4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 研究所 震荡运行，关注节日备货情况 ——国信期货苹果周报 2026年1月30日 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 一 a 苹果期货主力合约AP2605先涨后跌，整体维持震荡行情。节日备货效应提振，盘面小幅上行；周五商品市场普遍下跌，带动苹 果期货盘面走弱。 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2026年1月29日，全国冷库苹果库存量为601.01万吨，全国冷库库存比例约为45.63%。果农低价货出残率偏 高，近期包装人数增加。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：冷库出货量逐渐增加 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2026年1月29日，全国冷库库容比下降2.38个百分点，去库存率18.32%。其中， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂油料月报 油脂油料 南美天气叙事或启动 市场或有上涨机会 2026 年 1 月 25 日 国际方面，2月南美天气仍有一定的炒作的题材，巴西中部地区的降雨可 能影响收割进度，而阿根廷地区的旱情也将引起市场的重视。尽管巴西大豆丰 产预期增强，但由于其价格优势明显，仍是中国采购的首选，巴西大豆升贴水 或保持坚挺格局，出现降价促销的概率减弱。进入2月份，美豆需求陷入一降 一增的局面，出口可能重新疲软，而压榨需求继续保持旺盛局面，美豆库存可 能会继续回升，美豆供给格局或转向宽松。不过由于南美2月份或有天气炒作 题材，这使得CBOT大豆在1000美分处或有支撑，期价维持底部震荡的走势，如 果南美天气持续发酵，CBOT大豆或有小幅上行的可能，否则维持震荡格局。 2 月份国内豆粕现货市场供给或因进口大豆到港下降或有不足，而需求平稳，这 使得豆粕现货库存稳中趋降。豆粕市场或呈现近强远弱，现货强期货弱的局面。 仍需关注海关通关的相关政策的变化。连粕或维持底部宽幅震荡，期价或在震 荡区间内小幅反弹，南美天气炒作、国内现货供给不足等因素或提供支撑。 油脂方面，国际方面，美豆油方面，2月美国多项 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Guoxin Futures Sugar Monthly Report - **Report Date**: January 25, 2026 - **Report Analyst**: Hou Yating 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **International Market**: The supply - surplus situation caused by the significant increase in Indian sugar production dominates the short - term trend. The support from Brazil's inventory reduction and strong exports is limited. The international sugar price is likely to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2][18]. - **Domestic Market**: The concentrated listing of new sugar, unexpected high imports, and weak demand lead to prominent inventory pressure. With multiple factors in play, there is insufficient upward driving force. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly oscillate within a range [2][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: In January, the highest point of the main Zhengzhou sugar futures contract reached 5,313 yuan/ton. Supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking, the price rose to the high point but failed to stay above 5,300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to the concentrated listing of new sugar, increased imports, and the drag of international sugar prices, the price dropped to a low level. Overall, it oscillated within a range with insufficient upward driving force [5]. - **International Sugar Price**: In January, the international sugar price oscillated at a low level. The expectation of supply surplus caused by the unexpectedly large increase in Indian production and rising export expectations dominated the trend. The lowest price reached 14.41 cents/pound. After hitting the bottom, it rebounded, but later fell again under the influence of the global supply - surplus pattern and the speculative short - selling sentiment [5]. 3.2. International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: South Brazilian sugar mills have entered the end of the crushing season. The reduction of new - season sugar supply has accelerated the inventory reduction process. As of December 15, the industrial sugar inventory in the central - southern region was 8.09 million tons, a significant 22% decrease from the previous month and a slight 2% decrease year - on - year. The supply is gradually tightening. On the export side, as of January 14, the total amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports climbed to 1.6629 million tons, an increase from the previous week. Since mid - December, the shipping bookings of raw sugar in the central - southern region have remained stable, indicating strong demand [7]. - **India**: As of January 15, 2026, 519 sugar mills in India had cumulatively crushed 176 million tons of sugarcane this season, compared with 148 million tons in the same period last year; the sugar production was 15.885 million tons, higher than 13.06 million tons in the same period last year; the average sugar yield was 9.01%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The NFCSF expects the total sugar production this season to be 35 million tons. After converting about 3.5 million tons to ethanol according to the first - phase ethanol distribution plan, the net production will be 31.5 million tons. The domestic consumption is expected to be 29 million tons. With the initial inventory of 5 million tons, the inventory at the end of this season is expected to be about 7.5 million tons [10]. 3.3. Domestic Market Analysis - **Inventory and Sales**: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, one less than the previous year. The cumulative amount of crushed sugarcane was 16.2303 million tons, a decrease of 5.2515 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 1.9419 million tons, a decrease of 0.8095 million tons year - on - year; the mixed sugar yield was 11.96%, a 0.85 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the cumulative sugar sales was 0.8848 million tons, a decrease of 0.7474 million tons year - on - year. In December alone, the sugar production was 1.808 million tons, a decrease of 0.431 million tons year - on - year; the sugar sales was 0.7954 million tons, a decrease of 0.5518 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative industrial inventory was 1.0571 million tons, a decrease of 0.0621 million tons year - on - year. In the same period, Yunnan had cumulatively sold 0.2814 million tons of new sugar, an increase of 0.0143 million tons compared with the same period last year. The sugar sales rate was 71.72%, a 9.98 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The single - month sugar sales was 0.2491 million tons, an increase of 0.0147 million tons compared with the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 0.1109 million tons, an increase of 0.0511 million tons compared with the same period last year. These data reflect the current situation of the domestic sugar market: the expected production increase has been realized, the imported sugar has supplemented the supply, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is prominent [13]. - **Imports**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 140,000 tons from the previous month and 190,000 tons year - on - year. From January to December 2025, China cumulatively imported 4.92 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.57 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.77 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons year - on - year. The market expected a tightening of the import quota in 2025, but the annual data did not confirm this, and the import volume exceeded market expectations. In December 2025, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 120,800 tons year - on - year. From January to December 2025, China imported a total of 1.1888 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China imported a total of 299,600 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 339,500 tons year - on - year. After the tightening of the syrup import policy, the import of Thai syrup has significantly decreased [15]. 3.4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **International Market**: Operate based on the range - oscillation concept, and make arrangements around the 14.0 - 15.3 cents/pound range. Pay attention to the implementation of India's export policy [2][18]. - **Domestic Market**: Adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high. Place short orders based on the resistance level of 5,300 yuan/ton. Also, pay attention to the latest changes in the import policy. The operation suggestion for Zhengzhou sugar futures is mainly short - term trading [2][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply - side shows that as of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory is about 6.3232 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The new - season apple cold - storage inventory is lower due to yield decline, but there is sufficient supply at present. The proportion of high - quality apples in cold storage is low, and the cost of merchants after sorting is high. The demand - side indicates that as of January 22, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage shipment volume during the Spring Festival stocking period has increased slightly, but is slightly lower than last year. The market focus has shifted to the demand side. The Spring Festival delay is beneficial for apple sales in cold storage, and the export volume is expected to increase. However, high fruit prices and the large supply of substitute fruits have impacted apple consumption. The market is expected to be range - bound, and the operation suggestion is to buy low and sell high within the range [1][2][39]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review - In January 2026, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a slight rebound currently. The Spring Festival stocking started, and the delay of the Spring Festival increased the stocking time, boosting the market to 10,019 yuan/ton. But the delayed Spring Festival also means a narrower sales window later, and the reduction of long - positions led to the market decline [7]. Part II: Fundamental Analysis of Apples 1. Shortage of High - quality Apples, Difficulty in Solving the Problem of High - quality Fruit Rate in the Short Term - As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory is about 6.3232 million tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period of the past seven years. Shandong has about 2.4516 million tons, Shaanxi about 1.7369 million tons, and non - main producing areas about 2.1347 million tons. The yield decline led to a lower inventory, but there is sufficient supply. The proportion of high - quality apples in cold storage is low, and the defective rate of some farmers' apples is high, leading to high sorting costs for merchants [10]. 2. Accelerated Shipping Speed in Producing Areas during the Spring Festival Stocking Period - As of January 22, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate was 14.06%. The cold - storage shipment volume in Shandong increased slightly during the Spring Festival stocking period, but was slightly lower than last year. In Shaanxi, the shipment volume is gradually increasing. The delay of the Spring Festival is beneficial for apple sales in cold storage, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm and shipping speed [16]. 3. Increase in Fresh Apple Imports in December - China's fresh apple imports are mainly from countries such as New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. In December 2025, the import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The import demand is expected to increase, but the import scale is expected to remain at the current level [20]. 4. Export Peak Season for Fresh Apples, Recovery in Export Volume - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In December 2025, the export volume was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The export volume increased significantly due to the Christmas and New Year festivals. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a month - on - month increase in export volume, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [23]. 5. Impact on Apple Demand due to the Listing of Citrus Fruits - In recent years, the overall fruit harvest and imported fruits have increased market choices. Citrus, which is in season from November to March, is a major winter fruit. Due to the large supply and low price of citrus, it competes with apples during the Spring Festival. In January, fruit prices remained high, and the large supply of substitute fruits such as citrus and cherries at low prices has impacted the terminal consumption demand for apples [26][29]. 6. Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Apple prices have obvious seasonality. The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by factors such as inventory clearance, reduced supply of seasonal fruits, and festival stocking. November and December are affected by new - fruit supply and festival effects. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and inventory quality decline. August is affected by the listing of early - maturing apples and inventory quality issues. October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the listing of substitute pears [33][34]. 7. Stable Spot Prices in Producing Areas, Price Differentiation among Different - Quality Apples - As of January 23, 2026, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of high - quality apples is stable. The high - quality apples are priced at 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for 80 above first - and second - grade farmers' slice - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' 80 above first - and second - grade apples. The price difference between large and small apples may further widen during the cold - storage sales period, and the futures far - month contracts may remain strong [37]. Part III: Outlook for the Future Market - The supply - side situation is the same as the previous analysis, with low inventory and a low proportion of high - quality apples. The demand - side shows a slightly lower cold - storage shipment volume compared to last year. The market focus is on Spring Festival stocking. The Spring Festival delay and the export peak season are beneficial for demand recovery, but high fruit prices and substitute fruits have impacted consumption. The market is expected to be range - bound, and the operation suggestion is to buy low and sell high within the range [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by both supply - and demand - side factors. The market anticipates a tightening of coniferous pulp supply in 2026, while downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with limited enthusiasm for high - price pulp purchases. Attention should be paid to the demand stabilization and port inventory digestion. After demand stabilizes, a bullish approach can be considered [2][31] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 rebounded and then fell sharply. The market had already priced in the expected tightening of coniferous pulp supply, but weak downstream demand limited the follow - up increase in actual orders. Currently, the strong performance of the sector has led to a slight rebound in pulp futures [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 December Import Volume Increased Month - on - Month, but 2026 Pulp Import Expected to Tighten - China has a high external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In December 2025, China imported 3113000 tons of pulp, with an average unit price of $578.03/ton. The coniferous pulp import volume in December was 895900 tons, up 9.27% month - on - month and 11.51% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative pulp import volume and amount increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to the previous year. Due to geopolitical factors, imports from North America decreased, but those from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay increased. However, large pulp mills are shutting down or reducing capacity, and the coniferous pulp supply in 2026 is expected to tighten significantly [12][13] 3.2.2 European Port Inventory Declined, Overseas Demand May Gradually Recover - In November 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% year - on - year. The European wood pulp port inventory has been declining since September, indicating that the off - season for papermaking demand in Europe and the US has passed. With the Fed in a rate - cut cycle, overseas wood pulp demand may slowly recover. Against the backdrop of the European papermaking industry's merger wave, pulp export quotes are firm. Some large pulp mills will reduce broad - leaf pulp production in 2026, and due to the shortage of wood chips, the price of bleached broad - leaf wood pulp in Asia has been raised [17] 3.2.3 European Inventory Declined, Export Quotes Continued to Rise - Since August, the import price of broad - leaf pulp has rebounded. In January, the export quotes of some pulp products increased. Due to high import dependence, the import cost strongly supports domestic prices. However, the downstream finished paper price has difficulty following the increase, and the spot market price of imported wood pulp is weak. As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5381 yuan/ton, down 3.08% week - on - week, and that of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4636 yuan/ton, down 1.00% week - on - week [20][21] 3.2.4 Cost Increase Further Suppressed the Profits of Downstream Base Paper Enterprises - The rising prices of imported coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have increased the production costs of downstream paper enterprises, but the increase in base paper prices is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness for high - price raw materials. As of January 22, 2026, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was below the break - even point. The operating rates of different paper types showed different trends, and overall, downstream paper mills were focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement [24][25] 3.2.5 The Inventory of Major Domestic Ports Increased and Remained at a High Level - As of January 22, 2026, the total pulp inventory in several major ports was 2019800 tons, up 3.37% week - on - week. Generally, the inventory increases during the Chinese New Year due to reduced purchasing demand. However, the postponed Chinese New Year in 2026 may lead to a moderate recovery in domestic demand, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, the 2025 import data shows an increase in volume but a decrease in amount compared to the previous year. In 2026, the coniferous pulp supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, the operating rates of different paper types vary, and downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction. The market has priced in the supply - tightening expectation, but weak demand has limited the price increase. The domestic port inventory is high, and the postponed Chinese New Year may lead to a moderate demand recovery. Attention should be paid to demand stabilization and inventory digestion, and a bullish approach can be considered after demand stabilizes [30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, pre - Spring Festival stocking provides some support with notable low - level buying. However, the significant increase in cotton and cotton yarn imports in December signals strong supply - side negatives, suppressing cotton prices and the textile industry in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [1][24]. - Internationally, the USDA's January cotton supply - demand report is bullish, with global cotton production cut, demand increased, and ending stocks decreased. ICE cotton futures are stabilizing, waiting for clear demand signals, showing an overall bullish adjustment pattern with limited downside [1][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, Zhengzhou cotton first soared, then declined, and finally entered a volatile phase. After the positive news of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang was realized, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton dropped from 15,095 yuan/ton to 14,430 yuan/ton and then fluctuated [3]. - The international cotton market was volatile at a low level in January. In the early part of the month, the rise of Zhengzhou cotton drove up US cotton, which reached 65.76 cents/pound and then declined with Zhengzhou cotton. The USDA report was bullish, and US cotton export data improved, leading to a relatively strong and volatile US cotton market [3]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Tightening Policy Implementation - The previously expected policy of tightening cotton supply in Xinjiang has been implemented. It is expected that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season will be about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10% decrease) from the previous year. The policy was detailed at a meeting on January 9, 2026 [5]. - Reasons for the reduction include soaring planting costs (a 96% increase from 424.3 yuan to 830.6 yuan in the past three years), diluted subsidy benefits due to increased production, hindered quality improvement, water resource constraints, and external market challenges [6][7]. - Specific reduction measures target four key areas: low - quality and inefficient planting areas (especially those with yields below 350 kg/mu in southern Xinjiang), groundwater - over - exploited areas, illegally reclaimed land in 2022, and adjustments for 49,000 large - scale contractors to ensure fairness [8]. 3.2.2 Constraints from Price Differences and Textile Profits - In December 2025, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. High price differences between domestic and international markets led to increased imports. Cotton yarn imports have also increased since September [9]. - Textile profits improved when cotton prices declined from July 2025 but deteriorated as prices rose from November. Current orders cannot support a significant increase in raw material prices [13]. 3.2.3 Weakening Downstream Demand - As of January 16, the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises were 45.8% and 48.7% respectively, down from 49.5% in late November, providing limited support for raw materials [15]. - The finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises has changed. The cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises decreased by 1.4 days to 26.6 days, while the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 3.9 days to 36.4 days, reaching the second - highest level in five years [17]. 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bullish Impact of the Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The USDA's January cotton supply - demand report is bullish. Globally, cotton production decreased by over 350,000 bales, with production cuts in India, the US, Argentina, and Turkey, partially offset by a 1 - million - bale increase in China's forecast. Consumption increased by over 300,000 bales, with China's consumption rising but some decreases in Turkey and Nicaragua. Trade volume remained stable, and the 2025/26 global ending stocks were cut by 1.5 million bales, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropping below 63% [19]. 3.3.2 Improved US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the predicted annual export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the total signed volume. - In the week ending January 8, US cotton export sales increased by 77,000 tons, a 247% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the four - week average. USDA's weekly signing reached a high for the year, with China signing over 10,000 tons and Vietnam also performing well [22]. 3.4 Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - Domestic cotton is likely to fluctuate before the Spring Festival due to supply - side pressure from imports despite pre - festival stocking support [1][24]. - International cotton shows a bullish adjustment pattern with limited downside as the USDA report is positive [1][24]. - The operational suggestion is to adopt a band - trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton [2][25]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the corn supply - demand situation in 2025/26 is generally loose, with increased production in the US and Ukraine, and stable high - level production in South American countries [1][33] - In China, corn production increased significantly in 2025/26, but the poor quality of North China corn shifted demand to Northeast corn. The slowdown in grain sales since December leaves sufficient grassroots surplus grain, posing pressure in spring [1][33] - Corn and substitute grain imports have a limited impact on domestic supply. In the demand side, the feed demand has short - term resilience but future production capacity will shrink; deep - processing consumption is not strong [1][33] - The low - inventory state of the corn market still supports prices, but the effect is weakening. Future focus should be on grain sales rhythm and policy trends, and the operation idea is mainly range - bound [1][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since January, the domestic corn spot market has been oscillating strongly. Northern ports' spot prices rose slightly due to low inventory. Futures were slightly stronger than spot, but then turned to an oscillating pattern due to downstream concerns and policy auctions [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Corn Supply Increase - In 2025/26, the US corn harvest area was 36.93 million hectares, with a yield of 11.71 tons per hectare, and a total output of 432 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio rose to 13.6%, and supply increased by 7 million tons compared to December's estimate. Export sales also increased significantly [6] 3.2.2 Stable High - level Production in South America - In 2025/26, Brazil's corn production was estimated to be around 131 - 139 million tons, and Argentina's was estimated to be 53 million tons. The production in both countries was generally stable, and the possibility of high - yield realization was high [10] 3.2.3 Recovery - type Production Increase in Ukraine - In 2025/26, Ukraine's corn production was estimated to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the previous year. However, the production increase was less than expected due to adverse weather [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Slowdown in Grain Sales and Sufficient Grassroots Surplus Grain - In 2025/26, China's corn production reached 301 million tons. The poor quality of North China corn restricted sales progress, while Northeast corn had a faster sales rate. As of January 15, the national grain sales progress was the same as the previous year, but the surplus grain was still sufficient due to increased production [16] 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations, Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - In 2026, due to low or negative profits in the pig and egg - laying chicken breeding industries, livestock and poultry inventory is expected to decline, and feed consumption will weaken. In deep - processing, starch processing profits are poor, and alcohol processing consumption has weakened [20][21] 3.3.3 Reduced Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since 2025/26, the price difference between wheat and corn has been high, increasing corn's cost - effectiveness in feed. With the stable increase in domestic corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased [24] 3.3.4 Inventory Recovery in Downstream Enterprises with Limited Motivation for Further Increase - Northern port inventories have declined since late December, and Guangdong's grain inventory is still low. The raw material inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast enterprises is still low. Feed and deep - processing enterprises have limited motivation to further increase inventory [30]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled 'Demand Expectation Reduction, Methanol in Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Methanol Weekly Report' and dated January 18, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads - The main methanol contract MA2605 closed at 2,239 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.27%, an increase of 11,000 lots in positions, and a total position of 820,000 lots [6] 2.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Spreads between Production and Sales Areas - The coastal methanol market slightly declined this week, and the inland market also had a narrow decline. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,246 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1,848 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease [9] 2.3 Methanol Foreign Prices and Spreads between Domestic and Foreign Markets - For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non-Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month is 254 - 269 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation price for Iranian cargoes arriving in the near - far - month is +0.5 - 2.4%. The European methanol market was stable this week, with a reference price of 260 - 265 euros/ton and a few transactions at 260 euros/ton [12] Group 3: Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Methanol Operating Rate - As of January 15, the overall operating rate of domestic methanol plants was 77.91%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points from the previous week and 1.69 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 89.45%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and 1.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] 3.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - No specific data provided in the given text 3.3 Methanol Port Inventories - The coastal methanol inventory this week was 1.432 million tons, a decrease of 30,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.09%. The available methanol supply in coastal areas was 688,000 tons. The unloading speed of imported ships was slow, leading to a narrow decline in coastal inventory. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported ships in China in mid - to - late January will be 740,000 tons [23] 3.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The domestic thermal coal market weakened from strong this week, and the market sentiment cooled. The production of coal mines in producing areas was stable, and the downstream procurement rhythm was first fast and then slow, putting pressure on pit - mouth prices [27] 3.7 Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream - The weighted operating rate of the overall methanol downstream was 74.2%, a decrease of 4.4% from the previous week, and the weighted operating rate of the traditional downstream was 55.5%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [29] 3.8 Methanol Downstream - MTO - The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 80.75%, a decrease of 4.67 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating rate of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 70.03%, a decrease of 8.85 percentage points from the previous week [39] Group 4: Market Outlook - On the domestic supply side, the operating rate of methanol plants slightly decreased due to the maintenance of Henan Zhongxin and Shanxi Lubao. The coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly this week. In terms of demand, more olefin plants carried out maintenance due to profit issues, and the operating rate of externally purchased MTO plants decreased by 8.85 percentage points to 70%. The overall market was in a weak consolidation state due to uncertain foreign supply, sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices, downstream resistance to high prices, and the expectation of weakening demand [41]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", with the date of January 18, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - The section focuses on the price trend of nickel's futures main contract, with data from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [6][7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [10][11] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [13][15][17] - **Downstream**: Includes the price, futures positions, inventory of stainless steel, the production of power and energy - storage batteries, and the production of new - energy vehicles from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [19][21][24][26][29] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, lowering the target range of the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75%. The US GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.3% year - on - year, higher than Q2 and market expectations. The People's Bank of China will introduce 8 policy measures, including cutting the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [34] - **Market Outlook**: Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising and then falling this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level in the same period. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 250 million tons, much lower than 2025. The production of ferronickel in Indonesia in December remained high, with a large supply pressure. The social inventory of downstream stainless steel is decreasing faster, but the pressure of high inventory is still prominent. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in the range of approximately 130,000 to 160,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract of stainless steel will operate in the range of approximately 13,500 to 15,500 yuan/ton [34]