Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, precious metals are expected to maintain a high - level, volatile, and bullish trend. The core drivers are the Fed's policy path, geopolitical risks, and physical demand support. Gold jewelry demand may recover during the traditional consumption peak season in October, and investors' willingness to allocate gold and related products may increase. The prices of gold and silver may rise if the Fed continues to send loose signals or geopolitical conflicts escalate; otherwise, strong US economic data and rising inflation may suppress their performance. Technically, the core fluctuation range of COMEX gold is 3550 - 4000 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 810 - 900 yuan per gram for Shanghai gold), and that of silver is 42 - 50 US dollars per ounce (corresponding to 9800 - 11800 yuan per kilogram for Shanghai silver). [4][76] Summary of Relevant Chapters 1. Review of the Futures Market - **Price Trends of Gold and Silver**: In Q3 2025, the precious metals market first fluctuated and then soared. From July to August, prices consolidated at the bottom, and in September, they rose sharply due to the Fed's interest rate cut, rising risk - aversion, and capital inflows. As of September 27, New York gold reached a high of 3824.6 US dollars per ounce and closed at 3789.8 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai gold hit a record high of 865.28 yuan per gram and closed at 862.50 yuan per gram. New York silver broke through 45 US dollars per ounce, reaching a high of 46.945 US dollars per ounce and closing at 46.365 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai silver exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a high of 10974 yuan per kilogram and closing at 10936 yuan per kilogram. Since September, the cumulative increase of silver has exceeded 10%. [3][7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The current gold - silver ratio is about 82 (domestic) and 85 (overseas), higher than the historical average, indicating that silver is undervalued and has substantial room for a catch - up. Historically, a high gold - silver ratio is followed by silver's catch - up, and the recent strong performance of silver reflects this repair logic. [14] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed's September Meeting**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. Most officials expect two more 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, but there are differences among officials. The removal of Fed governor Cook by President Trump has added political and legal uncertainties to the Fed's decision - making. [20][21] - **Geopolitical Risks**: In Q3, the Middle East conflict intensified, and the Israel - Houthi armed conflict affected trade. The Russia - Ukraine conflict entered a new stage, with the US changing its stance and increasing military aid to Ukraine, and the confrontation between the two sides becoming more entrenched. Geopolitical uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion and may drive up the prices of precious metals. [23][26] - **Inflation**: In August, US PPI data showed a slowdown in inflation, while CPI data indicated that inflation was still controllable. PPI's slowdown provided room for the Fed to cut interest rates, and CPI's stability reduced the risk of policy reversal. [28][29] - **US Economic Signals**: The Q2 2025 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, mainly driven by consumer spending and net exports. However, the labor market was weak, with August's non - farm payrolls falling far short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and employment structure deteriorating. In the short term, weak employment data increased the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts; in the long term, it may support precious metals. The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, while the non - manufacturing PMI expanded. The 8 - month PCE price index was in line with expectations, and the market expected further rate cuts by the Fed. [31][34][36] - **Real Interest Rates and the US Dollar Index**: In Q3 2025, the 10 - year real interest rate and inflation expectations declined, and the US dollar index fell and is now fluctuating around 97. [51][52] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals - **Gold**: In Q2 2025, the global gold market had both supply and demand increasing, with the price hitting a record high. Supply totaled 1,249 tons, with mined gold production reaching a quarterly record high and recycled gold supply increasing. Investment demand was the core driver, with gold ETFs having strong inflows for two consecutive quarters, and central bank gold purchases supporting the market. High prices led to a decline in jewelry and technology gold demand. [54] - **Silver**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a slight decline in total demand but a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a supply - demand gap. In 2024, silver supply increased moderately, and demand was structurally differentiated, with industrial demand hitting a record high. In 2025, total supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, total demand to drop slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, and the supply - demand gap to reach 117.6 million ounces. [58][59] 4. Analysis of Positions, Inventories, and Seasonality - **ETF Positions**: In August 2025, global gold ETFs had inflows for the third consecutive month, with Western markets leading. North America had the largest inflow, followed by Europe, while Asia had outflows. [62] - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rise in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold, while the non - commercial net long position of silver futures decreased, suggesting a rise in the market's bearish sentiment towards silver. [69] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of September 24, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories increased compared to the end of Q2 2025, while SHFE gold inventory increased and silver inventory decreased. [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price in this quarter showed an overall range - bound oscillation. It is expected that in the future, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will continue to fluctuate. If relevant policies are introduced to reverse market expectations, the valuation center may gradually move up [2][49][50]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, nickel showed an overall range - bound trend with reduced price fluctuations. Nickel futures prices basically oscillated within a price range of 126,000 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower end [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable upward trend after hitting bottom. As of late September 2025, SHFE inventory was 29,834 tons, and LME inventory was 230,586 tons [11]. - **China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Imports from the Philippines**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines by China shows seasonal fluctuations. As of September 19, 2025, the port inventory was 9.7606 million tons [15][16]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak oscillation trend since this year, closing at around 123,060 yuan/ton in late September [20]. - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: As of September 25, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 29,130 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel Iron Import Volume and Price**: On September 25, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 960 yuan/nickel [28]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless Steel Price and Position**: Stainless steel futures prices showed an oscillating pattern, with an oscillation range of 12,200 yuan/ton - 13,400 yuan/ton [32]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on September 19, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 446,100 tons and 147,300 tons respectively [35]. - **Power and Energy Storage Battery Production**: Relevant data on the production of power and energy storage batteries are presented in the report, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [40]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production**: Relevant data on new energy vehicle production are presented in the report, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [45]. 3.3 Outlook - The nickel price in this quarter showed an overall range - bound oscillation. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were relatively stable. LME nickel inventory was high and continued to accumulate rapidly. The nickel ore market had firm prices. The nickel iron market had weak trading and prices, oscillating in the bottom range. The nickel sulfate price has recently rebounded, and whether there will be medium - term improvement remains to be further observed. The fundamentals of stainless steel have not improved significantly. Currently, the peak season is not prosperous, downstream demand is weak, and the inventories in Wuxi and Foshan are at high levels but have decreased from the peak [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the ferroalloy market experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend, with prices rising first and then falling. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. In summer, entering the peak season of coal - power, coal prices stabilized and rose, reversing the expectation of continuous decline in coal - power prices, which led to a sharp increase in ferroalloy prices. However, after the price increase, production profit increased significantly. Due to the over - capacity in the expansion cycle, production recovered rapidly. With demand stable or having a weakening expectation, supply growth exceeded demand, causing the market price to decline later [3]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, for manganese - silicon, the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. Manganese ore has no bottleneck, and the manganese - silicon smelting capacity is severely over - capacity. The probability of successful industry joint price protection in the capacity expansion cycle is low. For silicon - iron, the price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. It is expected to be difficult for prices to rise or fall significantly. Overall, the ferroalloy trend in the fourth quarter is limited, and prices may fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Manganese - silicon: In the third quarter of 2025, the price of manganese - silicon futures first rose and then fell. As of September 26, the main contract rose from 5638 yuan/ton to 6414 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5848 yuan/ton, with a 3.65% increase. In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand of manganese - silicon changed from surplus to shortage in the first half of the year and then back to surplus in the third quarter. The cost increase due to the peak season of coal - power in July led to a price increase, with a slight adjustment in August and overall fluctuations in September [5]. - Silicon - iron: As of September 26, the main contract of silicon - iron futures rose 5.91% to 5660 yuan/ton in the third quarter. The price decline in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decline in coal - power prices. After June, the supply reduction of thermal coal and the recovery of thermal - power demand led to a price rebound. In August, the market worried about the end of the peak - season benefits of coal - power, causing the price to decline. In September, coal prices stabilized, and the silicon - iron trend was highly correlated with coal prices [10]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - There were various policy events in 2025, including changes in manganese ore supply due to natural disasters and shipping disruptions, anti - dumping measures imposed by some countries on Chinese steel products, and local policies in China to promote the high - quality development of the ferroalloy industry, such as the implementation plan in Ningxia and the ecological environmental protection inspection [17][19][21]. Manganese - Silicon Supply - In 2025, the manganese - silicon industry reduced production in the early stage, and production increased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. In August, the national comprehensive start - up rate was 44.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. The output was 909,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94%. The production profit was poor in general, with a short - term profit in July and a decline in August and September. The manganese - silicon industry has serious over - capacity, and the northern region has high new - capacity investment this year. Manganese ore changed from shortage to surplus, with imports reaching a record high in August. The inventory of manganese ore is currently low but is expected to increase in supply, and it has no support for the manganese - silicon price [23][25][32]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - Manganese - silicon demand is mainly in the steel - making industry, and the demand was stable in 2025 but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Although the production of steel products such as rebar increased in August, the terminal real - estate market is poor, and there is a possibility of reducing rebar production to relieve the pressure of over - supply, which is negative for manganese - silicon demand [39][40]. Silicon - Iron Production Profit - From January to May 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of silicon - iron decreased. The profit was good before March, but turned negative in April and May. After June, the profit was generally poor, with a slight recovery in July and a decline again in August, and a slight repair in September [44]. Silicon - Iron Output - Due to the overall price increase in the third quarter, the output of silicon - iron continued to rise. In August, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.43%, an increase of 5.61% compared with July. The output was 493,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.43% [47]. Silicon - Iron Demand - In 2025, the export of silicon - iron decreased year - on - year. In the third quarter, with the increase in domestic prices, export profit decreased, and exports were relatively weak. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for silicon - iron, recovered. The production of steel products increased in 2025, but the production of crude steel decreased. The price of silicon - iron is expected to fluctuate around energy prices in the fourth quarter [50][53][54]. Summary and Outlook - The ferroalloy market in the third quarter experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the manganese - silicon price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the silicon - iron price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. Overall, the ferroalloy trend is limited, and prices may fluctuate [56][57].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the fourth quarter, with new cotton hitting the market, the expected output is over 7.3 million tons, subjecting Zhengzhou cotton futures to significant hedging pressure. Consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was lackluster, but the overall industrial chain showed slight improvement with gradually decreasing finished - product inventories. The price range is expected to be between 12,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [1][38]. - Internationally, macro - factors still bring great uncertainty to the cotton market. The Fed may cut interest rates within the year, potentially supporting US cotton prices. Fundamentally, the supply of cotton in the Northern Hemisphere will gradually increase in the fourth quarter, while consumption remains stable, with no major fundamental contradictions. The operating range of US cotton is expected to be between 60 - 75 cents/pound [2][38]. - The recommended operation strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is mainly band trading [3][39]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a trend of weakening in a range and then breaking down. The price of the main contract was roughly between 13,450 - 14,350 yuan/ton. Influenced by factors such as good cotton growth in Xinjiang, extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the price fluctuated [5]. - In the third quarter of 2025, ICE US cotton showed a weakening trend in a range, with the main contract price between 65.8 - 69.50 cents/pound. Affected by factors like high Brazilian cotton exports, Indian tariff exemptions, and changes in US weather and USDA reports, the price fluctuated [6]. b) Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: Most institutions predict an increase in the cotton planting area in the 2024/25 season, mainly driven by the expansion in Xinjiang. The comprehensive meteorological conditions in the cotton - growing areas were favorable, laying a good foundation for an increase in yield. Different institutions have different yield forecasts, with the report's estimate ranging from 7.3 - 7.7 million tons. The final yield depends on the weather during the harvest period, but a bumper harvest is likely [8][10][11]. - **Seed - cotton Purchase Price**: As of September 22, 2025, the average boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was about 83.2%. The expected purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton is 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and the current purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton is around 7.2 yuan/kg. Zhengzhou cotton futures above 14,000 yuan/ton face significant hedging pressure [14]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 40% increase from the previous month but a 51.6% decrease year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year - on - year decrease. Future imports are expected to show a short - term month - on - month slow increase and a long - term low - level oscillation, with an annual import volume of about 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [19]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: Since September, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures has affected textile enterprises' sentiment, with cotton yarn prices dropping by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. However, the decline in cotton yarn prices was smaller than that of cotton, widening the cotton - yarn price spread and slightly improving textile enterprises' profits. The operating rate of textile enterprises did not rise significantly during the peak season, while that of weaving enterprises increased relatively significantly. Since August, the finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises have been decreasing [21][25][27]. c) International Market Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September cotton supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are expected to increase, while the beginning and ending inventories will decrease. The ending inventory will reach a four - year low [30]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. There are still two interest - rate meetings in 2025, and most Fed members expect two more interest - rate cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year. The expectation of interest - rate cuts may lead to a weaker US dollar, which may support US cotton prices [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern. The low inventory in cold storage supported the market, and the demand recovered during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. The market generally believed that the number of bagged apples in the new season was slightly lower than the previous season. The purchase price of early - maturing apples in the Northwest was higher than last year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji was likely to be higher. The market might realize the previous减产 expectations, and the later driving logic would shift to the demand side. The current market might be at the top range, and it was recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, the main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern. The remaining inventory in cold storage was low, and the supply was concentrated in Shandong. The market generally believed that the number of bagged apples in the new season was slightly lower than the previous season. The purchase price of early - maturing apples in the Northwest was higher than last year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji was likely to be higher, keeping the market at a high - level shock [7]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Low Inventory at the End of Clearance**: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The cold - storage supply was mainly concentrated in Shandong, with mostly poor - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the new - season apples were gradually being unbagged, with small fruit sizes, and farmers had high price expectations [11]. - **Good Transaction during Festival Stocking**: The demand recovered during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 98.24%. The de - stocking progress of apples in the origin would only be significantly improved when the price dropped significantly [14][18]. - **Decrease in Fresh Apple Imports in August**: In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.33%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.99%. It was expected that the import volume in Q4 would decline [21]. - **Recovery of Fresh Apple Exports in Q3**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. It was expected that the export volume in Q4 2025 would increase quarter - on - quarter, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [24]. - **Seasonal Fruits Boost Apple Demand**: Seasonal fruits were gradually leaving the market, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The price of apples was affected by substitute fruits such as pears and seasonal fruits. The price of apples in 2025 showed a trend of rising first and then falling, remaining at a high level overall [27][29]. - **Stable and Strong Price of High - Quality Goods**: The current origin price was stable and strong, higher than the same period last year. The storage profit of high - quality goods in Qixia was 0.29 yuan per catty. The sales of cold - storage apples were approaching the end, and the later market fluctuations were limited. Farmers had high price expectations for the new - season apples, and the enthusiasm for storage might increase [34]. - **Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption**: According to five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases were mostly concentrated in the second half of the year, including September, November, and December. The months with a high probability of price decreases were April, August, and October [37][38]. - **New - Season Apples Being Unbagged**: The new - season late - maturing apples in the production areas were gradually entering the unbagging stage. The fruit size of late - maturing apples in Shaanxi was small, and the purchase was expected to start around the National Day. The purchase price of new - season late - maturing Fuji in Shaanxi might be higher than the same period last year [40]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern in Q3. The low inventory supported the market, and the demand recovered during the festivals. The market might realize the previous减产 expectations, and the later driving logic would shift to the demand side. The current market might be at the top range, and it was recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44][45].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货纸浆季报 低位运行，等待需求企稳 纸浆 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 三季度纸浆期货先涨后跌，当前维持低位震荡。 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，我国 2025 年 8 月份针叶 浆进口量 61.39 万吨，环比减少 5.01%，同比下滑 10.12%；1-8 月针叶浆累计进 口量 574.05 万吨，同比增加 1.43%。阔叶浆方面，8 月阔叶浆进口量 125.77 万 吨，环比减少 6.92%，同比下滑 1.43%；1-8 月累计进口量 1115.21 万吨，同比 增加 10.71%。整体来看，进口量表现平缓，补充国内木浆供应。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 港口库存方面，国内纸浆港口库存前期创新高后逐渐转降。据卓创资讯数据 监测显示，保定地区、天津港、日照港、青岛港、常熟港、上海港、高栏港及南 沙港等中国主要地区及港口周度纸浆库存量 198.96 万吨，周度环比下跌 4.49%， 由涨转跌。 据 UTIPULP 数据显示，2025 年 8 月欧洲化学纸浆消费量 70.08 万吨， 同比上升 2.35%；欧洲化学纸浆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The later supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the spot price will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal consumption and secondary fattening may bring about a phased rebound, but there is limited room for a significant increase. The futures market is currently in a state of overall premium, and the outlook is bearish with a volatile trend [1][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Since the third quarter, the live pig spot market has mainly declined. The spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, dropped from a high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the quarter to nearly 12.5 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 3 yuan. The futures market experienced a round of anti - involution trading in August, but due to the under - performance of relevant policies, the premium the high the high premium, the market entered a stage of continuous premium squeezing. The large supply of live pigs determined the weak pig prices. Although there are national policy expectations for capacity regulation in the futures market, the impact on listed contracts is limited, making it difficult to maintain the high premium [3]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis of Live Pigs 2.1 Piglet Data Indicates High Later - Stage Slaughter Pressure - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a peak of 40.8 million in November 2024 and then fluctuated downward. According to commercial data, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises continued to increase from November 2024 to June 2025 and began to decrease in July and August. Based on the impact cycle of reproductive sows on slaughter, the domestic live pig supply potential will remain sufficient until April 2026 and may slightly decrease in May and June. In September, the piglet price fell below the cost line, and with the government's guidance for large - scale enterprises to reduce production capacity, the number of reproductive sows may decline, which will help ease the supply pressure after July next year. From the piglet birth data, the piglet birth volume increased month - on - month from the beginning of the year to May, and there was some differentiation among commercial institutions from June to August, but the decrease was not significant. This means that the slaughter pressure will gradually increase until November 2025 and will not significantly decrease until February 2026 [5]. 2.2 Feed Sales Confirm the Increase in Pig Inventory - From March to August 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed were generally stable with a slight increase. The month - on - month growth rate this year was slightly lower than that in 2024 but better than that in 2023. The month - on - month growth rate of finishing pig feed in July and August 2025 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023 and 2024, which may be related to the decrease in secondary fattening. Overall, the social pig inventory is increasing, but the marginal increase is slightly lower than last year [8]. 2.3 Secondary Fattening is Restrained and the Utilization Rate of Retailers' Fattening Pens Declines - The average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country has entered the seasonal weight - gain stage since September, currently at around 124.5 kg, still at a moderately high level year - on - year. Retailers' average weight has been increasing since February and reached a high in September, significantly higher year - on - year. The average weight of large - scale farms decreased continuously from June and rebounded slightly in September, but the increase was not significant. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in September was at a moderate level, indicating sufficient fat pig supply, which may be due to retailers' passive extension of the breeding time. In recent years, secondary fattening has been relatively rational, mainly with rolling operations. Due to policy guidance, leading enterprises will continue to control the sales of pigs for secondary fattening, while small and medium - sized enterprises may be less affected. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a low level since August, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a new round of secondary fattening replenishment after the long holiday [10][12]. 2.4 Slaughter Volume Increases Significantly but Demand is Limited - According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national live pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting the increase in domestic live pig supply. The slaughter gross profit margin has significantly rebounded since July and reached a relatively high level in September. The utilization rate of frozen - product storage capacity has continuously increased in September, cross - verifying with the low fresh - sales rate, indicating weak terminal consumption and the inability to effectively absorb the increased supply [14]. 2.5 The Industry Enters the Loss Zone and There is Limited Room for Further Cost Reduction - Since the third quarter of 2025, the pig price has gradually weakened, and the pig - breeding profit has deteriorated. As the national average price fell below 13 yuan, the breeding profit of the self - breeding and self - fattening model entered the loss zone. Recently, the piglet price has declined, and the expected slaughter cost of pigs fattened with purchased piglets has also dropped rapidly. As of late September, the expected slaughter cost of purchased piglets has dropped to 12.15 yuan. The prices of soybean meal and corn are currently at low levels, and there is limited room for further reduction in feed costs. The low pig price will continue to suppress profits in the future [19]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - Based on the number of piglet births, the period from October to February next year is when the domestic live pig slaughter pressure will be realized, especially in October and November when the month - on - month increase in slaughter is relatively large, and it will coincide with the weak demand period after the long holiday, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Cross - verification of feed production and sales data shows that the month - on - month growth rate of finishing feed sales in July and August is good, indicating a gradual increase in inventory. In terms of the slaughter rhythm, large - scale groups have accelerated the pace of reducing the average slaughter weight in response to national policies, while the average slaughter weight of retailers' pigs is still relatively high, reflecting slow digestion of large pigs by retailers. On the demand side, overall consumption will increase in the fourth quarter, but its impact on prices depends on the matching degree of future supply. In addition, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a new round of secondary fattening after the seasonal low in October. Overall, the later supply is sufficient, the live pig spot price will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the futures market is expected to be bearish with a volatile trend [23].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After two months of consolidation, the silver market saw a breakthrough in September, with both domestic and international prices hitting multi - year highs. The strong upward trend is driven by multiple factors including macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and gold - silver ratio repair [2][5]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts is strengthening, which provides a solid foundation for the rise of precious metals including silver [11][12]. - The silver market in 2025 is expected to have a supply - demand gap, and the continuous strength of industrial demand, supply - demand imbalance, and low inventory support the long - term price elasticity and allocation value of silver [17][18]. - The current gold - silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Looking ahead, loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in the inflation situation should be noted. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to key price levels [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, after two months of consolidation, the silver market had a breakthrough. The New York silver price exceeded $43 per ounce and reached a high of $44.395 per ounce on September 23, with a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The domestic Shanghai silver also reached a record high of 10,359 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of over 35% [2][5]. - The strong rise in silver prices is due to multiple factors. Macroeconomically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and geopolitical tensions boost silver. Industrially, the demand from sectors like photovoltaics, new - energy vehicles, and semiconductors is strong, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. The current gold - silver ratio is high, indicating undervaluation of silver [2][5]. 3.2 Macro Policy Expectations Driving Precious Metals Up - Economic indicators show a significant slowdown in the US labor market. In August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The inflation data shows some stickiness, and the PPI is in deflation. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 soared to 263,000, heightening concerns about economic slowdown [11]. - Market expectations for the Fed's continued interest rate cuts are strengthening. The September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. As of September 22, the CME data shows a 91.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October and an 80.6% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December, which supports the rise of precious metals [12]. 3.3 Tight Supply - Demand Structure of Silver and Strong Industrial Demand - In 2024, global silver supply increased moderately. Global mined silver production was 819.7 million ounces, up 0.9% year - on - year, and recycled silver supply reached 193.9 million ounces, up 6% year - on - year. The total demand decreased by 3% to 1.16 billion ounces, with a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand reached a record high, especially in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields [17]. - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, and total demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 117.6 million ounces. Excluding ETPs, the physical gap will widen to 187.6 million ounces. The supply - demand gap and low inventory support the price of silver in the long - term [18]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Repair and Enhanced Silver's Catch - up Momentum - The current domestic and international gold - silver ratios are about 82 and 85 respectively, significantly higher than the historical averages of the past 50 years (63) and 20 years (70), indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Historically, when the gold - silver ratio is high, silver usually lags behind and then catches up. In the current context of interest rate cut expectations and industrial demand recovery, silver's financial and commodity attributes resonate, attracting capital inflows [20]. 3.5 Future Operation Suggestions - Loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in inflation data should be noted [3][25]. - It is recommended to buy on dips, focus on the effectiveness of support around $40 per ounce, and set upward targets at around $45 per ounce and $48 per ounce. Attention should be paid to controlling positions and closely monitoring macro - data and capital trends [3][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, price data slightly deteriorated, with PPI improving but CPI under pressure, indicating ongoing downward pressure on market prices. Credit and social financing data declined across the board, and government bond net financing remained an important support for the social financing scale. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, the decline in rebar production this week was basically flat, and the space for a continued significant decline in production is limited. In terms of demand, the consumption of building materials improved during the peak season, while the consumption of plates decreased. With the supply of raw materials increasing, the real demand for furnace materials being high under the background of steel mill复产, and downstream increasing inventory appropriately, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with the decline narrowing. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, and M0 increased by 11.7% year-on-year [8]. - Policy information: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission published an article emphasizing efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not provided in the content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Money Supply - The SHIBOR on September 19, 2025, was 1.5470, up from 1.5280 on August 19, 2025, with a bearish outlook due to the rising interest rate [17]. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - As of a certain date, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.62%, a monthly decrease of 2.11%, and a yearly decrease of 2.11%. The prices and their changes of other commodities such as hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are also provided [23]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on September 19, 2025, was 58 yuan/ton, showing different values on other dates [26]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - Not provided in the content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - Not provided in the content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China on September 19, 2025, was 83.98%, compared with 83.83% on September 12, 2025 [38]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - Not provided in the content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not provided in the content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not provided in the content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 770.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.064897367 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.002899151 [49]. 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - On September 19, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 206.45 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.025857594 and a year - on - year increase of 0.062915101 [53]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel - Not provided in the content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - Not provided in the content 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not provided in the content 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - Not provided in the content 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - Not provided in the content 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - Not provided in the content 4. Future Outlook - Market price data shows downward pressure, and government bond net financing is an important support for social financing. In terms of rebar fundamentals, supply is expected to remain at a low level, and demand for building materials is improving during the peak season. With raw material supply increasing and cost support, rebar rebounded slightly [73][74].