每经AI快讯，港股黄金股今日回暖，截至发稿，潼关黄金(00340.HK)涨4.65%，报2.7港元；灵宝黄金 (03330.HK)涨3.7%，报15.42港元；紫金黄金国际(02259.HK)涨3.39%，报137.3港元；中国黄金国际 (02099.HK)涨2.44%，报138.4港元；山东黄金(01787.HK)涨2.01%，报33.5港元。 ...

东方证券认为，受美联储12月降息预期持续回摆影响，短期伦敦金现价格走势维持震荡。中期来看，该 行仍然看好黄金在美元信用弱化的中期逻辑驱动下持续上行。国投证券表示，随着周五美联储官员偏鸽 发言，市场恐慌情绪有所缓解。该行认为短期市场分歧不改中长期降息周期，持续看好金银等金属，价 格仍有上涨空间。 消息面上，11月21日，多位美联储高级官员集中发表讲话。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，鉴于当前货币 政策仍是温和限制性的，美联储仍认为近期存在降息空间，可以在不危及通胀目标的情况下，将政策立 场更接近中性区间。根据芝商所的美联储观察工具，在威廉姆斯周五发布讲话后，利率期货市场的交易 员对美联储12月降息的概率预期猛增至了约70%。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股今日回暖，截至发稿，潼关黄金(00340)涨4.65%，报2.7港元；灵宝黄金 (03330)涨3.7%，报15.42港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)涨3.39%，报137.3港元；中国黄金国际(02099)涨 2.44%，报138.4港元；山东黄金(01787)涨2.01%，报33.5港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongguan Gold Group is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$3.52, driven by its strong gold exploration expertise and organic growth momentum [1] Investment Positives - The company has a total of 55.0 tons of gold reserves with an average ore grade of 8.26g/t, and expects gold sales volume to reach 2.8 tons in 2025 and 3.4 tons in 2026 [1] - Tongguan Gold's acquisition of Xi'an Hongshang is expected to reduce production costs through value chain consolidation [1] - Zijin Mining's acquisition of a 3.82% stake in Tongguan Gold for US$25 million indicates confidence in the company's asset quality and strategic direction [2] - The anticipated continuation of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to support gold price increases [3][4] Financials and Valuation - Forecasted EPS is HK$0.16 in 2025 and HK$0.23 in 2026, representing a CAGR of 121% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The stock is currently trading at 17.3x 2025 estimated P/E and 11.6x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price implying a 30% upside [5]

Market Overview - On November 19, A-shares opened slightly lower and maintained a fluctuating trend throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index closing flat, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.25 [1] - The total market turnover exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with more than 4,100 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The aquaculture sector saw a strong rise, with Guolian Aquatic Products hitting the 20% daily limit, and several other stocks such as Zangzi Island and Dahu Shares also reaching their daily limits [1] - The lithium mining sector experienced significant gains, with Rongjie Shares and Jinyuan Shares hitting the daily limit [1] - The gas concept sector weakened, with Shengli Shares hitting the daily limit down [1] - Other sectors that performed well included deep-sea technology, gold and jewelry, insurance, lithium extraction from salt lakes, and aerospace military industry, while gas, real estate, Hainan Free Trade Port, photovoltaic glass, and short drama games saw declines [1] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector continued to rise in the afternoon, with Huaron Chemical and Hengguang Shares hitting the 20% daily limit, and several other stocks also reaching their daily limits [2] - As of November 14, the domestic price of 99.5% sulfur in East China was reported at 3,860 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 43% and a year-on-year increase of 166% [2] - Chlorosulfonic acid prices rose by 23.5% in November, with a cumulative increase of over 35% since early August [2] - CITIC Securities reported that the chemical sector is currently trading around three main lines, driven by energy storage demand and the restructuring of supply and demand in upstream lithium battery materials [2] Company Specifics - Huaxia Happiness (600340) touched the daily limit in the afternoon, marking its second consecutive day of a "quasi-limit-up" trend, with nearly 3 billion yuan in trading volume [3] - On November 18, Huaxia Happiness announced that, apart from the major matters disclosed, there were no other undisclosed significant matters [5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huaxia Happiness reported revenue of 3.882 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72.09%, and a net profit of -9.829 billion yuan [5] - As of September 30, 2025, Huaxia Happiness had a debt-to-asset ratio of 96.44%, an increase of 2.76 percentage points from the end of the previous year, with a current ratio of 1.65, down 12.23%, and a quick ratio of 0.42, down 32.26% [5]

Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in gross profit due to rising gold prices and increased sales volume, with a gross profit of approximately 530 million HKD in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 143% [1] - The inclusion in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index is expected to enhance the company's visibility and attract more international investors, thereby improving market liquidity and investment value [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from gold mining operations was approximately 1.029 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of about 60% [1] - The average selling price of mined gold rose from 499 HKD per gram in H1 2024 to 666 HKD per gram in H1 2025, while sales volume increased from approximately 1.19 tons to about 1.44 tons [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 51.5%, driven by increased production and sales volume as well as higher average selling prices [1] Strategic Direction - The company is shifting its business strategy from diversification to focusing on high-return gold mining operations, which has resulted in a significant increase in shareholder profit by 273% compared to the previous period [2] - The company has engaged in vertical and horizontal acquisitions to enhance operational efficiency and expand mineral reserves, including the acquisition of Huasheng Construction Investment Co., Ltd. and Rongchang Investment Co., Ltd. [2] - A metal flow agreement with Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. has been established to support business expansion in the Su Bei County [2] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 703 million HKD, 976 million HKD, and 1.207 billion HKD for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2] - Based on comparable company valuations, a target price of 3.51 HKD is set for 2026, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 times [2]

Market Performance - On November 18, gold stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced significant declines, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) dropping 8.88%, Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) down 5.38%, and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) falling 5.08% [2][3] - In A-shares, Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) fell 3.51%, Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) decreased by 3.34%, and Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) dropped 3.1% [2][3] Gold Price Trends - Spot gold prices faced heavy selling pressure, briefly falling below $4000 per ounce for the first time since November 10, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline [4][5] - As of the latest update, spot gold was reported at $4041.62 per ounce [4] Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices and stocks is primarily attributed to a strengthening US dollar and a cooling expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5][6] - Recent comments from regional Federal Reserve presidents opposing further rate cuts have contributed to market sentiment, emphasizing ongoing inflation concerns [6][7] Market Outlook - Short-term adjustments in the gold market are expected to continue, with institutions predicting a return to a price correction phase following previous optimistic expectations [9][10] - Despite recent declines, gold prices remain elevated, with a year-to-date increase of over 53%, supported by factors such as loose monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [11] Industry Recognition - The "Hong Kong 100 Strong" list is set to launch, highlighting the importance of the gold sector in the Hong Kong market, with companies like Zijin Mining (02899.HK) and Lingbao Gold being notable participants [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have declined, leading to a general pressure on gold stocks at the market opening, with notable declines in several companies [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Overnight gold prices faced downward pressure, with New York futures gold closing at $4,074.5 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 0.5% decrease [1] - Spot gold prices fell below $4,010 per ounce, with a decline approaching 2% [1] Group 2: Company Stock Performance - Lingbao Gold (03330) experienced a drop of 3.09% [1] - Zijin Mining International (02259) saw a decrease of 2.94% [1] - Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818) fell by 2.75% [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340) declined by 2.51% [1] - China Gold International (02099) decreased by 2.05% [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tongguan Gold Group, targeting a price of HKD 3.51 based on a 2026 PE of 18.5 times [3]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from an increase in both gold prices and production volume, with a significant rise in gross profit by 143% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The group has been included in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, enhancing its visibility in the capital markets and attracting international investors [4]. - The strategic focus has shifted towards high-return gold mining operations, leading to a remarkable 273% increase in shareholder profit for the first half of 2025 [4]. - Expansion through mergers and acquisitions is a key strategy, with recent acquisitions aimed at enhancing production efficiency and mineral reserves [4]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are HKD 703 million, HKD 976 million, and HKD 1.207 billion, respectively, reflecting substantial growth [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 2.145 billion in 2025 to HKD 3.280 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from HKD 0.14 in 2025 to HKD 0.23 in 2027 [4]. Major Financial Data and Predictions - The company’s revenue for 2024 is estimated at HKD 1.605 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [4]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve significantly, reaching 56.46% by 2027 [22]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 18.78 in 2025 to 10.94 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation [22]. Business Operations - Tongguan Gold Group primarily engages in gold exploration and mining, with a focus on enhancing production capacity and profitability through strategic acquisitions [8]. - The company has successfully integrated several mining operations, significantly increasing its asset base and gold resources [17]. - Recent acquisitions include Huasheng Construction Investment and Rongchang Investment, aimed at expanding the company’s mineral reserves and operational capabilities [18].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in gold prices has led to a significant drop in Hong Kong-listed gold stocks, with various companies experiencing losses of over 5% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Gold prices continue to fall, with spot gold dropping 0.64% to below $4020 per ounce, influenced by diminishing expectations of a rate cut in the U.S. next month [1] - Major gold stocks in Hong Kong, such as Lingbao Gold and Tongguan Gold, have seen declines of over 5% and 4.6% respectively, reflecting the broader market trend [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - A new tax policy on gold has resulted in increased prices at Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, leading to a noticeable decrease in sales volume for gold jewelry stores [1] - Retailers in Shenzhen, such as Wu Zude, report a significant drop in daily sales from three to four hundred grams to less than 200 grams, indicating a slowdown in purchasing activity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a decline, with Lingbao Gold falling over 6% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Tongguan Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and China Gold International, also saw declines [1]