国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货 2026 年投资策略报告 稳经济稳预期 股债双震荡 金融 2025 年 11 月 23 日 主要结论 1、2025 年，国内经济恢复速度逐渐减慢，房地产拖累幅度有所减小。国内主要 经济消费方面，居民就业不平衡-规模性返乡-居民收入预期降低-消费增速低迷不振 循环。投资方面，房地产持续下滑-地方财政收入减少-项目投资与基础建设缺乏力 度-经济恢复缓慢，经济向新质生产力提升，但是新质生产力产生的就业机构与传统 行业产生的就业结构并不一致，经济恢复发展的同时，传统行业带来的就业冲击无 法通过新质生产力经济发展来消耗。2024 年 9 月中国政策逻辑发生转变，开始大力 度刺激经济的货币财政政策，货币方面，大力度降息、下调存量房贷利率等，财政 政策提出化解地方政府隐性债务。2025 年中国经济政策方向转向新质生产力，通过 经济转型升级的方式，进一步提升经济质量。外部方面，特朗普上台之后对打关税 战，对全球贸易形成阻碍，即便中美暂时缓和，特朗普的关税整体上影响全球贸易。 国际局部国家地缘政治或无法完成和平解决。2026 年国内经济政策将会更加注重内 循环，居民、私人企业资产负债表修复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply of coniferous pulp is decreasing due to production cuts by major global coniferous pulp mills, while the increase in broadleaf pulp production makes it difficult to relieve the supply pressure, leading to a continuous differentiation between coniferous and broadleaf pulp. Geopolitical factors have reduced imports from North America, but increased imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have supplemented the supply. Overall, China's total pulp imports are at a historically high level. The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. Waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [2][3][14] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In 2025, the pulp futures generally showed a downward trend from a high level. From January to October, it dropped significantly due to increased wood pulp imports, frequent macro disturbances, and poor profitability of downstream paper mills, resulting in weak demand. From October to the present, there has been a slight rebound as the traditional peak season for the paper industry arrived in October, new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises was continuously released, and pulp demand slightly recovered [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis Import Volume - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 4.8% and -2.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Specifically, the cumulative import volume of coniferous pulp was 712.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%, and that of broadleaf pulp was 1382.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [2][13] European Port Inventory - In September 2025, the total inventory of European ports decreased by 4.39% month-on-month and 0.49% year-on-year. Except for the inventory in Spanish ports remaining flat month-on-month, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, and Italy decreased by 1.36%, 2.17%, 6.87%, and 9.55% respectively month-on-month [19] Domestic Major Port Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 201.04 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.71%, with the growth rate narrowing by 2.51 percentage points [22] Pulp Consumption - In recent years, the global apparent consumption of pulp has been stable at 1.8 billion tons. In the long run, the global pulp supply and demand are basically balanced. Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% [24] Downstream Paper Mills - The operating load rate of downstream paper mills has decreased, the profitability of the paper industry has improved poorly, and they purchase raw materials based on rigid demand. High-price transactions in the pulp market are not smooth. As of November 20, the weekly average price of Silver Star spot was 5560 yuan/ton, and the current gross profit margin was below the break-even line [29] Domestic Market Prices - As of November 20, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5567 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.07 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4392 yuan/ton, a 1.62% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.05 percentage points. The downstream paper mills' operating rate has decreased, and high raw material prices have suppressed their purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic broadleaf pulp supply is abundant, and the price increase is weak. The spot market price of imported broadleaf pulp is running weakly [34] 3. Future Outlook - China's high external dependence on pulp remains unchanged, and the import volume and inventory data are similar to the previous analysis. The supply situation of coniferous and broadleaf pulp continues to differentiate, and the pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market, and waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [36][37]

Report Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Globally in the 2025/26 cotton season, supply increases with major producers maintaining high levels, consumption is expected to see slight growth, and trade policies and Fed's interest - rate cuts will impact cotton prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely [2][55]. - In the domestic market for the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply significantly increases, new - cotton costs change little, textile enterprise inventories are at a healthy level, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [3][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **ICE Cotton Futures**: The annual trend is divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, it was in a wide - range weak oscillation. From October to the end of the year, it further weakened due to macro - negatives and weak fundamentals [5][6]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures**: The annual trend has four stages. It oscillated and then dropped rapidly from the beginning of the year to early April, rebounded from mid - April to mid - July, oscillated from mid - July to late September, and weakened again from late September to the end of the year [7][8]. 2. International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand situation is slightly looser. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 63.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024/25. Production rises by 300,000 tons, consumption increases slightly by 90,000 tons, and ending inventory increases by 390,000 tons [13]. - **US Cotton**: The USDA raised the 2025/26 production forecast to 14.12 million bales, up 900,000 bales from the September report. Exports are expected to increase to 1.22 million bales, and ending inventory is up 20% to 4.3 million bales. Good weather led to a significant increase in yield [15][16]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: The USDA's November report shows a production forecast of 4.09 million tons, up 110,000 tons month - on - month, and exports are expected to reach 3.16 million tons. Although Brazilian cotton exports were strong in the first three quarters of 2025, future exports may face more competition [22][23]. - **Indian Cotton**: The 2025/26 initial inventory is expected to rise to about 1.03 million tons, a 55% increase. Production is expected to be 5.19 million tons, down 130,000 tons. Domestic consumption is expected to slow to 5.1 million tons. With sufficient supply and increased imports, exports may increase [25][26]. - **Global Economy**: The global economy is showing signs of a mild slow - down. The Fed is in an easing cycle, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in 2026. Tariff policies may lead to a re - structuring of the global textile supply chain [29][30]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.18 million tons, and consumption is slightly lower than the previous year. Overall, the supply - demand situation is slightly looser [31]. - **Production and Cost**: The USDA estimates the 2025/26 cotton production at 7.3 million tons, while domestic estimates are higher at 7.42 million tons. New - cotton costs are relatively low, with the average machine - picked cotton seed - cotton purchase price in Xinjiang between 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg [35][36]. - **Imports**: It is expected that imports in the 2025/26 season will increase slightly to 1.2 million tons. The reduction of tariffs on US cotton imports from 25% to 15% is expected to promote imports [40]. - **Textile Industry**: Since the second half of 2025, the textile industry has been relatively healthy, with a decrease in pure - cotton yarn inventory and an increase in the industry's prosperity index. In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic sales of textiles and clothing continued to grow moderately [45][46]. - **Exports**: In 2025, the export of textiles and clothing faced complex situations. With the narrowing of the effective tax - rate gap between China and Southeast Asian countries, direct exports to the US are expected to increase significantly in 2026 [50][51]. 4. Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply increases, consumption may see slight growth, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to trade - policy changes [55]. - **Domestic Market**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply increases, new - cotton costs change little, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [56].

Report Title - Guoxin Futures' 2026 Investment Strategy Report: Bear Market Continues, Sugar Prices Seeking Bottom [1][2] Core Views - In the 2025/26 season, the global sugar market shifts from shortage to surplus. The market is bearish, but negative factors may be digested in advance. Sugar prices may rebound if the supply fails to meet expectations due to weather issues. Low sugar prices may dampen production willingness next year [2][47] - In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase for two consecutive years in the 2025/26 season. Imports are likely to remain high, and consumption is expected to stay stable. Sugar prices are on a downward trend and may reverse when supply contracts [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review International Market - **High-level oscillation (January - April)**: ICE raw sugar prices rebounded to 20.19 cents/pound at the beginning of the year, supported by India's lower-than-expected production. However, with Brazil's new harvest season and other factors, prices fell [4] - **Trend decline (April - early July)**: ICE raw sugar prices dropped from 18.5 cents/pound to 15.44 cents/pound, driven by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and other factors [4] - **Sideways consolidation (July - early October)**: After breaking below 16 cents/pound, prices rebounded and oscillated. Short-term positives supported prices, such as Brazil's increased ethanol blending ratio [5] - **Bottom-seeking stage (mid-October - end of the year)**: Prices fell again, hitting a five-year low of 14.04 cents/pound in early November, due to increased supply from major producers [5] Domestic Market - **High-level oscillation (January - late April)**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices reached a high of 6198 yuan/ton, supported by good domestic sales data. However, concerns about global supply limited the upside [8] - **Periodic decline (May - June)**: Prices dropped from above 6000 yuan/ton to around 5600 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of increased global supply [8] - **Oscillatory rebound (mid-June - late July)**: Prices rebounded to 5893 yuan/ton, as short-term factors such as reduced Brazilian production and low domestic inventories supported the market [9] - **Bottom-seeking stage (August - end of the year)**: Prices fell below 5400 yuan/ton, pressured by international supply and high domestic imports [9] 2. International Market Analysis Global Supply Shift - In the 2025/26 season, global sugar production may reach the second-highest level on record. Consumption is expected to grow slightly, and most institutions predict a surplus of 40 - 750 tons [10] Brazil - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 4500 tons, a historical second-lowest. The 2026/27 season is expected to be good, with a preliminary estimate of 4200 tons. High inventories and low prices may keep export pressure high [15][18] India - In the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase to 3095 tons. Consumption is expected to reach 2900 tons. The government allows 150 tons of exports, but the possibility is low [20][22] Thailand - In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production may reach 1100 tons, and exports are expected to exceed 800 tons. However, floods and import bans may affect production and exports [24][28] 3. Domestic Market Analysis Inventory Accumulation - In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1170 tons, and consumption is expected to be 1570 tons. The market faces inventory accumulation and remains in a bear market [30] Production Increase - In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase to over 1170 tons. Guangxi, Yunnan, and other regions are expected to contribute to the increase, but weather and other factors may affect the final output [32] Import Situation - In the 2025/26 season, imports are likely to remain high, but policy changes need attention. The import of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline, but "roundabout" imports may occur [36][42] Consumption and Policy - Overall sugar consumption is expected to be stable, supported by consumption stimulus policies. In 2026, relevant policies are expected to continue to play a role [43]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米年报 供需略转宽松 宽幅震荡运行 玉米 2025 年 11 月 21 日 主要结论 分析师：覃多贵 2025/26 年国际玉米市场总体呈现宽松格局，但供应压力较大的地区主要集 中在美国。目前南美进入播种期，市场预估产量较为稳定。但考虑 ENSO 环流进 入拉尼娜模式，未来天气变化可能会对南美产量的兑现产生不利影响。国内方面， 2025 年全国玉米种植面积仍有增长，同时得益于较好的天气条件，国内单产亦 较上年有所提升，使得总的产量较上年有明显增加。不过，需要注意的是，华北 地区由于收割期受连续降水的影响，玉米品质较差，毒素偏高，限制了其在淀粉 及饲料加工等领域的使用。这使得东北产区优质玉米在饲料领域的价值明显提 升，华北及南方销区的粮商也纷纷加大在东北的收购力度，有利于缓解东北增产 带来的压力。需求方面，2025 年蛋鸡养殖大幅亏损，四季度生猪养殖利润也转 为全面亏损，叠加国家政策引导生猪行业去产能，2026 年饲料消费量预计将有 明显的缩减。深加工方面，考虑到木薯淀粉进口冲击预计有所减弱，同时，华北 质量较差的玉米进入酒精加工领域，预计全年深加工的玉米消耗量将有所恢复。 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪年报 周期磨底 去产能节奏决定上限 生猪 2025 年 11 月 21 日 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 国信期货研究 Page 2 一、行情回顾 主要结论 2025 年国内生猪处于供应压力逐步兑现的阶段，这种供应压力一方面有前 期能繁母猪存栏增加的滞后影响，另一方面也与行业生产效率提高、PSY 整体水 平上行相关。但由于饲料成本的下降，生猪养殖行业全年大多数时间仍能保持微 利，直接到三季度末，供应压力大幅超过消费的承接能力，才开始进入全面亏损 的阶段。往后来看，根据仔猪出生数据推算到明年二季度，国内生猪供应都处于 增加的格局，对猪市仍将形成较大的压制。而未来供应压力的减轻，还需求行业 去产能兑现。尽管国家有关部 ...

研究所 需求淡季主导 1 行情回顾 2 沥青基本面 3 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 价格弱势承压 2025/11/16 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1.1 沥青期货主力合约走势 研究所 本周（11月10至14日白天收盘）沥青期货主力合约BU2601震荡运行，区间跌幅为0.36%，区间振 幅为2.57%。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2 山东部分炼厂70#A出厂价 研究所 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.3 山东重交沥青基差 研究所 山东重交沥青基差 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 研究所 P 第 a 二 r 部 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 2.2 BU主力合约收盘价与SC*6.6主力价差 研究所 t 分 2 沥青基本面 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1 沥青生产综合利润 研究所 为454.05元/吨。 当前山东地炼沥青生 产理论利润-373. ...

Report Title - "Weak Decline with Limited Downside Space – Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals (Nickel) by Guoxin Futures" dated November 16, 2025 [2][3] Report Core View - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a weak downward trend this week. Refined nickel production remained high while demand was insufficient. The supply from the Philippines was affected by the rainy season and Typhoon "Seagull", with shipping stagnant, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand, and the mid - term trend was yet to be observed with new capacity coming on stream. The stainless - steel market had weak prices, cautious raw material procurement by steel mills, poor terminal demand, and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory data of China's nickel ore ports from a certain period, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trend of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [18][19] 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [20][21] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - Displays the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) [22][23] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [24][25][26] 2.5 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - Shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel [27][28][29] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - Displays the monthly production volume of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total production volume of power and energy - storage batteries [30][31] 2.7 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles [32][33] 3. Outlook for the Future - In the US, on October 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with internal differences. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 36.6%. In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry has been in the contraction range since April. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries in October were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, still in the expansion range. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39]

研究所 阶段性供需错配 玉米震荡走强 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年11月14日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货上涨， 主要受中下游建库支撑，期货上涨，主力C2601合约上涨1.68%，期货商品曲线正向结构变缓，主要 是近端涨幅较大。基本面来看，新季玉米增产明显，目前产区农民销售节奏较快，东北、华北主产区基层农户售粮进度都处于 近几年较高水平；进口玉米依然处于低位，且中美贸易协议也无明确增加玉米采购的表述，预计未来进口难有大幅增长空间。 需求端来看，尽管养殖利润不佳，饲料需求的预期较差，但现实的高存栏也使得刚需较强，华中、西南地区饲料企业原料库存 低位下有较强的补库需求；深加工方面，淀粉企业利润虽较前期所改善，但同比处于低位，考虑成品库存去化偏慢，淀粉企业 开机率虽环比提升，但不具备太大的继续上升空间。总体来看，目前玉米市场受阶段性供需错配影响表现偏强，但年前东北玉 米仍有一定上市压力，预计市场还会反复，但上市底部或已出现。操作上，震荡思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the past week, the live - hog market showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak. The futures market had a structure where near - term contracts were weak and far - term contracts were strong, the basis weakened slightly, and the forward structure of the futures curve became steeper. From the number of piglet births, the domestic live - hog slaughter pressure will be realized from now to the second quarter of the next year, with the theoretical slaughter volume generally increasing in the later stage. [7] - In the short term, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms is a bit slow and is expected to speed up in the second half of November. Small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding back their pigs. [7] - The demand is gradually picking up, and it's time to observe whether consumption can effectively absorb the supply. Considering the high frozen - meat inventory and low spread between live - hog and pork prices, it's difficult for the peak consumption season alone to support the rise of live - hog spot prices. [7] - For the future market trend, attention should be paid to the realization of consumption and the time point of inventory reduction of live hogs. In the long term, focus on the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. [7] - In terms of operation, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for LH2601 and LH2603 contracts. Treat the LH2609 contract in the far - month as a wide - range shock and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The live - hog market had a first - strong - then - weak pattern last week. Futures showed near - weak and far - strong, with a slightly weaker basis and a steeper forward curve. The slaughter pressure will be high from now to the second quarter of next year. In the short term, large - scale farms' slaughter may speed up, and small - scale farmers are holding back pigs. Consumption is picking up, but it's hard for it alone to support price increases. Pay attention to consumption and inventory reduction, and the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm. Adopt different trading strategies for different contracts. [7] 67. Central Reserve Frozen - Pork Operation - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, no temporary reserve purchase is initiated when a third - level early warning is issued; it may be initiated when a second - level warning is issued; and it is initiated when a first - level warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. [67] - In case of excessive price increases, in the normal market cycle, reserve release is initiated when a second - level early warning is issued and the release is increased when a first - level warning is issued. In case of special situations like major animal diseases, after a first - level warning, releases are concentrated in key periods. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than the central level. [67]