Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The core OTA platform's revenue growth has improved sequentially, with a focus on enhancing marketing efficiency and exploring incremental business opportunities [3][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.377 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, with core OTA revenue at 3.792 billion RMB, up 18.39% year-on-year [7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 788 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.13%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.341 billion RMB, 19.794 billion RMB, 22.456 billion RMB, and 25.647 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 49.12%, 14.15%, 13.45%, and 14.21% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 1.974 billion RMB, 2.709 billion RMB, 3.294 billion RMB, and 3.891 billion RMB, with growth rates of 26.66%, 18.88%, 16.17%, and 14.42% respectively [6][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 4.050 billion RMB, 4.667 billion RMB, 5.202 billion RMB, and 5.749 billion RMB, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 23.4%, 23.6%, 23.2%, and 22.4% [6][9]. Business Performance - The core OTA business's revenue growth has accelerated sequentially, with Q1 2025 showing a significant improvement compared to Q4 2024 [7]. - The company has focused on improving profit margins through refined operations, achieving a gross margin of 68.8%, a sales expense ratio of 33.2%, and a management expense ratio of 7.0% [7]. - The operating profit for the core OTA segment was 1.1 billion RMB, up 51.89% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [7].

（原标题：同程旅行：乒超联赛拉动文旅消费，雄安周边多景区预订热度翻倍） 2025年春夏之交，两项体坛赛事在国内大众旅游市场激起层层涟漪。一边是"全民参与"的江苏省城市足 球联赛(简称"苏超")，凭借"比赛第一，友谊第十四"等热梗火遍全网；另一边是职业化程度更高的2025 赛季中国乒乓球俱乐部超级联赛(以下简称"乒超联赛")，以"国球流量"拉动京津冀观赛旅游热潮。 两大赛事看似路径不同，却殊途同归——通过"体育+文旅"的深度融合，激活城市经济活力，重塑地域 文化认同，为提振大众旅游消费动能提供了新样本。 以球为媒 赛事经济从比赛场馆延伸到城市毛细血管 从苏超到乒超，从大球到小球，以球类竞技运动为媒介，江苏、河北两地将赛事经济玩出了新花样。以 比赛场馆为轴心，周边半径3公里范围成为赛事经济的核心获益区，酒店、餐饮、休闲娱乐，以及从事 赛事周边经营的个体工商户，成为赛事经济的核心受益者；赛事举办城市的知名景区景点、博物馆，以 及串联城市毛细血管的出租车、网约车等业态，也同样是这场"体旅融合"盛宴的受益者。 6月9日至11日，2025乒超联赛第一阶段比赛在河北雄安新区雄安体育中心体育馆举行。由于本次赛事云 集了孙颖莎 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 3, 2025 08:00 AM GMT M Update Tongcheng Travel Holdings | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK) From To Price Target HK$26.00 HK$28.00 Bull Case HK$34.00 HK$36.00 Base Case HK$26.00 HK$28.00 Bear Case HK$17.00 HK$18.00 Risk Reward for Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK) has been updated Reason for change We raised our PT by 8% to HK$28 after incorporating our new FX assumption of Rmb7.15 per US$ (from 7.5), in line with our la ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，计及最新外汇预测后，将同程旅行(21.5,-0.45,-2.05%)（00780）目标价上调 8%，由26港元升至28港元，而盈利预测及其他重要预测则维持不变，续予"增持"评级。大摩预计，今年中国 旅游需求将保持强劲，消费将由购物转向旅游或体验，而同程将在低线城市、交叉销售（cross-selling）上 升、新业务和国际扩张的带动下，继续扩大市场份额 摩根士丹利 同程旅行(00780):升目标价至28港元,评级"增持" ...

从城市维度来看，包括深圳、北京、上海、广州在内的四大一线城市的酒店预订热度领跑国内市场。端 午假期，本地及周边的高星酒店、精品民宿和度假别墅需求占比上升明显。以苏州为例，在端午假期各 类住宿产品中，本地及周边居民的入住间夜量同比增长31%，"家门口住酒店"的趋势明显。 同程旅行数据显示，端午假期，平台上的出境联程中转机票预订热度同比增长近20%，相比出境机票的 整体预订热度增速高出5个百分点。 同程研究院分析，选择端午假期通过空空中转出游的用户，有三大特征，一是出行周期长，二是价格敏 感度相对较高，三是主要集中在非一线城市。选择空空中转的旅客大多通过拼假方式，抓住国际机票价 格大幅上涨前的窗口期。 与端午假期国内和国际机票均价不增反降相比，国内和国际机票均价将在节后一周内开始呈现动态上涨 的态势。 同程旅行分析，特别是从6月20日开始，随着全国大部分地区将进入"中考时间"，国内机票均价或将反 超端午假期机票价格高点。在"全国高考"周期内，国际机票均价将迎来节后第一波价格上涨小高峰。预 计国际机票均价将在6月21日前后突破3000元大关，并将在接下来的一周内直冲均价4000元的趋势线。 而后随着暑期旅游旺季的到 ...

6月2日，同程旅行数据显示，今年端午假期，平台上的亲子跟团产品预订热度同比增长80%，同程旅行 旗下艺龙酒店科技平台上的亲子房预订热度同比提升超过200%。早在端午假期前，部分热门IP亲子房 就已达到满房告罄的状态。整体来看，端午假期，国内四星级及以上的酒店热度远超三星级以下酒店。 (证券时报) ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Elong (00780.HK) is experiencing a period of consolidation after recent upward momentum, with a closing price of HKD 21.9, reflecting a slight increase of 0.23% [1] Price Movement and Technical Analysis - The stock has shown a significant volatility with a five-day amplitude of 15.1%, indicating high market interest [1] - Current price is above all major moving averages, with the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages at HKD 21.01, HKD 21.03, and HKD 20.3 respectively, suggesting a bullish trend [1] - The stock is forming a preliminary bottom and strengthening pattern, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the positive [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level is at HKD 20.9, with a further support at HKD 19.9, which may act as potential rebound points [3] - The first key resistance level is at HKD 22.8, and a successful breakout could lead to a target of HKD 23.9 [3] - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 52%, reflecting a generally positive market outlook [3] Technical Indicators - The RSI is at 61, indicating a strong position but not yet overbought, suggesting room for further price increases [3] - Overall technical indicators are summarized as "strong buy," with a signal strength of 16, indicating multiple indicators are aligned in a bullish signal [3] - The MACD and Ichimoku indicators are also signaling buy recommendations, reinforcing confidence in the current upward trend [3] Market Sentiment and Trading Volume - The stock's trading volume reached HKD 173 million, indicating active market participation [4] - Despite some divergence in oscillators, such as a short-term sell signal from the stochastic oscillator, other indicators like CCI and momentum oscillators are turning bullish, showing stable buying sentiment [3] - The VR ratio indicates a "oversold, potential bottoming" signal, suggesting that after high volatility adjustments, the stock is showing signs of bottoming out [3] Summary of Overall Trend - The technical trend for Tongcheng Elong is transitioning from high volatility to the early stages of an upward trend, with a solid bullish structure established [7] - If the stock can effectively break through the resistance at HKD 22.8, it will confirm the bottom structure and initiate a new upward wave [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in MACD and trading volume as key indicators for confirming the continuation of the upward trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of fuel surcharge standards for domestic flights in China is expected to positively impact short-distance travel and the upcoming summer tourism market [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from June 5, 2025, domestic flights with a distance of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from fuel surcharges, while flights over 800 kilometers will incur a charge of 10 yuan per passenger per segment [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The new fuel surcharge policy is anticipated to influence domestic ticket prices for short-distance flights and provide a boost for post-Duanwu Festival travel [1] - The adjustment is seen as a positive signal for the upcoming summer tourism market [1]

Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a revenue of Rmb4.38 billion in 1Q25, representing a 13% year-over-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of Rmb788 million, up 41% year-over-year, exceeding expectations due to a higher-than-expected core OTA operating profit margin [1] - The company raised its 2025 EPS forecast from Rmb1.38 to Rmb1.41, while maintaining forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at Rmb1.57 and Rmb1.74 respectively, and increased the target price from HK$24.8 to HK$26.5, indicating a 21% upside potential [1] Domestic Operations - In 1Q25, core OTA revenue increased by 18% year-over-year, with accommodation reservation revenue up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue rising 15% [2] - Monthly paying users (MPUs) grew by 9% year-over-year to 46.5 million, and annual paying users (APUs) increased by 8% year-over-year to 250 million, both reaching historical highs [2] - The domestic hotel take rate is expected to rise by 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 9.5-10% in Q2, driven by reduced subsidies [2] - Hotel average daily rate (ADR) growth is anticipated to turn positive in 2Q25, with an upward trend in the proportion of three-star and above hotels on the platform [2] Outbound Travel Business - The outbound travel business is projected to turn from loss to profit in 2025, with outbound flight tickets contributing approximately 5% to transportation revenue in 1Q25 [2] - By the end of the year, outbound flight tickets and hotels are expected to contribute more than 7% to flight and hotel revenue, with the loss from outbound flight tickets decreasing quarter-over-quarter [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a Buy rating, reflecting optimism about the growth certainty of the online travel industry and the stability of its competitive landscape [3] - Improvements in marketing efficiency and the expansion of outbound travel are expected to enhance margins, while the hotel management business is poised to provide additional growth drivers [3]

Summary of Tongcheng Travel 1Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel - **Industry**: Internet Services, specifically in travel and accommodation Key Points Earnings Performance - **1Q25 Revenue**: Tongcheng reported revenue of RMB 4,377 million, which was in line with expectations and represented a year-over-year growth of 13.2% [1] - **Margins**: The company achieved a gross margin of 68.8%, an increase of 295 basis points compared to the previous quarter [9] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the company was RMB 669 million, with a net margin of 15.3% [9] Industry Trends - **Pricing Trends**: Management noted improving pricing trends in domestic hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) and airfare, expecting this momentum to continue due to resilient travel demand and a low base effect [1] - **Market Position**: Tongcheng continues to outperform the industry, with domestic hotel ADR remaining flat year-over-year in 1Q and expected to turn positive from 2Q onwards [1] Business Updates - **Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)**: Although GMV was not disclosed, it is estimated to have negative year-over-year growth primarily due to weakness in domestic airfare, while domestic hotel GMV is expected to show double-digit room night growth [2] - **Outbound Travel**: Outbound air ticketing and hotel room nights grew robustly by 40-50% year-over-year in 1Q, contributing approximately 5% to transportation and accommodation revenues [2] - **Hotel Management**: Tongcheng currently manages 2,500 hotels, with over 1,400 in the pipeline. The addition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to enhance brand portfolio and profitability [2] Financial Estimates - **Revenue Estimates**: Total revenue estimates for 2Q and 2025 remain unchanged, with expected growth rates of 9.9% and 12.1% respectively [3] - **Core OTA Revenue**: Anticipated to grow at 13.4% for 2Q and 16.4% for FY25E, while tourism revenue is under pressure with a high single-digit decline due to safety concerns in Southeast Asia [3] Valuation - **Price Target**: The price target is maintained at HK$24.5, implying a price-to-earnings ratio of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026 [4] - **Current Trading Metrics**: As of May 23, 2025, the stock was trading at HK$20.50, with a market capitalization of HK$46.5 billion (approximately US$5.94 billion) [6] Additional Insights - **Net Margin Expansion**: Expected steady net margin expansion of approximately 1 percentage point per year driven by scale and cost optimization [2] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is trading at a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8x, indicating an undemanding valuation [1] Conclusion Tongcheng Travel is positioned well within the travel industry, showing resilience in revenue growth and profitability despite some challenges in the tourism segment. The company is focusing on enhancing monetization strategies and expanding its hotel management portfolio, which could provide further growth opportunities in the coming quarters.