公 司 研 究 华福证券 旅游综合 2025 年 03 月 25 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 核心 OTA 盈利能力上行，国际业务快速扩张 投资要点： 经调整净利润高于彭博一致预期，核心 OTA 盈利改善明显： 公 司 财 2024Q4 同程旅行实现营收 42.4 亿元/同比+34.8%，经调整净利润 6.6 亿元/同比+36.8%/经调整净利润率 15.6%，业绩高于预期主要来自 于核心 OTA 业务经营利润率同比+6.8pct 至 28.4%，核心业务盈利能力 明显改善。 业务拆分来看，核心 OTA 收入稳健增长，国际业务快速扩张： 报 点 评 收入端，2024Q4 交通业务收入 17.2 亿元/同比+17.0%，其中国际 机票市场份额快速扩张，全年业务量同比增长超 130%；住宿业务收入 11.4 亿元/同比+28.6%，其中国际酒店保持行业领先增速，全年业务量 同比增长超 110%；其他业务收入 6.0 亿元/同比+14.8%，其中艺龙酒店 科技平台保持扩张趋势，在营酒店规模近 2300 家；度假业务收入 7.8 亿元，产品和服务价值驱动旗下旅行社门店超 1000 家。经营利润端， 2024Q4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The core online travel agency (OTA) platform shows strong growth momentum, with notable performance in international business. In Q4 2024, the core OTA achieved revenue of 3.46 billion yuan (up 20% year-on-year) and an operating profit margin of 28.4% (up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year) [5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 4.24 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan (up 36.8% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company is focusing on vertical expansion in the vacation business, which contributed additional revenue, achieving 780 million yuan in Q4 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a total transaction volume of 54.7 billion yuan (up 2.2% year-on-year) [4]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 41 million in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with the total annual paying user count reaching 238 million (up 1.5% year-on-year) [5]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.5 billion, 22.8 billion, and 25.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.56 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and the recovery of international business [8]. - The company’s market capitalization target for 2025 is set at 49.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 23 HKD per share [8].

Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel Holdings - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) within the China Internet and Other Services sector - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$25.00, representing a 36% upside from the current price of HK$18.38 as of March 20, 2025 [4][4][4] Key Financial Results - **4Q24 Performance**: - Core OTA revenue increased by 20% year-over-year (YoY), exceeding expectations by 1% [2][2] - Total revenue grew by 35%, outperforming estimates by 5 percentage points, driven by a robust tourism sector [2][2] - Adjusted profit rose by 37% YoY, 9% above forecasts, attributed to savings in selling and marketing (S&M) expenses [2][2] - Annual dividend declared at HK$0.18 per share, a 20% increase YoY [2][2] 2025 Outlook - **Valuation**: Currently trading at 13x 2025 estimated P/E, a 35% discount compared to peers like TCOM, marking the deepest discount in three years despite a favorable growth outlook [2][2] - **Margin Guidance**: Management anticipates an upward trend in margins, with a projected improvement of over 1 percentage point for the core OTA business [2][2] Growth Drivers 1. **Domestic Travel Demand**: Management expects OTA revenue growth to be 2-3 times the industry average in 1Q25, targeting 14-19% growth compared to the government's forecast of 6-7% for travel consumption during the Chinese New Year [7][7] 2. **Non-Core Business Growth**: Segments such as advertisement, property management services (PMS), hotel management, and membership are expected to sustain over 30% growth for the year [7][7] 3. **Margin Improvement**: Enhanced efficiency in S&M expenses is anticipated to continue, with a focus on cross-selling strategies [7][7] Risks and Challenges - **Tourism Business Pressure**: The acquired tourism segment may face stagnation due to reliance on low-margin packaged tours to Thailand, but this is expected to have minimal impact on overall profitability [7][7] - **Market Competition**: Potential intensification of competition in lower-tier cities could affect margins and pricing strategies [14][14] Additional Insights - **Market Position**: The company is viewed as undervalued relative to its growth potential, with a strong emphasis on improving operational efficiency and expanding its market share in the OTA space [1][1] - **Financial Metrics**: - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 19.39 billion, with net income expected to reach RMB 3.09 billion [4][4] - The company has shown resilience with a net profit margin of 8.3% in 4Q24, despite a decline from previous quarters [10][10] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tongcheng Travel Holdings, highlighting its financial performance, growth outlook, and potential risks in the current market environment.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 173.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.8%. The core OTA platform is expected to generate 142 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.1% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7% compared to the previous year. The adjusted diluted EPS is estimated to be 1.20 yuan [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a breakeven point in its international business by 2025, with significant growth potential in international ticketing and hotel bookings [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 173.41 billion yuan - 2025: 198.61 billion yuan - 2026: 222.40 billion yuan - 2027: 243.36 billion yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 46%, 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively [2][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is 27.9 billion yuan, with projections of 32 billion yuan in 2025, 39 billion yuan in 2026, and 45 billion yuan in 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to grow from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 1.93 yuan by 2027 [2][6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The adjusted PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.36 in 2024 to 9.50 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][6]. User Engagement and Growth - The company reported a monthly average of 43.1 million paying users in 2024, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with annual paying users reaching 240 million, marking a 1.5% growth [6]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 44%, with the frequency of user consumption rising from 5.5 times in 2019 to 8.1 times in 2024 [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The report highlights improved cost management, with a decrease in service development, sales, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin for the core OTA platform is projected to improve, indicating ongoing enhancements in profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 23.9, representing a potential upside of 30% from the recent closing price of HKD 18.38 [4]. Core Insights - The core OTA business continues to show a robust growth trend, with a 20% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 44% increase in operating profit for the fourth quarter. Overall revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded expectations by 5% and 7%, respectively [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve an 18% year-on-year revenue growth in its core OTA business in 2025, outpacing the industry average, with an operating profit margin projected to improve to 28% [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4, total revenue reached HKD 4.4 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue growing by 20%. Accommodation booking revenue increased by 29%, driven by stable growth in room nights, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 17% due to enhanced monetization from value-added services [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter was HKD 660 million, reflecting a 37% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 15.6% [2][5]. - The average revenue per user (APU) for 2024 is projected to be HKD 2.38 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, with annual user spending calculated at HKD 1,073, up 4% year-on-year [2][3]. AI Product Development - The company has launched its self-developed AI model, Chengxin AI, which integrates with DeepSeek to provide "AI + real-time booking" services. This application of AI is expected to enhance user interaction and order conversion efficiency, with potential long-term cost reduction in operations [3]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The report adjusts the valuation multiple to 16.0 times the 2025 earnings, reflecting improved market sentiment. The target price has been raised to HKD 23.9 from HKD 22.5 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,896 million, with a year-on-year growth of 80.67%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 17,341 million, reflecting a growth of 45.77% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is forecasted at 1,554 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1,164.41%. The net profit for 2024 is anticipated to be 1,974 million, representing a growth of 27.04% [1] - The report highlights a robust performance in the core OTA segment, with a projected revenue growth of 15-20% for 2025, driven by increased user engagement and improved operational efficiency [9][10] Financial Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 17,341 million in 2024 to 25,232 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1,974 million in 2024 to 3,391 million by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] - The report anticipates an increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.85 in 2024 to 1.46 in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [1] User Engagement and Market Position - The average revenue per user (ARPU) has increased by 44%, with the frequency of user purchases rising to 8.1 times annually, up from 7.5 times in 2023 [9] - The company has successfully reduced user subsidies, leading to improved profit margins and operational efficiency [9][10] - The report notes a significant recovery in cross-border travel, contributing to the overall growth of the company's revenue streams [9]

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 34.8% year-on-year from RMB 3,144.5 million in Q4 2023 to RMB 4,237.6 million in Q4 2024[4] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 39.4% year-on-year from RMB 715.9 million in Q4 2023 to RMB 997.7 million in Q4 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increasing from 22.8% to 23.5%[4] - Adjusted net profit increased by 36.8% year-on-year from RMB 482.5 million in Q4 2023 to RMB 660.2 million in Q4 2024, with an adjusted net profit margin rising from 15.3% to 15.6%[4] - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2024 reached RMB 17,340.7 million, a 45.8% increase from RMB 11,896.2 million in 2023[11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 4,050.2 million, up 29.7% from RMB 3,123.9 million in 2023, with an adjusted EBITDA margin decreasing from 26.3% to 23.4%[11] - Adjusted net profit for the fiscal year 2024 increased by 26.7% year-on-year to RMB 2,785.4 million from RMB 2,199.1 million in 2023[11] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 17,340,686 thousand, an increase of 46.0% compared to RMB 11,896,244 thousand in 2023[92] - Net profit for the year was RMB 1,988,266 thousand, up 27.0% from RMB 1,565,563 thousand in the previous year[93] User Growth - Average monthly paying users grew by 9.3% year-on-year from 37.5 million in Q4 2023 to 41.0 million in Q4 2024[4] - The number of annual paying users rose by 1.5% year-on-year from 234.7 million in 2023 to 238.3 million in 2024[11] - The average monthly paying users grew by 4.4% year-over-year to 43.1 million, while annual paying users reached a record high of 238.3 million, up 1.5%[18] - The cumulative service user count for the year reached 1.928 billion, a 9.3% increase from 1.764 billion in 2023[15] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the core online travel platform increased by 22.1% to RMB 14,199.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[35] - Accommodation booking service revenue rose by 19.7% to RMB 4,668.2 million, driven by increased demand and enhanced cross-selling strategies[35] - Transportation ticketing service revenue increased by 19.9% to RMB 7,229.0 million, attributed to higher demand for services and value-added products[37] - Revenue from the accommodation business for Q4 2024 increased by 28.6% to RMB 1,135.1 million, with annual revenue reaching RMB 4,668.2 million, up 19.7%[24] - Revenue from the transportation ticketing service for Q4 2024 grew by 17.0% to RMB 1,723.0 million, with annual revenue of RMB 7,229.0 million, a 19.9% increase[23] - Revenue from other business segments reached RMB 599.2 million in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%[25] - For the full year 2024, revenue from other business segments grew by 35.5% to RMB 2,302.2 million[25] - Revenue from the vacation business in Q4 2024 was RMB 780.2 million, and for the full year, it reached RMB 3,141.2 million[25] Expenses and Costs - Sales cost rose by 97.2% from RMB 3,158.0 million in 2023 to RMB 6,227.2 million in 2024, with the sales cost as a percentage of revenue increasing from 26.5% to 35.8%[40] - Service development expenses increased by 9.9% to RMB 2,000.9 million in 2024, with the proportion of service development expenses to revenue decreasing from 14.7% to 11.0%[41] - Sales and marketing expenses grew by 25.7% to RMB 5,620.7 million in 2024, with the proportion to revenue decreasing from 37.3% to 32.2%[42] - Administrative expenses increased by 69.6% to RMB 1,206.2 million in 2024, with the proportion to revenue rising from 4.1% to 5.4%[43] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2024 amounted to RMB 8,020.0 million, an increase from RMB 5,192.4 million at the end of 2023, marking a rise of 54.5%[77] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was RMB 2,969.88 million, down from RMB 4,003.44 million in 2023, indicating a decrease of 26.0%[78] - The net cash used in investing activities for 2024 was RMB 834.26 million, a decrease from RMB 1,762.22 million in 2023, indicating a reduction of 52.7%[78] - The net cash generated from financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 678.8 million, primarily from net proceeds of long-term and short-term borrowings amounting to RMB 1,415.3 million[81] Corporate Governance and Structure - The company has updated its reporting structure to better reflect its business strategy and financial performance across its core online travel platform and vacation segments[6] - The company has established a new internal reporting structure effective January 1, 2024, separating the reporting of its core online travel platform and offline travel agency and vacation-related businesses[108] - The board of directors consists of both executive and independent non-executive members, ensuring diverse governance[158] Accounting and Compliance - The financial statements are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards and the Hong Kong Companies Ordinance[101] - The company will apply the new accounting standards starting from January 1, 2027, and will restate comparative information for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, in accordance with IFRS 18[107] - The group has not early adopted certain new accounting standards that will come into effect after December 31, 2024, and does not expect significant impacts from these standards[103] Shareholder Information - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, totaling approximately HKD 341.5 million (around RMB 311.7 million) for the year ended December 31, 2023[124] - The company plans to propose a final dividend of HKD 0.18 per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, with an estimated total dividend payout of approximately HKD 419,177,424.06[147] - The record date for the proposed final dividend is July 7, 2025, with share transfer registration suspended from July 3, 2025, to July 7, 2025[149]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core OTA (Online Travel Agency) profitability continues to improve, driven by marketing ROI enhancement and operational efficiency [3][4] - The company is expected to achieve sustained profitability improvement through optimized marketing efficiency and operational leverage [5] - The company's international business is growing rapidly, with international ticket sales increasing by over 110% YoY and international accommodation bookings growing by over 130% YoY in Q3 2024 [5] - The company's marketing strategy has been optimized, leading to a reduction in sales and marketing expenses ratio to 29.2% in Q3 2024, down 9.1 percentage points YoY [5] - The company's user acquisition efficiency has improved, with average monthly paying users reaching 46 million in Q3 2024, a 5.0% YoY increase [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.594 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.8% [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2.199 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.866 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.7% [5] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 64.2% in 2024E to 66.8% in 2026E [5] - Adjusted operating margin is expected to rise from 16.0% in 2024E to 17.1% in 2026E [5] Industry Trends - The tourism industry experienced strong growth during the 2024 National Day holiday, with travel numbers reaching 800 million, a 6% YoY increase [5] - The 2025 Spring Festival travel season is expected to see robust demand, with average ticket prices rising to RMB 810, and international ticket prices reaching nearly RMB 4,000, a 20% increase compared to usual periods [5] - The company has enhanced its outbound service capabilities, particularly in Asia, by strengthening partnerships with international OTAs, hotels, and airlines [5] User Metrics - The company's 12-month ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) reached RMB 70 in Q3 2024, a 53% YoY increase [5] - The company's Black Whale membership program has surpassed 78 million members, with ARPU 2.7 times higher than regular members [5] - The company's 15-day cross-selling rate improved to 12% in Q3 2024, up 2 percentage points YoY [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected adjusted PE of 15/13/11 times for 2024-2026 [1][61] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue reached RMB 4.991 billion, a 51% YoY increase, exceeding guidance, with adjusted net profit of RMB 910 million, up 46.6% YoY [1] - Core OTA revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 4.013 billion, with a significant improvement in profitability, as the core OTA margin increased by 5.9 ppts YoY to 31.3% [1] - The company's user value has improved significantly, with ARPU growing 53% YoY to RMB 70, and GMV monetization rate increasing by 2.2 ppts YoY to 6.9% [1][56] - The company is accelerating its expansion into new traffic sources and international business, with the launch of the HopeGoo platform and the establishment of an overseas headquarters in Singapore [1][59] Business Performance Summary Core OTA Business - Accommodation booking revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion in 24Q3, contributing 34.3% of OTA revenue, driven by increased room nights and improved net take rate [36][40] - Transportation ticketing revenue increased 21% YoY to RMB 2.03 billion, contributing 50.5% of OTA revenue, supported by growth in air ticket sales and improved monetization of train tickets [40][41] - Other OTA business revenue grew 24% YoY to RMB 610 million, mainly driven by hotel management and online travel business growth [41] Vacation Business - Vacation business revenue reached RMB 979 million in 24Q3, up 36% QoQ, achieving a break-even with a 2.4% profit margin [1][42] - The company has expanded its offline store network to over 900 stores by the end of 24Q3 [42] Profitability - The company's adjusted net profit margin improved by 2.7 ppts QoQ to 18.2% in 24Q3, driven by optimized user subsidies, improved international business efficiency, and reduced sales expenses [1][47] - Sales expense ratio decreased by 9.1 ppts YoY and 6.0 ppts QoQ to 29.4% in 24Q3 [1][47] User Metrics and Traffic Expansion - Average monthly paying users reached 46.4 million in 24Q3, up 5% YoY, with user purchase frequency exceeding 8 times per year, compared to 5.5 times in 2019 [1][56] - The company's app DAU surpassed 3 million before the 2024 National Day holiday, a record high, with app traffic contribution increasing from 4% to 8% between August 2023 and August 2024 [1][57] International Business Expansion - The company launched the HopeGoo international travel booking platform in mid-2024, covering six major travel categories and supporting 16 currencies [59] - Through the Yilong Hotel Technology platform, the company has expanded its international guest reception capabilities, with over 400 hotels capable of serving international guests as of July 2024 [59] Future Outlook - Core OTA revenue is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 24Q4, driven by strong performance in accommodation and transportation bookings [1][60] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 17.263 billion, RMB 20.195 billion, and RMB 23.134 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 2.74 billion, RMB 3.252 billion, and RMB 3.872 billion [1][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel with a target price of HKD 20.18 per share, based on a 25-year 13X PE valuation [2][6] Core Views - Tongcheng Travel's 24Q3 GMV grew 2.4% YoY to RMB 72.8 billion, with revenue increasing 51.3% YoY to RMB 4.99 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit for 24Q3 rose 46.6% YoY to RMB 910 million, with an adjusted net margin of 18.2% [1] - 24Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased 51.6% YoY to RMB 1.32 billion, maintaining a 26.4% margin [1] - MPU grew 5% YoY to 46.4 million, while APU increased 3.4% YoY to 230 million, and ARPU surged 53.2% YoY [1] Business Segment Performance - Transportation ticketing revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 2.03 billion in 24Q3 [2] - Accommodation booking revenue increased 22.2% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion in 24Q3 [2] Operational Highlights - Sales expense ratio decreased 9.1pp YoY to 29% in 24Q3, reflecting improved marketing efficiency [2] - International ticket volume grew over 110% YoY, and international hotel room nights increased over 130% YoY in 24Q3 [2] - Cross-selling rate improved to 12% [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow 44.2% YoY to RMB 17.2 billion in 2024, with further growth of 17.2% and 19.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.72 billion in 2024, growing 24.4% YoY, with continued growth of 22.6% and 20.5% in 2025 and 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP EPS is projected to increase from RMB 1.21 in 2024 to RMB 1.78 in 2026 [4]