港股煤炭股持续走低，中煤能源(01898.HK)跌超4%，兖矿能源(01171.HK)跌超3%，中国神华 (01088.HK)、南戈壁(01878.HK)等跟跌。 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 74.67%, Gree Power (01330) at 70.01%, and China Shenhua (01088) at 66.95% [1] - The companies with the largest increase in holding amounts over the last five trading days are BYD Company (01211) with an increase of 14.05 billion, E Fund (02800) with 6.93 billion, and China Life (02628) with 2.58 billion [1] - The companies with the largest decrease in holding amounts over the last five trading days are China Mobile (00941) with a decrease of 1.63 billion, Pop Mart (09992) with 859 million, and Anta Sports (02020) with 678 million [1] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) holds 10.363 billion shares, representing 74.67% [1] - Gree Power (01330) holds 283 million shares, representing 70.01% [1] - China Shenhua (01088) holds 2.262 billion shares, representing 66.95% [1] - Other notable companies include Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection (01065) at 64.66% and Hongye Futures (03678) at 63.53% [1] Recent Increases in Holdings - BYD Company (01211) saw an increase of 14.05 billion in holding amount, with a change of 11.621 million shares [1] - E Fund (02800) increased by 6.93 billion, with a change of 26.992 million shares [1] - China Life (02628) increased by 2.58 billion, with a change of 11.086 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include China Construction Bank (00939) and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) [1] Recent Decreases in Holdings - China Mobile (00941) experienced a decrease of 1.63 billion, with a change of 1.875 million shares [1] - Pop Mart (09992) decreased by 859 million, with a change of 334.77 thousand shares [1] - Anta Sports (02020) saw a decrease of 678 million, with a change of 727.23 thousand shares [1] - Other companies with notable decreases include Agricultural Bank of China (01288) and New China Life Insurance (01336) [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of China Shenhua reached 38.50 yuan as of July 30, 2025, with an increase of 1.80% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day was 1.269 billion yuan, with a fluctuation of 2.70% [1] - China Shenhua operates in the coal industry, covering coal production, electricity, railway transportation, and coal chemical sectors, making it a leading integrated energy enterprise in China with a complete industrial chain [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that southbound funds have been continuously increasing their holdings in China Shenhua's Hong Kong stocks, with a market value increase of 20.889 billion HKD and an increase of 5.92 million shares as of July 28 [1] - On July 30, the net inflow of main funds into China Shenhua was 17.1458 million yuan [2]

证券之星消息，7月30日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日上涨0.77%，中国神华领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3615.72，上涨0.17%。深证成指报收于11203.03，下跌0.77%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日煤炭开采板块主力资金净流出4.13亿元，游资资金净流入1.34亿元，散户资金净 流入2.79亿元。煤炭开采板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600546 山煤国际 | | 3124.86万 | 6.45% | -2315.99万 | -4.78% | -808.88万 | -1.67% | | 601088 | 中国神农 | 1714.58万 | 1.35% | 1172.81万 | 0.92% | -2887.40万 | -2.28% | | 601898 中煤能源 | | 1536.09万 | 3.74% | 83.34万 | 0.20% | -1 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have become significant participants in the Hong Kong stock market, holding 18.24% of the total shares of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, with a total market value of 55,994.41 billion HKD [1]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Holdings - As of July 29, southbound funds held a total of 4,563.87 million shares in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, representing 18.24% of the total share capital [1]. - The market value of shares held by southbound funds accounts for 13.77% of the total market capitalization of the stocks [1]. - There are 222 stocks where southbound funds hold over 20% of the total share capital, while 135 stocks have a holding ratio between 10% and 20% [1]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The stocks with over 20% holdings by southbound funds are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 43, 35, and 32 stocks respectively [2]. - Among the stocks with the highest southbound fund holdings, China Telecom leads with 74.69%, followed by Green Power Environmental and China Shenhua with 69.97% and 66.91% respectively [2]. Group 3: Characteristics of High Holdings - A majority of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 125 out of 222 stocks (56.31%) having over 20% holdings being AH shares [1]. - The distribution of holdings shows that 14.81% of stocks with 10% to 20% holdings are also AH shares [1].

| 公司名称 | 持股数量 | 最新持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | | 中国电信(00728) | 103.66亿股 | 74.69% | | 绿色动力环保(01330) | 2.83亿股 | 69.97% | | 中国神华(01088) | 22.60亿股 | 66.91% | | 天津创业环保股份(01065) | 2.20亿股 | 64.57% | | 弘业期货(03678) | 1.59亿股 | 63.78% | | 新天绿色能源(00956) | 11.68亿股 | 63.49% | | 凯盛新能(01108) | 1.58亿股 | 63.22% | | 南方恆生科技(03033) | 55.92亿股 | 62.77% | | 白云山(00874) | 1.38亿股 | 62.70% | | 復星医药(02196) | 3.43亿股 | 62.21% | | 浙江世宝(01057) | 1.31亿股 | 60.36% | | 昊天国际建投(01341) | 46.54亿股 | 60.07% | | 京基金融国际(01468) | 10.42亿股 | 59.98% | | 东方证 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) opened up 70 points and peaked at nearly 300 points before retracting gains, closing up 0.40% at 25,490.45 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59%, closing at 5,644.52 points [1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 149.725 billion [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector, including Chinese securities firms and insurance companies, showed strong performance [1] - Innovative drug concepts also performed well, contributing to the overall market gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as coal and non-ferrous metals experienced declines [1] Notable Stocks - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) surged by 13.78% after reaching an agreement with China Tobacco International to maintain its position in the domestic duty-free cigarette business [1] - China Ping An (02318.HK) increased by 3.21% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) rose by 15.43% [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) saw a decline of 1.85% [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong coal stocks collectively declined, with Mongolian Coking Coal (00975.HK) dropping nearly 6% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) fell over 3% [1] - Other companies such as China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) and China Coal Energy (01898.HK) also experienced declines [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]