1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the main contract of methanol futures completed the roll - over. As Iranian plants gradually shut down for maintenance, methanol prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. However, port inventories were still at a historically high level, limiting the rebound space. The domestic methanol production reached a new high, and the inventory in the production areas was seasonally accumulating. The demand from the new Shandong Lianhong olefin plant would boost the coastal methanol demand. Attention should be paid to the realization of import reduction expectations and the pre - holiday stocking of domestic downstream industries in January [2][4][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In December, the main contract of methanol futures, MA605, first fell and then rose. It hit a low of 2,072 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and fluctuated around 2,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of about 2.5%. The spot price in Taicang increased by about 1.3% to 2,140 yuan/ton, while the Inner Mongolia market price dropped by about 4.5% to 1,905 yuan/ton. The port basis strengthened, and the inland basis weakened by about 175 yuan. The arbitrage window between production and sales areas opened. In the international market, European and American methanol prices continued to decline, while prices in China's main port and Southeast Asia stabilized [6][8][12] 3.2 Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis - **Domestic Production**: The national methanol operating rate reached a historical high. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 77.63% at the end of the month, with the northwest region at 89.01%. The coal - based plant operating rate reached a new high, and the southwest natural - gas - based plants entered winter maintenance. The domestic methanol production in December was about 7.5 million tons, a 12% increase from the previous month, and the average monthly production in 2025 increased by 8.6% compared to last year. The inventory of inland representative enterprises increased by 5% compared to the end of November [15][16] - **Port Inventory**: In November, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a 12% month - on - month decrease, and the average monthly import in 2025 was 1.1543 million tons, a 2.6% increase from last year. The re - export volume increased. By the end of December, coastal methanol inventories decreased by about 360,000 tons from the annual high in November to 1.3185 million tons. Although the inventory decreased, it was still at a historically high level. The actual unloading of imported ships was delayed, and downstream demand was stable. It was expected that the import volume in December would remain high, and the reduction might be reflected in the first quarter of next year [20][21][22] - **Industrial Chain**: - **International Natural Gas**: International natural gas prices first rose and then fell in December. The international methanol production cost once exceeded 2,000 yuan/ton, and the import profit declined. - **Coal - Based Production**: Coal prices increased in October, and the theoretical cost of coal - based methanol in the northwest was around 2,000 yuan/ton. The theoretical cash flow of coal - based methanol approached the cost line, reducing the production enthusiasm. - **Downstream Demand**: In December, the overall downstream operating rate of methanol remained high, with a weighted average of about 78.34%. The traditional downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.7 percentage points. The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants decreased slightly. The 1.3 - million - ton/year methanol - to - olefin plant of Shandong Lianhong was successfully commissioned, which would significantly increase the coastal methanol demand [30][32][36] 3.3 Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - On the supply side, the domestic methanol production remained high, and the international methanol production capacity utilization rate decreased. The import volume in December was expected to remain high, and the reduction might occur in the first quarter of next year. On the demand side, the new Shandong Lianhong plant would boost the coastal methanol demand. In January, attention should be paid to the realization of import reduction expectations and the pre - holiday stocking of domestic downstream industries [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global corn supply - demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, with increased production in the US and Ukraine and relatively stable production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, there is a significant increase in corn production in 2025/26, but the quality of North China corn is poor, leading to more demand from grain - using enterprises shifting to Northeast corn. Currently, the overall corn selling progress is fast, but due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level. On the demand side, the breeding industry is continuously losing money, and the production capacity of the pig and egg industries will decline. Feed demand has short - term resilience but is pessimistic in the future. In the deep - processing sector, starch processing profits are poor, and the operating rate is low, while alcohol mainly digests low - quality corn. Regarding the inventory behavior of the mid - and downstream, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is insufficient motivation to further increase inventory substantially. The operation should be treated with a view of oscillation [1][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the domestic corn market has declined from a high level, and then the spot market has also adjusted following the futures market. Futures play a leading role in the spot market. The weaker performance of futures than spot has led to a passive strengthening of the basis at the northern ports. After the corn futures reached a high level at the beginning of the month, market fear of high prices increased. Rumors of wheat and imported corn auctions emerged, suppressing the bullish sentiment. Futures fell first, which further increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell and realize profits. Coupled with the fact that high spot prices have indeed inhibited restocking demand, both futures and spot prices declined in a resonant manner [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Increase in US Corn Production and Significant Rebound in Ending Stocks - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, in 2025/26, the US corn harvested area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is 425 million tons. Feed consumption is 155 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the ending stocks are 51.53 million tons, with a stock - to - use ratio of 12.5%, lower than the November estimate of 13.3% but significantly higher than the previous year's 10.1% and also at a relatively high level since 2020/21. The significant increase in production is the key factor driving the balance sheet to become looser, mainly due to a large increase in area and a recovery - type growth in yield. Exports and domestic consumption have also increased correspondingly due to the supply boost. From the current export sales report, US corn export sales have increased by nearly 10 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year, and the overall completion progress is good [5]. 3.2.2 Brazil and Argentina's Production Expected to Remain Stable at a High Level - According to the USDA's December estimate, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year but with little overall change. According to the latest estimate of Brazil's domestic institution CONAB, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 139 million tons, a decrease of more than 2 million tons compared with the previous year, similar to the change degree estimated by the USDA. In Argentina, according to the USDA estimate, the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the ending stocks are 4.18 million tons. Overall, the production of Brazil and Argentina in South America in 2025/26 is generally stable. As of now, the weather in the producing areas has been good, and the possibility of achieving high - yield expectations in the future is high [7]. 3.2.3 Recovery - type Increase in Ukraine's Production but with a Revised - down Growth Rate - According to the USDA estimate, Ukraine's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with the previous year's 26.8 million tons, with an increase rate of 8%. The increase in production is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield. The final ending stocks are 848,000 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous year, and the stock - to - use ratio is 2.92%, at a low level in recent years. Overall, although Ukraine's production has increased, due to the impact of adverse weather later, the production increase rate is lower than the previous expectation [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Increase in New Crop Production and Fast Selling Progress - In terms of new crop production, according to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national corn production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 300 million tons, an increase of more than 5 million tons compared with the previous year, mainly due to an increase in yield per unit. In terms of the listing rhythm, due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period in the North China production area, the quality of new corn is poor and the toxin content is high. Grain - using enterprises and grain merchants have a weak enthusiasm for purchasing North China corn, limiting the selling progress. On the other hand, the quality of Northeast corn is good, and there is more procurement from grain merchants in the inland areas, resulting in a fast selling progress of Northeast corn. According to the statistics of myagricultural.com, as of December 25, the selling progress of Northeast corn reached 44%, an increase of 8 percentage points year - on - year; the selling progress of North China corn was 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year - on - year; and the national corn selling progress was 45%, an increase of 4 percentage points year - on - year. Due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level in China [14]. 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations and Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - According to the calculation data of the Feed Industry Association, the feed output in November 2025 was 28.73 million tons, entering the seasonal decline stage month - on - month but significantly higher than the previous year's 27.1 million tons year - on - year, mainly affected by the expansion of the pig breeding industry's production capacity in 2024. For 2026, since the pig breeding profit has re - entered the loss range, and national policies are focusing on promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity in the pig industry, and the laying - hen breeding industry has also had a very poor year, feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, according to the sample statistics of myagricultural.com, since 2025/26, the consumption of corn in the national starch industry has decreased year - on - year, mainly because poor processing profits have led to a low operating rate. However, the consumption of corn in the alcohol industry has increased significantly year - on - year, mainly because there is a relatively large proportion of low - quality corn in North China, which is difficult to enter the food processing and feed processing fields and can only be consumed through alcohol processing. From the perspective of the total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the cumulative consumption since this marketing year is similar to that of the previous year [18][19]. 3.3.3 Expected Reduction in the Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since September, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been at a relatively high level, giving corn a good cost - performance advantage in the feed field. From the perspective of the corn addition ratio in compound feed statistics of the Feed Industry Association, since September, the corn addition ratio in feed industry production has also continuously rebounded. In terms of import substitution, with the stable growth of China's corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the volume of imported substitute grains has significantly decreased compared with previous years. The impact of imported substitutes is more reflected in a phased and regional manner [25]. 3.3.4 Rebound in Downstream Enterprise Inventory and Limited Motivation to Further Increase Inventory Significantly - In terms of the inventory of north - south ports, the inventory at northern ports has continuously rebounded and has reached a level close to 2 million tons, but it is still slightly lower than the same period in a neutral sense. Later, with the advancement of the new corn gathering at ports in the Northeast, the inventory at northern ports will also increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively low level compared with the same period, but with the increase in the arrival of imported grains, the inventory will also be supplemented to some extent. In terms of the raw material inventory of grain - using enterprises, the inventory of North China deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast deep - processing enterprises is still low. From the perspective of the inventory - to - use ratio, the inventory - to - use ratio of national deep - processing enterprises rebounded rapidly in December, and the shortage pattern of raw materials for deep - processing enterprises has improved. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises have also rebounded significantly to a neutral level compared with the same period. Due to the poor overall profit of the breeding sector and the pessimistic feed demand expectation, feed enterprises have little motivation to further replenish inventory significantly [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term: The increasing decline rate of the breeding sow inventory in October and the expected high decline rate in November are beneficial to reducing the slaughter pressure after August next year [1][20]. - Medium - term: From now to May next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally remain at a high level. Although the sales volume of piglet feed decreased month - on - month in October and November, corresponding to a slight decrease in slaughter after April next year, the overall amplitude is small. The continuous growth of fattening pig feed sales reflects the continuous increase of the pig inventory in society [1][20]. - Short - term: In December, small and medium - sized farmers sold large pigs quickly, resulting in a short - term shortage of large pigs and a higher price difference between fat and standard pigs. The price difference stimulated some secondary fattening, which boosted the spot market and reduced the possibility of a shortage of large pigs during the pre - Spring Festival peak season. The period from now to mid - January is a phase of weak demand, but the high price difference between fat and standard pigs increases the demand for pressing and secondary fattening, offsetting the impact of weakening demand. Later, attention should be paid to the supply - demand matching during the pre - Spring Festival peak season and whether there will be early slaughter before the festival, which may reduce the post - festival supply pressure. For the LH03 contract, although it corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is supported by the expectation of strong pre - Spring Festival spot prices and reduced post - festival supply pressure due to early slaughter. The far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate widely, and opportunities for low - level band trading can be considered [1][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the live pig spot market has been weakly oscillating and rebounded slightly later. In the first half of December, the spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, was as low as around 11.2 yuan/kg, mainly due to the strong selling enthusiasm of small and medium - sized farmers and limited consumption boost. In the second half of December, as the pressure of selling large pigs by small and medium - sized farmers decreased and the slaughter demand during the pre - Winter Solstice peak season increased, the spot price rebounded. The futures market generally oscillated. The LH01 contract was the weakest, mainly because the delivery cost in the southern region was low, and the futures price returned to the area with the lowest delivery cost. The LH03 contract, corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival, strengthened, and the futures curve structure changed to a fully positive structure because the market was worried about a shortage of large pigs after the Spring Festival [3]. 3.2 Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Piglet data shows high future standard pig slaughter volume - The national breeding sow inventory reached a peak of 40.8 million heads in November 2024 and then oscillated downward. By the end of October, the inventory was 39.9 million heads, a reduction of 2.2% from the peak. Due to weak pig prices and continuous losses in breeding profits, the elimination of breeding sows is expected to continue to increase, which will reduce the supply pressure in the third quarter of next year. From the piglet birth data of various institutions, the piglet birth volume has been at a high level since June, with a slight decline in November. Calculated by the time cycle, the theoretical standard pig slaughter volume will be at a high level until May next year [5]. 3.2.2 Feed sales confirm a large inventory of social pigs - From July to September 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed generally increased steadily. In October and November, the month - on - month growth rate turned negative, but compared with the same period in 2024, the month - on - month growth rates of these two months were roughly the same. The sales volume of fattening pig feed had a relatively high month - on - month growth rate in October and November 2025. From the feed perspective, the inventory of social pigs is generally increasing, but the marginal growth rate may be slightly lower than last year [8]. 3.2.3 Small and medium - sized farmers' large fat pigs are digested faster, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs is increasing - According to the samples of Yongyi Consulting, the average weight of pigs sold by散户 reached the peak and then declined in mid - December, with the same rhythm as the same period last year, but the absolute value of the average weight was slightly higher year - on - year. The average weight of pigs in group farms declined in December, but the overall decline was not large, and it also increased year - on - year. The price difference between fat and standard pigs increased in December, consistent with the rhythm of last year, reflecting a shortage of large pigs after the accelerated selling of large pigs by散户[10]. 3.2.4 Consumption is generally flat, and attention should be paid to the performance during the pre - Spring Festival peak season - According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting an increase in domestic pig supply. The fresh - selling rate of slaughtered pigs has decreased, and the utilization rate of frozen product storage capacity has continued to rise, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Seasonally, after the Winter Solstice, the demand for curing pulses has passed, and the slaughter volume will decline. About 25 days before the Spring Festival, the slaughter demand will enter a peak - season strengthening pattern. Considering that the Spring Festival in 2026 is on February 17th, the next pre - Spring Festival demand pulse will start around mid - January. Whether the supply and demand can be effectively matched during the pre - Spring Festival peak season needs to be observed through key indicators such as the price difference between fat and standard pigs and the average weight [13]. 3.2.5 The industry continues to lose money, and there is limited room for cost reduction - Since the second half of September 2025, pig prices have declined rapidly, and pig breeding profits have deteriorated significantly. As the national average price has remained below the industry average cost of 12 yuan in recent months, the breeding profits of the self - breeding and self - raising model have also been in a continuous loss state. In the future, the price of piglets is still low, and the expected cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will also be low. According to Yongyi Consulting's estimate, the expected cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets in late December has dropped below 12 yuan. From the perspective of feed cost, the prices of soybean meal and corn are both at low levels, and there is little room for further reduction in feed cost. The low pig price will continue to squeeze profits and may gradually stimulate the industry to reduce production capacity [17]. 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The long - term, medium - term, and short - term views are consistent with the core viewpoints of the report. For the LH03 contract, pay close attention to the further verification of indicators such as the price difference between fat and standard pigs and the average weight. Treat the far - month contracts as wide - range oscillations and consider low - level band trading opportunities [1][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the main hot-rolled coil contract oscillated and rebounded, and the market trend was relatively strong. The production of hot-rolled coils, rebar, and other steel products remained high, with a slowdown in the pace of production cuts. Steel demand had certain support, and the steel market profit oscillated weakly. The rebound in raw material prices drove up steel prices. The negative feedback logic in the previous market operation was suspended due to factors such as the warming of macro sentiment, and the market entered a rebound phase. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short term [36]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - **1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend**: This week, the main hot-rolled coil contract oscillated briefly and continued to decline in the short term [9]. - **1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend**: The spot market oscillated weakly [12]. 2. Basis and Spread - **2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Spread Trend**: The 01 basis was -8, the 05 basis was 3, and the 10 basis was -8 [15]. - **2.2 Cold-Hot Spread**: Not provided 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit**: The production profit was 36, the 01 market profit was 241, the 05 market profit was 193, and the 10 market profit was 208 [22]. - **3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production**: The hot-rolled coil production was 291.91, the cold-rolled production was 86.09, the rebar production was 181.68, and the production of the five major steel products was 797.97 [25]. - **3.3 Raw Materials**: Not provided - **3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory was 390.72, the cold-rolled coil inventory was 163.67, the rebar inventory was 452.54, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1294.78 [30]. - **3.5 Terminal Demand**: Not provided - **3.6 Export**: Exports decreased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively high level [34]. 4. Market Outlook - The hot-rolled coil market entered a rebound phase, and the recommended strategy is short-term participation [36].

Report Title - "Weak Oscillation, Bottoming Out and Rebounding - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", dated December 21, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inflation data in the US in November showed a slowdown, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected and down from 3.0% in September. Core CPI also hit a new low since March 2021. In China, the CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding. The increase was related to the rise in food prices [33]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding this week. Refined nickel prices first fell and then rose, and nickel inventories were at a high level compared to the same period. There were supply disturbances as the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia might be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. The nickel ore market was affected by the rainy season, with unstable shipments in the Philippines and relatively loose supply in Indonesia. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand and rising costs, but its medium - term sustainability was weak. In the stainless - steel market, approaching the year - end off - season, steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand was poor, and inventory reduction was slow. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was approximately 113,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract, it was about 12,300 to 13,200 yuan/ton [33]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - Focused on the price trend of the nickel futures main contract, presenting a data chart of the nickel futures closing price (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [6][7] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Showed the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports, presenting a data chart of the Chinese nickel ore port inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 tons [9][10] 2.2 - 2.4 Midstream - **2.2**: Presented the price of electrolytic nickel, showing a data chart of the electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) price from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [12][13] - **2.3**: Presented the price of nickel sulfate, showing a data chart of the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [14][15] - **2.4**: Presented the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, showing data charts of the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of tons and yuan/nickel respectively [16][17] 2.5 - 2.8 Downstream - **2.5**: Covered the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel. It presented data charts of the stainless - steel futures closing price (continuous), stainless - steel futures positions, and Wuxi stainless - steel inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of yuan/ton, lots, and tons respectively [18][21][24] - **2.6**: Presented the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [26][27] - **2.7**: Presented the monthly output of new - energy vehicles, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese new - energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [28][29] Part 3: Future Outlook - Analyzed the inflation data in the US and China, and the market conditions of nickel and stainless steel. Predicted the operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [33]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton is not over yet, and it is accumulating energy during the consolidation period [2] - In the short - term, with the support of increasing positions, there may still be room for Zhengzhou cotton to rise. In the medium - term, it is highly probable that the center of Zhengzhou cotton price will move up [53] - The short - term upside of US cotton remains under pressure, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [53][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a relatively strong oscillation this week, with a weekly increase of 1.19%. ICE cotton futures had a slight oscillation, with a weekly decrease of 0.17% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 114 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As a large amount of new cotton was launched on the market, the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage, and the commercial inventory of cotton in the second half of November was 4.6836 million tons [19][20] 3.1.4 Downstream Inventory Situation - In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28] 3.1.5 Yarn Price - This week, the yarn price increased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn was raised by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 751. The number of warehouse receipts was 3619, and the effective forecast was 3949, with a total of 7568 [37] 3.1.7 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only the data source of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price was provided [41] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of November 27, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 135,900 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 4500 bales [43][47] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 23.7%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 22.5%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 9.9%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.0%. The total proportion of drought - affected areas (D1 - D4) was 34.0% [50] 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) 3.2.1 Domestic Market - This week, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly around 14,000 yuan/ton, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. From the perspective of inspection data, the amount of inspected cotton has reached about three - quarters of the expected output, with a year - on - year increase of more than 600,000 tons. Currently, the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton price may face significant hedging pressure, but in the medium - term, it is likely that the center of gravity will move up [53] 3.2.2 International Market - The international market oscillated within a narrow range. The US cotton sales were not ideal, the Chinese market maintained a small - scale signing volume, and the overall shipment process remained stable. The weak export data had a certain suppressing effect on the US cotton trend. In India, the launch of new cotton accelerated, the purchase by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) increased, the export volume rebounded significantly, and the textile and clothing exports rebounded month - on - month. However, the upward trend of domestic cotton prices in India may not last. Macroscopically, concerns about the US recession increased, and the short - term upside of US cotton remained under pressure [53] 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [54]

研究所 供需偏宽松 玉米连续调整 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年12月19日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国内玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 玉米淀粉市场动态 4 国际玉米市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货震荡偏弱，期货下跌为主，主力切换到2603合约，港口基差上扬，1-3月差走强，而3-5月差走弱，2603承 受了较大压力。基本面来看，本周黑龙江及山东产区深加工企业门前到车增加，一方面是雪后放晴带来的卖压回升，另一方面 也与持粮主体看涨心态减弱有关；基层农户售粮继续推进，但东北售粮进度略有放缓，华北稳定正常，预计春节前仍有一波小 的卖粮小高峰；进口玉米来看，后期巴西进口玉米逐步到港，有利于缓解南方库存紧张的格局。需求端来看，养殖利润持续不 佳，饲料需求短期有韧性，但预期偏悲观；深加工利润依然不佳，开机率维持低位稳定的格局；从补库需求来看，饲料厂及深 加工企业原料库存连续回升，北港库存也明显增加，补库提振力度减弱。综合来看，玉米阶段性供需错配格局结束，后期在需 求不佳及供应充足的背景下，预计偏弱震荡运行为主。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 研究所 1 ...

Report Title - "Demand Expected to Decline, Near - Term Contracts Under Pressure — Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, live pig spot prices fluctuated and rebounded due to a phased strengthening of consumption. Futures prices first rose and then fell. Near - term contracts were weak due to the spot price increase falling short of expectations, while the March contract strengthened, and the futures curve turned into a contango structure [7]. - Fundamentally, domestic live pig supply is expected to increase overall by the end of the first quarter of next year based on piglet birth and feed production and sales data. In the short term, large - scale farms had low sales in the first half of the week and higher enthusiasm in the second half, while small and medium - sized farmers had high enthusiasm for sales, but the pressure of selling large pigs has not been fully digested [7]. - In terms of demand, slaughter demand will decline periodically around the Winter Solstice, and will pick up again when pre - Spring Festival stocking demand starts. Spot prices may face short - term adjustment pressure, but the decline space is limited as the pre - Spring Festival peak season is not over [7]. - In the long run, the expectation of industry capacity reduction due to losses in the live pig industry still exists, providing some bottom support for far - term contracts. The LH03 futures contract is at a premium to LH01, and the market expects a shortage of large pigs after the Spring Festival due to pre - festival early sales. However, supply pressure after the festival is still large according to piglet data [7]. - For operation, treat near - term contracts as oscillating weakly, and look for buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts under the idea of wide - range oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Past week's market: Spot prices rebounded due to consumption, futures first rose then fell, near - term weak, March contract strong, futures curve in contango [7]. - Supply situation: Overall supply to increase by Q1 2026, short - term large - scale farms' sales pattern changed, small and medium - sized farmers have large - pig sales pressure [7]. - Demand situation: Slaughter demand to decline around Winter Solstice, pick up with pre - Spring Festival stocking, short - term spot price adjustment pressure but limited decline [7]. - Long - term outlook: Industry capacity reduction expectation supports far - term contracts, post - festival supply pressure still large [7]. - Operation suggestions: Near - term weakly oscillating, far - term look for buying on dips [7] 65. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - Price over - decline: National level, no temporary reserve purchase for Level 3 warning, consider for Level 2, start for Level 1. Local conditions refer to national practice [67]. - Price over - rise: Two scenarios. In market cyclical fluctuations, start reserve release for Level 2 warning, increase release for Level 1. In special cases like major animal diseases, tolerate higher price increases, release mainly in key periods after Level 1 warning. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than central level [67]

研究所 先跌后涨，盘面波动加大 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年12月19日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 苹果期货主力合约AP2605高位回落，小幅反弹修复，多空力量持续博弈。 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月18日，全国冷库苹果库存量为712.7万吨，冷库库存比例约为54.12%，较去年同期（ 202412019）低6.81个百分点。库存量处于历史偏低位置，为苹果价格提供一定支撑。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：冷库出货量逐渐增加 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月18日，全国冷库库容比下降0.54个百分点，单周出库量较上周增加0.19个百分点 ...

研究所 资金流入 郑糖加速寻底 2025年12月19日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 ——国信期货白糖周报 郑糖加速下跌，周度跌幅2.42%。 ICE期糖弱势运行，周度跌幅4.17%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024 ...