Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adopted a more cautious outlook on China's thermal power utilities, downgrading the rating of China Resources Power from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and reducing the target price from HKD 21.5 to HKD 17. The firm maintains a "Underweight" rating on Huaneng Power International, lowering the H-shares target price from HKD 4.85 to HKD 4.5 [1] Group 1 - The removal of the electricity price floor may lead to a further decline in the on-grid electricity price for thermal power starting in 2027, which could compress the profit margins of the companies covered by the firm [1] - The government has mentioned plans to improve the capacity pricing mechanism, but there is significant uncertainty regarding the strength, implementation timing, and whether it will be sufficient to offset the decline in base electricity prices [1] - The profitability outlook for thermal power plants has become unfavorable, with expected downward risks to market earnings forecasts and dividend predictions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in power stocks, with Huaneng International (00902) down 5.26% to HKD 5.4, China Resources Power (00836) down 3.48% to HKD 17.18, and Huadian International (01071) down 2.91% to HKD 4.01 [1][1][1] Group 2 - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which includes optimizing the electricity market mechanism [1] - According to CITIC Securities, the notice clarifies that after the improvement of the coal power capacity pricing mechanism, local areas can adjust the lower limit of medium- and long-term market trading prices for coal power based on supply and demand and the variable costs of all participating units [1] - The notice encourages flexible pricing mechanisms between supply and demand parties, which may lead to a further decline in the price center of electricity in some provinces [1]

Core Viewpoint - Power stocks are experiencing a decline, with major companies like Huaneng International, China Resources Power, and Huadian International seeing significant drops in their stock prices due to regulatory changes in the electricity pricing mechanism [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huaneng International (600011)(00902) fell by 5.26%, trading at 5.4 HKD [1] - China Resources Power (00836) decreased by 3.48%, trading at 17.18 HKD [1] - Huadian International (600027)(01071) dropped by 2.91%, trading at 4.01 HKD [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation [1] - The notice specifies that the coal power capacity pricing mechanism will be refined, allowing local adjustments to the long-term market trading price floor based on supply and demand and operational costs [1] - The notice encourages flexible pricing mechanisms between supply and demand parties, which may lead to a further decrease in electricity price levels in some provinces [1]

Core Viewpoint - The power sector is experiencing a decline, with major companies like Huaneng International, China Resources Power, and Huadian International seeing significant drops in their stock prices following the announcement of a new pricing mechanism for power generation capacity by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huaneng International (00902) fell by 5.26%, trading at 5.4 HKD [1] - China Resources Power (00836) decreased by 3.48%, trading at 17.18 HKD [1] - Huadian International (01071) dropped by 2.91%, trading at 4.01 HKD [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation [1] - The notice includes provisions for optimizing the pricing mechanisms for coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage [1] Group 3: Market Implications - According to CITIC Securities, the notice allows localities to adjust the lower limit of long-term market trading prices for coal power based on supply and demand and the variable costs of all participating units [1] - The notice encourages flexible pricing mechanisms between supply and demand parties, which may lead to a further decline in the price center for coal power in some provinces [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, particularly for coal-fired power operators, with a recommendation to focus on quality transformation operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, China Resources Power, and Funiu Co., Ltd. [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of the capacity compensation mechanism in addressing the long-standing issue of fixed cost recovery in the coal-fired power sector. The implementation of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is expected to resolve the dual pricing system between long-term contracts and spot market prices, leading to a more balanced electricity market. [2][5][7] - The report anticipates that by 2026, the national capacity supply-demand ratio will reach 84%-96%, with capacity prices ranging from 276 to 316 RMB/year·kW. This is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on long-term contract prices significantly. [7] - The report emphasizes that the introduction of the capacity compensation mechanism will decouple the fixed cost recovery from long-term contract pricing, thus allowing coal-fired power to return to being a public utility. [7] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism, which aims to unify various types of regulatory power sources under a new reform initiative. [18] Importance of Capacity Compensation Mechanism - The capacity price is designed to compensate for fixed costs associated with power plants, which include capital costs, fixed operating and maintenance costs, and taxes. This mechanism is crucial for ensuring that power companies can recover their fixed costs effectively. [21][22] International Examples and Domestic Innovations - The report references the PJM capacity market mechanism in the U.S. and the innovative capacity compensation mechanism trialed in Gansu Province, which aims to achieve near-full recovery of fixed costs. [6] Breaking the Profitability Dilemma - The report concludes that if the reliable capacity compensation mechanism is implemented nationwide, it will significantly reduce the profitability challenges faced by coal-fired power plants under the current dual pricing system. [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the power generation sector, including Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and China Power Investment, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, aimed at addressing the challenges of the new energy transition and ensuring the development of regulating power sources [1]. - The notification highlights the need for a balanced approach to "new energy consumption, power security, and regulating power source profitability," which is crucial for the construction of a new power system [1]. - The report emphasizes the differentiated optimization of capacity pricing for four types of regulating power sources, including independent new energy storage and pumped storage, to ensure fair competition and adequate compensation for capacity [1]. Summary by Sections Capacity Price Mechanism - The notification introduces a differentiated capacity pricing mechanism for various regulating power sources, allowing local authorities to set prices based on factors such as coal power capacity standards and peak contribution [1]. - The policy aims to ensure that the capacity value of regulating power sources is adequately recognized and compensated, addressing previous issues of insufficient cost coverage [1]. Unified Compensation Mechanism - A key breakthrough in the notification is the establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism that standardizes compensation across different types of power generation units, promoting rational investment and resource allocation [1]. - This mechanism aims to avoid inefficient resource allocation by linking compensation to the actual contribution of each unit to the power system [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their integrated operations and stable profit potential, including Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng [1]. - It also highlights the potential for hydropower companies to benefit from increased output and stable dividends, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in electricity sales for 2025, with a total sales volume of 226.79 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.00% [1] Group 1: Electricity Sales Performance - The total electricity sales volume for the company's subsidiaries reached 2267.90 billion kWh in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.00% [1] - In the second half of 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 1248.10 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.77% [1] - Breakdown of electricity sales by type for 2025: - Thermal power: 1577.93 billion kWh, up 1.3% year-on-year - Wind power: 537.02 billion kWh, up 16.4% year-on-year - Solar power: 132.02 billion kWh, up 55.5% year-on-year - Hydropower: 20.93 billion kWh, up 35.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Revenue and Pricing Outlook - The company anticipates a steady growth in revenue for the second half of 2025, despite facing downward pressure on electricity prices across provinces [1] - Expected price declines for 2025: - Thermal power: down 6.1% - Wind power: down 11.0% - Solar power: down 6.1% [1] - Overall, the revenue growth rate is expected to be lower than the sales volume growth due to the pressure on electricity prices [1] Group 3: Cost Management and Performance - Despite a recent rebound in coal prices, the overall costs remain lower year-on-year, with the Qinhuangdao port coal price averaging 716.77 RMB/ton, down 118.97 RMB/ton [2] - The optimization of fuel costs is expected to support the company's thermal power operations, although the improvement trend may slow down due to a smaller decline in coal prices in the second half of the year [2] - The company projects steady revenue growth in the second half of 2025, with a narrowing of the annual performance decline compared to the first half [2] Group 4: Expansion and Dividend Policy - The company added a total of 4.839 million kW of new wind and solar capacity in the first half of 2025, ensuring growth potential [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company has 8.679 million kW of wind and 6.515 million kW of solar capacity under construction [2] - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, with an interim dividend of 0.356 HKD per share in 2025 [2] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Based on the latest operational data, the company’s projected earnings for 2025-2027 are 13.253 billion, 11.194 billion, and 11.980 billion HKD, with corresponding EPS of 2.56, 2.16, and 2.31 HKD [3] - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 7.04, 8.33, and 7.78 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [3]

Group 1 - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 108.70, noting a low single-digit decline in Q4 revenue for the Anta brand, while FILA and other brands show resilience with a growth of 35%-40% [1] - CMB International also maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage with a target price of HKD 11.87, indicating that 2025 will be a year of pressure release, with stable market share in packaged water and potential improvements in sales incentives [1] Group 2 - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Hutchison China MediTech, highlighting the significant superiority of Savolitinib combination therapy over chemotherapy in MET amplified NSCLC, with global sales peak potential exceeding USD 1.8 billion [2] - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power with a target price of HKD 21.05, projecting a 6.7% increase in core profit for 2025, with a 9.8% decrease in thermal coal fuel costs partially offsetting coal price rebounds [3] Group 3 - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geek+, setting a target price of HKD 53.00, with a significant upward revision of order growth from 30% to 40% for 2026, and successful penetration into North American key accounts [4] - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan Buyi, noting excellent performance in FY1H26 and a fundraising of HKD 270 million to enhance brand development, with expected high single-digit to double-digit growth in revenue and profit [5] Group 4 - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Xaircraft with a target price of HKD 87.00, emphasizing its leading position in general aviation and private aviation, with current valuations not reflecting its brand potential and scarcity [6] - CITIC Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep International, indicating flat revenue for the main brand in Q4 2025, with bright performance in running categories and successful adjustments in e-commerce [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's cumulative electricity sales volume for 2025 is expected to reach 226.79 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.00%. In the second half of 2025, the sales volume is projected to be 124.81 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 9.77%. The growth rate of electricity sales in the second half of 2025 shows significant improvement compared to the first half, indicating a stable revenue growth outlook despite downward pressure on electricity prices [2][10] - The company is expected to face some pressure on its overall performance in 2025 due to weak coal production in the first half and a high base effect from the previous year. However, the decline in performance is anticipated to narrow [2][10] - The company has seen a steady increase in electricity sales across various sources: thermal power sales reached 157.79 billion kWh (up 1.3%), wind power sales reached 53.70 billion kWh (up 16.4%), solar power sales reached 13.20 billion kWh (up 55.5%), and hydropower sales reached 2.09 billion kWh (up 35.9%) [6][10] - The company has been expanding its renewable energy capacity, with a total of 4.839 million kW of new wind and solar installations added in the first half of 2025. As of June 30, 2025, the company has 8.679 million kW of wind and 6.515 million kW of solar capacity under construction, ensuring growth potential [10] Summary by Sections Sales Volume and Revenue Outlook - The company expects stable growth in electricity sales volume for 2025, with a total of 226.79 billion kWh, and a significant improvement in the growth rate in the second half of the year [2][10] - Revenue growth is expected to be steady, although it may lag behind the growth in electricity sales due to downward pressure on electricity prices [2][10] Cost Management and Performance - Fuel costs are expected to maintain a year-on-year decline, with the average price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port at 716.77 RMB/ton, down 118.97 RMB/ton year-on-year. This cost optimization is expected to support the company's thermal power operations [10] - Despite some challenges, the overall performance decline for 2025 is expected to narrow compared to the first half of the year [2][10] Growth and Dividend Policy - The company has a consistent dividend policy, with a mid-year dividend of 0.356 HKD per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [10] - The orderly expansion of renewable energy capacity is expected to provide growth opportunities for the company [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in overall power generation in 2025, primarily driven by wind and solar energy contributions, while traditional coal power generation shows a decline [8][9]. - The extreme cold weather in the U.S. has led to a significant spike in natural gas prices due to increased demand and supply constraints [18][22]. - The report suggests various investment opportunities across different segments of the energy sector, including coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, renewable energy, and gas companies [18][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In December 2025, total power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. Coal power generation decreased by 3.2%, while renewable sources like wind and solar saw significant growth [10][11]. - For the entire year of 2025, total power generation reached 9715.9 billion kWh, up 2.2% from the previous year, with coal power down by 1.0% and solar power up by 24.4% [15][19]. 2. Natural Gas - As of January 23, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price surged to $30.72/mmBtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 903.53%. European gas prices also rose significantly due to low inventory levels and increased demand [20][28]. - The report notes that the extreme cold weather has tightened supply and demand dynamics, leading to higher global gas prices, particularly in Europe and Northeast Asia [22][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations [18]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to favorable conditions for energy storage and reduced capital expenditures [19]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [18]. - Renewable energy operators such as Xinte Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new market rules enhance the stability of returns [18]. - Gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Liuhe are suggested for their potential recovery in profitability due to cost reductions and improved pricing mechanisms [43].