1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current commodity market is in a historical stage of reshaping the global supply - demand balance system. The pricing of key strategic raw materials is being re - evaluated under the influence of global geopolitics, great - power games, and supply - chain restructuring. Financial attributes and medium - long - term policy expectations are the main driving forces [2][7][16]. - The attack on the UAE Global Aluminum's 1.6 - million - ton electrolytic aluminum base in March marked the transition of the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global supply chain from the "risk premium" stage to the "substantial large - scale supply reduction" stage. The market is in a game between the "real industrial shortage" and the "panic of macro - soft sentiment" [3][7][66]. - For the copper market, it maintains an oscillating pattern between macro and industrial aspects. The high global visible inventory and recession concerns put pressure on prices, while the domestic downstream replenishment demand after price corrections provides support. The price of copper is expected to oscillate and resist decline in the second quarter, with a core price fluctuation range of about 90,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [4][9][69]. - Aluminum has become a clear long - allocation core due to the "supply hard - interruption" logic. The supply crisis in the aluminum market is systemic, and the cost and price center of the entire industry chain will be irreversibly raised. Investors should actively seek to layout and use price corrections for batch and light - position buying [4][9][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Macro Main - Line Trend Tracking - The global commodity market is in a stage of reshaping the supply - demand balance. Geopolitical and economic factors have led to inefficiencies, increased costs, and imbalances in global trade. The pricing of strategic resources is being re - evaluated [2][7][16]. - The attack on the UAE aluminum giant has led to about 10% of the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity being in uncertainty, forcing the market to re - evaluate the long - term supply - demand balance. The market is affected by both industrial shortages and macro - level concerns [3][7][66]. - The precious metals sector is in a high - volatility dilemma due to the tug - of - war between tightening expectations and safe - haven needs. The copper market oscillates, and aluminum is a long - allocation core. The market should control positions and seize opportunities in industries with fundamental changes [8][9][69]. - In 2025 - 2026, Trump's policies and global political uncertainties will bring risks. Key strategic resources are at the core of great - power games, and the politicalization of resources will increase supply - chain costs [9][12][21]. 3.2 Commodity Copper Market Observation - Copper has high - volatility characteristics due to the re - pricing of its financial and commodity attributes, as well as supply - chain costs, capital games, and policy uncertainties. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and long - term risk premiums may increase [16][19][20]. - Copper is at the core of global resource games. Its price fluctuations are affected by geopolitics, capital flows, and market sentiment. Supply shortages and increasing demand in emerging fields coexist [20][21][22]. - The copper market shows four characteristics: increased price volatility, intensified great - power games, re - evaluation of strategic value, and intensified capital games. The domestic market has a weak terminal demand and a structural imbalance in the industrial chain [30][33][34]. - The "Working Plan for Steady Growth of the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, aiming to promote the development of the non - ferrous metals industry, which will have a profound impact on the industry pattern [35][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand Hot - Spot Analysis - Copper 3.3.1 Upstream Resources - The supply of copper ore is tightening, with the growth rate of global copper concentrate production being low. China's copper self - sufficiency rate is low, and overseas mine disturbances have a significant impact on supply [37][38][39]. - China's copper industry chain faces a "bottleneck" problem in resources. The supply of copper concentrate and scrap copper is tight, and domestic smelters may reduce production [38][39][52]. - Global copper resource trade and supply - demand are structurally imbalanced. China's copper industry needs to strengthen resource security, optimize the industrial structure, and enhance technological innovation [38][39][42]. 3.3.2 Smelting and Trade - China's refined copper production and sales account for about 50% of the world, but the copper ore self - sufficiency rate is low. The upstream copper ore is highly concentrated, and China has a weak bargaining power in importing resources [43][44]. - The copper supply chain is affected by geopolitical games and trade protectionism. China's copper industry needs structural reform to improve its long - term competitiveness [45][47][53]. - The processing fee of copper concentrate has dropped significantly, indicating a strong bargaining power of global copper miners. The supply of copper concentrate is short, and smelters may reduce production [53][55][58]. 3.3.3 Downstream Consumption - China's copper consumption is undergoing a structural transformation. Traditional investment's contribution to copper consumption is slowing down, while new energy and new infrastructure are promoting copper consumption [59]. - China's copper consumption is expected to remain at a high level for a long time, and the peak may be around 2030. However, China's copper industry is highly dependent on overseas copper concentrate imports [59][60][61]. - The EU and the US have strengthened the strategic importance of copper, and the global supply chain of copper is affected by geopolitical factors. China's commodity industry chain needs to deal with challenges such as weak demand and excess capacity [61][64]. 3.4 Copper Market Outlook - The commodity market is in a stage of reshaping the supply - demand balance. The pricing of strategic resources is affected by geopolitics and great - power games. The market is in a game between industrial shortages and macro - concerns [2][7][66]. - The copper market oscillates, and the short - term core range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton, with a key support at 93,000 yuan/ton. Aluminum is a long - allocation core, and investors should actively seek to layout [4][9][69]. - In the long - term, the re - evaluation logic of strategic resources remains unchanged. Geopolitical games will further highlight the pricing of large - scale assets. The copper price is expected to oscillate and repair in the second quarter [4][9][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2, the precious metals market will remain in a fierce game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, with high - volatility characteristics hard to fade quickly. The core drivers focus on two main lines: the Fed's policy path and the trend of US Treasury yields, and the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern [3][98]. - Gold's macro - suppression is the short - term dominant factor, but geopolitical risks have not subsided. Gold's core position as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains stable, and the correction can be regarded as a medium - to - long - term allocation window. Silver will fluctuate more violently, and it is difficult to participate. Platinum shows relative resilience, while palladium will continue to lag due to its weak fundamentals [4][101]. - In operation, it is recommended to prioritize risk control and take a long - term perspective. Gold can be used as a strategic bottom - position and gradually deployed on dips. For silver and platinum - group metals, only extremely light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended, and heavy - position chasing up or killing down should be avoided [5][101]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market experienced extreme fluctuations from a historic surge to a cliff - like flash crash and then to a continuous deep adjustment. The market's driving logic switched among geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and macro - suppression, with significant differentiation among varieties [7]. - From January to mid - February, geopolitical and policy expectations resonated, leading to a historic surge in precious metals. However, on January 30, the market reversed due to changes in policy expectations, and precious metals crashed. In February, the market entered a high - level shock consolidation phase [8]. - From late February to March, geopolitical conflicts and macro - suppression alternately dominated, and precious metals entered a deep adjustment. Platinum and palladium showed different performances in the macro - suppression, with platinum showing relative resistance and palladium falling more significantly [9][10]. - In late March, the market entered a stage of repeated news and low - level shocks, with precious metals showing different degrees of fluctuations [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Risks - In Q1, global geopolitical situations deteriorated. Different from the traditional "conflict means safe - haven" logic, precious metals did not rise with oil prices but fell after the conflict escalated. Geopolitical risks are reshaping the precious metals' valuation system through the "inflation transmission" path [31]. - Currently, the Middle - East conflict is deadlocked, and geopolitical risks have not subsided. Its impact on precious metals has shifted from direct safe - haven driving to indirect transmission through "inflation expectations - macro - policies - US dollar valuation." In the short term, high oil prices and tight macro - expectations suppress precious metals, but the market's over - pessimistic pricing of the Fed's interest - rate hikes may be corrected [32]. 3.2.2 Monetary Policy - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, the Fed is facing unprecedented uncertainties. The meeting signaled that inflation prevention is the top priority, and the space for interest - rate cuts this year has narrowed [33][34]. - Powell admitted the difficulty of predicting the future and policy modeling due to geopolitical conflicts. He also refuted the "stagflation" narrative to maintain the discourse power of economic narratives. His stance on staying in office provides short - term stability but leaves medium - to - long - term uncertainties [36][37]. 3.2.3 Inflation - In February 2026, the US CPI performance was "average." The market's focus has shifted to how oil prices will push up inflation after March and how the Fed will balance the "stagflation" risk. The 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has been revised down to "at most once" [43]. 3.2.4 Economic Growth - In February, the US manufacturing PMI expansion slowed down, with input prices soaring to a four - year high. The service PMI jumped unexpectedly, with new orders and backlogs surging. The employment data in February was unexpectedly negative, strengthening the market's concern about the cooling labor market. In the long - term, the weak employment and high inflation situation intensifies the market's concern about "stagflation" [46][47][49]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index - In Q1, the US Treasury market fluctuated violently due to geopolitical conflicts. The yields of two - year, five - year, and ten - year US Treasuries rose significantly. The US dollar index strengthened in Q1, directly suppressing precious metals [57][59]. 3.3 Precious Metals Supply - demand Analysis 3.3.1 Gold - In Q4 2025, the global gold market was strong, with total demand and gold prices hitting record highs. Investment demand was the core driver. Supply increased slightly, while investment demand grew explosively. The demand structure was significantly differentiated, with high gold prices suppressing physical gold jewelry consumption but increasing the demand value [61][62]. 3.3.2 Silver - In 2025, the global silver market is expected to show a "moderate decline in total demand but significant structural differentiation" feature. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap, providing medium - to - long - term support for silver prices [67]. 3.3.3 Platinum - In 2025, the platinum market was in a supply shortage for the third consecutive year, and the gap widened. In 2026, the shortage pattern is expected to continue, and the fundamental support has been significantly enhanced [71][74]. 3.3.4 Palladium - The palladium market presents a complex pattern of "short - term shortage and long - term structural pressure." In the short term, the supply is tight, but in the long term, the demand for palladium in fuel - vehicle catalysts may decline due to the global automotive electrification transformation [77]. 3.4 Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis 3.4.1 Gold ETF Holdings - In February 2026, global gold ETFs continued to see strong inflows, with the total holdings reaching a new high. Different regions showed different trends, with North America leading the inflow, Europe having outflows, and Asia and other regions having inflows. Gold and silver ETF flows indicate that the bullish sentiment has converged [80][81][83]. 3.4.2 CFTC Positions - As of the week of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial net long positions of gold and silver futures decreased, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment. The non - commercial net long positions of platinum futures decreased slightly, while those of palladium futures increased [87]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 25, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased significantly, the SHFE gold inventory reached a new high, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, and the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [92]. 3.5 Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In Q2, the precious metals market will be in a game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern. Gold can be considered for medium - to - long - term allocation on dips. Silver and platinum - group metals are highly volatile, and only light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [98][101].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The apple market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations within a certain range, and short - term attention should be paid to the stocking for the Tomb - sweeping Festival and consumption during the festival. The price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is likely to widen, and the AP2605 contract may show a wide - range oscillation pattern. Mid - to long - term market trends will revolve around orchard destocking and new - season apple growth [1][2][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, apple futures fluctuated widely. The main contract saw significant position reduction as long - positions took profits and exited. Due to quality issues, the number of merchants in Shandong's apple - producing areas was small, and cold - storage transactions were average. Coupled with a month - on - month decline in fresh apple exports in February, the market trended weakly [7]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Tight Supply of High - Quality Apples - As of March 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 3.8947 million tons, 217,900 tons lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong had about 1.7759 million tons, Shaanxi about 963,800 tons, and non - main producing areas about 1.155 million tons. The proportion of high - quality apples was low [10]. 2.2 Festival Stocking and Increasing Out - bound Volume - As of March 26, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 29.45%, 1.69 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From March 19 - 25, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.24 percentage points, with a destocking rate of 47.07%. Traders started stocking for the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the cold - storage out - bound volume was expected to increase. High - quality apples were in short supply, and prices were expected to remain firm [14]. 2.3 Decrease in Fresh Apple Imports in February (Month - on - Month) and Increase (Year - on - Year) - In February 2026, fresh apple imports were 2,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 17.96%. Due to the decline in new - season apple production and quality, import demand was expected to increase, but the overall import scale was expected to remain at the current level [21]. 2.4 Increase in Fresh Apple Exports in February (Year - on - Year) - In February 2026, fresh apple exports were about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The first quarter is the peak export season, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [24]. 2.5 Citrus Season Ending, Benefiting Apple Demand - In March, fruit prices remained strong. As the citrus supply season ended, its substitution effect on apples weakened, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple consumption demand [30]. 2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, mainly due to factors such as low inventory, reduced supply of seasonal fruits, and festival effects. Months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October, mainly due to the impact of seasonal fruits, new - season apple listings, and quality decline of stored apples [34][35]. 2.7 Price Differentiation of Apples by Quality - As of March 27, 2026, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, prices of high - quality apples remained high, while low - quality apples had lower prices. The price difference between large and small apples was likely to widen, and the far - month futures contracts were expected to remain strong [38]. 3. Future Outlook - In the short term, observe the stocking for the Tomb - sweeping Festival and consumption during the festival. The price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is likely to continue to widen, and the AP2605 contract may fluctuate widely. In the mid - to long - term, the market will be affected by orchard destocking and new - season apple growth, and factors such as weather and planting area changes during the growth period of the 2026/27 new - season apples need to be focused on [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the pulp futures market is in a low - level oscillation. The cost side has certain support due to the continuous increase in foreign pulp prices, but the traditional papermaking off - season restricts the upward rebound of the market. The current supply - demand sides are in a continuous game, and it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider a low - buying strategy [7][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 first declined and then rose. The cost side of pulp prices has support due to the continuous increase in foreign offers, but the traditional papermaking off - season leads to downstream inventory digestion and price pressure, resulting in a low - level oscillation [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Expected Tightening of Coniferous Pulp Imports - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In January - February 2026, China imported 6.044 million tons of pulp, with an import amount of $3.48 billion and an average unit price of $575.78/ton. The cumulative import volume and amount decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. Affected by geopolitical factors, the import volume from North America has declined, and imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have increased. Large pulp mills may permanently shut down or reduce production, and the supply of coniferous pulp in 2026 is expected to be significantly tightened [13][14] 3.2.2 Decline in European Port Inventories and Gradual Recovery of Overseas Demand - In February 2026, European chemical pulp consumption was 820,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.42%, and the inventory was 703,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.75%. The inventory days were 26 days, one day less than the same period last year. In January 2026, the total European port inventory decreased by 14.72% month - on - month and 11.34% compared with January 2025. European wood pulp demand may be slowly recovering, and the pulp foreign offers are firm [17] 3.2.3 Continuous Increase in Foreign Offers - The foreign offer of imported hardwood pulp has been rebounding since August 2025 and continued to rise in April 2026. For example, Suzano announced a price increase of $20/ton for eucalyptus hardwood pulp in the Asian market and $50/ton in the European and American markets in April 2026. The foreign offers of hardwood pulp announced in April continued to rise, increasing the subsequent import cost and providing certain support to the pulp price cost side [20][21] 3.2.4 Recovery of Downstream Paper Mill Operating Rates and Increased Import Cost Pressure - The foreign offers of coniferous and hardwood pulp are running strongly, increasing the production cost of downstream paper enterprises. However, the price increase of downstream base paper is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the procurement willingness for high - priced raw materials. As of March 26, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was - 7.57%, up 0.97 percentage points from last week but down 6.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load rates of downstream paper types vary. Overall, downstream paper mills focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with general procurement enthusiasm, and high - price transactions are difficult to increase, dragging down the actual price increase of hardwood pulp [24][25] 3.2.5 Increase in Domestic Main Port Inventories and Still at a High Level - As of March 26, 2026, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.3512 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.42%, turning from a decline to an increase. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, with great pressure to reduce inventory, waiting for demand recovery [28] 3.3 Market Outlook - In terms of imports, in January - February 2026, China's pulp import volume and amount decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. International pulp mills have production reduction plans, and the growth rate of pulp import volume may slow down. The domestic pulp port inventory increased in March 2026, is still at a high level, and has great pressure to reduce inventory. Foreign pulp mills are releasing maintenance news, and downstream paper mills are consuming raw material inventories. The traditional papermaking off - season in April may restrict the upward rebound of the market. The continuous increase in foreign offers provides support to the cost side. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider a low - buying strategy [30][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: Due to concerns triggered by the war, it is recommended to hold short positions in stock index futures. After the New Year's Day, the stock market had numerous hotspots, with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. However, after the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, global stock markets tumbled, and domestic stock markets followed suit. The trading volume dropped below 2.5 trillion, and market sentiment was pessimistic. It is advisable to hold light short positions in IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [2][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Amidst the turmoil, treasury bonds may show a tendency to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. The central bank lowered the interest rates of structural tools at the beginning of the year, and the domestic economic stabilization policies have been intensified. With the expansion of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, the international environment has changed significantly, increasing global economic concerns. As a result, the intensity of economic stabilization measures is expected to further increase, international capital may flow in, and risk appetite may turn cautious [3][4][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Section 1. Stock Index Trend Analysis - From 2025 to 2026, the stock market experienced significant fluctuations. After the New Year's Day in 2026, the market was highly active, but after the conflict in the Middle East, the domestic stock market declined, erasing all the gains since the New Year's Day [5][6]. - The four major stock indexes showed a trend from consistency to differentiation. After the New Year's Day in 2026, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 reached new highs, but then fluctuated and declined. After the conflict in the Middle East, all four major stock indexes fell back, erasing the gains since the New Year's Day [6]. 2. Stock Index Fluctuation and Premium/Discount Situation - In the first quarter, the stock index fluctuated significantly, and the fluctuation of the premium/discount weakened. IH and IF changed from a premium to a discount, while the discount of IC continued to widen [15]. 3. Industry Strength - Weakness Transformation - In the first quarter of 2026, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index returned to around 4400 points, and there is a high possibility of a market correction [16]. - In terms of reversal intensity, the reversal intensity of the first - quarter market was not large, but the reversal intensity of some sectors was significant. Energy, materials, finance, and telecommunications had a reversal intensity of over 10, while consumption, utilities, and information had a reversal intensity of less than 2 [21]. 4. Industry ALPHA Risk - Return - The ALPHA risk - return statistics show that the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 sector trends are relatively consistent. The full - cycle ALPHA of the energy and telecommunications sectors is positive, while that of the optional, pharmaceutical, financial, and information sectors is negative. The ALPHA cycles of materials, consumption, and utilities are inconsistent [25]. - According to the statistical BETA values, the BETA values of industries such as industry, consumption, pharmaceuticals, optional, finance, information, and telecommunications are close to 1, indicating lower risks. Materials, utilities, and energy deviate significantly, with BETA values of 2.02, 0.18, and - 0.02 respectively [28]. Treasury Bond Futures Analysis 1. Stimulating Policy Effect is Significant - In terms of GDP, the economic recovery in 2024 and 2025 showed fluctuations. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 5.4%, and in 2025, it gradually declined, with the fourth - quarter GDP at 4.5% [33]. - CPI showed a downward trend in 2025 and then rebounded slightly. In 2026, it declined again. PPI has been in a deflationary state, but the year - on - year decline has weakened [33][34]. - Industrial added value showed significant year - on - year growth in 2026. The cumulative year - on - year growth also showed an upward trend [35][36]. - Manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI were mostly below the boom - bust line in 2026, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing and non - manufacturing sectors [37][38]. - The growth rate of social consumer goods retail increased in 2026 [39]. 2. Slight Increase in Money Supply Growth - From 2024 to 2026, the amount of new RMB loans fluctuated. In 2026, the money supply for stimulating the economy was relatively large [51][53]. - M1 growth rate showed an upward trend in 2026, indicating an increase in the recovery speed of social hot money. M2 growth rate has been relatively stable, and the money growth rate has been declining since the fourth quarter of last year [54][55]. - Since 2022, the central bank has implemented a series of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. In 2026, the central bank lowered the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [56][64]. - The central bank has introduced a series of policies, including suspending open - market treasury bond purchases, promoting long - term funds to enter the market, and implementing a package of financial policies to support the market and the real economy [58][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the domestic cotton market, the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season provides cost and supply support. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season with increased replenishment demand and high - level downstream enterprise operations offer upward impetus. However, the release of sliding - duty quotas, large import volume due to the wide price gap between domestic and international cotton, and weak downstream spinning profits may limit price increases. The overall price range is expected to be around 14,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and if the reduction in planting area exceeds expectations, prices may rise further [1][33]. - In the international market, the global supply - demand pattern is tightening. Drought in the US cotton - producing areas and the high probability of El Niño weather may lead to a decrease in cotton production. The current low price of US cotton and China's purchase demand will support international cotton prices [2][33]. - The operation suggestion is to view Zhengzhou cotton from a medium - term oscillatory perspective and mainly go long on dips [3][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated upward, rising first and then falling. The main contract price ranged from 14,500 to 15,765 yuan/ton. The reduction of inventory, increased demand, and concerns about new - season supply were the core supports, while the quota was only a short - term disturbance [5]. - **International Market**: In the first quarter, US cotton showed a strong and upward - trending oscillation. The ICE cotton futures main contract price ranged from 60 to 68.71 cents/pound. The drought in the main - producing areas and the expectation of a supply shortage were the core supports [6]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Domestic Production**: As of March 24, 2026, the inspected cotton quantity was 33,652,621 bales, with a weight of 7.6005 million tons, higher than the expected 7.4 million tons. The national cotton - planting intention area in 2026 showed a slight decline, with different situations in different regions. Xinjiang plans to reduce the planting area, and the actual reduction will affect cotton prices [8][10]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises recovered rapidly. By March 20, the operating rates reached 61.9% and 60.5% respectively, and the finished - product inventories of these enterprises decreased to 14.8 days and 24.8 days [12][15]. - **Imports**: From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year. The state issued 300,000 tons of sliding - duty quotas, which is expected to keep imports stable and regulate the import order [17][19]. - **Exports**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 17.6% year - on - year. Multiple factors contributed to this growth, but the subsequent export growth may face challenges [21]. 3.3 International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to the USDA's March report, the US cotton supply - demand situation remained stable, while the global market showed an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and a slight increase in inventory pressure [25]. - **Northern Hemisphere Planting**: In the 2026/27 season, the cotton - planting intentions in the US and India showed different trends. Weather conditions and crop price ratios are key factors affecting planting. The US may face drought and El Niño risks, while India may face pest risks [28][29]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: The reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang provides support, but factors such as quota release and import volume may limit price increases. The overall price range is around 14,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton [1][33]. - **International Market**: The global supply - demand pattern is tightening, and factors such as drought and El Niño may lead to a decrease in production. China's purchase demand will support international cotton prices [2][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Treat Zhengzhou cotton from a medium - term oscillatory perspective and mainly go long on dips [3][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market has geopolitical risk premiums, with the US - Iran conflict showing no clear signs of easing, making oil prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. The ethanol substitution logic continues to be effective, and the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season is expected to decrease, increasing the expectation of tightened global sugar supply. However, there are also difficulties in the trend - like rise of international sugar prices. If the US - Iran conflict eases, oil prices may回调, weakening the ethanol substitution logic and reducing the upward momentum of sugar prices. There is still inventory pressure globally, and the slowdown in global food consumption growth restricts the upward space of sugar prices. The weak Brazilian real against the US dollar increases the supply pressure in the international sugar market [2][26]. - The domestic sugar market is mainly affected by three factors: import cost support, policy factors, and domestic supply - demand fundamentals. Import cost support and policy expectations limit the decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the weak domestic demand restricts the upward space, making it difficult for the sugar market to have a trend - like sharp rise [3][27]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish mindset for Zhengzhou sugar [4][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou sugar showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern with a "strong expectation, weak reality" situation. The price range of the main contract was 5200 - 5542 yuan/ton, and the price center shifted upward compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The rise was driven by the increase in international sugar prices and import policy expectations, but the abundant domestic supply and weak consumption in the off - season restricted the increase [6]. - **International Market**: In the first quarter, international sugar prices showed a volatile rebound with a gradually rising center. The ICE raw sugar main contract rose from around 13.34 cents/pound at the beginning of the year to 15.63 cents/pound at the end of March. The main support was the significant reduction in the global sugar surplus. The expected decrease in sugar production in Brazil and India also contributed to the price increase, but the strong US dollar and potential global supply pressure restricted the upward movement [7]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: The 2025/26 crushing season in Brazil has basically ended, with a cumulative sugar production of 4024000 tons in the central - southern region, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar - making ratio is expected to decrease from 50.74% to 48% in the new 2026/27 crushing season. The new season may start in March, but rainfall may disrupt the schedule. Oil prices affect sugar prices through bio - energy substitution and logistics - cost transmission paths [9][10][11]. - **India**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, India's sugar production is estimated to be around 2850000 tons, and the expected export volume is about 800000 tons. The actual export volume may be adjusted according to international sugar prices [13]. - **Thailand**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to reach 1100000 tons if the sugar mills' closing time is postponed to after the first week of April [15]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sales Situation**: In the first quarter of 2026, the domestic spot sugar market had weak transactions and a lagging production - sales process. There was a significant regional difference, with sales in Guangxi lagging behind and those in Yunnan being relatively better. As of the end of February, the sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 38.49%, while that in Yunnan was 46.71% [17]. - **Import Situation**: From January to February 2026, China's sugar imports increased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import of 520000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 563.1%. The import volume is expected to decline steadily in the second quarter, and the annual import volume is expected to be lower than that of the previous crushing season. The market expects the import quota to be tightened, but this needs to be confirmed in May [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 24, 2026, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar futures warehouse receipts were at a low level, which supported the sugar price and limited the downward space. The low warehouse receipts were the result of multiple factors, and the subsequent warehouse receipt registration volume is expected to gradually increase [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, the number of breeding sows continued to decline in Q4 2025, reaching 39.61 million by December, but the reduction was still lower than the regulatory target, and the basic production capacity remained excessive. However, with the piglet price entering the loss range during the peak season and the pig price falling below the cash cost, capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. In the medium - term, the theoretical supply of standard pigs will remain high and stable until August, but there may be a short - term reduction in May and June due to the decrease in piglet births in November and December last year. Feed production and sales show seasonal fluctuations, indicating stable future supply. Currently in the off - season, real demand is weak, second - round fattening demand is cautious, and the frozen product storage rate has risen as the pig price drops. In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is still high, with group farms starting to actively reduce inventory and散户 still passively holding pigs. Overall, the oversupply situation continues, and a fundamental reversal of the spot market requires the average weight to drop to a reasonable level. Pig prices below the cash cost will accelerate capacity reduction. For trading, near - term contracts should be treated as oscillating weakly, with strategies of short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. Contracts in 2027 will be supported by capacity reduction expectations, and investors should wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after accelerated capacity reduction [3][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since Q1, the live hog spot market has shown a downward trend. The national average price of standard pigs was around 13 yuan/kg at the beginning of the quarter, briefly strengthened in mid - to - late January, and then entered a downward channel, falling below 10 yuan. The futures market led the spot market. The LH2603 contract fell first, mainly due to the post - holiday off - season in March with the greatest supply - demand contradiction. The LH2605 contract first weakened oscillatingly, then traded sideways from February to mid - March, and started a new round of decline after breaking through the support level in the second half of March. Overall, the oversupply fundamental situation dominated the Q1 live hog market. Futures contracts for May, July, and September were relatively resistant to decline due to the expected marginal reduction in supply and maintained a high premium. Eventually, as the inventory reduction in the spot market was slow, the futures market reshaped its valuation through price drops [5]. 3.2 Live Hog Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Potential Acceleration of Breeding Sow Culling, High and Stable Piglet Births - According to statistics, the national inventory of breeding sows reached a peak of 40.8 million in November 2024 and then declined. By the end of December 2025, it was 39.61 million, a 2.9% reduction from the peak. The rebound in piglet prices since January turned the piglet sales profit positive, which may have a negative impact on the culling speed of breeding sows. Some sample statistics showed an increase in the inventory of breeding sows in February, which remained stable. However, since March, as the pig price fell, the piglet price weakened, and the culling of breeding sows may accelerate. Piglet births have been at a high level since September last year. Although there was a decline in November and December, it was mainly a seasonal decrease. Based on the time cycle, the theoretical standard pig slaughter volume will be high until August [7]. 3.2.2 Seasonal Decrease in Feed Sales, Overall Stability - From the data of live hog feed production and sales, the sales volume of piglet feed decreased month - on - month from October to December 2025, rebounded in January, and declined again in February, which was mainly normal seasonal fluctuation without an obvious trend. The month - on - month growth rate of fattening pig feed sales turned negative from December 2025 to February 2026, with a decline similar to the same period of the previous year. From the feed perspective, the overall inventory of live hogs in society remained relatively stable, and the future slaughter pressure was still large [10]. 3.2.3 High Average Slaughter Weight, Weakening Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs - According to sample statistics, the national average slaughter weight of live hogs increased seasonally after the Spring Festival and was still at a high level year - on - year. By the end of March, the average weight of group farms was 125.71 kg, the same as the previous year, while the average weight of散户 hogs rebounded to 144.6 kg, an increase of about 8 kg year - on - year. The price difference between fat and standard pigs dropped rapidly during the Spring Festival, lower than last year but higher than the year before. Overall, the inventory reduction of live hogs was difficult, and the supply pressure persisted [12]. 3.2.4 Low - price Stimulation of Slaughter Increase, Continuous Increase in Frozen Product Inventory - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter volume increased seasonally, with a steeper increase in March, mainly due to low - price stimulation. The fresh sales rate weakened seasonally after the Spring Festival and was at a low level year - on - year, indicating weak real demand. Most slaughter enterprises had a psychological price of less than 10 yuan for active storage. In March, as the pig price approached 10 yuan, some enterprises carried out storage, and the frozen product storage rate rose to the highest level in the same period in the past three years [16]. 3.2.5 Continuous Industry Losses, Slight Increase in Costs - Since 2026, the pig price briefly rebounded and then fell rapidly, and the live hog breeding profit entered the loss state again. By the end of March, the loss of self - breeding and self - fattening was about 300 yuan per head. Since the second half of September last year, the loss period at the bottom has reached 5 months. Currently, the self - breeding and self - fattening cost is over 12 yuan per head, slightly higher than before, mainly due to the increase in feed raw material prices [21]. 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes the long - term, medium - term, and short - term situations of the live hog market, the current oversupply situation, and corresponding trading strategies [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, the tire sales season arrives. With rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. However, there are concerns that the good sales in March may over - consume future demand, leading to a possible decline in April sales. [1][9] - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict may initially impede tire shipments, but if customers accept price increases, shipments may gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to short - term decreased demand and rising raw material prices. [2][14] - Facing the continuous rise in synthetic rubber prices, tire companies are considering measures such as raising tire prices, adjusting production formulas, and reducing production if losses occur. [2][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Enterprise Profiles - Tire manufacturer A: A global top 50 tire company with an annual production capacity of 8 million sets of all - steel radial tires and 30 million semi - steel tires. The current semi - steel and all - steel tire production rates are around 85%. There are expectations of production cuts from late March to early April. [4] - Tire manufacturer B: Specializes in high - performance all - steel and semi - steel radial tires and rubber conveyors. The annual production capacity of all - steel radial tires is 1.8 million sets, and that of semi - steel radial tires is 12 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production has been running well, with both production lines almost at full capacity. [5] - Tire manufacturer C: Uses advanced production technology to produce all - steel radial tires, with a production capacity of 2.4 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production quickly recovered to full capacity. In 2025, tire production and sales increased by about 10% compared to 2024. [5] - Tire manufacturer D: Has an annual all - steel tire production capacity of 2.2 million sets and a semi - steel tire production capacity of 12 million sets. Currently, the all - steel tire production is at full capacity, with smooth shipments and a 20 - day product inventory. The production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million sets to 2.6 - 2.8 million sets. [6] - Tire manufacturer E: Has two all - steel tire factories in China and one all - steel and one semi - steel tire factory in Vietnam. The total all - steel tire production capacity is about 11 million sets per year, planned to increase to 12 million sets. The semi - steel tire production capacity in the Vietnam factory is about 4 million sets per day. [6] - Tire dealer A: Specializes in all - steel tire wholesale, with a peak monthly sales volume of about 10,000 tires. It currently has an inventory of six to seven thousand tires. This month, shipments are fast, but next month, shipment pressure is expected to be high. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse B: Has a warehouse area of over 100,000 square meters, mainly storing mixed rubber, plastics, pulp, and agricultural products. The normal rubber inventory is about 100,000 tons. There are delivery warehouses for No. 20 rubber NR and synthetic BR. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse C: The warehouse park covers an area of 175,000 square meters with a total storage capacity of 240,000 tons. It has multiple functions including bonded, general trade, and futures delivery. The inventory includes various types of rubber. [8] 3.2 Current Production and Sales of Tire Companies - In March, due to rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. Except for shipments to the Middle - East, tire companies have had good sales since March. However, there are concerns about over - consuming future demand, and sales may decline in April. Currently, most tire companies have high production rates, over 80%, and some are at full capacity, with plans to further increase production this year. [1][9] 3.3 Current Spot Inventory of Rubber and Tires - Tire companies' rubber inventory levels vary, with some participating in futures hedging and some not. Synthetic rubber suppliers have defaulted due to rapid price increases. Tire companies' product inventory is lower than last year. In the first half of March, downstream purchases were concentrated, and tire manufacturers accelerated shipments. Qingdao Port's rubber inventory is unlikely to decrease significantly in March. Even if there is a decrease, it will be short - term. The warehouse is almost full, and while concentrated pick - ups by tire factories may lead to inventory reduction, the expected incoming goods are still substantial. Inventory reduction may occur in the second quarter. [2][12] 3.4 Demand and Consumption of Tires by New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of natural rubber used in new - energy vehicle tires increases. For semi - steel tires of pure - electric new - energy vehicles, the use of natural rubber increases by 6% - 7%, and for all - steel tires, it increases by 1% - 3%. New - energy vehicle tires wear 20% - 30% faster than fuel - powered vehicle tires, and the proportion of semi - steel tires is increasing. The unit price of new - energy vehicle tires is more than 15% higher than that of fuel - powered vehicle tires. New - energy commercial vehicles have great growth potential, mainly for short - distance transportation. [13] 3.5 Impact of the Middle - East Situation on Tire Sales in the Middle - East - If the Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues, tire shipments will initially be blocked. If customers accept price increases, shipments will gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April. In the short term, tire demand in the Middle - East will decrease, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to rising raw material prices. [2][14] 3.6 Countermeasures of Tire Companies Against Rising Raw Material Prices - Tire companies are considering the following countermeasures: passing on costs to downstream by raising tire prices, adjusting the tire production formula to reduce the proportion of expensive raw materials, and reducing production and production rates if losses occur. [2][15] 3.7 Industry Structure and Market Characteristics - The tire industry in China has a low concentration but is in the process of accelerating concentration. It shows the characteristics of a "large industry with small enterprises," with a competitive market. The top 10 tire companies account for less than half of the market share. Head - tier companies have a complete product line, scale effects, and are building overseas factories, while small and medium - sized companies face problems such as product homogenization, price competition, and high environmental and production costs. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors and short - term market risk appetite, Shanghai nickel showed a slight decline this week. The nickel inventory is at a high level in the same period. Geopolitical conflicts led to high - level international oil prices and a significant increase in the ocean freight of Philippine nickel ore. The supply of nickel ore is relatively tight, and the premium of domestic - trade ore remains at a high level. The downstream stainless steel de - stocking speed is slow, consumption is average, and the inventory is still high. Although the crude steel production schedule in March has increased and there is still supply pressure, the market still has high expectations for the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April". Currently, it is the off - season for new energy vehicle consumption, with average performance. It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract is approximately 128,000 to 140,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless steel contract is approximately 13,400 to 14,600 yuan/ton [33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of yuan/ton [5][6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: It shows the inventory chart of China's nickel ore ports from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of 10,000 tons [8][9] - **Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price**: Displays the price chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of yuan/ton [10][11] - **Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price**: Presents the average price chart of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of yuan/ton [13][14] - **Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel**: Shows the monthly import volume chart of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price chart of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the units of tons and yuan/nickel respectively [15][16] - **Downstream - Stainless Steel Price**: Displays the closing price chart of stainless steel futures (continuous) with the unit of yuan/ton [17][18] - **Downstream - Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Presents the position volume chart of stainless steel futures from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of lots [19][20] - **Downstream - Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Shows the inventory chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel with the unit of tons [22][23] - **Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries**: Presents the monthly production chart of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries and the monthly loading volume chart of Chinese power batteries (ternary materials) with the unit of megawatt - hours [25][26] - **Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production**: Displays the monthly production chart of Chinese new energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [28][29] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the United States, on March 18 (local time), the Federal Reserve kept the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%. This decision met market expectations and was the second consecutive time this year that the Fed chose to "stand still". The "hawkish" statement of Fed Chairman Powell at the press conference and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts. From the "dot plot" of interest - rate forecasts released by the Fed, the interest - rate guidance still indicates one interest - rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively, but the number of committee members who expect no interest - rate cuts this year and next year has increased significantly compared with the previous time, indicating a significant weakening of the Fed's easing expectation. In China, the current Chinese economy is in the opening year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", facing a complex situation of structural transformation and both internal and external challenges. The government work report in 2026 set the economic growth target in the range of 4.5% - 5%, aiming to leave room for "adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms". Looking forward to 2026, the policy focus has clearly shifted to "expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market" and is committed to cultivating new - quality productivity. Real - estate adjustment, local - debt resolution, and the promotion of the "anti - involution" policy will be key challenges [33]