2025年1月，广州市地方金融管理局正式批复，同意广州旅金科技集团有限公司（以下简称"广州旅 金"）将所持萤火虫小贷全部股权划转至艺龙网，并同步变更章程条款。这意味着，同程旅行终于实现 了对萤火虫小贷的完全掌控，而这背后，是其历时多年的执着尝试。 时间回到2022年12月，同程旅行发布公告称，通过旗下实体与广州旅金订立出资协议，以4.5亿元获得 广州旅金13.85%股权。广州旅金正是萤火虫小贷的母公司，也是同程数科的运营主体，其最为市场熟 悉的是同程金融。彼时同程旅行虽然间接拥有一定的持股比例，但并未能完全掌控萤火虫小贷。 到了2024年2月，同程旅行进一步发布公告称，拟以11.5亿元收购广州旅金55.14%股权。若交易完成， 同程旅行将持有广州旅金68.99%股权，成为广州旅金的控股母公司，后者也将并入同程旅行的财务报 表中。萤火虫小贷也将成为同程旅行真正掌控的小贷机构。 对于这笔收购，同程旅行对外称，"通过收购该公司，可以引入金融科技，提升用户支付体验，更好地 满足用户需求，另外还可以通过提供契合旅游产业生态链的金融科技产品、数位化科技解决方案等，加 深与旅游行业产业链的合作。" 流量的尽头，往往藏着金融 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a 9-day holiday, leading to a significant surge in outbound travel demand, with booking peaks observed on travel platforms [1] - The trend of combining domestic celebrations with international vacations is becoming more pronounced, as users extend their travel dates to accommodate both [1] - Southeast Asia remains the top choice for Chinese tourists celebrating the Spring Festival abroad, with major destinations including Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bali [1][2] Group 1: Outbound Travel Trends - The booking volume for outbound travel products during the Spring Festival has surpassed that of 2025, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand [1] - Short-haul outbound travel products (5-7 days) remain popular, but there is a notable increase in long-haul travel bookings, with 9-12 day trips accounting for approximately 25% of users [1] - Non-first-tier cities, particularly in central and western China, are showing heightened enthusiasm for outbound travel, with cities like Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan making up about 40% of the top 15 source cities [2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - Due to high demand for outbound travel, hotel prices in popular destinations are rising significantly, with some locations like Kuala Lumpur seeing price increases of around 60% compared to regular rates [2] - Turkey has emerged as a popular new visa-free destination, experiencing a 320% year-on-year increase in travel interest during the Spring Festival [2] - Long-haul destinations such as Spain, Italy, New Zealand, Australia, and Egypt have seen a notable increase in travel interest, with year-on-year growth rates ranging from 63% to 155% [2]

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来源：朝阳永续 1. 同程旅行第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年01月12日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入45.70~48.44亿元，同比增长7.9%~14.3%； 国盛证券认为：同程旅行作为下沉市场OTA龙头，通过强强联合和优势互补，实现了快速发展。公司由 同程网络和艺龙合并而成，得到腾讯和携程的深度赋能，共享微信、QQ支付界面及携程酒店库存。业 绩方面，2025年前三季度收入、归母净利、经调利润均实现同比增长，收入构成多元化。费率稳中有 降，经调利润率提升。 同程旅行聚焦下沉市场，在线旅游渗透率提升空间大，消费潜力充沛，通过多渠道流量拓展和客群消费 需求挖掘，推动用户价值提升，MPU值和客均收入贡献持续增长。公司积极布局产业链延展，收购万 达酒管、定增入主大连圣亚，有望贡献增量。预计2025-27年收入、归母净利、经调净利润均实现较快 增长。 预测经调整净利润7.24~7.58亿元，同比增长9.6%~14.8%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 机构间称 | 发布日期 | 营业收入 关于同比 | | 净利润 | 同比 | 经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) experienced a significant increase of over 5% in stock price, attributed to the seasonal rise in domestic travel demand as students enter winter vacation and the reduction in flight and hotel prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the latest report, Tongcheng Travel's stock rose by 5.36%, reaching HKD 25.18, with a trading volume of HKD 316 million [1] - The company is recognized as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, poised to benefit from the consumption upgrade of its core customer base [1] - Growth drivers for Tongcheng include the release of demand in lower-tier markets and refined operational strategies, leading to an increase in both customer volume and per capita spending [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The domestic market is experiencing a peak in off-peak travel, driven by the convergence of student vacations and discounted travel options [1] - Recent quarterly metrics show a continuous increase in MPU (Monthly Active Users) and average revenue per user, with Q3 2025 showing growth rates of +3% and +12% respectively, indicating a trend of simultaneous volume and price increase [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Tongcheng is actively expanding its presence on the app platform and exploring multiple traffic channels to enhance user value [1] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including Wanda Hotel Management and a significant stake in Dalian Shengya (600593), which are expected to contribute to future growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 5% as students enter winter vacation, leading to a peak in off-peak travel due to lower prices for flights and hotels [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tongcheng Travel's report indicates a surge in domestic travel driven by the winter vacation period for students, coupled with reduced prices for flights and hotels [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, Tongcheng is a leading player in the lower-tier market for online travel agencies (OTAs) and is expected to benefit from the consumption upgrade of its core customer base [1] - The growth drivers for Tongcheng are primarily the release of demand in lower-tier markets and the company's refined operations, reflected in both the increase in customer volume and per capita spending [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Recent quarterly metrics show a continuous increase in the Monthly Active Users (MPU) and average revenue per user, with Q3 2025 showing growth of 3% and 12% respectively, indicating a trend of simultaneous growth in volume and price [1] - The company is actively expanding its presence through various channels, including the APP platform, and is focused on deeply exploring consumer demand to enhance user value [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Tongcheng is strategically extending its industry chain, having acquired Wanda Hotel Management and increased its stake in Dalian Shengya since 2025, which is expected to contribute to future growth [1]

Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK) - **Industry**: Online Travel Services in China Key Points and Arguments 1. Financial Performance and Guidance - **4Q25 GMV Growth**: Accelerated to high-single digit % year-over-year, compared to mid-single digit % in 3Q25, primarily driven by the hospitality segment [1] - **Hotel ADR Increase**: Low-to-mid single digit % increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR) on the platform, attributed to a slowdown in hotel supply [1] - **Ticketing Business Performance**: Tracking low-to-mid single digit % year-over-year growth, aligning with broader industry trends due to high online penetration rates of 80-90% [1] - **4Q25 Revenue Guidance**: Expected revenue growth of 10-15%, with 15-20% from Online Travel Agency (OTA) services and a stable EBIT margin of 28.4% [1] 2. Strategic Focus for 2026 - **Leisure Travel Demand**: Management is optimistic about resilient demand supported by favorable policies, such as more school holidays [2] - **User Base Monetization**: Targeting existing 252 million user base with promotions and subsidies; users are willing to spend more on upgraded services [2] - **Outbound Travel Business**: Currently represents ~5% of group revenue but has reached breakeven profitability; plans to prioritize air ticket bookings before expanding into hospitality [2] - **Mobile App Development**: Mobile apps account for ~10% of Monthly Active Users (MAU), up from 5% in 2023, reducing reliance on Weixin platform from ~80% to 75% [2] 3. Competitive Landscape - **Competition Analysis**: Competition remains benign with smaller operators focusing on niche markets; it will take time for them to build supply chains and customer service teams [3] 4. Margin Improvement Potential - **EBIT Margin Improvement**: Potential for further improvement driven by increased GMV contribution from mobile app users, improved profitability from hotel management and outbound travel, and operational efficiency through AI adoption [7] 5. Market Sentiment and Valuation - **Share Price Performance**: The share price has been range-bound due to concerns over domestic competition and profit margin comparisons [8] - **Valuation Metrics**: Current trading at 13x FY26E P/E, representing a 24% discount to 17x for TCOM, in line with historical averages [8] 6. Price Target and Risks - **Price Target**: 12-month target price set at Rmb28.8, based on an 85% weighting to fundamental value and a 15% weighting to M&A value [9] - **Downside Risks**: Increased competition, potential decline in transportation take rates, reliance on Tencent/WeChat, and weaker macroeconomic conditions [10] 7. Investment Thesis - **Investment Recommendation**: Rated as a Buy due to leverage on resilient domestic travel, upside from hospitality segment, and ongoing business initiatives that could drive earnings growth [11] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: HK$52.6 billion / $6.7 billion [13] - **Revenue Forecasts**: Expected revenue growth from Rmb17,340.7 million in FY24 to Rmb24,372.1 million in FY27 [13] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: Projected to increase from 6.8% in FY25 to 10.5% in FY27 [13]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The U.S. job market showed good performance in December, with non-farm employment slightly below expectations but an unemployment rate better than expected, indicating overall stability [4] - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, while PPI has also shown signs of recovery, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices for 2026 [4][16] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by various macroeconomic indicators, with a focus on liquidity, economic performance, and valuation metrics [8][9] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - The domestic new energy vehicle market continues to thrive, with projected sales for 2026 expected to reach 1,515 million units in China, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [17] - The demand for batteries and materials is expected to improve, with a significant increase in global battery demand anticipated [17][19] - Investment recommendations include focusing on key players in the battery sector such as CATL and other midstream material companies [19] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power demand is steadily increasing, with expectations for offshore wind projects to accelerate as planning progresses [20] - The profitability of domestic wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve, driven by price increases and export opportunities [20][21] - Investment suggestions include major turbine manufacturers and component suppliers, highlighting the potential for growth in the offshore wind sector [20] Group 4: Real Estate and REITs - The real estate market remains cautious, with land transaction volumes declining but at a slower rate, indicating a potential stabilization [12] - C-REITs have shown positive performance in the secondary market, with specific sectors like municipal water and data centers performing well [27] - Investment strategies focus on identifying quality projects with growth potential in high-demand urban areas [27] Group 5: Chemical Industry - Haohua Technology is positioned as a leading platform in new materials, benefiting from high demand in specialty chemicals and refrigerants [28][29] - The company has seen significant profit growth driven by rising prices in fluorinated chemicals, with expectations for continued upward momentum [29] - Investment recommendations emphasize the potential for growth in commercial aerospace and high-end electronic materials [29][32]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of pent-up demand and the enhancement of user value, which drives growth [3][11]. - The online travel market is characterized by strong certainty, with a stable competitive landscape allowing major players to release profits comfortably [2][11]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by the release of demand in the lower-tier market and refined operations [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongcheng Travel, was formed by the merger of Tongcheng Network and Elong in 2018, leveraging strengths in transportation ticketing and hotel bookings [1][14]. - It has over 250 million annual paying users, primarily in the lower-tier market, and has seen a significant recovery in performance post-pandemic [1][15]. Market Analysis - The domestic tourism market has rebounded, with tourist numbers and revenue recovering to 109% and 111% of 2019 levels, respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [2][38]. - The OTA market is dominated by a few key players, with Ctrip holding over 50% market share and Tongcheng around 15%, suggesting a stable competitive environment [2][11]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 145.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with net profit rising by 41% to 22.9 billion RMB [1][24]. - The adjusted profit margin improved from 16.2% in Q1-Q3 2024 to 18.0% in the same period of 2025, reflecting operational efficiency [1][24]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on the lower-tier market, where there is significant potential for growth and increased online penetration in travel services [3][11]. - It is expanding its app and multi-channel traffic strategies, leading to a rise in average revenue per user and overall user engagement [3][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 193.0 billion RMB, 220.6 billion RMB, and 251.2 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 28.5 billion RMB, 33.4 billion RMB, and 39.0 billion RMB [3][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant opportunity for cost-effective travel in China during the winter vacation period, driven by lower flight and hotel prices, particularly appealing to students and families [1][2] - According to Tongcheng Travel, domestic flight booking costs are expected to be 40% cheaper compared to the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with reduced fuel surcharges further lowering costs for consumers [1] - Popular domestic travel destinations include Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Harbin, with hotel booking interest in these areas showing over 20% year-on-year growth for certain cities [2] Group 2 - The search interest for family-oriented accommodations and attractions has surged, with top searched destinations including Shanghai Disneyland and Harbin Ice and Snow World, indicating a strong demand for family-friendly travel experiences [2] - Hotel prices in popular tourist areas like Harbin and Sanya are projected to be over 50% cheaper compared to peak travel times during the Spring Festival, making it an attractive option for travelers [1]