华福证券 包 研 旅游综合 2024 年 11 月 14 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 下沉市场 OTA 龙头，深耕产业强化自有供应链 投资要点： 同程旅行是由同程和艺龙合并整合形成的一站式在线旅行平台，规模 位居国内前三，深耕下沉市场，强化自有供应链建设提升竞争优势。 在线旅行渗透率持续提升，开拓下沉市场和年轻用户增量： 旅游预订线上化进程持续加速推动在线旅游市场增长高于旅游大 盘，根据嘉世咨询数据，预计 2024 年我国在线旅游市场规模将达 2.2 万亿元/恢复至 2019 年同期的 120%；在线旅行用户线上渗透率 45.2%， 低于网约车（45.7%）、外卖（50.3%）、网络音乐（66.3%）等，对比来 看在线旅行线上渗透率仍有提升空间；由于上游资源整合&下游流量门 槛高，OTA 一超多强格局稳定，2021 年携程+去哪儿市场份额约 5 成、 领先 其他 OTA 平台 ，美 团、同 程旅 行、飞 猪市 场份额 分别 为 20.6%/14.8%/7.3%。 同程旅行深耕下沉市场错位竞争，大股东赋能流量&库存的基础上强 化自有流量渠道&供应链建设： 同程旅行重视下沉市场用户开拓，截止 2024Q2 ...

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited 同程旅行控股有限公司 (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) Stock Code 股份代號：0780 MALIGAYANG BENVENUTO PAGDATING TERVETULOA VELKOMMEN WELKOM 欢 迎 ÜDVÖZLÖM BIENVENIDO 환영 ようこそ WELCOME ... BIENVENUE WILLKOMMEN BEM-VINDOS 2024 中期報告 INTERIM REPORT CONTENTS 目錄 2 CORPORATE INFORMATION 公司資料 6 KEY HIGHLIGHTS 摘要重點 11 BUSINESS REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 業務回顧與展望 16 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 管理層討論及分析 33 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND OTHER INFORMATION 企業管治及其他資料 84 R ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/旅游服务业 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 03 日收盘价（港元 ] ） | 15.02 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 12.38-22.55 | | 总股本 / 流通股本（百万股） | 2325/2325 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（亿港元） | 349/349 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 OTA 行业龙头，多元场景加深下沉优势》 | | | 2024.04.10 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|--------| | 恒生指数对比 | 1M | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.112 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was 1.734 billion yuan, up 12.7%, and adjusted net profit was 1.215 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% [3][6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 64.8%, a decrease of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted profit margin was 15.0%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][6]. - The company's core OTA business segments, including transportation ticketing and accommodation booking, showed significant performance improvements, with transportation ticketing revenue growing by 16.6% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.245 billion yuan, a 48.1% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit also growing by 10.9% [3][6]. - The total GMV for the first half of 2024 was 128.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with a notable rise in user purchase frequency [6][8]. - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits of 2.697 billion yuan, 3.021 billion yuan, and 5.859 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024 [6][9]. Business Segment Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated 1.743 billion yuan in revenue in Q2 2024, driven by increased ticket volume and enhanced value-added services [6][8]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.191 billion yuan in Q2 2024, benefiting from a significant expansion of hotel supply and optimized product structure [6][8]. - Other business segments saw a remarkable revenue increase of 87.3% year-on-year, totaling 592 million yuan in Q2 2024 [6][8]. User Metrics - As of June 30, 2024, the company had 228 million annual paying users, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, with a 29.9% growth in cumulative paying customers [6][8]. - The proportion of registered users from non-first-tier cities was approximately 87% as of Q2 2024 [6][8]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The company is valued at a reasonable range of 19.05 to 22.86 HKD per share based on a PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024, considering its position as a leading OTA with strong growth momentum [6][9]. - Comparatively, the PE ratios for similar companies such as Ctrip and Meituan are 14.4 and 17.6 respectively, indicating a competitive market landscape [9].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 13.12 | 港元 23.00↓ | +75.3% | 同程旅行 (780 HK) 核心 OTA 收入增~20%，收入虽有下调，但下半年利润率将改善 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 42 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 48%，与我 | | 们/彭博市场预期基本一致。其中，核心 OTA 业务收入增 23%（交通/住宿 | | +13%/17%），度假业务收入 7.2 亿元。调整后净利润 6.6 亿元，同比增 | | 11%，高于我们/彭博市场预期 5%/4%，对应净利率 15%，较去年同期的 | | 21%有所下降，因度假业务利润率较低及出境业务投入拖累。调整后营销 | | 费用同比增 35%，主要由于营销活动增加，但占收比环比稳定在 35%。 | | - ...

公司研究 两大股东赋能+自建供应链体系，助力公司疫后强劲复苏 ——同程旅行（0780.HK）投资价值分析报告 要点 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 指标 | | | | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6,585 | 11,896 | 17,336 | 20,355 | 23,369 | | 营业收入增长率 | -12.64% | 80.67% | 45.72% | 17.42% | 14.81% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | | | | | | 归母净利润增长率 | | NA NA | 22.35% | 28.64% | 18.80% | | EPS（元） | | | | | | | ROE（归属母公司)（摊薄） | -0.93% | 8.78% | 9.45% | 10.54% | 10.84% | | P/E | | NA 18 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 资料来源： ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's online travel industry, focusing on lower-tier markets and leveraging innovative marketing strategies to capture post-pandemic recovery opportunities [2] - The online travel market is recovering strongly, with lower-tier markets being a significant growth driver [2] - The company benefits from its strategic partnerships with Tencent and Ctrip, which provide traffic and hotel inventory, respectively [2] - The company is actively expanding its traffic sources and building its own supply chain, including through acquisitions and international expansion [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 17.34 billion, RMB 20.36 billion, and RMB 23.37 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 2.45 billion, and RMB 2.91 billion, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 15x, 12x, and 10x, respectively [2] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a 14.8% market share in China's online travel market, ranking third after Ctrip and Meituan [2] - The company's traffic is primarily sourced from Tencent's ecosystem, with over 80% of monthly active users coming from WeChat Mini Programs [2] - The company shares hotel inventory with Ctrip, which accounts for 60%-70% of its hotel supply [2] - The company is expanding its supply chain through acquisitions and technology solutions for small and medium-sized hotels in lower-tier cities [2] Industry Trends - China's online travel market is highly concentrated, with the top three players (Ctrip, Meituan, and the company) holding a combined market share of 71.7% [2] - The online travel market is expected to grow from RMB 1.8 trillion in 2019 to RMB 2.6 trillion by 2025, driven by increasing online penetration and lower-tier market growth [2] - Post-pandemic, there is a shift towards short-distance travel and tourism in lower-tier cities, which benefits the company's focus on these markets [2] Traffic and User Growth - The company's traffic from its own app increased from 4.0% to 4.7% between August 2023 and March 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its traffic sources by investing in platforms like Douyin and strengthening its independent app operations [2] - The company is also tapping into offline channels, such as music festivals and local travel opportunities, to capture new users [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its global supply chain layout, particularly in North America, through app development and offline store openings [2] - The company has launched a "Destination Global Plan" to expand its international presence, with partnerships in countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Hungary [2] - The company's international hotel bookings have fully recovered to 2019 levels, with a 330% year-on-year increase in international hotel room nights in 2023 [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at HKD 16.71, representing a potential upside from the current price of HKD 13.58 [2] - The valuation is based on the company's strong position in China's lower-tier travel market, its self-built traffic channels, and its global supply chain layout [2] Key Catalysts for Stock Price - Short-term catalysts include the growth in travel demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, particularly in lower-tier cities [2] - Long-term catalysts include the company's international expansion and its ability to capture the growth in China's outbound tourism market [2]

同程旅行（0780.HK）2024 年二季报点评 主业彰显较强韧性，运营能力提升支撑增长 2024 年 08 月 22 日 ➢ 公司 Q2 业绩整体符合预期。24Q2 实现收入 42.5 亿元，同比增长 48.1%， 创下单季度收入规模历史新高；实现经调整净利润为 6.6 亿元，同比增长 10.9%； 经调整净利润率为 15.5%，同比-5.2pct；实现毛利润为 27.4 亿元，同比增长 26.9%；毛利率为 64.6%，同比-10.8pct；归母净利润为 43.4 亿元，同比增长 21.9%。经调和归母利润的差异主要受到 24Q2 汇兑亏损净额大幅低于 23Q2 所 致。 ➢ 分业务来看，核心 OTA 板块维持了较强的增长韧性。24Q2 交通业务实现 收入 17.4 亿元，同比增长 16.6%。其中，机票票量同比增长近 20%，表现优于 行业。住宿业务收入达 11.9 亿元，同比增长 12.8%。其中，酒店间夜量同比稳 步增长 10%，说明公司交叉销售的策略成效逐渐显现。国际业务维持高增，机票 /酒店分别同比增长 160%/140%，反映了国际业务的进展。其他业务实现收入 5.9 亿元，同比增长 87.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.2 billion RMB for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49%. The core OTA business generated 3.2 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 430 million RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit reached 660 million RMB, up 11% year-on-year [2][3]. - Strong demand for travel and international business expansion contributed to the core OTA business's revenue growth. The accommodation booking service generated 1.2 billion RMB, a 13% increase year-on-year, driven by increased accommodation demand and enhanced cross-selling strategies. The transportation booking service achieved 1.7 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for quarterly revenue [2][3]. - The user base and purchase frequency continue to grow, with annual paid users reaching 230 million and cumulative service users at 1.86 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.8% and 29.9%, respectively. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is approximately 64 RMB, a 30% increase compared to 2019 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.6 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 4.2 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 16X, 12X, and 9X for the same years [4][3]. - Key financial metrics for 2024 include projected revenue of 17.1 billion RMB, a 44% growth rate, and an adjusted net profit of 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting a 21% increase [4][8]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 65%, a decrease of 11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the integration of new offline vacation services and differences in the core OTA business model [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18, representing a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 13.12 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's 2Q24 revenue reached RMB 4.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%, aligning with expectations. Adjusted net profit was RMB 660 million, exceeding market expectations by 4%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of vacation business [2]. - The core OTA segment showed steady growth, with a transaction volume of RMB 62.3 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU. The average monthly paying users slightly increased by 0.7% to 42.5 million. Core OTA revenue was RMB 3.53 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 24.3% [2]. - International business remains a strong growth driver, with international hotel night volume increasing by 140% and international ticket volume by 160% year-on-year in 2Q24. The company expects continued strong growth in international business, which currently accounts for less than 5% of total revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue forecast for FY24E is adjusted to RMB 17.3 billion, with FY25E projected at RMB 20.1 billion. The adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2.56 billion, increasing to RMB 3.02 billion in FY25E [3][6]. - The financial model indicates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with the adjusted net profit margin expected to rise from 14.8% in FY24E to 16.2% in FY25E [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 38.15 billion in FY24E to RMB 47.79 billion in FY25E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [7].