研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...

国信期货研究所 供需平稳库存去化 螺纹区间震荡 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年6月22日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 中国人民银行发布数据显示，截至2025年5月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元，同比 增长2.3%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。前五个月净投放现金3064亿元。2024年同期防资金空转的政策效应导致的低 基数使得5月M1增速明显回升。 2. 中国人民银行发布数据显示， 5月末，本外币贷款余额270.2万亿元，同比增长6.7%。前五个月人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。分部门看，住 户贷款增加5724亿元，其中，短期贷款减少2624亿元，中长期贷款增加834 ...

2025年6月22日 研究所 主力合约移仓换月，盘面大幅下跌 ——国信期货纸浆周报 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约完成移仓换月。SP2509大幅下跌，周度跌幅1.5%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至6月19日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5946元/吨，较上周下跌0.72%，由稳转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4141元/吨，较上周下跌0.48% ，由涨转跌；进口本色浆周均价5187元/吨，较上周下跌1.61%，跌幅较上期扩大0.86个百分点；进口化机浆周均价3783元/吨，较上周下跌0.92%，跌幅较 上期扩大0.40个百分点。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice ...

研究所 郑糖止跌企稳 偏多思路为主 ——国信期货白糖周报 2025年6月22日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖本周止跌反弹，周度涨幅0.99%。 ICE期糖震荡寻底，周度跌幅1.15%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 2、全国产销情况 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2024/25榨季，5月累计销糖率72.69%，同比加快6.52个百分点。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 3、食糖进口情况 研究所 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2023年 2024年 2025年 5月进口35万吨，同比增加32万吨。ICE期糖7月合约17 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report: Stronger Oscillation, Awaiting New Season Guidance" and is dated June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. With less inventory in cold storage and declining downstream demand, the supply and demand are in a stalemate. The new season's apples are in the early stage of bagging, and the fruit - hanging issues in the production areas need to be verified by the initial bagging results. Short - term operations are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillation mindset [35] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a stronger oscillation [7] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage remaining volume in Shandong production area is 657,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi production area is 291,700 tons [12][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. Apples are in the off - season, and the listing of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, reducing market demand and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants [17] - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 50,000 tons, a 28.57% decrease from the previous month and a 16.67% decrease from the same period last year. The second - quarter export volume of fresh apples in 2025 is expected to decline [19] - As of June 20, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, striped apples are 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchant's slice - red apples are 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples are 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the third - grade merchant's goods are 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of 70 apples is 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin. Sellers sell according to the market, there are few buyers, and the trading volume is low [31]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply-demand Margin Improves, Coking Coal and Coke Rebound Slightly - Guoxin Futures" [2] - Report Date: June 22, 2025 [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal and coke has tightened due to environmental protection and accidents, and the inventory pressure at the Sino-Mongolian border affects the low customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port. The demand side shows that the coke enterprise's operation has declined slightly, while the steel mill's hot metal output has increased slightly month-on-month. The supply-demand relationship has improved marginally, leading to a slight rebound in the market. It is recommended to conduct short-term operations [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Double-Coke Market Review - The report reviews the market of double-coke (coking coal and coke) main contracts for the week, but specific data and details are not provided in the given content [11] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Overview - **Production**: As of this Friday, the operating rate of sample coal washing plants was 61.34%, a week-on-week increase of 3.98%. The output of upstream coal mines decreased marginally, while the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly week-on-week [16]. - **Imports**: As of the end of April 2025, China's total imports of coking coal were 36.327 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.31%, changing from an increase to a decrease. Imports from Russia, Canada, and the United States increased, while imports from Mongolia, the main importing country, decreased year-on-year, mainly due to weak domestic demand and poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm [20]. - **Port Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory at six ports was 3.0331 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 87,100 tons [25]. - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Mysteel surveyed that the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide was 6.6565 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 38,800 tons. Coke enterprises were in the red and consumed in-plant inventory, leading to a decline in coking coal inventory [30]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Mysteel surveyed that the coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 7.7466 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,800 tons. Steel mills purchased as needed to keep in-plant inventory stable [33]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: From January to May 2025, the national coke output was 207.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In May, the coke output was 42.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [38]. - **Coke Enterprise Operation**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises surveyed by Steel Union was 73.42%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%. Coke enterprise profits declined, operation decreased month-on-month, but the absolute level remained high [43]. - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of Mysteel's independent coke enterprise full sample was 809,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 63,800 tons. Downstream purchasers bought as needed, supply contracted, and coke enterprise inventory decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [48]. - **Port Inventory**: The total port coke inventory was 2.0311 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [52]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Mysteel surveyed that the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 86,400 tons. Blast furnace operation remained stable. During the off-season, downstream had no motivation to replenish inventory and actively consumed in-plant inventory, leading to a decline in in-plant coke inventory [57]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Mysteel surveyed that the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 57,000 tons. Hot metal output remained flat, providing short-term support for the actual consumption of furnace materials [62]. 3.4 Double-Coke Future Outlook - The supply side continues to tighten due to environmental protection and accidents. The inventory pressure at the Sino-Mongolian border affects the low customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port. The demand side shows that the coke enterprise's operation has declined slightly, while the steel mill's hot metal output has increased slightly month-on-month. The supply-demand relationship has improved marginally, leading to a slight rebound in the market. It is recommended to conduct short-term operations [66].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

供应缩减预期 甲醇增仓上行 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 200 250 300 200 300 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 2023-02-01 2023-03-01 2023-04-01 2023-05-01 2023-06-01 2023-07-01 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-10-01 2023-11-01 2023-12-01 2024-01-01 2024-02-01 2024-03-01 2024-04-01 2024-05-01 2024-06-01 甲醇主力合约MA2509截止收盘在2529元/吨，周涨幅6.35%，增仓12万手，持仓88万手，港口基差大幅上行约100元。 --国信期货甲醇周报 2025年6月22日 目 录 CONTENTS 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 400 500 1月2日 1月10日 1月18日 1月26日 2月3日 2月11日 2月19日 2月27日 3月6日 3月14日 3月22日 3月30日 4月8日 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the past week, the live hog spot market rebounded steadily, the futures market was volatile and strong, the basis weakened, and the spread between LH9 and LH11 was volatile and strong. The spot market was supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts, the average weight continued to decline, and the second - fattening significantly shrank, providing strong support for the peak - season contract LH09. Fundamentally, the obvious month - on - month increase in the number of fertile sows in April and May continued to suppress the LH2603 contract. In the short and medium term, the monthly month - on - month increase in the number of sample piglets born from January to May means that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited. It is expected that the spot market will be volatile and weak in the short term. For futures, the LH09 contract corresponds to the peak consumption season. Although the theoretical slaughter volume will still increase, due to policy - guided weight reduction and restricted sales of second - fattened hogs, the average slaughter weight may be lower, partially alleviating the pressure of the slaughter volume. The futures market has certain support for now. The operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude, and continue to pay attention to the rhythm of weight reduction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market rebounded steadily last week, with the futures market being volatile and strong. The basis weakened, and the LH9 - LH11 spread was volatile and strong. The spot was supported by farmers' resistance, and the decline in average weight and reduction in second - fattening supported the LH09 contract. The increase in fertile sows in April and May suppressed the LH2603 contract. The increase in piglet numbers from January to May indicates growing slaughter volume. Consumption is in the off - season, and the spot is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The LH09 contract has support due to potential weight reduction, and the operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - **Live Hog Futures Market**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot Market**: The spot market rebounded steadily last week, with limited demand support due to the off - season [7]. - **Live Hog Spot: Basis after Regional and Weight Adjustment**: On June 19, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2507 at 13255, data on standard pig prices, weight ranges, regional premiums and discounts, and basis in different provinces are presented. For example, in Henan, the standard pig price was 14.38, and the basis was 1125 [25]. - **Live Hog Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot: Regional Price Difference**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Change in Fertile Sows**: The number of fertile sows increased significantly month - on - month in April and May, which continued to suppress the LH2603 contract [7]. - **Change in Piglets**: The number of sample piglets born from January to May increased month - on - month, indicating that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow later [7]. - **Verification of Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Slaughter Situation**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Pork Consumption Situation**: Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited [7]. - **Frozen Meat Market Dynamics**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Cost and Profit**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations**: In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not started for the third - level early warning, considered for the second - level, and started for the first - level. For excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are started for the second - level early warning and increased for the first - level. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level early warning, releases are mainly concentrated in key periods [73]. - **Multi - caliber Comparison**: No specific content provided in the given text.

研究所 粮源继续收紧 后市震荡走强为主 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年06月20日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货震荡上涨，期货偏强震荡，基差略走弱，受进口玉米拍卖影响，C7-9价差小幅下跌。基本面来看，目前基 层余粮消耗将尽，上量持续偏低，5月进口玉米及替代品仍然偏少，且跟踪进口买船亦无明显增量，后期整体供应压力不大； 消费端来看，饲料产量同比维持增长，但小麦-玉米价差偏低，对玉米在饲料领域的使用有一定挤占效果；深加工来看，淀粉 加工利润受到副产品走强提振有所修复，行业开机率略有增加。库存来看，南方港口内贸玉米有所增加，北港玉米库存继续下 降，饲料企业及深加工企业原料库存亦走低，整体库存压力继续减轻。总体来看，玉米供需格局趋于改善，后期料震荡走强。 操作上，偏多思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.玉米期货市场变化 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.淀粉期货市场变化 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建 ...