2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

金十数据5月26日讯，中银国际发表研究报告指，同程旅行(00780.HK)首季经调整净利润按年升41%， 胜于该行预期。报告指，这反映出虽然集团面对去年基数较高和酒店房价疲弱等不利因素，但公司策略 仍然奏效，同时，集团专注低线城市用户亦使其表现短期内优于同行。公司继续强调进一步变现，并提 升其销售和市场推广工作的投资回报率，预期这将支持其利润率。该行表示，即使未计入同程拟收购万 达酒店管理的交易，仍对其今年实现净利润按年增长20%更有信心，重申其买入评级，目标价由23.3港 元轻微上升至23.6港元。 中银国际微升同程旅行目标价至23.6港元 首季业绩胜预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profit margins, with a focus on international expansion performance [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform generated revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing reached 2 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from increased demand and enhanced value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, with international hotel night volume growing over 50% [6]. - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 590 million yuan, down 11.8% year-over-year, due to safety issues in Southeast Asia [6]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year [6]. - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with 68% of new paying users from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.7 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan [8]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD per share [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.377 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and an adjusted net profit of 788 million yuan, up 41.1% year-on-year [1]. - The core OTA revenue reached 3.792 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a robust year-on-year growth of 18.4% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 68.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by revenue growth and scale effects [3]. - The company announced an agreement to acquire 100% of the shares of Wanda Hotel Management (Hong Kong) on April 17, 2025, which is expected to enhance its high-end hotel management capabilities [3]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - The company's revenue from accommodation bookings in Q1 2025 was 1.19 billion yuan, up 23.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in take rate and cross-selling rates [2]. - Traffic ticket revenue reached 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, supported by the expansion of international ticket sales [2]. - Other business revenue was 603 million yuan, reflecting a 20.0% year-on-year growth, driven by hotel management and advertising services [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 3.393 billion yuan, 4.060 billion yuan, and 4.647 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].

港股同程旅行涨超10%，第一季度同程旅行实现收入约43.77亿元，同比增长13.2%；经调整净利润约 7.88亿元，同比增长41.1%。 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 江楚雅 在大众旅游需求释放、AI技术革命及全球化布局的三重驱动下，同程旅行（00780.HK）业绩稳定增 长。 5月23日，同程旅行发布2025年一季度业绩报告。财报显示，同程旅行一季度实现营收43.77亿元，同比 增长13.2%；经调整EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）达11.59亿元，同比增长41.3%。 长江商报记者注意到，同程旅行"交通+住宿+度假"三大业务协同发展齐增长。随着旅行成为更多普通 人的日常，同程旅行的年服务人次达到19.6亿，年付费用户（APU）更是创下历史新高，达2.47亿。 三大业务协同发展 同程旅行"交通+住宿+度假"三大业务协同发展， 2025年一季度，公司的核心业务均实现两位数增长， 用户规模与消费频次双双创下新高。 同程旅行通过"产品创新+本地化运营"，推动国际业务高速增长，成为业绩增长的重要引擎。 财报显示，同程旅行一季度实现营收43.77亿元，同比增长13.2%；经调整EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前 利润）达11.59亿元，同比增长41.3%。 而公司的国际机票销量同比增40%，空铁联运覆盖全球，推出国际机票一站式包车服务，提供中文司 机、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tongcheng Travel with a 12-month price target of HK$24.50, implying a potential upside of 19.5% from the current price of HK$20.50 [7][29]. Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's 1Q25 earnings were in line with revenue expectations, with a margin beat. The management highlighted improving pricing trends in domestic hotel average daily rates (ADR) and airfare, expecting this momentum to continue due to resilient travel demand and a low base effect [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing monetization through improved value-added services (VAS) sales, effective cross-selling between transportation and hotel products, and optimized subsidies, which could sustain high take rates of approximately 4% for transportation and 9.5% for accommodation in 2Q [2][3]. - Core OTA revenue is expected to slow down temporarily in 2Q with a year-over-year growth estimate of 13.4%, but is projected to return to high-teens growth in the second half of the year as the base effect normalizes [2][4]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Total revenue estimates for 2Q and 2025 remain unchanged at 9.9% and 12.1% year-over-year growth, respectively. The core OTA business is expected to maintain healthy growth at 13.4% for 2Q and 16.4% for FY25E [4][11]. - The adjusted net margin is projected to remain stable at 15.9% for 2Q and 17.2% for 2025E [4]. Business Updates - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) is estimated to have experienced negative year-over-year growth in 1Q due to weakness in domestic airfare, while domestic hotel GMV is expected to show healthy double-digit room night growth [3]. - Outbound air ticketing and hotel room nights saw robust growth of 40-50% year-over-year in 1Q, with management targeting to improve this mix to high-single digits by 4Q [3]. - The company currently manages 2,500 hotels, with over 1,400 in the pipeline, and expects the addition of Wanda Hotel Management to enhance its brand portfolio and profitability [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a DCF-based price target of HK$24.50, which implies a P/E ratio of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026 [5][12]. - The company is trading at a P/E of 13.3x for 2025, which is considered undemanding with a PEG ratio of 0.8x [2][5]. Financial Highlights - Revenue projections for Tongcheng Travel show significant growth from Rmb6,585 million in 2022 to an estimated Rmb19,447 million in 2025, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb646 million in 2022 to Rmb3,364 million in 2025 [6]. - The adjusted diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb0.29 in 2022 to Rmb1.46 in 2025, with a dividend per share expected to grow from Rmb0.00 in 2022 to Rmb0.20 in 2025 [6][8].

营业收入符合指引，全年业绩释放确定性强 消费品/商业 5 月 23 日，同程旅行发布 25Q1 业绩，报告期内公司实现营收 43.8 亿元，同 比增长 13.2%；实现经调整 EBITDA/经调整净利润为 11.6/7.9 亿元，同比增长 41.3%/41.1%，收入符合指引预期，经营业绩略超市场预期。2025Q1 国内出行 需求仍保持较高的景气度，得益于佣金率提升及休闲旅游需求持续释放，公司 Q1 收入稳步增长，国际业务延续高增长趋势。随着 OTA 渗透率持续提升+格 局优化下佣金率改善延续，公司收入端有望延续高增趋势，叠加国际业务减亏& 规模效益带来的 OPM 改善，全年业绩具备较强确定性，维持"强烈推荐"评 级。 ❑ 风险提示：经济消费下滑风险；出行政策变化风险；疫情反复风险。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 5 月 25 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 11904 | 173 ...