Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the "peak summer" period, there may be adjustments in the pace of coal price recovery, but with the heating season starting in October, coal price support is expected to strengthen again, indicating that the low point of coal prices in June may be the lowest for the year [1][5] - The coal industry is expected to see a rational release of supply in the second half of the year, combined with marginal improvements in demand, leading to an overall rebound in coal prices, which will aid in the recovery of industry profitability [1][2] - The domestic electricity demand is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted year-on-year growth rate of 5-6% by 2025, and an expected improvement in coal demand in the second half of the year compared to the first half [3] Group 2 - Policy adjustments are expected to lead to a more rational coal supply, reducing the "quantity compensates for price" situation and enhancing safety and sustainability in the industry [4] - Coking coal prices are anticipated to rebound, but the sustainability of this rebound will depend on whether production cuts are realized and if iron and steel production meets expectations [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks and those with high profit elasticity in the short term, while favoring companies with strong resource endowments and cost advantages in the long term, including China Shenhua (601088), China Coal Energy (601898), and others [7]

必和必拓：2025财年铜产量达202万吨，同比增长8%，铁矿石产量为2.63亿吨，同比增长1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company BHP expects its iron ore production for the fiscal year 2026 to be between 284 million tons and 296 million tons, based on 100% WAIO [1] - The company also anticipates its copper production for the fiscal year 2026 to be between 1.8 million tons and 2 million tons [1] Group 1 - BHP's projected iron ore production for FY2026 is between 284 million tons and 296 million tons [1] - BHP's projected copper production for FY2026 is between 1.8 million tons and 2 million tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) has experienced a significant decline in both share count and total assets in 2024, indicating potential challenges in attracting investment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) was established on September 4, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of July 8, 2024, the fund had a total of 47.508 million shares and a total size of 66.131 million yuan, down from 123 million shares and 146 million yuan at the end of 2024, representing a 61.38% decrease in shares and a 54.81% decrease in size year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Performance - The cumulative trading amount for the ETF over the last 20 trading days was 150 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 7.4938 million yuan [1]. - The current fund manager, Li Qian, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 39.20% during her tenure [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include Far East Horizon, Shougang Resources, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, VTECH Holdings, Kerry Properties, Minsheng Bank, Henderson Land, China Petroleum, Sinopec, and Fufeng Group, with respective holding percentages and market values detailed [2]. - The largest holding is Far East Horizon at 3.78%, followed closely by Shougang Resources at 3.72% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The overall profit from blast furnace steel production is considered satisfactory, and the profit recovery for general steel companies may accelerate [3]. - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the steel industry's overall profit is expected to decline, but with the implementation of various "stability growth" policies, steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [4]. - The report highlights that general steel companies, which are less affected by export tariffs, may see significant performance improvements due to the marginal recovery in demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 0.94% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in special steel (0.28%), long products (0.36%), and flat products (1.21%) [3][11]. 2. Supply Data - As of May 23, the average daily pig iron production was 2.436 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.17 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 6.71 tons [28]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 2.93 percentage points to 59.5% [28]. 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 9.046 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 92,000 tons, reflecting a 1.01% decline [37]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 1.47 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.33% decrease [37]. 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.606 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 331,000 tons, or 3.33% [45]. - Factory inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons, up 0.99 tons week-on-week, but down 6.67% year-on-year [45]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for general steel was 3,452.2 yuan/ton, down 33.36 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.96% [51]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,652.6 yuan/ton, down 3.32 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.05% [51]. 6. Profitability - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 88 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 14.56% [59]. - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies was 59.74%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [59]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong cost control [4].

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks surged today, with all three major indices rising over 2%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% or 532.38 points, closing at 23640.65 points, with a total turnover of 2228.41 million HKD [1] - The positive sentiment in the market is attributed to the unexpected progress in the first round of trade negotiations between China and the US, which is expected to continue in a constructive direction [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - JD Health (06618) saw a notable increase of 5.13%, closing at 39.95 HKD, contributing 3.56 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 16.645 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and operating profit of 1.071 billion RMB, up 119.8% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included China Life (02628) rising by 6.55% to 16.26 HKD, AIA (01299) up 5.15% to 65.3 HKD, while Link REIT (00823) fell by 1.34% to 40.45 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with Baidu increasing over 4% and Alibaba and JD both rising over 3% [3] - Financial stocks experienced a significant rally, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 6.77% to 24.45 HKD, China Life (02628) up 6.55%, and GF Securities (01776) up 6.31% to 11.46 HKD [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector performed well, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) rising by 7.78% to 1.94 HKD and Seafront International (01308) up 6.51% to 22.9 HKD. The improvement is linked to the easing of tariff conflicts and a seasonal increase in container shipping demand [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Li Auto (02015) rising by 4.54% to 112.8 HKD and Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.87% to 81.8 HKD. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [6][5] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed positive movement, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.91% to 8.55 HKD. Despite recent price declines, analysts suggest that demand may improve as summer approaches [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Music (01698) surged by 12.84% to 61.5 HKD, reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 7.36 billion RMB, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - Smoore International (06969) reached a new high, increasing by 10.18% to 17.32 HKD, amid rising sales of new tobacco products [9] - MicroPort Scientific (02252) saw a decline of 8.12% to 16.52 HKD due to a share placement announcement [10] - Samsonite (01910) dropped by 8.58% to 14.06 HKD after reporting a 7.3% decrease in net sales for Q1 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that daily pig iron production remains high, with an average of 2.4564 million tons as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.22 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 149,700 tons [5][6]. - The steel market has shown a positive performance, with the steel sector rising by 2.09%, outperforming the broader market [5][13]. - The report indicates a marginal improvement in downstream demand, supported by increased funding availability for construction projects, which is expected to bolster steel demand [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 2.09%, with sub-sectors such as special steel up by 3.41% and long products up by 1.90% [5][15]. - The average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.1%, a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points [28]. 2. Production Data - As of May 9, the total production of five major steel products was 7.64 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 93,600 tons, or 1.21% [27]. - Daily pig iron production was reported at 2.4564 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.49% [28]. 3. Consumption Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.452 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 125,660 tons, or 12.94% [38]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 103,000 tons, down 8.58% week-on-week [38]. 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 10.33 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 93,500 tons, or 0.91% [46]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.43 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 19.62%, or 4.63% [46]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,453.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37.38 yuan/ton, or 1.07% [52]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,650.3 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 2.55 yuan/ton [52]. 6. Profitability - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2,297 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.0 yuan/ton [60]. - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [60]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index, which has seen a decline of 7.31% in the past month, 8.77% in the past three months, and 10.93% year-to-date [1] - The top ten holdings of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index include China National Offshore Oil (41.44%), PetroChina (17.49%), China Shenhua Energy (13.95%), Sinopec (13.62%), and others, indicating a concentration in a few major companies [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industries in the Hong Kong market, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The market segments represented in the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with fuel refining accounting for 42.01%, integrated oil and gas companies for 31.12%, and coal for 24.17% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2] - Adjustments to the index samples occur in response to special events affecting the companies, such as mergers or delistings, ensuring the index remains reflective of the current market landscape [2]

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the revenue decreased by 14% to HK$5,057 million compared to HK$5,891 million in 2023[20] - Gross profit for the same period fell by 25% to HK$2,588 million, with a gross profit margin of 51%, down from 59% in 2023[20] - Profit attributable to owners of the Company decreased by 21% to HK$1,494 million, compared to HK$1,889 million in 2023[20] - EBITDA for 2024 was HK$3,088 million, reflecting a 21% decline from HK$3,924 million in 2023[20] - The Group's net profit for 2024 was HK$1.81 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to HK$1.49 billion, a decrease of 21% from the previous year[57] - Basic earnings per share decreased to HK30.12 cents, down approximately 20% YoY, consistent with the decrease in profit attributable to the owners[86] - The Group's net profit for the year was approximately HK$1,815 million, a decrease of approximately 21% YoY, primarily due to a drop in gross profit by approximately HK$878 million or 25% YoY[81] Assets and Liquidity - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, increased by 2% to HK$22,949 million from HK$22,492 million in 2023[22] - Cash and cash equivalents rose by 16% to HK$9,181 million, up from HK$7,945 million in 2023[22] - The current ratio improved by 7% to 4.25 times in 2024, compared to 3.97 times in 2023[22] - The Group maintained a healthy financial position with free bank balances and cash of approximately HK$9,181 million as of 31 December 2024, an increase from HK$7,945 million in the previous year[88] - The Group's current ratio was approximately 4.25 times, with cash and bank deposits totaling approximately HK$10.118 billion as of December 31, 2024[138] - The Group's free cash resources increased by 15% to approximately HK$9.196 billion as of December 31, 2024, compared to approximately HK$8.032 billion as of December 31, 2023[139] Production and Sales - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the Group produced approximately 4.96 million tonnes of raw coking coal, a year-on-year decrease of 6% from 5.25 million tonnes in 2023[70] - The production of clean coking coal was approximately 3.16 million tonnes, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3% from 3.25 million tonnes in 2023[70] - The sales volume of clean coking coal increased by 1% year-on-year, with both 2024 and 2023 fiscal years accounting for 100% of the Group's revenue[74] - The average selling price of clean coking coal decreased by 14% to RMB1,666 per tonne[57] - The average realized selling price of clean coking coal decreased by 14% year-on-year to RMB 1,666 per tonne, down from RMB 1,932 per tonne in 2023[75] - The sales volume of low-sulfur clean coking coal dropped significantly by 95% year-on-year, while medium-high sulfur clean coking coal accounted for 99% of total clean coking coal sales volume[75] Market Conditions - The coking coal market faced weak demand and loose supply conditions in FY 2024, leading to a decline in coal prices to the lowest levels in four years, negatively impacting financial performance[168] - Coking coal prices showed a volatile downward trend, particularly in the latter half of the year, due to sluggish steel demand and low inventory strategies adopted by steel companies[183] - The steel industry achieved a 22.7% year-on-year export growth, helping to mitigate domestic demand shortfalls[182] - China's crude steel output in 2024 was 1.005 billion tonnes, a 1.7% year-on-year decline, while pig iron production fell to 852 million tonnes, down 2.3%[53] - The average selling price of clean coking coal was RMB 1,666 per tonne, down 14% from RMB 1,932 per tonne in the previous year[78] Strategic Initiatives - The Group aims to enhance production management and cost control while increasing production capacity and resources through acquisitions to improve profitability[177] - The Group plans to accelerate the construction of intelligent coal mines and explore innovative applications of AI technology in coal production and operations[64] - The Group aims to deepen strategic initiatives, including technological upgrades, digital management, and smart mine construction to improve production and safety standards[189] - The company plans to shift its production focus from hard coking coal to semi-hard coking coal starting in 2024[37] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The proposed final dividend per share for 2024 is HK$21.0 cents, an increase of 7% from HK$18.0 cents in 2023[20] - The Group paid total cash dividends of approximately HK$1,396 million during the year, down from approximately HK$2,031 million in the previous year[88] - The Group has proposed a final dividend of 21 Hong Kong cents per ordinary share for 2024, reflecting its commitment to providing stable returns to shareholders[66] Economic Environment - The Chinese economy achieved a GDP growth target of 5.0% in 2024, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies[50] - The global economic environment remains challenging, with rising protectionism and tariff barriers likely to depress overall demand in the steel industry[184] - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, with plans to expand local government special bonds to CNY 4.4 trillion, focusing on infrastructure and resolving local government debts[187] Compliance and Governance - The company has complied with relevant laws and regulations in both the PRC and Hong Kong throughout the reporting period[164] - The Group emphasizes its commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) responsibilities, reflecting its proactive performance in sustainable development[194] - The company was rated Grade A in the "2024 Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listed Companies Energy Sector ESG Performance TOP 10," ranking sixth overall[154]