Core Insights - The sale of train tickets for the New Year period has officially started, with significant demand observed for popular routes from major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou [1] - The extended three-day holiday for New Year has led to a surge in ticket sales compared to last year's single-day holiday, resulting in rapid sell-outs for peak travel times [1] Group 1: Train Ticket Demand - Popular routes experiencing high demand include Beijing to Harbin, Shenzhen to Xiamen, and Guangzhou to Changsha, with tickets for peak times selling out quickly [1][3] - The top ten departure cities for the New Year holiday include Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Guangzhou, while the top ten destinations include Shanghai, Harbin, and Beijing [3] - Short-distance train tickets within key urban clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta are particularly sought after, with routes such as Chengdu to Chongqing and Guangzhou to Shenzhen being highly popular [3] Group 2: Long-Distance Travel Trends - The winter tourism themes of ice and snow activities are driving demand for long-distance train travel to regions like Northeast China and Yunnan, with Harbin's Ice and Snow World opening on December 17 expected to attract many visitors [3] - New high-speed rail lines recently opened are anticipated to stimulate travel demand during the New Year holiday, with increased interest in routes like Xiangyang to Jingmen [4] Group 3: Air Travel Trends - Air ticket bookings for the New Year holiday have surged, with demand more than doubling compared to last year, leading to a noticeable increase in average ticket prices [5] - The top ten popular flight routes include Guangzhou to Harbin and Beijing to Sanya, reflecting significant north-south travel patterns [5] - The launch of Hainan's free trade port is expected to enhance the appeal of travel to Hainan, with a 75% increase in flight bookings to Sanya noted [5] Group 4: International Travel - The "three days off and eight days on" holiday pattern is prompting interest in outbound travel, with popular short-haul international routes including Shanghai to Kuala Lumpur and Beijing to Ho Chi Minh City [6]

Group 1: Higher Education Sector - The higher education sector is expected to see a reversal of difficulties due to a combination of bottoming fundamentals and policy advancements, with a focus on improving educational quality and encouraging the expansion of high-quality private colleges [5][6] - The reintroduction of profit-oriented classification management in Hunan Province in 2025 may serve as a pilot for nationwide implementation, providing a stable policy environment for private colleges to expand and meet the growing demand for higher education [5][6] - Key indicators of educational quality, such as student-to-teacher ratios and per-student funding, have met standards after five years of increased investment, suggesting that the investment cycle is peaking and operational efficiency in higher education companies is likely to recover [5][6] - Companies to watch in this sector include Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, New Higher Education, China Kepei, Neusoft Ruixin, Xijiao International Holdings, and Zhonghui Group [5][6] Group 2: Vocational Education Sector - The demand for vocational training is surging, driven by an increasing number of university graduates and high school students entering the labor market, leading to a projected market size of 80 billion yuan in 2025 with a penetration rate of only 5% [6][7] - The youth unemployment rate, particularly among those aged 16 to 24, is higher than the urban average, indicating a growing need for vocational skills training [6][7] - Companies to focus on in the vocational education sector include China Oriental Education and Fenbi [6][7] Group 3: Education Industry Trends - The education industry has undergone significant changes due to the "double reduction" policy, resulting in a 96% reduction in capacity in the academic training sector, with a limited number of operational licenses being redistributed [7] - The shift towards competency-based training is gaining momentum, with institutions leveraging their operational qualifications to expand their market share through non-academic training services [7] - The industry is moving towards a "franchise" model, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth for compliant institutions [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, which is adapting its operational strategy to cater to the needs of high school graduates [9] - In the higher education sector, the potential reintroduction of profit-oriented options is expected to enhance the revenue-sharing certainty for private colleges, with companies like Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, and China Kepei being highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report also suggests monitoring Chinese education companies listed in the US, such as New Oriental, TAL Education, and others, which are showing strong enrollment data [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming travel demand in 2025, characterized by longer distances, higher frequency, and upgraded quality of travel experiences, particularly among non-first-tier cities [1][6][10]. Group 1: Travel Trends - In 2025, there was a strong growth in domestic travel demand, especially for trips over 1,200 kilometers, with popular routes showing an average frequency of over 4.6 trips per passenger [1][3]. - The busiest route was between Xi'an and Yulin, with an average frequency of 5.3 trips per passenger, indicating a significant trend in business travel and regular commuting [5][6]. - Non-first-tier cities accounted for nearly 90% of new users on the platform, reflecting a notable upgrade in travel consumption among these regions [6][11]. Group 2: Popular Destinations - In 2025, five destinations from Xinjiang ranked among the top ten for overnight visitor growth, with booking rates for hotels and homestays increasing by over 45%, and some destinations exceeding 60% [8][21]. - The "奔县游" (County Travel) trend saw counties like Changsha County and others gaining popularity, driven by social media promotion of local attractions and cuisine [14][15]. - The top ten scenic spots in terms of popularity included Jiuzhaigou and other mountainous areas, indicating a strong preference for nature-based tourism [22]. Group 3: International Travel - Southeast Asia remained the top choice for outbound travel, with Malaysia and Singapore leading the list of popular destinations, benefiting from visa-free policies [25][26]. - European destinations like Belgium and Spain showed significant growth in popularity among Chinese tourists, reflecting a diversification in travel preferences [26]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The trend of "反向旅游" (reverse tourism) continued to thrive, with younger consumers actively seeking out lesser-known destinations [15]. - The use of AI in travel planning has increased, with users expressing gratitude towards AI tools, indicating a shift towards viewing AI as a travel companion rather than just a tool [28][30].

2025年12月19日，同程旅行发布了《2025年度旅行榜》。基于平台超2.5亿年消费用户的旅行数据，同 程旅行发布了2025年大众旅行消费的热门出行线路榜、热门县级目的地榜、出境游热门目的地榜以及 AI互动热门城市榜等年度榜单。 2025年大众旅游需求旺盛，呈现出"走得更远，频次更高，品质升级"的趋势，尤其是非一线城市的旅行 消费升级趋势明显。同程旅行数据显示，2025年度，国内1200公里以上的出行需求增长强劲。部分热门 航线的客均出行频次超过4.6次，其中，西安与榆林之间的航线以客均5.3次的出行频次成为全年最繁忙 的支线航线。新疆、青海、西藏、四川等西部地区热门目的地的过夜游客增速、单次停留时长等指标表 现出色。2025年度，县域旅游继续升温，来自新疆、青海、内蒙古、云南等地的县级旅游目的地登上年 度"奔县游"榜单。出境游热门目的地主要集中于东南亚等"5小时飞行圈"和"免签朋友圈"，马来西亚、 新加坡等上榜2025年度前十大出境游热门目的地，比利时、西班牙、意大利等以较快的客流量增幅登上 热度飙升榜前十名。 2025国内长线出行榜北上广至川藏航线热度居首，西安往返榆林入选最繁忙支线航线 2025年度国 ...

去年元旦仅放一天，今年三天连休小长假大幅推高火车票和机票热度。同程旅行平台数据显示，截至目 前，元旦前后火车票和机票整体搜索热度相比去年同期涨303%。 值得一提的是，近几个月来开通运营的沈佳高铁沈阳至白河段、盘州至兴义高速铁路、襄阳至荆门高速 铁路等，将在元旦假期激发一波探亲及旅游需求，同程旅行数据显示，元旦前后襄阳至荆门、盘州至兴 义等火车票搜索热度有所提升。 核心城市群短途火车票抢手 综合元旦前后已售车票及用户提前预约购票的情况，同程旅行数据显示，元旦假期十大热门出发地包括 北京、上海、成都、广州、杭州、深圳、西安、石家庄、天津、南京；目的地榜单TOP10城市则分别包 括上海、哈尔滨、北京、沈阳、大理、昆明、成都、广州、贵阳、长沙。 同程旅行此前发布《2026元旦假期旅行趋势报告》显示，元旦旅行市场呈现长短线交织的格局，体现在 火车票预订上，短途旅行大多集中在京津冀、长三角、珠三角、成渝核心城市群内。同程旅行平台上， 车程在1小时-3小时之间的跨城火车票十分抢手，热度靠前的线路包括成都至重庆、广州至深圳、杭州 至上海、北京至石家庄等。 冰雪游和避寒游两大旅游主题驱动下，东北三省、云南省、广东省、福建省等 ...

1. 同程旅行第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月17日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入45.70~48.44亿元，同比增长7.9%~14.3%； | 亿元人民币 | | | | | | | 关注朝阳永续公众号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美营业收入 | - F F 同比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | 测区间 | | 45.70~48.44 | 7.9%~14.3% | 4.15~7.95 | 18.3%~126.7% | 7.24~7.58 | 9.6%~14.8% | | ( | | 47.41 | 11.9% | 6.12 | 74.5% 0 | 7.41 | 12.3% | | t | | 47.46 | 12.0% | 6.04 | 72.2% | 7.39 | 11.9% | | | 2025-12-13 | 47.44 | 12.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | | 关 | 2025-12-08 | 48.44 | 14.3% ...

长江证券发布研报称，OTA当前竞争格局趋稳，同程长期深耕OTA业务，纵深旅游产业链，用户基本 盘、供应链能力、服务效率筑牢龙头护城河，当前战略聚焦于提升运营效率。公司盈利能力在用户营销 策略优化、精细化补贴、出境游盈利提升下，进入上行通道，后续销售费用率及take rate仍有提升空 间，有望支撑公司利润率持续上行。 同程旅行(00780)尾盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.39%，报22.6港元，成交额1.61亿港元。 消息面上，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月全国CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅较上月明显扩大，居民消费 延续恢复态势。从结构看，服务价格同比上涨0.7%，高于消费品价格涨幅，服务消费修复特征进一步 显现。在此背景下，旅游相关价格表现相对占优，11月旅游价格同比上涨2.0%，1-11月累计同比小幅抬 升，反映出文旅出行需求对价格的支撑仍具韧性。 ...

消息面上，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月全国CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅较上月明显扩大，居民消费 延续恢复态势。从结构看，服务价格同比上涨0.7%，高于消费品价格涨幅，服务消费修复特征进一步 显现。在此背景下，旅游相关价格表现相对占优，11月旅游价格同比上涨2.0%，1-11月累计同比小幅抬 升，反映出文旅出行需求对价格的支撑仍具韧性。 长江证券发布研报称，OTA当前竞争格局趋稳，同程长期深耕OTA业务，纵深旅游产业链，用户基本 盘、供应链能力、服务效率筑牢龙头护城河，当前战略聚焦于提升运营效率。公司盈利能力在用户营销 策略优化、精细化补贴、出境游盈利提升下，进入上行通道，后续销售费用率及take rate仍有提升空 间，有望支撑公司利润率持续上行。 智通财经APP获悉，同程旅行(00780)尾盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.39%，报22.6港元，成交额1.61亿港 元。 ...

Industry Overview - The service consumption sector in China has significant growth potential, with the current GDP per capita exceeding $13,000, indicating a shift from goods to service consumption as the economy matures [4][7][24] - The proportion of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented service consumption in China is relatively low, particularly in cultural, leisure, and health sectors, suggesting substantial room for improvement [4][7][24] - Recent government policies at both central and local levels have been introduced to support service consumption, focusing on the needs of the elderly and Generation Z, which are expected to drive growth in health, tourism, and new consumption sectors [4][7][24] Tourism and Travel - The domestic tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with 4.998 billion trips expected in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [8][46] - The government has implemented various supportive policies to enhance tourism, including the issuance of travel vouchers and promotional activities to stimulate demand [8][58] - The tourism industry is undergoing consolidation, with companies optimizing resources and enhancing operational efficiency to drive high-quality development [8][58] Local Lifestyle - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, although there is significant market differentiation, with high-end dining facing challenges while mass dining remains robust [10][10] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing growth driven by delivery services, with leading brands expanding their store presence despite potential challenges from subsidy reductions [10][10] - Meituan is facing increased competition in the delivery market, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and service quality to enhance long-term value [10][10] Education and Employment - The education sector is gradually recovering, with leading institutions expected to gain market share due to their brand strength and resource capabilities [11][11] - The human resources sector is seeing structural demand recovery, with AI technology providing opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11][11] Summary of Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors that combine valuation safety margins with growth logic, particularly in health, tourism, and new consumption areas driven by demographic changes [4][7][24]

考虑到旺季机酒价格"水涨船高"，同程旅行也给雪友提供更具性价比的出行住宿选择。活动期间将推出多场"冰雪出行专场直播"，直播间内释放限量低价出 行航线、雪场权益加码等专属福利。住宿方面，合作的万达酒店等品牌提供"万悦会"金卡体验权益，艺龙会也将对旅客发放酒店大额立减优惠券，并在直播 中抽取部分房型免房券。 近年来，冰雪游彻底破圈，滑雪运动已不再是专业人士、小众滑雪爱好者的专属。如今雪场上驰骋飞扬的，还有大批年轻用户、家庭亲子甚至"新银发"一族 的身影。客群构成更丰富之外，冰雪游目的地也日趋多元化，今年以来新疆地区滑雪热度相比以往更加高涨，机酒、滑雪门票等产品预订热度较去年提升近 40%。 以此次活动落地的阿勒泰将军山滑雪场为例，自11月份下旬开板以来，同程旅行平台上，将军山滑雪场预订热度环比提升约56%，全国各大户外滑雪场中， 将军山滑雪场进入TOP10榜单，在新疆一众户外滑雪场里更是排进前3位。 当板刃滑过雪道，漫天银色细雪飞溅而起，滑雪运动的酷炫自由感在这一刻具象化。快乐背后，是雪友们吃过的不少"苦头"：雪具装备又大又沉难携带，天 寒地冻一早爬起排队、旺季机酒价格不够美丽...... 基于对用户需求痛点的洞 ...