Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for Q3, a year-on-year increase of over 18%, with adjusted net profit reaching 4.07 billion RMB, up 36%, indicating profit growth is double that of revenue growth [1] - The company faces rising component costs, particularly in storage and CPU prices, which have surged significantly, impacting overall supply chain dynamics [1][8] - AI continues to be a market focus, with major tech companies investing heavily, leading to sustained demand for computing infrastructure, which is expected to benefit Lenovo [1][3] Financial Performance - All major business segments of Lenovo achieved double-digit growth: IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) grew by 14%, ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) by 31%, and SSG (Solutions and Services Group) by 18% [2] - AI-related revenue, including AI PCs, smartphones, servers, and solutions, grew over 70% year-on-year, now accounting for one-third of the group's total revenue [2] - ISG revenue reached 36.7 billion RMB, a 31% increase, with AI server business growing nearly 60%, supported by a backlog of orders worth 15.5 billion USD [5] AI Market Dynamics - AI is viewed as a long-term growth driver, with predictions of continued high demand for AI infrastructure as companies invest heavily in AI capabilities [3][6] - Lenovo's AI server revenue grew by 59% in Q3, with significant orders for new GPU-based servers [3][5] - The company aims to enhance user experience in AI applications, targeting an increase in daily active users from 40-50% to 70-80% [4] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Lenovo's diversified supply chain and strong relationships with suppliers provide a competitive edge in managing rising costs and ensuring supply stability [1][8] - The company has successfully navigated supply chain challenges, with a strategy of global resources and local delivery, allowing for flexible resource allocation [8] - Lenovo's partnerships with major suppliers, such as NVIDIA, have resulted in significant growth in business volume, with ambitious future targets [8] Strategic Outlook - The company is transitioning from a PC-centric valuation to a multi-product and multi-business valuation, indicating a potential 60-70% increase in stock valuation based on current market comparisons [6] - AI is seen as a foundational technology that will drive future demand for smart devices and infrastructure, with Lenovo positioning itself as a leader in this space [9]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo has reported its best-ever performance amid rising storage prices, with AI revenue surpassing 30% for the first time, and CEO Yang Yuanqing has committed to sustainable double-digit growth [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, Lenovo achieved revenue of 157.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 18%, exceeding market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit grew by 36% year-on-year, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth [1] - The company anticipates that the global PC market may remain flat or slightly decline in terms of shipment volume, but revenue will continue to grow due to rising average prices [3] AI Revenue Growth - AI-related revenue increased by 72% year-on-year, accounting for 32% of total revenue, marking a significant shift in Lenovo's business model [1][2] - AI PC and AI server segments experienced high double-digit growth, while AI mobile and AI services saw triple-digit growth [2] Business Segments Performance - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported revenue exceeding 110 billion yuan, a 14.3% year-on-year increase [3] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) revenue reached 36.7 billion yuan, a 31% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high [4] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved double-digit growth for the 19th consecutive quarter [3] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Yang Yuanqing emphasized Lenovo's "scale advantage" and "diverse supply" capabilities, allowing the company to maintain stable supply and competitive costs despite rising component prices [4] - The company reported a 15% year-on-year increase in adjusted operating profit for the IDG segment, with PC shipments growing by 15% [4] Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo has initiated a strategic restructuring of the ISG, with a one-time restructuring cost of 285 million USD, focusing on AI-driven product development and sales capabilities [4][5] - The company aims to prepare for a shift in AI demand from training to inference, predicting that inference will account for 80% of future demand [5] Partnerships and Collaborations - Lenovo has strengthened partnerships with major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel, with collaborative projects reaching multi-billion dollar scales [6] - The company has launched an AI cloud super factory plan in collaboration with NVIDIA, aiming to quadruple the scale of their partnership over the next few years [6] Internal AI Adoption - Lenovo is actively integrating AI into its internal processes, with plans to increase AI usage from 20% to 30-40% in various departments over the next year [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo has reported its "historical best" performance despite rising storage prices, with AI revenue surpassing 30% for the first time, and CEO Yang Yuanqing has indicated a commitment to sustainable double-digit growth [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, Lenovo achieved revenue of 157.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 18%, exceeding market expectations [2]. - Adjusted net profit grew by 36%, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth [2]. AI Revenue Growth - AI-related revenue increased by 72% year-on-year, accounting for 32% of total revenue, marking a significant shift in Lenovo's business model [2][3]. - AI PC and AI server segments experienced high double-digit growth, while AI mobile and AI services saw triple-digit growth [3]. Supply Chain and Cost Management - Yang Yuanqing confirmed that Lenovo was not adversely affected by the shortage and price increases of memory supplies, maintaining higher profitability and faster growth than the market [2][5]. - The company anticipates that the global PC market may remain flat or slightly decline in terms of shipment volume, but revenue will continue to grow due to rising average prices [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy has led to double-digit growth across all three major business groups: IDG (Intelligent Devices Group), ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group), and SSG (Solutions and Services Group) [4]. - The ISG segment underwent a strategic restructuring, with a focus on AI-driven solutions, and is expected to achieve profitability soon [7]. Partnerships and Collaborations - Lenovo's collaboration with NVIDIA has quadrupled in scale over the past three to four years, with future goals to achieve similar growth [8][9]. - Partnerships with AMD and Intel focus on specific AI applications, contributing to significant business volumes [9]. AI Market Perspective - Yang Yuanqing addressed concerns about an AI investment bubble, asserting that while some areas may be overheated, AI as a whole represents an unstoppable trend [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo has reported its highest quarterly performance with revenue of 157.5 billion yuan and a net profit growth rate of 36%, driven by significant growth in AI-related revenue, which increased by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Lenovo's revenue reached 157.5 billion yuan, marking a historic high for a single quarter [1] - The net profit growth rate was 36%, with all three major business segments showing double-digit growth [1] - AI-related revenue grew by 72% year-on-year, contributing to 32% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Response to Storage Price Surge - The surge in storage chip prices is described as "unprecedented," driven by the explosive demand for AI model training from major tech companies [2] - Lenovo has implemented a 5% expense control strategy to manage rising costs without cutting R&D or growth investments [2][3] - As of December 2025, Lenovo's inventory reached 9.077 billion USD, up nearly 1.2 billion USD from March, with a significant portion of this inventory being locked in [3] Group 3: AI Strategy and Market Position - Lenovo is positioned as a "seller of shovels" in the AI race, benefiting from the capital expenditures of major tech companies on AI infrastructure [5] - The company has seen a 31% year-on-year growth in its Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), with AI server revenue experiencing high double-digit growth [5] - Lenovo's AI server orders have reached 15.5 billion USD, indicating strong demand [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Valuation - Lenovo's market valuation is currently below 10 times earnings, while AI service providers typically exceed 20 times [7] - The company is undergoing a strategic restructuring aimed at optimizing costs and product mix, with a target of saving 1.4 billion yuan annually over the next three years [8] - There is a growing recognition of the value of AI at the endpoint, with Lenovo aiming to leverage its hardware to provide integrated AI services [9][11] Group 5: User Experience and AI Integration - Lenovo is focusing on enhancing user experience by optimizing its AI agent, "Lenovo Qira," to provide a unified personal assistant experience across devices [6][12] - The strategy involves integrating various independent models into Lenovo's AI agent, allowing users to interact seamlessly without switching between different models [13] - Lenovo's approach emphasizes the importance of integration capabilities as a competitive barrier in the evolving AI landscape [14]

AI 驱动价值跃迁，生态闭环筑牢增长确定性 联想集团(0992) ——联想集团 FY26Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 顺应 AI 从训练向推理转型趋势，联想集团构建终端、算力、服务生态闭环，营收与 利润增长显著，实现从 PC 巨头向 AI 生态核心枢纽的转型。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 56,864 | 69,077 | 80,456 | 87,789 | 94,819 | | 同比增长（%） | -8.2% | 21.5% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" [10] Core Insights - Lenovo's revenue performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong orders for AI servers and robust supply chain resilience, which is expected to stabilize profit margins [6][7] - The company has adjusted its FY2026 earnings forecast upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 performance, maintaining FY2027-2028 earnings projections [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is projected at $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q3, Lenovo reported revenue of $22.204 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit reached $589 million, exceeding expectations of $463 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [7] - Breakdown of revenue by business segments: - IDG: Revenue of $15.755 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, with PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [7] - ISG: Revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, supported by AI infrastructure orders [7][8] - SSG: Revenue of $2.652 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% [8] Earnings and Valuation Metrics - Projected revenues for FY2026 are $81.289 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for FY2026-2028 are $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [9] - The current P/E ratios are projected at 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively [9]

本财季，联想人工智能相关收入同比增长72%，占集团总收入的32%。智能设备业务方面，个人电脑全 球市场份额达25.3%，连续两季成为近三十年来全球PC市场份额突破25%的唯一供应商，智能手机销量 及激活量创历史新高；基础设施方案业务收入同比增长31%，方案服务业务收入同比增长18%。 北京商报讯（记者 陶凤 王天逸）近日，联想集团披露2025/26财年第三季度（截至2025年12月31日）未 经审核业绩。财报显示，本财季集团收入同比增长18%至222亿美元，创历史新高。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's revenue performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong orders for AI servers and robust supply chain resilience, which is expected to stabilize profit margins [6][7] - The company has adjusted its FY2026 earnings forecast upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 performance, while maintaining FY2027-2028 earnings projections [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is projected to be $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q3, Lenovo reported revenue of $22.204 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was $589 million, exceeding expectations of $463 million, and showing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [7] - Breakdown of revenue by business segments: - IDG: Revenue of $15.755 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, with PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [7] - ISG: Revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, supported by AI infrastructure orders [7][8] - SSG: Revenue of $2.652 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% [8] Valuation Metrics - Projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026-2028 are $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of $22.2 billion for Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/2026, with a year-on-year growth of over 18% and a net profit increase of 36%, indicating strong operational performance across all business segments [2][6]. Business Performance Summary - All business segments of Lenovo achieved double-digit revenue growth in Q3, with personal computer sales continuing to outperform the market for ten consecutive quarters, leading to a historic market share high for the fiscal year 2025 [2]. - The ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) segment generated $5.2 billion in revenue, marking a year-on-year growth of over 31%, and is approaching profitability [5]. - The SSG (Solutions and Services Group) reported an 18% year-on-year revenue increase, achieving a 22.5% operating profit margin [2]. AI Revenue Growth - AI-related revenue for Lenovo grew by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, highlighting the increasing importance of AI in the company's business model [3][4]. ISG Segment Insights - The ISG segment's revenue growth is attributed to structural optimization in enterprise servers, data centers, and industry solutions, with a focus on a dual-track strategy of cloud and enterprise infrastructure [7]. - The CSP (Cloud Service Provider) business saw a 37.1% revenue increase, while the E/SMB (Enterprise/Small and Medium Business) segment also achieved double-digit growth [7]. - Lenovo's strategic restructuring in the ISG segment aims to enhance productivity and competitiveness, with an expected annual net cost saving of approximately $200 million over the next three years [5][17]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market for AI computing is rapidly evolving, with a predicted shift from training to local data center and edge inference, presenting significant opportunities for Lenovo [10][20]. - The global AI infrastructure market is expected to triple by 2028, driven by the increasing demand for AI-ready infrastructure [10]. - Lenovo's focus on local inference capabilities aligns with the anticipated growth in AI applications, emphasizing the importance of edge computing for businesses [19][20]. Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain Management - Lenovo's global and localized supply chain management has provided resilience and efficiency, allowing for cost control and improved delivery times [15][16]. - The company has strategically stockpiled storage chips to ensure production continuity through 2026, mitigating potential supply chain disruptions [17]. Long-term Strategic Vision - Lenovo's commitment to innovation and operational excellence is reflected in its ability to transition ISG from a loss-making phase to a path of profitability, with expectations of breakeven by the end of the fiscal year 2025/2026 [6][23]. - The company's long-term strategy emphasizes the importance of AI as a fundamental direction rather than a bubble, focusing on practical applications and infrastructure development [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.00, corresponding to a 12.0x FY27E PE ratio [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 22.2 billion for 3QFY26, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 7% [1]. - Non-HKFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached USD 589 million, up 36% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of USD 463 million by 27% [1]. - The growth was driven by a rising demand for hybrid AI solutions, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 32% of total revenue, an increase of 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company is expected to leverage its scale and supply chain management capabilities to mitigate the impact of rising component prices, particularly in the storage segment [2]. Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - IDG revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to USD 15.76 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.3% [2]. - The company's global PC market share reached a historic high of 25.3%, up 1.0 percentage point year-over-year, maintaining a 5 percentage point lead over the second-largest competitor [2]. - AI PC penetration exceeded 30% and continues to rise, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG revenue grew by 31% year-over-year to USD 5.18 billion, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3]. - AI server business revenue saw high double-digit year-over-year growth, with a project pipeline of USD 15.5 billion [3]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 300% year-over-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3]. SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG revenue rose by 18% year-over-year to USD 2.65 billion, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [4]. - Projects and solutions, along with operational services, accounted for approximately 60% of SSG's total revenue [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects an increase in Non-HKFRS net profit for FY26/27/28 by 8.5%/8.8%/7.0% to USD 1.80 billion, USD 2.03 billion, and USD 2.24 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 25.0%, 12.6%, and 10.4% [5]. - Non-HKFRS EPS is expected to be USD 0.13, USD 0.15, and USD 0.17 for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively [5].