分业务线来看，（1）IDG：实现收入151.1亿美元，同比增长11.8%，2025Q3联想/行业PC出货量同比增 长17.3%/9.4%（IDC数据），联想持续优于行业，或表明此前所预期的win11换机潮正逐步兑现。AI PC 出货量占比达到33%，估算当前联想AI PC均价为800-850美元，较普通PC均价提升明显，从而实现本轮 换机行情中量价起升。opm为7.29%，同比微降 0.04 pct；（2）ISG：实现收入40.87亿美元，同比增长 23.7%，AI服务器收入同比高双位数增长，需求保持强劲。opm为-2.7%，亏损率环比收窄，公司当前 CSP订单充足，规模效应有望逐步呈现，期待后续实现可持续性盈利；（3）SSG：收入25.56亿美元， 同比增长18.1%，发展韧性较强，递延收益36亿美元（同比增长17%）提升业务可预见性。opm为 22.34%，同比提升1.91 pcts。 据此，开源证券认为，联想有着丰富的零部件价格波动应对经验，同时公司也是市场上的大型买方，拥 有优于同行的议价能力与拿货能力，亦可通过新品推出、产品及客户结构调整、有限度的下游传导等方 式调节成本影响。 近日，联想集团公布截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The memory module industry is experiencing the most severe shortage in 20 years due to surging AI demand, with customers receiving only 30% of their orders, leading to significant price increases expected to last for at least two to three quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Memory Shortage Insights - The current memory shortage is not driven by economic cycles but by strong demand from AI, cloud data centers, and high-performance computing, compounded by production adjustments favoring DRAM over NAND Flash [1][2]. - Major electronic brands are elevating procurement discussions to the highest levels, with company leaders personally negotiating for memory supplies, yet availability remains extremely limited [1][2]. - DDR4 and DDR5 memory supplies are tight, with DDR3 prices having doubled from their lows, and DDR5 prices expected to rise more than DDR4 starting this quarter [2]. Group 2: Lenovo's Strategy - Lenovo is stockpiling memory components, increasing its inventory by approximately 50% compared to normal levels, to mitigate the impact of rising memory prices [3][4]. - This strategy positions Lenovo to maintain competitive pricing for its OEM PC and laptop products through 2026, potentially giving it an advantage over competitors who have not stockpiled [3][4]. - The surge in demand for DRAM chips, particularly from AI companies, has led to skyrocketing prices, with some memory kits exceeding the cost of a PS5 console [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Memory manufacturers are prioritizing supply to AI firms like NVIDIA, resulting in limited availability for other markets, and production increases are not anticipated to address the current shortages [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current price surge in memory could persist for up to ten years, with the market expected to remain volatile until at least the end of 2026 [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights Qingmu Technology (青木科技) as a leading expert in full-domain operation services and brand incubation, driven by data and technology [2][4][14] - The company has established a high-synergy business model encompassing operation services, brand incubation, and technical solutions, serving well-known brands across various sectors [2][4][14] - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.5%, 26.5%, and 23.0% respectively [4][14] Company Overview - Qingmu Technology was founded in 2009 and has focused on e-commerce operation since 2011, building a comprehensive service model that includes operation, brand incubation, and technology solutions [2][14] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with founders holding 39% of the shares, and a management team with over ten years of industry experience [2][14] - Revenue for 2024 and the first half of 2025 is projected at 1.15 billion and 670 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2% and 22.75% respectively [2][14] Competitive Advantages - Qingmu Technology's competitive edge lies in its data, technology, and brand matrix, which collectively enhance its operational value [3][4][14] - The data layer includes services across major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu, allowing the company to accumulate extensive user behavior and transaction data [3][14] - The technology layer features proprietary systems such as the Qingling AI platform and CRM, which streamline operations and reduce costs [3][14] Business Model and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its service model from a single service fee to a combination of service fees, distribution price differences, and equity returns, thus sharing in brand growth [4][14] - Qingmu Technology is diversifying its product categories beyond apparel to include trendy toys, beauty products, health consumer goods, and pet food, enhancing its growth potential [4][14] - The company aims to maintain its status as a top service provider on platforms like Tmall and Douyin while increasing its international operations, particularly in Southeast Asia [4][14] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in net profit, with expected figures of 1.31 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.59 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 45.2%, 40.4%, and 40.4% respectively [4][14] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same period are 50, 35, and 25 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a successful wave of PC upgrades driven by Windows 11, with stable profit margins reflecting supply chain resilience. Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 have been raised, indicating strong growth potential [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In FY2026Q2, the company reported revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and a non-GAAP net profit of $512 million, up 25.2%, with a net profit margin of 2.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The IDG segment generated revenue of $15.11 billion, growing 11.8% year-on-year, with Lenovo's PC shipment growth outpacing the industry at 17.3% compared to 9.4% [1]. - The ISG segment achieved revenue of $4.087 billion, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, with strong demand for AI servers, although it reported an operating profit margin of -2.7%, indicating a narrowing loss rate [1]. - The SSG segment's revenue reached $2.556 billion, up 18.1% year-on-year, with deferred revenue of $3.6 billion, reflecting a 17% increase and enhancing business predictability [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - The company demonstrates strong supply chain resilience, effectively managing price fluctuations in components due to its significant purchasing power and superior bargaining capabilities compared to peers [2]. - The stable performance of the IDG segment and the narrowing loss rate in the ISG segment serve as evidence of the company's ability to adapt to cost impacts through product and customer structure adjustments [2].

Core Insights - The company reported strong mid-year performance for FY2026, with revenue reaching $39.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at $850 million, up 40.5% [1] IDG Segment - The IDG business generated $28.57 billion in revenue for FY2026H1, reflecting a 14.6% year-on-year growth, with operating profit increasing by 13% and an operating margin of 7.2% [1] - The global market share for the company increased by 1.8 percentage points to 25.6%, achieving a historical high, and it leads the global Windows AI PC market [1] - In China, AI laptops with five key features accounted for 30% of total shipments, with higher average selling prices and profit margins for high-end products [1] - The smartphone segment saw strong performance from high-end models like edge and razr, with new device activations reaching record highs [1] ISG Segment - The ISG business reported $8.38 billion in revenue for FY2026H1, a 29.6% year-on-year increase, driven by cloud and enterprise infrastructure [2] - AI server business benefited from global AI training and inference demand, achieving high double-digit year-on-year revenue growth [2] - The Neptune liquid cooling system showed impressive performance, with first-quarter revenue growing double digits and second-quarter revenue increasing by triple digits, supported by over 100 patents [2] SSG Segment - The SSG business achieved a record revenue of $4.81 billion for FY2026H1, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 22% [2] - Revenue from operational services and project solutions increased to 58.9% of SSG business, marking a historical high [2] - TruScale platform orders saw triple-digit year-on-year growth, driven by the success of Device as a Service (DaaS) and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) initiatives [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company raised its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to $1.87 billion, $2.09 billion, and $2.33 billion respectively, up from previous estimates [3] - The price-to-earnings ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 9.0, 8.1, and 7.2 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

这推动联想PC市场份额从2017/18财年的35.5%，攀升到2024/25财年的40%。2025/26财年上半年，以 40.6%再次创下同期历史新高。 基础设施业务总收入在过去的两年半增长175%，联想服务器是中国市场成长最快的AI基础设施厂商。 在AI解决方案与服务方面，擎天对内逐步深入赋能联想业务模式变革，对外成为方案服务业务拓展 的"杀手锏"，带动联想登顶中国IT服务市场第一名。 11月20日到22日，联想中国群英会2025在乌镇举办。联想集团执行副总裁兼中国区总裁刘军表示，"人 工智能+"时代新机遇下，联想中国将坚守"混合式AI加速中国智能化转型"使命，全力打造超强装备库， 全面推进客户直营，并秉承"创业5.0"精神锤炼硅碳融合战队，擎动九天，智慧中国。 近七年，联想中国区客户直营模式下客户覆盖率达80%；PC市场份额稳居榜首，2025年上半财年攀升 至40.6%；非PC业务占比近半，成为"第二增长曲线"。 "我们的客户直营占比逐年提高，2025财年上半年达到80%，已经建立起高效客户直达通道。"刘军介绍 说，其中政企直接触达中国26万家最重要客户的90%；中小企业从零开始直接触达近千万客户；C端直 ...

"我们的客户直营占比逐年提高，2025财年上半年达到80%，已经建立起最高效的客户直达通道。"刘军说。 图为联想集团执行副总裁兼中国区总裁刘军。（联想集团提供） 非PC业务强势崛起，营收占比近半。刘军表示，非PC业务茁壮成长，占比已经从2017/18财年的不足20%，快速增长到现在的接近50%。这为联想中国区画 出了一条亮丽的第二增长曲线。其中，基础设施业务总收入在过去的两年半增长175%，联想服务器稳居市场第一阵营，并且是中国市场成长最快的AI基础 设施厂商。在AI解决方案与服务方面，擎天对内逐步深入赋能联想业务模式变革，对外成为方案服务业务拓展的"杀手锏"，带动联想登顶中国IT服务市场第 一名，且正不断拉大与第二名的差距。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月24日电（记者王艳刚）联想集团执行副总裁兼中国区总裁刘军在联想中国群英会2025上表示，面对"人工智能+"时代新机遇，联想中国将 坚守"混合式AI加速中国智能化转型"使命，全力打造超强装备库，全面推进客户直营。 图为联想集团执行副总裁兼中国区总裁刘军。（联想集团提供） 数据显示，2025/26财年上半财年，联想中国区营收同比增长24%，创下财年上半年收 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of 146.4 billion RMB for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025/26, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating a faster growth rate compared to revenue [1] - The CEO emphasized the company's strategic clarity, operational excellence, and continuous innovation as key drivers behind the record performance [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase, with PC market share surpassing 25% for the first time [1] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved approximately 29.3 billion RMB in revenue, up 24%, with significant growth in AI infrastructure [1] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported nearly 20% revenue growth, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [1] AI Business Growth - AI-related revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, a 13 percentage point increase year-on-year, highlighting AI's role as a core growth driver [2] - Lenovo's AI PC market share in the Windows AI PC segment is 31.1%, reinforcing user recognition of Lenovo's AI terminal experience [2] - AI server revenue saw high double-digit growth, with liquid cooling technology revenue increasing by 154% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The CEO stated the company will leverage its unique "global resources, local delivery" model to navigate uncertainties and seize opportunities presented by hybrid AI [3]

11月24日，联想小新发文宣布，联想互联生态成员新增苹果iOS设备，实现多端设备跨生态协同如一， 同时，全新超级互联3.0现已发布。 据了解，联想全新超级互联 3.0 交互界面换新，提供短信、屏幕共享、网络摄像头、电脑模式、键鼠穿 越、热点等功能，同时支持跨端文件管理。用户可通过"倒一倒"手势快速在设备间传输照片，并通过电 脑访问iPhone相册及信息中心。 责任编辑：李昂 ...

投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.680 | chumin@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.600/6.570 | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 流通港股(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.01 | | | win11 换机潮如期兑现，利润率稳健体现供应链韧性 win11 换机潮、AI PC 渗透率提升如期兑现，三大业务利润率稳定验证公司供应 链的韧性，我们上调 FY2026-2028 财年 non-gaap 归母净利润至 17.6/20.7/23.6 亿 美元（前次为 16.7/19.6/23.0 亿美元），同比增长 21.8%/ ...