鉴于近期加密货币市场的疲软、全球交易所交易量持续下滑，大和认为投资者对HashKey和OSL的信心 在短期内可能仍然低迷。然而，大和对2026年第一季加密货币行业的前景持乐观态度，这主要受惠于香 港有望批准首张稳定币牌照、美联储政策转向中美国市场流动性的改善等。 大和发布研报称，予OSL集团(00836)目标价18.8港元以及"买入"评级。OSL是大和首选的香港加密货币 公司。大和表示,12月17日HashKey(03887)挂牌，HashKey透过IPO集资16亿港元，其上市进度快过大行 预期，HashKey的IPO定价约为基于2026年预期营收的13倍市销率(P/S)，与OSL目前的交易估值基本一 致。 ...

鉴于近期加密货币市场的疲软、全球交易所交易量持续下滑，大和认为投资者对HashKey和OSL的信心 在短期内可能仍然低迷。然而，大和对2026年第一季加密货币行业的前景持乐观态度，这主要受惠于香 港有望批准首张稳定币牌照、美联储政策转向中美国市场流动性的改善等。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，予OSL集团(00836)目标价18.8港元以及"买入"评级。OSL是大和 首选的香港加密货币公司。大和表示,12月17日HashKey(03887)挂牌，HashKey透过IPO集资16亿港元， 其上市进度快过大行预期，HashKey的IPO定价约为基于2026年预期营收的13倍市销率(P/S)，与OSL目 前的交易估值基本一致。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The future narrative for thermal power is expected to shift towards enhanced profitability stability and increased dividends due to rising capacity prices and deeper assessments by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [2][60] - In the short term, integrated coal power companies are likely to have a comparative advantage as coal prices rise, with a consensus forming around an increase in the coal price baseline for next year [2][6] - Renewable energy companies, despite facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and subsidy delays, have shown considerable absolute returns, supported by improving policies for green energy development [6][8] Group 2: Thermal Power Analysis - Historical performance of thermal power shows a certain "counter-cyclical" nature, with earnings often moving inversely to coal prices, which are now market-driven [19][26] - The current policy framework limits the duration of profitability expectations for thermal power, leading to a "high first, low second" characteristic in the market for 2023 and 2024 [6][45] - The expected increase in capacity prices across provinces by 2026 will enhance the fixed cost recovery ability of coal power plants, significantly improving profitability stability [60][64] Group 3: Renewable Energy Insights - The renewable energy sector is currently facing multiple issues, including market price pressure and subsidy delays, but the gradual improvement in policy support is expected to create investment opportunities [6][8] - Companies with low valuations, high wind power ratios, and strong regional price certainty are still worth considering for investment despite the uncertain timing of policy impacts [2][6] Group 4: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Leading hydropower companies exhibit high earnings certainty and dividend ratios, making them attractive for long-term investment [7] - Nuclear power is anticipated to see significant capacity growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with stable long-term price expectations despite some market price fluctuations [8][60] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as leading hydropower firms like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9] - In the renewable sector, companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].

华润电力之母公司华润集团是香港与中国内地最具实力的多元化企业之一，迄今已有80多年历史。华润集团业务涵盖大消费、 综合能源、城市建设运营、大健康、产业金融、科技及新兴产业6大领域，下设25个业务单元，一家直属机构，实体企业近2,000 家。所属企业中有8家在港上市。华润以"引领商业进步，共创美好生活"为使命，通过不断创新生意模式，打造产品和服务品 牌，有效地促进了产业发展，为提高大众的生活品质作出了应有的贡献。目前，华润零售、啤酒、燃气、商业地产、制药和医 疗等经营规模在全国位居前列。电力、水泥业务的经营业绩、经营效率在行业中表现突出。华润置地是中国内地实力雄厚的综 合地产开发商之一。雪花、怡宝、华润万家、万象城、999、双鹤、东阿阿胶、江中等是享誉全国的知名品牌。在2025年《财 富》杂志公布的全球500强排名中，华润集团位列第67位。 华润电力之母公司华润集团是香港与中国内地最具实力的多元化企业之一，迄今已有80多年历史。华润集团业务涵盖大消费、 综合能源、城市建设运营、大健康、产业金融、科技及新兴产业6大领域，下设25个业务单元，一家直属机构，实体企业近2,000 家。所属企业中有8家在港上市。华润以" ...

花旗发表研报，将华润电力的评级从"买入"下调至"中性"，将2026年净利润预测下调8.3%，2027年净利 润预测下调7.9%，原因是润电与广东省签订合同后，花旗下调了燃煤电价预测(2026年按年下降3.5%， 此前为下降1.5%)，以及燃煤电厂单位燃料成本上调(2026年预测按年下降1%，此前为下降3%)。基于 DCF估值法，花旗将润电目标价从21.5港元降至19港元。对于2026年展望，花旗更看好中国电力设备供 应商而非发电营运商，因后者会因市场电价下跌而面临利润率下降的风险。 ...

花旗发布研报称，下调华润电力(00806)目标价11.6%，从21.5港元降至19港元，评级从"买入"降至"中 性"。花旗表示，下调对燃煤电价的预期，2026年现预测将降低3.5%，主要原因是在广东所签署的合 同。同时，燃煤电厂的单位燃料成本上升。因此将该公司2026年纯利预测下调8.3%，2027年纯利预测 下调7.9%。 该行将对该公司的评级降至"中性"而非"沽出"，是因为其2025年预期股息率为6.4%，虽然可以接受，但 仍低于其同行华能国际（600011）电力(00902)的8.5%，派息比率40%，也低于华能的50%对于2026年的 预测，该行更倾向于选择中国电力设备供应商而不是运营商，因为后者可能因中国没有电力短缺而面临 市场电价下降带来的利润率下降。 ...

该行将对该公司的评级降至"中性"而非"沽出"，是因为其2025年预期股息率为6.4%，虽然可以接受，但 仍低于其同行华能国际电力(00902)的8.5%，派息比率40%，也低于华能的50%对于2026年的预测，该行 更倾向于选择中国电力设备供应商而不是运营商，因为后者可能因中国没有电力短缺而面临市场电价下 降带来的利润率下降。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，下调华润电力(00806)目标价11.6%，从21.5港元降至19港元，评 级从"买入"降至"中性"。花旗表示，下调对燃煤电价的预期，2026年现预测将降低3.5%，主要原因是在 广东所签署的合同。同时，燃煤电厂的单位燃料成本上升。因此将该公司2026年纯利预测下调8.3%， 2027年纯利预测下调7.9%。 ...

华润电力(00836)公布，2025年11月附属电厂售电量为18,866,666兆瓦时，同比增加了8.6%，其中，附属 风电场售电量达5,260,109兆瓦时，同比增加了29.5%;附属光伏电站售电量达1,020,094 兆瓦时，同比增 加了71.2%。 2025年首十一个月附属电厂累计售电量达到204,885,875兆瓦时，同比增加了7.1%，其中，附属风电场 累计售电量达到48,340,837兆瓦时，同比增加了15.8%;附属光伏电站累计售电量达到12,069,023兆瓦时， 同比增加了55.4%。 ...