Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) [1] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's FY2026H1 performance shows revenue growth driven by AI, with total revenue reaching $39.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at $850 million, up 40.5% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from strong performance across its three main business segments, with AI driving revenue and profit growth, enhancing overall competitiveness [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $56.864 billion - FY2025A: $69.077 billion - FY2026E: $76.417 billion - FY2027E: $83.943 billion - FY2028E: $90.407 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +21.48%, FY2026E +10.63%, FY2027E +9.85%, FY2028E +7.70% [1][9] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $1.011 billion - FY2025A: $1.384 billion - FY2026E: $1.868 billion - FY2027E: $2.089 billion - FY2028E: $2.332 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +37.01%, FY2026E +34.93%, FY2027E +11.84%, FY2028E +11.64% [1][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2024A: $0.08 - FY2025A: $0.11 - FY2026E: $0.15 - FY2027E: $0.17 - FY2028E: $0.19 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - FY2026E: 9.04 - FY2027E: 8.08 - FY2028E: 7.24 [1] Business Segment Performance - **IDG (Intelligent Devices Group)**: - Revenue of $28.57 billion in FY2026H1, up 14.6% year-on-year, with a strong operating profit margin of 7.2% [8] - **ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group)**: - Revenue of $8.38 billion in FY2026H1, up 29.6% year-on-year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure [8] - **SSG (Solutions and Services Group)**: - Revenue reached $4.81 billion in FY2026H1, up 18.9% year-on-year, with a high operating profit margin of 22% [8]

作者｜出海潜望 题图｜AI生成 中国企业的出海浪潮，在2025年展现出前所未有的厚度、速度和情感温度。站在新的十字路口，我们看到中国企业与品牌"出海2.0"时代已悄然开启。 从早期依靠价格、流量红利，到如今靠组织力、创新力和本地化运营取胜。虎嗅《出海标杆榜单》的设立，正是为了捕捉这场深层次变革的见证者：谁 在真正定义中企出海的新范式。 过去一年，出海最显著的变化就是企业出海战略的整体升级，越来越多的企业开始自建全球运营体系，实现从产品出海到品牌出海的结构性跃迁。 比如许多制造业和新锐消费品牌，在具体区域设立本地化团队、数据管理团队、甚至本地研发与生产能力，把创新、服务和营销下沉到社区和用户触 点。 不过，外部环境也逐渐复杂。 出海榜单评委们普遍认为，地缘政治等变量对企业出海影响日益深远。无论是欧美的贸易壁垒、东南亚的数据保护规定，还是中东的市场准入生态，都 要求企业具备更高的战略敏感和本地适应力。 中国产业发展研究院常务副院长刘大成告诉虎嗅："当合规成为门槛，中国企业必须具备跨国风险控制和应急能力，这已不是选择题，而是生存题。" 深圳电子商务服务中心部长洪培林也坦言："中国企业过去出海，像是走马观花；现在，必 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo reported 2QFY26 revenue of $20.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.7% [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit reached $512 million, up 25.2% year-on-year, surpassing the company's previous guidance midpoint of approximately 19% [1] - The company disclosed that AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [1] Group 1: PC and IDG Performance - IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) revenue grew by 11.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 60%, demonstrating resilience amid rising storage costs [2] - Lenovo's global PC market share increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 25.6%, marking a record high and leading the second-place competitor by 5.7 percentage points [2] - Driven by hybrid AI, PC revenue rose by 17% year-on-year, with AI PC penetration increasing by 16 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 33% of total PC shipments [2] Group 2: ISG and SSG Performance - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) revenue increased by 23.7% year-on-year, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3] - AI server business recorded high double-digit revenue growth, with strong order reserves [3] - Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 154% year-on-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3] - SSG (Solutions and Services Group) revenue grew by 18.3% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth for the 18th consecutive quarter, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects to leverage its scale and supply chain advantages to mitigate the impact of rising storage costs, with AI anticipated to drive stable revenue growth in IDG [2] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 14.0 (previously HKD 16.0), corresponding to a 14.6 times FY2026E PE, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.6% year-on-year, reaching $20.45 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.7% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin increased to 2.5%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 0.3% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from the IDG segment was $15.11 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7%, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - The ISG segment generated $4.09 billion in revenue, which was below Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, but still showed a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [1] - The SSG segment achieved a record revenue of $2.56 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.2%, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin was reported at 15.4%, slightly lower than Bloomberg's expectation by 0.06 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin for the IDG segment was 7.3%, in line with expectations, while the SSG segment reported an operating profit margin of 22.3%, exceeding expectations by 3.1 percentage points [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates adjusted net profit growth of 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, translating to $1.68 billion, $1.85 billion, and $2.10 billion respectively [1] - The stock price is projected to have a PE ratio of 9.2X, 8.4X, and 7.4X for FY25/26 to FY27/28 [1]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group's 2QFY26 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit reached $512 million, up 25.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 5.1% to $340 million [1] - The strong performance was driven by double-digit revenue growth across all three business groups and regions, with AI-related revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] Business Segment Performance - The IDG segment reported revenue growth of 11.8% to $15.107 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.3% [2] - Lenovo's PC shipment growth of 17.3% outpaced the global PC market's growth of 9.4%, increasing its market share to 25.5% [2] - The ISG segment saw revenue growth of 23.7% to $4.087 billion, with a reduced operating loss margin of -0.78%, indicating significant improvement [3] Market Position and Outlook - Lenovo holds a 31.1% share of the global Windows AI PC market, maintaining its leading position [2] - The company is confident in achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in PC revenue for the second half of FY2026, supported by strong supply chain management and long-term relationships with key component suppliers [2] - The AI infrastructure business is experiencing robust growth, particularly in cloud infrastructure and AI server revenue, which is seeing high double-digit growth [3] Financial Projections - Lenovo maintains its FY2026/27 profit forecasts, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3x for FY2026 and 8.0x for FY2027 [3] - The target price is set at HKD 14.8, reflecting a potential upside of 52% based on FY2026/27 earnings multiples [3]

Core Insights - The company reported FY25/26Q2 financial results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, and adjusted net profit of $512 million, up 25.18% [1] Group 1: IDG Smart Device Business Group - The IDG segment achieved revenue of $15.107 billion in FY25/26Q2, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.79% [1] - PC revenue was approximately $11.1 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 17.58%, outperforming IDC's reported global PC shipment growth of 10.32% for Q3 [1] - The company's AIPC accounted for 33% of global PC shipments, with a 30% share of domestic notebook shipments, marking a 3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, indicating accelerated market penetration [1] Group 2: ISG Infrastructure Solutions - The ISG segment reported revenue of $4.087 billion in FY25/26Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%, with AI server sales showing double-digit growth and a strong order backlog [2] - Revenue from liquid cooling technology surged by 154% year-on-year, while the operating loss for the ISG segment was reduced significantly by $53.485 million [2] - The gross margin improved slightly to 15.39%, up 0.66 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective management of rising storage costs due to a robust supply chain [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting revenues of $79.49 billion, $91.55 billion, and $105.24 billion for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with net profits of $1.67 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.43 billion respectively [3] - The strong growth in AI servers and the company's leading position in the PC market are key factors supporting this outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The PC industry is experiencing a resurgence, with Lenovo leading the market and AI integration opening new growth opportunities for PCs [1][24][51]. Group 1: Market Performance - Global PC shipments reached 75.9 million units in Q3 2025, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase and continuous growth for four consecutive quarters [1]. - Lenovo achieved a 25% market share in PC shipments for the first time, with total revenue reaching 146.4 billion RMB, a record for a single fiscal quarter [2][6]. - Lenovo's adjusted net profit grew by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating strong operational efficiency [12][13]. Group 2: Business Structure - Lenovo's revenue breakdown shows that Intelligent Devices (IDG) generated 108.1 billion RMB, accounting for 73.8% of total revenue, while Infrastructure Solutions (ISG) and Solutions and Services (SSG) contributed 29.3 billion RMB and 9 billion RMB, respectively [8]. - The AI segment has become a significant contributor, accounting for 30% of total revenue, reflecting a 13 percentage point increase year-on-year [3][35]. Group 3: AI Integration - AI is transforming Lenovo's business model, with AI PCs capturing 31.1% of the Windows AI PC market, reinforcing Lenovo's leadership [11]. - The company is pursuing a hybrid AI strategy, distributing computing power across edge, cloud, and endpoint layers, which differentiates it from competitors [37][39]. - Lenovo's AI PC sales have exceeded 2.8 million units, with a 30% share in the Chinese notebook market [40]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Lenovo anticipates continued strong demand for AI PCs, projecting a sustainable growth rate of 5%-10% in the global PC market [52]. - The company is entering a new growth cycle characterized by improved structure and higher quality, driven by the deep integration of AI technology and hardware [51].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant growth in data center infrastructure spending driven by AI training and inference cluster architectures, which also positively impacts the HPC (High-Performance Computing) architecture [1][2]. HPC-AI Market Overview - According to Hyperion Research, the global HPC spending over the past three years and future five-year forecasts indicate a robust market [2]. - The HPC-AI market is projected to generate $59.93 billion in total sales in 2024, reflecting a 23.5% growth compared to 2023, with on-premises HPC-AI systems contributing $50.39 billion (up 22.9%) and cloud HPC-AI systems contributing $9.54 billion (up 4.9%) [4][5]. Future Projections - For 2025, the overall HPC-AI market is expected to bring in $58.963 billion, a 17% increase from 2024, with cloud consumption at $12.38 billion and on-premises systems at $57.75 billion [5][6]. - The growth rate is anticipated to stabilize at around 7% to 8% annually by the end of the decade, which is still double the historical average [6]. Spending Breakdown - In 2024, cloud computing consumption will account for 15.9% of the HPC-AI product spending, with 30% of cloud spending allocated to storage, compared to 21.7% for on-premises HPC-AI centers [8]. - Services constitute a significant portion of the HPC-AI budget, primarily for system installation, maintenance, and technical support, while software accounts for only 5% of the total budget [8]. Revenue by Vendor - In 2024, the leading vendors in the HPC-AI market include HPE with $7.151 billion (28.2% market share), Dell Technologies with $3.916 billion (15.5%), and Lenovo with $1.450 billion (5.7%) [13][14]. - Non-traditional suppliers, referred to as Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs), have revenue nearly equal to HPE, indicating a competitive landscape [14]. Market Segmentation - The HPC-AI market is segmented into various price ranges, with the largest share (27.9%) coming from large HPC systems priced between $1 million and $10 million, while entry-level HPC systems (under $250,000) account for 24.3% [15]. Investment Trends - Investment in HPC-AI systems is accelerating, as evidenced by new supercomputers announced by the US Department of Energy, which are expected to stabilize revenue over time due to a shift towards cloud models [17].

因此，申万宏源维持"买入"评级。维持此前盈利预测，预计公司FY25/26-FY27/28财年实现收入794.9、 915.5、1052.4亿美元，实现归母净利润16.7、20.3、24.3亿美元，基于公司在PC市场的领先地位和AIPC 产品的不断推进，以及人工智能趋势下AI服务器的强劲增长，我们维持"买入"评级。 IDG智能设备业务集团：PC业务表现亮眼，AIPC加速渗透。FY25/26Q2IDG板块实现营业收入151.07亿 美元，同比+11.79%。根据IDC数据计算，PC收入约为111亿美元，同比增长17.58%，远高于IDC公布的 25Q3全球PC出货量同比增速10.32%。公司AIPC在全球市场出货量占整体PC出货量的33%；国内市场， 公司AIPC出货量占比笔记本总出货量的30%，较上一财季环比提升3pcts，AIPC加速渗透。PC市场整体 保持较高景气度，公司继续领跑行业。 ISG基础设施解决方案：AI服务器双位数高增，后续将维持高景气。FY25/26Q2ISG板块实现营业收入 40.87亿美元，同比+23.65%。拆分来看，AI服务器高两位数增长，订单储备情况良好；海神液冷技术收 入同比大增1 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 计算机 -18% 32% 82% HSCEI 联想集团 2025 年 11 月 22 日 联想集团 (00992) ——业绩超预期，AI 服务器维持高增 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.68 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8919.78 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 13.60/6.57 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,200.77 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 12,404.66 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9106 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 《联想集团（00992）点评：PC 复苏超预 期，AI 服务器高速增长》 2025/08/14 《联想集团（00992）深度：被低估的 ICT 全 栈 供 应 商 （ GenAI 系列之 59 ） 》 2025/05/28 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch. ...