证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 邹佩轩 S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现: -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 光大环境 恒生中国企业指数 2024 年 07 月 23 日 光大环境(0257.HK) 买入(维持) ——自由现金流有望迎来转正,建议关注低协方差行情扩散 下的固废投资机会 投资要点: 证券分析师 查浩 S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com ➢ 事件:公司近期股价波动较大。 ➢ 在建项目持续减少,垃圾发电行业进入存量运营期,公司 2023 年运营服务收入占比超过 50%。随着过 去 20 年以光大环境为首的垃圾发电集团持续扩张产能,我国大中城市的垃圾焚烧能力趋近饱和,大型优 质新建项目持续减少,根据北极星固废网统计,2024 年上半年垃圾焚烧发电特许经营累计开标 10 个, 与 2023 年同期开标 27 个项目相比,数量下滑 63%,建设规模下滑 77%。十四 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 5.10 from HKD 4.43 [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a positive free cash flow cycle due to a decrease in construction scale and continuous improvement in operational capacity. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are HKD 41.48 billion, HKD 42.82 billion, and HKD 43.91 billion respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 times for 2024 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Project Developments - The completion of the Hue waste-to-energy project in Vietnam was reported, which can process approximately 220,000 tons of waste annually and generate around 80 million kWh of green electricity [4]. - The company signed a contract for the first phase of the sewage treatment project in Anyang, Henan, with an estimated total investment of approximately RMB 663 million [5]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to see an increase in waste processing volume in 2024, enhancing operating cash flow. The reduction in construction projects is anticipated to lead to a decrease in capital expenditures, further improving free cash flow [6]. - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.08 per share for 2023, with a total annual dividend of HKD 0.22, resulting in a payout ratio of 30.5% and a dividend yield of 5.5% as of July 2 [6]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 37.32 billion in 2022, HKD 32.09 billion in 2023, and HKD 29.99 billion in 2024, reflecting a decline of 25.20%, 14.02%, and 6.53% respectively [10][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 4.60 billion in 2022, HKD 4.43 billion in 2023, and HKD 4.15 billion in 2024, with corresponding growth rates of -32.37%, -3.75%, and -6.34% [10][13].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 其他公用事业 [ Table_Main[光I Tnaf 大bol]e 环_Ti境tle]（ 0257） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 3.40 固废龙头现金流拐点将至，价值重估可期 2024.05.08 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 徐强(分析师) 邵潇(分析师) 于歆(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 2.35-3.53 当前股本（百万股） 6,143 公 010-83939805 0755-23976520 021-38038345 当前市值（百万港元） 20,886 司 xuqiang@gtjas.com shaoxiao@gtjas.com yuxin024466@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880517040002 S0880517070004 S0880523050005 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 2024 年资本开支计划明确缩减，在不考虑国补加速回收情况下，2024年将看到公司 光大环境 恒生指数 香 自由现金流转正。现金 ...

Company Overview - China Everbright Environment Group Limited is the largest environmental enterprise in China and a leading player in Asia's environmental protection industry, focusing on solid waste, water-related business, and clean energy [2]. - The company operates in over 225 locations across 26 provinces and has expanded its business to international markets including Germany, Poland, Vietnam, and Mauritius [3]. - Everbright Environment has been ranked first among the "Top Ten Influential Solid Waste Treatment Enterprises in China" for 13 consecutive years and has been included in the MSCI China Index for 11 consecutive years [4]. - The company aims to create investment value while undertaking social responsibility, reflecting its commitment to sustainability [4]. - Everbright Environment's corporate mission is "Devoted to Ecology and Environment for a Beautiful China," emphasizing its focus on ecological and environmental protection [4]. Sustainability and Recognition - The company has received the Achievement of Net-Zero Certificate and was recognized as a Pioneering Organisation in Net-Zero Contribution by the Hong Kong Quality Assurance Agency in 2022 [4]. - Everbright Environment has been a constituent member of the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices for 8 years and the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Benchmark Index for 13 years [4]. - The company has been recognized multiple times in S&P Global's Sustainability Yearbook, highlighting its commitment to sustainable practices [4]. - The Group received first place in the "2023 Top 50 Environmental Enterprises in China" for the fifth consecutive year and first place in the "Top Ten Influential Solid Waste Treatment Enterprises in China" for the thirteenth consecutive year [99]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 decreased by 14% to HK$32,090,207, compared to HK$37,321,229 in 2022 [17]. - Profit attributable to equity holders of the Company decreased by 4% to HK$4,429,160 in 2023 from HK$4,601,939 in 2022 [17]. - Total assets decreased by 1% to HK$189,182,824 in 2023, down from HK$190,597,798 in 2022 [17]. - Equity attributable to equity holders increased by 2% to HK$48,140,888 in 2023, compared to HK$47,374,108 in 2022 [17]. - Gearing ratio improved to 65% in 2023 from 67% in 2022, a decrease of 2 percentage points [17]. - Current ratio increased to 114% in 2023, up from 107% in 2022, an increase of 7 percentage points [17]. Project Developments - The Group completed the construction of the Hainan Boao Zero-Carbon Demonstration Zone Project in the first quarter of 2023 [30]. - The Sichuan Yibin Second Household Waste-to-energy Project was secured, marking the Group's first implementation of an asset-light business model in the second quarter of 2023 [33]. - The Group entered the Yunnan waste-to-energy market through the acquisition of the Yunnan Zhaotong Waste-to-energy Project in the third quarter of 2023 [35]. - The Group established a strategic partnership with China Construction Bank to enhance cooperation on integrated financial services solutions in the fourth quarter of 2023 [37]. - The Group solidified its traditional business advantages and made breakthroughs in county-level markets and overseas markets, achieving a more diversified business portfolio [47]. Operational Efficiency and Innovation - The Group established a shared ecosystem for technological innovation, focusing on digitalizing business management and fostering scientific research [50]. - The management system was further refined to promote standardized organizational work and enhance efficiency through centralized management measures [50]. - The Group's strategic focus includes promoting innovation and transformation to drive high-quality development and operational competitiveness [169]. - The Group's procurement efficiency was boosted through optimized systems and training, further reducing procurement costs [88]. - The Automatic Combustion Control (ACC) system has been implemented in nearly 40 environmental protection projects, enhancing operational efficiency [161]. Environmental Impact - The Group processed 52,440,000 tonnes of household waste, generating 25,865,000,000 kWh of green electricity, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 21,554,000 households, while avoiding 13,948,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions [92]. - The Group treated 1,749,000,000 m³ of wastewater, reducing Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) discharge by 850,000 tonnes during the year [92]. - The Group's cumulative processing of household waste reached 270,365,000 tonnes, providing 131,351,000,000 kWh of green electricity and avoiding 113,015,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions since 2005 [94]. - The environmental energy sector increased waste intake and electricity generation compared to 2022, contributing to enhanced profitability and efficiency [84]. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - The Group has a strategic partnership with the International Coalition for Green Development on the Belt and Road initiative [4]. - The Group's strategic partnerships with major financial institutions and construction companies aim to deepen cooperation in comprehensive financial services and environmental projects [39]. - The Group signed a project cooperation agreement with Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery to develop a zero-carbon park, focusing on rooftop solar energy and user-side energy storage [138]. Future Outlook - The Group aims to become "a World-Class Integrated Environmental Service Provider with Chinese Characteristics" while focusing on high-quality development [51]. - The Group plans to deepen its major responsibilities and consolidate its leading position in solid waste, water-related business, and clean energy sectors [169]. - The Group's proactive "going global" strategy continued to enhance its collaborative ecosystems and business landscape [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's green environmental performance has declined, with a 33.7% year-on-year decrease in EBITDA to 1.48 billion HKD in 2023, down from 2.23 billion HKD in 2022. However, the acceleration of national subsidies for biomass projects in 2024 is expected to improve cash flow [1]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with the expected net profit for 2024 and 2025 revised to 4.573 billion HKD and 4.715 billion HKD, respectively. A new forecast for 2026 has been added at 4.840 billion HKD. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 4.1, 4.0, and 3.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating that the company's valuation is over 50% lower than comparable companies [1][3]. - The company has seen a shift in revenue structure, with operational income increasing as construction revenue declines. In 2023, operational and financial income accounted for 76% of total revenue, up 11 percentage points from 2022 [3]. - The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, with capital expenditures projected to continue decreasing. The dividend payout ratio is around 30%, with potential for an increase as free cash flow improves [3]. - The company maintains its leading position in the waste-to-energy industry, with a waste processing capacity of 158,900 tons per day as of the end of 2023, remaining the largest global operator in this sector [3]. - The water services segment has shown steady profit growth, with a 13.58% year-on-year increase in EBITDA to 2.475 billion HKD in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 32.09 billion HKD in 2023, a 14% decrease year-on-year, while net profit was 4.429 billion HKD, down 4% from the previous year [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 35.622 billion HKD and 36.272 billion HKD, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11% and 2% [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 4.573 billion HKD, 4.715 billion HKD, and 4.840 billion HKD, respectively [4]. Operational Insights - The operational income has increased, with a significant rise in the share of operational and financial income in total revenue, indicating a transition to a more sustainable revenue model [3]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures significantly, leading to an improvement in free cash flow, which is expected to turn positive in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Views - The company is the largest waste-to-energy operator globally, with a significant focus on environmental energy, water services, and new energy sectors. In 2022, it generated revenue of HKD 37.321 billion, with environmental energy contributing 59% [2][14]. - The company is transitioning from external growth to internal growth, as operational revenue has increased significantly, indicating a shift towards a more stable operational phase [2][18]. - The company's cash flow is expected to improve due to subsidy recoveries, enhancing its dividend yield, which has been around 30% historically [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, under the Everbright Group, has developed into the world's largest waste-to-energy operator since its establishment in 1993, with a focus on environmental energy, water services, and new energy [2][14]. - As of June 2023, the company has 188 waste-to-energy projects with a daily processing capacity of 157,200 tons of municipal waste [14][15]. 2. Operational Performance - The operational revenue ratio has increased, with 49% in 2022 and 57% in the first half of 2023, indicating a shift towards operational maturity [2][18]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures, leading to a positive outlook for free cash flow as it transitions from a high capital expenditure phase to a mature operational phase [2][20]. 3. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 37.475 billion, HKD 36.002 billion, and HKD 36.650 billion for 2023-2025, with corresponding net profits of HKD 4.090 billion, HKD 4.115 billion, and HKD 4.250 billion [2][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is low compared to peers, enhancing the attractiveness of its dividend yield, projected at 6.6%, 6.7%, and 6.8% for 2023-2025 [2][6]. 4. Sector Analysis - The waste-to-energy sector is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on operational efficiency, with the company leading in waste processing capacity, which increased from 14.27 million tons/year in 2017 to 46.79 million tons/year in 2022 [2][24]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in economically developed regions, enhancing its operational metrics and profitability [2][30]. 5. Water Services and Green Energy - The water services segment has shown stable growth, with wastewater treatment capacity increasing to 5.77 million tons/day by the end of 2023 [2][35]. - The green energy segment, primarily focused on biomass power generation, is expected to benefit from improved cash flow as government subsidies are anticipated to be received [2][22].

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 环保 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃00257 .HK ＃光dy大Com环pa境ny＃ 港股通（沪/深） dyStockco ＃ 增持 ( i维nve持stS ） d e＃ 自 由现 金流首年转＃正title＃在 望，高派息可期 uggesti on gC e＃ ha n ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 4月 2日 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 事件：光大环境披露 23 年业绩：营收同比-14.0%至 320.9 亿港元，归母净利润同 司 日期 20240328 比下降3.8%至44.3亿港元。单独看H2，营收同比-0.5%至157.9亿港元，归母净 跟 收盘价（港元） 3.04 利润同比-5.3%至16.4亿港元。每股拟派发末期股息8港仙，全年派息比率约31%。 踪 总股本（亿股） 61 点评：全年运营业务收入占比提升10ppt至60%，集团EBITDA利润率提高5.6ppt 报 流通股本（亿股） 61 至40.0%。全年集团运营/建造业务收入同比+2.2%/-41.9%至191.8/76.8亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of HKD 32.49 billion in 2023, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.43 billion, down 4% year-on-year [2][8] - The proportion of operational and financial income rose to 76%, while the impairment in the green environmental protection sector negatively impacted profitability [2] - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in free cash flow in 2024, with a projected turnaround to positive cash flow [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of HKD 32,495 million, down 14% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 4,429 million, down 4% year-on-year [2] - The operational and financial income accounted for 76% of total revenue, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s asset-liability ratio decreased to 65.37%, down 1.79 percentage points [2][8] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was approximately HKD 7.5 billion, with capital expenditures around HKD 7.8 billion, indicating a significant narrowing of the cash flow gap [2] - Free cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2024, supported by a decrease in capital expenditures and improved operational income [2][8] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to HKD 4.468 billion and HKD 4.564 billion, respectively, with a projected net profit of HKD 4.697 billion for 2026 [2] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to remain around 4 times for the next few years, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of HKD 32.09 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and a net profit of HKD 4.43 billion, down 4% year-on-year. The actual performance was better than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 4.34 billion and Wind's median estimate of HKD 4.01 billion [2][6] - The company is expected to see a turning point in free cash flow in 2024, with dividends likely to increase to a higher level. The current dividend yield is 8.07% [2][6] - The company has a strong operational performance, with a waste incineration capacity of 134,000 tons per day and a waste disposal volume of 48.6 million tons, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase and a capacity utilization rate of 99% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 32.09 billion, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 4.43 billion, down 4% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was primarily due to a reduction in new projects and construction revenue [2][6] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 4.55 percentage points to 43.04%, the highest in the past eight years, while the net profit margin increased by 1.69 percentage points to 16.30% [2][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a positive turning point in free cash flow in 2024, driven by a reduction in capital expenditures and optimistic signals regarding national subsidies [2][6] - The company has a total cash dividend of HKD 1.351 billion in 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.51%, indicating stable dividend payments consistent with the past three years [2][6]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was HKD 32,090,207,000, a decrease of 14% compared to HKD 37,321,229,000 in 2022[2] - Profit attributable to equity holders was HKD 4,429,160,000, down 4% from HKD 4,601,939,000 in the previous year[2] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for equity holders was 72.10 HKD cents, compared to 74.91 HKD cents in 2022[4] - The final dividend per share was 8.0 HKD cents, down from 9.0 HKD cents in the previous year, with total annual dividends per share at 22.0 HKD cents compared to 24.0 HKD cents in 2022[2] - Gross profit for the year was HKD 13,811,291,000, slightly down from HKD 14,364,599,000 in 2022[4] - Total comprehensive income for the year was HKD 2,581,444,000, compared to a loss of HKD 3,061,903,000 in the previous year[6] - The company reported a comprehensive EBITDA of HKD 7,124,484,000 for the year, indicating a stable performance despite revenue declines[16] - The company's total liabilities increased from HKD 127,998,905,000 to HKD 123,659,603,000, showing a slight reduction in financial leverage[17] - The total tax expense for the year was HKD 1,827,333,000, an increase from HKD 1,747,983,000 in 2022, marking a rise of 4.5%[28] - Basic earnings attributable to equity holders for 2023 were HKD 4,429,160,000, down from HKD 4,601,939,000 in 2022, indicating a decrease of 3.7%[30] Revenue Breakdown - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the total revenue from external customers was HKD 37,321,229,000, with significant contributions from various segments[15] - The revenue from the Environmental Energy Projects segment was HKD 17,359,810,000, while the Environmental Water Projects segment generated HKD 6,704,684,000[15] - The total reported segment revenue for the year was HKD 38,692,566,000, indicating a strong performance across the business divisions[15] - Revenue from environmental energy project construction services was HKD 4,332,798,000, down from HKD 9,193,065,000 in the previous year, a decrease of about 52.8%[21] - Operating service revenue from environmental energy projects increased to HKD 9,241,305,000 from HKD 8,898,332,000, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.9%[21] - The total customer contract revenue decreased to HKD 26,863,704,000 from HKD 31,969,923,000, a decline of around 16%[21] - Revenue from environmental water project construction services was HKD 2,502,809,000, slightly down from HKD 2,668,060,000, a decrease of about 6.2%[21] - The company’s revenue from green environmental projects construction services decreased to HKD 660,645,000 from HKD 1,297,251,000, a decline of approximately 48.1%[21] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled HKD 142,029,678,000, down from HKD 144,611,892,000 in 2022[7] - Current assets increased to HKD 47,153,146,000 from HKD 45,985,906,000 in the previous year[8] - Total liabilities decreased to HKD 123,660,603,000 from HKD 126,359,361,000 in 2022[8] - Net assets attributable to equity holders increased to HKD 65,523,221,000 from HKD 62,598,893,000 in the previous year[8] - The company's total assets as of December 31, 2023, were HKD 189,182,824,000, while total liabilities were HKD 123,659,603,000[17] - The group's debt-to-asset ratio as of December 31, 2023, was 65%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from 67% at the end of 2022[83] Dividends - The interim dividend per ordinary share for 2023 was 14.0 HK cents, down from 15.0 HK cents in 2022[29] - The proposed final dividend per ordinary share for 2023 is 8.0 HK cents, compared to 9.0 HK cents in 2022[29] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.08 per share for the year ending December 31, 2023, down from HKD 0.09 per share in 2022[96] - The annual general meeting will be held on May 30, 2024, to approve the proposed final dividend[97] Operational Highlights - The company has focused on optimizing its operational management system and reducing costs through digital transformation[41] - The company has made efforts to recover and manage various accounts receivable, negotiating new loan limits with banks[42] - The company has actively expanded financing channels and improved its financing tool portfolio, resulting in reduced financing costs and improved liquidity[42] - The company has engaged in various public welfare activities, with 216 environmental projects participating in public outreach efforts[52] - The company has received multiple awards, including being ranked first in the "2023 Top 50 Environmental Enterprises in China" for the fifth consecutive year[53] - The company has been recognized for its corporate governance and ESG performance, receiving multiple awards in sustainability and social responsibility[56] Environmental Initiatives - The company has implemented 191 waste-to-energy projects, including one O&M project and one EPCO project, with a designed daily processing capacity of 158,900 tons[45] - The company has expanded its overseas market presence in Germany, Poland, Vietnam, and Mauritius[45] - The company has signed multiple contracts for light asset services, with a total contract value of approximately RMB 3.244 billion[47] - The company processed 52,440,000 tons of municipal solid waste, generating 25,865,000,000 kWh of green electricity[50] - The company has achieved a total of 270,365,000 tons of municipal solid waste processed since 2005, providing 131,351,000,000 kWh of green electricity[51] - The company has been recognized as a component of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for eight consecutive years, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development[56] Research and Development - The environmental research institute focused on solid waste, water treatment, and clean energy, establishing flexible research teams to explore hydrogen energy and energy storage technologies[75] - The company has engaged in various public welfare activities, with 216 environmental projects participating in public outreach efforts[52] - The company has received the "2023 Environmental Equipment Technology Innovation Award" for its water-cooled furnace technology, showcasing its leadership in environmental technology[55] Future Outlook - The group aims to focus on high-quality development and strategic growth in solid waste, water, and clean energy sectors in 2024[81] - The company plans to submit its financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, to the Companies Registry in due course[12]