattening will increase the supply before the peak season and suppress the performance space of the peak season. - Currently, the futures price is at a premium, which has priced in the peak - season expectation to some extent. In the short term, attention should be paid to the duration of secondary fattening; in the medium term, the time point of reducing live inventory; in the long term, the industry's capacity reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. - In terms of operation, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for contracts LH2601 and LH2603. Treat the far - month contract LH2609 as a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying [1][23]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review - Since October, the spot market of live pigs has declined significantly. The spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, has approached the 11 - yuan mark, and that in Guangxi has even fallen below 10 yuan. After the National Day holiday, the futures price of live pigs dropped sharply and then rebounded in shock in late October. - The consumption boost during the holiday was ineffective, and large - scale farms accelerated the slaughter rhythm, leading to a sharp decline in the spot price. As the pig price fell, some farmers began to hold back sales, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, indicating a shortage of large pigs in the market and a weakening of the short - term selling impact. - In late October, the large - scale cooling in high - temperature areas in the South was beneficial to consumption. In addition, traditionally, the consumption volume increases significantly month - on - month starting from November. Driven by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the high price difference between fat and standard pigs, the active entry of secondary fattening was the main driving force for the rebound of the pig price in late October [3]. b. Supply and Demand Analysis of Live Pigs - **High Supply of Fattened Pigs in the Later Period Shown by Piglet Data**: The national inventory of breeding sows reached a peak of 40.8 million in November 2024 and then fluctuated downward. By the end of September, it was 40.35 million, a reduction of 1.1% from the peak. In October, due to the decline in pig prices, the slaughter volume of culled sows increased in some areas. The piglet birth numbers from various institutions show that the slaughter pressure will gradually increase until November 2025 and will not significantly decrease until March 2026 [5]. - **Increase in Social Pig Sources Confirmed by Feed Sales**: From June to September 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed generally increased steadily. The month - on - month growth rate of fattening pig feed sales in August and September 2025 was still high, indicating an overall increase in the inventory of social pig sources, but the marginal increase may be slightly lower than last year [8]. - **Rise in Secondary Fattening with High Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: The average slaughter weight of small - scale farmers' pigs peaked and declined in September but was still at a high level year - on - year. The average weight of large - scale farms' pigs bottomed out and rebounded in early September, with a small increase overall and also an increase year - on - year. The price difference between fat and standard pigs further soared in September, indicating a tightening supply of fat pigs after the slaughter of large pigs by small - scale farmers. Since August, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a relatively low level but rebounded in October due to the high price difference between fat and standard pigs and the low absolute price [10][12]. - **Significant Increase in Slaughter Volume but Limited Demand**: According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting an increase in domestic pig supply. The fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses has decreased, and the utilization rate of frozen - product storage capacity has continuously increased, reflecting the sluggish terminal consumption and the inability to effectively absorb the increased supply. November and December are traditional consumption peak seasons, with a month - on - month increase of 10% in daily consumption in November and over 15% in December. The strengthening of later - stage consumption may provide some support for the spot price, but the market trend still depends on the comprehensive comparison of supply and demand forces [14]. - **Industry in Loss and Limited Space for Cost Reduction**: Since the second half of September 2025, the pig price has weakened rapidly, and the pig - farming profit has also deteriorated significantly. As the national average price fell below 12 yuan, the profit of the self - breeding and self - fattening model has entered the loss range. Recently, the price of piglets has fallen, and the expected slaughter cost of fattened pigs from purchased piglets has also dropped rapidly. The feed cost has limited room for further decline, and the low pig price will continue to squeeze profits and may gradually stimulate the industry's capacity reduction [20]. c. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The current period to March next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally maintain an increasing pattern. - The cross - verification of feed production and sales shows an increase in the inventory of social pig sources. - The live inventory is still high. The peak season may not have an unexpected performance, and secondary fattening will suppress the performance space of the peak season. - In the short term, pay attention to the duration of secondary fattening; in the medium term, focus on the time point of reducing live inventory; in the long term, watch the industry's capacity reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. - Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for contracts LH2601 and LH2603. Treat the far - month contract LH2609 as a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fluctuated downward. Although HRC demand was resilient, building material demand was weak. High supply levels led to significant inventory pressure, and market funds mainly aimed to short steel mill profits. In November, building material demand is expected to remain sluggish, while plate demand has some resilience but limited growth. Exports will still be the main driver of total demand. High inventory requires production cuts, which will weaken cost support for steel and lead to potentially weak prices [3][24][26]. 3) Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Since October, HRC has been on a downward trend. Despite HRC demand showing some resilience, building material demand was weak. Before the National Day holiday, steel prices started to decline due to weak demand and high production. Market funds mainly focused on shorting steel mill profits. After the holiday, as steel apparent demand further declined, even if steel mills reduced production, price support was insufficient, and the market continued to fall [3][5][25]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In October, HRC supply remained at a relatively high level, with weekly production between 3.2 million - 3.3 million tons, at a high level compared to previous years. Supply of cold-rolled coils, medium and heavy plates, and other plate products was also at a high level. High supply led to significant inventory pressure despite relatively strong HRC demand [3][11][25]. - **Inventory**: In October, HRC inventory continued to rise from around 3.8 million tons to 4.18 million tons. Weak demand and high supply contributed to the increase in inventory. High production suppressed steel prices, but strong raw material demand delayed the expected negative feedback, and raw material prices provided some support to steel prices. Once steel production is cut, cost support will weaken [15][18][25]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand for plates in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships continued to strengthen, driving plate demand. In September 2025, the production of home appliances and automobiles showed growth, supporting HRC demand. However, in September, domestic real estate, infrastructure, and fixed - asset investment declined year - on - year, dragging down steel demand. Although plate demand continued to strengthen, the overall steel demand declined. Steel exports increased year - on - year, supporting total demand. In November, building material demand is expected to remain weak, plate demand has some resilience but limited growth, and exports will still be the main driver of total demand [19][21][24]. Summary and Outlook - In October, HRC prices were weak due to weak building material demand, high production, and inventory pressure. Although raw material prices provided some support, once production is cut, cost support will weaken. In November, building material demand is unlikely to improve, plate demand has limited growth, and high inventory requires production cuts, which will lead to potentially weak steel prices [25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, with the current low - level increasing positions and rising. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. It is recommended to consider lightly testing long positions at low prices [3][29]. - In October, the demand side of the pulp market shows a slight recovery, but the high - price transactions are difficult to increase due to the general purchasing enthusiasm of downstream paper mills and sufficient domestic pulp supply. The supply and demand are in continuous game [2][3][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, pulp futures hit the bottom and rebounded. The main contract completed the shift of positions, and the position gradually moved to the SP2601 contract. After hitting a low of 5042 yuan/ton on October 13, it rebounded. The profit improvement of downstream paper enterprises was poor, and the purchasing enthusiasm was insufficient, which dragged down the pulp futures market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in October, the new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises will continue to be released, and the demand side has a slight recovery [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume in September**: In September 2025, China imported 2.952 million tons of pulp. From January to September, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 5.6% and - 0.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of coniferous pulp in September was 690,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.52% and a year - on - year increase of 11.32%. The import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.3559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.40%. Affected by geopolitics, the import volume from North America decreased, but the import volume from Brazil, Chile, Finland and Uruguay increased. The total import volume of pulp in China is at a relatively high level in history [1][12][28]. - **October Foreign Market Quotations**: Chile's Arauco Company's new round of October wood pulp foreign market quotations showed that the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 US dollars/ton, 20 US dollars/ton lower than that in September; the price of natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, the same as that in September; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 540 US dollars/ton, the same as that in September. The general purchasing enthusiasm of downstream paper mills and sufficient domestic pulp supply dragged down the actual transaction price of broad - leaf pulp. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp remained high, and traders had a certain price - holding sentiment. The estimated gross profit margin of Silver Star spot was - 5.20%, up 0.16 percentage points from the previous week before the festival, and down 5.75 percentage points from the same period last year [16]. - **Profit of Downstream Paper Enterprises**: As of October 16, the weekly operating load rate of double - copper paper was 63.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points; that of double - offset paper was 48.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 0.05 percentage points, and the output increased by 0.09%; that of tissue paper increased by 1.15 percentage points, and the output increased by 1.65%. The operating load rate of downstream paper enterprises showed a differentiated trend. The overall operating level of double - copper paper and double - offset paper was low, while that of tissue paper and white cardboard increased. The demand side showed a slight recovery in October, but the pulp market continued the dynamic game [21][22][29]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 16, 2025, the total weekly inventory of pulp in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port and Nansha Port was 1.9342 million tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. In August 2025, the total inventory of European ports increased by 7.61% month - on - month and 9.76% year - on - year, and the inventory of most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [2][22][29]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The supply side shows that China's total pulp import volume is at a relatively high level in history. The demand side has a slight recovery in October, but the high - price transactions are difficult to increase. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp remains high, and the supply and demand are in continuous game. The pulp futures market is currently increasing positions and rising at a low level, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. It is recommended to consider lightly testing long positions at low prices [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November 2025, alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with a bottom - support around 2700 yuan/ton and an upper - pressure around 3000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is bearish, but cost support and potential supply disruptions limit the downside. [3][90] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to show a moderately strong oscillating trend, with an upper - pressure in the range of 21500 - 22000 yuan/ton and a solid support around 20500 yuan/ton. [4] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 19000 - 21500 yuan/ton, driven by the mid - term strong expectation of aluminum prices, cost support, and policy factors. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Alumina**: Since October, alumina futures prices have shown a trend of bottom - probing and then rebounding slightly. Supply surplus persists, and prices once hit a low of 2773 yuan/ton. By October 24, the main contract 2601 closed at 2810 yuan/ton, down 2.02% from September 30. [8][9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level and gradually stabilized above 21000 yuan/ton. By October 24, the main contract 2512 closed at 21225 yuan/ton, up 2.64% from September 30. The outer - market aluminum price also reached a new high since May 2022. [11][14][17] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures price followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum futures, showing a pattern of rising, then falling back, and finally oscillating. By October 24, the main contract AD2512 closed at 20705 yuan/ton, up 2.45% from September 30. [18][22] 3.2 Macroeconomic Hotspots Tracking - **Market Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts**: The market strongly expects the Fed to cut rates twice within the year, but there are still differences within the Fed. Powell's speech strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in October. [23] - **Sino - US Trade Friction**: In October, Sino - US trade friction intensified, causing a decline in the prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. Subsequently, Trump's attitude changed, and the impact of tariff policies on aluminum prices may shift to indirect transmission paths. [26][27] - **Domestic Macroeconomic Data and Events**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In addition, relevant policies such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" are expected to bring benefits to the aluminum industry. [28][33][38] 3.3 Aluminum Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Alumina - **Bauxite Supply**: In September 2025, China's domestic bauxite production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Imported bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From September to October, the shipment volume of Guinean bauxite gradually recovered. The overall bauxite inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but factors such as Guinea's elections and mine incidents remain uncertain. [39][40][50] - **Cost Analysis**: In October, the average cost of alumina decreased, mainly due to the decline in bauxite prices. The cost of caustic soda used in alumina also decreased, while the energy cost increased slightly. In November, the change in alumina production cost is expected to be limited, and the industry's profitability is difficult to recover. [52][60][62] - **Capacity and Production**: In October, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina decreased, and it is expected that the production in October will decrease compared with September. Overseas, the alumina import window has been open since September, and the import volume is expected to increase. [63][64][70] - **Inventory and Price**: Since October, alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot price has been falling. The overall supply - demand balance of alumina has been in a state of surplus for four consecutive months, and it is expected to remain so in October. [76][77][84] - **Conclusion**: In November 2025, alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to adopt an oscillating trading strategy while guarding against risks from sudden supply disruptions. [89][90] 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: In October, the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the industry profit continued to expand. In November, the cost is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize, and the industry will maintain strong profitability. [92][97][99] - **Supply Situation**: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the production in September increased year - on - year. Overseas, Century Aluminum's Icelandic plant had a production reduction. In September, the import and export volume of primary aluminum both increased year - on - year. [100][102][103] - **Inventory Changes**: In October, aluminum ingot inventory first increased and then decreased, entering the seasonal destocking stage. The inventory of aluminum rods also showed a downward trend. Exchange inventories showed different trends, with the SHFE inventory increasing and the LME inventory decreasing. [110][112][120] - **Demand Analysis**: In October, the peak season for downstream aluminum demand continued, but there is a risk of transitioning to the off - season. Different terminal industries have different impacts on aluminum demand. In November, the overall demand will be supported by the home appliance, automobile, and power grid sectors, but there are also uncertainties. [123][160] - **Export Situation**: In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, and the export volume of aluminum profiles also decreased. The recovery of export demand requires time. [161]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline in the future. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - **Iron Ore Main Contract and Spot Trends**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The prices of various iron ore spot products have changed. For example, the price of PB powder has dropped from 821 to 784, and the price of Super Special powder has dropped from 917 to 712 [9][12]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The main contract basis is 3.5, the 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, the pb - super special spread is 75, and the Brazilian coarse - pb spread is 6 [18]. - **Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore continues to be weak [21]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Iron Ore Supply**: This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1950.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 60.66%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year [24]. - **International Ocean Freight**: The freight rate of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.46 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.73 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2046 [27]. - **Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: The port inventory is 14278.27 tons, the Australian ore inventory is 5869.73 tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 5684 tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and the trade ore inventory is 9208.11 tons [30]. - **Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the iron ore port inventory is 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory is 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons. The available days of the steel mill's imported iron ore are 21 days, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Iron Ore Demand**: This week, the daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons. The daily average port clearance volume has returned to normal after the holiday. The pig iron output remains high with strong resilience but is expected to gradually decline in the future [34]. 4. Future Outlook - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the year-on-year inventories of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils reached new highs in recent years, with prominent contradictions. Since the peak season this year, steel inventories have been rising, mainly due to weak demand and high production capacity, and steel profits have been continuously compressed. Due to the support of terminal demand, especially exports, the market is relatively restrained in shorting steel profits. The high steel production leads to strong demand for raw materials, providing some cost support for steel prices. Currently, steel inventories are large and terminal demand is weak. Steel may start to reduce production and enter a negative feedback loop. Even if production is not reduced, steel prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in short-term short positions [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the hot-rolled coil main contract showed short-term narrow-range fluctuations and continued its weak trend [9]. 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot market showed weak fluctuations [11]. 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis is 61, the 05 basis is 60, and the 10 basis is 26 [14]. 2.2 Cold-Hot Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit - The production profit is 84, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 144, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 110, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 127 [21]. 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production - The hot-rolled coil production is 321.84, the cold-rolled coil production is 87.41, the rebar production is 201.16, and the production of the five major steel products is 856.95 [24]. 3.3 Raw Materials - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory - The hot-rolled coil inventory is 419.19, the cold-rolled coil inventory is 183.45, the rebar inventory is 641.05, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1582.26 [29]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.6 Export - Exports continued to strengthen month-on-month, and exports supported demand [34]. 4.后市展望 - The market situation and operation strategy are the same as the core view [37].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: "Bottom Range, Continuous Fluctuation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [3] Group 2: Report Structure - The report includes three parts: market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This part presents the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports [10] - **Mid - stream**: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, etc [12][14][16] - **Downstream**: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [18][25][27] Group 5: Future Outlook - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed Chairman Powell said the employment and inflation outlook in the US "seem not to have changed much", and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, which will provide more space for China's domestic monetary policy. China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an improving manufacturing climate [32] - **Market Trends**: Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the supply in the Indonesian market was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate rebounded recently, but its medium - term trend remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract will be approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless - steel contract will be about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [32]