Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that China Resources Gas (01193) experienced a 30% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, suggesting potential management issues as it underperformed compared to peers, which may lead investors to demand a higher risk premium [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a 30% decline in net profit year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - As the last city gas company to announce its half-year results, the performance of China Resources Gas was notably weaker across almost all metrics compared to its industry peers [1] Analyst Adjustments - Daiwa has revised its earnings per share forecasts for the company downwards by 19% to 25% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for China Resources Gas has been lowered from HKD 19.9 to HKD 16 [1] - The rating for the company has been set to "Sell" [1]

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，华润燃气(01193)上半年纯利同比跌30%，作为最后一家公布上半 年业绩的城市燃气公司，华润燃气几乎在所有方面的表现逊于同业，这意味着公司或存在管理问题，这 可能会促使投资者要求更高的风险溢价。该行对其在2025年至2027年每股盈测下调至19%~25%，同时 将其目标价由19.9港元下调至16港元，其评级为"沽售"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in raw gas demand leading to a minor rise in US gas prices, while European storage advancements have contributed to a decrease in gas prices [4][9]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics indicate a modest increase in raw gas demand, with US natural gas market prices rising by 3.3% week-on-week as of August 27, 2025 [16]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing integration of Jiufeng Energy and the gradual implementation of pricing reforms across the country, which are expected to enhance profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [35]. Price Tracking - As of August 29, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +3.3%, European TTF -6.6%, East Asia JKM -2.9%, China LNG ex-factory price 0%, and China LNG CIF price -6.2% [9][14]. - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,127 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 3.5% to 1,025 billion cubic feet per day [16]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the storage pace in Europe is slower than expected, leading to a week-on-week decrease in European gas prices by 6.6% [17]. - In China, the apparent consumption of natural gas from January to July 2025 increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 246.1 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [22][27]. Pricing Progress - The report states that 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing reforms, with an average price increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [35]. - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation is expected to lower costs for downstream users and promote industry growth [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing reforms, particularly highlighting New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [4][35]. - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao [4].

投资要点： 事件：华润燃气公布2025 年上半年业绩：实现营业收入497.85 亿港元，同比下降4.4%。股东应占净利 润为24.03 亿港元，同比减少30.5%，低于我们的预期。公司拟派中期股息30 港仙/股，同比提升5港仙/ 股。 工商业销气量下降，毛差持续修复。1H25 公司零售天然气销气量207.6 亿方，同比下降0.69%，其中居 民、工业、商业气量分别同比+4.2%、-2.2%、-2.6%。1H25 公司销气毛差达0.55 元/m3，同比增长0.01 元/m3。公司深耕核心城市市场，居民气顺价具有先导和示范效果，带动公司毛差稳步提升。居民气量 增长及毛差提升部分弥补工商业气量下滑的影响，1H25 公司天然气销售业绩达40.98 亿港元（含加气站 业绩），同比下降13.70%。长期来看，公司可通过进一步挖掘"城中村"改造带来的居民用户开发契机， 同时继续积极开发工商业客户，各类新开发用户未来每年贡献气量8.4 亿方以上。主营销气业务量利均 具提升空间，我们看好公司销气业务规模持续扩张，盈利能力持续改善。公司资源渠道持续扩张，资源 池建设持续加速。公司稳定三大油基本盘，2025 年增加合同气量4.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with a revenue of HKD 49.8 billion, down 4% YoY, and a net profit of HKD 2.403 billion, down 30% YoY, primarily due to a decline in connection numbers and comprehensive service revenue, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 natural gas retail volume was 20.8 billion cubic meters, down 0.7% YoY, with commercial and industrial gas volumes affected by a warm winter, decreasing by 3% and 2% respectively [1] - Retail gas gross margin was HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, up HKD 0.01 YoY, with 831,000 new residential connections, down 19% YoY, and comprehensive service revenue of HKD 1.45 billion, down 18% YoY [1] Development Trends - The company adjusted multiple growth indicators for 2025, including gas volume growth (low single-digit growth vs. previous guidance of +4-5% YoY), connection numbers (2.1-2.2 million vs. previous 2.3-2.5 million), and comprehensive service revenue (mid-low single-digit growth vs. previous +20-30% YoY) [1] - Capital expenditure for acquisitions was adjusted to HKD 300 million for the year, down from HKD 500 million previously, while maintaining a gross margin growth guidance of HKD 0.01 per cubic meter to HKD 0.54 per cubic meter [1] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns, with a guidance for total dividends in 2025 not to be lower than HKD 0.95 per share, implying a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on current stock price [2] - A stock buyback plan was announced for the end of 2024, with a scale of no less than 1.98% of total share capital, which is expected to further improve shareholder returns [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing pressure on connection numbers, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8.2% and 10.2% to HKD 3.767 billion and HKD 4.110 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11.7x for 2025 and 10.7x for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 7.4% to HKD 25, reflecting a potential upside of 31.2% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price reduced to HKD 16.50, indicating a potential downside of 13.4% from the current price of HKD 19.05 [1][6][16]. Core Views - The company faced higher-than-expected operational pressures in the first half of the year, leading to a significant decline in net profit by 30.5% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2][6]. - Despite the disappointing performance, the company increased its interim dividend by 20% to HKD 0.3 per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. - The company anticipates a rebound in retail gas sales and comprehensive service revenue in the second half of the year, with a projected 1.1% year-on-year increase in retail gas sales for 2025 [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 101,272 million in 2023, HKD 102,676 million in 2024, and HKD 102,403 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.3% in 2023 but a decline of 0.3% in 2025 [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 5,224 million in 2023 to HKD 3,846 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.3% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be HKD 1.79 in 2023, remaining flat in 2024, and decreasing to HKD 1.66 in 2025 [3][18]. Operational Data - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 49,785 million in the first half of 2025, down 4.4% year-on-year, with gas sales contributing HKD 44,298 million [7][8]. - The retail gas volume is projected to grow to 10,442 million cubic meters in 2025, with a slight increase in gross margin to RMB 0.55 per cubic meter [9][10]. - The number of new residential connections is expected to be adjusted down to 2.1 million for 2025, from an earlier estimate of 2.3 million [6][10].

上 市 公 司 公用事业 2025 年 08 月 29 日 华润燃气 (01193) ——气量承压毛差修复 分红及回购提供价值 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 19.05 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8916.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 35.20/18.95 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 440.82 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,314.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0957 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -23% 27% 77% 08/28 09/28 10/28 11/28 12/28 01/28 02/28 03/31 04/30 05/31 06/30 07/31 HSCEI 华润燃气 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 | | 2023 | 2024 ...

该行预计，今年下半年华润燃气盈利将较上半年下降52%，主要是会计成本通常会在下半年大幅增加。 经业绩调整后，该行将集团在2025至2027年盈利预测下调18%至19%。 中银国际发布研报称，华润燃气(01193)上半年净利润同比下降30%至24亿元，低于预期，主要源于高于 预期的销售、行政及管理费用及其综合服务业务表现不佳。该行表示，为了回馈股东，华润燃气计划维 持全年股息不变，并将在今年内回购最多3%的股份，故将其目标价下调至23.38港元，维持"买入"评 级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，华润燃气(01193)上半年净利润同比下降30%至24亿元，低于 预期，主要源于高于预期的销售、行政及管理费用及其综合服务业务表现不佳。该行表示，为了回馈股 东，华润燃气计划维持全年股息不变，并将在今年内回购最多3%的股份，故将其目标价下调至23.38港 元，维持"买入"评级。 该行预计，今年下半年华润燃气盈利将较上半年下降52%，主要是会计成本通常 会在下半年大幅增加。经业绩调整后，该行将集团在2025至2027年盈利预测下调18%至19%。 该信息由智通财经网提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi indicates that while China Resources Gas (01193) may experience short-term stock price volatility due to negative performance, its year-to-date performance has largely reflected industry challenges. The earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 15%, 7%, and 3% respectively, with the target price lowered from HKD 28.5 to HKD 21. Despite these adjustments, the potential for recovery remains, and the rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1]. Group 1 - China Resources Gas reported weak performance in the first half of the year, primarily impacted by cyclical headwinds in its core gas business, which accounts for 74% of EBIT [1]. - The comprehensive service business (CSB) significantly underperformed expectations, contributing to the overall weak results [1]. - Although the interim dividend increased year-on-year, management did not commit to raising the full-year dividend [1].