Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season in China is expected to see record-high passenger flow and transportation volume across railways and civil aviation, with significant increases in both sectors compared to previous years [1][4]. Railway Sector - The China National Railway Group anticipates sending 539 million passengers during the Spring Festival travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, representing a 5% year-on-year increase [1]. - On peak travel days, over 14,000 passenger trains are expected to operate, with a 5.3% increase in seating capacity compared to the previous year [1]. - The railway ticketing service will enhance support for key passenger groups, including additional discounts for college graduates and continued services for students and workers [1][3]. Civil Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is projected to transport 95 million passengers during the Spring Festival, with a daily average of 2.375 million passengers, marking a 5.3% increase [4]. - Major airlines are expected to operate 657,000 flights, also reflecting a 5% increase year-on-year [4]. - The top three airlines (China Eastern, Air China, and China Southern) will account for 43% of the flights, while the top 20 airlines will represent 90% of the total operations [4]. Ticket Pricing and Trends - As of January 15, 2026, the average pre-sale price for domestic economy class tickets during the Spring Festival is 1,064 yuan (including tax), which is 20% higher than the actual transaction price from the previous year [5]. - The peak ticket prices are expected around the Spring Festival, with significant price drops possible for travelers who adjust their travel dates [5]. - Popular domestic travel destinations are dominated by southern cities, with Shantou leading in booking growth at 186% year-on-year [5]. International Travel - During the Spring Festival, outbound travel is primarily focused on Southeast Asia, with Thailand being the most popular destination [6]. - There has been a significant reduction in flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 36% for flights during the travel period [6]. - The demand for customized outbound travel packages has increased, with an 18% rise in pre-orders for long-haul trips [6].

2026年寒假及春节出行高峰将至， 国航在多条国际及地区航线上， 临时增班、加密， 让您的出行更便捷。 快来看看哪些航线有新变化， 提前规划您的旅程吧！ | 航线 | 航班号 | 离港时刻 | 班期 | 执行日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京首都-奥克兰 | CA579/80 | 17:10 | 五六日 | 1月23日-3月1日 | | 北京首都-悉尼 | CA581/82 | 21:50 | 五六日 | 1月23日-3月1日 | 欧洲 港澳台地区 | 航线 | 航班号 | 离港时刻 | 班期 | 执行日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重庆-香港 | CA565/6 | 13:35 | 每日 | 1月25日-3月15日 | | 武汉-澳门 | CA119/20 | 13:10 | | 2月10日-2月21日 | 亚洲 | 航线 | 航班号 | 离港时刻 | 班期 | 执行日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京首都-曼谷 | CA563/4 | 17:30 | 包日 | 12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current premium rates of AH shares, with Northeast Electric, Zhejiang Shibao, and Junda Co. leading in premium rates, while CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and China Merchants Bank are at the bottom of the list [1][2]. Premium Rate Rankings - Northeast Electric (00042) has a premium rate of 815.25%, followed by Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 378.67% and Junda Co. (02865) at 342.63% [2]. - The lowest premium rates are recorded for CATL (03750) at -13.79%, Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -2.52%, and China Merchants Bank (03968) at -2.22% [1][2]. Deviation Values - Junda Co. (02865) has the highest deviation value at 104.89%, followed by Goldwind Technology (02208) at 23.62% and Guanghetong (00638) at 20.17% [1][2]. - The lowest deviation values are for Northeast Electric (00042) at -35.64%, Chenming Paper (01812) at -16.87%, and China Life (02628) at -15.34% [1][4]. Additional Insights - The report includes a detailed table of the top ten and bottom ten AH stocks based on premium rates and deviation values, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market situation [2][3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for mainland Chinese airlines [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for airlines in mainland China [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the prevalent practice of airlines locking certain economy class seats, which limits consumer choice and is seen as a method for airlines to increase revenue through service tier differentiation [1][2] Group 1: Airline Practices - A survey conducted by the Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee revealed that none of the 10 major airlines fully open all economy class seats for selection, indicating that seat locking has become a common practice in civil aviation services [1] - The airlines surveyed include Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Shandong Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [1] Group 2: Seat Locking Statistics - The proportion of locked seats during the purchasing phase varies significantly among the surveyed airlines, ranging from 19.9% to 62.1%, with an average of 38.7% [1] - Specific routes with high seat locking include Spring Airlines' "Nanjing-Lanzhou" route, which has over 60% of economy seats locked, and Shenzhen Airlines' "Shenzhen-Zhanjiang" route, with over 50% locked [1] Group 3: Consumer Concerns - Consumers have raised questions regarding the reasons for seat locking, the extent of locked seats, unlocking methods, and related rules, but airline customer service responses have been vague regarding these issues [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 0.04%, down 11 points, closing at 26,552 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.66% with a trading volume of HKD 129.8 billion in the morning session [1] - Pop Mart (09992) surged over 8% as the company repurchased shares worth HKD 251 million [1] - Major airlines continued to rise, with strong expectations for industry growth; China Southern Airlines (01055) increased by 3.72%, China Eastern Airlines (00670) by 4.56%, and Air China (00753) by 2.5% [1] Group 2 - Weisheng Holdings (03393) rose nearly 9%, reaching new highs as the State Grid increased its investment scale, indicating a favorable phase for smart meter investments [2] - Health Road (02587) increased by over 4% after the controlling shareholder extended the lock-up period, and the company repurchased 327,000 shares recently [3] - Blucube (00325) rose against the trend by 3.95%, benefiting from the expansion of China's trendy toy industry and the enrichment of its IP system and product matrix [4] Group 3 - Hou Shang Ayi (02589) saw a rise of over 10% as its 25-year performance forecast exceeded expectations, with net profit expected to grow by up to 60% year-on-year [5] - Gigadevice (03986) increased by over 5%, reaching a new high as Micron reported worsening shortages of memory chips, indicating that supply tightness will persist beyond this year [6] - Damai Entertainment (01060) rose over 4% after announcing its entry into the museum sector, positioning itself to benefit from the upgrading of consumer structures [7] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector experienced declines, with Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) dropping by 6.9% and Goldwind Technology (02208) falling by over 3% [8] - Jiayuan Ankang-B (02617) fell over 9% as it proposed a placement to raise HKD 190 million, primarily for core product development [9]

Group 1 - Major airlines in China continue to rise, with Eastern Airlines (00670) up by 4.74% to HKD 5.97 [1] - Southern Airlines (01055) increased by 3.72% to HKD 6.13 [1] - Air China (00753) saw a rise of 2.65% to HKD 7.36 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China are experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by increasing travel demand as universities close for holidays and commercial travel resumes, alongside a significant increase in ticket sales for the upcoming Spring Festival travel season [1] Group 1: Airline Stock Performance - China Southern Airlines (600029) shares rose by 3.21% to HKD 6.1 - China Eastern Airlines (00670) shares increased by 2.63% to HKD 5.85 - Air China (601111) shares climbed by 2.23% to HKD 7.33 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecast - Guotai Junan Securities notes that with the holiday season approaching and commercial travel recovering, there is a noticeable rebound in air travel volume and pricing [1] - The firm anticipates strong demand for the 2026 Spring Festival, with a significant increase in ticket sales [1] - The Chinese aviation supply has entered a low growth phase, and with market-driven ticket pricing, steady demand and improved revenue management by airlines are expected to drive sustainable profitability [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Zhongtai Securities highlights that favorable oil and exchange rates are likely to continue, coupled with the "anti-involution" initiative and the Spring Festival holiday, creating strong expectations for improved air travel volume and pricing [1] - The cyclical effect of civil aviation volume and pricing is gradually becoming evident, with high passenger load factors and industry initiatives expected to drive industry prosperity beyond expectations [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on investment opportunities in the aviation sector [1]