Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780) [1] Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue in line with forecasts but net profit surpassing both Macquarie's and market consensus by 6% and 8% respectively, driven by strong commission rate expansion [1] - The robust hotel business within the travel services sector is expected to contribute to revenue and profit growth [1] - Macquarie has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel for 2025 and 2026 by 2% to reflect a more favorable profit margin outlook [1] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been increased from HKD 25.1 to HKD 25.5 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic partnership between Tongcheng Travel and the Gyeonggi Tourism Organization of South Korea, focusing on market promotion, product development, and sustainable development initiatives [1][2] - Both parties will develop mid-to-high-end tourism products that cater to the diverse needs of Chinese tourists, leveraging Gyeonggi-do's unique attractions such as filming locations for Korean dramas and Starfield Suwon [2] - The collaboration aims to promote low-carbon travel models in response to global sustainable tourism trends, enhancing the appeal of Gyeonggi-do as a must-visit destination for Chinese travelers [2][3] Group 2 - The partnership is expected to accelerate the penetration of the Gyeonggi-do tourism brand in the Chinese market, which is crucial as China is one of South Korea's most important source markets for tourists [2][3] - Recent data from the Korea Tourism Organization indicates a significant increase in bilateral tourism, with 2.66 million South Korean visitors to China in Q1 2025, marking a 24.1% year-on-year growth [3] - The young demographic (ages 20-40) constitutes over 60% of the Chinese tourists visiting South Korea, indicating a strong market potential for targeted tourism products [3]

Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 13% to 4.4 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1%, primarily driven by better-than-expected transportation revenue [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 780 million yuan, surpassing market expectations by 6%, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 18% attributed to effective cost control [1] Revenue Growth - The tourism consumption remains resilient, with Q2 core OTA business revenue expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 10-15% [1] - In Q1 2025, the number of nights booked met guidance, with international business nights increasing by over 50%, driving revenue growth [1] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and total spending by tourists grew by 8.0% [1] Hotel and Transportation Performance - Q2 2025 hotel revenue is projected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with hotel prices expected to see low single-digit growth due to a shift towards higher-quality products and services [1] - Q1 2025 domestic flight volume remained flat, while international flight volume increased by over 40%, with international ticket revenue accounting for over 5% of transportation revenue [1] - Q2 2025 transportation revenue is expected to grow by 10%, with international business entering a peak season [1] User Engagement and Profitability - Q1 core OTA business revenue grew by 18%, supported by a 9% increase in MPU and improved monetization from reduced user subsidies [2] - Daily Active Users (DAU) for the independent app increased by nearly 60%, surpassing 4 million during the May Day holiday, with independent app revenue accounting for about 7% of core OTA revenue [2] - Q1 2025 core OTA operating profit margin was 29%, exceeding expectations by 3 percentage points due to better-than-expected marketing investments and improved operational efficiency [2] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company maintains its profit guidance of 3.2 to 3.4 billion yuan for 2025, with an ongoing target of achieving breakeven in international business [2] - The target price is set at 23 HKD, corresponding to 15x/12x 2025e and 2026e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an upside potential of 12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth driven by increased domestic travel demand and improved commission rates, leading to a positive outlook for the year [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA and net profit for Q1 2025 were 1.16 billion yuan and 790 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 41.3% and 41.1% [1] - Revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation services, and other businesses were 1.19 billion yuan, 2.00 billion yuan, 590 million yuan, and 600 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +23.3%, +15.2%, -11.8%, and +20.0% respectively [1] Group 2: User Growth and Market Expansion - The average monthly paying users reached 46.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while annual paying users totaled 250 million, up 7.8% [2] - Over the past 12 months, the company served 1.96 billion travelers, marking a 7.3% increase [2] - International ticket sales and hotel night bookings grew by over 40% and 50% year-on-year, respectively, due to effective international expansion strategies [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 68.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points [2] - Management, R&D, and sales expense ratios were 7.0%, 11.3%, and 33.2%, with year-on-year changes of +0.2 percentage points, -1.3 percentage points, and -2.2 percentage points respectively [2] - The adjusted net profit margin was 18.0%, reflecting an increase of 3.6 percentage points, indicating improved profitability due to cost reduction and efficiency measures [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects continued high growth in revenue driven by increasing OTA penetration and improved commission rates, alongside a reduction in losses from international operations [3] - The overall performance for the year is deemed to have strong certainty, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating [3]

Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and an adjusted net profit of 788 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1% [1] - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with ongoing progress in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, and expectations for continued growth in core OTA business scale effects and international business loss reduction [1][2] - The company plans to acquire Wanda Hotel Management to enhance its hotel management capabilities, indicating ongoing optimization of its diversified business [1][3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue growth of 13.2% aligns with previous expectations, while adjusted net profit growth of 41.1% exceeds expectations, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was 1.159 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, with an EBITDA margin of 26.5%, up 5.3 percentage points [1] - Revenue breakdown shows accommodation booking revenue of 1.190 billion yuan (up 23.3% YoY), transportation ticketing service revenue of 2.000 billion yuan (up 15.2% YoY), and other core OTA business revenue of 603 million yuan (up 20.0% YoY) [1] User Engagement - The company has deepened user value, with average monthly paying users reaching 46.5 million (up 9.2% YoY) and annual paying users reaching 250 million (up 7.8% YoY), both hitting record highs [2] - The overall user payment frequency is expected to remain stable, with a focus on youth marketing and a significant increase in daily active users on the app [2] Business Development - The company is enhancing market solutions and sales efficiency, with AI applications improving operational efficiency [3] - In Q1 2025, the company provided cost-effective transportation solutions, with significant growth in product bookings, including a 22% increase in "Huo Huo" intermodal product bookings and a 44% increase in "Kong Kong" intermodal bookings [3] - The company launched AI-driven services, reducing employee workload by 20% and helping hotels reduce labor costs by 30% through AI self-service solutions [3] Strategic Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of 2.52 billion yuan, 3.02 billion yuan, and 3.51 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 3.31 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.26 billion yuan [4] - Current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18X, 15X, and 13X for net profits, and 14X, 12X, and 11X for adjusted net profits for the same period [4]

Group 1 - The company reported a net profit of 790 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%, exceeding the guidance range of 700-750 million yuan [1] - The average monthly paying users increased by 9.2% to 46.5 million [1] - Core-OTA segment revenue grew by 18% to 3.79 billion yuan, with transportation ticketing and accommodation booking revenues of 2.00 billion and 1.19 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 15% and 23% [1] Group 2 - The gross profit margin for Q1 was 68.7%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of Core-OTA and a decrease in the proportion of lower-margin vacation business [1] - The adjusted net profit margin was 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is actively leveraging WeChat traffic for accelerated growth and maintaining high demand in domestic travel while tightening user subsidies to ensure profit levels [1] Group 3 - Following the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 2.50 billion, 3.01 billion, and 3.52 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 3.50 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 13 times [2] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached 1.159 billion yuan, up 41.3% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 788 million yuan, reflecting a 41.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Gross margin improved to 68.8%, up 3.8 percentage points, primarily due to cost optimization in the core OTA business [1] - The adjusted net profit margin increased to 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points [1] Group 2: Business Segments - Core OTA business revenue grew by 18.4%, with operating profit margin at 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points [1] - Accommodation booking revenue was 1.19 billion yuan, a 23.3% increase, driven by high cross-selling rates and over 50% growth in international hotel night stays [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 2 billion yuan, up 15.2%, with significant growth in connecting travel products [1] - Other business revenue was 603 million yuan, a 20% increase, with nearly 2,500 hotels on the platform [1] - Vacation business revenue declined to 585 million yuan, down 11.8%, impacted by safety issues in Southeast Asia [1] Group 3: User Metrics and AI Integration - Monthly active paid users (MPU) reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% increase, while annual paid users (APU) hit 247 million, up 7.9% [2] - Average revenue per user (ARPU) was 72.2 yuan, reflecting a 25.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The platform introduced a new high-tier membership with over 50 additional benefits to enhance user loyalty [2] - AI integration through DeepSeek and the launch of DeepTrip improved user decision-making and internal efficiency, reducing employee workload by 20% [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 1: Core Online Travel Platform - The core online travel platform showed strong growth, achieving a revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [1] - In the transportation ticketing segment, revenue reached 2 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 15%, driven by increased demand and enhanced value-added services, with international ticket sales growing over 40% year-over-year [1] - The accommodation booking segment generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 23% year-over-year, benefiting from high-quality service offerings and strong supplier partnerships, with international hotel night volume increasing over 50% year-over-year [1] - Other segments achieved a revenue of 600 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20%, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management and PMS businesses, with over 2,500 hotels currently operating and more than 1,400 hotels in preparation [1] - The company announced a proposal to acquire 100% of Wanda Hotel Management, which operates in a light-asset model focusing on mid-to-high-end hotel operations and management, enhancing the company's brand portfolio [1] Group 2: Vacation Business and User Performance - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure due to security issues in Southeast Asia, with Q1 2025 revenue declining by 11.8% to 590 million yuan [2] - The company is focused on improving operational efficiency in the vacation segment and exploring user needs in various scenarios [2] - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 9.2%, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year, and cumulative service users growing by 7.3% to 1.96 billion [2] - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with approximately 68% of new paying users from non-first-tier cities, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, international business expansion, and user growth through online and offline traffic [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.7 billion, 3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to diluted EPS of 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5 yuan, and P/E ratios of 16.3, 14.7, and 12.6 times [3] - The target market capitalization for the company in 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][15]. Core Views - The company has shown a robust revenue growth of 13.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by over 40% [10][15]. - The online travel agency (OTA) segment has benefited from the booming travel demand in lower-tier markets, with OTA revenue growing by 18.4% [10][11]. - The company is focusing on improving monetization efficiency and profitability, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 17% for adjusted profits over the next three years [15]. Revenue Summary - Q1 revenue reached 4.377 billion yuan, with OTA revenue contributing significantly to this growth [10][11]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) has increased by 25.6% year-on-year, indicating effective monetization strategies [11]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with transportation, accommodation, and other services growing by 15.2%, 23.3%, and 20.0% respectively [11]. Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin improved by 3.8 percentage points in Q1, driven by enhanced monetization rates in the OTA business [14]. - Sales expense ratio decreased by 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a more disciplined marketing approach [14]. - The management expects core business profit margins to improve year-on-year, supported by ongoing efficiency optimizations [14]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 3.304 billion yuan, 3.885 billion yuan, and 4.535 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][15]. - Revenue projections for the next few years are 19.626 billion yuan in 2025, 22.329 billion yuan in 2026, and 25.331 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 14x in 2025 to 10x in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [15].

证券研究报告 同程旅行 (780 HK) 港股通 1Q25 业绩：仍处在利润率上行期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 同程公布 1Q25 业绩：收入 44 亿元，yoy+13.2%，基本符合 VA 一致预期 的 43 亿元（简称预期），调整后净利润 7.9 亿元，超预期 8%，主要来自于 精细化运营补贴下，产品毛利率超预期。公司持续深挖用户价值，1Q 平均 月付费用户 yoy+9.2%，并推进补贴优化和运营效率提升。4 月公司亦通过 收购万达酒店管理公司强化产业链协同，重点发展酒店管理业务作为第二增 长曲线。我们看好国内旅游的需求韧性，公司有望持续通过用户价值挖掘、 促进产业链整合获得长期收入增长和利润释放。维持"买入"评级 收入符合预期，旅游需求韧性下深挖用户价值 公司 1Q25 收入 44 亿元，yoy+13.2%，基本符合预期，拆分来看，核心 OTA 业务中，住宿/交通/其他业务相较预期分别-0.1%/+2.2%/+0.6%，各项业务 发展稳健且基本符合预期。度假业务因东南亚 ...