研究所 郑糖下跌 短期走弱 ——国信期货白糖周报 2025年9月19日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖下挫，周度跌幅1.43%。 ICE期糖震荡走弱，周度跌幅2.28%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 2、广西、云南销售情况 研究所 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 4 3、食糖进口情况 研究所 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2023年 2024年 2025年 7月进口74万吨，同比增加32万吨。ICE期糖10月合约16.5美分/磅价格计算，巴西配额内进口成本为4539元/吨，配 额外进口成本为5769元/吨；泰国配额内进口成本为4580元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Cotton Imports**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - **Cotton Inventory**: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - **US Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Low-level Fluctuation, Pay Attention to the Stabilization of Demand - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2511, rebounded from the bottom and then declined, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Price - As of September 18, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44%, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.02%, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to August - In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.545 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.36 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [16] Port Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points [20] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [24] Downstream Pulp Operating Rates - Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption. Non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of September 18, the operating load rates of double-coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.29, 0.66, 0.16, and 2.51 percentage points respectively week-on-week [30] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume showing a stable performance. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of pulp export quotes for September: softwood pulp Silver Star at 700 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Venus at 590 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Star up 20 US dollars/ton to 540 US dollars/ton. With the new round of export quotes rising, some industry players are reluctant to sell and hold prices. There is a tentative price increase in the spot market of imported softwood pulp, but the profit margin of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the conversion period between the traditional off-season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the stabilization of downstream demand for a real "reversal". The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long position at low prices [35]

研究所 延续高位震荡，多单考虑止盈 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年9月19日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 苹果期货主力合约AP2601高位震荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 根据卓创资讯公布的最新一期库存数据，截至2025年9月18日，全国冷库苹果剩余总量20.81万吨，处于近五年历史的最低位置 ，其中山东产区冷库剩余量15.26万吨，陕西产区冷库库存量4.75万吨。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：7月出口量环比增加 研究所 Ø 根据海关总署公布的数据，2025年7月鲜苹果出口量约为5.36万吨，环比增加44.95%，同比减少19.39%。从季节性上看，第四 季度及次年第一季度是苹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market has abundant supply, with the domestic asphalt supply expected to remain ample in September due to the recovery of production profits and the resumption of some previously shut - down facilities. The demand is showing a seasonal rebound, with the waterproofing membrane and road - modified asphalt开工率 rising. The social inventory is decreasing, while the factory inventory is increasing. The cost is uncertain due to the volatile international oil prices. In the short term, the asphalt market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside space, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand and the movement of crude oil prices [72][73] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Asphalt Futures Main Contract Trend**: From September 8 - 12, the main contract of asphalt futures, BU2511, fluctuated downward, with a range decline of 1.64% and a range amplitude of 3.63% [6] - **1.2 - 1.4 Regional Asphalt Price Differences**: Information on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference is presented, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text other than indicating the data sources [9][12][15] 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **2.1 Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of Shandong local refineries' asphalt is - 292 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction), a week - on - week increase of 138.63 yuan/ton; that of Hebei local refineries is - 262.15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 138.52 yuan/ton; and that of Jiangsu's major refineries is 419 yuan/ton [21] - **2.2 - 2.3 Price Spreads**: On September 12, the price spread between the closing price of the BU main contract and SC*6.6 main contract was 231.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.78 yuan/ton compared to September 5. On September 11, the price spread between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 241.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.57 yuan/ton compared to September 4 [24][29] - **2.4 China's Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: This week, China's heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 34.9%, a week - on - week increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [32] - **2.5 China's Weekly Asphalt Output**: China's weekly asphalt output was 60.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.45% and a year - on - year increase of 43.06% [36] - **2.6 Weekly Asphalt Output by Ownership**: Local refineries' weekly asphalt output was 34.30 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.04%; PetroChina's was 12.20 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%; Sinopec's was 12.20 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.42%; and CNOOC's was 2.10 tons, remaining flat [39] - **2.7 Shandong's Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Weekly Capacity Utilization**: Shandong's weekly asphalt operating rate was 36%, a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [42] - **2.8 Shandong's Weekly Asphalt Output**: Shandong's weekly asphalt output was 18.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.35% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95% [45] - **2.9 - 2.10 Domestic Asphalt Plant Maintenance**: From September 4 - 10, the weekly loss of domestic asphalt plants was about 46.66 tons, a decrease of 2.03 tons compared to the previous week. Detailed information on plant maintenance in different regions and refineries is provided [48] - **2.11 Asphalt - Related Demand**: This week, the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 36.07%, a week - on - week increase of 6.31% and a year - on - year increase of 6.09%; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.62%, a week - on - week increase of 4.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.87% [54] - **2.13 - 2.14 Asphalt Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 167.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%; the weekly factory inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 74.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.69%. In Shandong, the factory inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 25.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.23%; the social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 39.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.67% [56][59] - **2.15 - 2.16 Domestic Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days are provided, with some regions expected to have moderate to heavy rain [63] 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: China's heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is rising, and with the recovery of production profits and the resumption of some plants, the domestic asphalt supply is expected to remain ample in September [72] - **Demand**: With the reduction of rainfall and the alleviation of high temperatures, the rigid demand for asphalt is seasonally rebounding. In the north, demand is increasing steadily; in Shandong and Central China, demand is continuously improving; in the south, demand is being released steadily [72] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing, while the factory inventory is increasing, indicating that the downstream提货 speed is slower than the supply growth rate [72] - **Cost**: International oil prices are fluctuating, causing uncertainty in asphalt costs and a strong market wait - and - see sentiment [72] - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures, BU2511, continues to fluctuate within a limited range, reflecting a strong market wait - and - see sentiment and a lack of breakthrough momentum [73] - **Short - Term View**: The asphalt market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside space, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand and the movement of crude oil prices [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Stock index fluctuations increase and bonds recover. Stock index futures should be put under observation, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [121][123][124] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50) and CSI 300 Market Review**: The SSE 50 is approaching a new high, and the CSI 300 has reached a new high [9] - **1.2 CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bond Market Review**: The CSI 500 has reached a new high, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **2.1.1 Trading Volume of SSE 50 and CSI 300**: The trading volume of the SSE 50 has declined, while that of the CSI 300 has increased [21] - **2.1.2 Trading Volume of CSI 500 and CSI 1000**: The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have declined [25] - **2.1.2 Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2 trillion [29] - **2.1.3 Turnover Rate - Free - Float Market Capitalization**: The turnover rates of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 have increased, and those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have increased significantly [32] - **2.2.1 CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent [39] - **2.2.2 CSI 300 Sector ALPHA**: The ALPHA values of the materials, information, and telecommunications sectors are positive, while those of the energy, finance, and utilities sectors are negative over the full cycle [43] - **2.3 Newly Listed Companies**: In July, the number of listed companies increased by 3 [49] - **2.4.1 Stock Index Positions**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.4.2 Stock Index Premium or Discount**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.5.2 Treasury Bond Basis - Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **3.1.1 Open Market Operations**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity - CSI**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (10 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has declined significantly [84] - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (5 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [87] - **3.1.3 Inter - bank Repo Rate**: The inter - bank repo rate has declined slightly [91] - **3.1.4 Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has declined significantly [95] - **3.2.1 CPI - PPI**: In August, the CPI was - 0.4%, showing a slight recovery, and the PPI growth rate reached - 2.9% [99] - **3.2.2 Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing Activities**: In August, the PMI dropped to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3, indicating weak economic recovery [103] - **3.3.1 Consumption Situation**: In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, showing a slight increase [108] - **3.3.2 Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence is on a downward trend [111] - **3.4.1 Overall Money Supply**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, credit accelerated, and M1 was 6% (Note: The central bank revised the M1 indicator). The newly added RMB loans in August were 590 billion [113][115] - **3.4.2 Newly Added RMB Loans**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.4 Outlook for the Future - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market trading volume is at the level of 2.5 trillion. Market sentiment shows that the number of limit - up stocks exceeds 100, and the number of falling stocks increases significantly. Hot sectors such as AI, the chip industry chain, and communications are experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. Funds are flowing into low - valuation sectors. Institutions have net inflows, while the main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors all have net outflows. Stock market fluctuations increase, and stock index futures should be put under observation [123] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the money market level, the central bank has a net reverse - repurchase injection of 196.1 billion. The money liquidity is relatively sufficient, and domestic market interest rates remain low. The yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuates around 1.7895%. With significant stock market fluctuations, investors' risk preferences may be more cautious, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [124]

Report Title - "Sino-US to Conduct a New Round of Economic and Trade Talks, Overseas Fed Rate Cut to Be Implemented Soon - Guoxin Futures Macro Weekly Report" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Sino-US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks, with non-tariff economic and trade issues likely to be important topics, and US unilateral tariff measures remaining a key point. Overall, there is cautious optimism about this economic and trade talk. The US Department of Commerce's abuse of export controls may be an attempt to gain more leverage in the talks. China's Ministry of Commerce's anti-discrimination and anti-dumping investigations against the US will benefit domestic substitution industries for analog chips. Domestically, the economy showed positive signs in August, with exports growing slightly, price levels improving, and money supply and social financing also showing positive changes. Overseas, the US inflation is relatively moderate, and the market highly anticipates a Fed rate cut. Other events such as political changes in France and Japan also have an impact on the market [8][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Review (0908 - 0914) - **Domestic Data**: In August 2025, China's total import and export value was $541.29 billion, with exports at $321.81 billion (up 4.4% year-on-year), imports at $219.48 billion (up 1.3% year-on-year), and a trade surplus of $102.33 billion. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with a narrowing decline. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by 6.0% year-on-year, and M0 by 11.7% year-on-year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the increment in August was 2.57 trillion yuan. On September 15, the central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation [5][6] - **Overseas Data**: In the US, the CPI in August was 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year. The European Central Bank maintained its three major policy interest rates unchanged. As of September 12, the market expected a 93.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut on September 18, and the cumulative rate cut for the year might be 75 basis points [6][9] - **Political Events**: On September 9, French Prime Minister Belleru submitted his resignation. On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his resignation [9][10] - **Economic and Trade Talks**: From September 14 - 17, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US on issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [7] - **Trade Frictions**: The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List," and China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations against the US [7][8] Part 2: High - Frequency Data - **Domestic Commodities**: From 0908 - 0912, the wholesale price of pork was stable at 19.88 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of vegetables decreased slightly to 5.07 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price of fruits decreased slightly to 6.75 yuan/kg [14] - **International Commodities**: From 0908 - 0912, the CRB Spot Composite Index was stable at 551.72 [17] - **Money Market**: From 0908 - 0912, DR007 and R007 both increased slightly to 1.4575% and 1.4651% respectively [20] - **Foreign Trade Market**: From 0908 - 0912, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 2126 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to decline to 1125.30 [24][29] Part 3: Major Asset Classes (0908 - 0912) - **Stock Market**: A - share major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.10% [33] - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The closing prices of treasury bond futures varied, with the 2 - year treasury bond futures down 0.04%, the 5 - year up 0.07%, and the 30 - year down 1.08% [33] - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar index fell 0.13%, the on - shore US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.22%, and the euro against the Chinese yuan fell 0.12% [35] - **Commodity Market**: Crude oil fell 1.39%, Shanghai gold rose 2.28%, live pigs fell 0.53%, Shanghai copper rose 1.15%, and rebar fell 0.51% [35] Part 4: Weekly Focus (0915 - 0921) - September 14 - 17: Sino - US economic and trade talks in Madrid, Spain - September 15: China's August industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data - September 16: US August retail sales month - on - month - September 17: Bank of Canada interest rate decision - September 18: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [38]

供需双降 甲醇震荡筑底 --国信期货甲醇周报 2025年9月14日 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 甲醇期现货价格及价差走势 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 2024-01-01 2024-01-22 2024-02-12 2024-03-04 2024-03-25 2024-04-15 2024-05-06 2024-05-27 2024-06-17 2024-07-08 2024-07-29 2024-08-19 2024-09-09 2024-09-30 2024-10-21 2024-11-11 2024-12-02 2024-12-23 2025-01-13 2025-02-03 2025-02-24 2025-03-17 2025-04-07 2025-04-28 2025-05-19 2025-06-09 2025-06-30 2025-07-21 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the cost line, with support around 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton, due to supply - side复产, increased imports, and lack of short - term domestic demand growth, although potential risks at the Guinea mine end may provide a price safety cushion [16][147][151]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation provides macro - level support, and the strengthening of the peak - season fundamentals, along with inventory de - stocking, will drive up the price. Existing long positions can be held [16][147][151]. - Casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The rise in aluminum prices drives up alloy prices, and the increase in raw material costs and the improvement in demand from the automotive market support the price, despite high inventory levels [18][148][152]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important Information**: In August, the US CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Aluminum will be classified as both "critical minerals" and "growth minerals" in the UK's upcoming strategy. Qinghai Baihe Aluminum plans a 500,000 - ton capacity upgrade project [8][9]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,077.47 yuan/ton, down 68.84 yuan/ton from September 5. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. China's electrolytic aluminum production in August 2025 was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in August was 53.3%, up 9.2% from July [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton. The smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory was 625,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, down 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 72,469 tons, up 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina fluctuated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated upwards [16]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: The domestic alumina spot price continued to fall this week, and the spot premium narrowed to about 150 yuan/ton [30]. - **Supply**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. In August 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased month - on - month and year - on - year [34]. - **Imports and Exports**: On September 11, the FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 338 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 5. The alumina import window opened, increasing domestic supply pressure [35]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the alumina port inventory was 55,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In July, China's alumina export volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of September 12, coal prices in major regions fluctuated. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in September slightly decreased to about 0.382 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable this week [50][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [56]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%, the highest in the same period in the past four years [58]. - **Spot**: As of September 12, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [61]. - **Price Trend and Premium**: This week, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, the spot price in the spot market rose, and the spot was at a discount. LME aluminum fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot was at a premium [67]. - **Demand**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. In August, the aluminum processing industry PMI reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [68]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [71][76]. - **Imports and Exports**: The aluminum ingot import profit window closed. In August 2025, China exported 534,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to August was 3.996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [80][83]. - **End - Use Markets**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles is relatively bright. From September 1 - 7, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% [92]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloys. The price of scrap aluminum has been rising, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has changed [100][105]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by raw material prices. The spot price of ADC12 has changed, and the overseas price and import profit also show certain trends. The production volume of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloys have their own characteristics [111][114][122]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand end for casting aluminum alloys. The demand for casting aluminum alloys has seasonal characteristics, and the new order index has increased since August [126][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloys includes social inventory and factory - level inventory, and the current inventory level is relatively high [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the live hog spot market first declined and then stabilized. The supply was relatively loose due to the continued increase in the slaughter of large - scale farms and the slow digestion of large fat pigs by retail farmers. The live hog futures market was mainly volatile. Fundamentally, as the piglet price falls and the policy promotes the orderly reduction of production capacity, it is beneficial to reduce the long - term supply pressure. In the medium and short term, the potential slaughter volume will remain at a high level until the end of this year. The sales volume of fattening pig feed continued to grow well in August, indicating sufficient live hog inventory. The enterprise slaughter plan in September is still increasing, and retail farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs, so the supply will remain loose and the pressure on the pig market will be difficult to relieve. The operation suggestions are to be bearish with a side - way trend for single - side trading and to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market first declined and then stabilized last week, with loose supply. The futures market was volatile. In the long - term, the falling piglet price and policy - driven production capacity reduction are conducive to reducing supply pressure. In the medium and short - term, the supply will remain loose and the pig market pressure is hard to relieve. The operation suggestions are single - side bearish and spread reverse arbitrage [7] 70. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operation - In case of excessive price decline, the national level does not start temporary reserve purchase for the third - level warning, considers it for the second - level warning, and starts it for the first - level warning. Local areas follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increase, in the market's cyclical fluctuation, the central reserve release starts for the second - level warning and increases the release for the first - level warning. In case of special situations like major animal epidemic risks, after the first - level warning, the release is mainly concentrated in key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, but generally not higher than the central level [70]