港股航空股逆势上涨，其中，中国东方航空涨3.6%刷新阶段新高，年内累计涨幅达65%，美兰空港涨超 1%，中国国航、中国南方航空涨0.6%。 消息上，近期航司机场发布三季报，其中三季度国航归母净利润同比减少11%，东航归母净利润同比增 加34%，南航归母净利润同比增加20%。 有机构指出，"反内卷"将保障Q4淡季减亏与全年扭亏。中国航空具长逻辑，考虑票价市场化，需求稳 健增长与客源结构优化将驱动2026年航司盈利中枢开启上升。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 4.310 3.61% | | 00357 | 美兰空港 | 10.620 1.14% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 5.900 0.51% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 4.840 0.62% | ...

Group 1 - The performance of four mainland airlines in Q3 showed divergence, with China Eastern Airlines experiencing the strongest net profit growth of 34% year-on-year, followed by China Southern Airlines with a 20% increase. Spring Airlines and Air China saw net profit declines of 6% and 11%, respectively [1] - Revenue per available seat kilometer exceeded expectations, with stable data reported for September. The decline in fuel costs is expected to benefit the overall cost structure, although the unit cost performance excluding fuel varied, with Air China lagging in cost optimization [1] - Adjustments were made to Air China's 2025 profit forecast, changing from a loss of 54 million yuan to a profit of 473 million yuan, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 5.7% and 4.2%, respectively. China Southern Airlines' 2025 profit forecast was reduced by 54%, but forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 16% and 14%. China Eastern Airlines' forecasts for 2025 to 2027 were increased by 56%, 0.8%, and 0.7%, respectively. Spring Airlines' 2025 profit forecast was lowered by 2.7%, with 2026 and 2027 forecasts remaining unchanged [1] Group 2 - The firm reiterated "underperform" ratings for Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines due to ongoing pressure on domestic ticket prices, which pose downside risks to profits in 2025 and 2026. Conversely, a "buy" rating was maintained for Spring Airlines, attributed to its cost leadership position and expected stable growth in 2025 and 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of four mainland Chinese airlines in Q3 showed significant divergence, with Eastern Airlines reporting the strongest net profit growth of 34% year-on-year, followed by Southern Airlines with a 20% increase. In contrast, Spring Airlines and Air China experienced declines in net profit of 6% and 11%, respectively [1] Group 1: Airline Performance - Eastern Airlines achieved the highest net profit growth at 34% year-on-year [1] - Southern Airlines followed with a net profit increase of 20% year-on-year [1] - Spring Airlines and Air China reported net profit declines of 6% and 11%, respectively [1] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue per available seat kilometer exceeded expectations, with stable data reported for September [1] - A decline in fuel costs is expected to benefit the overall cost structure [1] - Excluding fuel, unit cost performance varied, with Air China lagging in cost optimization [1] Group 3: Ratings and Future Outlook - The firm reiterated a "underperform" rating for Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to ongoing pressure on domestic ticket prices, posing downside risks to profits in 2025 and 2026 [1] - A "buy" rating was maintained for Spring Airlines, attributed to its cost leadership position and expected stable growth in 2025 and 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 129.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year [3]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 49.1 billion yuan, a 0.9% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decrease of 11% year-on-year, primarily due to high non-fuel costs [3]. - The company is adapting to industry changes by maintaining a balanced pricing strategy, with domestic passenger kilometer revenue down 3.0% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s operating revenue was 129.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.64 billion yuan [3]. - The third quarter's unit non-fuel costs remained high, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while fuel costs decreased by 6.7% [4]. - The company’s financial expenses improved, with interest expenses down by 598 million yuan year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to raise 20 billion yuan through a new share issuance to enhance liquidity for its subsidiary, Shenzhen Airlines, which has been in a state of insolvency since 2022 [5]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.04 billion yuan in 2025, 5.98 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.22 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 136, 24, and 17 [6][11]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 166.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 198.7 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 18.1% in 2024 and gradually decreasing thereafter [12].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic civil aviation industry in China is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with the three major state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025 after years of losses [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Major Airlines - All three major state-owned airlines reported revenue growth and profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the summer travel peak and foreign exchange gains [2]. - Air China achieved a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 2.10 billion yuan and 2.31 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The three major airlines had accumulated losses exceeding 200 billion yuan over the past five years, but signs of recovery are evident, with expectations for profitability in 2025 [3]. Group 2: International Market Growth - The international market has become a key growth area for major airlines, with significant increases in passenger turnover on international routes compared to domestic routes [4]. - For the first nine months of the year, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported international passenger turnover growth rates of 14.9%, 24.16%, and 19.54%, respectively, compared to domestic growth rates of 1.2%, 6.08%, and 4.10% [4]. - China Eastern Airlines has been actively expanding its international routes, including the launch of a new route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, which will set a record for the longest single-route flight [4]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Private Airlines - Private airlines such as Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines reported declines in net profit for the first three quarters, with Spring Airlines losing its title as the "most profitable airline" to Hainan Airlines [6]. - Despite increased flight and passenger volumes, many airlines are struggling to achieve profitability due to lower ticket prices driven by intense competition and market dynamics [7]. - The average ticket price has decreased significantly, with a drop of over 20% in February and more than 8% during the peak summer months, impacting overall profitability [7][8].

Core Points - The meeting aimed to summarize experiences in the ideological and political construction of the pilot workforce and to analyze new challenges, ensuring the integration of party building and business development for high-quality growth in the aviation sector [4][8] - The meeting gathered leaders from 16 major airlines and regulatory bodies in the Southwest region to discuss the foundational and strategic importance of pilot ideological and political construction [4][6] - The meeting emphasized the need for a stable and safe pilot workforce, aligning with the directives from the central government and the Civil Aviation Administration [4][6] Summary by Sections Meeting Objectives - The meeting was convened to discuss the ideological and political construction of the pilot workforce, reflecting on the recent 20th Central Committee's decisions and the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [4][6] - It served as a concrete action to ensure safety and promote high-quality development in the Southwest aviation sector [4][8] Participant Contributions - Representatives from various airlines shared valuable experiences, practices, and insights regarding the improvement of pilot ideological and political construction [4][5] - The discussions were multi-faceted, providing a broad perspective on existing issues and generating actionable suggestions for future work [4][5] Key Takeaways - The meeting concluded with three main requirements: enhancing party leadership, improving political awareness for winter safety operations, and ensuring the completion of annual tasks [6][7] - A summary of four key opinions was provided, focusing on reviewing progress, addressing existing challenges, setting clear goals, and employing systematic thinking for pilot workforce management [7][8]

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：昊 10月30日晚，中国国航发布三季报，前三季度公司营业收入为1298亿元，同比增长1.3%，归母净利润为18.7亿元，同比增长37.3%。其中，第三季度实现营业收入491亿元，同比增长0.9%， 同日，中国国航还公告，拟以6.57元/股的价格，向公司控股股东及关联方中航集团和中航控股定向增发，合计募资不超过200亿。 三季报和定增计划宣布次日，中国国航A股和H股分别大跌8.07%和6.87%，市场反馈消极。 事实上，中国国航前三季度归母净利润已落至三大航最末，其中第三季度逆势下滑，业绩明显低于预期。此外，公司毛利率、净利率和客座率均位列七大上市航司最末，主要财务指标和经营指标 近几年来，中国国航接连融资，其中A股融资210亿，H股融资20亿港元，但负债率仍接近88%，明显高于南航和东航。 值得注意的是，此次中国国航6.57元的定增价低于当日8.55元的收盘价达23%，这种向大股东低价增发变相进行"债转股"的操作，将摊薄其他股东权益，侵害中小股东利益。 三季度业绩逆势下滑 主要经营指标垫底上市航司 受三季度业绩走势分化影响，国内航司的竞争格局正在发生变化，三大航座次重排。 ...

Core Insights - The three major Chinese airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, reported strong financial performance in Q3, marking a significant recovery from previous losses and achieving profitability for the first three quarters post-pandemic [1][7] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Southern Airlines reported total revenue of 137.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, with a net profit of 2.31 billion yuan, up 17.40% [2][3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved total revenue of 106.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, with a net profit of 2.10 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [4][5] - Air China reported total revenue of 129.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, up 37.31% [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery in domestic travel demand and the gradual restoration of international flights contributed to the improved financial results of the airlines [1][7] - China Southern Airlines has focused on enhancing service experience and dynamic pricing strategies to strengthen its competitive edge against low-cost carriers and high-speed rail [3][6] - The overall recovery of the aviation industry is still ongoing, with international capacity not yet reaching pre-2019 levels, indicating potential for future growth [3][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite the recovery of the three major state-owned airlines, private carriers like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced declines in profitability during the same period [7][8] - Hainan Airlines has emerged as the most profitable airline in the first three quarters, surpassing Spring Airlines, attributed to effective capacity management and operational efficiency [7][8] - The industry is facing challenges such as intense competition and pricing pressures, which have affected profitability across various airlines [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines reported a mixed performance in its Q3 financial results, with a significant decline in net profit and a proposed low-priced share issuance that may dilute minority shareholders' interests [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 129.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 billion yuan, up 37.3% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the revenue was 49.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% increase, while the net profit dropped to 3.68 billion yuan, a decline of 11.3% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company's net profit for the first three quarters was the lowest among the three major airlines, with Q3 performance being particularly disappointing compared to its peers [3][4]. Share Issuance and Market Reaction - The company announced a plan to issue shares at 6.57 yuan each, which is 23% lower than the closing price of 8.55 yuan on the day before the announcement, aiming to raise up to 20 billion yuan [2][11]. - Following the announcement of the Q3 results and the share issuance plan, the company's A-shares and H-shares fell by 8.07% and 6.87%, respectively, indicating negative market sentiment [1][11]. Debt and Financial Health - Despite raising significant funds in recent years, including 21 billion yuan from A-shares and 2 billion Hong Kong dollars from H-shares, the company's debt ratio remains high at approximately 88%, which is notably higher than its competitors [2][9]. - The funds from the new share issuance are intended for debt repayment and to supplement working capital, but the high debt level raises concerns about financial stability [7][8][11]. Operational Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 7.06% and a net margin of 1.05%, both of which are the lowest among the seven listed airlines [4][6]. - The passenger load factor was 81.3%, also trailing behind its competitors, despite transporting approximately 120 million passengers in the first three quarters [6].

Core Viewpoint - China International Airlines (Air China) reported a revenue of 129.826 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, and a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 37.31% [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Air China generated a revenue of 80.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but reported a net loss of 1.806 billion yuan, the largest loss among the three major state-owned airlines [2] - In the third quarter of 2025, Air China's revenue was 49.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit of 3.676 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - The gross profit margin for the third quarter was 13.78%, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 11.3% year-on-year [2] Capacity and Utilization - Air China invested 98.2 billion available seat kilometers (ASK) in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with a passenger load factor of 82.3%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The unit revenue per ASK was 0.499 yuan, a decrease of 1% year-on-year [2] Industry Context - The civil aviation industry in China saw a total of 371 million passengers in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with an average ticket price for economy class decreasing by 6.9% year-on-year [3] - The industry is facing challenges of oversupply, with high-speed rail (HSR) increasingly competing for market share, particularly in short to medium-haul routes [3][6] Strategic Initiatives - Air China plans to raise up to 20 billion yuan through a private placement to repay debts and enhance liquidity, with a share price set at 6.57 yuan per share [6][7] - The company aims to improve its operational efficiency and safety standards, optimize its capital structure, and enhance its profitability and risk resilience [7] Debt Management - As of the third quarter of 2025, Air China's debt-to-asset ratio was 87.88%, showing a declining trend from previous years [7]