研究咨询部 国内经济今年主要预期目标确定 海外特朗普政府关税政策多变 ——国信期货宏观周报 2025-3-9 研究咨询部 目 录 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 1 周度回顾 2 高频数据 3 大类资产 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 0303-0309 1.1 周度回顾（0303-0309） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 周二，3月4日。根据财政部的消息，《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的部分进 口商品加征关税的公告》发布。2025年3月3日，美国政府宣布以芬太尼为由对所有中国 输美商品进一步加征10%关税。美方单边加征关税的做法损害多边贸易体制，加剧美国企 业和消费者负担，破坏中美两国经贸合作基础。根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华 人民共和国海关法》、《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经 国务院批准，自2025年3月10日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税。有关事项如 下：一、对鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税。二、对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水 产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关税。三、对原产于美国的附件所列进口商品，在现 行适用关税税率基础上分别加征相应关税，现行 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内宏观经济阶段性改善 美国关税仍有不确定性 2025 年 2 月 23 日 ⚫ 主要结论 国内宏观经济阶段性改善。物价水平方面，1 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.5%、PPI 同比下降 2.3%，春节错月效应短期利好，物价水平结构性改善。货币供给和 社融方面，1 月社融增量为 7.06 万亿元，为有数据以来的单月最大增幅；其 中，人民币贷款新增 5.2 万亿元，尤其是非金融企业的中长期贷款新增 3.46 万亿元，仅次于 2023 年 1 月的 3.5 万亿元。实体企业长期融资较好。景气度 方面，1 月制造业景气度相对不佳，官方制造业 PMI 为 49.1%，财新制造业 PMI 录得 50.1%，抢出口及春节较早有部分影响。企业利润和库存方面，2024 年，规上工业企业利润相对下滑，企业补库趋势相对回落。至 2024 年末，规 上工业企业利润跌幅相对收窄，企业库存回落趋势相对停滞，短期相对改善。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：夏豪杰 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 ...

Economic Policy and Market Trends - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption and optimizing industrial structure through the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" and other measures[6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain its 2% inflation target without immediate policy adjustments, as stated by Chairman Powell[6] - Trump's administration has implemented a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, with no exceptions[8] Inflation and Monetary Supply - In January, the U.S. CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.3%, indicating potential inflationary pressures[10] - China's M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, while social financing stock increased by 8.0%[12] - January's social financing increment reached 7.06 trillion yuan, marking the largest monthly increase on record[12] Commodity Prices and Market Performance - The wholesale price of pork decreased to 21.78 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices fell to 5.21 yuan/kg, and fruit prices slightly increased to 7.54 yuan/kg[16] - The CRB spot index rose significantly to 551.43, indicating a positive trend in commodity prices[19] - A-shares indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.30% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.64%[32] Currency and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.21%, and the onshore dollar to yuan exchange rate decreased by 0.32%[35] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slightly adjusted to 792 points, reflecting changes in shipping rates[25] - The export container freight index (CCFI) continued to decline, reaching 1387.16[28]

研究咨询部 国内1月物价水平结构性改善 海外美联储适时停止"缩表" ——国信期货宏观周报 2025-2-9 研究咨询部 目 录 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 1 周度回顾 2 高频数据 3 大类资产 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 0205-0209 1.1 周度回顾（0205-0209） 研究咨询部 数据来源：中国政府网等 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 ⚫ 周三，2月5日。根据新华社的报道，国务院总理李强2月5日主持召开国务院第七次全体会 议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大三次会议审议的政府工作报告，并对做好开年工作进行动 员。李强指出，要认真总结和丰富拓展工作中探索的好做法，锚定发展目标因时因势加大 逆周期调节力度，聚焦突出问题整合资源集中发力，敢于打破常规推出可感可及的政策举 措，及时回应关切加强政策与市场的互动。 ⚫ 周四，2月6日。根据英国央行的消息，将政策利率由4.75%下调至4.5%，即降息25个基 点；投票结果为7人投票支持降息25个基点，2人支持降息50个基点。 ⚫ 周五，2月7日。根据美国劳工部的数据，美国1月非农就业新增14.3万人，预期 ...

Economic Policy and Trade Relations - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and adequate monetary policies to support high-quality development and respond to challenges[5] - Trump plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese exports starting February 1, which is lower than previously indicated rates during his campaign[13] - Trump expressed a preference not to impose tariffs on China, viewing them as a significant leverage point[10] Financial Market Developments - The implementation plan for long-term capital entering the market aims for public funds to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years, potentially adding several hundred billion yuan to the market[12] - By the end of January, the total loan amount for real estate "white list" projects reached 5.6 trillion yuan, exceeding initial expectations[12] Market Performance Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29% and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.64%[30] - The CRB Spot Index increased to 539.94, indicating a rise in commodity prices[18] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined to 824 points, reflecting a downturn in shipping rates[23] Fiscal Data - In 2024, the general public budget revenue is projected at 21.97 trillion yuan, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, while expenditures are expected to reach 28.47 trillion yuan, up 3.6%[12] - The broad fiscal revenue is anticipated to decrease by 1.98% to 28.18 trillion yuan, while broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by 2.71% to 38.61 trillion yuan[13]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% compared to 2023, successfully meeting the annual target[10] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a notable 6.2% growth in December[12] - Social retail sales totaled 48.79 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, with December showing a 3.7% increase[13] Structural Improvements - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% for the year, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.2%[4] - By the end of December, M2 money supply grew by 7.3%, while M1 decreased by 1.4%, indicating a structural improvement in monetary supply[40] - The total social financing stock increased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative increment of 32.26 trillion yuan in 2024[40] Trade and Investment - Exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, totaling 3.58 trillion USD, with a trade surplus of 992.2 billion USD in 2024[26] - Fixed asset investment reached 51.44 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2%, but private investment saw a slight decline of 0.1%[18] - The real estate sector continued to struggle, with new housing starts down by 23.0% and sales area down by 12.9%[21] Outlook and Risks - The 2025 GDP target is expected to remain around 5.0%, with potential uncertainties arising from U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration[32] - The RMB exchange rate may shift from absolute depreciation to relative appreciation in 2025, influenced by monetary policy adjustments[56]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - China's fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in 2025, with a projected deficit rate potentially increasing to 3.8%[12] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to suspend open market operations for short-term government bonds, which may lead to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market[12] - The U.S. unemployment rate for December 2024 was reported at 4.1%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 256,000, exceeding expectations of 165,000[11] Group 2: Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.02% during the week[32] - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.34%[32] - The CRB Spot Composite Index decreased to 533.74, indicating a downward trend in commodity prices[19] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Wholesale pork prices remained stable at 22.62 CNY/kg, while vegetable prices were also stable at 5.16 CNY/kg[16] - The export container freight index (CCFI) continued to rise, reaching 1560.87[28] - Crude oil prices increased by 2.83%, while copper prices rose by 3.22%[35]

国信期货研究 Page 1 宏观 2024 年 12 月 29 日 国内宏观经济结构性矛盾延续改善。11 月，规上工业增加值相对稳健增 长 5.4%；社零维持底部徘徊，11 月同比增长 3.0%；固投总体仍不理想，1-11 月同比增长 3.3%；民间投资跌幅延续不佳，扩大至下跌 0.4%；房地产市场仍 然未有显著改善，为下跌 10.4%；基建延续较好表现，增速维持近 1 年多以 来的新高，增长 9.4%；11 月出口维持上行趋势同比增长 6.7%，抢出口、高 基数产生波动；社融增量有所回升至 2.34 万亿元；物价水平相对好转，CPI 同比上涨 0.2%、PPI 同比下降 2.5%，M1 跌幅再度显著收窄至同比下降 3.7%， 跌幅较 10 月末收窄 2.4 个百分点；官方制造业 PMI 连续 2 个月扩张。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格 证监许可【2012】116 号 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------| ...

Economic Overview - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of stock buybacks and increasing market value management for central enterprises and listed companies[5] - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.4%, while retail sales increased by 3.0%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points from October[31] - From January to November, fixed asset investment grew by 3.3%, with private investment declining by 0.4%[31] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.1% for one year and 3.6% for five years[10] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%[35] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60% during the week[54] - The 30-year treasury futures rose by 1.47%, indicating a positive sentiment in the bond market[54] Commodity Prices - The wholesale price of pork decreased to 22.81 CNY/kg, while vegetable prices remained stable at 5.03 CNY/kg[43] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 990 points, reflecting a downturn in shipping rates[50] Fiscal Data - From January to November, national public budget revenue decreased by 0.6%, while expenditure increased by 2.8%[33] - Government fund revenue fell by 18.4%, with land use rights revenue down by 22.4%[33]

Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a more proactive macro policy for 2025, aiming to expand domestic demand and stabilize the real estate and stock markets[4] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach approximately 3.8%[14] - Monetary policy is shifting from "prudent" to "moderately loose," indicating increased operational space for monetary policy[14] Economic Indicators - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to October[7] - In November, the total import and export value reached $527.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with exports at $312.31 billion (up 6.7%) and imports at $214.87 billion (down 3.9%) resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[7] - M2 money supply grew by 7.1% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 3.7%[11] Market Performance - Major A-share indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.73%[45] - Government bond futures saw increases, with the 2-year bond futures up 0.20% and the 10-year bond futures up 0.55%[45] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 1051 points[38] Trade and Export Trends - November exports to ASEAN grew by 14.9%, while exports to the EU and the US increased by 7.2% and 8.0%, respectively[17] - The export scale for November was $312.31 billion, maintaining an upward trend despite a decrease in year-on-year growth rate due to a higher base effect from the previous year[17]