| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 101762 | 102676 | 96378 | 99925 | 103133 | | 同比(%) | 7.47 | 0.90 | (6.13) | 3.68 | 3.21 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 5224 | 4088 | 4464 | 4905 | 5376 | | 同比(%) | 10.36 | (21.74) | 9.19 | 9.89 | 9.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 2.26 | 1.77 | 1.93 | 2.12 | 2.32 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.28 | 13.13 | 12.03 | 10.94 | 9.99 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 华润燃气（01193.HK） 2024 年年报点评：业绩承压，分红比例稳增 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 华润燃气（01193.HK） 2024 年年报点评：业绩承压，分红比例稳增 2025 年 04 月 01 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 101762 | 102676 | 96378 | 99925 | 103133 | | 同比(%) | 7.47 | 0.90 | (6.13) | 3.68 | 3.21 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 5224 | 4088 | 4464 | 4905 | 5376 | | 同比(%) | 10.36 | (21.74) | 9.19 | 9.89 | 9.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 2.26 | 1.77 | 1.93 | 2.12 | 2.32 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.28 | 13.13 | 12.03 | 10.94 | 9.99 | [Table_T ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 燃气 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 28.20 | 港元 | 20.80↓ | -26.2% | | | 华润燃气 (1193 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年营运及盈利增长均承压，未来盈利结构需时再平衡 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万港元) | 101,272 | 102,676 | 105,325 | 107,837 | 111,287 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | | 净利润 (百万港元) | 5,224 | 4,088 | 4,381 | 4,692 | 4,997 | | 每股盈利 (港元) | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.89 | 2.03 | 2.16 | | 同比增长 (%) ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 零售：零售气规模稳健增长，盈利能力大幅改善 事件 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年实现营业额 1026.76 亿港币，同比增加 1.4%； 实现核心利润 41.48 亿港币，同比增长 0.02%；实现公司拥有人应占溢利 40.88 亿港币，同比减少 21.7%。 点评 销气量规模与销气结构方面，2024 年公司燃气总销量为 399.1 亿方，同比 增长 2.9%，其中居民/工业/商业的销气量规模分别为 100.4/204.2/85.2 亿 方，同比增速分别为 6.3%/1.5%/3.8%。其中受到暖冬影响的气量超 2 亿方。 其中金属制品业、化学原料和化学制品制造业以及农林牧渔业是工业气量 增幅位居前三的行业。毛差方面，2024 年公司的平均销气成本为 2.89 元/ 方，同比下降 0.1 元/方。随着采购成本的下降与居民顺价的持续推进，2024 年公司全年销气毛差达到 0.53 元/方，同比提升 0.02 元/方。在气量和毛差 共同恢复的推动下，公司销气业务溢利达到 79.75 亿港元，同比增长 8.6%。 新增接驳用户规模有所放缓，旧房用户占比提升 2024 年，受房地 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 燃气Ⅱ 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 31 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | | | | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 月 28 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 28.20 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | | 35.20/19.50 | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 65,255.16 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 65,255.16 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 51.71 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 华润燃气(01193.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——暖冬及 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1193 HK 恒生指数 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万港元) | 101,272 | 102,676 | 105,325 | 107,837 | 111,287 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | | 净利润 (百万港元) | 5,224 | 4,088 | 4,381 | 4,692 | 4,997 | | 每股盈利 (港元) | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.89 | 2.03 | 2.16 | | 同比增长 (%) | -12.3 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 6.5 | | 前EPS预测值 (港元) | | | 2.81 | 3.04 | | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -32. ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：1193） 截至二零二四年十二月三十一日止年度的末期業績 | | 二零二四年 | 二零二三年 | 增加╱ （減少） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 營業額（百萬港元） | 102,676 | 101,272 | 1.4% | | 核心利潤*（百萬港元） | 4,148 | 4,147 | 0.02% | | 本公司擁有人應佔溢利（百萬港元） | 4,088 | 5,224 | (21.7)% | | 每股全年核心股息△（港元） | 0.95 | 0.9185 | 3.4% | | # 每股全年非核心股息（港元） | – | 0.2384 | N/A | | 燃氣總銷量（百萬立方米） | 39,907 | 38,784 | 2.9% | | * | 撇除視同出售合營和聯營公司的收益、兩年匯率波動影響之本公司擁有人應佔溢利。 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a focus on its core gas assets and a solid dividend logic [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a national leader in city gas, backed by China Resources Group, with a significant presence in first- and second-tier cities, enhancing its core asset attributes [9][17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins due to lower gas prices and improved sales pricing mechanisms, which are expected to support revenue growth [12][42]. - The company’s cash flow has significantly improved, with a notable increase in operating cash flow and a reduction in capital expenditures, indicating a strong potential for dividend growth [22][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of March 5, 2025, was HKD 26.10, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,395.74 million [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is HKD 55.63 billion, HKD 61.72 billion, and HKD 67.65 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [6][10]. - The expected dividend yields for 2024-2026 are 4.6%, 5.1%, and 5.6% based on the current stock price [6][10]. Business Overview - The company operates 276 city gas projects, with a retail gas volume increasing from 1.371 billion cubic meters in 2008 to 38.784 billion cubic meters in 2023, maintaining a market share of 9.83% in 2023 [17][18]. - The revenue structure has shifted, with gas sales becoming the primary profit driver, accounting for 56.15% of tax-preferred profits in 2023 [18][20]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The operating cash flow reached HKD 10.16 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 133.4%, with a free cash flow of HKD 1.9 billion in the first half of 2024 [22][24]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 29.8% in 2016 to 50.3% in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.15% in dividends per share since 2008 [25][60]. Strategic Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in economically developed regions, benefiting from high population density and industrial clustering, which supports gas sales growth [38][40]. - The report highlights the potential for further market consolidation and growth in the city gas sector, driven by government policies promoting mergers and acquisitions [40][46]. Risk Management - The company has managed to reduce its reliance on connection profits, with a significant increase in comprehensive service and energy business profits, which helps mitigate risks associated with declining connection revenues [12][53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 26.75 and a target value of HKD 34.20 [4][248]. Core Insights - The company is a leading urban gas provider in China, with a strong focus on city gas operations and a significant market share, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in gas sales from 2008 to 2023 [9][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of LNG prices and the implementation of pricing policies that will enhance profitability [9][248]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial health, with a return on equity (ROE) consistently above 10% and a dividend payout ratio increasing to 50.3% in 2023, indicating strong shareholder returns [9][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is backed by China Resources Group and has been deeply involved in the urban gas sector for over 20 years, ranking among the top three in gas sales nationwide [21][23]. - As of 2024H1, the company operates 276 urban gas projects across 25 provinces, with a coverage of 97.08 million users [31][39]. 2. Pricing and Profitability - The company has seen a recovery in profitability due to the stabilization of gas prices and the implementation of a pricing mechanism that aligns sales prices with procurement costs [9][160]. - The average selling price of gas in 2023 was HKD 3.50 per cubic meter, with a gross margin of HKD 0.51 per cubic meter, showing improvement from previous years [160][248]. 3. Business Segments - Gas sales accounted for 82% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant contribution from the connection business, which, despite its smaller share, has a high profit margin [55][241]. - The comprehensive service segment has been growing rapidly, with revenues reaching HKD 40.45 billion in 2023, driven by kitchen and heating services [202][204]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 50 billion, HKD 57 billion, and HKD 63 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 2.17, HKD 2.44, and HKD 2.73 [9][243]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in gross margins, with expected improvements in the gas sales segment due to favorable pricing policies [239][240]. 5. Market Dynamics - The urban gas market in China is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing urbanization and the demand for cleaner energy sources [97][106]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strategic focus on expanding its service offerings and enhancing customer engagement through innovative service models [207][212].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 12x for 2025 and a dividend yield of 4.5% [106] Core Views - The company's profitability has gradually recovered in recent years, with the main gas sales business accounting for 71% of profits in the first half of 2024 [7] - The global natural gas market is rebalancing after the supply shocks of 2022-2023, but geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather continue to cause price volatility [9] - China's natural gas import dependency has increased to 42% in 2023, with LNG accounting for 61% of imports, making international gas prices more influential on domestic pricing [12] - The company is gradually building its own natural gas resource pool, which is expected to optimize its gas source structure and reduce procurement costs [36] - The company's dividend payout ratio has steadily increased from 18% in 2011 to 50% in 2023, with further room for growth as capital expenditures shrink and operating cash flow improves [45] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is expected to grow from HKD 101.3 billion in 2023 to HKD 112.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 3.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 5.2 billion in 2023 to HKD 6.4 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% [1] - Gross margin is forecast to rise from 18.2% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2026, while ROE remains stable around 11% [1] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 2.30 in 2023 to HKD 2.81 in 2026, with a forward PE ratio declining from 13.4x to 11.0x [1] Industry Analysis - Natural gas accounted for 8.5% of China's primary energy consumption in 2023, significantly lower than the global average of 23%, indicating substantial growth potential [22] - China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 600 billion cubic meters by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.2% from 2023 [52] - The global LNG trade volume is projected to increase from 400 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 500 billion cubic meters by 2025 [8] - China's natural gas consumption structure is shifting, with industrial and residential consumption accounting for 40% and 30% respectively in 2023 [23] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation charging businesses, with comprehensive energy service revenue reaching HKD 1.64 billion in 2023, up 73% YoY [78] - The company is actively participating in urban village renovation projects and "pingji liangyong" infrastructure construction, which could boost its penetration rate in existing projects [28] - The company is optimizing its gas source structure through its own LNG receiving station, which is expected to reduce procurement costs and improve flexibility [36] - The company is expanding its integrated services business, with revenue from this segment growing 125% YoY to HKD 2.7 billion in 2023 [69]