研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国内玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 玉米淀粉市场动态 4 国际玉米市场动态 周度观点 研究所 研究所 补库需求支撑 玉米延续强势 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年12月05日 过去一周玉米现货大面积上涨，其中东北地区因受直属库提价收购带动市场购销情绪而表现强势，期货主力C2601上涨2.27%， 一度创出该合约挂牌以来的新高，现货略弱于期货，基差小幅走弱。基本面来看，尽管目前处于传统的新玉米上市压力较大的 阶段，但中下游补库需求更为强势。根据我的农产品网的调研，本周全国玉米售粮进度依然较快，东北甚至达到34%的进度， 同比大幅提高9个百分点。而从下游库存来看，饲料企业库存环比提升，同比仍处于低位，其中西南饲企库存仅23天，补库进 度仍偏慢；深加工企业原料库存环比虽然回升，但区域分化明显，且库存消费比仍在下降；港口方面，北港库存上升，同比亦 偏低，南港继续去化，整体走货较好，供应紧张格局未有效改善。综合来看，中下游库存不高，有一定补库需求，而东北玉米 售粮进度偏快，或有贸易商抢粮囤货的因素。操作上，观望。关注购销情绪的变化。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market has shown a strong rebound with improved fundamentals. The decrease in imports in October has raised concerns about supply tightening, international producers' shutdown news and price - increase announcements have boosted the market. With the recovery of downstream paper mills' operating rates, the spot market of imported wood pulp has an upward price expectation, and it is recommended to consider a small - position long trial [2][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2601 rebounded strongly from the bottom, and slightly declined after a rapid rise [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of December 4, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5488 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4454 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from last week, also turning from a decline to an increase [12]. - **October Pulp Import Volume**: In October 2025, China imported 261.8 tons of pulp with an import value of 1.5317 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 585.06 US dollars/ton. The import volume in October decreased by 11.31% month - on - month, and the cumulative import volume and value from January to October increased by 4.8% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of December 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0429 million tons, up 0.09% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.44 percentage points [21]. - **October European Port Wood Pulp Inventory Situation**: In October 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% compared with October 2024. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively month - on - month [25]. - **Downstream Pulp Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of China's total pulp consumption. As of December 4, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; that of double - offset paper increased by 0.79 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 0.51 percentage points; and that of household paper remained flat [30]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The decrease in pulp imports in October has led to concerns about supply tightening. International softwood pulp producers' shutdown news has boosted the market, and downstream paper mills' operating rates have recovered. The spot market of imported wood pulp has an upward price expectation, and it is recommended to consider a small - position long trial [36].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week, facing significant resistance around 13,800 yuan/ton. With new cotton entering the market, commercial inventory and warehouse receipt registration have increased rapidly. Although policies are favorable and external markets have positive factors, the rapid appreciation of the RMB may impact exports. Overall, the short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton are limited, with an expected trading range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. [53] - Internationally, the drought in the US main cotton - producing areas has improved, which is bearish for cotton prices. Export data is also negative. However, Vietnam has not significantly increased its purchases of Brazilian cotton, and the high - level shipments of US cotton to Vietnam may be related to transshipment. Overall, US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading. [54] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.11%. ICE cotton futures trended weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.37%. [11] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week's cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 148 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton. [16] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. [21] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons. With new cotton on the market, the market has entered the inventory accumulation stage. [25] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In October, the yarn inventory was 26.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.89 days. The grey fabric inventory was 31.97 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.74 days. [30] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S cotton yarn increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of C32S cotton yarn increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S cotton yarn increased by 90 yuan/ton. [35] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 1,093. There were 2,639 warehouse receipts and 2,746 effective forecasts, totaling 5,385. [41] 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated on specific purchase volume or trend, only shows the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price data. [44][45] 3.1.9 US Cotton Export Situation - As of October 30, the current - year net sales of US upland cotton exports increased by 81,500 bales, and the next - year net sales were 7,900 bales. US cotton weekly contract signings declined significantly, and Vietnam reduced its signings for two consecutive weeks. [46] 3.1.10 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.2%, moderate drought areas 21.3%, severe drought areas 11.4%, extreme drought areas 1.9%, and exceptional drought areas 0.2%. The total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) is 34.7%. [52] 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has limited short - term upside and downside, with a trading range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. [53] - Internationally, US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] - The operation suggestion is short - term trading. [54]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar hit a new low this week, testing the support around 5,300 yuan/ton. Spot prices are dropping rapidly, and the overall supply pressure is high. With the increase in new sugar on the market, spot pressure rises. The market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are unlikely to rise. Internationally, ICE sugar futures are digesting supply pressure, with prices fluctuating around 15 cents/pound and finding support around 14 cents/pound. Although current supply pressure is hard to resolve, there are some hidden long - term positives, and international sugar prices may maintain low - level oscillations. The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [57][58] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis 1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed weak performance, with a weekly decline of 1.8%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.97% [11] 1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No summary information provided 1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No summary information provided 1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In October, imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar futures March contract price of 14.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,019 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,090 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand is 4,078 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,166 yuan/ton [23] 1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in October was about 321,800 tons, an increase of 45,900 tons compared to the same period last year [29] 1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 183, a decrease of 75 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the valid forecasts were 183 [34] 1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 576 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.26%, and the sugar production was 39.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.09% [38] 1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.54%, compared to 48.45% in the same period last year [43] 1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In October, Brazil's sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [47] 1.10 International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - Brazil's main producing areas have abundant rainfall, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. India has little precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane crushing [53] 2. Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar hit a new low, spot prices are falling, and supply pressure is high. With new sugar on the market, pressure increases, and sugar prices are unlikely to rise. Internationally, ICE sugar futures are digesting supply pressure, and although current pressure is high, there are long - term positives, and prices may maintain low - level oscillations. The operation suggestion is short - term trading [57][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the apple futures main contract has completed position transfer and AP2605 continues to fluctuate at a high level. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the cold - storage shipment volume is gradually increasing. The approaching Christmas and New Year's Day have an obvious boosting effect on demand. With the withdrawal of seasonal fruits, the substitution effect is greatly weakened, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality supports prices, but quality issues may increase storage costs. The new - season apple production reduction is a foregone conclusion, providing strong support for the cost side. The price differentiation of different - quality apple sources is expected to be obvious, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review The apple futures main contract has completed position transfer, and AP2605 continues to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of December 4, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.2438 billion tons, with a cold - storage inventory ratio of about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Shaanxi and Gansu production areas reported slower shipments, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing after the end of warehousing. So, the national cold - storage inventory shipment volume increased slightly compared with last week [11]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Cold - storage shipment volume: As of December 4, 2025, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the de - stocking rate was 1.55%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 55.33%, which decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 53.48%, a weekly decrease of 0.41 percentage points [15]. - Export volume: In October 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The delayed listing of new - season apples led to a significant year - on - year decrease in exports in October [18]. - Spot price: As of December 5, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of 65 - 70 cold - storage apples from fruit farmers is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty, and the price of 75 apples from merchants is about 3.0 yuan per catty. The 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit from fruit farmers has an intended quotation of 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty for slice - red apples and 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty for striped apples. The asking price for merchant - sourced apples is higher, with an intended price of 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty for 80 and above first - and second - grade apples (not yet traded) [31].

研究所 基本面供应过剩不改 氧化铝或延续弱势 多头情绪回暖 铝价重心再抬升 ——国信期货有色（铝产业链）周报 2025年12月5日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1 行情概览 研究所 宏观面：12月3日公布的数据显示，美国11月ADP就业人数从前值4.2万人大幅下降至-3.2万人，远低于预期值1万人。该数据 的大幅下降使得市场普遍认定美联储将在12月继续降息25个基点，CME美联储观察最新数据显示，12月美联储降息概率已飙 升至89%。 重要消息：据新华社，山西已建成281座绿色矿山。铝土矿预计新增产能约1000万吨/年。阿拉丁（ALD）综合新闻了解，近 日澳大利亚联邦能源部长克里斯•鲍恩确认，政府正与托马戈铝厂（Tomago）进行谈判，计划通过提供稳定且廉价的可再生能 源，帮助该厂维持运营。据了解，托马戈铝厂隶属于力拓集团，总建成产能为58万吨，目前基本处于满负荷生产状态，澳大 利亚工党推行的能源计划导致托Tomago生产所用的部分煤电成本面临上涨压力,进而导致在2028年电力协约到期后没有更积 极的意 ...

移仓换月加快 油强粕弱凸显 研究所 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年12月5日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆高位回落。原因是缺乏对最大买家中国的大豆销售，市场仍质疑中国能否如美国高级官员宣布的那样在2025年底前购买1200万吨大豆。在随后的USDA报告 没有新的美国大豆订单。美国财政部长斯科特•贝森特周三在《纽约时报》DealBook峰会上表示，中国准备履行其在美中贸易协议下的承诺，包括购买1200万吨大豆。贝森特称，这笔交易将 于2026年2月底完成。这让市场乐观的情绪发生转变。交易商称，因缺乏支持性消息，且预期南美大豆将丰收，美豆震荡回落，主力合约将考验1100美分/蒲式耳的支撑力度。受此影响国内豆 粕市场先扬后抑，资金完成从M2601向M2605合约移仓。现货方面，国内豆粕库存继续增加，库存压力沉重。市场不时传出中粮及中储粮储备大豆拍卖的消息，但并未得到官方证实。连粕市 场因此也是震荡反复。主力合约M2605在突破前高后震荡回落，多空资 ...

——国信期货有色（铜）周报 2025年12月5日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 研究所 宏观利多与强基本面共振 铜价强势难挡 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 基本面分析 现货市场 研究所 研究所 盘面行情回顾：沪铜震荡上涨 研究所 12月1日-12月5日，沪铜震荡偏强，收于92780元/吨，较11月28日上涨6.12%。 沪铜主力合约日K线图 数据来源：博易云、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 期货市场 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 铜精矿及粗铜加工费 研究所 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 铜精矿供应 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 9 电解铜供应 研究所 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的， ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Anticipating Cost Support, Wait and See - Guoxin Futures Ferroalloy Weekly Report" [2] - Report date: November 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Report Core View - For manganese - silicon, the futures fluctuated last week, the spot price declined slightly, and the basis dropped slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the absolute price is low with strong cost support. Due to poor profits of alloy plants, production has been falling. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - For silicon - iron, the futures were weak last week, the spot price declined slightly, and the basis rebounded slightly. The spot price of thermal coal has weakened, but the year - end electricity price reduction space is limited, providing cost support. Due to poor production profits, silicon - iron production has started to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate upward, depending on energy price changes [46]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Important news**: On November 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; on November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition; from January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the steel industry turned from loss to profit; this week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons (0.7%); the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons (2.25%); the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%, with building material consumption down 0.3% and plate consumption up 2.3% week - on - week [5]. - **Manganese - silicon futures and price changes**: The basis of manganese - silicon in different regions showed different year - on - year, monthly, and weekly changes. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the basis was 238, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.54%, a 30 - day decrease of 3.17%, and a one - week decrease of 0.36%. The spot price of Australian 44Mn increased by 0.76% week - on - week, while the South African semi - carbonate decreased by 0.58% week - on - week [9]. - **Silicon - iron futures and basis**: The basis situation of silicon - iron was presented, and the electricity price changes in major production areas were also shown [12][15][17]. 2. Manganese - silicon Industry Chain Overview - **Manganese ore**: Information on manganese ore price, import volume, inventory was presented, but specific numerical summaries were not given in the text [20][24][26]. - **Manganese - silicon profit, production, and demand**: The profit estimation of manganese - silicon was shown. The开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises nationwide was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from last week, and the daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The demand side was related to steel production [27][46]. 3. Silicon - iron Industry Chain Overview - **Silicon - iron profit and production**: The profit estimation of silicon - iron was presented. The开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises nationwide was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% from last week, and the daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 150 tons (0.97% week - on - week). The demand was related to steel production [37][46]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - **Manganese - silicon**: Wait and see due to weak supply - demand but strong cost support and falling production [46]. - **Silicon - iron**: Considered to fluctuate upward, relying on energy price changes with cost support at the end of the year [46].

研究所 弱势震荡，反弹乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...