国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 补库需求支撑 玉米偏强震荡 玉米 2026 年 2 月 27 日 主要结论 从国际市场来看，2025/26 年美国、乌克兰玉米产量增加，南美巴西、阿根 廷玉米产量相对稳定，全球玉米供需面总体偏宽松，但由于美国大豆玉米比价偏 高，26/27 年美国玉米播种面积有所减少，可能对国际玉米带来炒作题材。国内 方面，2025/26 年玉米增产明显，但华北玉米质量较差，使得用粮企业的需求更 多地转向东北玉米，较好地承接了东北玉米增产的压力。目前整体玉米售粮进度 较快，有利于减轻春季上市压力。进口来看，25/26 年度饲料谷物进口预计仍处 于偏低水平，但阶段性进口会形成一定补充。需求端来看，养殖行业持续亏损， 生猪、鸡蛋行业产能将下降，饲料需求短期有韧性，但未来趋势偏向悲观。深加 工方面，淀粉加工利润不佳，开机率低位，酒精消化劣质玉米为主。中下游库存 行为来看，经过前期消耗后，用粮企业有一定补库需求，但在整体需求预期不佳 的背景下，难有持续大幅提高库存水平的动力。综合来看，玉米市场短期下游补 库对市场形成一定支撑，但后期仍需关注北方升温后售粮节奏、替代谷物进口规 模及政策拍卖的 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪月报 现实供应压力仍偏大 生猪市场承压 生猪 2026 年 2 月 27 日 主要结论 从长期来看，25 年四季度能繁母猪继续下降，截至 12 月达到 3961 万头， 但这一产能下降程度仍低于之前有关部门的调控目标。中期来看，根据仔猪出生 数量推算，到二季度结束仍是国内生猪出栏压力兑现的阶段，后期理论出栏量总 体维持高位格局。从饲料产销数量的交叉验证来看，10-12 月仔猪料销量环比下 降，对应于 4 月后的出栏环比减少，但整体下降幅度较小；同时，育肥猪料销售 12 月环比下降，主要是前期大猪出栏导致存栏有所缩减。历史对比来看，饲料 环比下降主要是季节性特征，但其降幅都低于历史同期水平，预示着后期猪价季 节性强度受限。需求方面，目前处于节后淡季，终端需求支撑有限；但在猪价低 位、育肥舍利用率不高的情景下，后期潜在的二育及分割品入库的需求是可能出 现的支撑因素。从活体库存来看，经过长假的压栏，目前出栏均重处于高位，大 猪供应压力仍有待消化。操作上，近端以偏弱震荡对待。远月有存产能预期，但 供应收缩力度较有限，宽幅震荡中把握低位阶段性多配机会。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货蛋白粕月报 蛋白粕 南美天气或有溢价空间 美豆偏强震荡延续 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国际方面，蛋白粕方面，国际方面，3月南美天气仍有一定的炒作的题材， 巴西中部及北部地区的降雨可能影响收割进度，而巴西南部地区以及阿根廷大 部分地区的旱情也将引起市场的重视。巴西大豆尽管丰产预期明显，但质量堪 忧。未来一个月，巴西及阿根廷大豆产量存在下调的可能。由于巴西农民种植 收益下滑，这使得巴西大豆升贴水下跌空间受限。3月南美大豆产区天气或有 溢价炒作的可能。 进入 3 月份，美豆市场进入新旧年度共振期，旧作物年度出口与压榨需求 依然是市场关注的焦点。目前美豆出口已经完成 USDA 预估的 80%，因此 USDA 继续下调美豆出口可能性下降，由于非中国地区采购增加明显，这使得美豆出 口未来有上调的可能。此外中美经贸关系的进一步走向也会对美豆有所提振。 相对而言，压榨需求依然向好。美豆库存偏紧的局面或继续。当前市场对于美 豆新年度种植面积增加的多寡仍有分歧，未来年度由于出口需求的恢复，美豆 库存增长有限，这对美豆有所提振，短期 CBOT 大豆在 1150 美分/蒲式耳附近 震荡，不排除 ...

贵金属 贵金属马年强势开局 结构牛市警惕高位波动 2026 年 2 月 25 日 主要结论 / 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属专题报告 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2026 年春节长假期间，海外市场正常交易，风险事件密集落地，贵金属走 出先抑后扬、波动加剧的行情，整体强势格局清晰。假期初期，美伊谈判释放阶 段性积极信号，避险情绪降温带动贵金属小幅回调。随着谈判陷入僵局、美国关 税政策遭遇司法裁决后快速重构，地缘风险与贸易摩擦担忧同步升温，避险买盘 大规模回流，推动金银快速拉升，铂钯同步跟随板块波动。长假结束后，国内市 场迎来节后首个交易日，内外盘联动效应强化，国内贵金属大幅补涨，全线收高。 截至 2 月 24 日收盘，沪金主力合约大幅上涨 3.52%，报 1150.50 元/克；沪银主 力合约暴涨 12.84%，报 22327 元/千克。铂族金属市场跟随贵金属板块同步走强。 广期所铂金主力合约上涨 5.54%，报 551.85 元/克；钯金主力合约上涨 4.57%， 报 438.45 元/克。 综合地缘局势、贸易政策、美联储动向与资金面判断，贵金属市场或呈现高 位偏强震荡格局，短期波动加剧但 ...

供需双弱 甲醇窄幅波动 --国信期货甲醇周报 2026年2月8日 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 甲醇期现货价格及价差走势 -150.0 -50.0 50.0 150.0 250.0 350.0 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 2026-01-01 2026-02-01 基差 华东现货 期货价格 -4 00 -3 00 -2 00 -1 00 0 100 200 300 400 500 1月2日 1月10日 1月18日 1月26日 2月3日 2月11日 2月19日 2月27日 3月6日 3月14日 3月22日 3月30日 4月8日 4月16日 4月24日 5月5日 5月13日 5月21日 5月29日 6月6日 6月14 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment is weak, and iron ore is oscillating weakly. The overall supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level, but there are signs of a decline under high inventory pressure. The port and steel mill inventories have increased, and the iron ore supply - demand pressure will increase. The iron ore with weak supply - demand fundamentals will continue to weaken, and the short - term recommendation is to participate with a short - bias [10][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1走势回顾 (Trend Review) - **Iron Ore Futures Main Contract Trend**: The market sentiment is weak, and iron ore is oscillating weakly [10]. - **Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of different types of iron ore powder are provided. For example, PB powder is 768, and its previous price was 804; Super Special powder is 652, and its previous price was 851, etc. [14]. 3.2基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Spread Trend**: The main contract basis is 3.5, 05 - 09 spread is 17.5, pb - super special spread is 116, and barite - pb spread is - 20 [21]. - **Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore strengthened slightly at a low level [22]. 3.3供需分析 (Supply - Demand Analysis) - **Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1,855.4 tons, a slight week - on - week increase, and the supply is at a relatively high level. The domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease. There is a sign of supply decline under high inventory pressure [28]. - **International Ocean Freight**: The iron ore freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 8.3 US dollars/ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.21 US dollars/ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1936 [31]. - **Imported Iron Ore Inventory**: The port inventory is 17,140.71 tons, Australian ore inventory is 7,903.27 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5,536.43 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2,269.4 tons, and trading ore inventory is 11,316.72 tons [34]. - **Steel Mill Iron Ore Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 118.45 tons week - on - week to 17,140.71 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased by 348.05 tons week - on - week to 10,316.64 tons. The available days for steel mills' imported iron ore increased by 4 days to 31 days. After the pre - Spring Festival active restocking, the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase [38]. - **Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average pig iron production this week was 228.58 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. The pig iron production rebounded slightly but with limited strength. The port clearance volume increased significantly week - on - week, and the steel mills' restocking of iron ore is basically in place [41]. 3.4后市展望 (Outlook) - The iron ore will continue to be weak due to weakening market sentiment and its own weak supply - demand fundamentals. The short - term operation suggestion is to participate with a short - bias [46].

研究所 上方承压 郑糖节前波动区间收窄 ——国信期货白糖周报 2026年2月6日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖下挫后回升，周度跌幅0.38%。 ICE期糖低位震荡，周度跌幅0.14%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 0 5 10 15 20 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 40 60 80 100 120 140 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2、广西、云南销售情况 研究所 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 0 20 160 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 25 30 35 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2 ...

研究所 郑棉转为窄幅震荡 节前资金流出 ——国信期货棉花周报 2026年2月6日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 郑棉本周小幅震荡，周度跌幅0.61%。ICE期棉偏弱震荡，周跌幅2.09%。 1、现货价格 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 2026年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 本周棉花价格指数回落。3128指数较上周下跌171元/吨，2129指数较上周下跌158元/吨。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, CBOT soybeans rose significantly, while the Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high. The domestic rapeseed meal trend was weaker than that of soybean meal. Next week, the technical indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish. In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, but attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in South Mato Grosso. The Argentine drought is still intensifying. The USDA report next week will be a focus. The domestic soybean meal spot may enter a sales slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [6][75][76] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trends This Week - CBOT soybeans rose significantly, initially falling due to the strengthening dollar and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, then rebounding after the US biodiesel policy利好 and Trump's remarks on China's increased soybean purchases. The Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high, pressured by the slump in precious metals and the collective decline of commodities. The domestic rapeseed meal was weaker, with inventory rising as Australian rapeseed entered the crushing process and demand remaining stagnant [6] 2. US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 2% week - on - week but increased by 15% year - on - year. As of January 29, 2026, the export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons. The export to China (mainland) decreased by 18% week - on - week but increased by 113% year - on - year. The proportion of exports to China in the total export volume decreased to 56.5% [13] 3. South American Market - Brazil and Argentina - **Weather and Crop Conditions**: In Brazil, most areas had showers, with varying rainfall in the east. The average temperature was nearly 2°C higher than normal. In Argentina, the western region had showers, while the east was dry, and the average temperature was 1 - 5°C higher than normal. The soybean harvest progress in Paraná, Brazil, was 14%, and in Mato Grosso, the estimated yield was adjusted upwards [20][27] - **Production and Sales Forecast**: StoneX expects Brazil's soybean production to reach a record 1.8 billion tons this year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier predicts Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production to be 48 million tons, with a tendency for further downward adjustment [26][28] - **Export Situation**: Brazil's soybean export volume in February is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than that in January and the same period last year. In the 2025/26 season so far, the EU's soybean import volume has decreased by 13%, with a decrease in the share from the US and Ukraine and a slight increase from Brazil [26][29] 4. Domestic Market - Inventory, Profit, and Consumption - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4082 million tons, with a theoretical crushable period of 25 days. It is expected to be 5.04 million tons by next weekend [41] - **Crush Profit**: The domestic spot and futures crush profits declined significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in soybean meal and soybean oil prices and the increase in import costs [41] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of the 5th weekend (January 31), the domestic soybean meal inventory was 947,000 tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory from imported crushing was 100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [49][55] - **Apparent Consumption**: The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 5th week was 1.8539 million tons, higher than 1.7306 million tons last week [51] Part 2: Market Outlook 1. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal indices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, Dalian soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given in the text [70][71][73] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish [75] - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the Brazilian premium is falling slightly. The Argentine drought continues. The USDA report next week will be a key point. The US soybean may fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 cents per bushel. In the domestic market, the soybean meal spot may enter a slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely fluctuate between 2700 - 2800 yuan per ton [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US soybean oil increased significantly, while the price of Malaysian palm oil declined relatively. Affected by this, the price of domestic oils dropped significantly, with rapeseed oil experiencing the largest decline [6]. - The market anticipates that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decrease, ending the consecutive 10 - month growth trend due to seasonal production decline and increased exports [11]. - The new US 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule has boosted the market's optimistic expectations for the demand outlook of US soybean oil [6]. - Next week, the MPOB and USDA reports are due. The market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect palm oil production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern, while the domestic oil market is weaker and awaits the guidance of the two key reports [62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 3.1.1 Oil Market Review - This week, the US dollar and international crude oil prices dropped at the beginning of the week, putting pressure on US soybean oil. However, after the US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule, the price of US soybean oil soared, with two consecutive days of about 2% growth. On Thursday, international crude oil prices fell sharply, and US soybean oil oscillated at a high level [6]. - The price of Malaysian palm oil declined. At the beginning of the week, a collective plunge in commodities led to panic selling by long - position holders. Although supported by rising surrounding oils and the possible decline in January inventory, it still oscillated within a narrow lower range due to falling international crude oil prices and inventory pressure [6]. - Domestic oils dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of about 3%. Rapeseed oil led the decline due to increased supply pressure after the entry of Australian rapeseed into the crushing process. Subsequently, Dalian soybean oil and Dalian palm oil followed the downward trend. In the following days, the domestic oil market oscillated around the lowest point on Monday [6]. 3.1.2 Recent International Oil Information - In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 14.9% - 17.9%. The production in South Malaysia decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, and the estimated production in Malaysia decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons [10]. - Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January to drop to 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% from the end of December. The production in January is estimated to be 1.62 million tons, a 11.5% decrease from December, and exports are estimated to be 1.42 million tons, a 7.6% increase from December [11]. - Indonesia will ban the export of palm oil waste, aiming to ensure domestic demand and promote energy self - sufficiency [11]. - The US IRS issued the 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule, with a 60 - day public comment period and a hearing scheduled for May 28, 2026. The policy is applicable until December 31, 2029 [12]. - As of December 31, 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.179 billion pounds, a 0.7% increase from the end of November and a 29.2% increase from the end of December 2024, but lower than market expectations [13]. - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol - blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 but has to postpone the plan due to limited ethanol supply [13]. - From February 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the same period last month [13]. 3.1.3 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease, and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease [29]. - Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5,100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; the edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease, and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; the rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease, and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [29]. 3.1.4 Oil Basis Analysis - The report presents the basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and different contract months, showing the basis trends over time [34][37][41]. 3.1.5 Oil - to - Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall oil price trend was soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded [46]. 3.1.6 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil slightly declined, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil had limited fluctuations [49]. 3.2 Part 2: Future Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - The report presents the seasonal indices of domestic and international soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal, showing their price trends and seasonal characteristics throughout the year [54][56][59]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level (Main Contracts)**: For soybean oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined; for palm oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bullish; for rapeseed oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all intertwined [61]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, geopolitical risks are high, and international crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. If the price of international crude oil stays above $60 per barrel, it will boost biodiesel production. The MPOB and USDA reports are due next week, and the market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern. Domestically, the oil market is weaker than the international market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot sales have stagnated, and the futures market mainly follows the international oil market. Capital is leaving the market before the festival, and the market may find support at the lower end of the range, waiting for the guidance of the two key reports [62].