1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].

国信期货软商品月报 短期存在支撑 郑棉偏强运行 棉花 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 5 月 25 日 主要结论 棉花：国内市场综合来看，棉价下方空间比较有限。供应方面国内商业库存 偏低，进口大幅收紧，总体供应压力不大。消费方面，纯棉纱市场整体交投尚可， 目前内地纺企即期现金流处于微亏状态，但新疆纺企仍有利润。成品库存略高， 但是纺企开机表现较为坚挺，库存有小幅去化库存的趋势。抢出口影响下，短期 外需仍有支撑。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 国际市场综合来看，全球仍旧承压，美国农业部 5 月报告对于全球供应有所 上调。天气方面，前期旱情得到较大的缓解。美棉出口方面，新作销售不理想， 中国采购迟迟未启动。宏观方面由于美国总统政治不确定性较强，90 天后是否 会再度恶化仍有变数，美棉预计维持 64-70 美分/磅之间的震荡。 证监许可【2012】116 号 操作建议：郑棉短线交易为主。 分析师：侯雅婷 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has rebounded, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. The technical analysis shows that the downside space for rubber prices may be limited, and future operations can be based on an oscillating and bullish approach [2][71] Group 2: Market Review - The report presents the weekly trends of the Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, and synthetic rubber main contracts, as well as the spread trend between the futures active contracts RU - NR and the basis of synthetic rubber BR futures and spot [9][12][14] Group 3: Rubber Fundamentals 3.1 Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. The ANRPC's March 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in March will increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.4% to 14.897 million tons. The export volume of rubber in Cote d'Ivoire from January to April 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year [26][30] - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import volume was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase [33] - As of Thursday, the total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber futures on the SHFE decreased by 320 tons week - on - week to 200,340 tons, while the total warehouse receipt inventory of No. 20 rubber futures increased by 5,945 tons to 75,196 tons [36] - As of the week of May 9, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.52 million tons to 4.907 million tons, with the bonded area inventory increasing by 0.59 million tons and the general trade inventory decreasing by 70,000 tons [38] 3.2 Demand - Side - From January to March 2025, China's tire outer - tube production increased by 4.4% year - on - year to 283.634 million pieces [42] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 40 billion yuan, a 7% increase [44] - This week, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.07%, up 20.32% from last week, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.96%, up 19.98% from last week [47] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat trend [56] - At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China decreased slightly to 10.93 million pieces, while the total inventory of semi - steel tires increased slightly to 18.14 million pieces [59] 3.3 Related Product Prices and Inventories - The report also presents the price trend of butadiene and the inventory situation of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises [61][63] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of May 16, the spot prices of 23 - year SCRWF and Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber in the Shanghai market declined. Currently, the fundamentals lack core positive support, downstream demand is average, and new rubber output is expected to increase. However, the rainfall in Thailand may affect the output rhythm, and the increase in imports in China will suppress price movements [70]

研究所 铁合金加速减产 等待煤价企稳 ----国信期货铁合金周报 行情回顾·要闻概览 研究所 2025年5月18日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 总结及后市展望 1 行情回顾 2 锰硅产业链概况 3 硅铁产业链概况 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 行情回顾·锰硅产业链价格变动 研究所 数据来源：WIND、Mysteel、钢之家、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布。双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消91%的反制 关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施。其中，国务院关税税则委员 会2025年第4号公告规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 ...

研究所 宏观回暖 铁矿震荡反弹 ----国信期货铁矿石周报 2025年5月18日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 受中美谈判影响，铁矿石本周震荡反弹。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.2 铁矿现货走势 | PB粉 | 770 | 806 | | --- | --- | --- | | 超特粉 | 639 | 837 | | 金布巴粉 | 733 | 881 | | 巴混 | 786 | 807 | | 麦克 | 751 | 816 | | 纽曼 | 763 | 823 | 品种 价格 仓单 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 | 品类 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 主力基差 | 36.5 | | 09-01 | 38.5 | | pb-超特 | ...

研究所 生柴政策多变 美豆油冲高回落 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年5月18日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆先扬后抑，价格较前一周有所上移。周一CBOT大豆创下三个月新高，贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部报告利多帮助大豆价格回升至贸易沖突前水平。美国 农业部预计2025/26年度美国大豆期末库存为2.95亿蒲式耳，分析师预计为3.62亿蒲式耳。美国农业部预计2024/25年度美国大豆期末库存为3.5亿蒲式耳，而4月份的预测是3.7亿蒲式耳，分 析师的预期是3,69亿蒲式耳。 美豆库存下调显示偏紧格局。随后美豆继续刷新高点，据知情人士透露，美国众议院税收委员会拟议的草案计划将45Z清洁燃料税收抵免政策延长至2031年12 月31日，美豆油飙升拉动美豆持续走高。周四美豆高位大幅回落，市场传闻美国可再生燃料义务（RVO）计划可能削减，环保署署长李•泽尔丁在参议院听证会中表达出的谨慎态度，引发了 对生物柴油需求前景的担忧。美豆回吐本周涨幅。与之相比，国 ...

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated May 18, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides reached a series of important consensuses on tariff adjustments, and China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the changes in premiums and discounts were small, the mine - end market changed little, the quotes of mines were firm, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and the salt plants were in a loss state. After the holiday, stainless steel inventory increased, and the demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand has resilience, but whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part shows the historical price trend chart of the main contract of nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data range from 0 to 6 million tons [13] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Presents the price trend chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Shows the average price trend chart of nickel sulfate in China, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from 0 to 1 million tons and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel [20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: Displays the closing price trend chart of stainless steel futures (continuous), with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [22] - **Position**: Shows the position volume trend chart of stainless steel futures, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 lots [24] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trend chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production value trend chart of new energy vehicles in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [31] 3. Outlook for the Future - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, tariff adjustments were made. China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market oscillated this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the mine - end market changed little, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and stainless steel inventory increased after the holiday. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol supply remains high as some previously overhauled methanol plants resumed stable operation in May. Although the short - term available supply in coastal areas is scarce, the significant increase in imported cargoes at coastal public terminals is expected, with an estimated arrival volume of 930,000 tons in mid - to - late May, leading to limited upward potential in prices [44]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of the methanol main contract MA2509 was 2,284 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.42%. It shed 50,000 lots, and the open interest was 710,000 lots. The port basis continued to weaken [6]. - Inland methanol prices first declined and then rose. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,116 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from last week. Some olefin enterprises continued to make external purchases, and the overall transaction center moved upward. The coastal methanol market rebounded from the low level. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,429 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from last week. With the improvement of macro - sentiment and the restart expectation of coastal downstream, the negotiation and transaction center of coastal methanol moved slightly upward [9]. - In the overseas market, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month was 265 - 268 US dollars/ton, and that of Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month was +0.7 - 1.5%. A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia was under maintenance. As of now, two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 3.45 million tons were shut down, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 335 - 340 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of May 15, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 75.50%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week but up 10.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 82.42%, down 1.15 percentage points from last week but up 13.11 percentage points from the same period last year [16]. - **Methanol Imports and Exports**: The import arbitrage window was open, and the re - export profit remained relatively high [18]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The coastal methanol inventory this week was 629,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The overall coastal inventory increased steadily, and the raw material inventory of downstream factories also rose. The estimated tradable methanol supply in the coastal area was 254,000 tons, and the short - term available supply was scarce. It is expected that the volume of imported methanol vessels arriving in China in mid - to - late May will be 930,000 tons [22]. - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: The international natural gas price slightly declined to around 3.7 US dollars/MMBtu, and the import cost of natural - gas - based methanol increased to around 1,780 yuan/ton [25]. - **Methanol Upstream - Coal**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak this week, with coal prices continuing to decline. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly [28]. - **Methanol Downstream Price and Operating Rate**: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was about 58.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [30]. - **Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: Not elaborated in detail in the text. - **Methanol Downstream - MTO**: The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 77.52%, up 1.53 percentage points from last week. The average load of externally - purchased MTO plants was 75.68%, up 8.51 percentage points from last week. Inner Mongolia Baofeng (Phase I) resumed production, Zhongmei Yulin entered maintenance on May 10, Ningxia Baofeng (Phase II) shut down this week for a planned one - month maintenance. Zhongmei Mengda has a maintenance plan in late June, and Sierbang plans to restart in late May [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The domestic methanol supply remains high. Although the short - term available supply in coastal areas is scarce, the expected increase in imported cargoes will limit the upward potential of prices [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The better - than - expected result of the China - US negotiation led to a significant drop in tariffs, which repaired market sentiment and drove the rebound of hot - rolled coils. This week, the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for building materials, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates all rose, with inventory continuing to decline. The better - than - expected result of the China - US trade negotiation falsified the pessimistic expectation on the export side, and the market re - examined the supply - demand situation and expectations, resulting in a short - term corrective rebound. However, from the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, future demand still has great uncertainty, and hot - rolled coils face significant pressure. In terms of trends, there is a short - term rebound but significant resistance above. The operating strategy is to participate in the short - term [10][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Trend Review - The better - than - expected result of the China - US negotiation led to a significant drop in tariffs, which repaired market sentiment and drove the rebound of hot - rolled coils [10]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Hot - rolled coil basis**: The 01 basis is 28, the 05 basis is 38, and the 10 basis is 40 [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Hot - rolled coil profit**: The 01 contract's on - disk profit is 430, the 05 contract's on - disk profit is 212, the 10 contract's on - disk profit is 360, and the production profit is 191 [31]. - **Output**: The hot - rolled coil output is 311.98, the cold - rolled coil output is 87.86, the rebar output is 226.53, and the output of the five major steel products is 868.35 [33]. - **Inventory**: The hot - rolled coil inventory is 347.57, the cold - rolled coil inventory is 169.2, the rebar inventory is 619.87, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1430.66 [38]. - **Export**: Exports remain strong [47]. 4. Future Outlook - The hot - rolled coil market shows a short - term rebound but faces significant resistance above. The operating strategy is to participate in the short - term [52].

研究所 期货高位调整 基差被动走强 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年05月18日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度观点 研究所 本周全国玉米现货先涨后稳，总体高位盘整格局。东北地区总体偏稳，华北地区稳中有调，北方港口稳定，南方港口小 幅上涨。期货多头获利离场为主，表现弱于现货，使得基差走高。基本面来看，根据农业农村部预估，新季玉米播种面积及产 量预计较上年稳中有增，但东北产区春播以来天气偏潮湿，播种进度较正常偏慢；旧作玉米继续消耗，北方港口库存及南方港 口库存高位小幅回落，后期预计延续去库趋势；需求端，饲料工业协会最新工业饲料生产数据同比增加明显，继续验证养殖部 门刚需的提升，但因整体养殖利润不佳，饲料企业原料库存相对高位下进一步补库动力不足。此外，小麦-玉米价差偏低，替 代作用下，玉米的饲用需求也受到抑制。深加工利润继续恶化，开机率有所下降，后期深加工需求或表现不佳。总体来看，玉 米后期库存继续去化，但需求端受到深加工开机率下滑及替代因素的压制，预计价格呈现上有顶下有底的震荡运行格局。操作 上，震荡思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 ...