Summary of Longyuan Power Conference Call Company Overview - Longyuan Power is a wind power business integration platform under the State Energy Group and is the largest wind power operator globally as of mid-2025, with a controlling stake of 59% held by the State Energy Group [6][12] - The group has a total installed capacity of 355 GW, with 122 GW in green energy, of which Longyuan Power accounts for 46% in wind and 19% in solar [6][12] Industry Dynamics - The domestic wind and solar installation has reached a turning point, with significant policy support leading to a recovery in cash flow for companies like Longyuan Power [2][3] - The implementation of Document No. 136 and mandatory green energy consumption policies have driven the price-to-book ratio (P/B) recovery to 0.76, although it remains at historical lows [2][12] Financial Performance - Longyuan Power's long-term return on equity (ROE) has been stable at 8%-9%, with only two years (2013 and 2022) showing declines due to external factors [7][8] - The company’s electricity price from desulfurization has decreased from 0.5 yuan per kWh in 2017 to 0.19 yuan per kWh in mid-2025, reflecting market pressures [2][9] - The company’s P/B ratio has dropped from a peak of 2.34 in September 2021 to a low of 0.52 in February 2024, with a slight rebound to around 0.76 [4][5] Cash Flow and Valuation - Longyuan Power is expected to face a free cash flow deficit of 12.1 billion yuan in 2024, but with a slowdown in conventional project development and accelerated national subsidy repayments, free cash flow may turn positive in 2025 [4][17] - The company’s accounts receivable stood at 49.5 billion yuan, representing 56% of net assets, indicating a high dependency on subsidy recoveries [18] Future Growth and Asset Development - Future growth will be supported by the injection of approximately 4 GW of green energy units from the group, upgrades to older units, and over 5 GW of offshore wind power reserves [14][15] - The company aims to add 7.5 GW of new capacity in 2024 and 5 GW in 2025, focusing on high-quality resource areas [13][14] Market Conditions and Pricing - The market for green certificates has seen a significant decline in prices, but recent policy changes have led to a recovery, with trading volumes increasing substantially [19] - The competitive advantage of wind power over solar is highlighted by better alignment with load curves and higher market prices [15] Profit Forecast - Longyuan Power's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.43 billion yuan, 7.22 billion yuan, and 7.93 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 0.1%, 12%, and 10% [20] Conclusion - Longyuan Power is positioned to benefit from industry recovery and policy support, with a strong asset base and growth potential despite current market pressures and historical low valuations [2][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility industry [1] Core Insights - The first mechanism electricity price bidding results for renewable energy in Shandong have been released, indicating a significant market-oriented shift in policy [3][17] - Wind power mechanism electricity price is set at 319 CNY/MWh, which is a 20% premium over the 2024 average spot trading price, while solar power is at 225 CNY/MWh, a 33% premium [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of management and operational capabilities for renewable energy operators in a market-driven environment [4][30] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The Shandong province has become the first to implement a market-oriented mechanism for renewable energy pricing, with significant participation from over 3000 projects [18][21] - The mechanism electricity volume for wind power is 59.67 billion kWh, while for solar power it is only 12.48 billion kWh, reflecting a stronger policy support for wind energy [3][23] - The report suggests that the future of solar power installations in Shandong may see reduced investment enthusiasm due to current pricing pressures and non-technical cost reductions [4][29] Grid Sector - New pricing mechanisms for nearby consumption of green electricity have been established, which will protect grid interests and promote cost reductions for users [6][35] - The system operation costs will be charged based on the electricity delivered, allowing for potential savings in electricity costs for high-load enterprises [7][37] - The report highlights that the new pricing structure will benefit wind power and energy storage development, making them key components in the green electricity landscape [8][42] Renewable Energy Assets - The report discusses the acceleration of Real World Assets (RWA) in the distributed solar sector, with significant investments from companies like JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly [10][44] - The RWA framework is expected to enhance liquidity and value reassessment of quality distributed solar assets, benefiting original equity holders [11][47] - The collaboration between LinYuan Energy and Ant Group aims to digitize energy assets, further supporting the RWA initiative [12][48] Green Methanol - A major project for green methanol production has been announced by Goldwind, with a total investment of approximately 18.92 billion CNY, aiming to produce 600,000 tons of green methanol annually [13][49] - The report anticipates a surge in demand for green methanol as multiple projects are set to commence production in the coming years [13][49] - Key suppliers and equipment manufacturers in the green methanol sector are expected to see performance improvements as the market expands [13][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - The bidding results for wind and solar energy in Shandong for 2025 show a clear differentiation, with wind energy having a selected volume of 5.967 billion kWh and a clearing price of 0.319 CNY/kWh, while solar energy has a selected volume of 1.248 billion kWh and a clearing price of 0.225 CNY/kWh [2][11] - The new pricing mechanism for grid connection capacity is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy, promoting a win-win situation for the grid, power generation companies, and users [2][11] Summary by Sections Bidding Results - The wind energy projects in Shandong are limited in number but have a large allocated bidding volume, with a rational bidding price close to the upper limit, indicating stable profit expectations [2][11] - The solar energy projects face intense competition, leading to a clearing price that is under pressure, reflecting a more challenging market environment [2][11] Pricing Mechanism - Recent regulatory changes propose a shift to a single capacity-based pricing model for grid connection, which is expected to streamline the pricing mechanism for nearby consumption projects [2][11] - The new pricing structure aims to eliminate additional fees for energy delivered to the grid, thus enhancing the economic viability of renewable energy projects [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in the electricity market are revitalizing power operators, with a focus on high-quality development in the renewable energy sector [2][11] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, among others, due to their strong positions in the transitioning energy landscape [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending various companies within these industries for investment [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive results of the electricity pricing mechanism in Shandong, indicating that wind power is favored over solar power, with wind power pricing at 0.319 CNY/kWh and solar at 0.225 CNY/kWh [9][10]. - A new pricing mechanism for nearby consumption of renewable energy has been established, clarifying economic responsibilities and allowing renewable projects to pay for supply reliability [12][13]. - Global gas prices are showing mixed trends, with European and Asian prices rising while U.S. prices are declining, reflecting varying supply and demand dynamics [15][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Shandong Pricing Mechanism and New Renewable Energy Policies - Shandong's first competitive pricing results show wind power projects with a total capacity of 3.5911 GW and a mechanism electricity price of 0.319 CNY/kWh, while solar projects have a capacity of 1.265 GW and a price of 0.225 CNY/kWh [9][11]. - The new pricing mechanism for nearby consumption aims to enhance the utilization of renewable energy and reduce the pressure on the power system [12][13]. 2. Gas: Global Price Variations - As of September 12, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices are at $2.94/mmBtu, down 3.61% week-on-week, while European TTF prices are at €32.00/MWh, up 1.27% [15][16]. - The report notes that U.S. gas production remains high despite a slight decline, while European prices are influenced by supply constraints and increased heating demand due to cooler temperatures [15][20]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The gas sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the public utilities, power, and environmental sectors underperformed [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include the implementation of market-oriented pricing reforms for renewable energy in Jiangxi province, effective from October 2025 [40]. - The report also discusses various company announcements, including operational updates and financial instruments [43]. 5. Key Company Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the public utility sector, highlighting buy and hold recommendations for several firms based on their earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand balance and favorable competition dynamics, particularly recommending companies like Sheneng Co. and Huadian International for thermal power, and Yangtze Power for hydropower [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent auction results for renewable energy pricing in Shandong, indicating a total of 94.67 billion kWh of selected projects, with wind power accounting for 59.67 billion kWh and solar power for 12.48 billion kWh [6][32] - It notes that the winning bid price for wind power was 0.319 yuan/kWh, which is an 8.9% discount from the auction ceiling, while solar power had a winning bid of 0.225 yuan/kWh, reflecting a 35.7% discount [6][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new market mechanisms being developed for renewable energy, including the support for a spot market for electricity [6][57] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.86% while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.16% during the week of September 8-12 [12] - The carbon neutrality sector rose by 2.25%, while the coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.11% [12] Industry News - The report discusses the new guidelines for the continuous operation of electricity spot markets, which aim to enhance market competition and system operation [57] - It also mentions the new action plan for large-scale construction of new energy storage, targeting an installed capacity of over 180 million kW by 2027, with direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [58] Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends focusing on leading companies in regions with tight supply-demand dynamics, such as Anhui Energy and Huadian International [62] - In hydropower, it suggests monitoring Yangtze Power due to stable electricity prices and regional supply-demand tightness [62] - For nuclear power, it highlights China National Nuclear Power as a key player due to expected increases in electricity generation and stable pricing [62] - In the renewable energy sector, it recommends Longyuan Power as a leading wind power operator [63] - The report also suggests focusing on urban comprehensive operation management service providers like Yuhua Tian [63]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International initiates coverage of Longyuan Power (001289)(00916) with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting short-term performance pressure due to fluctuations in green electricity prices, while maintaining optimism about the company's long-term growth potential driven by offshore wind and large-scale projects [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Longyuan Power is positioned as the wind power business integration platform of the State Energy Group, with a total installed capacity of 43.2 GW as of the end of H1 2025, comprising 31.4 GW of wind power and 11.8 GW of solar power [2] - The company has historically maintained a stable return on equity (ROE) in the range of 8-9%, with controllable declines in electricity prices over recent years [2] - The operating profit per kilowatt-hour for wind power has decreased from 0.24 yuan/kWh in 2017 to 0.20 yuan/kWh in 2024, and is expected to drop to 0.19 yuan/kWh in H1 2025 due to unfavorable wind conditions and price pressures [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Longyuan Power holds a leading position in resource allocation with 31.4 GW of controlled wind power capacity, including approximately 2.2 GW from Jiangsu offshore wind and 0.4 GW from Fujian offshore wind, primarily located in resource-rich areas and load centers [3] - The company has a significant pipeline of offshore wind projects exceeding 5 GW, distributed across Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hainan, which is expected to support profit growth as these projects come online [3] Group 3: Pricing and Policy Environment - The average electricity price for wind power has remained relatively stable, decreasing from 0.49 yuan/kWh in 2017 to 0.47 yuan/kWh in 2024, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics following the issuance of policy document 136 [4] - The acceleration of national subsidy recovery for green electricity companies has been observed since July, with the average trading price of green certificates rising by 35.42% month-on-month to 4.61 yuan per certificate in July [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International initiates coverage on Longyuan Power (00916) with an "Overweight" rating, highlighting short-term performance pressure due to fluctuations in green electricity prices and volumes, while maintaining optimism about the company's long-term growth potential as a leading wind power enterprise benefiting from policy catalysts and market competition advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 6.431 billion yuan, 7.220 billion yuan, and 7.934 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +0.1%, +12.3%, and +9.9% respectively [1]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the closing price on September 9, 2025, are projected to be 9.4x, 8.4x, and 7.6x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Resource Management - Longyuan Power, as a leading operator backed by the State Energy Group, has a total installed capacity of 43.2 GW as of the end of H1 2025, comprising 31.4 GW of wind power and 11.8 GW of solar power, having completed the divestment of thermal power assets [2]. - The company has a significant advantage in resource allocation, with its wind power installations located in high-quality resource areas and load centers, achieving utilization hours that exceed the national average by approximately 60-160 hours [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Policy Environment - The company has maintained a relatively stable decline in electricity prices, with wind power revenue per kilowatt-hour decreasing from 0.49 yuan in 2017 to 0.47 yuan in 2024 [4]. - Following the issuance of Document No. 136, the company’s green electricity projects are expected to benefit from higher comprehensive pricing and excess returns due to improved output curves and better alignment with load demands [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH premium rates for various stocks, indicating significant disparities in market valuations between H-shares and A-shares [1][2][3] Group 1: Top AH Premium Rates - Northeast Electric (00042) leads with an AH premium rate of 800.00%, followed by Hongye Futures (03678) at 227.63% and Andeli Juice (02218) at 219.28% [1][2] - Other notable mentions include Fudan Zhangjiang (01349) with a premium of 215.70% and Beijing Mechanical & Electrical (00187) at 214.38% [2] Group 2: Bottom AH Premium Rates - CATL (03750) has the lowest AH premium rate at -10.67%, followed by Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -1.72% and Zijin Mining (02899) at 4.00% [1][2] - Additional companies with low premium rates include China Merchants Bank (03968) at 5.29% and Midea Group (00300) at 6.40% [2] Group 3: Top Deviation Values - Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) shows the highest deviation value at 25.76%, followed by Ganfeng Lithium (01772) at 19.31% and Kaisheng New Energy (01108) at 18.78% [1][2] - Other companies with significant deviation values include Dongjiang Environmental (00895) at 16.43% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) at 16.34% [2] Group 4: Bottom Deviation Values - Fosun Pharma (02196) has the lowest deviation value at -21.97%, followed by Longyuan Power (00916) at -20.23% and Longpan Technology (02465) at -17.81% [1][3] - Additional companies with low deviation values include BYD Company (01211) at -15.75% and Jiangxi Copper (00358) at -15.61% [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.60 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 7.87 [1][6][12]. Core Insights - The acceleration of national subsidies for renewable energy in August has exceeded expectations, signaling positive cash flow improvements for the company. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of outstanding subsidies, which amount to over RMB 30 billion [3][9]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of at least 30% of net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2025-2027, with an initial interim dividend of HKD 0.1 per share planned for 2025, reflecting a strong focus on shareholder returns [4][10]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 5,273,319 MWh in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.56%, with wind and solar power generation growing by 22.38% and 74.41%, respectively. The target for new installed capacity in 2025 remains at 5 GW, which is expected to support stable performance growth [5][11]. Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 32,526 million, a 3.7% increase from the previous year, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach RMB 6,622 million, reflecting a growth of 3.8% [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is estimated at RMB 0.79, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.1 based on the current share price [7][15]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.238 per share for FY2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.31% at the current price [7][15].

资料显示，龙源电力集团股份有限公司位于北京市西城区阜成门北大街6号(c幢)20层2006室,香港铜锣湾 希慎道33号利园1期19楼1917室，成立日期1993年1月27日，上市日期2022年1月24日，公司主营业务涉 及电力系统及电气设备的技术改造、技术服务和生产维修;与电力相关的新技术、新设备、新材料、新 工艺的研制、开发、生产、成果转让;电站污染物治理;风力发电、节能技术及其他新能源的技术开发、 项目投资管理;进出口业务;电气设备的租赁;与主营业务相关的咨询服务;承办展览会、展销会;机电产 品、化工原料及制品(危险化学品除外)、建筑材料、五金交电、日用百货、汽车配件、电力系统专用车 辆的销售;出租写字间。主营业务收入构成为：电力产品99.22%，其他收入0.78%。 截至6月30日，龙源电力股东户数4.10万，较上期增加1.18%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。2025 年1月-6月，龙源电力实现营业收入156.57亿元，同比减少17.09%；归母净利润33.75亿元，同比减少 11.82%。 分红方面，龙源电力A股上市后累计派现59.78亿元。近三年，累计派现47.46亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止 ...